/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19830131
Why should used cars depreciate?

if population growth continues to be greater than construction of housing then price will keep rising

>>19830215
Because they wear out over time and stop working and there are parts that are essentially irreplaceable in them such that when they fail, it is just cheaper to get a new car.

Meanwhile property is always worth at least the value of the land and houses can last centuries while cars last decades. And much more so than cars, components can be patched up, replaced and kept going for minimal investment so long as the bones are fine.

you could buy houses in Detroit for $20 because it turned into a jungle after the white people left, there's risk with every investment

>>19830304
> Because they wear out over time and stop working and there are parts that are essentially irreplaceable in them such that when they fail, it is just cheaper to get a new car.
Do you think houses don't wear out over time? That they don't have parts that are irreplaceable such that when they fail, it's cheaper to buy a new one?
> Meanwhile property is always worth at least the value of the land
Typically not as much as you think. Assuming we're not talking about mobile homes and $500/sqft hovels the house is typically more than the land.
> houses can last centuries while cars last decades.
See previous comment about wear over time. Or just hop into Zillow/Redfin and filter by homes older than 50 years. Most are dogshit.
> And much more so than cars, components can be patched up, replaced and kept going for minimal investment so long as the bones are fine.
I'll at least agree with this, although there are still a fair number of assumptions about what will happen.

>>19830131

>certainly houses today are overvalued by at least 100%

>boomer landlords have zoning committees' collective balls in a vise

>wealth to flee into the safety of real estate

You're answering you're own question, the market is totally overrated because everybody thinks like you making it an even bigger jenga stack where more and more buyers are getting priced out, go out for a strolle in your town and count the for sale signed right now, I can guarantee you that just around your block there will be 3.

There is no demand and there is a shit ton of offer meanwhile house are still hyper inflated because every idiot thinks real state is the safest bet, I wish I had the buying power for what is about to come, even Berkshire Hathaway is going to see massive losses because that boomer idiot buffer is so out dated that is buying the top in order to not let other players enter the market, in a month or 2 is going you be cash payers paradise between the dead, the broke, the dumb and the inept housing is going to cave in 4 times worst than 2008 and not even Jerome and his magic printer will be able to save this shit

if people lose their job, they cant pay rent
that easy, thats all. why would someone invest money if it doesnt yield returns -> numbers go down, just like every recession

>>19831356
I wish you wrote this with better grammar and typos because I feel like you're dropping a lot of wisdom that I'm on the cusp of understanding.

I have a credit score of 780 and about $6k in savings, with my uncle and a friend offering to loan me 5k each at no interest. Do you think it's likely that I will be able to buy a house at a decent deal within the next 12 months?

>>19831778
If you go all in on link

>>19831920
This board has permanently turned me off from cryptocurrency forever. I will never not assume that shit like link, eth whatever are memes

>>19830131
the thing is REITs are going to buy them all up and then lobby against any further development

>>19831778
My fucking phone sucks and by the time I proof read what I wrote It sounds like fucking gibberish 40% of the time.

Go out to any bank, there is also entities popping up on every state.
look for your state bond wherever you're, chances are it's the same as here.

There are entities giving you 0 down payment on houses right now, sounds exactly like 08 CDOs to me but those who pointed this to me told me it's not the same in the essence that you can only get one house not 20 like they were doing back then.

I don't know if I want to buy I house right now tho, you'r buying the top on a house that can lose up to 50%, value and won't see a recovery until about 2 to 3 years, but the fed's said they'll keep the loan interest at zero who knows for how long so it's a mix bag in my opinion, they can see the writing on the wall and are doing what they can to not repeat the exact same mistake they did 10 years ago.

I don't know if I want to buy I house like right now, right now but I can guarantee you in 2 months banksters might actually start paying you to off load their inventory, they're talking about a reverse interest rates.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5288107002

This is a once in a life time opportunity, if your smart enough, keep your eyes and ears to the street you might get the deal of a century, if your a dumb fucking idiot you should be able to score a boomer box somewhere out there.
Housing is caving in, those who are still pouring millions on it because it's the only safe haven they know are about to see what the Bush crisis was.

Don't invest in housing for the next few months, the bubble is about to burst faggots are too scare to admit that's why the always loose, once they start talking about the housing bubble go talk to the bank directly, don't get a realtor, don't get anything ask them what's in their inventory, you might be able to buy a house straight cash with 20k, house are horribly overvalued at moment

>>19830131
Either the stock market or the bond market is going to crash and that means that their 401ks and pensions are going to be decimated, which means they cannot retire unless... they sell their house. Millenials and zoomers have no money because jobs are shit and a bunch of debt because student loans so they may not be in a position to buy a house even if it’s a good deal. Cheap money made it so that businesses sold bonds to do stock buybacks which further inflated the stock bubble, when they default those jobs are gone.
A rising tide raises all ships, and this is the opposite, housing will go down because everything will go down (except PPE and food because of supply shortages from wave 2)

>>19830242
stop population growth.
big prob is only tge filthy ignorant degenerate savages are breeding and communist sjws are doing everything they can to take our hard earned money and subsudize these savages.
they ought to be fuckin sterilzed

>>19830215
im not convinced cars depreciate. used cars at local dealers cost almost as much as new

>>19832025
I can just go to a bank and ask for a house? What?

>>19832447
reading this is making me kind of excited knowing that i could actually own a house in my lifetime without milking myself financially

>>19832447
been waiting for 20 years for this big happening

>>19830242
house prices remained consistent with inflation from 1900 to 2000 despite population growth. what's causing house prices to rise is CENTRAL BANK policy not population growth.

>>19831188
You have to be trolling. This is a brain dead argument. When a car wears out to that point, nobody will buy it. It becomes worthless. When a house wears out to that point, the land it is sitting on maintains its value. Land typically increases in value over your time. The odds are historically in your favor that even if you actually neglect your house so much that it becomes not worth repairing, the land alone will be worth more than what you bought the house for because this takes ~60-80 years to happen. And then someone will actually come in and build a new house on that land and sell it for 3x what they bought your land for, creating new value. There is no analogous situation for a car.

Fuck off already.

>>19831920
this is so fucking disgusting that chainlink hires indian shills for this shit. this is why sergay is going to fucking prison.

>>19830131

Posted this in another thread.

Houses are still in a massive bubble. Just as great a bubble as they were in during 2006, if not more so. On average, they are 8x earnings. The current prices only subsist because of the availability of easy credit. If you want to know why you should buy gold instead of a house right now, watch this video; bearing in mind that, at present, gold is still historically vastly undervalued. (It would need to be $5000 in today's money to reach its nominal peak of $1900.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-knwwD-PZc

If you buy a house now, one of two things is going to happen:

1) If and when the U. S. government defaults on its debt, and interest-rates spike, both house prices and stocks will collapse by up to 90% in nominal terms. This is unlikely.

2) If and when the U. S. highly inflates the currency, which will happen before 2021, in order to prevent a stock market crash, house prices will soar in nominal terms. But, against the price of gold, which people will flock to as a safe haven, they will crash. A person who buys gold now will be able to buy three times as many houses in future as he can right now. Inevitably, by about 2024, the U. S. will reach hyperinflation, which will lead to a default, and then house prices will crash by 90% anyway.

>>19830131
>ctrl + f “niggers”
>0 results

Really guys?

>>19830131
Housing supply is artificially restricted by the government. Boomers tell city hall to not giving building permits or changing zoning laws so that their "asset" retains value.

It's a total fucking sham. Read an economics book you fucking illiterate.

>>19830131
Central bank interest rates.

When people go to buy a house, they want to buy the most house they can afford. People don't buy houses often, and it's not convenient (or cheap) to simply upgrade in a couple years if you need more space. People also can't afford to buy houses with cash, so they need a mortgage.

How much can they afford? That depends on interest rates. Low interest rates inflate property values massively.

For the average mortgagecuck paying a 30 year mortgage, a 1% change in interest rates is worth about $140/month on mortgage payments - that's a $50,000 difference in total payments over 30 years. So, very roughly speaking (true math is a bit more complex), a $200,000 house at 7% interest rates can be sold to the same chump for $300,000 at 5% interest, or $400,000 at 3% interest.

Excluding issues like foreign investment, housing prices are going to be much, much more heavily influenced by interest rates than any other factor.

So the real question is whether interest rates will increase. North America is locked into basically 0 interest for at least another year and a half, but at some point interest rates need to go up, and when they do the housing market will feel it.

redpill me on how to research the housing market

>>19834083
Frequent house listing websites and talk to boomers. It's the number 1 low-iq investment so if you can't figure it out you're genuinely ngmi.

>>19834193
well i was thinking something a little more 'researchable' like is there a way to find out aggregate sales number in various geographic regions, new construction, etc

Look op.. I dont want to sound insulting, but are you retarded?

The land the house is built on has value and the house itself has value. If the house has rates, holes in the roof, and termites.. its not worth that much anymore you see?

And if that house is in a decent neighborhood, the relative price for this piece of shit house will still be high, due to surrounding property prices.

Things depreciate in value as they deteriorate. Paint fades, roofing deteriorates, foundations break, etc etc.

>>19830131
The value of property doesn't depreciate under normal circumstances. The value of buildings on property is primarily dependent on supply and demand.

If interest rates suddenly shoot up, and people have to essentially walk away from their homes because there's so many flooding the market, the price will obviously go down. If lots of people are able to easily get mortgages and are holding onto their homes, the prices will go up since more people are looking to enter the market than exit it.

>>19833390
The USA will definitely not default on their debt. It's more like every other country other than the USA will default. China and by proxy Hong Kong, are the most extreme examples. We're definitely going to see the end of china within the next decade.

>>19834810

The default will be effected in deed, not in word, by way of trashing the currency. If you pay back your bondholders in hyperinflated paper, and then create a new currency, thus rendering the previous one worthless, you are effectively defaulting. America would then have to borrow at interest-rates which rival those of Argentina, and the entire government, along with its enormous expenditures, would utterly collapse.

Boomers dying WILL cause a housing crash. You said they will just leave them to their children and nothing will change, but the simple math means that a lot more houses will be available on the market at any one time. This who inherit houses can try to sell them if they want, but without anyone living in them, the property taxes and costs will eat into their inheritance and soon enough they will want to get rid of the house more desperately than anyone will want to buy it. Sure they could put it up for rent, but then the rental market gets flooded with houses and rent rates will decrease, meaning more people will choose to rent instead, meaning less demand for house buying again and a price crash. Whichever way you look at it, prices will crash once boomers start dropping in numbers or moving to retirement camps

>>19832012
Honestly at this point you should just keep telling yourself that. It will be healthier for your self image.

>>19834874

Also; China is stronger than ever, and will only get stronger upon the collapse of America. They have been dumping U. S. treasuries, and been net buyers of gold, since 2008; and, off the books, have hoarded much more gold than they officially confess to owning. They have all the manufacturing, while America is a nation of mere consumers. America, should the dollar become worthless, is a laughing-stock and a nothing-country. This is why everybody should be investing in foreign stocks; because foreign nations, who have been oppressed until now by the dollar, will soon be selling their goods and commodities for real money, gold and silver.

>>19834922
this is what peter schiff says. foreign countries send us their stuff. we send them pieces of paper. when this cycle stops, it's going to be hellish for america.

>>19832024
...So invest in REITs?

>>19830131
Housing isn't necessarily over-priced, people are just paid like shit and kept in perpetual debt, you can't build a comfortable residential house for much less than $150-200k
Private ownership is going down and real estate is getting accumulated only by the rich
At a certain point enough people will just move into vans, boats, campers, or move out of this god forsaken country.

>>19832447
Sounds like more regression to the mean then.

>>19835012
Neofuedalist agenda.

>>19834965

"As Pierre Lecomte, a French financial analyst and supporter of the campaign 'Dette et dollar' (to reject the dollar as a world currency) says, 'while the rest of the world must toil hard to earn dollars which are needed to buy goods internationally, or to pay off foreign debt, the USA just needs to print dollars.'"

From US Dollar Hegemony: The Soft Underbelly of Empire, by Rohini Hensman and Marinella Correggia

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4416354?seq=1

>>19834900
I don't take your meaning

>>19830131
House should be priced in median incomes. So if the median income is $50k, then your average 1,800 sq ft family home really should be 200-250k (4-5x median income). There's absolutely no reason for it to appreciate more than that. In fact, anything over that is due to severe distortions in the market and will eventually correct because it's not sustainable. Primary residences should keep up with inflation. They are a place to live, not an investment. An investment would be speculation for development, or a rental to get cash flow. But the value of a residence itself should not be the driver of any kind of return outside inflation.

>>19833213
Yep. Same reason tution prices have skyrocketed. When easy liquidity is dumped on a market, prices inflate. This is not a healthy thing.

bump for decent thread on biz

Increasing fulltime remote work jobs will be the silver lining of the pandemic and that will enable a lot of people to move out of shitty apartments into nice houses. There is no reason at all to live in Silicon Valley or NYC or LA or any other super-expensive coastal city with no more room to grow to work a job where you just sit at a desk and do stuff on a computer all day. Everyone except boomer middle managers whose only skill is "checking up on employees" wins: less traffic, less pollution, improved employee morale, employees moving out of cuckshed city apartments into nice houses in smaller towns/rural areas, less office space rental overhead for companies and if those empty offices are repurposed into housing that should help out housing prices in expensive cities.

I work an office job in a cheap flyover city and I'm already planning to move to a smaller town a couple hours away by the end of this year or early next year because the pandemic convinced management that fulltime remote work isn't that big of a deal (previously we we were allowed to work at home a couple days a week plus whenever weather was shitty). I could afford a decent house where I live now but I could pay less for much nicer houses on more land in the town I want to live in. I've been researching the housing market of where I want to move and I might have already found my new house.
>4BR/2BA 2300 square feet ranch house, big garage, basement, lot is a little over an acre, shed in the backyard for lawn equipment, outskirts of town, backs up to the woods and walking distance from a stream, ready to move in, good internet available, owner is having such a hard time selling he is making improvements while lowering the price
>hit the market in February for 115K it's now 90K
>my 15 year mortgage payments there would be about half of what I pay in rent now

>>19830131
It's cool seeing a thread start with a retarded premise turn into a thread with actual useful information.

>>19834193
> It's the number 1 low-iq investment so if you can't figure it out you're genuinely ngmi
What. Of corse he can figure out how to buy a house, that's not what hes talking about.
If you research the market, you're patient and you make a lot of low ball offers you can buy 10-33% below fair value. That's a very nice return on a 6 figure investment. Especially if you use leverage (mortgage).

>>19835783
Excellent plan anon. It's even better if the forest you're backed up on is a state or national park, to prevent your scenic view from turning into a boomershack development 10 years down the road. Or buy the empy land yourself.

>>19830131
The third world mass migrating in and turning the neighborhood into a shithole is the type of thing that can affect home values.

>>19835005
yeah, sure. You'll never get the satisfaction or equity from owning your own home, but at least you'll get a kick back from the situation, inevitably taking the sting out of paying rent eternally.
Or you can work in political coalition to enact rent control legislature and create home ownership programs, while shorting REITs.

>>19835927
That only works if the national park is protected, which under President Trump it is not. So instead of housing development they will have oil drills.

>>19834438
literally gonna have to stalk property tax info. each county usually has a website you can find this info on.

I make 35k/yr and really want a house

is there any hope for me?

>>19836342
West Virginia or Alabama maybe.

>>19835783
sounds based

>>19833390

Hi Ray Dalio

>>19831778
No. And don't take the loans. Those uncle friend loans indicate your not ready to buy. Nothing wrong with that.