/biz/ - Business & Finance

And also I just have to say it:

inb4 bizlets LARP as being smarter than team related: https://www.ampleforth.org/about/ and their advisory board.

If you think you can immediately pinpoint all the flaws in this new economic model without reading the redpaper you are jaded from being scammed and have your head too far up your ass. Good day, sirs.

>>20375595
how much should i be stacking, sitting at 5k atm should i try for 10k?

>>20375845
That's what i did

finna retire by April of next year

>>20375595
no u

how much was the rebase yesterday

I only have 1k. Can I make it?

>>20375981
7% ish

>>20375988
Yes, I bless thee

How can it possibly have positive rebases for so long? The supply would get enormous and MC can't go up forever.

>>20376069
if it works it eventually gets a giant market cap with whales loving it because they get exchange fees and geyser yield resulting in a very stable and liquid coin


if it doesnt work it should still have regular fun wild swings giant expansions and contractions and extremely confusing price charts

>>20376069
Marketcap will grow. This is a decentralized store of value that does not get affected by traditional markets. It's designed to be added into every single investment portfolio as a hedge agaisnt anything and everything. This is a valuable "thing" to have for ..everyone. The demand is there, people are slowly waking up to the fact that something like this exists.

Let's look at an example of why it can go up for a VERY long time before stabilizing. With the above as a reference.

Bob purchased a huge amount of AMPL 6 months ago and is considered a whale. Bob is sitting on 10 million up from his initial investment of 1,000. Bob reached 10 mil through compounded gains and daily rebases. Bob dumps his stack and retires, crashing the price down to similar prices we're seeing now.

Alice (aka you) has been patiently watching AMPL and resisting the urge to fomo for months, waiting for a correction. Alice buys the dip, and the market reacts buy collectively buying the dip, eventually fomoing in and increasing the price again. Cyclical and reliable.

George who sits on the sidelines with a small stack and just collects rebases for the next 3 years while the marketcap discovers its reistance and support is also rich btw.

It's literally just like bitcoin, it relies on human greed to insure decentralization and constant "up time" via miners. If there's money to be made, people will flock to it in droves.

>>20376193
This coin is like theoretical physics or something. I can't see how supply can expand so much and price still be over $1 but I can't really see us staying under a dollar for long with so much buy pressure and deflation. The most likely scenario is what OP said. We stay between $1-2+ for a long time with wild swings. Meanwhile we get juicy rebases. I could be totally wrong though.

>>20375595
niggers, pajeets and europoor dorm-housed teenagers who thought they were smarter than me ETERNALLY BTFO, I am literally pissing in their mouths right now after they had their "omg it's literally dumping oh no no no" minute yesterday

YOU CAN'T STOP THE AMPL TRAIN, IT IS THE CHOSEN CRYPTO AND THERE IS NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT HAHAHHA

>>20376069
Because people will slowly realize they have been missing out and will continue to FOMO in. You have BTC ETH LINK and now AMPL.

>>20376270
You sound like someone saying you can’t see how bitcoin will break 700 when it doubled top there once upon a time.

>>20375595
WORD!

>>20376270
>>20376390

$1-$2 is the like zone but as i've said we'll have monthly FOMO cycles that can break $5 easily. Everyone want's to be in the "zone" of $1-$2 and there's only so many sellers at that price. We're going to have to see.

The best part is you can't lose money on AMPL. Not if you hold it.

>>20376390
AMPL is a whole different beast. Bitcoin is more similar to traditional currencies.

>>20375595
OP I was kind of poorfagging in the beginning, I didn't buy my whole stack at once, I only have 1.2k ampls but could maybe go up to 3k right now.. should I just leave the 1k rebasing for a while and wait for the next contraction or do I really want to drive my average buy price up like that by throwing a couple thousand $ at it right now... Hard to decide

>>20376349
I love your videos

>>20376482
>The best part is you can't lose money on AMPL. Not if you hold it.
oh cmon man
theres certainly the possibility that it has a crazy run and all the normies get burned hard enough to say fuck this coin forever

>>20376492
Agrees. My point was more about the arrogance of the poster I replied to and how wrong they are. Not to compare AMPL to BTC

>>20376482
I've lost money bc I bought a few days ago near ATH like an idiot. Now that I understand this coin I am never selling. A few more rebases and I will be in the positive again.

>>20375664
>If you think you can immediately pinpoint all the flaws in this new economic model without reading the redpaper you are jaded from being scammed and have your head too far up your ass.
It's pretty simple desu. The entire economic model depends on people treating the price after a rebase the same as the price before the rebase. From the whitepaper (section 3.1):
>At t1 there’s a limited opportunity for Bob to sell more units than he could have at t0 for the same price, before other fast actors restore the price to its equilibrium value.
and from section 4:
>To understand the potential behavior of Amples, we start by examining the proxies for gain and loss presented by the Ampleforth protocol that do not exist in other synthetic commodities. How actors respond to these will determine the movement pattern of Amples’ price and supply.
The opportunity for Bob at t1 to sell his more units at the same price depends on another actor on the other side of that trade, that will buy some % of market cap for a higher price than the last traded price at t0. It depends on some people not even knowing how the rebase works, and buying at the pre-dilution price without noticing there has been a dilution. I don't think there will be many such actors in the market for ampls, since it's a losing trade compared to just buying before t1 and being on the receiving end of the dilution yourself. The more natural thing to do is to adjusting your buy or sell price to the exact amount of dilution, the moment dilution happens, and indeed this is exactly what happens automatically with the uniswap exchange rate. In a decently informed market everyone will just trade price*supply, and the special movement pattern disappears.
This market dynamic is what all their claims of unique volatility pattern, no correlation to other assets, etc.. rest on, and I've explained why I don't think it will work. Can anyone address this without muddying the waters?

>>20376625
To be clear, I don't think this is a scam project, it seems like a nice experiment that is, however, flawed.
This sentence from the whitepaper conclusion makes it clear that possibly, the authors themselves have not really thought of this flaw:
>By our analysis above, we conclude that the market dynamics of Amples cannot be determined by price alone, and require the consideration of supply in addition to price. As a result, the volatility fingerprint of Amples will be distinct from current-generation synthetic commodities.
First they say, rightly, that the market dynamics will be determined by price and supply both. But the conclusion, that the volatility fingerprint will be different, is valid only when the price and supply are *not* taken into account by at least some market participants. This is a contradiction.

>>20375595
High IQ DETECTED

>>20375595
The secret of ampl is lopsided mathematics. There is unlimited max positive rebase (anything >$1.05) but limited max negative rebase (anything below $0.96) of -10% at $0 price. As long as there is demand, negative rebase will still bring price up back to $1 and start FOMO cycles again. This uneven math effectively makes for trapping more base mcap after each FOMO cycle and raising the collective value of each holder's stack.
The only way value can leave is if there were prolonged 0 demand, which at this point is not realistic.

However, don't let anyone shill you with "muh compounded gains" or any such nonsense. Rebase simply changes supply evenly so everyone still holds the same % of the token supply each night. Money comes in whenever whales or FOMO fags pump the price and requires continuous new demand for mcap (and hence the value of your stack) to continue to accumulate at a meaning rate.

Advanced level: Learn to play the swings and you can multiply your %stack every FOMO cycle. Sell the top, but the bottom.

>>20375595
>Buy the next bitcoin


Link IS the next bitcoin!!!

>>20376625
if the market actors are very informed (which they will never be as much as you think) then the post rebase dumps will be only like 5% and the rebase amount will be like 5.5% right?

Because the huge dumps of the last couple of days are precisely caused by whales dumping on uninformed market participants. If everyone knows the game then the dumps will be in line with the rebase amounts and therefore negating each other.
Then 10% uninformed or late to the party investors are totally enough to keep the rebase party going, right?

>>20376755
biz as usual (like they already did, check pink fields in the last couple days) will buy at 4$ again and panic sell at 1.50$ kek

What's theabsolute best option for a relative brainlet (me) right now who wants to throw a few Eth into the ecosystem, and isn't clever enough to swing trade this shit?

1 - Buy AMPL and hold in Metamask for a year or more
2 - Buy half AMPL, half UNI-V2 and hold both for a year or more.
3 - Buy all UNI-V2 and put it in Geyser
4. Other.

?

Thank you!

>>20376755
maybe you can help me out with this decision >>20376525

>>20376770
The market (on uniswap) automatically adjusts the price down by the rebase inflation, hence the rebase "dump". Some people sell off their rebase amounts as "free money" as one strategy to profit from ampl. This does trigger both human and bot selling. I also imagine larger players intentionally suppress price for this effect to buy back at a better dip.

There are more than a few profitable strategies with ampl depending on the trader's preferred style, goals, and mindset. Not all of these strategies necessarily positively reinforce the others.

Market participant ignorance certainly hasn't killed stocks, commodities, or forex though, so I wouldn't worry about ampl.

>>20376831
For dummy newfags, learn to trade and read price action. Barring that, hodling ampl is probably safe in your metamask. Iron hands.
>>20376525
You're already in the market contraction. Whether it dips to $1 or bounces or crabs remains to be seen. I personally won't buy in until it breaks out into the $2s or down towards $1.

>>20376882
how do you mean automatically drops the price by the rebase amount? Isn't the price dropped "organically" by everyone selling 1second after the rebase?

What's your strategy and what would you recommend apart from hodling through all phases of the price action, I understand the basics of TA and can read fib levels etc.

I'm a racist and I hold AMPLEFORTH

Rank 1 - 1.0% of total supply, AMPL balance: 1390762, price: $2447742
Rank 2 - 0.5% of total supply, AMPL balance: 695381, price: $1223871
Rank 3 - 0.25% of total supply, AMPL balance: 347691, price: $611935
Rank 4 - 0.125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 173845, price: $305968
Rank 5 - 0.0625% of total supply, AMPL balance: 86923, price: $152984
Rank 6 - 0.03125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 43461, price: $76492
Rank 7 - 0.015625% of total supply, AMPL balance: 21731, price: $38246
Rank 8 - 0.0078125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 10865, price: $19123
Rank 9 - 0.00390625% of total supply, AMPL balance: 5433, price: $9561
Rank 10 - 0.001953125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 2716, price: $4781
Rank 11 - 0.0009765625% of total supply, AMPL balance: 1358, price: $2390
Rank 12 - 0.00048828125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 679, price: $1195
Rank 13 - 0.000244140625% of total supply, AMPL balance: 340, price: $598
Rank 14 - 0.0001220703125% of total supply, AMPL balance: 170, price: $299
Rank 15 - 6.103515625e-05% of total supply, AMPL balance: 85, price: $149
Rank 16 - 3.0517578125e-05% of total supply, AMPL balance: 42, price: $75
Rank 17 - 1.52587890625e-05% of total supply, AMPL balance: 21, price: $37
Rank 18 - 7.62939453125e-06% of total supply, AMPL balance: 11, price: $19
Rank 19 - 3.814697265625e-06% of total supply, AMPL balance: 5, price: $9
Rank 20 - 1.9073486328125e-06% of total supply, AMPL balance: 3, price: $5

>>20376990
>how do you mean automatically drops the price by the rebase amount?
Uniswap price is determined by the ratio between pools;
Due to rebase the ampl pool gets larger w.r.t. the eth pool;
So the eth/ampl price automatically adjusts.
It's just how uniswap works.

>>20377113
oh so the dumps only really happen on other exchanges but then it goes "too far" so the uniswap price follows?

>>20376990
On uniswap, the price is set by the relative ratio of the pool tokens. When rebase happens, there is an excess of ampl that causes the price of ampl to drop to restore a 50/50 ratio. When ampl liquidity is diminished (ie bought faster than it is sold) the price is driven up to accommodate the relative scarcity in the pool. Likewise, when it is sold off en masse and eth is depleted, the price goes down.

On Kucoin, the prices are determined by the order book, which is set by humans and bots. The bots however bid the prices up/down via frontrunning which does affect the price on uni and other places via retail arbitrage.

My strategy is to sell the top and buy the bottom, to beat hodling, but I also trade for a living so my eyes are glued to what's going on. For normie fags who can't do that, hodling is fine as long as you believe in this project a year from now and aren't looking to cash out every week. It will be a wild ride.

Fibonacci is bullshit. Learn to read psychology, market sentiment, volume, and candle action to see what the market is *doing*.

However, with Ampl the price action is more predictable because of the nightly rebase, and can be exploited if you can do basic math. How you trade it profitably really depends on who you are and how much risk tolerance you have.

>>20377113
next question: on which exchange do I keep my ampl then so I can trade around the rebase timings?

>>20377195
It depends on your strategy. I suggest holding in metamask and trading via uniswap. Kucoin and bitfinex make trading more difficult than necessary.

>>20377195
You can if the post rebase sell-off is bigger than the buy pressure.

This has happened for 3 days in a row (from the 4.10$ top) but yesterday it didn't work out. It's somewhat of a 'gamble'

>>20377243
But on uniswap due to the pairing as you've explained, the rebase drops the price automatically so I can't sell at the real top like on kucoin...
also it must be a gas price war right?

Also, do you set your sell price way lower than needed so it get's filled in the big red candle after the rebase happens?
Your replies really help a lot, thanks for sharing your knowledge for free

>>20376550
luckily there are so few holders, and it's mostly biz who is used to getting rekt at some point it another. Now that this have settled a bit and we got through the first huge dump, everyone can be looking forward to 70+ days of compounding returns.

All profitability requires exploitation of differences in price. Be that across time periods (day, week, month, year) or exchanges (arbitrage) or exchange ratios (various currency pairings). Understanding how and when prices will differ such that the difference can be profitably exploited is up to the trader, their risk tolerance, and the timeframe and degree to which they wish to realize a profit. This requires studying an asset's underlying properties and its interaction with the market. Doing so will help make accurate predictions of the asset's future price and ensure profitability.

Where can I buy it?
Where can I store it? ERC20?
What are the chances of this being a scam?
What is target price in 3 years?

>>20377414

>Uniswap/Kucoin/Bitfinex
>Yes, its an erc20 so you can store in metamask or ledger
>Depends on how you define 'scam'. Zero utility? Yes for now. Team exit scam? Probably not.
>Target price is $1

>>20377253
>>20377370
>>20377472
top or bottom or should I just quit trying

>>20377300
I don't set sell orders, nor do I sell on Kucoin due to bot manipulation. I hand trade on uniswap based on reading the price action and according to my risk management plan.

I'd urge you to read and understand thoroughly the white paper and red book, as it provides insight on how to profitably trade Ampl. Once you understand how it works, Ampl is actually a very predictable asset and can be milked fairly easily. The rebases create predictable periods of price action whereas other cryptos and assets are more "random" by comparison.

>>20377472
>Target price is $1
we are already at $ 1

>>20377510
Take risks, see the result, readjust your strategy. As I said, I'm personally waiting for bullish confirmation by a breakout to the $2s or bearish confirmation towards $1. If bearish, I'll buy back in after the bounce off sub-$1. If we crab, I'll likely play daily price action games with small stakes.

>>20377574
the other anon is asking about 3 years time sir.

Maybe this will shine some light.

I just bought

GET THE FUCK IN HERE BOYS

>>20377736
you must be so proud of yourself

>>20377782
Proud to be able to read the writing on the wall?
>>20377703

>>20377850
I'm proud of you too

>>20377622
thanks.
Btw. there was another guy who created a custom indicator based on price, supply and volume which switches colors from red (sell) to green (buy) and it fits the historical chart perfectly. Do you have any educational resources for me to understand how to design such custom indicators? Because I'm not an idiot and I understand math as an engineer as well as the whitepaper and that looking at the price only, makes no sense across rebases.
Also, do you crawl twitter, telegram, /biz/ to analyse psychology/sentiment or is it just your gut feeling? I really want to make it anon...

>>20377703
you know, I really felt this before the dump and I knew that it couldn't have kept going by any means but I was too scared to trade because I don't understand uniswap and gas price wars yet so i just held... next time I want to swing it as well

>>20377510
If you look at that & the mcap you'll see we had our first rebase with positive buy pressure and mcap set a new high low. I'm leaning towards breaking 1.80 resistence and flying to 2+ pre-rebase, but if you're unsure wait for 1.80 to break.

>>20377972
plox explain how to not get killed on uniswap during rebases and how to determine gas price and do I unironically do it over the metamask GUI like a moron or is there some more lean way?

>>20377472
>Target price is $1
Ok so the prices stays 1 dollar, but I accumulate more coins the longer I hold? So I make money by accumulating coins rather than it increasing in price correct? Do I have to do anything to accumulate these coins? Or do they just accumulate as it sits in my metamask wallet?

why do they all sound like TWU bros?

>>20377913
Thank you. Hopefully you can see why the price action said "SELL"

>>20377929
I don't do indicators, other than moving averages to see some bigger picture stuff from other time frames. TA on ampl is kind of silly. It's better to understand how it works mathematically to understand when good positions open up (ampl is kind of a special case), and be able to read price action, as that will carry you across any asset you trade.

Reading volume is as simple as looking at the volume candles and seeing if green or red and size is waning or waxing. Better yet, just look at MACD.

That said, if you do this right, you won't need to trade constantly throughout the day (HFT is done by bots now), you can just take a position before you know it will pump and close it at the top.

>>20378131
pretty much yes, if the price is above $1 the money printer goes brrrr every night and you get a proportional piece of it but all that matters is your % of the supply

>>20378035
>how not to get killled
Don't trade rebases. Gas price is irrelevant if your stack is big enough.

>>20378035
Again, you only trade rebases if you can predict what happens next. And by that I mean selling a couple minutes before and buying in afterwards. You can't trade the rebase itself. the change in price is not due to people selling or buying, it's the Uniswap pool rebalancing.

>>20378364
This guy gets it. Unironically rebase is the most dangerous time to trade. Better to give up a few % upside to prevent a larger % downside.

>>20378456
It does make sense to trade them in a clear downtrend (You end up with a bigger stack by selling before and buying after compared to what the rebase % gives you), but you never know when this turns on you.

So far safest course of action seems to be trying to find an obvious top waiting for the mcap to drop and rebuy a bigger % of the mcap later on when it starts to recover. That's if you plan on swinging anyways. If your only plan is holding through for x weeks might as well get in now and wait it out for a couple months if you believe the project will succeed.

>>20378593
I'm well aware of how to trade ampl, my dude, though your strategy leaves you with less value than if you sold at the top of the mcap and wait to buy the bottom.

It's much better to always sell before rebase, but like I said there is more than one way to skin this cat. Personally, in a contraction cycle (now) it's better to sit out and let the thing reach equilibrium before jumping in. When is up to your personal risk tolerance. I'm happy leaving a little on the table to guarantee a win.

In the expansionary cycle
see pic >>20376755
HODLing through is ok, but even then I don't mess with catching the knife during rebases.

As the top got steeper, I got basically no sleep last week watching this, ready to pull out. I figured the whales would crash it on an off hour just to be sure to sell the top. When the price action got progressively more cranky, I pulled out before going out drinking with my bro, and came back to a $2.65 price.

>>20378981
Yeah I actually pulled out the day before when we hit 4 the first time that day. I already got a little back in and will drop some more if it breaks 1.80, ride the next wave up and then I'll plan from there.

What is a holder's annual % yield if this thing actually does become stable at $1?
What's the annual yield % in the beehive if this thing becomes stable at $1?

do these actually get reasonably low enough that people wont fucking hate early investors enough to refuse to use it out of spite?

>>20379391
>annual HODLer APR
No one knows, if unironically stable at $1, mcap is not changing which would be 0% growth
>annual beehive APR
No one knows, gets diluted with more participants
>weird question
No one hates bitcoin early adopters

>>20379630
>No one knows, gets diluted with more participants
isnt the percent beehive yield assuming stability predetermined?

>>20379796
The beehive, like the geyser, has a certain amount of ampl allocated to it, which represents a %share of the overall ampl supply. The more people taking part in the beehive/geyser, the more this must be split to share the reward. The more this is split, the lower the APR yield. This really only benefits huge whales whose total supply would wreck the market. Small stacks are better off hodling or swinging due to impermanent loss from the liquidity pool.

oh it expands by a flat amount? what flat amount?

>>20378981
God bless you anon very happy for you, btw im the guy with the many questions just phoneposting right now

>>20379908
Then again, there are advantages for being a liquidity provider (uniswap/geyser).

At least your portfolio gets rebalance 50-50 all the time, which helps you to secure profits as it goes higher. Good risk management strategy, but of course you'll miss all the crazy gains

>>20375595

Because I'm going to trust someone who is so organised they have 8 untitled pictures on their picture. Go fuck yourself.

>>20380947
Good is relative to your goals. If you are bullish on the project but a normie, hodling is better. In the LP, on the way up you miss max gains, on the way down you lose value and accumulate worth-less ampl, that will be rebalanced back out on the next upswing. If one is looking to profit after a long time, hodling will be a better roi. If you feel like this is a flash in the pan, then you don't want to be stuck with worth-less ampls and it's better to swing. The LP is really for capital that the market can't support yet in liquidity without wrecking price action.

>>20376938
Crab at $1.50 would be a dream come true. 5% rebase a day. Double my initial AMPL in 14 days. Then double it again in 8 days. Then in 6 days. Then again in 5 days. Then 4 days. Then 3 days.

>>20381175
Definitely anon, I totally agree with what you just explained haha

So if I just buy AMPL and hold in my wallet I will get more AMPL every single day, as long as this is over a dollar? And this will presumably keep going on for months from now? Looking at what the rebases give and that seems like a good deal to me.

Op here (new id) I’ll reply to the fud after lunch - fuck niggers Jews chinks jeets and jannies

>>20376755
Holy shit this is true. I didn’t think of that but now I’m even more excited

Can someone explain how the compounding amount works? I just bought a small stack on Kucoin. So am I going to see my amount of AMPL increase automatically or what? Do I have to do something?

>>20381986
Don't worry I got your back fren

>>20378981
>in a contraction cycle (now)
No reason it cant pump to $4 again tomorrow

>>20382272
You don't have to anything, I have my AMPL on Kucoin too

Is right now a good time to buy more, or do you think we're gonna keep going down a bit further?

You guys are morons. You don't get compound gains unless the price increases higher than the breakeven after rebase

>>20376755
Concur’d
>>20382329
HH brother

AMPL marketcap 2020 < AMPL marketcap 2021 < AMPL marketcap 2022

All you have to do is HOLD (and sell upswings)

>>20376755
Checked.
Buy low, sell high. Got it.

>>20376349
>calling LINKmarines incels when LINK is what makes AMPL work

For shame, anon, we're all in this together!

Only hodling increases my stack by getting more coins through rebalances?

>>20383873
yes

>>20383844
i hold both it's just a meme haha

>>20383748
Smoothbrain analysis

Compounding is the process in which an asset's earnings, from either capital gains or interest, are reinvested to generate additional earnings over time. ... Compounding, therefore, differs from linear growth, where only the principal earns interest each period.

Example: bob has 1000 AMPL, each rebase he earns 100 AMPL (for example). assuming that we don’t go below $1, bob will always get more ampl than previously each rebase because his stack is growing.

Check em.

>>20383748
How much of an idiot are you? Yesterday we got around 7-8% in rebase and the price didn’t dump afterward, in fact it actually increased. That extra 7% to my stack sure looks real to me anon