/biz/ - Business & Finance

No. Fuck you. Make up your own mind

>>19306479
Drawing support-resistace lines and especiaally the diagonal ones is a meme to be sure. However having a system of multiple indicators where each gives a unique interpretation of price signals is paramount in any trading system

>newfag
TA isn't about prediction

>>19306812
fuck you

>>19306928
Wrong

Ever looked at the list of billionaires. Dozens of them attribute their net worth to technical analysis.

Op, TA is a meme. Big banks still employ them to have a look at it, and to have all possible information. But in the end, it is a meme. Markets are unpredictable, always, except through foreseeable events.
TA is nothing but a bit of an extra 'maybe'

Its purely a coincidence that prices rise/fall precisely to/from fibonacci levels and thusly they should be ignored because price movements are simply dice rolls

Consider that 80% of trading volume is from meme algorithms that use meme lines to buy/sell. When enough AI are using the same lines it becomes a self-fulfilling meme.

>>19306479
>Clearly looking at just the price of an asset over time is completely retarded.
Yeah you should just randomly throw money at retarded shitcoins that have already dumped into the ground.

Do you think at all when you post?

>>19307095
>draw 12 lines on a screen
>holy shit price bounced off of one

>>19306479
It is mostly a meme, but it is also kind of not a meme but the sole reason that there are enough idiots who believe it is not a meme. It's a self fulfilling prophecy that slightly improves your odds under some circumstances.

>>19307199
I don't know why and how i need to explain things to a bunch of illiterate newfags.

>>19307065
Elaborate

RSI and the moving averages are usually good indicators..but more important is market sentiment. Like BTC was at 9.8k and everything looked ok then that news came out about that early BTC wallet moving and next thing you know its down $600. Its shit that TA cant take into consideration that moves the price more often than not

>>19307248
You're about 10% as bright as you think you are.

>>19307338
If you don't read anything about the TA subject, your opinion is clearly discarded.

news, fundamentals and even hype mean fuck all

this is what really happened
dead cat breakout due to memelines

>>19306479
Stock market TA is more legit than crypto TA in my experience... crypto is more erratic.

The point of TA isn't to be right 100% of the time it's to give you an edge about where a stock is going in the future. If it was a meme then it wouldn't be widely used by institutional money and successful retail traders alike.

People think because TA isn't 100% accurate all the time it's a meme but it's not, it's more like 60-80% accurate in my experience.

>>19307384
Fact is that there's not a single TA for every chart, but multiple ones, and multiple timeframes too, and there are multiple TA styles, this means that it requres time to be skilled in this field.

>>19307173
My motivation for the question was actually because I'm trying to develop a crypto price predictor using machine learning. I'm thinking about what data to give the system to aid the price prediction, and some previous work has used things like Google search trends, information about blockchain usage and accounts, and other global financial indicators such like the S+P 500. It appears to me that using this additional data paints a much better picture than just looking at price over time.

>>19307199
I think the self-fulfilling prophecy theory is the only one that holds weight quite frankly.

Imagine not using all the tools available to you

In the end it’s all just educated guesses and probability

It's a social construct. We believe it is real and because of that it becomes real. Many people look at TA to base their trading strategies on, as well as countless of tradingbots and tools.
Just buy randomly and see how that works out for you.

>>19307428
Yes exactly, a smart trader will wait and see multiple indicators across different time frames, increasing the conviction of the trade and chance for profit.

its only a meme for the retards on this board.
TA is the only reason iam still in crypto

>>19307384

yeah I agree it works a lot better with traditional markets, crypto is way too reactive to any slight little bit of bad news. I mean shit, with crypto you can buy something and the TA looks good and next thing the fuckin team exit scams or gets hacked and suddenly you're down 90% with no way out.

No harm knowing some basic TA, its like having an extra tool in your toolbox

>>19307470
It really doesn't matter now because your original post was absolute dogshit and now every reply will be equally dogshit. You should have just lead with that shit about machine learning don't know why you didn't.

> there are bot that trade crypto
> bots use TA
> understand TA, can predict bot trends to a certain degree
> read news articles about crypto, such as Goldman Sachs having some sort of event on Bitcoin the 27th of May
> Know there's a good chance whales will probably pump up the price randomly before the event
> After dump, use TA to ride pumps, sell before dumps

You can still get fucked, but it's better than just trading randomly.

TA requires decent volume say 15,000,000 plus/day.

>>19307503
>>19307521
>>19307384
I hear there's plenty of faith in TA here, but I'm not hearing any real explanations as to why it works aside from the self-fulfilling prophecy
>>19307335
This argument is far more compelling. Surely if you're day trading you have to also check twitter to see if satoshi is about to dump his coins

And if you're trying to predict long-term price for BTC well, each year the yearly lows are increasing right, so buy at a low or average point for the year and wait for a year or two and you're guaranteed to make money right? Not if satoshi starts selling or miners collude on a 51% attack. You can't just look at price over time to make educated decisions

>>19307646
yes just buy it already

>>19307559
I did it to bait meme liners into my thread and see what they have to say. Nobody replies unless you piss them off first

>>19306479
It is a meme. It's like tarot cards for stocks

>>19307559
Cringe

>>19307646
>Price is totally random
Let's say that tesla stocks today are worth $500, can they be worth $50.000 or $5 tomorrow, or in the next 5 minutes?
Clearly not.
So price is not totally random
>Price moves according to the news
Ok, but how much does it moves? Who says how much is a new worth? Who says WHEN it will be priced in, or if it has been priced in already?
>You can predict where price will go using TA
You clearly can't, but you can understand that some movements are more likely than others.
TA is about getting a statistical advantage (when you can beat the coin flipping) in your assumptions.

>>19307711
>>19307646
The only thing funnier than the butthurt reactions of the TA dunning-krugers in this thread is their reaction when they inevitably lose 50%+ of their stack because their gay system fails them (incidentally that's usually when they start trading on a higher timeframe kek).

>>19307613
Do you mean in daily market volume or for a single investor? It figures that you can't use TA for low mcap shit like ESH or some shit which is obviously hyper manipulated.

>>19307791
I don't see where I said price is totally random. I am saying looking at ONLY past price as a predictor is clearly idiotic. I also think you could literally only look at Twitter and get a similar statistical advantage, or even something as simple as Google search trends.

>>19307875
Yeah, if you employ a mixture of it along with like reading the news and dyor, it's way better than just dcaing or buying dips.
I like to TA until there's a news event. TA tends to be completely wrong around major events because that's when whales like to pump and dump

>>19307875
I didn't say that you said that, i just made a list of the common assumptions about prices.
TA is a very wide subject, and yes, you can use different correlations in your model if they work, or increase somehow your chances.
"Buffett indicator" is a corporate equities/GDP chart, he uses it to say if stocks are undervalued or overvalued.
Does it work? Probably it works in the WB model.

>>19307086

Name one

Worlds best TA trader Peter Brandt lives in a modest house in Arizona, and cant afford to do all the things he wants in life.
TA is a memetic.

>>19307094
Unless you are talking about day trading. Which is a whole different animal. And not to be considered by anyone not sitting in NYC.

>>19307791
>Let's say that tesla stocks today are worth $500, can they be worth $50.000 or $5 tomorrow, or in the next 5 minutes?
>Clearly not.
>So price is not totally random

Random doesn't mean "the price can take on any value" you uneducated fucking retard.

It's astronomy for crypto nerds. Truth is nobody knows what the price will do

TA gives you a statistical advantage but not a certain answer.
In the end you can see it as counting cards when playing, you have an advantage even if the game is still random in nature.

>>19308030
>Believes one can give an entire definition of what "random" means in a biz brief post
Shut up faggot
Gneee gnaaa gneeee

Guys I looked at this stock based on the financial statements and company history. Like buffet does. The stock was at 50 and everything said it was going to 100. I bought and for almost a year it lingers lower than I bought at 45. I sold at a minor loss.

Covid 19 hits and I buy the stock at $35 and ride until 45. Their sales are shit and I short it. The stock goes to $80 and it almost bankrupts me. Becoming my worst it investment of all time. The stock rides to over 90 for no reason, then goes back to $73.

>Tldr the market don't care what the company is doing, just the perception of the company

>>19308072

"An unpredictable sequence of events drawn from some probability distribution"

Wow that was hard. Doesn't matter though, the point is that your claim is entirely wrong and retarded. Some values not being within the domain of the probability distribution is absolutely not evidence of there being no probability distribution.

Not to mention that Tesla stock absolutely could become worth $5 tomorrow.

>>19308083

From what I'm reading the stock indeed went up towards 100 but you decided to sell before it did?

>>19306479
The problem with TA isn't the data itself, but that most people use that data incorrectly to try and look for perfect entries and exits, rather than think of trades in probabilities and ratios.
You cannot make consistent profits trading trying to snipe the market unless you have insider information or you just get plain lucky on a hail mary trade that ends up mooning, like early bitcoin adopters.

>>19307970
James Simons

>>19308069
But counting cards proveably increases your odds of winning. You literally know that the probability of a certain card being drawn has reduced or increased based on cards you've already seen. To extend your analogy, if you were at a blackjack table and the casino manager walked over and told you "I'm putting 30 new random cards in the deck", your counting algorithm no longer holds. This is broadly equivalent to substantiated claims about satoshi dumping coins or chain link partnering with Google. You'd be mad to not consider the additional information

>>19308083
>Market doesn't take in account fundamentals
It does, but you don't know WHEN and HOW

Here's your mistake, you looked at some retarded parameter literally everyone knows (like earnings) and assumed, according to your beliefs, that market *had to* do what you thinked it was right.

>>19308137

>search for James Simons + Technical analysis
>0 results

Nah mate. Not every statistical model is TA.

>>19308105
I don't really care to fight with you about your pussy definitions, your understanding of what random is are clearly too narrow to even try to explain to your fag mind what random is.
If you believe that "random" is just of one kind, well, you're even more retarded of what expected.
What kind of random fits the markets? This is still being debated.

Daily reminder that the market is not rational and everything is bullshit including your TA

>>19308083
>be KOS
>independent oil&gas exploration company
>negative earnings for the past 4 quarters
>oil prices at near record low
>falls below $1 USD price NYSE trading requirement
>possible to get delisted if the 30 day average is sub $1
>up 100%+ in 5 weeks
Just get over the fact markets are irrational and take the bull pill and start profiting from this clown market

>>19307376
fixed for you anon

>>19308184
correct, it's not TA the way people thinks, they use Markov chains
Markov chains and Kalman Filters are predictors, TA doesn't predict anything

>>19308617
dude, this kalman filter moving average rocks, i can tell

>>19306479

They're called meme lines for a reason. That being said, memes have this weird habit of making fantasy become reality if enough people believe in them.

>>19308617
This is actually very interesting and I will research it. Thanks for sharing

>>19306479

great TA here for BCH. cant miss this one.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1ux0OQJG/

>>19308125
No I shorted and rode it up as I was losing all my money. I had to cover art like 80. Losing 13k.

Was just having this conversation, it can indicate possible momentum changes although which direction is the hard part... I made a bunch more money when I didn't use TA

>>19309298
Yeah I was watching this guy on YouTube trading spy. I don't know if he was trading minis. Whatever. In the end he is using TA to trade multiple times that day using stop loses in very small increments. The news is meaningless. Just the price a minute from now.