/biz/ - Business & Finance

Imagine thinking the worlds governments would allow house ownership in middle class to fail

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2004/01/2004a_bpea_geanakoplos.pdf

homeowners read this. It shows we have the same problem that lead to the 2008 housing bubble.

tl;dr
> After 2008 regulations for banks were put in place to restrict lending.
> so "non-banks" now handle over 50% of mortgages these days
> non-banks barrow money from real banks via wearhouse line of credit
> its the same problem as 2008 but with a shell company known as a non-bank lol

>>19779892
imagine thinking the gov has enough strench to prevent global finanical collapse

>>19779949
what makes you think they don't? we jump skipped right over deflation into hyperinflation with free money and it's working

Lol at rent cucks, a single room apartment goes for $1500 where I am at my mortgage is $1400 for a 1800 sq ft house.

>>19779879
Wait wait, doesn't that mean lower property taxes tho?

>>19779987
prices haven't changed. theres still no inflation, even with 7 trillion printed.

Thats how strong the deflation is

>>19779879
You're just trying to stir up the housing shill arent you?

>>19779892
>Imagine thinking central banks would allow that wealth to sit idle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_II

>>19779879
Hopefully, I want the housing market in the UK to fucking crash

>>19779879
>house loses half its value
>recovers all of it in 3 years
>mortgage stays the exact same while rent skyrockets
pftthahahahahaha great analysis Kowalski, got any more zingers you want to throw my way?

>>19779949
they just printed more in 2 months than in 12 years

next

>>19779892
Tbh my uncle bought a modest $400k house in 06 or 07 and basically finally managed to sell and break even in 17...

>>19780018
>plus property tax
>plus utilities (costs way more to heat/heat light an entire house than an apartment
>plus maintenance fees/renovations
And you need to bet on getting your money back, who even knows if it will sell for what you bought it for in 5-10 years, look at Detroit. Shit can go south fast if everybody decides to fuck off

>>19780063
Not gonna happen bucko. Keep waiting, then bitch and moan about how your dream home just went up £100,000 in 3 years.

Get with the program and cuck for a mortgage ASAP while rates are pitifully low. Thank me in 30 years once it’s paid off and you get to lecture your wife’s kids about how they should pull themselves up by the bootstraps and work hard like you did. All the while knowing all you did was invest in bricks and sitting on it a few decades.

>>19779892
>Imagine not realizing that the world governments have been trying to kill of the middle class and implement a 2 class system for a while now
>imagine not realizing that is specifically what BLM and all this shit is about

>>19780387
/x/

>>19780446
/lgbt/

The big reset will wipe out homeowners' outstanding mortgages, leaving them with effectively free homes, and then the renters will be seething. Not definite... but likely. Enjoy renting AFTER the reset lol

10 years from now while you’re still paying rent and I’m paying my mortgage down who will be in the better position? Paying rent has zero benefits except you can move after your girlfriend kicks you out.

Can't wait to pay off my mortgage with the inflated currency we finna get. Renters BTFO

>>19779906

> shell company

Typical really.

>Ignoring the fact that I will be able to pay my house off for 1 bitcoin soon
This Entire thread is poorfag rentcuck cope

>>19780704
You need silver my man, but i'm contemplating not paying my CC, buying silver, selling the silver, and paying it off with worthless dollars.

>>19779879
>Homeowners are about get cucked the housing crash
12 motherfucking years, anon and literally fucking nothing

>>19779892

Imagine going over all the possible options the Fed has left and not seeing that a stock crash and housing crash is the ONLY way the USA will avoid total and complete collapse.

>>19780446
/shareblue/

>>19780124
>thinks all that shit he posted isn’t PRICED INTO YOUR FUCKING RENT
Absolute state of this fucking board.

>>19779879

You might want to read this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.curbed.com/platform/amp/2020/5/21/21264167/coronavirus-housing-market-prices

Also,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-mortgage-applications-hit-high-rates-fall-record-low-2020-6-1029317235

>bought a house for $125,000
>know damn well it's overpriced
>was priced at 100k in 2010
>if housing market crashes definitely going to lose at minimum 25k, maybe even up to 50k
>don't care, renting out the 2 spare bedrooms
>outright own my home with 2k passive income a month

I don't give a FUCK if the value of my 125k home drops to 75k, i will always have renters and i will never have to answer to a landlord.

>>19779879
The fact that I’m not enabling some kike landlord is reason enough to buy a house. So what if my house drops in value? Houses are for shelter first, investment vehicle second.

>>19781189
It is but then it's spread over all the tenants in the unit. You save money because you dont have a house, you have a couple of rooms in a building (unless you're renting an entire house, in that case yeah it's not worth it)

It comes down to if you have a family or not. If you have a family, get a house, because you will make use of it (having your own garage, yard, etc). If you're a single guy you don't need whole house, you just need a bedroom, office and a kitchen

>>19781221
> Assuming your neighborhood doesn't get enriched and you get 2k forever.
Owning a house is just like a stock, dividends can get cut overnight and the price could drop to 0. Houses are worse, you gotta pay taxes just for owning them, the ultimate cuck investment.

>>19779879
I pay 1650 a month rent 6 of my last 10 years, owned for 4, im already in the hole 118,000 for rent at least I own 2 house now one I have a renter and the other Im living in. Ones is in el paso paid 200,000, I want the value to hit 150,000 so my taxes are less for a few years. Rent will stay the same

>>19779892
You mean like how the worlds governments have been more then happy to increase the wealth gap between the top 10% and the bottom 90%? Take a look at the past few months of the NYSE. We're witnessing one of the largest upward transfers of wealth in history.

>>19779879
man i fucking cant wait for 125k mcmansions

Charts point to a dip in 2023-2024

Which coincides with the BTC golden bull come 2023

Damn we gonna make it

Imagine thinking owning is a bad idea. Especially given the money is basically free to borrow. Who is spreading these obvious lies

>>19781371

The record low interest rate is gonna lead to some insane home prices in a few years.

>>19781230
>So what if my house drops in value?

that would mean the general economic conditions have deteriorated. and unless your mortgage is completely paid off, that means your overhead every month is the same to pay off the bank.

this is problem since recession/depression all individuals will have problems with cash flow.

you put had a down payment, and continual mortgage payments for say 10 years. now you can't pay for a few months. the bank owns the house now. they can sell the property for immediate gains. they have also been taking in principal plus interest payments on your home for the last 10 years. it's literally win win win for the bank.

the bank is your landlord until you pay off the mortgage.

you know shits in a bubble when people say it can never go down. whatever asset class we're talking about. number go up!

>>19781280
>be me
>2040
>house has been paid off for 20 years
>able to invest and save 80% of my income in that time
>also have an extra 24k a year from renters
>own my own home for 20 years
>have 500k in the bank

or
>rent for 20 years
>have 100k in the bank
>can't afford home because of inflation
>but at least i didn't have to pay taxes on my house

keep renting you retard.

>>19781378
Yup this

>>19781371
I just have such shit credit and such good cash flow that it's easier for me to save cash to buy and then cash out refi then it is for me to get a good mortgage.
I don't even know why my credit rating keeps going down I have literally never taken a loan but it does.
I know I could intentionally do shit like pay bills with credit cards and get it back up but eh at this point its literally quicker to just save up some cash for a starter home.

>>19780108
calm before the storm

>>19781221
pick up, king

>>19779879
Ill buy when it bursts

Im sorry for the anons who will have mortgages larger than the current price of they are properties.

>>19779879
>lol @ owning a house. So many threads lately about how renting is dumb. All good until your house loses half its value.

What if I inherited a paid off house and I want the market to crash so that my property value goes down so I get to pay less property taxes on it?

>>19779879
>be me
>be giant brain
>buy condo in city that already had an isolated housing crash
>pay off condo in 2 years
>live for free plus have equity
>low cost city means the property tax is only what a month of rentcucking would be
>price was already bottomed out so a crash won't affect it much more

Use the BIG BRAIN boys.

>>19782373
Knoxville?

>>19782291
My concern is that once it bursts, it does so along side the stock market, and we get to see what all that money does to consumer goods prices.

>>19781066
Explain for brainlet.

t. About to step out of rentcuckery and into MortgageChad.

>>19779879
Average rent: $1,500
Average mortgage: $1,100

see pic

rent increases an average of 3-5% per year

https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-investing/rental-properties/what-average-rent-increase-year/

we'll be nice and say 3% :)

after 30 years, a rentcuck will have, on average, pissed away OVER $700,000

SEVEN
HUNDRED
THOUSAND
DOLLARS

a MortgageChad™ mortgage will remain the same

homes have historically increased in value by 3-5% per year

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Price-History

at the end of 30 years the MortgageChad will pay ~$800/month on average for property taxes and money set aside for repairs

The MortgageaChad will have ~ $413,000 (based in a $170,000 house) in equity despite paying ~$300,000 (@ 3% interest) over the course of the loan WHICH INCLUDES REPAIRS
PROPERTY TAX
INSURANCE
INTEREST

FOUR
HUNDRED
THOUSAND
IN
EQUITY

stay retarded, rentcucks

>>19782703
im guessing jacksonville fag that always "brags"

>>19782703
Naw, but I did consider TN.

>>19782006
> be me
> 2040
> Retired at 40
> Married hot young college girl
> Lived in 30 different countries
> A Gorrillion foreign woman impregnated
> Bought stocks low, sold high
> Leave in caribbean heaven
> 3 house keepers
> Carefree lifestyle

or

> Buy house for 150k
> Pay 100k in interests over 30 years
> Pay 200k in property taxes over 30 years
> Paid 150k in repairs and upgrades over 30 years
> Submit to Wagie lifestyle for 30 years in same place
> Neighborhood overrun by niggers and mexicans
> Pensions cut
> Every year a new rent nigger destroys my house
> Rent nigger protected by law
> House still worth 150k

>>19781198
This is what I came to this thread for. Thanks, anon.

>>19782754
He's showing a home price index which gives you a graph of growth over several years for average home prices. The gray bars are the recessions that supposed "crashed the market" for housing. As you can see if you zoom out they are just little speed bumps, but /biz/ has the attention span of a gnat.

>>19782877
checked

>>19779892
The elites fucking hate the middle class. They want a poor retarded lower class they can easily rule over.

>>19779879
Why do you think the housing shills have been all over /biz/? They're clearly trying to unload their bags. Anyone who fell for it honestly deserves it.

>>19784050

>no leverage

The entire point of real estate investing is to access easy 500%+ leverage.

>>19784195
The thing about leverage is that as fantastic as it is on the way up it’s absolutely devastating on the way down. If governments can’t or won’t continue to backstop it for whatever reason shit could get real real real fast

>looking to buy property soon
>if it crashes I buy during the crash and get a cheap house
>if it doesn't and increases it means the housing market is so ridiculously stable that a global pandemic won't cause the prices to drop
I'm ok with either.

>>19784353

The reason why banks are willing to loan you so much money for a house is because real estate market move at a snail's pace. A crash takes place over several years. No overnight flash crash, because a transaction take up to months to complete. Even these crashes are mild relative to other market.

>>19784050
This. These mortgagechad posts seem inorganic. Housing is sure to see 40%+ decline.

>>19784518
Imagine a protracted decline in prices then, perhaps one lasting several years. A depression if you will of some magnitude

>>19781258
You think taxes, utilities and repairs all happen in one lump payment or something?

>>19784695

I don't need to imagine, I'm invested in real estate and stocks. Real estate is a far less volatile market. The entire point of a slow crash is that it allows you to prepare for it without getting caught with your pants down. At lease from an investment point of view. People living in houses they can't afford is a completely different matter.

Even during this crisis, the stock market has crashed and mostly recovered and expected to crash again, while real estate have yet to budge, although it is expected to start in a year or two.

>>19784774
Depends where you are: real estate is all about location as they say. Anywhere reliant on Chinese money to fuel their local bubble is starting to sweat

>>19781221
>sharing your house with people
yuck

I’ve been watching my local market the last 8 months, looking to buy soon, finally have my down payment. The only change I’ve seen with pandemic and massive unemployment is that homes for sale supply is low. So prices stay stable near me. In big cities homes still selling for thousands over asking price. Not worried, I do want to wait for July 1/October 1 economic numbers to come out. Long term good deal regardless.

>>19780480
Then you’ll sell it to me for 1BTC.

>>19784819

All these crashes end up being is a black friday sales for the people sitting on piles and piles of cash and gigantic REIT to scoop up more asset for their portfolio. Niggerville, USA tend to be places that suffer the most decline, due to financial uncertainty of its inhabitant, while richer and nicer neighborhoods tend to simply weather the storm, so prices don't drop much, because no one is putting their houses up for sale.

>>19781348
>it's now in 2023 instead of 2021

>>19779892
feds is happy to prints all ur purchasing power away, i dont see why they the wont take ur house too.

>>19779879
I think it will be a race between the value of houses going up vs. the dollar's purchasing power falling. I'm gambling on housing prices falling for a bit because of evictions being reinstated again, but beyond that I'm not sure what will happen.

Any idea about the Canadian market I've been priced out for 20 years. It's crazy.
The way I see it is it is so illiquid nothing major will happen unless banks start repossessing. You'd see a revolution on the streets over homes if that happens I think

>>19785151
>Vancouver
my condolences

fire sales will only happen if some crazy systemic shock and no bailout occurs and repossession does happen. if things just correct on their own through the market - buyers and sellers coming to agreement at a fair price this is going to be drawn out over many years and I don't see it correcting majorly.

>>19785151
Me too fren. I still can’t quite wrap my head around how completely we’ve been sold out for the filthiest sort of money imaginable. Oh well, at least prime minister blackface legalized weed so I can numb myself without fear of reprisals

>>19785167
I don't think I'll ever buy here I can get some okay places in the middle of nowhere outside of Canada for way under $100,000. maybe i'll inherit my parent's place but that's about it.

>>19779892
>He thinks young people will buy houses
Oh no no no no

>>19785264
They’ll just import people who will happily take on massive debt. Everything is a Ponzi scheme at this point.

People always look at their home like some kind of investment. While equity is a potential asset it isn't a particularly liquid one and the rest is a liability. You've got to live somewhere however so ideally you look at the numbers where you want to live and take the worst choice. For me buying a house at a 'fair non bubble inflated' price and just living there is way cheaper than renting. By non bubble inflated I mean buy one before some cunt tries to tart it up and flip it on. Average house cost here is 220k. I bought mine for 120k because it needs about 60k worth of work. If it'd had that work it'd be worth 220k. I save about 5% of the value each year and pay out maintenance with that. Every now and then I tackle one or two jobs which might set me back a few thousand. Too many people grow up with parents in a house which is basically the product of nearing the end of two adults working life. Of course the fit and finish on a place owned by two elderly people who've worked their whole life to get there is to a high standard. People expect to move into the same at 25 or something. Crazy.

>>19780124
Yeah no shit you retard, you don't buy a house with the intention of selling it for a huge gain in 5 years. You live in it, pay it off in 15 years and then sell it for a massive profit in 25 years.

>>19785336
part of me wonders if the US and Canada are transitioning into being like a third world Asian country where multiple generations end up living in the same small house or apartment because no one can afford anything

>>19785394
What’s funny about it to me is that Canada, just for example, is fucking huge. Yuge. All the immigrants settle in Vancouver and Toronto driving prices to nosebleed level meanwhile there are vast tracts of wilderness. Vast. It’s kinda stupid if you really think about it

>>19785433
the problem is that all the IT jobs that are importing those immigrants aren't located in the woods

>>19785394
yes that is exactly what is going to happen. long multi bedroom apartments/condos

>>19779879
Inflation finds its way into increased asset prices. You are literally retarded if you aren't buying a house as a store of value against inflation. Your mortgage will be locked in at a fraction of the dollar value a decade from now due to money printing

>>19779879
I hope you're right. I have $125k on the sidelines , 80K LINK ready to sell half at the next top, and just bought 50k DMG on bamboo relay.

Bought my house 8 years ago for 215k UK colonial pounds. Now 'worth' over 300k. Before this I spent 5 years renting and I regret every fucking day of it. My mortgage now is only just over 100k. Don't throw your money away renting.

>>19785292

And what happens when those people decide to leave?

>>19785382

And then Obongo decided you needed black neighbors for the sake of diversity

There is no replacement to owning land.

>>19785772

Some of the best properties to get are in urban neighborhoods that were black owned in the 1970s and 1980s...