/biz/ - Business & Finance

I actually meant exchanging bets, like, in Betfair or something. Trading.

>>19451490
>>19451685
It's like poker. Almost everyone who plays think they're at least somewhat good. In reality, something along the lines of 95% end up losing money long term, 5% are good enough to break even long term, 4% are small winners long term, 1% makes good money.
Almost all the people who make good money (and aren't just lucky) do it for a living and spend countless hours researching, making models etc.
> "inb4 I made $x last year sports betting"
It's called variance. It's highly unlikely that you can beat the house long term.

>>19451490
It's like poker: Almost everyone who plays think they're at least somewhat good. In reality, something along the lines of 90% end up losing money long term, 5% are good enough to break even long term, 4% are small winners long term, and <1% makes good money.
Almost all the people who make good money (and aren't just lucky) do it for a living and spend countless hours researching, making models etc.
> "inb4 I made $x last year sports betting"
It's called variance. It's highly unlikely that you can beat the house long term.

>>19451760
/thread

>>19451760
>>19451773
Would you say the same thing about trading stocks, for example?

>>19451777
> day trading
Yes, absolutely. The more liquid an asset is the more unlikely it is that you can beat the market. You're compeeting against algos (75%+ of most market volumes) and funds that have access to 100x more data/ information than you do, they have huge teams of very smart people working for them, they invest millions of dollars in research and developing models, they have access to tools that you probably don't even know exist etc.
So ask yourself, what exactly is it that you know/ can do that funds that blow tens (or even hundreds) of millions of dollars on research/ modelling don't know/ can't do?
Of course there are a few extremely talented people who can beat the markets (especially very illiquid markets), but most of the time it's just variance.
> Investing
No, because the expected return of most assets are positive. 95%+ retail investors shouldn't be trading, they should be buying and holding. And only sell when they need money or need to rebalance/ diversify their holdings.

>>19451490
you can earn a decent return by arbitrage betting, there are certain programs (also some free programs) that follows the bets on various betting sites and let you know about the current arbitrage opportunities.

>>19451925
Could you name some of them?

You can earn sportsbet dividends if you invest in ECIT.

>>19451760
probably this

>>19451760
This.
You can always putz around with betting for fun, but you'll pretty much blow your stack eventually because the sure thing turns into an upset over and over and over.
I have met some that I would call successful, but they are literally obsessive about it and have a well disciplined plan.

>>19451760
good answer

>>19451936
https://p2pold.wpengine.com/best-sports-arbing-software/

I can share my wisdom . But are you willing to listen?

How do you plan on sports betting if there's no more sports?

>>19453350
Bundes going on, Korean baseball going on, Russian table tennis, also la liga and epl starting in june