/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>20486658
Money printer will always go brr anon.
All dumps have been canceled

>>20486674
something has to give. I'm not sure what it will be. But if the market is supported artificially for long enough it won't end well, never does.

>>20486875
No, line go up forever

listen to bobo when it was 3k bitcoin, listen to bobo during the big stocks market crash during march. Bobo kikes deserve the rope

>>20486875
That’s so old fashioned thinking Anon. This isn’t a capitalist nation anymore, everything happens because the government makes it happen.

>>20486658
I would've said "priced in", but the gay ass market is nearly back to where it was before the drop, and the nasdaq hit an ATH. There's gonna be a face-ripping drop that'll make March 16 look like nothing.

>>20486922
This
The only people losing money/jobs are worthless nobodies who don’t matter
Better off if they die from corona/police or get fed a UBI drip forever

PRICED IN
R
I
C
E
D

I
N

>>20486957
I don't know if it's possible for a drop to be as face-ripping as march again, honestly. It's easy to forget that we hit circuit breaker in literally 2 seconds after market open.

If things start to get bad they'll fire up the backup printers for stimulus reparations part 2

>>20486961
imagine thinking 20% unemployment is natural cycle

youre a fucking retard

>>20487056
he didn't say it was a natural cycle

he said it was mcjobs that were in the shitter right now

and he's not wrong. the job losses have been concentrated overwhelmingly on the lower class.

>>20487101
mcdonalds is hiring so i think youre wrong

main street is in trouble. this shit is about to unwind so hard. how many business owners do you know anon?

Is there a reason printing money to the corporations and not to the people who actually spend it is a better idea than just giving us UBI?

>>20487056
After 2008 and the comeback under Obama, the vast majority of these new jobs were shitty part time/service work and other worthless stuff
This virus just showed everyone how non-essential they truly are and pulled back the curtains on the whole big sham

>>20487124
“Main street” has been a corpse for at least a decade now

>>20487124
mcjobs is a colloquial term for low paid labor

uber drivers and service industry are both way down but these are also low skilled and not essential to the functioning of the economy beyond keeping those employed in this manner out of trouble. Their productive output is near zero.

>>20487183
America doesn't really produce much of anything at all. Without infrastructure pretty much our only major exports are from the breadbasket.

For a large number of Americans, their entire job consisted of saying “yes sir!” In one way or another
This virus has just been an excuse to push forward what has already been happening for 20 years, that is automating all these pointless jobs since a computer can say “yes sir” just as well

>>20487207
are you trying to make a salient point or just saying words

>>20487224
Order of automation is probably going to be service jobs > coding and higher level engineering > trades

>>20487149
eh that doesnt explain the collapse in oil and shit

>>20487183
i mean yes cab drivers are not skilled labor but what does that really prove.

only thing keep economy afloat is unemployment. I employee 10 people each and every one of them is fucked when that 600 dollars is over. starving children in the streets .

You are wrong, next

Why do you think people will sell their stocks at a huge discount because of one medicore quarter? Like literally who gives shit.

It won't go well soon. Stimulation money is ending as well in august.

>>20487249
this is just an event that forces reallocation of human capital same as always. Peons get pushed deeper in debt and forced to take jobs they'd rather not. This much is predictable at least.

>>20487266
good, the stimulus was far too generous and has been buttfucking our economy by removing the incentive to work. Not capping benefits at 100% of previous salary was a HUGE mistake and in economic terms, one of the worst possible responses to the virus.

>>20487297
Weren't you just bitching about there being too many people who shouldn't work?

>>20487244
I’m doubtful about most trades being automated any time soon
Just pushed out by cheaper skilled labour
Tbh only the unions are keeping western trades afloat rn, you think there arent a million equally skilled asians who would do the same job for a fraction of the cost?

>>20487321
Chinks don't really strike me as tradesmen, no. But that's what I was saying. Automation will take out coding and engineering (more than it already has anyways hurr durr) before it deals with trades type stuff.
Most of the problem is entirely outsourcing and immigration, if there was less of that there would be more jobs that actually paid well.

>>20487337
Indians, asians, south Americans
Any one with the necessary skill and experience but no union will flood the markets and cut prices if the current union control was broken

Trades make good money because of the byzantine process of becoming a certified tradesman

>>20486658
Everything is priced in the markets.
And always has been.

>>20486658
you are powerless, Bobo.

>>20487302
you misunderstand me. If I pay one person $20 to dig a hole and another person $20 to fill it again, I've created $40 of GDP but produced nothing of real value. If I pay them $30 each to stay home instead, I've now debased my currency because it's not even tied to tangible output; not even factoring the usefulness of that output.

my point is that these people working or not does not really affect the economy much. It sucks for their personal livelihoods to be out of work but they aren't the stock that drives a nation.

Providing them over 100% of their income in unemployment just drives inflation for everyone else. In case you haven't noticed grocery prices are up close to 20% since before the pandemic, and grocer's margins have shrunk too. All the congresspeople sold off their grocery stocks in March because they knew what was coming, this is public record.

>>20487337
You cannot automate programming jobs without first proving P = NP , good luck with that.

Even suggesting programming jobs are nearing automation betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the physical laws that govern our existence.

>>20487422
>P = NP
???

>>20487422
>a fundamental misunderstanding of the physical laws that govern our existence
such as...?

>>20487454
Programmers/devops ain't being replaced. Their productivity is multiplied on long term.

Single database administrator of 80's can now manage clusters of kubernetes instances in 2020s

>>20487454

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem

If you can't come to understand this problem you have no business being in any kind of finance or investing and should just stick your shit in an index fund and forget about it.

>>20486658
>Surely I can't be the only one
Yes you are not, and that is why you will not be in the right.

When you are the only only, that's your chance

>>20487454
Explain to me how a compiler works. Now explain how a machine could fix a bug in its own compiler. I'll wait.

Hint: you probably have no fucking idea what a compiler even is

Everything is being so heavily manipulated by the Fed, it's hard to tell how thinks will shake out...Stock prices across the board are overvalued by at least 25% Who knows wtf NDX is doing... So we can logically expect a 2-3 sd correction, maybe more due to the high vol. After the next crash, the Fed will adjust bond yield curves. create more SPVs, haggle with the repo market...But will corperations be willing to issue more debt? My guess is SmlCap will get wiped out through bankruptcy/restructuring or gobbled up through acquisition. If dollar depreciation continues to get worse, the Fed may tighten, raise interest rates, which would be catastrophic for global markets, especially countries who are still in QE...
tldr; The Fed holds the cards

>>20487531
dollar will lose it's value at this rate

>>20487582
I don't see how this happens without the rest of the world's currency also losing value - i.e. a global depression, and a real one, not this bullshit one that's been mostly manufactured

>>20487526
Have another machine watch over that machine.

>>20487422
AIs training AIs for certain functions isn't hard, just inefficient(atm). No programer is able to program all the possible scenarios a self-driving car may encounter in a lifetime, but you feed enough data into aprogram and it'll construct a neural network that when tested, can perform the function on average better then a typical person.

There's not going to be revolutionary operating systems built by a dude in a basement anymore. It'll be dudes in basements with neural-AIs building neural-AIs.

>>20487642
Yes and what about that machine

If that was a serious answer and not bait just stick to menial labor please

>>20487677
You got me, g'night anon

>>20487664
You are extremely naive. Machine learning creates an entirely new branch of programming problems and creates more technical work for humans, not less. The net result might be unemployed taxi drivers but that means that the tech industry is working as intended - freeing up human capital for other uses.

It's also not anything close to a proof of P = NP, even with 99.999999998% accurate heuristics it's not a proof. There is really no counterpoint for this when it comes to machine learning so if you feel like arguing this point please spend more time educating yourself on computer science first.

>>20487507
>>20487526
you didnt mention the "physical laws that govern our existence". what are they that stop AI from automating programming?

you sound very angry and defensive so ur probably subconsciously shit scared of being replaced

>>20487582
dollar is already losing value...relative to other currencies..
>>20487601
dollar is still the global reserve currency, there's 10-20 T of dollar denominated debt issued throughout the world, so if the fed sells off their bonds, raises interest rates, that puts the dollar in higher demand, becuase they effectively sucked a bunch of dollars out of the global liquidity pool (see Bret Johnson's Dollar Milkshake Theory)..so if this happened, the dollar would spike. Interestingly, there could be quite a backlash from a move like this especially from PRC, Rus, Iran, Saudis, etc. Hence why PRC is quickly rolling out their digital currency so as to circumvent global dollar hegemony...

>>20487764
I'm not arguing for P = NP, there will always be limitations for what a computer is capable of. What I am arguing is a regression of computer programer in the same vein a blue collar construction worker operates when actually building the factories to eliminate and specialize blue-collar jobs.

>>20487361
Well it's better than nothing I suppose. I'm sure at this point America is counting on a war or a civil war to thin the herd but labor cutting pressures are working so hard overtime that it won't be enough.

>>20487498
>>20487422
>programmers aren't being replaced
>looks at China and India
lolbertarians that make less than 200k a year need to be put out of their own misery

>>20487361
>Trades make good money because of the byzantine process of becoming a certified tradesman

byzantine? how

>>20487796
No, I am just tired. Sorry for my hostility. A large part of a programmers job is explaining technical shit to people that don't understand it and have never written a single line of code in their life.

An AI always needs manual input of some kind. A perfect AI could only exist in a perfect void which contradicts its existence. Why do you think quantum computers are chilled to near 0 kelvin?

>>20487866
India has been an outsourcer for 20 years and has a reputation for being cheap and low-quality. China is 1. extremely technically uncreative and just follows western products to market 2. almost entirely interested in building shit for china and china alone

>>20487860
This I agree with, the field is becoming increasingly commoditized, however I think this is mainly a function of the massive demand for talent in the industry. There will still always be an upper crust of people that write novel code. Obviously things like cookiecutter CRUD apps will continue to have the bar of entry lowered.

>>20486922
This is true. Part of me wants to pull out of most things and wait in cash and PMs. The other half of me says markets don’t crash anymore as they are going to do everything to prop it up. We saw the crash in March due to the unknown and they just threw trillions at it....what crash? You mean buying opportunity? So I feel like being in crypto right ow is either make it or break it. Either we are going on a massive bull run or we are crashing. Feels like there can be no middle ground.

>>20487928
>China is 1. extremely technically uncreative
agree with this. experienced it first hand. they cant innovate for shit but they are masters at ripping what exists

>Why do you think quantum computers are chilled to near 0 kelvin?
i have no idea. why?

>>20487923
I come from a union family, lots of tradies
Only my Dad and I have been to university
The old union members keep a hard lock on how many new apprentices they accept and how long it takes to become a journeyman (a long fucking time)
Union has total control over wages and even if you work or not.
Tbh its not necessarily a bad thing, but it makes it very difficult to “just” join the industry with ought a lot of headache and years of shitty contracts unless you have some prior union connections.
The plus side of course is that they can demand high wages and lots of benefits if they commit to the union as it prevents outsiders from undercutting them or operating in their area.

Think of it like the Mafia but legal, unions exist to protect their members and secure them good work, not to flood the market with low cost/low wage workers

>>20488082
Because it allows them to test quantum phenomena that are not fully understood under unique conditions

You can read more about the weirdness of absolute zero and it's connection to the quantum world here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absolute_zero

>>20486961
>The only people losing money/jobs are worthless nobodies who don’t matter

I'm in the trades and work continues to come in.

>>20486658
NO

>>20488123
>I come from a union family, lots of tradies

Do you live in a blue state?

>>20488331
It doesn't really matter either way because all previous nepotistic consolidations only had a portion of the economy wiped out.
The current one will have so many wiped out that the unrest will be legendary.
Even if there's never a "revolution" so to speak, it's all to easy for them to knock out power grids and shit entirely unintentionally.

>>20486909
did you listen to bobo when bitcoin was 20k too?

Selective memory much?

>>20488355
Im Canadian and I live in Asia now with my own business

>>20487979
no worries, we won't be that generation. If you're around 25-35 you will be/are senior and everything is good.

Although... good luck kids coming up in 5 years!

The US government has turned the global economy into a ponzi scheme for political reasons. It needs to uphold the supremacy of the dollar to combat China, and can only do this by convincing the international market that the US can still provide a good return on investment. Jerome is also subject to Trump's whims, and he wants to be reelected at al costs.

There are many people wishfully thinking that a government can prop up an economy. They put on the veneer of 'modern monetary theory', aka brrrr, to give it some semblance of rational economic thinking. But an economy simply can't be upheld by a government alone, even one which controls the reserve economy.

Unless you believe we are living in a new normal and that this new state of affairs can go on indefinitely, then you can safely bet on the entire market collapsing.

who cares about a crash. just go all in BTC. it's the currency of the future.

>>20487131
UBI gives poor people time to coordinate which will result in a revolution, you already see what the corona holidays did regarding BLM. Blacks get killed by cops all the time, but suddenly the lower class was not to fucked from work anymore to finally react.

90% of jobs today (mensing service sector)are nothing more than social control. Nothing gets produced, it‘s just pic related economic LARP.