/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19386078
Oil is fucked today.

>>19386078
Up to a decent start today again for tankers! WTI and oil stocks down, brent up. EURN baby dividend has been paid, sitting comfy. Thanks for the updated OP

Hello sailors!

>>19386201
They paid baby divvy footanon? Thought it was just the ex-divi date, need to see where that money is

HOLD ON SEA CAT

>>19386438
Oh, I meant ex-divvy. Didn't mean to be misleading. They haven't paid us for real yet, just took out the divvy. Looks like the "hell hours" are effective today, but considering THIS, few cents max, is the best morning drops they can give today might be a pretty decent day too.

>>19386438
It was the ex divendend date. That's why EURN dropped today.

>>19386483
Honestly anon. We're doing really well so far. This is nothing after what happened when the DHT earnings came in. That shit gave us all heart attacks.

>>19386483
>>19386496
Thanks chums.

>hell hours are back
Let them come, going from -15% to +4% overall the past month has made these battered hands truly seaworthy.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mukelani-dimba-97234a149?originalSubdomain=za

it's the real puppet MASTER!

>>19386201
i'm in brent and NAT and comfy as fuck, 9% gains in 2 days.

>>19386576
I'm still down 4 percent but those dividends are gonna make up for my losses. It's all thanks to these threads and you kind anons for keeping my hands tight. May we all prosper together frens

>>19386526
Bought in late, what happened, can you catch me up?

>>19386526
I know right. We already bounced back/bouncing back today too, just common morning sell off shenanigans. This is absolutely nothing at all compared to earnings. The stress was heavy seeing positive news day after day and then drops of like 5 and even 10%. I feel nothing seeing 1% down today when it was dipping.

>>19386576
We are very ready. I have now rode from initial investment to -26% at its lowest. I am now +3% right now with the hell hours still, counting from when I first started investing in tankers. THIS IS NOTHING. MY HANDS ARE IRON.

>>19386616
The last two days I basically went up 14% then another 12%. I am still ecstatic.

>>19386626
We shall, don't you worry.

>>19386642
Sorta bought at the top brother. The whole tanker market sunk so hard right after DHT earnings came in.

>>19386078
oil chad here.

I dont want to post in the same thread as the tanker wojaks

>>19386626
It's not for the faint of heart anon, i'm glad you're still with us. Onward and upward!

>>19386642
Each day another tanker company posted record earnings, stock tanked 5-10% for no explicable reason, pulled other tankers down with them - was crazy.

>>19386670
based

>>19386700
Your loss, we're a nice bunch.

>>19386721
I'm new to stocks in general and this whole experience has given so much valuable lessons. Most importantly, to hold on despite the amount of fudding and dumping intuitions do to try and shake you out despite the fact we all knew how valuable tankers can be at this point in time.

>>19386766
trust fundamental analysis, even when speculation overrides.

>>19386700
>oil chad
>tanker wojacks
Never gonna make it

>>19386766
Yep - consistently lacking conviction in your picks (provided you had sound reason to invest in the first place) will harm your long term returns far more than a bit of short term misery. Pretty ballsy to go for tankers when you're new, kudos.

listen to this anon >>19386877.

>>19386700
Oil is doing pretty poor lately I hear. We are beyond caring for the temporary red. We only see the eternal green past the horizon. That and we hit reset essentially on the whole month of pain prior so there isn't a single angry wojack here. Only happy ones.

>>19386877
Wise words. The market is a voting machine short term, but it is a weighing machine long term.

Nna is being a little workhouse, total green by 10%.
>>19386766
Just remember cold dead hands and Lawrence will guide you.

Rates looking good.

>>19386721
You are based too anon.

>>19387157
Wew. Rates keep going back up, market conditions had a slump but now we are improving steadily. And future conditions look like it might get better and better for us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TankersInt/status/1266016857519280129

>(TCE: RV USD 71.98K @ 43.99 days / Actual USD 69.16K @ 45.94 days) 0 idle days

Jesus fucking christ, another one

Good lad, J. Mintzmyer, has a new interview out.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349219-torm-plcs-management-team-on-product-tanker-market-podcast

>>19387215
Yeah, hopefully it doesn't nosedive to 20k or something overnight. Joakim Hannisdahl might get his hyper-bearish scenario if that happens. The volatility of this sector is nuts.

"United States Crude Oil Inventories"

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75

Are we gonna make it????

>>19387369
What is the hyper-bearish scenario? Surely rates couldn't tank to that in one night, that is ridiculous with current market conditions.

>>19387552
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1263157813477597185
Just an example of how little of an up side he thinks this sector has, he has a target price of 10$ for TNK, which he rated sell. In fact, he rated all crude tanker companies as sell w/ target prices far bellow what they're trading at right now.

>>19386766
i'm 100% in tankers
comfy as fuck

>>19387157
Bearish!
Everything good for tankers is bearish.
That explains today's drop!

>>19387552
The hyper-bearish scenario is that nobody is exporting oil, and all floating storage is emptied first. Thus, time charter and spot rates collapse and destroy any cash flow to tanker companies in a time-frame of a quarter or less and will persist for years or more. Unlikely, but it's the thesis that most people seem to believe about tankers. That is more or less the scenario that Joakim thinks his models are predicting. But he did not predict or expect this spike in rates. So all is still very murky.

>>19387547
HORRRRY SHIIIIIIIT

>>19387763
I ain't registering for anything, I incognito online. But from the gist of replies and here, I guess "no more storage soon because demand, too little supply so no shipping, oil all gone." I don't understand the hyper-bearish target prices and outlook on rates, there is just no reason why rates would go down to nothing and even moreso nothing to justify share prices falling by that much considering the year's performance, 20k still covering operation, and scrap future. Not to mention all possible scenarios that can jack up rates higher due to pandemic and geopolitics. And also this bullshit we are seeing with oil like on the EIA report an anon linked. The market for oil and tankers are moreso in total chaos than anything, and chaos is always good for rates.

>>19387835
This might unironically be true and I hate it. Rates plummet, tankers go up. Rates go up and oil supply has a heart attack, tankers go down. Kek. Though really, it is just hell hours shit, and if it stays the rest of the day then reasonable small correction. Nothing bearish with this performance.

>>19387945
Yea, that is what I thought it meant. Because it is reasonable. But at the same time....what, tankers aren't gonna be paid demurrage? People are gonna just stop producing and exporting oil for profit? I think it is more realistic that tankers are gonna keep getting paid because oil is gonna keep being produced and if the time comes where it isn't produced then they will just jack up demurrage rates as they have been and get steady income anyways. I think it will be more realistic that domestic production is cut hard, exports still exist, imports are slowly taken in after storage runs lower from lower domestic production and eventually higher demand as it takes time to up domestic production, all while exports continue piling up, slowing down. Tankers storing are slowly offloaded while export production picks back up, by the time tankers are offloaded they got more oil to ship.

If we assume oil storage and market is irrational, tankers win. if we assume it is rational, might as well assume it is VERY rational which then will still be good for tankers. Least it is my opinion but I am not an expert analyst. His point is good, but I don't see it.

>/tog/
More like /bag/
Boat Anchor General

>>19386078
OIL PUMPING

>>19387963
>>19387963

Yeah, I really can't take Joakim's report seriously when he has some of these companies trading far below liquidation value and has a very low scarping rate factored into his model. The hyper-bearish tanker position just seems like anti-tanker sentiment animated and given a megaphone. In my opinion, it's myopic. Tanker's may be volatile, but hyper-bear justification seems to be that global oil trade will stall out for a year or two and tanker management teams will just sit there with their thumbs up their asses and allow their company and share prices to be gutted. I'm not an expert analysis either, but the hyper-bearish scenario seems too much. If it gets that bad for tankers, imagine how bad its gonna get for oil companies. Low exportation and low oil prices for a couple quarters will murder them.

Seems the scheduled tanker dump is in full swing.

Yeah, I really can't take Joakim's report seriously when he has some of these companies trading far below liquidation value and has a very low scrapping rate factored into his model. The hyper-bearish tanker position just seems like anti-tanker sentiment animated and given a megaphone. In my opinion, it's myopic. Tanker's may be volatile, but hyper-bear justification seems to be that global oil trade will stall out for a year or two and tanker management teams will just sit there with their thumbs up their asses and allow their companies and share prices to be gutted. I'm not an expert analyst either, but the hyper-bearish scenario seems too much. If it gets that bad for tankers, imagine how bad its gonna get for oil companies. Low exportation and low oil prices for a couple quarters will murder them.

Seems the scheduled tanker dump is in full swing.

>>19388512
to
>>19388076
>>19387963

>>19388456
>>19388478
>>19388512
That's another point. Just what on earth is going to happen to oil companies if they aren't exporting for 2 fricken years? Nothing will survive. If things are that bad then oil chads are fucked too. And trading below what they would be worth if they sold all their assets AND subtracted debt? Without the tactical nuke that is scrapping? Those hypotheticals are ridiculous for sure, but "logical" considering what SHOULD be done about the crisis. This is business and humans though, thinking in those terms will get you killed. If they think oil companies are gonna close up and accept defeat then they underestimate human greed. Nobody is gonna kindly say "yea, we are gonna stop all production, close up, liquidate, and say good day for the general good of the oil market." They are gonna keep producing until prices fall to 0 and they bust, or those they thrust their storage problems onto find a short term solution to keep things functioning in the meanwhile. And if an apocalypse happens for oil, well, we got bigger issues and most likely governments will force a solution and shit goes to normal anyways. We will rocket excess oil into space to get rid of it if we have to.

>>19388512
Plus I don't care about today's dump if it stays, I am still green on everything except DHT, same as yesterday. Bring the correction, come on.

>>19388512
I just hope that it doesn't dump again tomorrow.

Bought UCO yesterday, sold today. Made profit. Oil will be 35 by next week. Buying more.

I'm looking closely at buying into STNG or TNK - from what I can gather TNK are using their 2020 windfall to pay down debt/shore up their balance sheet, which I like. Any anon with exposure to both (or either) give me a basic gestalt?

>>19389108
I only own STNG, but I will just mention STNG is doing the same thing paying down their debt.

>>19389138
Intradestring, thanks anon. There really doesn't seem to be a lot to separate them other than fleet composition; TNK seems to have a lot more mid-phat ships under their belt, with STNG seemingly smaller end for the most part. Both have their place, i'll need to have a think.

Also nice image lmao

>>19389354
Stng dominates the product tanker field. From a diversification approach it's a good pick to grab that part of the market. Consider dipping into:
>crude oil tankers
>product
> chemical
> offshore/shuttle
>natural gas tankers

Tankies gtfo, oil ONLY

>>19389733
we can be friends brother

>>19389733
We carry you oil cucks, you need us.

>>19389820
Rent free

>>19389836
>vlcc rates
>rent free
Nice try

>>19389354
Thanks. I got too many dabs honestly. But also what >>19389692 said. If you want product tanker exposure, STNG is the way to go.

>>19389792
THIS. We are both down right now, but we also can both go up right now. Also we literally depend on each other to live.

OIL MY DUDES

why is mro down 5%

>>19390843
because oil and tankers are both shitting the bed except for a select few stocks while the price per barrel goes up. Why? I don't know, the market is being highly irrational right now in terms of what goes up and down. Still green in all but DHT, so to me nothing has changed today in my eyes.

HLX is a fountain of wealth. Keeps going up no matter green or red day

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-lower-as-rising-crude-inventories-stir-doubts-over-recovery-in-demand-2020-05-28
>5 million drawdown
>crude prices skyrocket
>7 million stockpile build
>crude prices skyrocket


FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCKING FUCK THE FUCKY FUCK FUCKING FUCKERS FUUUUUUUU

I'm ok.

i told everybody here to stay a million miles away from ANYTHING connected to oil this shit is manipulated beyond your wildest dreams and nobody is EVER going to do anything about it

>FRO going positive now
Truly the champion of tanker stocks.

>>19391766
Oil pricing hasn't made sense for a while, just let it ride.

>>19391819
Long as my stocks eventually go up, I don't care.

>>19391819
stay away or get rich

>>19391902
>zero details
cool story bro

>>19388898
>Not buying UCO during the real dip
Shame

>>19392057
I bought in just the other day as well for around ~20 but are they changing the way they evaluate UCO to prevent it from going negative? excuse my autism

>>19391856
Nna hs for some reason been strong too.

>>19392127
Honestly, I just heard oil was so cheap it had gone negative and bought the cheapest looking stocks with good 5 year spreads. My sole regret is not doubling down ever harder on this stuff but I'm learning as I go.

>>19392358
I've been doing the same. bought 5 shares of USO and already seeing nice gains looking at marathon as well as some E&P penny stocks. I'm staying away from midstreams for the moment though. I just got in the game a month ago after thinking about it for the past 6 months