/biz/ - Business & Finance

If I had to guess,
Monday we dump, Tuesday we chad
Mid term (q2 - 3) we do well as people begin to realize the entire value of the tanker sector right now isn't directly tied to the contango situation.

Futures bigly green, literally anything that isn’t VIX, inverse etfs or puts will pop at least 1% at open.

what happened to the general thread?

>>19165478
My friend worked on an oil tanker. When his contract was up, they told him not to apply for another one and he said they're were firing everyone that was scheduled to go out. He knows a couple people that were literally sitting at the airport ready to head out, and they got calls telling them to not bother showing up.

>>19165729
Did you find out why they were firing everyone?

>>19165779
My friend and I just assumed it was because oil prices were shit, but no my friend didn't ask why.

>>19165729
Yeah we are going to need some more than that if you want us to believe you. A lot of evidence pointing the other way

>>19165828
I don't invest in oil. I don't even know what company my friend worked for. I don't give a shit what happens to the oil industry or what it looks like is going to happen.

>>19165861
can you disclose which company, country, or ship?

>>19166232
Dunno which company he worked for or what ship he was on. It's in the USA though, somewhere around New Orleans because that's where he flies before going out to wherever the fuck the ship is.

I hold NAT....how fuck am i, anons?

>>19166271
Thanks, maybe someone can work with that info. I don't trade oil, and especially not tankers, but I follow money. A lot has gone in.

>>19165828
We don't know the position or role. Could be a guy that manages offloading. Maybe there's no need because they won't be offloading any time soon.

>>19166331
Rising tides... Maybe you can find a good point to diversify

>>19166331
Same. Thinking about selling out tomorrow at their earnings post and using that money to buy into a better company.

>>19165478
Their most recent high valuations were because of huge supply and no demand. Following oil production cuts worldwide and increased demand you’ll see share prices crab and decline further. It’s a non growth sector where much of the profits are lost on dividends for boomers than put back into the value of the company.

>>19166331
>>19166354
NAT is the worst company in the sector. I think Jim Cramer shilled it as a joke.

>>19166409
>Following oil production cuts worldwide and increased demand you’ll see share prices crab and decline further
>he trusts the media and governments with anything
>he trusts Chinese data on anything after...
>>WHO paid off to cover for china's ass
>>"reopening" but no emissions on radars
>>speculative evidence from the chem plant explosion with no casualties
>>reports of second shutdown possible
>he doesn't listen to J. Powell with regard to slow recovery to demand and economy
>he didn't examine the major discrepancies between data reported by a corp and regulatory agency
I'm not saying that anything will happen or that anything will be reported, but I'm definitely calling you an idiot for accepting the idea that the cuts are sufficient and that demand is returning before the end of, minimally, Q3.

>>19166517
Well, well a bit hostile aren’t you? Increased demand doesn’t mean peak demand but it’s obviously enough to drive increased prices in oil. OP merely asked a question so I answered him, truthfully. If you want hinge your hopes of a repeat moon mission for tankers on another contango you’re going to be very disappointed. Oil prices are readily available so I don’t know what your point is.

>>19166409
I know you haven't been following this at all but here's a few things: oil demand is still low, oil production is still outpacing storage, charter rates are still high as fuck relative to rates the last few years. Tankers will continue to bring in high revenues throughout this oversupply, and just because Cushing, OK tanks dropped in supply a little doesn't change a the idling tankers off the coast of the US, nor does it get rid of the Saudi Armada with the minimum 36 million barrels worth of oil parked off shore.

This oversupply will last a long time. Oil majors have no reason to rally, oil has no reason to rally, and tankers will be generating relatively large revenues during this oversupply.

>>19166676
my bad, it's more than 50 million barrels

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/saudi-oil-rush-threatens-to-disrupt-stabilizing-u-s-oil-market

>>19166676
>I know more than the market here look at my april 20th chart and please ignore crude prices.
ok

>>19166626
>If you want hinge your hopes of a repeat moon mission for tankers on another contango
I'm not. I've stated nothing regarding price action. In the week it can do anything. I have an odd feeling FRO will be a P&D somehow and that the oil issue will be "swept under the rug." I have no guidance and there really shouldn't be any.

>OP merely asked a question so I answered him, truthfully
Don't try claiming some kind of high ground.
>OP: Opinions on this week for tankers.
>1st response: Following oil production cuts worldwide and increased demand you’ll see share prices crab and decline further. It’s a non growth sector
It was clearly implied that this was intended for this week's price action. And It's clear that the information that is presented in media is faulty. Again, I have no answer to price action
>Oil prices are readily available so I don’t know what your point is.
>markets are efficient & front month is reflecting something other than what retail is willing to speculate
I'm not sure what the long term ramifications will be other than an insane cost to subsidize US oil producers and/or long term storage costs + a net decrease in US oil production without crippling suppliers from other countries. 2nd and 3rd order effects are too far away to determine, but the current glut, supply, and demand data clearly points to hurt for any leveraged US oil producer, again, at least for likely, all of 2020.

>>19166331
NAT is the only one I can invest in from my broker as well and they seem the shittiest of the bunch.

>>19166734
>it's a shill.
mother fucker. how much does Goldman Sachs pay? Just get off my boards already. This paid for shit is NOT COMFY and NOT BASED.

>>19166768
>you’re an idiot!
>but i have no guidance on this weeks price action
Then why comment at all? You’re obviously befuddled by the current market and share price movements by tankers. Market sentiment about tankers is clear in the short term and with no repeat contango to reverse that sentiment (as indicated by crude prices) the price action for this week is obviously looking negative— barring acts of God.

>>19166826
>enters a thread asking about tankers boom or bust for the week
>sees an opinion he doesn’t like
>How dare you give an opinion that’s not comfy?!?? Shill!!!
Sheesh, go home to reddit if you can’t hold an intelligent conversation without acting like a child.

>>19166847
>>19166894
>it's been a whole fucking month of this shit
just for fuck sake. No one with a portfolio big enough has more than like... a tenth of their account in fucking tankers. I'd bet you a whole shekel. That's worth ten posts. Save us from ten of your annoying and baseless non-arguments. fuck.
>my argument is valid!!!!!!
>muh markets are efficient
>price discovery is an efficient process, and there is no speculation risk in markets
>huuuuuuuuurrrrrrr
I've refuted a central assumption of your argument and stated that it's literally in the air because powers much bigger than us little basement autists are going to determine how things swing. You can't do anything to fix the supply, demand, and glut situation without actively destroying something. You have no arguments to refute evidence that appears contrary to >>19166676
You shills are such cocksuckers. Leave us damn tendie retards alone. I know you're just going to keep going in this thread with cocksucker bullshittery or some other BS id will show up to do it for you because you're fucking paid for it. It's in every fucking tanker thread. Don't pose like you're the beacon of light and intelligent replies. We've watched this for weeks. weeeeeeks. every single time you guys meet an argument, you only further the conviction of tankies or convince the contrarians that tankies have a good argument. Just tell your manager already and stop shitting up the threads.

>>19166989
Brother, leave him...I've already been liquidated by these jews since they started crashing the prices a few weeks ago. I'm still holding on, and will forever use this as a learning example of the power of Jewish market manipulation. Just let them talk in the thread, not like they're going anywhere. These guys must get off at laughing at us retail baggies. Either way, this week is our last chance at a moon shot. And even if we do get one, I still won't recuperate the money I lost... just let them laugh while we wait for what comes next

>>19166989
Get a grip man, you aren’t OP you don’t even need to be in this thread if it bothers you so much. Just close the tab and go do something else. Reread what you just posted. All I did was point out the unlikely boom of tankers because of rising oil prices and increasing unlikelyhood of contango and you completely lost it. I wasn’t even addressing you initially.

>>19167132
Rising price of oil has no effect on the existing supply or demand. The fact the oil is at $30 should worry you. What factors are causing it to be so high despite the fact nearly nothing has changed since a month ago. Demand is still low (not AS low but still much below normal demand) and supply from last round is still sitting around, the cuts are barely anything and will clog storage again.

>>19166734
couldn't find a more recent graph. and the price of oil doesn't change the oversupply in the market.

>I know more than the market
That is called value investing, my gentle tard. I see no reason the sector should be valued at less than half of its price to book ratio, especially when it's raking in record profits.

>>19167205
Price reflects the modest production cuts and increased demand. I’m not sure how to spell this out to you but because of the incredibly expensive nature of floating storage the crude first used during refining is the crude being paid to sit on the water. Which means the tanker profitability decreases rapidly with any production cut and demand increase. That’s my view on the situation and I could be entirely wrong but we’ll know soon enough. I hope everything works out for you though, I certainly don’t want to see anons lose money.

I'm doing this for my brothers so they can see the tankie argument and potential reasons why tickers like DHT and FRO have seen huge institutional buys and calls.

>>19167091
>Brother, leave him...
>These guys must get off at laughing at us retail baggies
I do it for anyone that hasn't seen a /tsg/. Any anon that's not a tourist will smell it from the series. Maybe it could have been a real person that was being a little faggot. AMD sure as hell doesn't look like a moonshot from $3 USD. Stay frosty, and like clockwork...

>>19167132
>>19167276
so you're a premium shill or a super faggot. If shill, whoever is hiring must have raised their bounties or got a lucky deal. These posts hurt you. >>19166731 >>19166847. clean up your act.
>also filename
how strange...

>All I did was point out the unlikely boom of tankers because of rising oil prices and increasing unlikelyhood of contango and you completely lost it. I wasn’t even addressing you initially.
Your initial post has nothing to do with contango. Your initial post clearly states, I quote, again:
>Following oil production cuts worldwide and increased demand you’ll see share prices crab and decline further
And I only pointed out that there is a lot of info that should make you doubt the numbers, and that the numbers themselves are contradictory. Additionally, broader market issues will continue to retard demand long term.
OP asked about this week, see >>19166768
You "clarified" that you were discussing contango on contract expiry, I assume? Which i called bullshit because your initial post's argument should really only be considered valid for longer short term speculation far outside of this week. This week and that period is very murky. This fogginess is clear from the shuffling of holdings for ETFs, conflicting data, and from the words and actions of many industry leaders. If you're not shilling, you're a dishonest faggot. I'm going to gravitate to premium shill. Forgive me if I'm wrong.

>>19167276
>profitability decreases rapidly
Of course, but it will still be tankers most profitable quarter EVER. just a year ago, these tanker companies were struggling, oil was stable and the economy was good. This year, oil dumped and the economy is terrible, which means they make millions from just holding oil. And they will continue to hold oil for at least the next quarter. Being a tanker has never been more profitable and this has helped clear up balance sheets for them. They will be stronger than ever once oil stabilizes.

>>19166734
>i know more than the market

Said everybody in every market in history ever... the whole idea of a market is based upon this

>>19167526
Exactly. I think the entire sell off was an over reaction even if the contango situation is entirely over.

>High rates locked in for Q2, maybe Q3
>STNG has Clean market cornered with competitors using clean tankers to store dirty oil during contango, licensing to change back to clean incredibly hard
>IMO2030 on horizon, nobody wants to make new tanker supply due to unknown regulations required
>No creditors left after brutal bear market
>Shipyards to create tankers bankrupted
>25% VLCCs to be scrapped next year to due IMO2020, old age of tankers
>If rates ever reach too low they'll scrap the tankers and destroy supply
>Oil markets eventually recovering, tankers demand for transport
>COSCO sanctions on table as trade war rhetoric ramps up; China backing out of agreed upon terms (Jacked up prices last year)
>Oil demand in short term uncertain, conflicting sources, fragile situation benefitting tankers
>Debts have been massively payed down in front of a debt deflationary recession
>Get payed in divvies to wait

Yea. I'm sitting comfy long tanker.

Rates have dropped precipitously but current floor on them is still high compared to 2019. You guys need to chill the fuck out though you should welcome and rationally discuss bear arguments or you look deluded. Brandon doesn't post on weekends he has weekends off.

>>19166331
Not that fucked. Just not too much upside comparatively.

>>19166894
The general has actual paid shills. Proven newfags who also let it slip out about multiple people conspiring with them, all with talking points kek. People are....a little peeved, don't take it personal.

>>19165478
I am betting boom on...Wednesday. FRO earnings are the most anticipated by hedgies. If before, it is possible. But in general I don't care, they are a value play at this point. Stocks will at least go to NAV even among the most bearish you can be...in which case is a profit on like all tankers but NAT. Dividends cover losses and are guaranteed, rates secured, if I wanted to gamble on stocks going up or down I have plenty of high volume options. I am betting tankers as companies at this point. Their worth inherently is more than right now, rapidly deleveraging, dividends high, buybacks possible, and potential to go up due to actually being a good business. Plus decent rates are secured due to scrap dates which ensures low tanker supply thus increasing demand and rates while lowering cost. In this volatile market, they are good companies to invest in regardless of price speculation. You know....as actual smart investors not gambling. The fact we can also gamble it going sky high is a huge bonus. And I think FRO is the liftoff signal. Anything before is a bonus.

Just wanted to give the meme line breakdown on the tanker index charts.
>15min, 30min, and 1hr charts all in TTM squeeze.
>4hr chart about to enter squeeze.
>MACD meme lines about to cross buy signal on the 4hr.
>2 days straight of doji candles on 1hr chart.
>bull star (reversal) on daily chart depending on Monday's close.

Definitely a good set up for a YUGE move.

>defending their positions instead of using this once in a lifetime opportunity to ride oil up and down and possibly retire

>>19168918
tankerchadindex is always appreciated anon.

>>19167749
Very based.

>>19168918
Interesting! Interesting....if only I could read these fucking charts half as well as a lot of those here. I can see the gist sort of though.

Are we commandeering this vessel to be our general or shall I make one?

>>19169452
I think we should make one...because NAT earnings incoming. We actually got something to accommodate and update. So the OP is kind of important this time.

alright, /tsg/ up and running here:
>>19169571
>>19169571
>>19169571

Just like the last year during the trade war markets have been running on hope. Stocks and oil are rallying on hopes the economy is coming back, except once we open and there’s no V shaped recovery reality will set in and shit will hit the fan. Gold will explode, the curve will widen, inflation will excelerate while the fed raises interest rates to fight it the whole entire economic system will completely collapse. We are 25 trillion in debt and cannot even handle a 50 basis point rise in interest rates. J faggot has said he will not entertain raising interest rates unless he sees a substantial rise in inflation. Will prepare for the calamity boys it’s coming. Don’t forget food water bullets guns silver and gold. I wish I had enough money to move to Idaho or Montana.