3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
So I'm sure a few of you have been seeing that post circulating around /biz/ today regarding the Fed and what it might be doing with bond yields (capping them and expanding fiscal stimulus). The post went on to explain that the Fed only had two options: Allow bond yields to increase thereby causing a stock market crash, or capping bond yields thereby stabilizing the equities market but simultaneously debasing the currency. I was talking to a friend about this and his comment was "well what if bond yields simply stabilize around where they're at?" After thinking about it I really don't have a good answer especially since I am just starting to delve into what makes the bond markets work. Can someone enlighten me as to what the answer would be to that question and why bond yields must either increase or be capped? Thanks in advance and sorry that this post isn't about cryptocoins.
>>19669109money velocity is slowing down, which is bad because this is deflation. keeping yields where they are won’t solve this. need to continually decease yields to exert inflationary pressure to offset this.
>>19669193Yes but no velocity + increase supply = stagflation => hyperinflation
>>19669193money velocity slowing down doesnt necessarily mean deflation what it means is money velocity is slowing down. what will happen is INFLATION and lots of it. the US dollar will become worthless toilet paper like zimbabwe
>>19669232This
>>19669193Couldn't you just make the argument that the velocity of money will steadily increase as coronashit restrictions are lifted and life goes back to "normal" for most people? That would begin to move us toward inflation thereby eliminating the need to decrease bond yields.
for reference, this is the post OP is referring to.
No one has moneyInflation will never happenRetards
>>19669109I was the one who made that post >>9621142The problem is that, as stocks go up, bonds become increasingly undesirable. The yields are already so low that almost nobody wants them. So yields will never stabilize; there will inevitably come a day when they go too high and crash the market. A second problem is that yields, even at the pitiful level where they are right now, might already be too high to prop the market up. It collapsed 7% today, as we saw. This might be the beginning of the end.
I want jews to step in and save us from chynah
>>19669295Should have added a third problem: Yields are only kept low by means of printing trillions of dollars. This is unsustainable, and yet it cannot be reversed--because yields cannot be allowed to rise. Inflation makes real yields go lower, and so this, in turn, is slowly and inevitably going to crash the bond market.
>>19669295What is the actual issue with equities rising and bond desirability decreasing? If yields continue to remain low and people decide to park their money in stocks, why would yields ever increase and why would bonds even be a consideration as a viable financial tool? What is the consequence of that?
What the fuck this is huge
>>19669379P. E. ratios are already far higher than they ever were in all of human history. Much higher than during the Dotcom bubble. There comes a point where parking your money in stocks doesn't make any sense. You're effectively holding worthless pieces of paper. At some point something becomes so overvalued that it's only going higher on the basis of the greater fool theory, like Hertz stock; and, in the long run, that is simply unsustainable. No bubble can last forever.The other issue is, of course, that stocks will inevitably crash once hyperinflation takes over; which it eventually will, because money-printing alone is suppressing yields (>>19669370). When Volcker allowed yields to reach true price-discovery in the 80s, they went to 20%. If that happened today, everything would collapse. Stocks and real estate would go down 90%, public schools would disappear, social security, medicare, pensions--all gone in the blink of an eye. So anybody who understands the economy knows that stocks are not a long-term store of value. That's why gold is going to go up the way it did in the 70s and 80s.
>>19669285I am going to kill myself because of this post
>>19669494Buy silver, anon. NOW
>>19669285Thanks. High iq post
>>19669470So my question then would be this: If we have been doing tons of Q.E. this whole time in order to suppress bond yields and prevent an equities market crash, why have we not already seen the consequences in terms of accelerating inflation? To the average person, the logic would be to keep printing money in order to prevent collapse because it has worked up to this point. I'm in agreement that it can't go on forever but what leads you to believe it can't go on for 2, 4, 10, or 20 more years before the price must be paid?
>>19669696Until now, the central bankers have managed to push a lot of the inflation into assets rather than the real economy. But this has created such a horrific depression, and gap between rich and poor, that they cannot get away with the same trick a second time. According to John Williams of Shadowstats, real unemployment is 40%. They are going to have to drop helicopter money on people this time in order to prevent a violent revolution. Helicopter money, in its turn, will push up consumer prices.Besides, we are already seeing inflation. See beef, lumber. Williams says that real inflation has been 5-10%. I'm seeing even mainstream websites take note of this now--it's not simply ZeroHedge et al. I was checking the dollar index on MarketWatch just now and saw this article:"The government says there’s no inflation — except for the things people are actually buying"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-can-there-be-no-inflation-if-the-things-we-are-actually-buying-are-more-expensive-2020-06-10?mod=bnbhLook at the comments section. Every single person agrees with the article."The most important and expensive things in people's lives have been climbing like crazy for decades, all while inflation has remained "stubbornly low." Housing, healthcare, childcare, transportation, food, and education are all extremely expensive and getting more expensive every year and yet somehow I'm supposed to be excited because flat screen TVs are cheaper than ever?"
>>19669821P. S. Dominic Frisby, an economist who writes for MoneyWeek, just published a video giving ten reasons why inflation may show itself in the real economy this time. One example is the trade-war with China, another is the disruption in supply-chains owing to the coronavirus shutdowns.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaJ0DdOWxKA
>>19669849Anon, as a young person with little debt, a steady job and decent savings.. what can I do to prepare for an event like this?
>>19669944You probably know my opinion already, which is to invest in gold. If the markets are about to crash, there might be a temporary selloff in PMs, as there was in March. (This is much more likely to happen to silver than to gold.) If there is, then make that your entry point; but if not, just get in whenever you can.This is how to invest:1) APMEX, SD Bullion, JM Bullion, Miles Franklin, SchiffGold, are examples of credible bullion dealers in the U. S. If you buy hold-in-hand physical, you will have to pay a premium of at least 4%. To make up for this, buy CGT-free coins--in your case, these are American Eagles. While the stock-market trader who makes a million dollars has to pay $200,000 to the government, you will keep everything you gain.2) To avoid paying high premiums, get an account on GoldMoney or BullionVault.com, where the premium will only be 0.50%--the same as it is for buying cryptocurrency on Coinbase. On these websites, you can buy real bullion which is held offshore in countries like Switzerland and Singapore. When the government confiscated gold in 1933, offshore bullion was left untouched.3) You can also buy gold and silver mining stocks on any stock-broker. The GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, are the best indices for this. The miners are leveraged ways to make money on precious metals. If metals go up, they go up far more, and vice versa. For reference, when silver went up from 1 dollar to 2.5 dollars, the average small-cap silver miner went up 150x (not 150%). $100,000 was turned into 15 million. In 2008, those who invested in First Majestic made 17x their money.4) Do not buy SLV or GLD. These are paper ponzi schemes without the metals which are said to back them. To learn more about this, listen to some of the recent interviews on Arcadia Economics.
Bond yields will cap themselves as long as we avoid NIRP
>>19670021Thank you friend. I will look back on this thread some time in the future and remember the anon who saved me from the 2nd Great Depression
>perhaps the smartest thread on this board right now>page 11of course, if it isnt some new shitcoin IPO or jailbait pic why woulf it be populargod I fucking hate this board
>>19670021kys peter
>>19669944Buy the bottom anon. This is a great opportunity to get a nice start. T. In same boat
>>19670119Thank you. I hope that my advice to you is correct. I can't guarantee it, but I have tried to tell you what I've done to protect my own self and what I believe and explained why I believe it.
>>19670021Would silver be as good an investment as gold? Please explain to this brainlett mr.anon, thank you.
>>19670118Honestly I'm balls deep into Statera but I'm silently reading this thread and telling my friends about it. Even if nobody replies, the information moves around.
>>19670162Gold is guaranteed to go up, because central banks hold it as money. Silver is very likely to go up even more, but not guaranteed to do so, because some people argue that it is now a monetary and not an industrial metal. I disagree with those people, and hold half my savings in silver; but it is an argument which is at least worth considering.If the markets are about to crash again, silver may or may not sell off again, as it did in March. If it does sell off, then make that your entry point. If silver goes down to $12 again and the miners go down 90%, don't hesitate to buy everything you can get your hands on.
>>19670162Gold is guaranteed to go up, because central banks hold it as money. Silver is very likely to go up even more, but not guaranteed to do so, because some people argue that it is nowan industrial and not a monetary metal. I disagree with those people, and hold half my savings in silver; but it is an argument which is at least worth considering. Neil McCoy Ward and David Brady have gone all in on silver and they are people whom I greatly respect.If the markets are about to crash again, silver may or may not sell off again, as it did in March. If it does sell off, then make that your entry point. If silver goes down to $12 again and the miners go down 90%, don't hesitate to buy everything you can possibly get your hands on.
>>19670226Thank you fren, I was thinking about buying 500oz of silver coins soon but the premiums on them make me hesitant. I wonder if I should wait for the scenario you described in order to get the best bang dor my buck. I worry about buying bars because of the capital taxes involved.
>>19670251Based, will look into those two guys.
>>19669370Can you explain a bit more on how yields are being suppressed through printing/other activities? It seems as if you are saying that yields want to rise but aren't being allowed to do so?Why should they want to rise (in either nominal/real terms) and what is the incentive for the government to suppress them?
>>19669696>why haven't we already seen the consequences in terms of accelerating inflationI would argue we have. Stocks being at the highest P/E ratios ever, real estate being higher than it was in 2008, these are both symptoms of hyperinflation isolated in financial asset prices.
>>19669109Brainlet here, what field should I look into to understand what yields and bonds do to the market? Is that a macroeconomics thing or something else?
>>19670329Normal interest rates, as determined by the market, should be about 5-10%. That's the historic trend. When Volcker allowed the market to discover them after the inflationary 70s, interest-rates got up to 20%. The economy is far worse now than it was then, so there's no telling how high interest-rates ought to be at the present time. But the economy is so weak and indebted at this point that even 2% interest-rates might crash the economy and the markets. Anything over 3% is definitely unsustainable. We saw 3% crash the markets in late 2018, and the economy has got a lot worse since then, because of all the additional Q. E.Basically, this is how things work:Our Western economies are living so beyond their means that we can only fund ourselves by borrowing. We do this by selling bonds to foreign investors. If yields on these bonds went to even 5%, we'd be bankrupt and the markets would collapse; so our central banks drive yields down artificially by doing something called Q. E. This means printing trillions in order to buy bonds and create artificial demand. Q. E. means inflation, and yields represent risk-free return. Lower risk-free return and more inflation mean that people are encouraged to retreat into assets in order to protect their money. This is why central bank policies are destroying Western economies, and why the gap between rich and poor was never greater. The top 1% own most stocks and real-estate, so Q. E. benefits them at the expense of everybody else. Ordinary people can no longer afford houses. Wages are stagnant.Instead of letting asset-bubbles deflate, our governments keep reinflating them and widening the gap between rich and poor. They do this because the top 1% own most of the assets, and don't want to let them fall. First they reinflated the Dotcom bubble, then the 2008 housing bubble, and now they are doing the same with the Everything Bubble. Except this time they are out of ammunition, since real yields have gone negative.
>>19670446quantum economics. The fundamental laws don't apply and we have to make new rules.
bump
>>19670021Anon would you recommend this app? I keep things tighter on my phone.
>>19669277Yes, but that doesn't help us in the time being, only in the future.
>>19670546kek
>>19669285bitcoin
>>19669109you're a fucking retard. treasury yields are set daily by demand. private bond yields are set by the parties who buy and sell them. the fed can only change the fed funds rate. please literally kill yourself.
>>19670508
>>19670709or just buy gold and silver
>>19670708They set Fed funds. They drive down yields with Q. E. Artificial demand.
>>19670635I'm not sure, I don't know anything about it. I tend just to check the gold price several times a day on goldprice or Kitco.
>>19670308Just in case you want a list of people on Youtube whom I follow in general, this is it:Uneducated EconomistManeco64Palisade RadioMining Stock EducationbelangpDominic Frisby: Money, Markets & Other MattersPeter SchiffMike MaloneyGregory MannarinoMcAlvany FinancialGeorge GammonIlluminati SilverGreg HunterDaniel PronkNeil McCoy WardI Love ProsperityLiberty and FinanceKitco NewsArcadia EconomicsKatusa ResearchGold and Alternative InvestmentsGoldMoneyBaby Farm - Stock Market ResearchCambridge House InternationalITM Trading, IncSilver Bullion TVTrader UniversityJohn HowellAndrei JikhBull Boom - Bear BustEpic EconomistGold and Silver AssetsGold NewsletterInvesting NewsMises MediaRon Paul - Liberty and FinanceRoadtoRootaSD BullionTheDailyGoldNoble Gold InvestmentsIan SmithSilverDoctorsElite Investor TVAs Good As Gold AustraliaLife Growth AcademyPhysical Gold FundWallStForMainStThe Atlantis ReportNugget's NewsFSN GoldandSilverCooper Academy - InvestingThe Dollar VigilanteThe Rich Dad ChannelJunius Maltby
>>19669109UBI will come in the form of Fedcoin. It'll be pegged on a 1/1 ratio with USD, but it'll be the defacto currency of the "underclass". It won't necessarily be backed by anything (or "the working American" lmao aliens), but by issuing it, it basically just becomes another form of credit that the Fed can make money on. You'll be able to swap it thru your bank/app/etc but there will probably be some bullshit legislation that forces companies to pay taxes/oil/forex bullshit to keep USD fiat as #1
>>19671385goddamn that's a lot of people
>>19671685Has taken me years to accumulate it and find all these people. Hope that others find it useful.
>>19670709what is FFR?Fed Fund Rate?
>>19671725Basically, there are two kinds of interest-rates, short-term rates and long-term rates. Fed Funds, or short-term rates, are the rates which the central bank instructs local banks to lend at. The Fed controls these directly. They have already been at at 0%. Long-term rates, or yields, are the interest-rates which are paid back to foreign investors who purchase bonds. These can only be driven down by Q. E., or printing money to purchase bonds so as to create artificial demand for them.
>>19671693ty i'll look into them
Neither of these two options will happen imminently... what will happen is stocks will continue to flounder prompting more QE... Yields will continue on their long term structural path of decline and we will experience decades of stagflation
>>19671725Basically, there are two kinds of interest-rates, short-term rates and long-term rates. Fed Funds, or short-term rates, are the rates which the central bank instructs local banks to lend at. The Fed controls these directly. They have already been set at 0%. Long-term rates, or yields, are the interest-rates which are paid to foreign investors who purchase bonds. These can only be driven down by Q. E., or printing money to purchase bonds so as to create artificial demand for them. Driving either of these rates low creates asset-bubbles; in the case of Fed funds, because people have less incentive to put money in the bank, so they buy houses or stocks; in the case of yields, because people have less motive to purchase bonds, which represent risk-free return; so they buy houses or stocks instead.
>>19671753what's the point of Q.E. (denominated in dollars) to buy bonds (also denominated in dollars)?is it essentially the fed giving dollars to the government (the bond sellers) for "free"?
>>19671809>>19671786
>>19671809Buy purchasing bonds, the fed is pushing the last met they used to pay for them out to the banking system which will then, in theory, be fractionally reserved and multiplied infinite times (bc reserve ratio is zero)
>>19671882So one would think this would be inflationary, and it would be if this was 30 years ago and the principles of an econ 101 textbook still apply, however, modern money creation and globalism has killed all semblance of traditional economic law
>>19671882obviously this can only go on for so longwhen do we start to see the cracks in the dam before it bursts and everyone drowns?
>>19671809 Sorry, you were replying to >>19671786Q. E. is about short-termism and enriching the ruling class:1) When yields are low, governments can live beyond their means and borrow exorbitant amounts of money.2) When yields are low, the prices of equities and real estate become vastly inflated; this enriches the top 1%, who own half of these.3) Once you drive down yields, it becomes a vicious cycle. Allow them to go up, and you crash assets. So, when you get a bust in the economy, it's easier to delay the problem and make it even worse by reinflating the bubble rather than solve it and clear out the toxic debt and mal-investment in the economy. The Dotcom bubble was reinflated by low interest rates under Greenspan; this caused the 2008 housing bubble, which was inflated again by Bernanke; now we are in the Everything Bubble. But this one can't be reinflated without completely trashing the dollar and leading to a hyperinflationary collapse, because yields are now really negative. In 2008 they were still nominally 5%, so the Fed had some ammunition left.
>>19671915Look to Japan as a template, this can conceivable go on for decades... This the phrase "don't fight the fed"
>>19671932Japan only hobbles on because it has the rest of the world to trade with. When America collapses, the whole world will go into a depression. There is no America for America to be what America is for Japan. Also, the Japanese stock-market has been a disaster for thirty years. It still hasn't recovered. Gold has done well in Japan, just as it did in the Great Depression, a fact which disproves the theory of some that gold doesn't thrive under deflation. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5ffEORwWkk.).)
In short, yields will stay low and there will be no hyperinflation until the rest of the world loses faith in the American govt, the fed, and the dollar... All of these fancy terms, equations, and strategies and it all boils down to one simple question, does a majority of the world believe that, if given l $1 u.s. dollar, will someone in another country accept it for a liter of oil
>>19671915David Brady says to expect high inflation and an explosion in the price of gold this year. Expect inflation to get gradually worse and worse, possibly even to become hyperinflation, until, finally, they pull the plug in 2023 or 2024 and the whole system crashes down into the worst depression the world has ever seen.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e7LI_r4tQs
>>19671932if japan is an example, wont our system carry on for another 50+ years?people can hardly think 5 years ahead, none the less 50
>>19671964I was referring to the stagflation, the constant buying of all assets, the aging demographicThe whole world wouldn't necessarily go into depression, what if the agent for collapse is China and Russia setting up an alternate to SWIFT, China unpegs the yuan, backs it with basket of hard commodities and, becomes the defacto Petro yuan..not saying this is likely bc China isn't exactly the pillar of economic health, but in a scenario like this, half of the world gets burnt and half becomes rich as fuck
>>19671922>yields are now really negativeis that because current rates are below inflation levels?sorry for so many questions, i have a lot to learn
>>19672055Ten-year-yield is currently 0.675; but, according to John Williams of ShadowStats, inflation is between 5 and 10% per annum. So real rates are already negative.>>19672047I agree that the rest of the world, in the medium- and long-term, will benefit from the collapse of the dollar. But in the short term there will be a sharp downturn everywhere. While the current system continues to hobble on, nobody will benefit, because the real economy is completely trashed. It has to be rebuilt in the wake of the great collapse.
>>19672055>is that because current rates are below inflation levels?I realize that I didn't answer you directly, only indirectly. The answer is yes. This is why bonds were colloquially called "certificates of confiscation" in the 70s and 80s; because, despite the fact that they nominally gave you a certain rate of return, inflation was so bad that, in terms of real purchasing power, you lent the government $200,000 and got back only $150,000. This is why gold went 25x.
The Fed can’t do much else besides providing liquidity into the market, especially now that rates are zero. We won’t go negative, ever. There is no way to restore confidence into the problem, and that is the worst problem of all.
>>19669285there is always a 3rd option.>FEDcoin (fiat debt instrument) is being inflated on purpose so that the US treasury can issue sound money backed by gold leaving the central bank and their ilk holding worthless bagsdon't fall for jew FUD
Zerohedge had a comprehensive article a few weeks ago explaining why the market needed to crash in June and why QE would need to be restarted.. it was basically because $1trillion in debt was coming due in June and that type of oversupply would throw everything into a spiral
>>19672114that would be nutshow would the money rush into gold and not other assets like land and stocks?when do people say "i will get better returns by buying gold" than trying to buy into stocks?
>>19672136We can and absolutely will go negative (in nominal terms)
How do we feel about AUY?
>>19672136>We won’t go negative, ever.iirc europe has done NIRP (if i spelled that right) and they haven't crashed and burned yetas insane as negative rates sound, would america not be able to do negative rates, or would it cause everything else to explode?
>>19672154i love reading zero hedge for entertainmentthey're always permabears so it's hard to tell when "a broken clock is right twice a day"any link by chance?
>>19672163Gold and commodities have never been so undervalued compared to stocks and real-estate. Stocks have the highest P. E. ratios in history, and houses are eight times earnings. Both are inflated by artificial asset-buying, and both might crash at any time. Gold isn't inflated, nor does it crash with the markets (as we saw in March), and so is a good-value way to protect one's money.The reason why gold went up so high in 1970 is because it had been artificially suppressed at 35 dollars an ounce since 1933. The U. S. lied to the world and said that the dollar was as good as gold; when it revealed this was a fraud, and that it didn't have the gold which it said it did, gold immediately accounted for 40 years of inflation.
>>19672231I should add to this that high inflation destroys the value of stocks. It wreaks such havoc on the real economy that the only way to protect yourself from the general mayhem is to go into gold. So in times of high inflation, gold not only equals but outperforms all other asset-classes.
>>19672216Yes, you have to take a lot of their stuff with a grain of salt, but at the same time, they also put out some great research and insight, they need to just stick with the wall St analysis shit they do, but then it loses its entertainment valuehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/992-billion-reasons-why-fed-needs-another-market-crash-next-month
>>19672231the US didn't lie the FED did. they are separate entities. one will survive this because they are causing it (the US treasury) and one will not and be left with worthless paper and massive debt (the FED). US treasury has been importing record amounts of gold for months. anyone with a brain who can think outside the central banking box can see this. the only ones REEEEEEEing about it are the ones who have no clue or are in cahoots with the FED scam.
>>19672302based, ty
>>19672303Like Gregory Mannarino, I can't really bring myself to believe the Qanon conspiracy. Trump should have revealed the Fed's scam by now and appointed Peter Schiff as Secretary of the Treasury rather than continue the same failed policies which all other U. S. presidents have done. In fact, not only has he continued them, but he has done so to a greater extent than ever before. He never says that the Fed has done too much. He only says that it has done too little. He wants negative rates. More Q. E. More stimulus.
>>19670118Could it be because this is Business and finance and this belongs to a more politically oriented board? Macroeconomics isn’t a topic usually discussed on biz and never has been. You will find plenty of posts about this on pol
>>19672303You have that backwards. The treasury (the american people) has all the debt and worthless paper. The FED owns 460 tonnes of gold, owns nearly $2 trillion in mortgages and is now buying up all the corporations. THE BIGGEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN HISTORY.
>>19672361>board is literally called "buisness and FINANCE">gets upset when we talk about FINANCEcome on anon
>>19672355checkedfair enough. people will have to see it for themselves to be able to comprehend a better way. if he does it too soon, they'll all shout DICTATOR! the world be shown the FED policies are corrupt and the treasury is doing that now in real time, due to it now being in control of the FED. the smart play is to be in gold or treasuries.
>>19672371the treasury has the assets paid for by the FED. pic related
I've been telling something akin to this, but with less granular resolution than >>19669295, for months. The only answer I've been getting was "dollar milkshake theory". Thanks anon, for confirming I wasn't insane.
>>19672558should've read the rest of the thread before replying
>>19672558Dollar milkshake theory seems to be collapsing every day. Dollar index crashed below 96 recently, I believe. Dollar is only up now in anticipation of the markets melting down again. I conjecture that Peter Schiff and not Brent Johnson will ultimately turn out to be correct. Thank you for the compliment.
>>19672182Negative rates just would not work because people would rather sit on their cash than pay negative rates to keep it in some bank account. Negative rates would exacerbate the lack of confidence as in the economy as well. The Fed did right decision by keep rates low and confirming they will stay low for the next two years.
>>19672656Problem is that the Fed didn't go far enough. In order to prop up stocks, they either needed to implement YCC in the bond market, or negative short-term interest-rates for bank deposits, or both. I believe that this is why the market is crashing.
This thread is way too high of quality to be on /biz/ wtf
>>19672740is there a perfect amount of QE? if so, can they balance the economy with it for another decade or so? i can see an economy where every warning sign is flashing but numbers keep going up. Is that what the last 12 years have been?
>>19670021>You can also buy gold and silver mining stocks on any stock-broker.What is the best way to do this? Sorry if this is a dumbass question. I am just a line cook who has saved up some fiat looking to get out of poverty. I have 2oz of gold and 150oz of silver but want to make money, not just protect my purchasing power.Can I do this on that Robinhood app I heard of? Should do it on Robinhood, even if I can?I only have around 10k will they even let me make an account to buy mining stocks with that little?
>>19672794I don't think so, no. We're going to need trillions in Q. E. every year just to keep this ponzi-scheme afloat. The longer it goes on, the more money the bankers need to inject into the system in a vicious circle. Nominal rates were 5% in 2008. Stocks and real-estate crashed. Q. E. started--made an even larger bubble. As a consequence of this, in 2018, a mere 3% in nominal rates was enough to crash the market. Q. E. has since driven them down to 0.6% and even then the markets are crashing. Hard to see how this can go on for more than a few years longer.
>>19672799I live in the U. K., so don't know what American stock-brokers to recommend. I'm sure you can buy the miners on Robinhood, but, as far as I know, on Robinhood you are really trading on a dark pool and don't really own your stocks. Although I may be wrong about that. Look for a stock-broker, any stock-broker, and you should find the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ on them. If not, then their components, like Newmont, Franco-Nevada, First Majestic, etc., which you can discover by googling "[index name] holdings." Be careful about buying mining stocks in the immediate future. If the markets melt down again, they might temporarily plummet, as they did in March; this is definitely your entry-point if this happens. If they don't crash then you will simply have to get in at whatever price seems reasonable.
>>19672638>conveniently ignores >>19672478to continue FUDno need to reply. this is for the lurkers.
>>19672912I'm not 3N61wppC, the person you're talking with.
bump for rare good biz thread
So to put this in real termsBond yields = price of govt debtDebt is getting more expensive as govt has printed trillions it can never pay back through taxesFed needs bond yields to not crash but the only way to do this is to keep printing increasing amounts of money Printing more money for overpriced bonds gives investors/banks more cash to spend on stocks despite the actual value of the stocks going way down The old capitalist economic system is crashing as needed to happen to make way for the future, the federal government simply cannot deal with the situation, life is not gonna be easy if you’re a dependent person like a social security retiree, welfare dependent or government worker and solutions in the future are going to have to come from the ground up at the community level Also, federal student loans are finally gonna get that bailout as inflation makes them a fraction of what they were lol
OP here thanks so much for all the replies I’m soaking in as much of this as I can. Let’s keep this going so we can all learn
>>19672478Yes, that anon is trying to pump gold no matter what, yet, the underlying point still stands. Either the market and real state plummet or we get fly to hyperinflation in venezuelan levels. The treasury buying securities with the feds money is coherent with trying avoid scenario 1.
>>19669109Those are man arms
>>19673048How is it ever a bad idea to at least hold some physical gold? 5-10% is cheap insurance
>>19671385Jesus, thanks fren
>>19673027>Bond yields = price of govt debtYes, or the return which is paid to an investor for lending money to the government.>Debt is getting more expensive as govt has printed trillions it can never pay back through taxesYes--foreign investors are getting less and less interested in U. S. bonds., because they can see how much debt the U. S. has, to the point where it can never possibly pay it back. Also because the yields are so low, and inflation is so high. This means that the Fed needs to print more and more money to suppress yields in a vicious cycle.>Fed needs bond yields to not crash but the only way to do this is to keep printing increasing amounts of moneyOne correction: The Fed needs the bond market not to crash. In other words, it needs yields not to go up. A bond market crash means that yields go up, because yields go up when people lose interest in buying bonds.>Printing more money for overpriced bonds gives investors/banks more cash to spend on stocks despite the actual value of the stocks going way downThe 1% already own half the stocks and half the real-estate. Q. E. encourages people to put money in the stock market and real-estate, and so to inflate the prices of these things; because it reduces the level of risk-free return. This is why we have such enormous asset-bubbles. Houses at 8x earnings; P. E. ratios unprecedented.>The old capitalist economic system is crashing What we have is actually the opposite of capitalism. It's simply socialism for the rich. True capitalism would be a gold standard and to have the free market set interest-rates, along with a balanced budget. Dominic Frisby, an economist who writes for MoneyWeek, explains this concisely here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvL_Dm2d99Ahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx16a72j__8>Also, federal student loans are finally gonna get that bailout as inflation makes them a fraction of what they were lolYes. Inflation punishes savers, and rewards debtors.
>>19673083I never said it was a bad idea. I only pointed out that there is a gold bug bias in the thread. I've got my gold stash.
needs update
This is my interpretation:fed buys bonds to give liquidity, but this cratered yields and so banks with money dont want to lend because there is no return and everyone thinks the bubble is going to pop.retail investors are going nuts because they all saw the meme of wsb faggots getting rich of otm options in march and think they can 200iq it, they aren't spending money anyways because everything is closed, so it goes into robinhood.the pandemic is still happening, meaning everything is closed, and it will be along fucking time before things get to normal, meaning lots of stressed companiesyields go up = fed stopped buying = people left holding worthless assets = crashyields go down = no liquidity anyways so bubble just grows bigger.eventually economic reality will catch up when stimulus runs out, mbs start to default, and companies go bankrupt (rip bonds/ equities). the fed can save this, but it just kicks the whole thing down a couple months again.
>>19673177the final case is the fed goes big dick and decides to provide the same stimulus until we are out of the pandemic, which is like a year away, which means the bubble will just be so insanely big and fragile (since people will put money in riskier and riskier things) that it will all fall apart the second someone farts in its general direction.Then all the institutional investors who have been waiting on the sidelines with their billions swoop in and buy everything for pennies on the dollar, while all the noob retail investors get wiped out.
>>19673149Like David Brady, who didn't have any interest in precious metals until 2015, I wouldn't describe myself as a gold bug. It's simply that I have bought, and recommend others to buy, the best asset-class to protect themselves under the present circumstances--an inflationary environment with low real yields combined with inflated stock-prices and house-prices. There will be a time to sell gold and move into other asset classes. Mike Maloney shows how, if, since 1920, you had shifted between gold and real estate every time one or the other asset-class was comparatively undervalued, you could have turned 1 house into 480 houses. He calls this taking advantage of wealth cycles.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-knwwD-PZcThe Dow-Gold ratio will tell you when it is time to sell gold. See my picture. Gold would have to be worth $5000 in today's money before it would begin to get overvalued. I also do believe in the gold standard, but that's a separate question.
>>19671766This is my biggest fear. It disallows me to capitalize on exponential growth of my positions in PMs and erodes my lifestyle and ability to accumulate wealth.
Blessed thread. Is there a book that will teach me these economic concepts? I'm not looking for a deep dive, just actionable knowledge I can apply to trading equities
>>19671385imagine the smell
>>19669470>public schools would disappearAnd proof that this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. The jews will never allow one of their greatest goyim indoctrination tools to be discarded.
>>19673379>Irrational Exuberance by Shiller>Animal Spirits by ShillerYou are welcome.
>>19673177Yes, what you say is correct. I would only add that the coronavirus shutdowns only accelerated what was going to happen anyway. George Gammon shows that the economy has already been in a depression since 2008, if you calculate the figures accurately. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f098i4FKpK0.).) The stock-market ponzi scheme was already going to topple over soon, and the economy was destined to die; they probably contrived the coronavirus hoax as an excuse to cover themselves. Now they can blame everything on the shutdowns, as well as use the so-called pandemic to deprive people of their civil liberties and control them. David Brady, Ray Dalio, Ron Paul, and many others all predicted this crash long ago.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsbPDtSv8mwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lua9Ots5Pk8https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/ron-paul-us-barreling-towards-a-recession-and-theres-no-escape.htmlRay Dalio and Bridgewater, speaking to the Financial Times in Jan. 2020, long before the coronavirus panic started:https://www.ft.com/content/1c90b8d6-36f6-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4"Mr Jensen said he would not rule out the possibility that the Fed could slash rates to zero this year as it looks to avoid recession and disinflationary pressures.""Bridgewater's co-chief investment officer Greg Jensen told the Financial Times that gold prices could rally to $2,000 an ounce.""Although rate cuts by the Fed have bolstered equity markets, Mr Jensen said the group was “more cautious” on US stocks, describing them as “frothy”."Bridgewater accurately placed a $1.5 billion options bet that the stock market would plunge by March 2020:https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewater-bets-big-on-market-drop-11574418601
>>19672163some on here probably work for those late night infomercials gold gold gold the world is gonna collapse
>>19673443This. It's another reason why real estate will indefinitely stay in a bubble - the state needs inflated home prices because that means higher property taxes which means more money into the pockets of the public school district.
>>19673443If yields went to 20%, the American government would completely collapse. It wouldn't be able to service the deficit any longer. You have to understand that America only keeps going by borrowing money. It borrows money to pay for the interest on borrowed money. It can only do this while yields are miniscule. Even 5% yields would cripple the U. S. The national debt is presently 26 trillion.
>>19672355he had a mouth full of white mucus today on his post market report. Like Greg do you also have a mouth full of white mucus?
>>19669109MMT
buy gold and xrp
>>19673507Unless you show either1) How yields can go up without crashing the markets and the governmentor2) How yields can be suppressed without causing a crash in the bond-market and vicious circle of inflationThen my logic is absolutely unassailable.
>>19671385>muh ecelebOnly two channels you needgoldsilver (Mike Malony)Peter SchiffCheck out the hidden secrets of money series by malony
>>19673535>I don’t know how stamp rates work
>>19673601malony is great
>>19672837what do you guys mean when you talk about interest rates? interest rates of what? bonds? home loans? personal loans?
>>19673594Vicious circle of inflation can be remedied by raising taxes??
>>19673613You are correct anon, I don't haha. Elaborate pls.
>>19673594How much gold would I need to pay off a debt of 150k when all this takes place?
>>19673544>If yields went to 20%, the American government would completely collapse.Therefore the yields won't go to 20%.>he thinks ZOG is going to give up their global empire because they're not using muh shiny rocksYou are carrying on the proud goldbug tradition of being unaware of jewry.
>>19673652In the post you're quoting, I'm talking about long-term interest-rates, or yields. The bond market.>>19673655How is America going to find another several trillion dollars in taxes per annum just to suppress yields? Does that sound sustainable to you?
>>19673544MMT we got this. No worries.
>>19673688>Therefore the yields won't go to 20%.It's inevitable. Either America defaults now, and the whole system collapses, or America delays the problem for a few more years, hyperinflates the currency, and the whole system collapses anyway. There is no way of escaping the day of reckoning.
>>19673655Taxes contribute to inflation. Based anons are trying to reduce taxes to make products affordable in the upcoming collapse. Tariffs also increase inflation rates.
>>19673694yes + MMT.
>>19673658Property taxes assessed by municipalities (at least where I am) are typically calculated by essentially dividing the budget of the municipality by the number of dwellings weighted by their prices. To put it another way, property taxes are based more on the municipal budget than the home price as the inflation of real estate tends to float all boats, so to speak. Local rules may differ, but that’s pretty much how it works in America’s slightly retarded cousin to the north
>>19669821Even CNBC and other MSM is now acknowledging the real consumer inflation happening out there. Sarah Eisen BTFO somebody today by mentioning how the US has seen a significant spike in food prices lately
>>19673724Taxes suck money out of the economy but that causes inflation ?
>>19673735>>19673718MMT won't work. The inflation can't be redirected into asset-bubbles this time. There's 40% unemployment in the real economy according to John Williams of ShadowStats. If the government doesn't start dropping helicopter money on people on a regular basis, there is going to be a violent revolution. Helicopter money will inevitably lead to inflation in consumer prices. And we already have 5-10% in these per annum, according to Williams.
>>19673719Well you already know they will delay it.
>>19673719you said you live in the uk anon. fellow britbong here, what about buying gold britannias from the royal mint?should i buy 1/4 or 1oz coins?
>>19673681If we have hyperinflation, debt will get wiped out.
2 questions if anyone knows:1. My mom has a corporate pension, is she fucked will that crash and she not get her payments, will it not keep up with hyperinflation?2. I’m a teacher at a college, am I fucked? College still has to be a thing, right? They’ve got at least some income from tuition...
>>19673796Do you really think that will happen though?
>>19673789Always buy CGT-free coins, i. e. Britannias, that's my advice. That's the only benefit that can justify the 4% premium on hold-in-hand bullion. Otherwise, either buy on GoldMoney or BullionVault to pay a lower premium (0.50%) or get gold stocks to make leveraged gains, even if you are going to pay CGT on them.
>>19673808Yes you both are fucked by big 10 inch dick up your dry ass hole fucked. I'm virtually in the same boat if I get dumped on with my linkies.
>>19673768Tariffs on Chinese goods are an example but there was also the court ruling that allowed State sales tax to be enforced when buying goods online. The total cost of of goods and services rise for normies.
>>19673829thanks anon - saw that advice earlier. was just wondering if 1oz or 1/4oz coins would be easier to liquidate when the time comes? or is it a buy and hold to the end investment?sorry if these are stupid questions - just trying to understand the goldpill before swallowing it
>>1967377440% unemployment ?? I'd have to unpack that. People getting more from gov corona money to stay home or...? If unemployment is that deep can helicopter money cause and acceleration in money velocity to the point of causing inflation?
>>19673724>>19673774>>19673839Tapping out. I appreciate the push back. Always so much to learn. Rosary then to bed.
>>19673850You pay more of a premium on fractional gold, so, if you can afford it, definitely get one-ounce coins. The only problem with coins is that there is a serious danger that the U. K. government may try to confiscate bullion. They did so in (I believe) 1966, and banned people from owning more than four gold coins. So that is something to be aware of. That is why I prefer to own gold in vaults overseas, as well as gold stocks. If the U. K. government started persecuting gold-investors, I would probably flee the country. One strategy to follow is to hold your gold until rumours of confiscation abound, then to liquidate it and change into another asset-class, like real-estate. Or simply to hide it. If you don't pay more than either1) £5000 on a single purchase, or2) More than £10,000 in total purchases per annum,Bullion-dealers are not obliged to record your details and report your purchases to the government.
>>19669295Hey bro, I see you all the time in the /pmg/ threads. Wondering what your rebuttal is to pic related. Are you worried about government confiscation or outlawing of gold/silver, since both have happened before in times of extreme economic duress?
>>19673774Why would inflation be bad it it's aimed at the people? The debt is crippling people so if they provide printed money to offset the debt bubbles popping then that's the whole idea of the "release valve" for a debt bubble, right? The US needs the inflation to occur to offset the rising debt - why can't they target certain sectors for deflation while inflating others? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
Christ, after reading this whole thread I'm actually fucking terrified. I knew we were in a bubble, you would have to be a retard not to realize that once Trump took office and the stock market grew an extra pair of wings and soared to the skies. We will witness a recession the likes of which the world has never seen within my lifetime, worse than the Great Depression and global in nature and there's no amount of fiscal policy that can stop it save kicking the collapse farther down the road and more massive in nature.We're like Icarus, daddy Fed crafted us wings to fly and keeps them repaired as we fly higher and higher in the sky - but the wax will melt and we will experience the inevitable fall to the cold hard and unrelenting ground.
>>19669345this
>>19671932>>19671964Reminder that Japan is currently the #1 CREDITOR nationUSA is the #1 DEBTOR nation
>>19673944thanks for the information anon, you're doing god's work.from what i understand you hold a mixture of physical on hand and some vaulted overseas to hedge against confiscation?
>>19673989Have faith anon. There are those of us working every day to lessen the pain forthcoming. It starts with little things (you) can do every day. Refuse to play their game and find the others.
>>19673973Because afaik the fed doesn't have that power, they can only basically loan to banks by buying their bonds, giving money to people happens through the treasury? or banks through their loans, and the american political system is too fractured to provide that level of direction. Creating localized bubbles is extremely effective but requires lots of centralized power, Japan did it in their postwar period which was a large contributor to their economic miracle.
>>19669109Monetary policy is all pseudo-science, there is no way to predict it without critical insider info.
>>19674047Virtually everything I have is in BullionVault, GoldMoney, and in various miners. I'd say about 50% gold, 25% silver, 12.5% gold miners, 12.5% silver miners. Thank you for your kind words.>>19673973Inflation will wipe out debt, so that is one benefit to people. But it will also drive up prices of everyday goods to enormous levels. The standard of living will plummet. Inflation is absolute hell to live through.>>19673963I may be misunderstanding your picture, but, as far as I can see, it's referring to persecution of gold-investors. Forgive me if this is not pertinent to the point but this is what I would say:1) It is not certain that governments will try to confiscate bullion, only possible.2) In 1933, overseas bullion was not confiscated. Nor were gold stocks. People who invested in miners did extraordinarily well during the Great Depression. Homestake Mining stock rose from $80 in October, 1929 to $495 in December, 1935--a 500% increase, excluding dividends.
>>19672089I agree with you. But in the short-term we are seeing deflation, even by John Williams' own stats (pic related). Headline CPI is technically in deflation territory (negative) and real rates are currently rising. This is going to fuck over corporations over the course of the next few quarters when rolling over debt, let alone trying to issue any new debt.I'm looking at you, SHALE PATCH
>>19674093So basically there we need to be a "Strong Man" type response that rallies the nation around a restructuring? What about the Military - are they a wild card in this where if the US Economy starts to shake the bombs dropping make the world quake? If other economies are forced to buy debt to rebuild again due to - destruction - then is that a wildcard that's being underplayed? Just don't think the powers at be would sit back and let implosion happen while holding the worlds largest gun.
what if the gubmint just resets everything?
>>19674121For anyone who subscribes to RV check out an excellent interview from late last year with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl)"How Easy Money Enabled The Shale Evolution"
>>19672303>they are separate entitiesNot anymore lol
>>19673829You keep mentioning that sovereign coins are CGT-free but I can't find that info anywhere. e.g. Britbongs can sell their Brittanias tax free, Lards can sell their AGEs tax free, etc. Do you have a good website or primer on the laws that let this work? I just can't find anything and I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up in /pmg/ threads that I've lurked if it is true.I also asked the question in another thread that I've lost track of so if you answered already, sorry to ask again.
>>19674142I tend to think that the argument that the U. S. military could prop up a hyper-inflated dollar is to put the cart before the horse. Rome collapsed when it debased its currency, and could no longer pay its soldiers. So I don't see why the U. S. will be any different. Especially when it has serious competitors like Russia and China who have been hoarding gold since 2008. They can't be wiped out like Gaddafi with his gold dinar.
>>19674192Bullion dealers all advertise them as such; see e. g. Bullionbypost:https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-coins/britannia-1oz-gold-coin/britannia-1oz-gold-coin/"Gold Britannias are the most popular 1 oz gold coin for larger UK based private investors as they are Capital Gains Tax Free (CGT Exempt)."
>>19674192>>19674207I may have misunderstood you, since you are using the word sovereign. But, as it turns out, sovereigns are also CGT-free:https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-coins/full-sovereign-gold-coin/bullion-gold-sovereign/"Buy gold sovereigns coins. Gold sovereigns are very attractive to UK investors as due to their status as British Legal tender they are Capital Gains Tax Free (CGT Exempt)."
>>19669285>post ends in goldtismMassive grain of salt
>>19672837It's like a heroin addict. The more wall street gets addicted to the QE, the more QE is needed to sustain the high. The amount of money pumped into the system in 2008 was historic at the time, but it was nothing compared to what's being pumped in this time. The financial system is tolerant to the drug now. What worked a decade ago hardly has any effect today. Hell what worked even just a few MONTHS ago hardly has any effect today. Remember that QE4ever started last September
>>19670708>by demandDemand in a market where 30% of the bonds are owned by the fed, and if they think grills are too high, they can just buy more with their unlimited printing press. Not a market.
>>19670021I'm not living in the US, in fact I'm in France, but it's pretty guaranteed that the entire world will get affected by this. I'm only in crypto and never paid much attention to the rest. I suppose I should try to get my hands on some gold as well?
>>19673850Buy old sovereigns and your ancestors will shine upon you
>>19674256Not everything is like the emotional condition of your mother you fucking degenerate faggot
>>19673989This is why it is so important to raise awareness about the true root of the problem. To make sure that they don't re-write history and lie about what happened. They will try to blame it all on the coronavirus, I'm sure. We have to point out that the Peter Schiffs, the Ron Pauls, the Mike Maloneys, were warning about what was coming for years, and that they identified exactly what the problem was: central bank planning, fiat money, exorbitant spending, the death of the gold standard, and artificially low interest-rates. This is the only way in which we can draw good from evil in the coming calamity.
>>19674267I've always said that crypto may go 100x, or it may go to 0. So a person should only put 1 or 2% of their net-worth into it. That's what I've done. The fact that it's crashing with the markets right now is telling. Gold isn't doing that. We had the same situation in March.>>19674256Yes, you are completely correct. The economy is worse now than it was in 2008, in spite of the trillions in money printing. All it did was benefit the 1%, the people who own all the assets and equities already.
Or, you know.. They'll start a new war..
>>19671766>>19673322Unfortunately I think you describe a very possible scenario
>>19674196Agreed. Billionaire Peter Theil funded research into the hyper-inflation of Rome and its ultimate collapse back in 2010. LINK: https://malchow.com/inflation-and-the-decline-of-the-roman-empirePDF: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5386693ce4b05d183bf2dd16/t/53aca2bce4b0dcbdb88aad86/1403822780199/Malchow_QuantitativeEasingofRome.pdf However, if we're looking to time the collapse Rome's height is considered to be around 110AD. Took 100 years after the peak to start to reach the inflationary period of the Roman empire, and that was with Rome reaching the edges of what who they could attack to prop up their empire. There is the possibility for the U.S. that the Military is used in some capacity - which is likely why we see the rising hostility with China. Rome didn't have a China to defeat in 200AD. They controlled the entire known worlds economy.
>>19669109Yields : downFED : cocky, big lossVerasity : BOOM.VRA > BAT
>>19673735>>19673718kekI know you're trolling but some people might take you seriously, be careful. MMT is the most batshit insane keynesian delusion ever
>>19674116>Inflation is absolute hell to live through.Only if you have cash.
>>19669232Zimbabwe wasnt a world reserve currency
>>19674314Which will make the country poorer, unless you manage to send retirees and their wives to die in the front...
>>19674401Look into the book "When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Hyperinflation," by Adam Ferguson. Even if you protect yourself with gold and silver, society becomes a horrible place to live. People from the cities used to go out into the towns and villages and conduct raids on people. There were shortages of all the necessities of life. It was anarchy.
>>19674273It’s a fair analogy retard
>>19674150i imagine that would be by "cancelling all debts" which would destroy the selling of any treasury bonds, which means the government wouldn't be able to spend any money without insane taxes (i think)
>>19673815It's almost a certainty I think. In fact that's exactly what central governments want, especially the USA. They need inflation to wipe out debt because the largest pile of debt in human history is held by none other the US government. The whole ponzi scheme is centered around the false narrative that inflation is "necessary" to grow an economy. They'll tell you that deflation is bad because people will no longer buy things if the prices keep going down.But deflation is only bad when you have a crippled over-indebted economy like we do. If a REAL recession was allowed to happen where the debt gets deleveraged (and yes would cause a LOT of pain at this point), only then can a real recovery begin.The mid 1800s leading up into the early 1900s was arguably the most prosperous time in American history. The Industrial Revolution could have only happened the way it did because of true free market capitalism.Real wealth, real growth, this is when electric appliances started to become viable and the classic American dream came into focus. All of a sudden families could, for example, store perishable food at home for long periods of time in a magic box that kept things cold. Electric mixers, vacuum cleaners, fucking air conditioning, the 1880s through the 1920s must have been an amazing time to live through.And this greatest period of expansion and progress was all DEFLATIONARY. Get fucked Keynes, turns out that lower prices are good and demand doesn't fall as long as your economy isn't based on fucking debt like today
>>19674461Germany had other problems when that shit was happening.Inflation just make people that have cash instead of goods poorer, if you don't hoard fiat or bonds (which you should not) and got a productive job, inflation is not going to actually harm you.
>>19674461like they say, the 4 G'sGold, Grub, Guns, God
>>19674499checkedgod i wish the banker was a skinny twig so that this might have been the first CHAD vs VIRGIN meme
>>19674116>Inflation is absolute hell to live through.This. See Venezuela, Argentina
>>19674512Except that most of the things that might protect someone against inflation, things like productive land, rental properties, etc have already been bid to nosebleed levels by the last couple of cycles of inflation. We’re in an everything bubble
>>19674512You are also fucked if you are loaning money, which you should not be doing.>>19674518There will be no rioting in the street, just old people being fucked over.If you have debt, it is actually good for you.>>19674534The problem in those countries are related to closed and restricted markets, not exactly inflation. Now, I am not saying that inflation is good, just that it is not the apocalypse that morons have been preaching here.
>>19674499What if there's a deflationary crash - debt cleared - and while the bubble pops industries are nationalized and the government buys the industries that were inflated for pennies on the dollar? Citizens then get work programs via new government industries and the entire economy is refocused away from financial speculation/FIRE industries and towards industrialization again? Is that even a solution at this point? Would need laws prohibiting foreign investment so America doesn't get sniped by some foreign investors.
>>19674548If you are living somewhere with a minimum wage of $15 and shit like that? Sure.But there are still a bunch of places in the USA and even more in the World with interesting properties to be bought.
>>19674150>>19674467Couldn't be done unless all major debt-holding nations in the world come together at once and agree on the terms of the jubilee. If one or a couple of colluding nations agree (China, Russia) but then stab everyone else in the back at the last minute it won't end well for the USD. Ever play a game of Resistance lol?Reminder that pic related almost happened in 2008
can the USA really have hyperinflation as the police state of the world and the"current" market creator with dollars backing energy sales? seems like they'd start WW3 before letting hyperinflation happen
>>19674121>>19674152holy FUCK. Is that chart fucking realJesus christ US oil/shale companies are so goddamn turbofucked, especially if rates go upI think I finally understand why YCC will most likely happen. They just CAN'T let rates rise or our entire fucking energy sector will collapse
>>19674638> seems like they'd start WW3 before letting hyperinflation happenIt is not like a bankrupt nation like the USA can afford a really big war.This is the country that just lost a piece of territory to a crackhead rapper in a major city who had basedboys for troopers...
>>19670709interesting this show how current tactics keep pulling future wealth from young folks to pump up old folks. Something I suspected for years. What do you think will happen in the next 30 years when most of these old folks die. Where does all that wealth/bubble go?
>>19674638Exactly. Which is what maybe other powers are aware of and that's why you're seeing the division. If the US is divided then they cannot launch the offensive needed to prop up their economy. Money (Dollars) spent on military bases around the world during military operations just come right back to the US as those nations turn around and buy debt. Even if the debt is garbage - they have to do it. People might take all these defensive positions and then the US launches major military operations during a deflationary period.
>>19674694They could so long as energy is traded in dollars and money spent overseas comes right back to the US in the form of bond purchases.
>>19674700>>19674721you seem like you know what you're talking about, what is your speculation on what 5 years from now looks like?
>>19674700)(#Y(&*(@T$^&@T*^&$(Othat's like the setup for a sustainable war modelhow real is that
>>19674721The majority of that debt (77%) is owned by US citizens, with Japan at first place as far as foreign nations go and China in second place.Those citizens are the ones that would burn shit to the ground if they saw their country trying to steal from them - remember, a single ex-con got nationwide looting and rioting happening, and those are just a bunch of pissed off niggers, what do you think that will happen when white people actually get mad?
>>19674207>>19674227OK, in another thread you had specifically advised an anon to buy gold eagles because they would be CGF for them since they live in America. When I google these terms I just get more hits for UK gains laws. I am not sure that any of it applies to USA sales of bullion, unfortunately.
soon
>>19674466We now went from food analogies to weed analogies
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
>>19674842from what i remember hearing, bonds are the big dicks of the financial worldbonds have a fuck ton of sway in equity markets
>>19674800Which means the majority of the debt won't be called. US investors only account for 6.9 trillion. Wars for energy dominance and a monopoly on world energy would be a card the US could play to keep the bubble going - like I stated before, WAR is on the table for the US - it wasn't for Rome. However, that requires that the nation isn't being torn apart by internal division across diverse lines. Should that happen defense stocks could be back on the table as big winners. No idea what happens from here or I would be making bets. Already made money on the oil bumb and just sitting back taking in the news until I get a sense of my next entry.
>>19669285Most retarded thing I've ever read
>>19674908>US investors only account for 6.9 trillion. Get your facts right and try 20 trillion.
>>19674898Bond market is over TWICE as large as all equities
>>19673796>If we have hyperinflation, debt will get wiped out.https://www.law.cornell.edu/ucc/3/3-112https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-practical-effects-of-libor-s-phase-39385/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA4-SYt5K3M&t=903s
>>19674953Again - the Fed and US government aren't going to call their own debts if shit gets weird. private us investors were 32.5% back in 2018. You should be happy the US owns their own debt and has the biggest gun on the block.
>>19674589I said productive, not interesting. The point is to try and beat inflation, yeah?
>thinking the entire market is going to get fucked/hyper inflation/some doomsday scenario is going to happen>telling people to buy gold>gold that isn't even in your physical possessionthis is why i cant take anyone that says to buy gold seriously. its always the same. gold is an investment for pessimists and its not even a good one. if your doomsday scenario of preference happens you're just going to sell it for guns and ammo, so why not cut out the middleman? the best pessimistic investment is in yourself and your male friends. are your male friends useless homos or not? are you a useless homo? if yes cut it out before its too late. these things will serve you better than gold if real estate and stonks get dunked by 99% or w/e jewish shenanigans you think will happen.
>>19669109about 350
>>19675007Pirates sailed around the globe looking for buried treasure - but the real treasure was the friendships they made along the way.
>>19674849It was heroin, which is a much better analogy than weed or food. Alcohol addiction would also be acceptable: withdrawal from either can kill the subject
>>19674991I am sorry, but you are actually retarded and can't help a cretin understand something like this.>>19675003>this level of reading comprehensionAttaboy.>>19675007You can take your gold and move somewhere else. 9 times out of 10 doing so will be smarter than protecting a fucking bunker.
>>19675031Based
>>19675044Appreciate you trying.
>>19675044I’m just trying to refute your assertion that hyperinflation is no biggie and that there are easy ways that Joe Normie can protect himself against it. There are few bargains out there, but then maybe I’m just too lazy to look
>>19675073Joe Normie has no idea of how the economy works or that there are people thriving somewhere else. The whole USA educational system is made so Joe Normie never questions living as a willing slave to the previous generations trading his potential for cheap BigMacs.Profiting in America is about making Normie serve you instead of those that came before you.
>>19671766Stagflation was what hit us in the '70s and what Volker stopped. It took a sharp recession to get us out of it, but it was worth it. Powell doesn't have the guts for it, but the next fed pres will have to do it. Take the medicine and get better.
>>19674152>>19674644Yup. Shale companies were already fucked even when oil was back up in the 70s. They were losing money from the very beginning and were only made possible by all the low rates and issuing fucktons of debt. Now that debt is coming due.Many companies won't be able to service their debt. They'll be forced to either go bankrupt or issue even more debt at higher real rates just to pay the INTEREST on their current loans.
>>19670021American Eagle gold coins are taxed at 28% capital gains because the IRS deems them collectible... what did you mean about buying them?
>>19675118I can’t dispute that, it’s always been caveat emptor since people have been trading shiny rocks for feathers. You still haven’t provided any sort of meaningful argument for your assertion that hyperinflation is no biggie. It’ll be a shitshow of epic proportions
>>19675163That's why I'm long nicotine - I'll pay $40 a tin for chew if I need to during the dark ages. People want maslow needs filled when everything falls apart not shiny metal that's hard to divide for small purchases.
>>19672302The comments have gone downhill, though. After the election, the redneck mafia descended on zh like a plague of locusts. If Biden wins, those commenters might go back into their caves.
>>19669232It's funny because Zimbabwe uses US dollar now. Imagine if the dollar fails too. Kek
>>19671922This is why a non Jew is the fed chief those kikes new it was going to happen and put a goy to take the fall
>>19674304>mfw entire networth is in crypto
>>19675204The Big Fat Bastard doesn't even post anymore, just bots and MAGA crew.
>>19674803>>19675163I'm from the U. K. If I got it wrong about American laws with respect to paying CGT on legal tender coins, I'm sorry--I assumed it would be the same there as it is there. I believe that everything else which I have said in this thread is accurate.
>>19675180Jesus, anon, the point is that if you are Joe you are fucked no matter what, and if you are not, you become invulnerable by exploiting the extended Normie family.
>>19674267Yes, gold is good. In my opinion precious metals and crypto will be the future somehow. Don't buy gold off ebay though.
>>19675133I hope that's the case. However the situation is so bad now that this time around, a Volcker-style rate hike would fucking KILL the system. See >>19674152 >>19674644 >>19675142 . It would be such a historic collapse that the USA's status as a world superpower would be in jeopardy. War would be a real possibility.That's why, politically, we might not be able to go down that route. I agree that we need to take the hard chemotherapy now lest we suffer the terminal disease later. And I'm worried we have no politically palatable solution but to head for the terminal disease of inflation.But I hope you're right
>>19674803>>19675163I'm from the U. K. If I got it wrong about American laws with respect to paying CGT on legal tender coins, I'm sorry--I assumed that it would be the same there as it is here. I believe that everything else which I have said in this thread is accurate. American Eagles are still good to buy, because you can carry up to £10,000 on an aeroplane without declaring your holdings, and, for this purpose, the face-value of the coin is counted rather than the gold content. So you can flee the country on an aeroplane with £300,000 in gold coins if America looks as if it is about to start persecuting gold-investors.
>>19673140Big banks are buying bonds at auction and then 3 days later, selling them to the Fed at a slight profit. We're monetizing the debt which is the fast lane to economic hell. Soak the rich will be the big mantra when the Dems get control and I don't say that I blame them.
>>19675264Ok fair enough, I’m with you. How best to profit from the impending chaos? I’ve been stockpiling bic lighters but that’s about all I can think of
There is another way out of this that I believe is being played out. I call it the periodic flash crash wealth harvests.To prevent inflation, currency needs to be removed from the economy. So long as you can remove a proportional amount to what you’re pumping in, inflation will remain under control. For example, as a previous anon stated, taxes collected aren’t entirely spent. Believe it not, much of that money is simply removed.Another method is to engineer controlled and periodic “flash crashes” in the market — the rug pull. This is how you remove hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth at a time to counter the inflation being created. Much of the inflation is concentred in the financial markets, and this is one way to directly target that concentration.You can expect many more -10% to -20% crashes in the future, followed by sporadic periods of recovery. The market will not be allowed to reach total devastation (social chaos). Instead, inflation will be winded down in a controlled and imperceptible manner through these “periodic flash crash wealth harvests”Remember, all fiat currency is an illusion. It doesn’t really exist. All that matters is that the people remain productive, and so long as they’re blin to how their efforts are being harvested the game may go on.
>>19675199Miserable leaf here, the government has such excessive taxes that a tin costs ~ $30 CAD here and people still pay it. Reopen the fucking border to NY right fucking now!
>>19675299If you want to go full doomer - this is a good artical on the collapse of Argentina after the war with Britain and how it played out for the average joe in that nation. Vice industries always have a business in hard times - if you can stomach the negative impact overall to the society. http://www.survival-spot.com/survival-blog/argentina-collapse/
>>19675278I’m not convinced that it’s off the table. I mean look at the geopolitical state of the world when Volker ripped the bandaid off: the USSR was still a thing and ostensibly a major threat at the time, the Middle East was (haha was) a hornets nest stirred up by America’s support of Israel, Japan was rapidly approaching the US in manufacturing output, I’m sure there’s more. The point is that things were bad then too and they pulled it off.
>>19675327>All that matters is that the people remain productiveWhew, I sure am glad the USA is a highly productive nation that makes all their own products and isn't completely dependent on imports and 70% of GDP doesn't come from consumer spending!Oh wait
>>19669285what about other currencies? my understanding is if US dollar fails all fiat fails
>>19675299Fundamentals:>fall into huge debt, take advantage of all that crowdfunding shit and whatever else that you can, before shit hits the fan>buy shit that will retain value or buy/start a resilient business that you understand >hyperinflation hits, your shit is increasing in price way faster than the interest in those loans>pay as little as possible >enjoy getting shit for freeIf you get a loan to buy a farm worth one million, with an yearly profit of even $50K, at 8% interest, and the yearly inflation suddendly is at 200%, the lenders are paying you, not the other way around.
>>19674406and you should thank god it wasn't, if you live long enough you will see it happen to the USD though
>>19675163no
>>19675383Could work - if you live close to Medico or Canada go open a foreign bank account.
>>19675383I’ve given this some thought and I don’t have a good answer but it might be instructive to look at what happens when reserve currencies fail. It’s probably not a great example, but the fall of the pound sterling and the rise of the USD. Granted that was a fairly orderly transition, but it’s the most recent. Briefly: I’d expect a period of chaos as countries scramble to revalue everything, possibly in gold. Even as a stacker I honestly hope I don’t live to see the day as I’m pretty sure it’ll make the most recent chimpouts look like a Shriner parade
>>19673907>Rosary then to bed.Based fellow catholic. I will be praying the rosary as well, for both our souls and that we will be able to survive this. May we see another on judgment day and hopefully heaven
>>19675411I get it, I just somehow can’t get over the feeling that it’s reprehensible to participate in usury on either end. I’ve got a credit card, I’m not full retard on it, it just feels dirty to me
>>19675450Orderly so long as you ignore the world war that was fought prior.
>>19675380I work in manufacturing and it's incredibly sad to see how in my short lifetime, we produce less and less. It just doesn't make sense to make things in America when we can get people elsewhere in the world to make things better, for cheaper wages, with lower workplace requirements.I hope the rebalancing comes soon so that we retain as much of our manufacturing infrastructure and talent as possible, we are losing more every year.
>>19675480Some variation of what I just said is exactly what the ruling classes everywhere in the western world have been doing for decades to amass power and wealth.If you would rather remain a passive cuck while spending all your life in the receiving end of this practice, no one can help you.
>>19673907based
>>19675380Yeah, so consumer spending needs to be maintained at acceptable levels. Repeated rug pulls will now remove inflation at the cost of the capital class, to ease the consumer burden.
>>19674324Fucking sick. I love papers like this. Learning so much from this thread. Well, kind of more confirming my suspicions and articulating what I've been feeling better than I could.
>>19675542If the USA was to create a special "immigrant friendly" zone in subpopulated territories, with competitive legislation and little to no taxation, America could lead manufacturing after a decade.If there are going to be sweatshops, they might as well further domestic interests.
>>19675480Usury is a means of increasing the efficiency through which an individuals merits may allow them to accumulate wealth.It helps filters out the more deserving from the less, from an economic standpoint.
>>19675494Good point. I was only considering the aftermath, not the leadup. It’s admittedly not a great example, but they definitely do all seem to be pretty ugly. What a time to be alive!
>>19674324Incorrect.Romans were considered to be barbarians by the most advanced Chinese, with chinese goods being coveted in Rome while the opposite was not true.
>>19675545If you can’t beat them join them I suppose but I’m not sure if I’d rather be poor or sell out my principles, as retarded and ill-conceived as they might be
>>19674567What you are looking for a strong national socialist leader. This is hard in America because:A.) it is not homogeneous and is a multiracial abomination that can barely speak the same languageB.) we have lost much of our skilled labor to shipping off industry to China and most of that former labor to die of heroin overdoses.I hope I am wrong, I would like a non kiked system but the subversion of the states is so deep I feel we will be a warring Yugoslavia for the next decade.
thanks based thread frens
I’ve been preparing for this day for 12 years saving every penny I make avoiding all debt and being extremely frugal I doubted myself so many time’s along the way and it’s now finally happening
>>19675612https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Roman_relations"From Chinese sources it is known that other Roman luxury items were esteemed by the Chinese. These include gold-embroidered rugs and gold-coloured cloth, amber, asbestos cloth, and sea silk, which was a cloth made from the silk-like hairs of a Mediterranean shell-fish, the Pinna nobilis" Next.
>>19675350When I say the situation is so much worse today, I'm not talking about the global geopolitical situation. I'm talking about the largest everything/debt bubble in human history that exists today. Volcker could do what he did because companies weren't levered to the tits like they are now. I've circled on this chart how overleveraged the US was in 1979 when Volcker made his move, versus today
I have half of my NW in PM's and the other half in BCO, am I partially fucked or is the investment in security stock going to be worth it anons?
>>19675587We got that.It's called "Mexico"
>>19675908I’m fully expecting it to be a pretty bad scene and I definitely agree that the extent to which the world has levered up will make it that much worse, it just seems to be the ultimate endgame to a stagflationary scenario. We’re not there yet and it’s still an open question how things will play out. I think the USD has longer to run if, for no other reasons that there’s no better option to be the holder of the reserve currency and we haven’t had a war or a severe enough dislocation to force the transition. I’ll say it again: what a time to be alive!
>>19675929Depends. Read up on their 10k and on risk factors. Brinks vans were used a lot for retail chains like Target to move cash using Brinks. 53% of their core service is cash in transit and ATM retail services. Retail has been tanking and won't be recovering anytime soon. They also transfer high value things like diamonds and goods that are still tied to retail. Only 4% of their business is outside of this sphere. Honestly not a company I would expect to moon given the current retail environment.
>>19675999nice trips and thanks for the adviceCould be worse
>>19675278No solution but can kicking is politically palatable now, and that is the road to perdition. You'd need something to keep people from starving and off the streets, which wasn't needed then other than the usual. It cleared the way for the Reagan years and everyone forgot about it very quickly. Unfortunately, Reagan was hoodwinked by supply side economics just like Trump seems to be now with that idiot Kudlow whispering in his ear.
>>19672478does the treasury usually buy assets, at all?does the fed usually buy assets?which one is going brrrr?
>>19675542We lose a lot of engineering knowhow if we don't have our own manufacturing. Plus, we are at the mercy of our suppliers like China and if we can no longer control the sea lanes in a quasi war, we won't have anything on the Walmart shelves and that's very dangerous.
>>19675908Thanks for posting that chart. It's truly shocking.
>>19675908No way. They had to extend the y axis just to keep tracking it
>>19676146To say nothing of the fact that we’ve outsourced our manufacturing of critical medical supplies to a country that seems to have no qualms about intentionally lying about a viral outbreak in order to ensure that they don’t suffer a competitive disadvantage from it. Shit’s fucked up bro
>>19675421Yes
>>19675421https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/>being this sovereign citizen tier
>>19676259>>19675421Shoot meant to post image, not ctrl+v
Hey I've been trying to follow the thread but could it be possible to invasive deposit USD in foreign countries and overule the native currency to ward off inflation? Never really knew much about inflation till this thread heh. Fuck.
>>19671385No Max KeiserNGMI
>>19676426That’s part of how the reserve currency works: the holder, the US, is able to export inflation to countries that transact in USD. www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/03/08/fed-exports-inflation-stokes-revolutions/amp/
>>19669696Wtf youre talking about? The pe ratios and housing prices you see today are the result of a decade qe. Massive asset price inflation. The fed isn't even able to create consumer price inflation, the surplus money all goes into equities.
What you whiteness here is the normal endgame of any fiat currency. What follows is hyperinflation and a new currency and with it debt cut. That's a relatively cyclical occurence happening with most currencies that are devalued by a central institution to be able to handel debt (Reichsmark to D-Mark in 49 is a classic example). So nothing new, everybody's fucked because debts must disappear and debts are another mans equity. What's interesting here is that this happens with most currencies around the world at the moment and that also the world reserve currency is concerned this time. The outcome is basically unknown.
>>19676798>The outcome is basically unknown.I hope you're well versed in martial arts, marksmanship, military stuff and survivalist paranoid matters because you will need these in the upcoming years lmao
>>19676865It implies a big crash in equities, that doesn't mean there is war or sth.
Bump again for this high IQ thread
>>19677532True, nice to see among the usual shitcoin shilling threads
>>19672182All european banks are on the verge of collapse because of it.
>>19673989>We're like Icarus, daddy Fed crafted us wings to fly and keeps them repaired as we fly higher and higher in the sky - but the wax will melt and we will experience the inevitable fall to the cold hard and unrelenting ground.Every time I see red on the chart I yell "we flew too close to the sun!" Well, not every time. Kinda often. True story.
>>19670133Retard
>>19672755All money printing is theft and therefore will not work. All initiation of force will yield bad results, always. Basing a society on theft is never going to work because people want a sense of fairness.
>>19672361>You will find plenty of posts about this on polNo you won’t. All /pol/ concerns itself with is the black/white dichotomy
>>19676426We’ve already been doing this for decades now
>>19673989> We're like Icarus, daddy Fed crafted us wings to fly and keeps them repaired as we fly higher and higher in the sky - but the wax will melt and we will experience the inevitable fall to the cold hard and unrelenting ground.That is a grand but very applicable comparison, poetic anon here
So, Anons. In case of hyperinflation happening in US, will it cause inflation in the currencies as well? EUR, GBP, RUB?
>>19674937Then provide counter arguments.Your post adds nothing.
>>19670021why not other ETFs, e.g. ZGLD for gold (Zurich Cantonal Bank Gold ETF)
>>19670021>check GDX and SIL charts>they've gone down during Corona just as steeply as every other stock and gone up more during the rally than the average
>>19669285>Buffet hording silverfake and gay. we know how much Buffet hates PM.The only ting buffet is hoarding is McDonalds and Coke.
Bump, it's a shame the only non-retarded thread on biz today is already pushed down by those hundreds of shitcoin shilling idiots.
>>19672361what the fuck are you talking about? I guess you've been here after 2017 right?
>>19670709>>19671761>>19672418>>19673121>>19673766>>19673907>>19674324>>19674518>>19674534>>19674973>>19675234>>19675287>>19678720This thread is going to die soon and most of you probably won't see this message, but I just wanted to thank you all for your posts and say that I appreciate them, even though I didn’t answer them.>>19678766Many gold stocks 300% or more off the lows. If you bought them after the March crash you made a fortune. GDX and GDXJ have made new highs and have entered into a new bull market. We may see a temporary setback soon, as David Brady says, because of tapered liquidity, but once the Fed announces YCC and or negative Fed fund rates in order to stop the stock-market from crashing, gold stocks will soar to unprecedented heights.https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/fed-tapers-liquidity-raising-the-risk-of-further-downside-david-brady-june-4-2020.htmlWhether you wait to see if the gold stocks crash again along with the general melt-down (they may not: see https://goldsilver.com/blog/how-would-gold-perform-in-a-second-stock-market-crash/)) or buy in now and hold through the temporary crash is your choice.>>19678820>fake and gay. we know how much Buffet hates PM.Not true about silver. "Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U. S. government." -- Warren Buffethttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcM6aqWUm6k
Thanks for the econanons who contributed for enlightening the brainlets
truly great thread, this one's getting saved