/biz/ - Business & Finance

THREAD THEME: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5xR7jBxDw


Big week ahead chums, stay the course.

NAT report will be found here - https://www.nat.bm/2020/?cat=4

They have not clarified exactly when it will be published.

How do you guys see the tanker market being affected, if the long-term reliability of a North American electric utility happens to go down?

For example, existing deferred maintenance on some (even nuclear!) plants leading to problems, shutdown of coal plants due to high operating costs, continued COVID-19 effects, or electrically volatile renewables with not enough energy storage capacity (batteries).

In California the electric utility is afraid to do anything due to liabilities, they did actually shut down power to customers due to wildfire risks that burned them previously.

Oil demand

>>19169571
When is oil going to dump lads?

>>19169571
Thank you based OP. This week is gonna be big, who knows what the sea will throw at us.

>>19169617
Leave it to NAT to be the only tanker that doesn't have their shit together for investors to know about their earnings release time and their conference call all the way until the day they are due. Truly the shittiest tanker, they better blow expectations out of the water to make up for their incompetence and weak fleet.

>>19169630
Bullish for tankers in that demand goes down meaning oil available for storage. I still believe that if demand decreases and supply goes lower companies will pick up production again and fuck any sense of balancing up, but supposing supply decreases and demand decreases...well, might get an early scrap at the end of the year. Which will preserve rates and increase stock. As well as poise them to capitalize even harder should another contango happen then.

That said, side note, even if electric utilities are having issues in generalI am bullish af on NEE.

>>19169656
On the brightside, commutes have never been faster!

>>19169630
Not something i've ever considered, what are your thoughts on the matter?

>>19169723
Choppy waters dear anon, it's good we get NAT out of the way first, SFL/FRO/TNK/oil rollovers should see us through to a positive week. I'm personally loooooong on tankers, but I suspect there'll be lots of price action both ways.

>>19169721
Strap in lil' nigga

>>19169630
>>19169723
On that note there are some folks that I've spoken with, who work for fairly big players as far as electric demand is concerned - they seem to be bearish on the grid and bullish on oil products. Some of them have increased their fuel capacity and all of them have topped off their diesel fuel reserves as expected. Some of those with synchronous prime generating capacity have been burning excess diesel in order to take advantage of the low prices vs grid power.

>>19169877
Interesting - I suppose it's a matter of timing, we want the imbalance to last for a while yet while the fleet approaches scrappage age, if the ships are scrapped and we then see a massive uptick in oil demand in the US, that will continue to drive memey rates.

>>19169834
Yea, on the brightside since NAT is retail, if they crush expectations then retail may start the boost. But FRO should be immense. They have a strong history of surpassing expectations, and they are hedgie's favorite since the beginning of time. I am long too actually, least "long unless a peak comes that I just laugh at and can't resist cashing out on." Because these companies are just...great in value right now. Especially STNG, over my dead body will I sell its shares before it boosts. But I am steeled for some negative action too. I won't be surprised unless we actually go below lows. In which case....daddy EURN, stop talking about buybacks and just do them! Set an example!

>>19169877
That is a tad weird to be bullish on oil and bearish on electric. Question for oil is bullish mid-term or this contract? Huge difference. I think someone bullish for like, August, is probably right. Electrical I need to study on, I am too ignorant to make long comments or give analysis on. I just know I looked across them at one point and pointed out NEE as my fav if I decide to pick up a utility. That, and they supply me my electricity so...makes sense to invest in what you use.

Damn, that hurts. SCO taking HUGE beating right now, hurting my bottom line. But FRO got a good first uptick so green. I just want to stick around for a bit before sleeping to get a general idea of sentiment.

>>19169965
Couldn't agree more. I'm intending to stick around to see whether or not the stars actually are aligning for a new supercycle over the next few years - if they are, fuck me i'm lucky to have bought in near historic lows; if they aren't, by the time I find out i'll have collected enough divvies to move on pain free.

>>19169982
You'll be fine anon, not to worry

I sold DHT on Friday at $6.39 to avoid the 30% dividend withholding tax. I have no capital gains tax.

If oil does not go negative, it should produce mixed emotions.

Anger, because the situation is entirely fabricated and our entire financial system is a lie.

Relief, because all you need to do in the future is whatever the news tells you to, because the fed will ensure green line only go up.

Turn off your brains, kids. You don't need them in clown world. In fact, they only seem to get in the way.

Very positive start for EURN eurostock & FRO pre-market, now just need some positive movement for my beautiful Nippon Princess

>>19169877
>>19169944
What will hurt private substation operators is fuckery with refining. They will stop burning prime power if the bulk diesel price starts rising, they are just doing it to recover the capital cost of having to install it for emergency use. And refineries have to sell off every distillation/cracking fraction, kerosene and gasoline are notoriously hard to sell right now. I'm curious to see where that goes since the oil product reserves could possibly dry up for a specific category. I don't know enough about the chemistry to really comment though.

Something that I'm curious about is if refineries start to sell diesel with higher sulfur content. Pretty much all the diesel on the market until now has been low sulfur. It shouldn't have much of an effect on prime/standby engines because they are not usually subject to air quality regulations (idk about "green" initiatives)

>>19169965
Adding on to what I've seen.
The private substation operators don't usually buy enough on a consistent basis to warrant anything other than spot price, they usually get it through distributors. In my corner of the grid, nobody pre-covid would run their generators at anything above low power, most are idling or standby even if their equipment is rated for prime.

>>19170077
Yea, the divvies is part of why I am very chill about just holding. They are secured for a year at least, kek. But I hope SCO will be fine, I went on margin for this and while it isn't financially painful (won't get a margin call if stuff falls, I am fine, fee low, this isn't an issue) I would love it if SCO pulls what it did the past 2 months so I can just erase a bulk of it. If I do, basically then one quarter's of divvies could effectively erase the rest and I am really on a golden ticket going forward in max comfy. It's a bit of a scheme, and if it works I am VERY happy. if it doesn't....well, my position is manageable still anyways.

>>19170113
How I am feeling. If it doesn't at least half, minimum, then I might as well throw out any books I have on economics because clearly we are making up shit as we go now. I did more than my due diligence, and can talk this current situation with the best of them right now. Honestly, this isn't even Fed, Fed can't touch this. If this was just Fed intervention I wouldn't care that much. This is like....economics 101 supply and demand. Printing money doesn't affect it, we got buyers, we got sellers, we got too much inventory, and little demand. It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out. So if the answer is wrong...well, no point in ever thinking with the market again now is there? Unless I can see a very convincing reason where I go "wow, makes sense, should of noticed/thought of that."

>>19170145
Yep, gonna sleep now for a while now. FRO is always the first one to move every day. Hedgie's favorite. Seems like hedgies like it today. EURN had a bit up too before back to 0. Good start.

>>19170212
There's nowhere to put the fucking oil.

Somebody is getting paid to bid this shit up and there are zero other possibilities.

Open interest is still at 55 million barrels. People are NOT getting out because the price is just going up up up up up.

June is going higher than July right now. As if there is either so much demand or so little supply that there is a rarity issue. But the reality is diametrically oppressed to that.

If you can charge a premium for something that is in so low demand and high supply that it's sitting in tankers for months (MONTHS, now) with no one willing to offload it, then... wtf else could you sell?

You should be able to sell ANYTHING no matter how few people want it or however many millions of it you've made.

I am so fucking angry that I live in this timeline.

God the anticipation is killing me

>>19170306
oil jumped 5% and is still rising above the 30$ mark. with so much up pressure its not impossible to make the gap to 41+$ in a few days...

pure clown if this happens since shits even more fucked since last month and the SA-tankers are just forming a line to drop their shit asap

OH GOD MY SCOOOOOO

>>19170547
Shorting oil while holding tankers is called being retarded

>>19170212
Sleep well anon.

Are front month traders basically playing chicken at this point?

We're told they aren't that stupid, but SOMEBODY was that stupid last month.

Is it even possible that there is anybody trading oil futures at this point who DOESN'T know what could happen to them?

I think the only one who's even tried to explain this is Brandon and our resident retard shovels nothing but hopium.

>>19170680
my goal for today was shorting the living daylight out of WTI Oil front month but dude...i dont understand whats going on here. the price cant be based on hopium alone. its a fucking commodity, not a stock.

we have too much of this shit.

>>19170756
>>19170680
the meltdown has begun, gonna be a fun week watching your heads explode everyday as oil climbs and floating storage falls

>>19170756
That's why I say somebody is being paid to do it. Otherwise who in the hell would take this risk? Everyone else exited the fuck out of front month weeks ago.

kP3ybQ6r

Brandon filter

>>19170306
you oil storage memers sure like to drink the tanker kool aid huh?

Guxa9HjA

Brandon filter

>>19170306
how much open interest did we have last month?

>>19171673
It was 3.5 million in open interest in April that sent shit negative.

We are at 55 million right now. If 10% of that is forced to settle that's 5.5 million.

There is no fucking way...

>>19171702
So for dummies...
we have more then 15 times the amount of pressure and yet 0 reaction?
is it even possible for the price to stay this high with lets say 20 million in open interest?

>>19171824
We are reeeeeeeeeally in line 2.

>>19171824
This one screenshot will show all 3 variables.

We've got price rising a ridiculous 8%
We've got volume dropping off a cliff, and it began doing that about 2 weeks ago.
We've got open interest falling. It's still high, but it sure isn't going to go up.

>>19171881
>show all 3 variables
I had one job...

>>19171839
If this chart is to be believed, we're in for some fireworks. Because this price is skyrocketing on insanely low volume.

>>19171839
My question remains...what happens if we have like 20 millions in open interest by the end of the day? A scenario most likely by declining volume...

>>19172195
If there were 20m in open interest, and nowhere to put 20m barrels of oil, then prices could very well go in excess of $100 NEGATIVE.

20m would be a massive number, though. I don't think even the biggest bear would expect that.

Just look at the volume

This is flatline shit.

And tamkers sink even more lmao

>>19172384
FRO at 7.72$ pre-market
>sinking.

The volume has been so low over the past two days that it doesn't even show on the chart.

>>19172240
I sold everything but tanker stocks.
The oil rally is really upsetting. Better to wait out and see what happens at the rollover.

Seems there is a lot of people waiting to short.

On the day before the crash last month volume was 213,600.

Volume has not been that high since May 7th.

Volume:
May 8 - 178,222
May 11 - 157,369
May 12 - 160,903
May 13 - 122,446
May 14 - 130,795
May 15 - 85,231 (day before)
May 18 - 6,712 (day of?)

what's that
temporary?

>>19170306
This....is ridiculous. 1.5% volume this price is shooting up on. There is like 1 contract bought every minute on average....this is price manipulation at its finest. July is just simply following in its footsteps. I am still holding till Tuesday, my SCO be damned, I don't believe in this.

>>19170604
Eh. Guess I didn't. I woke up naturally, no alarm needed, about 3 hours sleep. That isn't good. Ah well though.

>>19172220
>>19172558
You know...we might be able to have 20k left due to volume constraints alone assuming every buy is genuine at this rate. What a fucking world we live in.

>>19172472
Everyone is shorting. I am fairly certain there is more shorts than longs floating right now.

DHT has dropped
I was correct about selling before the ex-dividend date.

Anyone know about NAT's earnings yet?

>>19172472
Tankers are doing great which is nice. The good side of this morning.

>>19173199
By 20 cents. Dividend over 30. Meaning if you didn't buy back in yet you fucked up. Unless you are 30% tax guy, in which case you are even if buying back in now.

>>19173256
I sold at $6.39
It is now $6.06
I have a 30% dividend withholding tax.
As long I I purchase below $6.145, I am profitable.

>>19173294
how much do you have in DHT total?
seems like an awful lot of uncertainty to take on

>>19173310
2000 at $6.28
and 5 puts that were not assigned to me

OI! NAT RELEASED EARNINGS GUYS!

Estimate is 0.25 per share, NAT got 0.27 per share, beat earnings! Little NAT did it, barely! Look up their financial report!

>>19173294
Not bad then anon. Took a risk, and paying off long as you get back in on time. Good job.

>>19173377
Impressive. They've doubled their divvy too I see, and here I was thinking NAT would be putting the brakes on us this week - wowsers!

>>19173377
"Muted supply of ships creates a base for a solid future of the tanker industry. The world economies are gradually reopening, and especially Asian economies are showing encouraging improvements. This bodes well for the tanker markets in the second half of 2020 and the full year 2021. At the end of 1Q2020 NAT is in the best position ever."

Wew, lad

>>19173562

but muh contango

>>19173491
>>19173562
Pleasant surprise! NAT might give us a boost, and it is bullish that they think economic reopening is profitable. They acknowledge scrapping and see everything as a good forecast. Let's see how retail thinks of it when market opens. Maybe Cramer brings the CEO on air again and we get another Cramer pump, kek.

>>19173590
It's almost as if we are at the start of a supercycle and contango was already just the icing on the cake.

friendly reminder to set your trailing stops

>>19170306
>Open interest is still at 55 million barrels.

So? This would only be a problem if there was an inbalance caused by speculative buyers. That's unlikely because a) oil funds aren't invested in front month futures anymore, so retail guys cannot easily invest in those anymore b) professional speculators who went long mostly sold by now since there's little upside anymore. If anything, there's been an excess of short speculators who are now driving this rally.

>>19173740
You want to explain how open interest isn't really open interest?

>>19173740
Explain to me what happens when there is a ton of open interest sellers on the market left then and not enough buyers. When someone wants to sell and no one wants to buy....price goes down. Are the sellers magically going to disappear? I know the big boys are gone, but since they are gone...now what? Sellers going to go up in a poof of smoke all of a sudden? What is your thesis here to explain what happens to the barrels needing to be sold and resulting price?

>>19173803
Based toga poster

>>19173803
Oil producers routinely buy back the futures they had previously sold. That's how most futures are traded. Most of the time, they don't plan to actually use futures to deliver oil directly. They trade them as an insurance against price movements.

>>19173967
>Most of the time, they don't plan
Correct.
And the ones who are actually active in front month haven't been planning either.

8 hours from now, some of us will have been right and some of us will be wrong. Most likely BIGLY right or wrong.

>>19173967
Epic. So they're going to buy back the oil they sold at a higher price?

>>19174013
Sure!
Especially when they could make the gigantic mistake of buying the July contract cheaper!

>>19173967
>Oil producers buy back the futures they had previously sold

I thought they were trying to get rid of much crude as possible via future contracts, do you think they're going to buy back 50 million barrels of oil?

>>19173882
Impossible to not like her.

>>19173967
Considering real oil is a lot cheaper, I am sure they rather not buy them back now. Plus, whoever is buying, retail, surely they got to want to sell back since they can't accept delivery...which producers would want here as it is higher than normal price by like a good 10 dollars in the spot market. At best that means price goes down 10 dollars then. And if retail dumps to avoid it....retail dumps, simple as that. My opinion. Not sure what the counter argument would be here.

>>19173983
To be fair, it is really Tuesday we will be right and wrong.

>>19174013
Kek. That is one way to look at it.

>>19174047
forgot screenshot
if you were interested in futures, why the fuck would you buy June when July is cheaper?

>>19174047
I dont know how long that would be viable. The July contract is only .20 cheaper and its still early morning lol. Thankfully the front month will end and there will finally be an end to the madness and we all get to see who was right and who was wrong. Tankies vs Brandies

>>19174072
>Tuesday
ah shit I hadn't checked my calendar. I just assumed SHTF today.

OI needs to drop like hell or we're talking armageddon

>>19174072
holy hell that means i was off by an entire day with >>19172558

Two days before SHTF last month volume was 319,273 compared to 85k this month

volume today is going to be something like 200,000 lower than last month

how much panic do you think there is right now? is the price even relevant ATM? or is there just a shitload of FUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCKFUCK going on somewhere?

>>19174106
>>19174072

Is there anyway to get a more accurate OI reading? It's stuck at 55.6k... That's what Friday's was.

>>19174013
Depends on when they sold them. If they sold them some months ago, it was still a profitable trade.

>>19174062
They aren't buying back 50 million barrels of oil, they're just buying back the futures.

1) Oil producer sells future
2) Waits until expiry
3) Oil producer sells oil to purchaser at current price
4) Oil producer buys back future

That's the way it is usually done and that's why the number of open rn interest isn't worrysome at all unless there is a speculative imbalance which seems unlikely.

>>19174072
>I am sure they rather not buy them back now.

Then they'd have to deliver to Cushing which most can't or don't want to.

>>19174215
only updates once a day AFAIK
we may see an update at some point this morning but i think it updated last night

yall prepared for the big dump

>>19173294
You forgot to account for taxes, singatard. Transacting US stock incurs a tax in the USA except if you have a DTA, which you don't.

this one got amended. wasn't showing before

>>19174293
There is no capital gain tax in Singapore.

Accumulate REFR

>>19174237
>3) Oil producer sells oil to purchaser at current price
Interesting point to just casually gloss over.
Who are the purchasers right now?

>>19174306
>as of march 31st
so they probably sold since then when it peaked

Moderna news going to fuck us, isn't it?

>>19174458
What do you think? People are still consuming vast amounts of oil. Some goes into storage but with the recent cuts and shut-ins, there's no accute shortage of storage capacity right now.

>Oil up 10%
we got too cocky tanker bros

>>19174556
https://fintel.io/sob/us/dht
Yeah man. These funds participate in PnD's all the time.

>>19174574
Truth is, you were fucked from the beginning.

>>19174582
>Some goes into storage
>no acute shortage of storage capacity
based retard

>>19174432
You're mindblowingly retarded. You have to pay taxes IN THE USA for doing business IN THE USA, TO THE USA. Not singameme. Jesus christ singadumb. It's not that complicated. Under normal circumstances, you would pay taxes IN THE USA plus taxes IN YOUR COUNTRY but in this case, you only pay taxes IN THE USA and not IN YOUR COUNTRY. Stop being retarded.

>>19174637
I am not a business. There are no capital gain taxes in Singapore for individuals and I have been trading for the past 7 years.

>On the tanker front, it has been widely reported that more laden ships are at sea, either because of floating–storage contracts or because of the inability to unload due to lack of land-based storage.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/imf-develops-real-time-intel-on-container-tanker-bulker-moves/

>>19174676
I refuse to believe someone as clinically retarded can possibly exist in real life. You must be trolling me. 10/10 if so. iMad.

>>19169571
You tankies are retards
Invest in GTE for a big win oil play

>>19174704
There are no taxes for capital gains on US stocks. I only pay commissions and GST for trading.

What should I buy after I dump NAT?

>>19174696
>The IMF team explained, “In the specific case of oil and related products, the recent export performance is especially strong but is not fully matched by an increase in world imports, in line with reports that crude oil is being stored.”

>>19174626
Your pic isn't an argument against this.

>>19174803
yeah man. it's all sitting in the most expensive way to store oil because there's plenty of room in the cheapest way to store oil

you got me!

>>19174756
RYOSUKE IS ALL IN ON TANKERS MOON CONFIRMED

>>19174582
>People are still consuming vast amounts of oil.
[citation needed]

>DHT in the gutter as expected from ex div
welp time to wait for the daily dump 5% to average down again

>>19174871
To be fair, there is a lag time. The current highs of floating storage were a result of tank tops last month. A lot could've changed within a month.

>>19174875
SUPACU DORIFUTO

>>19174910
yeah the saudi flotilla showed up and they refused to allow them to unload so the EIA could pretend that demand had outpaced supply
that happened within the past month

>>19174871
What do you think does no accute shortage mean? It doesn't mean there's plenty, it means that right now, there's no danger of storage running out in the near future.

>>19174946
of course.
that's why they are letting oil sit in the most expensive place to let oil sit
because there's plenty of room in the cheapest place to let oil sit

i'm agreeing with you, based retard
these people just enjoy wasting money for no reason whatsoever

tankers be all over the place. Interesting day.

>>19174106
Concur.

>>19174194
I have 0 idea what is happening, I really, really don't. I just know economics. And I am applying knowledge. God knows what is going on in people's heads atm.

>>19174215
If there was, I would be happy. But market close is only time it updates afaik.

>>19174237
Buying back the futures, again is like a minimum 10 dollar loss per barrel. That is insane when they already have issue storing.

DHT under $6 dropping like a rock with no signs of stopping

>>19175049
front month now trading 1.5% higher than july
either there's an oil SHORTAGE nobody told us about, or shit is extremely fucked

>>19174946
See
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/oil-s-nightmare-scenario-of-storage-exhaustion-starts-to-fade

>>19174997
You sound like a defiant toddler

>>19174940
Even though the Saudi flotilla showed up it doesn't discount the changes that could've been made within a month. Rig counts have fallen like a rock, and we wouldn't see that come into effect until right about now. Also, OPEC production cuts reduced exports.

It's just my opinion that we should see ~$23/bbl as a result from all the different variables

>>19175070
Based.
I think we've made a lot progress in terms of production cuts and imports, but we should still be in a small contango. Reaching backwardation is pretty retarded. There is obviously some sketchy shit going on.

>>19175099
post your positions, faggot

Holy shit, this NAT dump

RIP to DHT holders

>>19175130
buying more fuckers

>>19175126
whole lot of algos set to inverse crude are going to fuck people up the ass

Is there any reason to not sell DHT?

QE infinity engaged

>>19175143
It'll go up again.
Eventually....

>>19175122
Gotta pass, I don't think I could surpass you guy's losses

NAT blows earnings out of the park and still gets shit on. I don’t get this market anymore.

>>19175148
unless they found a way to print storage, all the QE in the world cannot stop what's coming unless the government buys all the oil and dumps it in fucking yosemite

>>19175171
post your positions or STFU faggot

>>19175183
just like all the other tankers at earnings, havent you been paying attention?

>>19175130
>>19175137
>>19175143
>>19175159
I sold DHT on Friday before the ex-dividend date to avoid the dividend withholding tax and now I'm in a winning position.

>>19175219
post your positions or STFU faggot

>>19175231
what do my positions have to do with tanker share prices going down after earnings?

>>19175229
based swing friend

>>19175229
we heard you the first 100 times dude

>>19175207
Lol

DHT to 5.75 and dropping

>>19175276
post your positions or STFU faggot

>Holding a tanker on divvy date or earnings

>>19175294
Never going to fall for meme stocks again.

DHT probably close to a floor as it has reached the summer 2019 levels

>>19175322
GMI

Guys this hurts make it stop

>>19175313
>>19175322
>The future is now.

What bothers me more is how much money I lost on SCO

>More record profits and earnings
>Stocks tank on enormous rally day

Buy do I wish I could buy more. Don't care, eating the loss, fuck this market I am holding. We are below NAV in like everything, and being paid handsome divvies. There is no argument on God's Green Earth to convince me to sell.

>>19175370
you haven't lost anything until you sell

>>19175375
What if you could sell all of your tankers right now for the feet of any anime girl. You have to take the loss though.

>retards freaking out on DHT ex-divvy day
The fact that we share oxygen infuriates me

>>19175370
>Just dig deeper bro

front month is now 1.35% ABOVE july
can't last

>>19175388
You lose the time waiting for break even that could be better invested in other things though. If I can get within a 2% loss I'd be happy at this point, easy to make up.

>>19175425
I sold before the ex-dividend date to avoid the 30% dividend withholding tax. I would only receive $0.245 cents instead of $0.35 and I am in a winning position now.

>>19175417
Just the feet?

>>19175437
1.47%
>>19175460
filtered. you're annoying as hell

DHT AAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>19175483
1.19%
mostly chronicling for myself
i'm interested to see what happens when front month crosses back below July, where it belongs.

>>19175049
>Buying back the futures, again is like a minimum 10 dollar loss per barrel.

Your assuming they sold the dip. Buying back is routine for them, they don't do it to speculate but to have security to be able to plan ahead of time. Actually delivering the oil to Cushing isn't a real option for them, as I already said.

>>19175437
well im holding until after earnings, probably gonna get fucked in the ass by premium collapse.

for a moment there, front month was more expensive than july AND august
down to 1.1%

bought more DHT at 5.75, I'm guessing there will be another 5 to 10% drop tomorrow where I can average down further

.8% remaining backwardation

Was everything I ever learned about economics a lie? Does it actually all run on unicorn dreams?

>>19175322
also, those positions are after averaging down several times, most recently on Friday.

>>19175681
>serves him right, he listened to biz

>>19175681
we're getting ever closer to finding that out, anon

.8% backwardation

>>19175681
>Does it actually all run on unicorn dreams?
No, there's a ton of shit happening that is nowhere in the data but vaguely suggested at. Economics is shitshow excluding game theory and basic dynamics imho. The assumptions are unrealistic. Business is way fucking messier than I think you're imagining it.

>>19175681
A bunch of us warned you this would happened but you just filtered us, screamed at us to leave and got greedy. Enjoy averaging down for infinity.

.75% backwardation

>>19175417
Fuck. Of any? Can I see her again, or is it a one time thing? I might sell if that was the case regardless honestly.

>>19175603
So they lose 10 dollars a barrel for "security," bravo. But yea I know, storage is the big question ultimately.

DHT is dropping less than STNG, hahaha! Even with the Dividend, hahaha!

>>19175807

strong swan dive

>>19175830
IS THIS IT?

with that dip, front month seems to have finally decoupled from UCO

>>19175807
I WISH I COULD BUY MORE AHHHHHH. THE DEAL, THE DEAL!!!!!

>>19175830
Please be the beginning of the end, I can only take the boomer insults around at me for so long.

>>19175875
What do you mean? What does that mean?

>>19175851
every dive like that for the past several days has been saved by ridiculously low volume buying

https://twitter.com/calvinfroedge/status/1262374059389714432?s=21

how many of you are willing to do the same?

>>19175886
front month has been moving in lockstep with UCO for fucking weeks now. you could basically see 10 minutes into front month future by just looking at UCO
that's changed now
what it means beyond that, i don't know
somebody hit a button somewhere?
whatever happened, it happened at exactly 10am

>>19175901
not ready to make that call yet and he may want to take it back at some point today

kek tankies seem awfully quiet lately

>>19175807
Its dropping because of the dividend. Please, for the love of God, stop being retarded.

I can't today. I'm closing my eyes and checking back this afternoon.

Dream's over lads. Final Warning

The economy is booming and ye stuck here collecting divies from maritime boomers

Cool, Divvies!

>>19175999
They spent the last two weeks preaching about this week going to be contango and tanker moon. They’re going to have a horrible time.

>>19176077
STNG didn't have a dividend!

>>19176077
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/18/oil-news-crude-wti-brnet-prices-today.html

Unironically you guys were smugly saying last week we would finally moon once June contracts expire, now the exact opposite is happening and oil is recovering

>>19176154
>>19176139
How does backwardation make sense in the current market?

>>19176154
n-no one cared about share prices! we’re only here for the dividends!

>>19176154
contracts expire tomorrow, based retard
meanwhile, oil is showing every possible symptom of a weakening market
price going up on almost zero volume and open interest falling

front month is trading above July and equal with August

>>19176110
>hopping off moments before we embark
No need for pansies on this crew.

>>19176213
>moments
Yes you’re moments away from the end. Hold on tight tankertrash!

The more shilling and bashing I see in these threads, the more I buy in to the tanker meme. It’s like when the (((media))) tells me to bake the cake, wax the balls, and suck the cocks. Not going to give in to you faggots.
Cold
Dead
Hands

You know, Cramer made a good point earlier that I think everyone here missed. Oil was briefly brought up and our concern about if suppliers can't sell their oil, what happens then. He basically said if that happens, storage is still too full so more than likely all the open contract producers who can't find buyers will store their oil in tankers.

I want to believe in this, maybe if oil doesn't get fucked over we win anyways. It's unironically a good point, storage is fucked still, where do producers put their oil they can't sell? Tankers!

>>19175933
Well. Who knows then.

>thought i might've been retarded selling at loss on DHT for 6.40

Im am so sorry for those that held.

>>19176276
Paranoid delusionals will quite often repeat the same self destructive mistakes and blame them on outside entities when things don’t work. Effectively doubling down and reinforcing self destructive behavior.

>>19176327
Yeah I should have sold at 6.40 and moved on. We're so low now that I don't see much more room for selloff past the 2019 lows.

ye are in lalaland right now.

Don't get emotional attached to the market. This is the first rule of trading.

It is okay to be wrong and market's actors are 2 steps ahead of retails as always.

https://twitter.com/ErikSTownsend/status/1262108930752331776

Oil can suck my cock and balls. Backwardation is retarded. This is the best explanation I've seen imo. Perhaps we are all incorrect about the June contract but I'd at least like to have a reason based in factual evidence.

Don't say "oil producers buy back the futures they wrote" unless you have the fucking receipt.

>>19176210
Yup I'm the based retard while you bleed cash every day we approach contract expiration, you'll be down tmrw too and the week after that and perhaps even months after if you're a dumb enough fuck to hodl

>>19176411
Just wait until lunch. If it dumps then we get our answer

>>19176327
you're right, man. something that is going down will only ever go down and it will never go back up
likewise, something that is going up will only ever go up and it will never go back down

>>19176421
k, so why are you still here, based retard?

>>19176451
It's amusing watching the gullible ones capitulating and the delusional ones like you falling further into the red, remember anon HOLD ON SEA CAT and COLD DEAD HANDS. Hold straight to 0 for me

>>19176451
>you're right, man. something that is going down will only ever go down
Some people have different trading strategies and prefer not to hold at a loss for possibly 6 months to a year waiting for returns during a clear downtrend. In the case of DHT, it held below $6 for most of the 2019 summer and averaging below $4 for the first quarter of 2019. It has the potential to get a lot worse if the negative sentiment doesn't change.

>>19176524
post your positions or GTFO, faggot

>>19176451
Pic related - It's you

>>19176539
post your positions or GTFO, faggot

>>19176563
Based retard

>>19175748
Fuck you
Just bought some more

>>19176451
>>19176563
>>19176210
>>19175483
>>19175437
the seething and coping from this guy
lmfao

>>19176589
Nah fuck you, I've been reasonable and civil you need to take a break and come back later when you cool off.

backwardation down to .55%

>>19176627
That's fine just remember to post pink wojacks if you lose money

>>19176630
hmmmm........

front month now moving opposite UCO

OI just updated and it only went down by less than 1m

OI sitting at just under 55m barrels

>>19176747
The open interest... went up by 300 contracts? what the fuck?

Well, you certainly need brass balls for this investment. Short-term zoomers/traders unable to hold positions for more than 2 weeks without spazzing out should get the rope. Fundamentally the companies we've bought into are sound, but we're getting dicked hard by speculators. Like I said previously, I remain content to wait until the short term contango hype has died down and see where we are towards the end of the year. If the scrappages occur, rates will have good reason to remain high.

>>19176781
it was at 55.6

>>19175875
friday and at start of day DHT had been moving nearly directly with UCO
now DHT is moving in exact opposite of UCO

Where is the OilAnon when we need him. Get in here you fuck, we're having an emergency meeting.

UCO is up 3% since front month started crabbing
backwardation is at .65%
front month is losing steam quickly

>>19176807
The problem is that depending on the company we're still at above average share price over the last 5Y with plenty of room to drop. A lot of people bought in on the hope of quick returns from another contango that were hyped up here by regulars. You shouldn't be surprised people are trying to get out of the sector now that they see it isn't panning out and have no desire to wait and see if another super cycle is coming in a year.

>>19176877
Based, OilAnon is the Avatar of this scenario. Where the fuck is he?

>>19176877
>we're having an emergency meeting
i don't think there's much new info that's too good to report on. What more can we do other than watch?

>>19176933
panic sell and make tankers moon as a result

just bought more FRO lads, tell me we're gonna make it

>>19170081
How did you avoid capital gains taxes?

>>19176868
that was the only instance of tankers not being inverse from UCO, and everything was mooning like crazy at that point iirc
i think we were assuming tankers were tied to front month because front month was tied to UCO
but it appears tankers have been set to inverse UCO all along

>>19177019
There are no capital gains or dividend taxes for individuals in my country.

>>19176912
True, but the companies are objectively more valuable now in terms of fundamentals than they have been at any point during the past 5 years - if we go down they'll correct. More institutionals will flood in when the debt gets paid down further and the algos designate the companies less risky. A selloff does not phase me in the slightest, nor should it concern anyone who's actually done their own DD and not just FOMO'd in. Admittedly slightly trigged i'm not paid until Friday.

Not for a second I thought this would happen.
I figured that it might not go negative.
That it would even not drop and just rollover swiftly.

BUT SHOOTING UP ABOVE NEXT MONTH?!?!?
WHY?

Who the fuck want to buy oil now and cannot wait 30 days for the next contract?!

Can someone explain to me why is this month more expensive than the next?

>>19177190
not sure, bro
but tankers all started a climb and stopped moving inverse to crude at exactly 10:45am

>>19176328
Thank you (((Brandon))), 25 more shares of STNG

>>19177190
>why didn’t people post in this very general telling me contango wouldn’t happen?!
we did and you ignored us

>>19177190
In hindsight, there was probably a lot riding on ensuring what happened last month didn't ever happen again. It'll be some powers-that-be lever-pulling bullshit to ensure people don't lose faith in the US economy.

>>19177240
Hope to read it in the news.

At least I want to know how I got fucked!

>>19177190
>Can someone explain to me why is this month more expensive than the next?
I wonder

>>19177190
Someone way bigger say than us and maybe most institutions. US Shale is strategic and can't suffer through this, could also be COF lashing out. It doesn't matter, the cost is insane. if the price should be $25, someone is pushing up a $7 premium for it. Some is also paying to put it or consume it somewhere.

line 2

>>19177265
Still not explaining even after it happend.

Why would I believe someone that can't get excuses to why he was right after thing went his way?

>>19177299
it still hasn't gone anywhere. somebody is also GOING TO pay to put it somewhere
and that's when prices go negative

>>19177313
I posted many paragraphs with sources and arguments. You disregarded them with insults and ad hominem. You no longer deserve the effort after how I was treated, I’m just here to enjoy the vindication and salt.

>>19176747
W-what the fuck. 24k volume, and only lost a few hundred open interest? HOW FUCKED IS OIL?! Seriously, is this unprecedented? Has there ever been anywhere close to this much open interest at expiration if this continues to tomorrow for any commodity? What happens?

>>19177038
...but why?

Excited for when front month break past August. This will be entertaining.

>>19177376
Plz explain the backwardation

>>19177377
not sure. but here's the past 3 months for comparison

>>19177416
he doesn't know shit
his "paragraphs with sources and arguments" was him posting the first google result after searching some shit like "why tankers suck"

>>19177376
HURRR DURRR TANKER WILL GO BANKRUPT
BECAUSE THE CONTANGO IS GONE AND OIL JUST FLIES THROUGH THE SKY FROM THE WELLS TO THE REFINERIES!

Your arguments are still retarded today.
It's like telling people magnets work because of magic.

front month is literally following the dow at this point just at insanely low volume
somebody's algo is going to get them fucked beyond belief

to all anons, as a meme war operations veteran. pay attention to filenames. post counts, and post history. If there are paid shills, they're much more sophisticated than the last week's shills who seemed vaguely more sophisticated than the shills the week before. There groups that coordinate and pull info and macros from a shared source. You and I are likely in the fog of informational warfare, and I have no clue why we would be getting fucked with. All i know is that we're in a confirmed happening if my stomach is sending me the right signals. Remember that there are other ways to shill than straight FUD. concern trolling is a great switch up. I have a strong feeling the shills are getting paid more and are blending a lot better. Keep your guards up.

>>19177462
keep seething, if you’re this bad already I can’t imagine what tomorrow will be like

I think some people who forgot they left their algo running are going to lose their fucking minds

>>19177494
He doesn't even have any positions in it. Whichever way it goes has nothing to do with anything he's saying.

>>19177519
>meme war operations veteran
that explains a lot

>>19177536
>>19177599
nice to see you on a blue board this time, faggot. Not fucking selling.

i don't know how i never checked this

this is going to be one motherfucking huge "NO WAY WERE THEY THIS STUPID" from me, bro

One last pump before the dump?

>>19177494
Never said that but it’s not surprising you have no idea what I said last week because you were too busy filtering everyone in your safespace.

>>19176995
I'm holding for as long as it takes.
Here's hoping anon

>Never said that but it’s not surprising you have no idea what I said last week because you were too busy filtering everyone in your safespace.
Notice in the posts, and in the unorganized /tsg/ from yesterday that there is an emphasis on filtering and "safespaces". It reads like reddit to me. I could be wrong, but if it's shilling it's a level above the weeks prior. Shit's getting more real.

>>19175886
>Please be the beginning of the end, I can only take the boomer insults around at me for so long.

Kek, please don't say you boldly told them it would go negative again, you've made a fool of yourself

>>19174098
>we all get to see who was right and who was wrong. Tankies vs Brandies

It's not like you people would ever admit to having been wrong, if it doesn't go negative it must be because the FED/Trump/Goldman Sachs/the Jews don't want tankies to win

>>19177637
I didn't filter no one.

>>19177434
Well hello repeat low volume.

>>19177519
Honestly, I believe it. I am just SO confused as to why institutions don't just buy yet. Are we really going to wait for futures rollover and FRO earnings? Really? But I know, this isn't genuine trolling in the slightest. Too much, too "pre-made."

>>19177557
O-oh....oh no. This is possible. Is the whole world wtf'ing based off one idiot who took a vacation at the wrong time?

the last 5 trading days......

>>19177694
>It reads like reddit to me
I WONDER WHY

What caused all of these tankers to be valuable around the mid to late 00's?

(Not saying whatever caused it will happen again, just curious)

>>19177828
scale was off

THIS is the last 5 trading days, including today

it's too perfect

are oil prices disconnected from the reality of oil because... they're LITERALLY disconnected from the reality of oil?

>>19177519
It's important to not neglect bear arguments. Some anons just think this shit isnt worth the investment risk given market conditions. Others appear to be paid shills.

>>19177628
>>19177828
>>19177892
Oh no oh no oh no. Is this....real? Great investigative work, holy shit wtf from me though. So there is literally an asshole out there just...tracking the Dow futures and matching it on oil? Does this mean....there is LITERALLY no connection to actual price right now? How will this play out? Is this guy just going to pull it all the way to expiration because he forgot, keeping oil up, pissing everyone off, and going broke and going to jail for it? Wtf is happening?

>>19177845
Feet pics for reddit.

>>19177870
A super contango. Due to toning down war which drove oil prices down. One not even as bad as this one we went (are going still maybe) through. In other words, the market doesn't understand value right now.

When it goes mainstream, it usually means the top is in. Oil reversal coming soon.

>>19177901
This is correct. i can't really filter anyway, there are too many posts that get filtered that way. I'm trying to sound off an alarm to anyone that isn't used to shilling. This is potentially getting to the higher levels of shilling and it's not obvious to the uninitiated at all. We need to be more careful with information we take from here. It's harder to tell true posts from shill posts. I'm only sharing my own experience and details i've picked up over the years. Be careful anons, Tankerchads and landlubbers alike.

>Oil @ $33/bbl

Congrats oil bulls, you've won.

You can pay for 1 month of storage and pay 0.20c less by buying July contracts. In what world does it make sense to buy June contracts?

>>19178145
imagine literally cheering that you are right because some retard forgot to turn off his algorithm
this has nothing whatsoever to do with the reality of oil OR the perception of it
>>19177892

>>19177892
the real question may be at what time of day this/these algorithm(s) is/are set to sell

backwardation now at .94%

front month may now be completely severed from the rest of oil futures as far as trends are concerned

>>19177628
I'm losing my shit right now.
>Super low volume
>Tracking the DOW
It's actually just one person with an algo

front month has continued to climb in lockstep with the DOW as UCO has tapered off and even begun to drop

is UCO the only thing being participated in by humans?

Even the biggest oil tanker bulls are getting slaughtered

So what the fuck do we do here tankerchads? Are we selling, holding, buying more?

>>19178372
These companies aren't going bankrupt.
I refuse to sell this shit while the idiots that bought JCP are making money.
That's just ridiculous.

But wtf happens if it is some asshole with an algo?! Is his broker going to fucking call him yet to confirm this is intended?! What if they can't reach him. What if he fucking died and his algo is running and no one is going to know and assume contracts are bought until in June when delivery is being scheduled and they realize their buyer is a dead guy who left his computer on? Wtf is going to happen!? Is the whole world going to turn upside down because one asshole either died, ended up in the hospital, or is just an asshole who went on vacation and is going to come back a billion dollars in debt and handcuffs for fraud?!

>>19178372
>holding, buying more
the two for me. I'll be pretty patient from here on out, i think. I'll sell some STNG if there's an algo using it as inverse crude and STNG spikes up.

>>19178372
we're watching the show
this shit is in lockstep with the DOW
midnight last night until now, 15 minute frequency

>>19178420
the real question is:
What will happen for the rest of the day / tomorrow? Will the expiry hold enough pressure that this shit will bust or not?

>>19178420
lol just imagine if the guy died of corona and the covid-19 deathcount has to be updated to include the entire worldwide oil industry

>>19176411
>bogged market hypothesis where fundamentals literally don’t matter
I was thinking about this last night. If that’s the case, stonks only go up and even the most solid fundamental play means squat when real market problems get covered up by accounting gimmicks

>>19178491
Doesn't matter if it is an asshole who forgot his algo. It will buy EVERYTHING as long as the Dow goes up. If this isn't a tactical move to sell later and is an accident, this asshole might of legitimately caused worldwide chaos when however many dozens of millions of barrels of oil he is gonna get stuck with cannot be delivered. Who knows now.

>>19178494
THAT CHART. SOMEONE TWEET THIS TO CALVIN, PLEASE!

But kek. Would be poetic if it was corona that did him in. But seriously, if this is a clown world "guy died, algo bought 50 million barrels, we only find out mid-June when delivery is happening" scenario, we might see a collapse like never before even if oil get magically saved by this asshole. I hope he sells now or gets called by his broker, this is topsy turvy world ending shit right here. The power that one asshole could wield through sheer stupidity or lack of foresight is enormous.

looks like trading is halted on OSG - on Fidelity at least

wtf are you retards talking about

>>19177628
>b-but oil recover doe?!?
Tomorrow is going to be historic. I'm genuinely curious and excited. Even it doesn't absolutely explode that will be interesting as well, though in a different way.

Just fucking admit it, tankerplay was a mistake all along.

The people that still hold them are bitter idiots, who could have been in the green if they dropped the bags earlier and bought TSLA or some other faggy stuff.

>>19178931
I had TSLA too.
Made good money on the Musk tweet.
But the factory move drama, made me sell it.

>>19169571
A bit of good news is that a high volume dump on DHT only resulted in a 3% drop.
>>19178843
Any way that oil moves will be extremely interesting. If oil continues to go up,or crab around 30, it'll be hard to believe that US shale wont start opening back up wells as fast as they closed them, and that OPEC will subsidize those actions by keeping their production low. If Oil goes down, well, someone will have a lot of explaining to do.

>>19178931
most of my dough was in baba.

I will admit. No matter what happens in the market, I will probably not be able to make up the money I lost. Thank you jews. You finally made me think Hitler was right. But just for the sake of pride, I'm still not selling. And this time I was prudent enough to get calls expiring from June-August so good locking zogging that up.

Tldr; shut up Brandon, I'm not selling you dirty whore jew

>>19179091
Forgot to post with a pic showing my emotions.

i wonder if whoever it is knows how many people are waiting for him to check his email

>>19179091
if the jews control the market, why not bet on their schemes as opposed to against

>>19178630
>THAT CHART. SOMEONE TWEET THIS TO CALVIN, PLEASE!
i did about 25 minutes ago

and it looks like the coupling may have immediately broken

should know more certainly in about 10 minutes, but this is the most major divergence (the only divergence?) i've seen since i started looking at this. it may have been momentary

DOW went up. crude spiked down

ITS HAPPENING!!!
OIL IS DROPPING

>>19179419
very small drop so far. need something way bigger to get excited about. if this thing drops 3-4% while the DOW crabs or rises, we can start breathing heavy

>>19179419
If it doesnt go negative today the tanker chads are wrong and actually tanker cucks

Nuevo Thread
>>19179470

>>19179470

>>19179470

https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1262409969636225032

>OPEC MEMBERS CUT CRUDE OIL EXPORTS BY 4.85 MILLION BPD IN FIRST 14 DAYS OF MAY


Still missing another 4 million barrels but keep up the great work OPEC+!

uco gains to wti futures gains is converging to 1.8. Will oil drop more lads?

>>19179054
>A bit of good news is that a high volume dump on DHT only resulted in a 3% drop.

?? i'm showing DHT as -9% today