/biz/ - Business & Finance

When is open interest updated for June oil contracts? This is super duper important!

>>19187373
Damn right I am going down with this ship.

>boomers on CNBC were saying in MARCH to buy tanker stocks
>y'all wait till oil went negative
>buy high
>???
what was your plan here exactly

>>19187411
Once a day aparently

Looks like the OI for today was Friday close. Just checked NYMEX. I believe it will update again tomorrow morning?

>https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_volume_voi.html#tradeDate=20200515

>>19187437
CRASHING THIS TANKER

WITH NO SURVIVORS

>>19187411

>sold TNP to redis into better tankers
>è sold? Pomp eeet

>>19187439
But when. We were updated when the market opened last night. We should get an update today too.

>>19187478
No way we didn't decline in OI all day. No way. That would be purely unbelievable. It would spell certain disaster. Would suck if we had to wait until morning to really know.

>>19187373
>50 shares at 5.85
>Close at 6.07
>Green day tomorrow with WTI oil contracts
PRAY TO CORONA CHAN FUCK OIL

Calvin backing up his talk.
Can he get any more based?

Future's all green except China and India.

>>19187634
roll for not nigger or chink

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5xR7jBxDw

And with that, kind anons, I bid you goodnight.

>>19187661
think i just grew thicker hair on my chest

I sold mro today and made 58 bucks and put it In novn. Please kek, help your loyal anon make thousands this week.

>>19187634
Rollin'

Tankies BTFO. Oil is KANG.

>>19187953

Tankers are not inverse oil unless you're playing contango. The whole business is transporting oil you fucking retard.

>>19187899
>sold mro
Ngmi

>>19188062
That's not how the market thinks.

Give you a great move RN, since I feel bad for you tankies. Any tanker co. under $6...short them. The need for tankies is done. The weakest among them are fucked. Example: Short NAT for the greatest gains of you're existence.

>>19188194
I invest based on how the market thinks right now, I'm looking at macro fundamentals entering 2021 and 2022 to base my investments off of, while you and the rest of the market are still caught up in the contango narrative.

>The need for tankers is done

explain? Oil will be around for at least 30 years, albeit demand decreasing, but not at the ridiculous rate tanker supply is falling off at

>The weakest among them are fucked

No objections, and NAT sucks but everybody knows that.

>>19188293
>Oil just flies across the ocean to other countries

Why are you arguing with brandon?

>>19187899
should have just bought more marathon tbqh

>>19188194
These people are immune to good advice

>>19188293
It will take pages to explain, but to summarize

Oil demand is rebounding and OPEC is reducing output. Oil demand will soon outpace supply, which in turn taps into the maxed out reserves. Since reserves are full, it will take forever to get it down to appropriate levels. Since storage will no longer be needed for awhile, it will reduce demand for tankies.

All of which spells doom for the next year for tank storage. Reflective in stock market prices.

>>19187661
Nini.

>>19187899
Thank you kind anon.

>>19188501
OPEC just cut demand forecast for the rest of the year by another 30%. Demand is increasing, but not as much as expected. Meanwhile cuts are nowhere near as pronounced as hoped and inventory is much higher than it was supposed to be.

>>19188293
Retail investors haven't really sold much if you go by Robintrack data. This means selling pressure is only coming from Algos, Institutions, or whale Bagholders who are trying to exit a position or suppress the sector prices down. Ignoring contango, the whole sector is still undervalued.
>>19188501
Which means $100 oil next year, because as demand comes back, the wells won't. Some wells permanently lose production when mothballed, others are too expensive to be worth it (see stripper wells). Rates collapse due to 'normalization', tanker fleets are downsized to maintain profits (plus ships need scrubbers to comply with new regs), and suddenly you have 2006-2008 again with expensive oil and expensive tankers, because they take 18+ months to build and no one is going to build them during an economic downturn. Long term will probably do well, but many here were expecting short term price movement.

Priced in is a meme. Market prices are bogged beyond belief right now and reflect little beyond sentiment, if that. Millions unemployed and a depression looming, but stonks only go up. Hell, tankers might as well if the FED printer gods decide to buy their debt, who knows.

>>19188329
It's not Brandon he's trying to use logic.

>>19188501

>Oil demand is rebounding and OPEC is reducing output. Oil demand will soon outpace supply, which in turn taps into the maxed out reserves. Since reserves are full, it will take forever to get it down to appropriate levels.

This is true, but the demand for Oil is a demand for oil exports i.e. Tanker demand unless you see tankers as a purely storage play. If the short term demand for tankers drops off due to oil being drawn from storage only and only being used domestically, which is entirely unrealistic (but we'll concede it for the sake of argument), then the old age of fleets + IMO2020 and IMO2030 regulations will cause the upkeep of older ships to be not worth their upkeep and required upgrades, as demand and spot rates drop, and so these ships will be scrapped causing supply-side destruction.

>Since storage will no longer be needed for awhile, it will reduce demand for tankies.

Only applicable for the Contango gamblers, but I'm an tanker investor. However, the Contango issue gave tankers a great cash buffer and great deleveraging going into a balance sheet recession; ie debt deflation, piles of debt growing bigger, liquidity from FED not useful as cashflow is king when paying down debt is the major issue the recession revolves around

My argument is that Tankers exist in a nice catch-22 whereby when demand for tankers go down, a fail safe kicks in that destroys supply. It's a win-win situation if played with a macro time frame. There are NO SHIPS on the order book for tankers right now due to known and unknown upcoming environmental regulations (You don't want to build a ship for it to be obsolete in half it's lifespan), and as well shipyards have closed down and creditors have left the space. And if Oil demand goes up, tanker demand goes up for exports. But even in this situation 25% and likely more of VLCC tonnage is headed for the scrap yard in 2021, with even more in 2022.

>>19188774
Oil had three strong green days and needs to correct. This is market logic 101. It's extremely overpriced right now and it's based on a lot of optimism about the economy.
But, it's really impossible impossible that this shit isn't going to come back around again this fall. Maybe not as substantial, but I do not trust this fucking market.
t.Crystall ball

>>19188901
>I'm an tanker investor.
post buy date and what you own

>>19189109
50 shares at 5.88

>>19189116
Wasn't talking to you but okay at least you bought somewhat low although I personally would wait for it to go sub $5 which will likely happen this week.

What sucks for you investors is that everyone in the stock market is treating it as OIL vs Tankers....

WTI crude price is increasing, India will reopen very soon (more demand) and supply will cause price of oil to moon up by next month. All signs point to even more negative stock prices for tankers.

Maybe better to invest in Oil instead. Still cheap af stocks like HAL, Exxon, MRO....maybe even etf's like USO

>>19189309
At the very least it would be a good hedge against tankers. Since the tanker industry is taking on water and sinking.

https://twitter.com/calvinfroedge/status/1262536997526220801

Uh oh.... Looks like we might not have many more /tsg/

>>19189309
India pushed back their opening plans yet again:
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-lockdown-4-0-extended-guidelines-live-updates-coronavirus-6414038/
And in my opinion aren't likely to open until late june.
Oil is a great play with plenty of upside but I just don't see this being the right entrypoint. I don't see how there cannot be a second bottom (doesn't need to even go negative) causing panic. That would be the correct entry for oil.

>>19189325
The tanker industry is registering lifetime record earnings across the board. It's the stocks that suck, not the industry which is booming.

>>19189441
yikes, even the one true believer is admitting its a bad long play

>>19189441
Cold dead hands regardless

>>19189445
>The tanker industry is registering lifetime record earnings across the board. It's the stocks that suck, not the industry which is booming.
You're right I should have clarified, short term the industry has made a ton of cash, long term not so good.

tanking and oil is a pretty tough low margin market... You guys are crazy

>>19189441
THIS IS THE ULTIMATE BUY SIGNAL

>>19189494
I think a few people here bit off more than they could chew and are hoping for a turn around by trying to meme another contango into existence. Unfortunately I dont think thats in the cards.

>>19189493
I always saw tanker as a short to mid-term play, never long term. In the long term I don't see tankers doing THAT bad though. That could only happen if oil demand remains low while the oil supply gets under control. While the latter may happen, I absolutely do not believe in the former. Reminder that tankers will be used for transport after they're used for oil. As demand goes back online, oil will surge and tankers will move the SHIT out of oil all around. Also tankers are strongly undervalued by every single possible metric right now. If there was a magical demand slump with fixed supply, the current price is what I would expect.

>>19189445
Yes, India is on an extended lockdown...and demand is still getting higher...JUST IMAGINE IF THEY REOPEN. OIL $$$$$

Now is the time to get in...the shock of negative Oil prices absolutely caused OPEC to change. It will never be that way in the near future again. OPEC countries lost a FUCK TON of money when it went negative (Saudi Arabia had to triple their taxes just because of that). They WILL make Oil $50+, hell maybe even $100 to offset the losses from Oil in April.

>>19189539
>Also tankers are strongly undervalued by every single possible metric right now.
Are they though? If the market is forward looking I'd say the prices are actually quite fair if you look at what share prices were in 2016-2019.

>>19189554
You mentioned HAL, XON, MRO, any other related sectors that might still be a cheap undervalued buy?

>>19189554
SA was running at a huge deficit to flood the market with oil on purpose. The negative oil didn't really affect that. Yes, when india goes back online, they will significantly increase oil demand. But that was already expected to happen in all estimates, and it didn't: demand is LOWER than expected, meaning storage is filling EVEN FASTER than it should. And it's already all but full.

>>19189572
Yes they are. They're valued far below NAV and often lower than free cash on hand. If they were to go bankrupt right now, most of them would generate surplus income per shareholder from the metal scraps from the ships alone. Looking at 2016-2019 prices is another way in which they're grossly undervalued: look at their business numbers then and now (they've all shaved off significant debt, completed lots of capex and still greatly increased dividends or expended buyback programs at the same time, and still on top of that beat virtually all estimates by massive margins -- even if the prices became as bad as before, they would still be a lot more valuable now than then on that account alone, but even more so due to their increased stability going forward. And that's not even mentioning the superb Q2 guidance.).

>>19189672
Those numbers don't matter so much for long term investors when they know that cash will be burned up by falling rates over the next year. It's not a sustainable business model which is why the entire sector pumped and dumped. Nobody wants to long hold something that is going to depreciate in value.

>>19189727
>that cash will be burned up by falling rates over the next year.
I disagree with this hypothesis on several levels:
- I don't see cash being burned even if rates became as shit as recently
- I don't see bad rates even being a thing until late 2021
I've already mostly explained why. If you have a counterargument I'd love to hear it, because so far all I got (not from you but in general) is "lmao trust me dude".

>It's not a sustainable business model
It's sustainable so long as rates are like 8k when rates are usually no lower than 10-20k. The exact opposite of hyper-leveraged garbage like meme tech companies or airlines, yet you don't see people dooming those every 5 seconds. Explain that one to me.

> the entire sector pumped and dumped.
Then why isn't it pumping right now, on the single most opportune time of all? This is a direct contradiction to your statement.

>>19189812
The best counter-argument is that the stock market disagrees, which is why it's been going negative consecutively for the last 3+ weeks. It also could get worst.

>>19189812
>I don't see cash being burned even if rates became as shit as recently
Because you're not factoring in different regulations being forced on tankers that need upgrades. This is a debt heavy sector and contango is not a growth model, its a lottery ticket that isn't going to happen again. Tech companies can grow innovate and produce new content and products, tankers cannot. Airlines are shit just like tankers.
>Then why isn't it pumping right now
Because the contango is over and theres no more surprise cash flow or substantial growth on the horizon, shareholders are looking down a mountain.

>>19189868
That's a really shit argument anon.

>>19189868
That's fair of course.
>>19189879
>different regulations being forced on tankers that need upgrades
Just scrape everything lmao, increased rates = increased profit.
>theres no more surprise cash flow or substantial growth on the horizon
Voyage rates are going to sky rocket and as mentioned above, imo 2020 will further increase spot rates. Tankers are not inherently a growth stock, which is why many are offering fat dividends. But everything from previous price action to fundamental valuation to the march dip contradicts your hypothesis.

>>19189903
Well, as shit as it is, it's reality.

i fell for the tanker meme and bought DHT at about 7.70 per share. should i just dump my bags now and wait for a pump? the oilbros won...

>>19189945
I'd suggest at least holding until the price recovers from the dividend dip, but who the fuck knows if that ever happens now.

>>19189928
>increased rates
Rates are going to be shit because demand will crab and decline as the storage is burned up. The more oil companies that gear up the less international demand there will be which will also lower rates. You're looking at a slow moving disaster. The contango will influx enough cash that it will prevent bankruptcy for most tanker companies but its certainly not going to give them good rates in the future.

>>19189945
>should i just dump my bags now and wait for a pump?
no,https://fintel.io/so/us/dht

>>19189986
If demand crabs and declines, then storage will not burn up as current production far exceeds it. If we reach a point where production does in fact go lower than demand and demand does crab and decline as you describe, oil price will rocket to never-before-seen-levels once demand goes fully back online, which will significantly increase the voyage and demurage rates for tankers.
Only the small tankers (and the shitty ones like NAT) were ever at a real risk of bankruptcy as well.

>>19189945
>7.70 per share.
I hate to break it to you but you're simply not going to break even unfortunately. The odds are much higher that DHT returns to its February 2020 and Summer 2019 share price (mid 5's) than it does $8.

How many shares did you get?

>>19190050
>floating storage
No they're not going to use the most expensive way to store oil again, betting on this is folly at its highest level. You're assuming no one learned anything from last time, a lot of people lost a lot of money. That is simply not going to happen again, land based infrastructure would be a better play than tankers for storage. (See: ET)

>>19190107
At least read the post before replying anon-chan.

>>19190113
You're arguing for increased demurage rates with shrinking demand. Which is floating storage. Which is contango. You're simply wrong, if you want to gamble go to Vegas and use a slot machine.

>>19190150
You don't know what you're talking about. Go read up on it and then tell me what your next bearish argument is. Until then, I win.

>>19190079
>he's betting against Charles Schwab, Vanguard, Ameriprise, RBC, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Wells Fargo, USB, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, JP Morgan, State Street...

>>19190161
You obviously don't even know what the definition of demurrage is. Funny that you would tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about while you advocate buying and holding overvalued non growth sector stock thats been crashing daily for weeks.

>>19190179
Those companies own shit tons of different sectors, it doesn't mean they see the moon the horizon. Compare it with their holdings in other sectors and come back.

Froedge protected his tweets.
It's not looking good.

>>19190201
>they throw money willy nilly
shiggy diggy. If it's a hedge, it's probably against US shale. The Citi one is the most interesting. If they're only using this to balance out US shale, it might be that...
>1. tankers are an efficient hedge against US shale - which by all means is fucked without gov intervention.
>2. tankers can be played with shale and have significant upside with gov. intervention
>3. tankers are an acceptable medium/long term play
If it was poison like a lot of people against tankers imply, then these guys wouldn't touch the shit.

>>19190283
Why would he do that?

so be honest, this thread is full of a bunch of bagholders who refuse to admit they bought a bad investment and are now "'long term inverstors" isn't it

>>19190288
>they throw money willy nilly
Its called diversification, look it up.

>>19190334
Some are, some aren't. I was hoping STNG might be a good short term swing, but the horizon has always been through the year for me.

>>19190355
also can be called hedging against adverse selection. Don't be a faggot.

>>19190296
He was one of the guys singing the praises of tankers the most, then today he started backing off and people were mad. He was probably getting shit on hard

>>19190334
I admit I did that but have no desire to go long. I’m looking for a way out but might just sell at a 5% loss. I’ve been DCA for a week now and really see no way out. The mental gymnastics here hasn’t assuaged my concerns especially with oil prices recovering.

>>19190296
I actually was following him, he went from basically dooming the future viability of holding tanker bags to protecting his tweets? Ah fuck

>>19190376
>>19190416

sounds like he's quitting tanker analysis
i can't see his recent tweets but everyone seems to be painting it that way

>>19190416
Yeah sounds like I'm going to just sell out of everything tomorrow

>>19190186
Faggot. Floating storage is time-charted rates. Transportation of oil is spot rate. The demurrage rate is the rate charged when the oil remains on the ship for longer than the contracted period. This applies to both spot and time-chartered.

>>19190445
I’m strongly considering the same. I can take the hit and don’t want to lose another 10%

>>19190387
>The mental gymnastics here
which party?
Oil price recovery is hard to discern. We need to consider the level of government intervention in the matter. Someone needs to pay for storage space. As we can see on the S&P and has been reiterated by many here, the market's pricing mechanisms do not reflect economic reality. The decreasing levels of oil in storage is manipulation clean and simply. California is at full capacity. Tankers are sitting in the gulf and california coast. Crude oil needs to go somewhere. And it will be used. The crude needs to get used and it will have an extended downward pressure on prices. US Shale will need to survive on the government's teat for a long time and manage pressure from producers internationally while managing their debt loads. It's bad. In the medium term, US oil production might drop off considerably and we might need to import - which happens via tankers. We'll have to see. The greater level of fucked US shale gets, the greater upside potential there is for tankers.

>>19190519
And when is that going to pay off for me? I would like to be able to look at this optimistically but I am just seeing my holdings drain.

>>19190488
if you're worried about 10% in the day to day, you might want to hop off. the NAV should make anything in this range and below a buy. It's literally gamestop at $2. They have too much cash and assets to be valued there. the movie meme short man holds GME. You can try betting against him.

>>19190560
>And when is that going to pay off for me?
go to crypto or pennystocks if your horizon is less than at least a few quarters. This is not the place for you.

>>19190519
I’m simply missing too many opportunities. The 5% Im down I could have remade during today’s market pump if I didn’t fall for this shitty meme. I don’t want to wait 6 months for an event that may or may not occur.

>>19190575
>hold tankers for a few quarters
Meanwhile theres a dozen different sectors that will double in price by then during the recovery. These poor anons taking advice from you retards. Holy shit.

>>19190575
Is this how you argue your point? I'm asking because one of the biggest proponents of buying and holding tanker stocks just said he's out and protected his tweets. For all we know, he's liquidating tomorrow at open. I am willing to hold these bags but I need more to go on than "just hold them bro, what were you expecting, profit?"

>>19190599
>The 5% Im down I could have remade during today’s market pump
>I don’t want to wait 6 months for an event that may or may not occur.
It's already happening. DHT's earnings should have told you as much. Look forward to FRO's earnings. These swings are unnatural, kiddo. Don't keep expecting them.

>>19190626
>during the recovery
>he thinks we're recovering.
I'll accept shit in industrials if they're low and commodities right now. Equities are a complete shitshow. Financials are in the trash, consumer discretionary is in the trash (bar videogames), media is trashed, auto and aviation are trashed, energy is ok, staples are ok, and telecom is ok, tech is heated to fuckall and should be worked with very gingerly. I fail to see where these other sectors are anything short of pure gambling.
>inb4 Buffet's a loon
>inb4 Soros is old and dumb
the writing is on the walls for almost everything.

>>19190644
>Is this how you argue your point?
no, i'm telling you that you should not be investing in the stock market if you're expecting shit to swing around like this.
>I'm asking because one of the biggest proponents of buying and holding tanker stocks just said he's out and protected his tweets.
literally who. Never paid attention to that guy, forge your own opinions.

>I am willing to hold these bags but I need more to go on than "just hold them bro, what were you expecting, profit?"
I don't care if you dump your stack. we're not even ants, we're microbes. I've outlined the argument. The target is probably at least 50% on most of these, minimally. I know what the shares should be worth, and I have purchased them below their fair value. I cannot tell you when they will approach NAV nor an equitable value. No one can do anything other than guess. Do you have an argument for why the market jumped 4% today? why crude front month jumped 10% midday? BRR isn't sufficient. FED only cares about liquidity.

>>19190079
i only bought 100 shares. i dont mind holding long term just for the heck of it. i have a steady income and a comfortable savings so holding that isn't going to break the bank.

>>19187634
roll

also anyone know why TNP popped the fuck off after hours? my folio suddenly feels lighter

The reason nobody believes Brandon even when his predictions come true is because 100% of his reasoning is beyond retardation.

It's enough to make me think he actually knows something that he isn't allowed to tell us and is trying to just troll this thing into oblivion.

If he actually believes 10% of what he says, he is certifiable. But then why is he REALLY still here? He's obviously not actually some rich boomer, as he eats his breakfast off cheap ass paper plates from Walmart. But that fucker has been right every step of the way.

It is simultaneously enough to make me want to run for the hills AND steel my hands to the point of death because I can't figure out how angle.

But he's definitely got both info AND an angle.

>>19187634
actually i think i got peruvian last time i did this. i guess that means i need a peruvian flute wife

>>19190894
cool the schizophrenia. Brandon doesn't even seem to be here anymore. All FUD has been right so far because the stocks have been getting steamrolled. We just have to wait it out. I'll refer back to before. S&P, what the fuck was that today?

>>19190797
So then what's keeping these stocks down?

>>19190797
Front month crude was tracking the DOW click for click literally until the moment it was pointed out (it went on for the past couple days), and then it immediately began to diverge with high volume downward surges but always correcting back to track the DOW with the lowest volume up ticks imaginable.

This shit is a whole level above suspicious.

>>19190979
Manipulation by institution. Check fintel.io

>>19187634
Rolling

All these landlubbers with weak hands don't deserve the wealth to be had.
>>19187634
Roll

>>19190979
for all stocks, especially now:
>price can go up
>price can go down
>price can go sideways
there is no rhyme or reason for price action, it explains itself. We just happen to have these company's sheets, like all other public institution, and realized, "Hey look, if these guys just liquidated all of their shit, we'd get a nice chunk of cash as common shareholders." We know what the company should be able to deliver to each share and have realized that they're on sale. If we happen to get a swing, like you're hoping for, then great, we'll sell and potentially re-enter. I fail to see an argument for UBER, Zoom, US Shale, many banks and insurance companies, and so on and so forth with the current state and projected state of affiars. the price can go up, but they won't be able to deliver as much value as tankers at these prices from my POV.

>>19190894

>>19191137
>>19191021
So basically these stocks are all worth 2-3x more than they are valued at now, but are being institutionally suppressed? OK, I can see that. The fundamentals are all there. I'm just wondering at what point the suppression is going to stop.

we're all gonna make it tomorrow

>>19191200
>but are being institutionally suppressed
I wouldn't even go so far as thinking about that - you'll never know. I'm not very interested either. These are one of the few sets of companies that I would OK a buyback. The prices are very low. For some, like STNG, yes, a 2-3x seems very obtainable.

>>19190334
Steel hands, but you're a fool if you don't know how to actually run a portfolio. Most of my swings do pretty well and I genuinely might HODL for a long time even though I got in very cheap.
Shit, I still have shares of $DRYS and $SINO that I still hold. Shipping has made me a lot of money and I know what can happen when problems in shipping arise.

Crude might go positive during rollover. Tankers keep not doing too hot. Calvin put protection mode on his twitter. Fear is at its maximum.

I am holding. Call me crazy, but I am a fundamentals investor to the end, and now that people are getting THIS scared...it might have emptied all those it could empty. All the popularity of tanker stocks...if it dwindles, it might be the biggest buy signal yet and they might all send the stock straight up by institutional money.

Also, where the hell is my Open interest update on June futures for oil? Fricken marketwatch rolled over and I can't see it anymore, wth.

>>19190941
>>19191150
You tell me how anybody could look at the info we have and determine tankers are going to shit the bed. He did it and he's been RIGHT. Yet every single reason he gives us either demonstrably false or idiotic.

He is right, while giving reasons that are imaginary. He has been retarded, but he has been RIGHT. That's the part I can't shake.

When the hell else have you seen anything like this before? Of course any general has trolls and people who disbelieve, etc, but this asshole shows up every single day with confidence oozing out of his ass that he can't explain with any verifiable reason, but he makes predictions that HAPPEN.

Everyone here knows perfectly well that storage is full. Everyone here knows tankers are making bank. Everyone here knows the demand is going to be high for months or years, yet tankers are shItting the bed and NOBODY ON EARTH KNOWS WHY.

Pundits don't know. The company owners don't know. Our resident autists, myself included, can't figure it out despite spending 10 hours a day on this shit. Brandon shows up out of nowhere spewing absolute nonsense for 10 hours EVERY SINGLE DAY reasoning for predictions that have been spot on.

I'm not schizo and this isn't cringe. That fucker knows something.

>>19191260
I'm thinking of just holding EURN longish and moving everything else to crude. Originally I thought tankers would experience a bigger rise than this, then I'd sell half and move that into energy as energy recovered. I'm hoping tankers pump hard and crude dips because from the facts that's how things should go but everything is so unreal at the moment it might be better to just go along with the retardation rather than trying to bet against it

Fuck Calvin the apostate. Praise Lawrence.

>>19191315
It doesn't take a genius to see that supply chains are moving again and theres incentive to avoid contango 2.0, you just overthought the situation and thought you outsmarted it and are stunned

Contango fags are a lot like the bears that assume that lows will be retested any day now and keep shorting the market on every green day.

>>19191315
There are only two possible outcomes on any prediction: it happens or not. Brandon-chan is just a contrarian, thus as we keep being wrong, he appears to be right. If we are ever right one day, suddenly he'll be wrong. He doesn't predict anything himself, he just takes the position opposite ours.

>>19191260
>Also, where the hell is my Open interest update on June futures for oil? Fricken marketwatch rolled over and I can't see it anymore, wth.
We didn't even get a preliminary OI for Monday which is strange, but maybe just how it goes at rollover?

You can see historical OI for every day of the contract so it seems weird to have nothing for Monday, but I'm assuming we'll see a very low number in the morning.

But if that shit is a hair over 3,000 we'd better see fireworks.

>>19191355
Nobody said "oh shit contango may contract, that means contango june!!1". More like, as june contracts kept rising to ludicrous levels GIVEN the situation, it makes sense that there will be contango mess tomorrow. You yourself cannot possibly explain why that would not be given that nobody can accept delivery of any oil and that demand forecast are 30% less than expected, and that cuts are nowhere near what was promised and even if they were, that would be useless, AND many producers said they'd cut but then revealed they didn't, like PBR who recently revealed they entered a deal with a tanker, presumably to ship oil to china.
On top of that all reopenings so far are happening slower than expected, with the threat of a second wave looming and india pushing back the end of their lockdown yet again.

>>19191355
He saw it weeks ago. He has never wavered.

>>19191359
I get what you guys are saying but I feel like you have not been here through this whole thing. You don't understand the dedication this guy has. This simply cannot be run of the mill contrarianism.

>>19191315
>When the hell else have you seen anything like this before?
in that movie with the office guy.
>but this asshole shows up every single day with confidence oozing out of his ass that he can't explain with any verifiable reason, but he makes predictions that HAPPEN.
do you happen to have the predictions? The tankers are swinging downward for some reason, but I really don't care unless they show signs of failure, which nothing has presented. The market can be irrational as long as it wants this time. I'm indefinitely solvent on these and getting divvies.
>tankers are shItting the bed and NOBODY ON EARTH KNOWS WHY.
I'll say it one third and final time: Why is the S&P up so fucking high today?
Someone convince me that the answer that isn't essentially "the price is the price and the market does what it wants," and I'll sell all of my tankers.
>That fucker knows something.
I'm pretty sure he knows he's getting paid. and that's about it.

>>19191355
>It doesn't take a genius to see that supply chains are moving again and theres incentive to avoid contango 2.0
Are the supply chains actually moving again? Who's making sales? kek

>>19191453
To be fair, market is high today because several companies lied about having magical corona cures that are totally working and good to go goyim.

>>19190894
This was really all of it. Explaining reasoning is one thing, spamming threads with literally hundreds of posts is paid shill or schizo-poster territory.
I'm surprised Calvin deactivated his twitter, he seemed as confused as we are about tanker fundamentals and a lack of price movement.
>>19191234
Retail didn't get shook out that much. Take a look at the robinhood data- there's little evidence of mass dumping. That said, I wouldn't put moneyed interests past running paid shilling to suppress or pump a given sector. Tanker companies would go private if the market cap got suppressed enough.
>>19191355
This is like a blind man laughing at other blind people, for being blind. No one is above it all. People thought COVID-19 was a nothing-burger 3 months ago, then suddenly it wasn't. As far as tankers/oil goes; Either the data was bad, the oil market is being actively intervened with discretely (Oil tankers being "delayed" from unloading so they can't show up on EIA reports, etc.), or we've been bogged by some other unknown factor. Probably all the above. An analysis of what exactly happened during these months should be done in the future.
Brandon had upwards of 500-750 posts all retarded and shilling against entering tankers. That goes wayy beyond garden variety shitposting.

>>19191410
>You yourself cannot possibly explain why that would not be given that nobody can accept delivery
Google supply chain, and then understand as demand increases and crude extraction is cut that storage is freed up for whatever crude oil is still being extracted. The sudden collapse of storage was because of the sudden unprecedented drop in demand and huge production. That is over, its very easy to extrapolate that it would not repeat that situation. It's incredible that so many here were convinced it would happen again.

OH NO
NONONONONO

>>19191453
>I'll say it one third and final time: Why is the S&P up so fucking high today?
The word "vaccine" appeared on the internet and the entire market went out of it's mind. You really didn't know that?

>>19191482
None of what you said is even remotely true. Use www.google.com to find out more today! It's free!

>>19191200
who knows.

Tankers have a good reason to be up. my baby TNP was at 0.16 price/book ratio. It's assets according to last quarter were worth about $15/share. And now they are sitting on a mountain of cash thanks to the rate hike so it's even more stilted. On top of this there's a shitload of oil floating in the ocean, land tanks are full, it's going to take forever to work through land crude; tankers will be in business for some time. Did I mention record profits?

Now lets look at oil: oversupply driving down drilling/exploration, refining, pumps closing, people laid off, demand destroyed, massive amounts of debt taken on to finance survival, why has it rallied?

I can tell you why big tech rallied: too big to fail, "not affected" by virus, backed by the fed, people fleeing to tech majors for safety. makes sense. kind of fucked up, anything the fed backs will swallow the little ones left out to die.

I don't get oil though. I want in but this is far too expensive. All this market drama around big oil tastes like vomit. Tankies are correct from an economic standpoint but the market behaves counter to economics. Might as well toss our your econ lit, it's worthless now.

>>19191484
Nice, anyone who doesn't sell DHT on open will be waiting years for a $6 dollar share price again.

>>19191506
I'm sorry you don't understand the basics of supply and demand, but next time you get frustrated maybe you should take a step back and do a bit of research before "investing".

>>19189309
I bought MPC psx and vlo at 24.33, 57.81, and 51.44. and last week I bought cop and was looking at pxd. Forget the tankers. Too many people in it already. Bet on demand for at least 6 month

>>19191484
That came out like 7 hours ago.

>>19191543
www.google.com
Education is the start of a new you. A better you. A you that your mamma can be proud of.

>>19191543
Somebody get this autist off of the internet.
Fuckers like you make this place damn near unusable.
Your single mother should have kicked your ass for mouthing off so we wouldn't have to deal with it.

>>19191551
Are you going to make me more multi paragraph posts tomorrow about how confused you are that you cant figure out why tankers aren't mooning and that oil hasn't crashed negative? I'm excited to see what new ways you can express your dismay.

>>19191315
kek

>>19191509
>Might as well toss our your econ lit, it's worthless now.
That's what is getting to me. I understand that the market is not going to do what I want it to do every time but the situation with tankers is fucked. There is no reason for these companies that are making literally 10x their normal earnings with locked-in contracts guaranteeing record profits for a year to have their stocks this low. It reeks of manipulation but even that shouldn't be enough. Oil should experience a second dip which is when I plan to get in, but instead it's just rising on the back of what? Nobody is buying this stuff and they're dumping it in random holes in the ground and caves and Trump is forcing dozens of tankers to just circle around the ports literally stalling.
I get it, you can be wrong 100x on this kind of thing and you only need to be right 1 time for it to pay off, but seriously what the fuck is going on?

>>19191468
>>19191500
>market is high today because several companies lied about having magical corona cures
Can you prove it? Is there really a reason that MSFT is up on that news? What happened to Tech being the safe haven? Is there any reason to believe that we have a working vaccine for an effective RNA virus? I think not. A better set, Cisco, Lenovo, and HP, who are huge for the move to WFH. All three are up today (the latter two, violently) when money would be flowing back into shit like Lyft and Uber and Chipotle on this vaccine news. Not convinced.

>>19191500
Additionally, this all has nothing to do with a shitty virus. It's over leveraged companies that can't service their debt if they get closed for three weeks and there's the slightest hint of fear that they can't access infinite debt.

>>19191329
Well, again, I believe in fundamentals. Especially in clown market. These companies have insane value even if their stocks are treated like trash. I also believe some of these companies don't like that their stocks are so low neither. EURN has whispered buybacks, STNG has brought up in tangent history of buybacks. Regardless of oil tomorrow I want to see FRO's earnings and conference, because I have a feeling it might be possible they outright announce buybacks. If FRO does buybacks then we are essentially in business no matter market sentiment. There are too many factors, too many possibilities to just give up so soon, and seeing how shaky all else is I sort of like the idea of being in something not-shaky, not because of "future growth," but being below inherent value even if stagnant. Tankers are more comparable to utilities that experienced an unjustified dip rather than like some new tech stock that is making a killing and deserves investors, least in my eyes. Sure it has the latter too, but the former is why I am attracted to hold regardless of situation. Plus fear is getting huge now which I see as bullish unironically.

>>19191388
Didn't we get preliminary? Went from 55.6k to 54.9k. Which was laughable, but still. I just wanna see the OI, because marketwatch fucked me now in checking it.

>>19191484
Aren't conversion notes debt? Isn't debt lowering per share a good thing? How do you read this, because convertible senior notes isn't "common share price." Afaik this sounds like they paid off some debt.

>>19191582
>muh safespace!

>>19191606
You asked what happened and I told you. The word "vaccine" appeared on the internet and the market lost its collective shit immediately.

>>19191607
>Didn't we get preliminary? Went from 55.6k to 54.9k. Which was laughable, but still. I just wanna see the OI, because marketwatch fucked me now in checking it.
No that was the adjustment from Friday preliminary to Friday final.

>>19191627
Or maybe many states and countries are reopening and increasing demand as well? Just a thought.

>>19191453
>Why is the S&P up so fucking high today?
QE infinity, money printer go brr, Trump is taking HCQ so he won't get the covids, and market thinks we'll have a fast recovery like this never happened.
>>19191543
Somehow we magically have both less supply *and* more demand, despite an Arab oil cartel which is well known for lying about it's actual export amounts (hint: they're more) and a surge in world oil demand; despite India extending lockdown into June and China now having ongoing lockdowns.
Btw, actual arguments go a lot further here than saying "I'm sorry you don't understand x, sweaty".

>>19191646
Which ones? Show me the demand. Show me the traffic. Because I can show you about 9000 tankers in a fucking traffic jam off the coast of California.

>>19191667
>Btw, actual arguments go a lot further here than saying "I'm sorry you don't understand x, sweaty".
Our trolls have zero actual arguments but their FUD is right anyway and that's what is driving me up a wall.

>>19191667
>Somehow we magically have both less supply *and* more demand,
Oil production has been cut all over the world and demand is slowly returning because of reopenings. This is well known, why does everyone here act like its a myth? Do you not go outside? Businesses around me are packed and traffic is as busy as ever. This is also seen across the country in states that are reopening, its getting warm and people are tired of the meme flu.

>>19191627
>lose my shit
>better invest in Lenovo and HP!
kek. The market will move and the news will ascribe it to a, b, or c. It really doesn't matter. Whether the news is first or the market is first, there's really nothing going on here in the day to day.

>>19191646
also, isn't that supposed to be priced in? aren't we forward looking?

>>19191667
>QE infinity, money printer go brr
This is why we still are watching price discovery act ass retarded, because it's bubble dynamics. the market will literally do what it wants until we are in fear of a company or the market broadly losing its access to cheap debt. It's why financials are all in the dirt except for payments processors.

>>19191607
>>Aren't conversion notes debt? Isn't debt lowering per share a good thing? How do you read this, because convertible senior notes isn't "common share price." Afaik this sounds like they paid off some debt.
CONVERTIBLE BONDS
You get dilluted once their mature

>>19191690
Same. It would be nice if we saw something to counteract the FUD but it's not happening.

>>19191668
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html

This pretty common knowledge.

>>19191693
>Businesses around me are packed and traffic is as busy as ever.
Take a picture. You won't. Because you're a liar.

>>19191696
That is literally what happened. BUY BUY BUY BUY immediately happened.

>>19191484
>>19191607
Actually yea, I just looked it up. Senior notes are debt issuances, credit. Credit in fact that people could decide to buy and unlike a bond you get a conversion rate of share numbers in relation to principle. Like a bond, except based off equities rather than interest. What that means is that they don't need funding, and are paying off debt, thus they will provide a lesser conversion rate due to a less need for funding.

This is bullish news. Don't be misleading.

>>19191645
So....the fuck. Now what. I hate being unable to have information, I want a source to know the numbers ffs.

>>19191699
This is good though. A company that needs less financing issues a lower conversion rate. Just like how companies in need of more financing issue a higher. Just like bond interest. These are good signs.

>>19191718
"taking steps to begin" does not empty Cushing.

>>19191727
>he doesn't believe me that there are people on the roads
I'm so sorry that you're in a situation where you can no longer go outside for whatever reason. That honestly must really suck, I hope you get well mentally and or physically soon and get some fresh air.

>>19191734
No its not
Its convertible bonds
They could issue normal bonds
But they chose to fuck over shareholders by giving convertible bonds that will dilute the share price

>>19191753
I'm innawoods I go out everyday.

Show the pictures of your packed stores and traffic jams. That shit would be all over the news of it were happening. It isn't because it isn't.

>>19191750
https://www.fox5ny.com/video/684903
I'm sure I can dig up a hundred things like this and so could you if you weren't so stubbornly refusing to believe anything but your own imaginary contango.

>>19191727
how do you know that A -> B. not B -> A or B -> A -> B? Where's your proof? We're watching shit unfold that flies in the face of all reason of any kind. I have serious doubts that you can substantiate that this relationship does not have an A*B coefficient.

>>19191753
do we have any actual US data? If we account for demand by examining supply, there's not enough people driving unless there are hiccups in getting to the pump (akin to the meat issues).

>>19191791
>do we have any actual US data?
see >>19191779

It's already up 22% in NYC since March 30th

>inb4 "muh safe space plebbit faggot"

God these threads are getting intolerable. How come you guys can't just discuss the fundamentals of tankers instead of arguing about whether you're right or wrong based on anecdotes and shitty logic?

>>19191693 I mean seriously, what the fuck is this shit?

>"muh cousins doctor said corona can be killed by bleaching your butthole"

Nobody cares about your anecdotes. At least try to argue like you passed your senior year of high school. Use some statistics and evidence based reasoning to back up your claims instead of shouting:

>"YOU USE GOOGLE!"
>"NO YOU USE GOASGOGLE AAAAA OOOOO"

>>19191779
You live in NYC?

ALSO, HOW THE HELL DID WE MISS FRONT MONTH GOING ABOVE NOT ONLY JULY BUT ALSO AUGUST NOW HOLY SHIT.

>>19191830
No its just the first thing that popped up when I searched for it like you could have done if you did your DD.

>>19191828
>muh anecdotes
Here you go you lazy bastard: >>19191779
22% increase in traffic in NYC since March 30th and that was on May 4th, its likely much higher now.

What did he mean by this

>>19190334
I'm just a bizlet who doesn't really know what hes doing with real stonks, I just hang out here cause I bought oil and assumed oil and tankies were both for this general
my FANG is up so I'm comfy atm, waiting for oil to rebound, might buy some more XOM at these discount prices
I'm pretty confident they are oil-proof, once new energies sources are used they will be on the frontlines staking claim to the market imo

>>19191882
He liquidated his position.

Oil futures looking red now. Good signs.

>>19191775
So...diluting it LESS by lowering the share conversion rate is bad? They are diluting it less which is good if that is your view. Also many companies offer senior notes, from many sectors. And who is to say they don't issue regular bonds? All tankers talk mostly in senior notes, it isn't unique, and you can get senior notes from many companies that certainly aren't "fucking over shareholders." Overall, I fail to see how this isn't a good thing. Even if you don't like the practice, it is a good sign to lower the enticement/necessity of it.

>>19187634
WHY? WHY MUST YOU TEMPT ME TO RAAAWWL

>>19191603
>but seriously what the fuck is going on?
something something market irrational something something solvent

>>19191882
He's taking a 30 day break from twitter

>>19187634
Roll again for the utah harem

>>19191909
Convertible bonds always dillute shareholders whe nthe bonds mature
They should've of issued normal bonds instead

>>19191938
Smart considering the slaughterhouse that tuesday will bring.

>>19191961
He understands that June contracts didn't react as he predicted but is still long tankers.

>>19191779
It's definitely a significant amount of use. We'll have to see how much it increases. I really want to watch data for California. They have a huge footprint. We'll have to see how many more tankers end up floating around. A good portion of the rest of the world seems to be near or at capacity and not consuming enough. We'll just have to watch how many tankers are floating around.

>>19191891
>might buy some more XOM at these discount prices
>I'm pretty confident they are oil-proof
they are likely oil proof. Don't expect that money to do much for a while, i think. enjoy the debt divvies, fren

>>19187634
Roll for posterity

>>19191978
He said long term was shit right before he shut down his twitter.

>>19191882
Either he is having doubts and liquidated, or he's holding but the last I checked he was having his ass torn up for backing off from his stronger predictions and just saying "hold longer" so he may have locked his tweets to stop the yelling. It's hard to say what happened, since he locked his tweets.

>>19191696
>the market will literally do what it wants until we are in fear of a company or the market broadly losing its access to cheap debt. It's why financials are all in the dirt except for payments processors.
that's actually a nice insight. i hadn't thought of how the fed stepped in and basically took over financing

>>19191989
cool story bro

>>19191983
http://archive.is/TFXB1
>A new preference for car commuting is also apparent in Europe—where the virus had devastated crude demand more than anywhere else.

This also brings up good points about auto usage increasing because of everyone is avoiding mass transit.

>>19192011
It was this tweet:
>>19189441
It was already posted here earlier.

>>19191693
I agree, and want out as much as anyone else. But the numbers that everyone was going on which led to the issue of negative oil(Crude supply/demand/storage), you're gonna tell me they were *all* wrong, and the IEA/Rystad/Et. all somehow simultaneously just messed up? I'm willing to let a bad trade go but I'm just not buying that suddenly both gasoline *and* industrial demand is back to normal overnight, enough to eliminate the issues that led up to this trade to begin with.

>>19191909
>Oil futures looking red now. Good signs.
It's tracking the DOW again.

It did it all day EXCEPT it ignored the end of day dump. Then immediately resumed tracking at it's newly customary super low volume.

This shit is unreal.

>>19192043
The numbers weren't wrong at the time but a lot can change in a month.

>>19191882
JUST

>>19192043
EIA flat out lied.

API correctly assessed the situation and reported the 8m barrel build and EIA said nah fuck that oil in tankers doesn't count and we've been blockading them from unloading for weeks so LOL 700k draw.

WE HAVE MONDAY PRELIMINARY

34m barrels in open interest heading into the final day of the contract. If 10% settles we're looking at the same amount that sent shit negative last month only now the storage situation is even worse.

>>19192043
i think it all really depends on who can shout the loudest. and right now big oil has a megaphone directly in wallstreets ear.

i'm curious how futures will settle tomorrow. is it possible that they have enough buyers to settle all those june contracts? and if so, where will they deliver?

>>19192141
Forgot pic

>>19192043
The thing is that even if demand is not back up to normal, we are easing out of quarantine so the markets are already moving in that direction. And even though there's still a giant oil glut with no signs of stopping and these tankers are floating off the coasts in droves... reality doesn't actually seem to matter anymore so tankers could just keep crabbing. I'd like to see some positive moment before the end of next week.

>>19192000
I joked about the DOW looking like the meme bubble chart a while ago, and some fag jabbed and said
>2008 was the bear trap
But in all honesty, 2008 was the beginning of a debt based growth economy. We had a big sell off and then were left in a low rate environment for years, assets being propped up by the fed all the way through 2017. Debt based buybacks were the norm 2012 and on, and the 2019 rocket was primarily fueld by a return of these buybacks and the FED also laying off on their balance sheet contraction. Now in 2020, we have 3 fucking weeks in Q1 that we're closed, and many companies are so fucking leveraged that they can't meet their obligations. They're walking moral hazards, and the back to normal is "Oh! the FED will provide infinite credit and liquidity, so our stocks are fine!" That said, the FED has only been concerned with one thing, and it's functional credit markets. Not abusable credit markets, not expanding credit markets, functional so corporations and people can buy and sell debt. We're going to see a long term drag. If we get a second leg down, it's only the beginning. I'm bearish until probably 2022.

>>19192013
thanks for the archived link. I don't feel like disabling scripts. It seems a bit optimistic. We'll definitely have to watch. I wish i could trust Chinese Data. I think the US data is kinda bad too. It doesn't account for the shit sitting on the shores. I'm also not so sure if the uptick in personal auto use will stay, but if it levels off at old levels, we're definitely past any argument of whether supply is significantly outpacing demand.

>>19192059
I need to run math to get exact values, but it seems like some millions of barrels of oil temporarily were made to go "missing" right when they could cause market problems.
>>19192071
It sucks if you're pro free markets, but if you were a nation state desperately trying to keep a market running on hopium and a monopoly money; this is the kind of stuff I would pull. Tankers are 'delayed' and need 'inspected' by the CG for covids, etc. Bogged, but Illuminati tier "for the greater good".
>>19192141
Cushing doesn't have 34m barrels of storage left, lol. If my bogged hypothesis is right, we should roll over and literally have nothing happen, with an announcement wed. of greater demand / less builds than expected (and SPY 350 because why not)

>>19192212
... You in Western PA?

>>19191948
Why are you capitalizing on people's ignorance? Been looking this up as I go, but I can buy convertible senior bonds for Microsoft and Johnson and Johnson. If it is such a scummy practice, how come some of the most stable companies in the world allow them to be issued? And DHT does issue normal bonds too.

>>19192044
I don't understand it either. Is this really some guy who left it on? Is he going to start the sell off by accident since DOW futures are going down and it is making the bull retailers quake in fear? This is so messed up, fuck this one guy kek.

>>19192141
34 million!? Excuse me?! You do realize last month we only had 3.5 million, right?! This is fucking apocalyptic.

>>19192234
Not far off, what gave it away? Look, if you're planning to v& me for knowing too much you should know I'm pretty easily bought off, lol.

>>19192295
>34 million!? Excuse me?! You do realize last month we only had 3.5 million, right?! This is fucking apocalyptic.
Yes but only a fraction of open interest gets settled so I'm tempering expectations a little.

Of course if anything close to 34m settled we'd see -$200 before the day ended.

>>19192320
People around here love to forget the words "to be" and I can never get used to it so it sticks out.

>>19192295
Bro... that pic. Why?

>>19192326
>inb4 donald pump at 3pm tweets fresh 50% tariffs at whiny prince, iran, and vlad that sends oil straight to $40.

>>19192295
Convertible bonds ALWAYS dilute shareholder's equity once they mature
if i have a 100 share company and issue 100 convertible bonds, the share price is halved once the bonds mature compared to having normal bonds

>>19192326
Well wait, what happens if they don't settle? Where does the oil go? Can the sellers actually hold it themselves?

Also, makes me curious then if the 3.5k was the settlement or the opening. What are your opinions/facts on this? To me, this looks "holy fuck" levels.

>>19192351
Because I am eternally horny and I like feet posting sometimes.

>>19192364
If that happens I'm just dumping fucking everything because I can't take it anymore.

>>19192386
>Well wait, what happens if they don't settle? Where does the oil go? Can the sellers actually hold it themselves?
I'm honestly not sure and, to be honest with you, at this point I don't think the people trading these contracts are sure either.

Although there can't be very many of them trading with the insanely low volume we've been seeing.

Only a matter of hours now.

>>19192341
Oh language structure. Yep, I'm very much guilty of not using "to be". It's easy to forget you can localize people that way. Still, I'm levels above relatives that turk' bout' givin' ther boots a warsh down at the crik. I swear we're more redneck then Kentucky in some places.
> if anything close to 34m settled we'd see -$200 before the day ended.
Market might have already priced this in. At least my UCO yolo put would print.

That's a lot of red on the front month for being almost midnight.

>>19192386
why would sweat be on the bottom of her feet?

>>19192364
Get Trump to tweet "We're filling up every oil tanker, storage tank, and pool with cheap oil" and we'll be fine no matter what happens

>>19192438
If we saw -$200 oil... IDK what the market would even do it would be like a terrorist attack.

>>19192447
>>19192473

Volume is absolute dick right now. 2 contracts every min or so.

Not sure how they're going to close 30 million barrels of oil in the span of like 24 hours but we'll see.

>>19192377
Again, why is this news "bad" for DHT? It isn't unique, every big company including the most stable and good-rep ones in the world allow you to buy them, and the conversion rate was lowered meaning less dilution. Microsoft is being diluted as we speak due to senior notes, but that doesn't reflect poorly on the company. DHT just made the dilution less now per bond. I fail to see why this is bad news to you and not good news when 1. DHT isn't doing this as an outlier, top companies do it too. And 2. DHT lowered the conversion rate which means that there is less dilution than before.

>>19192429
I am very confused about this as well. I really, really don't know how this plays out. I am pretty sure this is unprecedented. if it isn't in commodity trading, I need to see the results of that moment fast. I am betting it is bearish though.

>>19192461
Because feet sweat? Aqua probably worked hard earlier. Or just fooled around partying and drinking.

>>19192364
would not be shocking

>>19192526
jerome buys it all and stores it in his office

>>19192535
>>19192364
3pm would be far too late in the day. He normally pulls that shit 9-10:30am.

If this thing is going to hit it'll hit hardest in the afternoon.

>>19192555
Check'd, oil futures are going to tank. Praise kek.

Jerome could probably store the 30 million barrels of oil in the ass of all the bears he's raped since March.

>>19192526
It's just enough to track the DOW. It's an algorithm and I am 100% certain about that at this point.

>>19192591
>Futures go positive for DOW
>oil magically goes positive

THIS MOTHER FUCKER WITH HIS ALGORITHM! WHY IS IT STILL ON! IS HE EVEN ALIVE ANYMORE?!

It's the 19th, are you all excited?

>>19193100
Yes. And no. Mostly no due to uncertainty. I don't know where I can go to monitor June contracts since investing.com rolled them over yesterday and marketwatch isn't showing them now. So no idea what is happening. And now July seems to maybe decoupled with the DOW and is trending up. Yet we have 34k OI remaining. I have no fucking idea what is going on or to expect.

>>19193100
Of course, no better place for schadenfreude

>>19193161
Yeah my hands are weakening as we head towards uncharted waters and everything seems increasingly out of step with reality.

>>19193100
There is so much fuckery happening of course I'm excited
>200 ship blockade
>Not enough storage
>Fudged numbers in storage news
>Almost no volume on wti
>Front month went more expensive than the next three months
>Some guy died with his DOW tracking algo and is the only volume on wti
>Brandon went MIA today

I think Brandon going mia is the biggest sign something is going to happen

>>19193177
I swear that if tankers start mooning this week I will get a tattoo of one.

>>19193209
Honestly I might do the same.

>>19193174
what's that dead language you're using?

>>19193176
I know. My hands aren't weakening, I am just feeling depressed. I am holding till the ends of the earth, and I have hope with FRO's earnings. But this oil rally is bullshit, and I am concerned. Concerned that since we DON'T have storage due to tankers (which...can we actually delay them forever? who is paying them every day for weeks now?! How long will this continue, will we see hundreds soon while claiming supply is falling?!) that we may have common sense and fall, or clown world initiates and people believe there is room only for them to be surprised when trying to deliver. Which...what happens then!? I don't know! What happens if there is like 30 million barrels unsettled? I don't know! What happens if the dead algo guy buys every last barrel by accident? I don't know! How does this low volume make sense when we likely won't receive the same VOLUME as there is OI? I don't know!!!

This is the most fuckey situation I have ever seen in the market.

>>19193177
That's true, where was Brandon? We had tons of shills. But no Brandon. What happened?

But also, all those factors...urgh. It urks me. I am just so uncertain. And what is worse is that no matter the result, such as if oil doesn't fall and it gets bought, I am uncertain about the next steps. I am uncertain about every single step going forward and idk how investors seem to be confident when they can't answer these questions themselves. And this mother fucker tracking the DOW....just sigh. He is the wild card in this and a wild card that can throw the entire world awry potentially.

>>19193310
I really wish there was a way to figure out who dead algo guy actually is. Maybe we will see it in the news soon.

>>19193440
I really, REALLY think the broker should force-sale his contracts if he doesn't answer a call or email tomorrow. If not disclosing this mystery guy, at least please prevent fraud even if such "fraud" can "save" the market.

We'll see what tomorrow brings, scallywags.

>>19187373

1500 DHT
1000 FRO
500 EURN

how fucked am i?

>>19194573
Making it while fucked. Seriously, this is the life of a tanker chad. Your stocks are worth enough to make you rich, but you gotta be poor. It is a life of bewilderment and peak clown market. You will never feel worse than when doing this play which is the best.

>>19192528
feet and palms don't sweat

>>19194742
They do though. Mine do, so I know for a fact they can.

>>19194742
>feet dont sweat
sweaty socks are just a myth

This fucker has tracked the DOW all night. Back to sleep...

>>19194573
What are your break evens?
Because people that bough last week are flying.

>>19195887
Dht 6.99
Fro 8.47
Eurn 9.93

>>19196202
You'll be fine.
Hold strong and you be in the money. Then stoploss your way up.

>>19196202
I unironically wish I could trade my calls for your AMLP.

>>19191882

Lol, he had a mental breakdown after his embarassing bagholder tweets. I'm long tankers but it was just sad

>>19187634
Last time I saw this, I rolled for and prayed for and got Hungarian.
Let's have another go.
ROLL

>>19197096
Not the result I wanted, but there's a few nice ladies in row 4

look at this shit
this has been going on for DAYS

i've pinpointed when WTI started to move in lockstep with the DOW and it was last wednesday at noon

>>19197463
since wednesday? good lord -.- wtf is this shit

did you see the open interest? 34 Million barrel still out there. this is going to be the greatest scam today. since i doubt it will go down today

>>19197805
I doubt it will go down as well. But what happens to all the oil then?

>>19197805
>>19197867
That's the Monday preliminary number. So that should update to be a bit lower.

More will settle today and we'll be left with a fraction of that in open interest, but even a fraction of that should be enough to cause massive trouble.

We should be 4-5 hours away from knowing, at this point.

Brandon is either gone or asleep. If he's gone... fuck I don't even know what that would mean. Probably nothing.

FRO/STNG both up +3% in premarket
DHT up 1.16%

if we see an opening dump, i don't know what to say

>>19197908
I honestly don't expect a moon missions for tankers anymore. But they are undervalued and good stocks so I'll keep them. Let's see what happens, we have many more months for oil to drop to the negative range.

Premarket numbers:

ASC: +1.89%
DHT: +1.16%
EURN: +2.22%
INSW: +3.12%
NAT: +1.45%
NNA: +2.46%
OSG: -3.03%
STNG: +3.1%

>>19197932
if WTI goes negative, the algos alone should give tankers a gigantic boost across the board which would very well be enough to induce FOMO and from there it's anybody's guess

WTI has had 0 (zero) volume in the past half hour or so

>>19197997
I just won't expect anything anymore. I have been disappointed too often.

>>19198018
I've been watching this shit like an autist for weeks now. Here is what I've noticed as being applicable to the current situation.

1. WTI is tied algorithmically to the DOW and this has become more pronounced as human beings increasingly left front month WTI
1a. Yesterday afternoon showed signs of human activity with large high volume downward movement and ONLY low volume upward movement.
2. Tankers are inversely tied algorithmically to WTI.
2a. Or at least, they were. That tie seems to have been severed yesterday afternoon.
3. Huge amounts of institutional money, some under significant names, has been documented flooding into the sector (specifically DHT) during March, with very little institutional money exiting and no significant names exiting.
4. Today is May 19th

>>19192386
Imagine the smell

there has been zero volume for the past 45 minutes on WTI front month, and it's past 8am EST. the chart won't even update because there's been no activity whatsoever

there's no way in hell nobody is trying to sell purchase options

Volume by day:
May 12: 160,903
May 13: 122,446
May 14: 130,795
May 15: 85,231
May 18: 57,021
Today so far: 1,513
In the past hour: 0

Remaining OI (minimum needed today to close out all positions): ~34k
Volume needed over the rest of the day in order for those options to have a CHANCE at closing without requiring delivery: 32,500 with 100% of that being selling

>>19198118
>>19198373
Interesting tides, tankerchads.

>>19198373
Is this actually a problem? The remaining open interest could be in the hands of people/companies capable of taking delivery?

>>19198464
34,000,000 barrels of oil represented by current OI.

3,500,000 barrels sent WTI into negative last month.

>>19195506
No they aren't.

>>19197997
>>19198118
>>19198373
Tankers are going straight up! Up! Yay!

But these statistics for June contracts are...worrisome. and confusing. I got no clue what is going to happen.

>>19198223
I do and I love it.

>>19198464
This

>>19198478
>>19198464
Alright, I am taking some hopium after preparing to hold DHT for the next year. Indeed, WTI is behaving like a storm is coming. I expected somewhere that this wouldn't happen because of some backroom dealings by Big Don.

Premarket numbers:

ASC: +1.86%
DHT: +.66%
EURN: +2.22%
INSW: +2.4%
NAT: +1.65%
NNA: +2.46%
OSG: -3.03%
STNG: +3.04%

I stopped caring about what tankers do since last week
This market is a fucking joke and it doesn't help to keep looking at it every day
I've only got 125 shares at 8.73, it'll go up eventually but stressing out over this fucking market is no good for my health

>>19198521
he can derail this whole fucking train with his twitter account and i wish we could meme an EMP over DC so all phones are rendered inoperable and he can't tweet for the rest of the day

>>19198538
I-is this it tankerchads? Are we about to lift off?

>>19198551
*shares of FRO

>>19198538
Got TNP?

>>19198575
Woah. +5.56%

I'll add them to the list.

>>19198564
After hours is positive, as per usual.
If retail can get out of its own way for ONE FUCKING DAY

>>19198687
Well, we are REALLY positive though this time, kek. Like, very positive. So idk. The big question is still oil....wtf is gonna happen. Hell, maybe tankers are gonna skyrocket because they think nothing will happen. Nothing happening means oil storage needed, no Cushing available, they contract tankers. Some producers might of already contracted ahead of time.

Or everyone thinks we crash into the sun, either-or.

Also where are the shills? Isn't it....too quiet?

>>19198743
>The big question is still oil....wtf is gonna happen.
Donald Trump will tweet that he is allowing the emergency storage of crude oil in Jamba Juice cups and tankers lose whatever they gained that day and 1% more

>>19198743
Just enjoy this hilariously bogged ride footanon, will be wild either way - remain brave and don't let yourself be bucked.

>>19198743
well, there would need to be an unconventional delivery. It's not uncommon, but it definitely has to go somewhere, and it's likely a chartered ship.

>>19198762
I reviewed /smg/ overnight. It's quiet there too. My own chat groups are also oddly quiet.

I'm gonna be pissed if nothing interest happens today. There's been so much hype around this date, and I want to see firework.

>>19198763
I can see that happening. He will open the White House front doors for more space and put it in the oval office if it means he doesn't have to see a surplus.

>>19198776
I know right. Just...value! Market be damned! I am and been holding tight though. I am not letting go no matter how bogged.

>>19198777
Trips may confirm, checked. Very weird, silent situation. Can only wait and see.

>>19198816
Who knows, everything is unprecedented. We might see tanker charters rather than negative oil, would be hilarious.

>>19198816
Same.

>>19198851
>Can only wait and see
morning coffee is always somethin' else

>>19198478
US is starting in half an hour.

At what point is a negative ineviatable?

TNP up 12% premarket

>>19198868
So cozy that I don't care im down money.

The last few days have ended with small gains so maybe market sentiment is reversing

>FRO pumping in pre-market
BASED

hold on seacat

>>19198851
>>19198864

Regardless, comfy vibes are off the charts right now. I don't really give a shit if we don't moon. Tanker stocks are still value stocks, which will always beat TSLA, SQ and meme stocks in the long run. Everyone is shitting on us, but we're just being patient and not trying to throw away our money.

Just take in the good vibes and keep it coz-e frens.

FRO up nearly 7% premarket? What the hell is happening?

>>19198969
Brandon's either not here because he's an insider who knows we're down for SHTF, or because he's a troll and he doesn't know yet whether or not he'll be able to gloat.

>>19199040
pre-earnings pump. not sure if it's a sell the news kind of thing, but i'll only get antsy if it's up like 35%

>>19199061
retail already sold the "news"

The clouds be partin’ and the seas be a calming lads! Is this it? Smooth sailing to the moon from here on out?? When are you selling? FRO @$10? EURN @$12? DHT @$9? STNG @$20?

>>19199084
yeah, i don't know. DHT had a huge slew of buys after the dividend. I have a feeling earnings won't do too much for price.

>>19199107
DHT reported earnings several weeks ago pre-market pumped like crazy and retail sold at open like a bunch of retarded bitches

>>19199104
FRO $10.50-11, holding EURN for the foreseeable unless it hits something stupidly high, really fond of them and their position in the market.

>>19199104
DHT TO $18 MF DON'T PLAY WITH ME

>>19199104
>FRO @$10?
>EURN @$12?
Literally not selling unless they almost double, in which case i will offload about 1/3 of my position.
>DHT @$9?
I'll wait for at least $12
>STNG @$20?
I'm sitting with STNG till it gets to $55 or higher.
You can call me retarded, but that's my set of targets at the moment.

>>19199156
Lets hope so

>>19198868
Just got my coffee. Let's see if we remain cozy.

>>19198969
Exactly. Pure, unadulterated, value. And no one to interrupt. Like cozying up by the fire with hot cocoa and frens. Still gonna have lots of ooo and aaa probably with oil though.

>>19199104
I hope so. Our ship is battered by wind and storm, creaks with every rock. I want my comfy voyage now.

>>19199128
Aye, I want to keep believing they’re more valuable then what we’ll see this week. These past few weeks have really battered my resolve though...sea cat can only hold for so long. I don’t want to regret jumping ship before a moon landing though.

>>19199161
Not retarded, analyst expectations and book value peg it at @55/share. This is gonna be easy once they pay off their 3b long term debt, especially if they locked in a lot of those clean rates. Even if they get down to 500mil that's extremely good financial health, they're already significantly delevering right now.

Reminder: Volume today is more important than price.

34,000 positions need to be closed. Whatever the remaining OI is at the end of today gets put into these dates.

>>19199354
It's not closing negative, just not happening.

>>19199354
But...what happens to price? I want price to go down! That is the whole wtf I been experiencing, how price hasn't fallen yet.

>>19199396
It doesn't need to. If it hits around $10 we're good to go.

>>19199396

>>19199398
Price goes down when whoever is holding the bag realizes they are holding the bag and has to pay people to take their oil.

>>19199396
Ok.

>>19199398
Might be some sort of insider short squeeze till they ready to dump. Backwardation doesn't make sense in this market

>>19199434
But.....what if the dead algo mystery man holds all the bags? What if he actually died and gets all of them, kek.

>>19199449
I hope. I just hope "dump," that is all, I care not how. Just please...dump already. You are 10 dollars above spot market price ffs, with 34k OI. That is so wrong.

>>19199434
rising price and semi decreasing OI could be shot covering, right?

7am volume yesterday = 1,386
7am volume today = 18

8am volume yesterday = 999
8am volume today = 67

Somebody is holding some heavy bags right now and I never thought I'd be this excited to watch VOLUME.

9am volume yesterday = 1,539
9am volume so far today = 60

>>19191231
Clown world

>>19199533
>>19199502

So what, if volume doesn't reach 30k by tonight we see negative oil or something? Can't the person writing the contracts just close them and keep the oil?

>>19199396
this, nobody is stupid enough to buy these without being able to take delivery after last month fiasco

Somebody has about 5 hours left to unload 34,000,000 barrels worth of purchase orders.

Unless the WTI preliminary OI number from Monday is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off. It's normally off by like 1k or something.

and Walla, just like that FRO will never be under $8 again

>>19199567
>Can't the person writing the contracts just close them and keep the oil?

Of course they can. They could have last month.

Where the hell are they going to put 34,000,000 barrels of oil?

>>19199585
that did not age well

It’s over lads....the pre-market Green was just the final wave of the storm. The big one. We tried but it just wasn’t enough to clear the wavebreak. As we tumble back down into the dark cold depths, I’d like to say it’s been an honor sailing with you all. May we finally find peace at the bottom of Davy Jones locker.

How does DHT bomb every single morning. Can’t wait to offload this trash. It’s the new NAT

>>19198777
>My own chat groups are also oddly quiet.
Are you posting in them yourself? If not, why not? Your reasons might be the same as theirs.

BRANDONS INCOMING

>>19199607
There's still hope! We've got until 4:00.

ENTIRE MARKET IS DOWN AT OPEN NOT JUST TANKERS
DO NOT PANIC OR EXHAUSTION SELL

>>19199502
Volume is exciting right now. Because it is SUCH wtf. Seriously, how is this gonna play out?!

>>19199582
I don't think 1k matters in this situation.

>>19199607
FRO earnings. Enough said. Also mroning dump always happens, kek. Convinced some people got algos to auto dump it every day.

I hate DHT almost as much as I hate myself

New
>>19199680

>>19199680

>>19199680

>>19199632
It's just skypegen. these chats have been around for over 5 years. Just something strange, like people acting out on the full moon.

Im worried about dead algo guy. Is there anyway we could get someone to check on him? Maybe find his broker and ask them to make sure he is okay?

>>19199677
You'll get a DHT tattoo before this is over if you hold.

>>19199677
Svein the man will not let us down

>>19198551
>but stressing out over this fucking market is no good for my health
This exactly.

Not gonna lie, I got dizzy watching everything not unfolding at all and at the same time seeing the market moon...

But analysing back my choices, would have made them again because they were right choices and statistically they will give me the best results.

The risk reward was too good to pass up!
What did I lose? Time, all the money I'm down I'm getting in back slowly.