/biz/ - Business & Finance

You're about 6 months late on metals but yeah good movie

>>20808472
>6 months late
I believe that it's only a start.

>>20808438
What happened in 08 isn't what's happening now.

>>20808764
What's happening now? A lad I know who works in finance says today's fundamentals are far better.

>>20808764
And im not saying that it's the same. It's different but shit will hit the fan i believe.

>>20808987
Do we short america?

>>20809062
buy gold/silver/crypto

>>20809062
Ill just buy gold and silver and wait. When it will go down ill simply get up. If not than i just bought stacks for day D. Thats it.

fuck trump tho

>>20809546
Enjoy four more years

>>20809572
And i will. It's benefitial for my pocket.

>>20808438
Tbh its one of the rare movies I am rewatching on a yearly basis. Not only due the subject it covered but fuck me Ryan Gosling shouldve gotten an Oscar for the pitching scene with his quant-ti-ta-tive.
>>20808826
It really depends which fundamentals we are talking about; US banks are far less leveraged than they were in early 2000's ( European Banks are probably in the bigger clusterfuck than they were due 30-40 leverage ).
Main issue nowadays is the massive debt from the past 12 years caused by Quantitative easing and insanely low interest rates, For the futher reference check out Japanese asset bubble in 1990 and comparison of earning multiples from dotcom bubble to current stock multiples ( Sadly to say but yes, nowadays the stocks seem to be more overvalued than they were back then )
>>20809062
Many people I have spoken with, most of them fundamental investors are getting ready for the potential drop; certain median I have deducted was that the proper time to start buying for the longer haul would be S&P drop to 1800 levels.
>>20808472
6 months late? Gold broke out early last summer and considering how it has behaved in the past regarding trend duration, the bull run of gold may be several year long.

Up to this moment I firmly believe shits about to hit the fan after the election. There are a few reasons: Trump can not afford recession before election; if FED continues to print money, dollar will start getting weaker and weaker ( even now the dollar has been getting weaker ) - I believe US will rather go through serious recession than allow dollar inflation and drop of US credibility. As Malkiel said - market is efficient, its just sometimes reflects the current economic state with a delay.

>>20808438
>America is going to fucking crash, right?

Everyone is betting on it, so I expect another century of American dominance.

>>20810383
How is everyone betting on it?
NASDAQ is soaring, whole S&P is getting carried by top tech companies and retards are massively buying bankrupted companies. There is certain truth about recessions and market crashes coming when least expected, as Taleb noted, but majority is still definitely positive.

>>20810333
Checked and based.

>>20808438
>>20810333
>not watching the high IQ version of the big short

>>20810512
Everyone knows its a house of cards though, even if they're still content riding the wave of BRRR'd money and pumped assets. I think all the big players are watching closely with the hands hovering over the big red panic button, trying to be the first one off the boat when it starts to sink

>>20810333
I disagree with nearly all of your MSM talking points. The fed has already demonstrated that it will not let the stock market crash because like the left has demonstrated over and over this year, all it cares about is optics. The stock market is how the world perceived the American economy so it will drive it's dollar value to 0 before it allows the asset bubble to pop.

Fundamentals are trash, I agree, there's no reason for average equity valuations to be this high. And no, Trump is no longer relying on the economy to get elected. That's the narrative the left is pushing. The truth is the left has doomed itself by letting their foot soldiers burn down American major cities in the name of 'equality' whatever the fuck that means. Because as the left already knows, all that matters today is optics, and they've done a great job painting themselves as the villains

>>20810601
Warren Buffet is sitting on a record amount of cash. Other investors started doubting did he lose his grip. Just check out what others have been buying; Ackman went hard in Hilton, Dalio is writing some esoteric bullshit of system losing its way. I am not denying the fact that big portion of smart money is waiting on the side but you can not compare yourself, as an individual investor, to what big funds are going to do.

Just look at it from rational perspective. If you dump your stocks once it starts tanking, you will most likely be alright. Big players on the other hand have hundreds of millions in positions; how do you think they will be able to liquidate it?

The answer is they will not; OTC is too slow and they are not allowed to dump such an amount on regular market. They will end up as bagholders in case they havent properly hedged their assets.

>>20808826
It's complicated but basically the pandemic is fading and while civil unrest will continue to be a problem due to decreasing ethnic homogeneity it will be largely irrelevant to the overall economy.
The technological singularity is gearing up, nasdaq will continue to outperform sp500, and crypto will continue to outperform nasdaq over the medium/long term.
If Biden wins things will get worse before they get better but even his BS will be tempered by the fact that at the end of the day he's a corporate crony so his social programs will be limited in the damage they are able to do to the economy.
If Trump wins things will be far more bullish short/medium term.
No matter what though nothing can stop the creation of vast amounts of wealth that is going to happen due to ever accelerating technological advancement.
Don't be stuck sitting on the sidelines in cash, metals are decent short term because of paranoia about economic collapse (which isn't going to happen) driving the price up, but eventually upward pressure on PM prices will fade and if you're sitting on metals you will eventually be left in the dust as tech/crypto prices explode over the next decade.

>>20810589
Great movie, masterful ending if you know the saying on wall street:
>want a friend? Get a dog

>>20810792
I doubt people will continue buying crap for 150 multiples and completely ignore raw economic data once the numbers are in. Singapore GDP is down 40% and UK is 19%.
No one can be ignorant to that point.

>>20808826
I should add that if you doubt me I was one of the few people who saw the 2008 collapse coming.
To me it was as obvious as a freight train barreling towards my forehead.
I successfully convinced all of my friends to not buy houses in the mid 00's.
Sadly I was too much of a poorfag back then to capitalize on the destruction so watching The Big Short is actually really painful for me because if I had some capital back then I could have gotten rich like those guys.
Not this time though.. not this time.

>>20810383
This. US still has plenty of cards to play

>>20810990
Even if you bought in 2008 you'd be up

>>20808438

Your stupid ass should double down on water too then

this thread is making me want to buy XRP

isn't the whole point that the dollar is what the world uses to trade over the SWIFT system? what alternatives are there?

>>20808826
>a finance guy says fundamentals are better
Outstanding troll

>>20810589
worst film I've ever fucking seen

>>20811097
Obviously, but being up and getting rich off of housing collapsing are very different things.
If I had money back then I'd have shorted the shit out of banks and (if I could have figured out how) the overall housing market.
Basically what happened is that approximately income went up 3% a year since end of WWII and houses went up 5% a year since then, it was unsustainable and as mortgages were the bedrock of the economy and the banking sector, it was a rubber band that was gradually getting stretched further and further until it eventually snapped and there were a lot of signs in the 00's that the rubber band was getting close to snapping if you knew it was only a matter of time and you looked for them.
Nobody wanted to believe it though since it had been going on for decades and too many people were making too much money off of the asymmetry. The movie does a great job exploring that aspect of the problem.

>>20811322
So you were a real estate doomer who eventually got proven right? So fucking what? All doomsayers get vindicated on a long enough time frame. You don't have special predictive powers.

>>20811322
Dude do oh go through your whole life with this kind of regret due to hindsight being 2020? Move on. Set yourself up for riches now and it sounds like you're doing that. Past is history. Tomorrow's a mystery. Keep ya stack fat and linky stinky

>>20811409
Except I'm not dooming now so your thesis is fundamentally flawed.
Not sure how you define "special" but ignore my posts if you want, I don't give a shit.
In a couple years when nasdaq is 20k+ and link won't stop mooning I'm sure you'll think back to these posts and just think I got lucky again.

>>20808438
Yep, america is fucked. that's why im moving to the philippines. I already fucked almost an entire family there:

1) the 18 year old daughter, this all started with her. she was dtf a foreigner. 1 hour after meeting her I was barebacking her in my bed.
2) her 22 yo sister that I met while "dating" the 18 year old, she went behind her sisters back to get my creampie. Sister eventually found out. Drama....but we still fucked regularly.
3)the gay brother who was a ladyboy, sucked my dick and swallowed. Fucked him in the ass since he begged for it. Looked a lot like his sisters. 39kg and 5' 2". Prostate orgasm from being pounded. Pretty cute.
4)the 45 yo mom. I had known all of them for about two years at this point and she was well aware of what I was doing to her daughters. I seduced her and came inside of her.
5) the 35 yo aunt. I got her pregnant since she lived like 10minutes away and came over every day after he work to fuck and get a creampie. She was surprised she got pregnant (again). I wasn't. My kid from her is 4 years old now.
6) aunt 2. Met me through aunt 1. I fucked her while aunt 1 was in the other room. She knew. Begged me to cum inside of her. Had baby rabies since her sister was pregnant at the time and it was making her jealous.

Their other brother worked at sea on a ship so I couldn't get my hands on him. Dad was dead and probably rolling in his grave.

>>20811458
Oh I'm all good, I've been making money hand over fist for many years, basically could retire right now if I wanted to but I'm just padding the accounts for a few more years so I can be extra comfy, plus my job is chill as fuck.
Just watching The Big Short stings is all, but it's all good.

>>20809572
Of what? Central banking? High taxes? High government spending? Socialism?
Eat shit commie

>>20811545
HOLY SHIT

>>20811322
The movie is stupid and doesn't talk about the federal reserve's role in printing all of this money that went into the housing market, also the community reinvestment act, also fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

>>20811111
Checked

>>20810842
This is quality.

>>20811678
It would be 4 hours long if they did that, it's a slice of one perspective on the crisis.
Not meant to be taken as an all encompassing authoritative summary of everything that happened.
Plus at the end of the day it's just a piece of Hollywood shit, don't take it too seriously.
But regarding the limited stuff it does cover, it does that pretty well, for a movie.
Probably didn't want to touch the community reinvestment act part because Hollywood is allergic to certain racial issues. Probably wouldn't have even gotten green lit if they went down that road.

>>20811545
lmao

not until eleciton