/biz/ - Business & Finance

Listen to your Captain, anons:

STOP REPLYING TO BRANDON

That is all.

tankiethreads are really comfy, I suspect they'll get retarded when stock rallies a bit.

Also tankerbros are really respected in all of /biz/.

FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS

>>18982489
He's an idiot. It's not a bad idea to have both a bullish *and* bearish thesis for how this will play out though. We anons can profit either way.

>>18982489
Let him walk the plank captain. Brandon belongs in Davy Jones locker

>Short answer is no their only evidence for storage hitting causing immediate violent cuts is a neural network. If you know how neural networks work then you know that it can't predict something like this at least not with useful inputs to draw patterns from to map onto this scenario. None such inputs exist, therefore it guess is as good as yours or mine. You would have similar possibly better luck asking some econ nerds to geek out over this as a thought experiment as you would using a neural network built to predict the generalized oil markets ebbs and flows in production vs demand. Their total confidence in this is unwarranted considering what they have to prove their proposition.
But then these are business guys, they probably have no fucking clue how neural networks work so just assumed well the computer has something here right?
To be fair neural networks can notice patterns humans won't and even can't notice but given the nature of this event being outside the scope of this network its too out of its data set to predict accurately without a) extra assumptions added for this specific scenario(in which case prediction is as good as the assumptions) b) data of relevance and use being added(none exists) for the system to draw patterns from and to check its hypothesis against.

>>18982527
>Also tankerbros are really respected in all of /biz/.

>>18982422
Thread theme

https://youtu.be/lLV5GVWnVqs

>>18982559
It's tree since this is the only part of biz whose opinions matter

>>18982489
How to know you are in a cult? You are not allowed to speak to those not in the cult. The captain has spoken. Lmao he calls himself the captain (of a sinking tanker who happily goes down with the ship)


>>18982371
>If you are so sure we are all wrong why dont you short tanker stock then. Explain that.

If you can understand the risk profile of going short vs long you wouldn't ask that. Besides it's silly to short penny stocks

>>18982422
looks comfy

>>18982532
FROM MY WET, SLITHERY, TENTACLES

>>18982534
Exactly anon, it's a moving target.

>>18982539
>>18982623
Based thread theme

>>18982685
Just some humble pirateposting in line with the general's established culture by now. If you genuinely believe engaging with Brandon heightens the quality of the discourse here, I'd encourage you to take a look at the trainwreck that was the last thread before doing so.

>>18982723
Hella comfy

>>18982685
>If you can understand the risk profile of going short vs long you wouldn't ask that.

Oh spare me the bullshit, just put a stop loss and you're good.
100 replies busting our balls last thread to convince us you're 100% in the right, and now you pull some bullshit when people ask you to prove how sure you are.

Fuck off this is pathetic.

The Captain's just noticed he's broken his own rule, and is opting to walk the plank for tonight. Stay comfy kind anons - what news tomorrow may bring.

Let's go over what we learned in the last thread

1. Contango almost gone
2. Daily rates crashing to all time lows
3. Dumb money has already left and wont be back
4. Tanklets dont understand dividends
5. Tanklets dont understand that stocks value are based on future earnings
6. Brandon told them much of this and they didn't listen and already lost money; now mad at all Brandons
7.No catalyst for rising stock price
8. 2nd qtr earnings good
9. 3rd qtr and beyond losses as far as you can see
10. Excess ships will be scrapped setting stage for a week recovery in 2027

>>18982771
That's how you learn. From the very beginning I challenged you to come up with your rationales and you all failed. But scouting around on my own I came to think yes the stocks are cheap but they are going much cheaper. Newbs might think they can bleed over years in a bad stock pick. Well you have your chance. Can you suffer for three years and lose 80% and still hodl

>>18982858
What we learned last thread:
1) Brandon is a faggot
2)Brandon is a paid shill (Pic related)

>>18982999
Short that shit then fag. Whats stopping you?

>>18982489
Brandon is a CHINK! Listen to anon......................

>>18983009
Why are you angry that I am posting oc instead of your pedo pictures .

Everyone will admit I had 92 out the best 100 posts last thread. Maybe you are incapable of learn ability. Anywho how do you feel about tanker rates at all time lows is that bullish?

Brandon is a chink!

>>18983088
Options and shorting and penny stocks are for losers everyone knows that except newbs

>>18983009

baited into exposing himself LOL

the fuck is this:??????

Maybe you are incapable of learn ability.

>>18983141
Stop posting until you understand how dividends work

>>18983178
chinks:

Your gonna pay severely!

Not one tanklet can refute any of the ten points of tankerdom

Can you believe that Brandon actually exposed himself as a shill using 2 PCs to post 100 times in a single thread over six hours?

>>18983233
How does it feel to be dumber than the dumb?

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/finance/dumb-money-loved-tanker-stocks-until-it-didnt-and-that-fuelled-this-weeks-shares-massacre/2-1-805269

>>18983233
I wonder why is that guy so obsessed into making us sell our shares.


Was he raped as a child by a VLCC captain or something?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3569275-crude-products-tanker-rates-tumble-on-all-major-routes

Lower rates are bullish right tanklets?

>>18983251
Explain this
>>18983009
and I'll address your points one last time

>>18982539
>Divvy Jones locker

>>18983267
I have super autism and its impossible for me to lie. I have told yall I'm here looking to invest but yall dont understand anything you just shill like retards at retards first stock market playdate. So i learn about tankers on my own. Not looking good but yall brag about holding the bag. And yall is rude and mean too. But I'm learning so thank you

>/brandon/posting was funny for like 10 minutes. now it's not.

We understand that there is a huge amount of risk investing in tankers, and we will probably lose it blah blah. It's our money anyways and we can burn if we want. Can you please stop harassing our thread now? Please no more replies to Brandon. It's getting stupid.

>>18983289
Dumb people like you bought tankers too late. Bought in panic (fomo as you kids would say)then sold in panic as tanker rates collapsed. Some dumb holdouts like you are waiting for lower prices that the next years will bring

>>18982858
Anons, please correct me where I'm wrong. From what I've gathered...
>1. Contango almost gone
this is irrelevant. The changes in crude price appear to wholly be speculation, and they will be shocked when we approach (or hit) global capacity. When there is no place left to take oil, tankers will be able to take huge premiums as the supply of storage will be too small in all other places.
>2. Daily rates crashing to all time lows
this should refer back to 1, as the rates are wholly speculative.
>3. Dumb money has already left and wont be back
This is correct, but whether it will be back or not is a different question
>4. Tanklets dont understand dividends
not an argument
>5. Tanklets dont understand that stocks value are based on future earnings
refer to one
>6. Brandon told them much of this and they didn't listen and already lost money; now mad at all Brandons
not an argument
>7.No catalyst for rising stock price
future earnings, refer to one.
>8. 2nd qtr earnings good
correct
>9. 3rd qtr and beyond losses as far as you can see
contracts are longer term, whether or not the tankers are able to charge absurd premiums (which they likely will), they are likely to post good earnings for at least the whole of 2020.
>10. Excess ships will be scrapped setting stage for a week recovery in 2027
neat

>>18983352
Wow you know you will lose $$$ but just want some excitement with frens (as you kids say).

Sorry I cant leave until you understand how dividends work

>>18983271
Do you even read what you're linking dude?

>Stay prepared for volatility
As long as the coronavirus pandemic continues to keep major industrial businesses below full capacity, the supply-and-demand picture for energy will remain distorted from what investors are used to seeing. That will inevitably create price volatility that could help opportunistic speculators use tanker ships to earn profits, and tanker companies might see further gains that make them stand out among oil stocks.

>Eventually, though, things will return to normal. That doesn’t mean tanker stocks won’t enjoy the one-time windfalls they get from making their vessels available right now. However, shareholders shouldn’t expect the added profits to last forever — and it’s entirely possible that the stocks will return to their pre-April levels once all is said and done.

Everyone in here says dont hold for long.

>>18983414
Dude, rates drive revenues, aside from this one time clusterfuck, demand for ships will be way down for years

>>18983531
Why are tanker rates and tanker stocks crashing ?

>>18983591
The only way demand for ships drops is if demand for oil drops. And if demand for oil drops down for several years, that means shit is so fucked that losing money on tanker companies will be the least of your worries.

In fact if that shit happens tankers will be a pretty good recession proof asset to hold, cause it will not go to zero ever, especially if you pick a nice company with no debt.

>>18982422
I'm out. Here are my thoughts, earnestly godspeed to tanker captains not even mad if you make it

>No one is investing long in tanker stocks, everyone knows that everyone else is just in it for the quick pump, so you're competing with a bunch of yourselves, and the least greedy wins
>the idea of investing in oil is on a downtrend (I'm not going to get into an eco debate - it's just the facts)
>if you didn't get in this before normies started hearing about tanker stock investing like me then you were way way way way too late. Those that knew this was going to be a cash cow months ago deserve their gains.
>NAT was a clusterfuck and rose and died on complete retards that did no research on the various tankers and had no idea what they were doing
>rates are high but starting to fall, unless something crazy happens, I can't imagine another pump
>the more quarantined life was, the more these had reason to pump, we are now de-escalating quarantine

>>18982554
well then that means us bottom feeders have an edge in this market. just like crypto is too far outside the scope of historical data to quantify and make a prediction.

these are the kinds of lopsided bets I come here for.

>>18983639
Noone knows dude. You've got AMC that is declaring bankrupsy stock going up for 3 days, CCL that wont sail until July at least going up, V stock having good earnings going down and 50bln+ amount of repo operations a day.

Noone fucking knows, this is uncharted fucking teritorry, but anons here believe tankers are a good bet, they pay divies, most of them have little debt and the world cant turn without them.

Can you stop being such a huge fucking autist and just watch some anime.

Just leave the thread.

>>18983706
No one thinks oil demand is coming back in two years but that doesn't mean we want to lose 50% on tanker stocks holding the bag

>>18983922
Tankers are useless if oil demand goes down but right now you have a one time short event to profit then that disappears for another 10 years

>>18983922
Lots of what you said is sooooo true!

But you are a FAGGOT because you watch anime.........

>>18983352
>We understand that there is a huge amount of risk investing in tankers
I disagree. Relative to the whole of the market, tankers appear to be one of the few places that is relatively safe.
>Energy: Fucked
>Consumer discretionary: Fucked
>Industrials: Fucked
>Telecom/Media: Nearly fucked (Internet ok, too much drag across corps)
>Financials: Nearly fucked (except maybe payments)
>Technology: Severely overbought
Tankers seem to look like they'll do great for at least 2 or 3 years.

>>18983591
>one time clusterfuck
>he hasn't been reading
>he doesn't have a sense of game theory
>he doesn't know oil extraction issues
>he really thinks that demand is coming back
>he really thinks that we're not already near total capacity

>>18983987
>if oil demand goes down
No, it's a function of supply, demand and storage. If storage is empty, demand is low and production is low, tankers suffer. If demand is high, storage is low and production is high, tankers win. If storage is full and production is higher than demand, tankers win jackpots.
>one time short event to profit then that disappears
Yes, that's what everyone's been saying from day one. Fucking brandon why so retarded.

>>18984020
I dont watch anime you bitch, last time I watched was 8 years ago.
>>18983932
Can you source me on that oil demand. Oil prices will be fucked for 1-2 years but why the fuck would demand be down? Is this based on a 2 year limited quarantine scenario?

Good copy pasta:

The United States will pull two Patriot missile batteries from guarding Saudi Arabian oil facilities, an American official told the Associated Press on Thursday, citing a disagreement over oil production.

The anonymous source also told the AP that the U.S. would pull out 300 U.S. troops staffing the missile batteries.

U.S. President Donald Trump said, when asked to confirm the reports during a televised coronavirus meeting with Texas Governor Greg Abbott, replied, “Well, I don’t want to talk about it,” adding merely that his administration was “doing some things” and “making a lot of moves in the Middle East and elsewhere. We’re doing a lot of things all over the world militarily. We’ve been taken advantage of all over the world, our military.”

President Trump’s words were vague, and did not mention crude oil, the OPEC production cuts, or the amount of oil the United States is currently cutting by market default. He also didn’t mention the Saudi elephant in the room—the 35 million barrels of Saudi oil in tankers idling off the U.S. coast waiting for their turn to unload into an already saturated oil market.

>>18984140
8 years ago you were a faggot. Once a faggot, ALWAYS a faggot!

>>18984170
Well yeah, Trump threatened Bin Salman directly the other day, they will pull out if he doesnt stop trying to bankrupt shale.

>>18983932
>>18983987
>No one thinks oil demand is coming back in two years
>Tankers are useless if oil demand goes down
you're forgetting about supply, dipshit. Tankers and (for some reason, allegedly) pipelines are the only places that can handle excess supply once the strategic reserves are full. They will be paid handsomely to store the oil that comes from companies who are forced to continue producing oil lest they lose their competitive edge. It is completely the demand shock and inability to consume crude oil that is making this tanker play viable for the next few years. There is absolutely no way to unfuck the storage issue until a fuckton of companies get strong armed.

>>18984140
there should be some infographs in previous threads for the use in China. It appears to not have come back to normal. We should probably watch CA for better info.

>>18984170
that will be interesting.

At least that shit country Saudi Arabia will burn to the ground over this.
Fucking arabs.

>>18984315
if they decide to shoot themselves in the foot and ramp up production we are in business til 2021

>>18983827
I've had all these concerns myself, particularly the quarantine one. We're fighting Trump and the public and hoping reality prevails which might be a losing bet in this clown economy. But tankers are SO successful right now and all the big players are looking for a slice. I'm not expecting 500% gainz. I will take 25% and get the fuck out and leverage half into oil and half into whatever as the economy reopens.
I just don't see how tankers could LOSE.

>>18983414
The bearish argument for tankers would be that they have little innate value beyond their cash flow, and that any changes in spot rates, even at 10x normal; would be so temporary that it would have little effect on their bottom line. You would only see a few quarters of good dividend before it becomes mediocre Bears point to charts over the last 10 years, say "it's shit", and that they expect the whole sector to go to zero anyway (world moving off oil, blah blah).
The bearish view imo is incomplete, when you take into account recent laws mandating scrubbers (this means old ships = scrapped = less ships overall, pushing rates up), or the absolute mess that corona is going to cause for both geopolitics and oil prices in general. Much US oil production is going to be offline for some time to come, if only due to it being uneconomical to produce from shale and other higher-cost sources.
Demand recovery is harder to predict, Rystad and GS were predicting a "return to normal" within 18 months, meaning the world would need to get that 100m/bbl from somewhere. OPEC states and Russia would happily take advantage of this by pumping all they can, meanwhile US shale plays and tight oil (which was barely profitable as-is at $30/bbl) are going to have to be reactivated. This takes time, and doesn't factor in secondary outbreaks of corona, or what happens if an extended recovery instead of v-shaped takes place. Bankruptcies and sector disruption are another issue in US production (may not be a problem, rumor is we're getting the helicopter money bailout of a lifetime in the months to come)
1/2

>>18984400
There's very much a geopolitical bent to all of this- removing a marginal player (US production / independence) helps move some power back to OPEC / Russia on the world stage. I don't think attempting to take out US shale was intentional, but the opportunity was too good to pass up with covid-19 causing chaos in the world. This too means increased tanker demand; combine that with the reactionary high of oil prices that is coming due to supply reduction and tankers are looking to have good profits for several years. Again, this is just one way it could play out- anything past Q2/Q3 is hard to call, as many expect political instability to ramp up.
2/2

>>18984231
>>18984261

Saudi Arabia is gambling in a big way!
Taking advantage of The United States of America once again..............

They will regret it.

>>18983827
Godspeed to you anon, I'll try to address some points but got to go soon to watch UFC with my bros

>>18983830
Exactly, this is the high reward side of the play that Im making a bet on. Except in crypto it'll take a while for institution and retail to buy in. Here, we're talking days to weeks.

>>18984023
>I disagree. Relative to the whole of the market, tankers appear to be one of the few places that is relatively safe.
There's a good argument that with the deleveraging from Q1, tankers are one of the only places that're actually safe. As well, if your paradigm is world won't open up as quick as MSM says, this is actually a pretty safe play compared to all other equity classes.

>>18984127
>one time short event to profit then that disappears
>Yes, that's what everyone's been saying from day one
Not necessarily if you believe contango is still in the game for june and july contracts. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6epEggATfoc if you haven't.

>>18984247
Trump can't let American oil fail or he won't get re-elected. But the wells need to operate at 65% or else the shutting down of wells would bankrupt the smaller American producers. Bullish for oversupply.

>>18984247
>there should be some infographs in previous threads for the use in China. It appears to not have come back to normal. We should probably watch CA for better info.
Here's a good pic. Notice how rushhour going to and from work is the same; but between is drastically lower. China mandated businesses start again to kick start economy, but graph shows A. Behavior is not the same amongst people yet. B. Outside of work, people are staying the fuck home. Bearish on oil.

>>18984400
Tankers can be converted to scrubbers, this is one of the reasons DHT's earnings came in a bit lower than expected, they had more off hire days due to ships being converted. Older tankers will indeed be scrapped however.

>>18984423
We're about to see an uptick in deepwater production despite all the talk about capital cuts, Exxon and others are not cutting these projects. It is shale that is getting cut unsurprisingly along with LNG export projects. This should lead to an increased demand for VLSFOs and tankers at some of these deepwater sites as there is minimal infrastructure in place to handle the oil.

>>18984700
>Not necessarily if you believe contango is still in the game for june and july contracts.
Still short-term desu senpai.

>>18983827
>No one is investing long in tanker stocks, everyone knows that everyone else is just in it for the quick pump, so you're competing with a bunch of yourselves, and the least greedy wins

The best tanker stocks could be good longs. Here's a good argument for EURN. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1256362045261389828.html

>the idea of investing in oil is on a downtrend (I'm not going to get into an eco debate - it's just the facts)
True, but we're talking at least 20-40 years. We're not seeing full EV anytime soon. Plenty of time for more market cycles.

>NAT was a clusterfuck and rose and died on complete retards that did no research
You're god damn right lol but it still has memestock potential from Cramer and youtube getting the name in all the normies' head's. A rising tide lifts all tankers.

>rates are high but starting to fall, unless something crazy happens, I can't imagine another pump
Rates are still high compared to previous years, despite dropping yes. Personally am betting on storage filling in May from USO normies "buying the bottom" (buying the reverse split kek) see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6epEggATfoc if you haven't

>the more quarantined life was, the more these had reason to pump, we are now de-escalating quarantine See pic >>18984700
for Beijing traffic data vs 2019. People are staying the fuck home.

Godspeed anon on your next investments.

>>18984755
True, but assuming it happens, we'll have exit opportunities after the pump; we're not going long for sure, we're playing by ear.

>>18984999
Is Seanergy worth investing in? Never heard of these guys.

>>18985050
No but they've got a sick ticker SHIP and funny shipnames

>>18984999
Based. I was really sold on tankers when I started following calvinfroedge and J mytzner on twitter. These guys have been in the game for years, and know what they're talking about.

>>18984400
>>18984423
I'm not a big oil guy, but some of the nuances of what's going on and shock to demand were big enough to catch my attention for tankers. Thanks for some additional details.

>>18984700
>>18984999
nice digits. Deleveraging isn't necessarily the big jackpot here, so much as it's likely that the tankers can have a long and healthy stream of revenue. The tankers look like one of the few industries that isn't at risk. Pure telecom, gold/PM, payments processing, and utilities are really the only safe bets that i've found. If there's no direct risk to revenues, there will be facing rippling effects from other industries, and it's going to hurt whether or not we're in a low rate environment
>We're not seeing full EV anytime soon
I think your horizon is right, but I would be a little cautious about that. I'd check in with Honda every once in a while to make sure the schedule isn't being bumped up.

OilChads, predection for WTI on opening? Will my 26$ shorts make it?

>>18985761
oil will keep going up until it doesnt

>>18985761
Not an oil chad, but your shorts will be fucking phenomenal on May 15th-21st. Happy trading.

Brandon is a chink
>Brandon is a chink
Brandon is a chink
>Brandon is a chink
Brandon is a chink

ching ching ping pong

daily number of TSA travellers

This was just posted in WSB. I don't think this accounts for a lot of things but I want to hear some thoughts. I can explain if need be.

>>18982422
All this maritime trading makes me want some fish n chips w/vinegar

I'm inebriated and I wish the market was open so I could buy some DHT

>>18986778
I placed an order for market open on DHT last weekend when it went up 54 cents, I’m fucking pissed bro

>>18983827
>NAT
Fatty NATty dumpety doo
I've got a perfect puzzle for you
Fatty NATty dumpety dee
If you are wise, you'll listen to me

Who do you blame when your stock takes a hit?
When markets dump worse than a Pajeet's shit?
Blaming yourself is a lie and a shame
You know exactly who's to blame

>>18986778
>>18987161

I'm personally being extra careful. I'm worried about shakeouts early in the week. This is Goldstein's last chance to shake us out before options expire and news of storage troubles come up again.

>>18986778
I agree with >>18987328

I feel a big green move in the morning closing in the red, then from there we move up all week until Friday. Also depends what the price of oil is on Sunday.

>>18987415
>>18987328
Fuck Goldman and Fidelity
>tfw covered straddles

Just in case someone is still bearish, I pulled this up from the Q4 2019 forward looking statement.

>"$1,000/day increase in rates will generate ~$50 million of incremental annualized cash flow"

That is fucking jaw dropping. Just think about that for one second. Not only are they delaying expensive scrubber instillation, but refineries are going to kick into overdrive as crude oil inventories build, which creates more demand for clean fuel storage. We're already at 150k a day, and I believe LR1s and LR2s will hit record highs in rates, carrying STNG too a whole new level of growth. NOBODY IS USING DISTILLATE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.

A lot of bears are saying spot crude for VLCC has dropped, which is true but it doesn't have any bearing on clean fuel storage.
So therefore:

>$STNG to $88/share.
>$ASC to $8/share
>$DSSI to $18/share

>>18988249
oh fug I don't have any STNG at all
I'm going all in on Monday baby

>>18988249
Would this include lng's and lpg's? That'd be good for TK/TGP I'd figure. Still trying to learn the different types.

>>18988249
Does this include FRO and DHT?