/biz/ - Business & Finance

inb4 dog dick boy

HOIST THE FLAG AND STOW THE BARRELS

WE SAIL FOR FAIRER SEAS

I THINK TANKERS SUCK

>>18959311
Checked, and great image kek.

>>18959387
AYE AYE CAP'N! We be breakin' out the rum soon!

I have eman, mro, kos

I have a grand in each. Tell me why and which I should put a grand into tanker. Which one? should I pick several?

otherwise I was thinking about buying more oil, Idk if now is a good time to buy it though

>>18959426

>>18959502
>buying oil right now
dude...

>>18959387
Cargo is holdin', capn. Thar be black gold in the bilge but we'll sell that too when we hit port.

I loaded up another $450 on DHT June calls today. Markets clapped a little bit but give it a week or two and retail will go totally nuts for tankers, as will institutions as a hedge against further oil failures. Only issue is when the next market leg down will hit- I suspect oil failing may be enough to kick that off. At least we'll get our $2000/mo trumpBux or whatever it ends up being.

>>18959502
See OP's pic about your oil. Do your diddly for tankers. There are good ones mentioned in OP including earnings results.

>>18959502
watch the OP first youtube link anon. For your own good.

>>18959580
It literally can't go lower

/tsg/ is max comfy

inb4 brandonposter

Anyone got insight into SHIP?

>>18959311
NOW HOIST YOUR SAILS
AND SAY YOUR FAREWELLS
TO YOUR WENCHES AND YOUR SELLS

FOR WE'RE OFF WITH THE WINDS
IN PURSUIT OF DIVIDENDS
WITH OUR FELLOW TANKER FRIENDS

STAY ON GUARD FOR YOUR BOOTY CREWS
AND BE WEARY OF THE JEWS
WHO YOUR PROFIT THEY WISH YOU TO LOSE

IN THE END WE WILL WIN
AND THROUGH YOUR SCURVY YOU'LL GRIN
IF YOU STAY THE COURSE, BOATSWAIN

>>18959791
screenshot for posterity

>>18959502
Some are going to do well, some are going to lag. For instance, I believe FRO, EURN and DHT are going to lag behind in terms of equity gain in the short term, but they're great divvie stocks for the next year at the very least, it all depends on what you and what your trading strategy is.

Slow recovery? Tankers make ridiculous money on contango while they transition to shipping
Fast recovery? Tankers make good money on shipping

The timing in which this manifests is different than other industries. Tankers take charters for X periods of time, either for a voyage or for storage. You don't see what they're really going to do until (a) they unload and take their profit share, and (b) they negotiate new contracts. This is part of the reason they are being btfo right now - people who aren't usually in the space are looking for day to day movement and that's just not how it works, tankers are Bart Simpson as all fuck. Compound this with market maker shennanigans and this has-never-happened-before-ever oil glut and it's hard to say which tanker stock is going to to what, other than the industry is going to do well over the next year, LITERALLY ALL OF THEM (with DHT adjusted) are beating Q1 earnings projections which is just absolutely insane.

In other words, take your pick according to your goals and diligence, just diversify and do not try to time the market with a significant part of your portfolio.

>>18959436
NOT BEFORE YOU SQUARE AWAY YOUR BUNK YA SKALLYWAG - I RUN A TIGHT SHIP, NOT A SHITE TIP!

>>18959604
We'll make a sailor o' you yet.

Think you're right. I had hoped for a slight dip to pick up some more FRO, but you can't have everything.

>>18959827
peak comfy

>>18959502
I used to own FANG, XOM, MRO, HAL, and KOS. I sold all of it a few days ago, a few at a time, but eventually went fully out of oil. And I all-in'ed tankers. You want FRO and DHT for sure. if you choose just one, let it be one of those. For a third tanker or fourth or so, can go STNG, or EURN. In terms of priority. All other tankers are lesser priority but will yield profit and are good anyways.

All recent data has just confirmed oil demand has not overtaken supply and will not, and estimates for filling global supply completely range from mid May to end of May. Essentially, oilmageddon is upon us and every analyst knows it but aren't shouting it to the skies in fear of spreading absolute panic. Big firms been doubling their tanker purchases every month consistently. This is not the time to buy oil, right now it is being run up to sell off for the big rollover event for futures contracts and supply filling. Oil is a trap now, take your gains now like I did.

>>18960016
AYE AYE CAP'N! CLEARING THE CABIN AND MOPPIN THE DECK, WE ARGH GONNA FIND YER TREASURE!

So do I just keep on steadily buying XOM?
I do, right?
What else?

>>18959761
Kek.
He should watch the second one as well. Good supplemental piece about the Nordic tanker industry.
>>18959806
Just as it should be.
>>18959827
Based and ocean pilled

>>18959813
nice ticker and nice ship names lol.
Looks like they transport coal and iron, we're mostly speculating on oil storage here anon. But hey, a rising tide lifts all boats lmfao. with a ticker like that you can't lose. Honestly one of the best predictors of stock performance is a cool ticker like WEED, SHOP, or GOLD (go invest in gold.tsx tsg, I'm only telling you guys cause I like you guys)

>>18959827

AND SHOULD OUR BOW BEGIN TO LIST
WE HOLD OUR SHARES; TO SELL, RESIST!
THROUGH THE STORM! THROUGH SPRAY OF MIST!
TILL GREENER LANDS, TILL SUNLIGHT'S KISS

>>18959813
China has been increasing it's imports of coal and iron I believe. I'm hoping the bulker and containership industries to perform well after the economy opens up again so I'm planning on investing in them in a couple of months.
>>18960285
I vote this general expands to all maritime ventures. Tankers, lpgs, bulkers, and containerships.

>>18960109
I want to roll the eventual tankers profits into energy after this- MRO, XOM, HESS, RDS.B etc. Either very long calls 2 years out or actual stock. Supermajors and mid caps should survive this fine, and the sector will eventually recover (world runs on oil after all).

Remember after a supply glut usually comes a shortage. Oil producers will be bearish turning on the taps again after mothballing them, we'll see $80-$100 oil easy. Energy sector will do rather well, as will renewables (in theory). What's harder to factor in is what the real recovery will be like from this- everyone right now is talking V-shaped recovery, but factor in 2nd outbreaks of covid / more lock downs, and it's unlikely

>>18960378
I mentioned this in the last thread - definitely agree maritime general would be suuuuuper comfy, but we should keep minds focused on tankers/impending oilmageddon for the time being.

>>18960427
Don't touch RDS.B
Everything they were doing before they cut the dividend was shady.

>>18960337
ANON WORKED AS A NEET UNLIKE HIS FATHER AND HIS GRAN

A' WORKING IN A BASEMENT JACKING TO BOAT STOCKS AND 2D GIRLS FROM JAPAN

ONE DAY ANON WAS HARD, THE JEW APPEARED RIGHT FROM HELL

HE HELD A ROLL OF GLOOM AND A BUCKET FULL OF SELL

THE JEW SAID UNTO ANON, "TAKE THESE SELLS AND GOYISH GLOOM"

BUT YOU ALSO TAKE THESE LOSSES AND I WILL TAKE THE BOOM

ANON DESPISED THE JEW, AND THE JEW SQUEALED AND HISSED

AND THE ANON KNEW TO WELL THE TANKERS WERE TO GOOD TO RESIST

>>18960432
Agreed, just thinking long term if the tankers bust eventually.

When are we finally going to at least break even on this?

For when OilAnon eventually wanders in:
> https://www.iene.eu/the-role-of-oil-storage-stressed-in-ienes-latest-energy-weekly-report-p5680.html
> Storm is here boys
Pic related. If avg. world operational capacity is really only 80% of marked, batten down the hatches and make any final chess moves.

>>18960581
Dutch have always been shady, I'm not sure what'll happen with future RDS.B divvy, but shell stock always seems to perform well.

>>18960626
WE DO IT ALL FOR THE DIVVIES
SAIL ON
THE DIVVIES
SAIL ON

SO YOU CAN TAKE YOUR CG'S
AND STICK THEM UP YOUR, YEAH
STICK THEM UP YOUR, YEAH
STICK THEM UP YOUR, TEAH

>>18960600

>>18960643
Jeez. Jeez. JEEEZ. Well, I want someone's opinion then. Think it is worth it to sell NAT for EURN? Or doesn't make much of a difference, least not enough to worry about? I may not follow advice anyways, but I really want opinion to gauge if it matters enough.

>>18959311
Hey OP, here are some twitters that post extremely useful information. Might want to put it somewhere because these guys are always on top of it.
https://twitter.com/calvinfroedge
https://twitter.com/TankersInt
https://twitter.com/mintzmyer

>>18960685
RDS.B is trying to shift out of oil. They were buying back shares to try to depress the dividend and use part of the dividend for green ventures. And it hosed pension plans that use it as a blue chip. Their management does not inspire confidence.
They should be avoided at all costs.

>>18960775
What's bad about NAT? I didn't invest in them but just curious. I'm currently in NNA, TNP, TK, STNG, FRO, DHT and EURN but other than the divvies I can't really say which is the better option.

>>18960775
Whole sector is going to get a boost. Some stocks will do better than others, but it's impossible to pick winners / losers out before it happens. Catching knives gets you cut. Can you hold both?

What's the correlation between tankers and anime?

>>18960856
Nothing really, just normie exposure I guess and shitcoin tendency due to pump and dump before. But as a company I see nothing wrong at all.

>>18960884
Can't. I am in FRO, DHT, and NAT. So I am diversified. And got divvies.

>>18960900
They are both held by winners.

>>18960900
i think it's a correlation between board non-immigrants and anime.

>>18960985
>non-immigrants
The word is "natives"

>>18960900
Because Tank'n Wank. And what else is better to wank too.
>>18960941
EURN is a safe pick so if you feel NAT won't be as reliable go for it. But I don't know how much you lose from that trade.

>>18960715
BASED

>>18961019
Is EURN that great? Currently I'm just holding DHT (seems the safest) and FRO (they seem the most excited). What are the benefits of EURN?

>>18960775
NAT is pure trash compared to $EURN. Not shilling, I did the research in early April and so have the experts. The only thing $NAT has in terms of advantage is the huge cushion from retail and it's financial health is pretty good. In mid april, $NAT was 40% traded by retailers as opposed to STNG and FRO which were trading at about 10%. It's a bubble and it's going to pop. Don't know how everyone still believes in their company compared to actual tankers.

>>18960941
I'm in TK, DHT, and TNP. Your exposure is fine imo (plus awesome dividends). This is a sector wide play, and fundamentals matter less than market sentiment does. Any and every tanker will become the new golden boy for a little bit.

>>18959311
how are you guys buying your tanker oil acronyms?

>>18961082
Please don't put anymore money into $NAT, it deserves to be at $3 in comparison to the share price of the other tankers. They're the clowns of the tanker sector. I mean seriously, they have 23 Suezmax which don't even have rate that are that good. In comparison to STNG who has LR1s and EURN who has VLCCs, NAT is just not a good buy

Sorry for 2 posts, 4chan thinks im bot

https://pastebin.com/tmk6biYg

>>18961058
Eurn has the most VLCCs in the entire sector which make soooo much money right now. They also have the best financing and management in the sector, they're like the blue chips of tankers. Probably the safest best if you wanted to YOLO, massive deleveraging play.

>>18960427
Okay, good stuff. I'm new and inexperienced to investing and I can't afford to lose all of the money I'm throwing in right now, so I'll stick with oil stocks for stability.
Thanks for the help and good luck with the tankers!

>>18961200
That does sound good. Will it be too late to get in on Monday?

>>18959311

anyone else in DSSI?? Only tanker that I am still in the green on. looks to be undervalued compared to it's peers

They had earnings the other day:
Diamond S Shipping (NYSE:DSSI): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.12 beats by $0.23.
Revenue of $209.73M (+104.3% Y/Y) beats by $48.15M.

>>18961254
> I can't afford to lose all of the money I'm throwing in right now
Exit the market completely if getting clapped will wreck your finances, seriously. You shouldn't have more in this then you're willing to lose. That's NOT a meme, and you could get stomped if the markets leg down. Tankers are no less risky than the oil companies atm, even if the fundamentals seem solid.
Anyway welcome to the markets, you'll find a lot of bad advice, some good advice, lose money, make money, and be here forever. Just don't lose your shirt, ya know?

>>18961019
I lose a good deal. Which is actually the only reason I don't do it. If NAT would suddenly surge and EURN sits in its normal range then I would swap in a heartbeat. But as it stands, probably won't happen as if they surge they all will at once. I feel it is reliable, but I also feel like the fleet isn't as strong and like as if it was run up a ton already.

>>18961082
>>18961161
I think calling it trash is a bit much, it is very healthy financially and retail cushion is a positive once things go up. Honestly no one actually knows their health until earnings come out. I just didn't buy into EURN over NAT because it is newer and has a small trading range, unknown potential. These other tankers have a known enormous potential, but EURN has sat in the same few dollars since inception which....is a good thing finance wise for the company, but also "well, where do we go?" too. idk, if NAT explodes first I might be able to switch otherwise my finances are kind of tied to my positions now....if I want to maximize in share numbers at least.

>>18961001
I forgot my english, thanks

>>18959311
Check it out anons. The dirty kike is buying the rumor

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Oil-Demand-Could-Exceed-Supply-By-End-May.html

>>18961143
I went by dividends and dominance in the market. And Greeks. Praise Hellas.
>>18961058
Currently at around $10 a share with divvies of .81 per.
>>18961266
They were $10.4 at close I think so should still be good.

>>18961467
More like, creating the rumor after having bought. Expecting more retail activity next week.

>>18961355
I don't mean it's money I owe, I just mean I'm poor.
Rather than risk not seeing the signs of the end of the tanker boom, I'll just hold some oil and get my money next year.

>>18961531
> risk not seeing the signs of the end of the tanker boom
No one is perfect with timing, that's why you see things like DCA in and out of a position. There is always that one guy that nails it perfectly, and isn't you... and that's OK. Making gains is all that matters, even imperfect gains.
If you're not comfortable with the risk, that's OK too... tradings hard, ngl.

>>18961531
If you can buy puts, you should be able to hedge relatively well for tankers. There are at least 3 good setups to consider:
- Buy puts on the way up (at least 2 sets, one for when tankers invariably go down so you can buy the stock back at a discounted price and make extra money exercising the put, and another set to protect your profit at a level you are minimally comfortable with)
- Set a stop order and buy puts (same idea as before, more likely to be shaken but easier to move as tankers go higher, due to lesser premiums)
- Set stops on the way up and write calls when you have achieved your target, buy puts for the leg down. This allows you to get the put for free or almost free and lock in profit at the same time.

>>18961364
A lot of these people are assuming that we're going back to 2016 share prices. $NAT has had massive share dilution so they're not going back to that range unless we're exceptionally lucky. I just want you to know if we do a get run up in the sector don't expect NAT to be a winner.

There's a new MacroVoices video on oil:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6epEggATfoc

tl;dr wait for 18th to see if the tanker play is still viable

>>18961879
That dilution is a good point.

>>18961879
Well. That just makes me a bit sad. Probably stuck with it then unless it has a shitcoin day and runs up enough for me to manuevor to EURN with comfortable shares. Least I got DHT and FRO which have enormous potential as always.

>>18961943
This leads some credence that they (policy makers) want to make this into a geopolitical play, and blame the inevitable 2nd leg down on a failure in the energy market (Those darned faceless saudi oil tankers, grr!). But at the same time Cushing is full, and no one is going to be able to take June delivery, not to mention full tanks in other regions.

This whole game is as dirty and black as the crude in the tankers.

>>18962129
$FRO is absolutely a winner. $DHT is also great. I think you're in a good position, if $NAT gets another retail pump I strongly encourage you sell, but what do I know... Good luck fren

>>18960715
NOW I KNOW WHY YOU WANNA HATE ME

>>18962251
>but what do I know
If you are who has said that a lot around /smg/, then your advice is definitely noted. Just hope the retail pump comes first which gives opportunity to sell. Without opportunity....just the price differential with shares makes it too risky to re-enter in another tanker, I am shooting for closing the gap with EURN which given previous NAT high is possible to be reasonably close. Just....not half, kek.

Thank you friend, it is up to the market now whether I can follow through or not.

Id look into BORR drilling. Looking good after hours and all month low starting to get attention. Definitely oversold stock 14x than before the rona.

>>18961879
Which is exactly why I threw a bunch of money at STNG. They went through a reverse split at the beginning of 2019 right before the goodtimes at the end of the year.

>>18961493
>I went by dividends and dominance in the market. And Greeks. Praise Hellas.
i meant through who are you guys buying, but thank you.

>>18962739
Any predictions for STNG price?

tanker shitcoins are for anime trannies

>>18961943
I think everybody knows that the oil storage problem is not going away. I mean just think about that drop to $10 we had on April 28th. We barely saw a tiny blip and it just kept rising straight up for a week? And from that point on, oil bulls are trying to tell me that we've just recovered? No issues, all the wells closed up and we stopped making oil so the contango is fixed? There have been no logistical issues and we're on the straight and narrow to $60 a barrel? No fucking way. Not a in a million years. All the big banks and analysts have said
that oil will be volatile in the near future. How come we've just seen a straight shot back up? I think futures traders haven't learned their lessons or are setting up shorts. There is no way we just leave a giant fucking catastrophe like it never even happened
>BUT MUH V SHAPED RECOVERY
Shut the fuck up, anyone who says this obviously doesn't even have any understanding of macroeconomics and shouldn't be investing. Patrick even states that he has a short position, he just wants to make sure he keeps his credibility on the 0.01% chance hes wrong. I'm so fucking bullish on tankers right now I might just double up again, i trust my vibe and will weather through any storm. The fundamentals are there and I hope MM's get dick short squeezed off. I'M A THREAD AWAY FROM GOING ALL IN.

>>18962779
O sorry I use fidelity.

>>18962739
I am very bullish on STNG if the strong tanker market continues. Biggest fleet and best exposure to distillate fuels. They are screwed if rates suddenly drop to dog shit but I just cannot bring myself to even consider that as a possibility.

>>18962913
thanks, my dude.

>>18960285
made 300 bucks with SHIP this morning
just need to catch her early and wait for the tiny bump to .16, it very likely will not moon into .30 like before, its a pretty shit greek stock

Just got gas for $1.99 a gallon.
That is pretty damn cheap.

>>18963052
didn't realise this was a penny stock.

UCO PUTS

is this thread a secret bobo coping general?

>>18963682
Cap'n Bobo is the only bobo I need. He steers our ships to foreign, divvy rich lands.

>>18963682
>>18963985
There's enough room for the bulls AND bears where these ships are sailing.

>https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-veteran-warns-on-rates-the-storm-is-coming

I know this article is bearish, but I want to hone in on this quote:

>"Kilcullen explained that these were spot voyages booked in February and March at lower-than-current rates that were supposed to discharge in March and April “but have been unable to do so because of logistical constraints, including refinery closures and lack of onshore storage.”

>“We’ve been earning demurrage on these stranded voyages, which unfortunately for us is significantly lower than the rates that have prevailed for most of the quarter and we have been unable to fix these vessels to take advantage of the strong market conditions,” said Kilcullen. He disclosed that charterers of the company’s stranded ships have been paying an average demurrage rate of $33,000 per day.

Assuming that the land oil storage crisis stays stagnant or gets worse, isn't this huge for the spot tankers that were locked in a couple of weeks ago? I feel like demurrage hasn't been fairly calculated in the intrinsic value of these stocks. If everything is in gridlock at ports (which we've seen in california etc) then the company that has contracted the tankers out has to pay 150k+ a day for every day after laytime. That's pretty bullish, right? What am I missing here?

>>18964345
No, rates are discussed in advance. Only those open spots can possibly be booked at higher rates. It's bullish for tankers that haven't yet had full capacity, and it's super-bullish for those that are only booked for a quarter (for the sake of q3 but not q2) assuming they'll be able to unload by then.

>>18964410
Do you know which company has the best spot exposure? I feel like ports could be clogged for months. This could be huge IMO.

>>18964507
I need to check again because you're right that it's a good opportunity. I think smaller players are best positioned for this as a result. DHT definitely has 33% of its vessels still unfixed but it has a lot of vessels currently on voyages into mid-q2, not clear what will happen there.

>>18964345
you discuss demurrage rates in the contract. In a situation like this you make them disgustingly high.

>comfy thread

>>18964583
>>18964550
I'll do some more research tonight on which companies has/had best spot exposure recently. Seems like a really good opportunity.

also this is what gives me faith <3
>https://youtu.be/lQ5UO3Ue4-8
>comfy ^.^

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6epEggATfoc

TANKERS ARE CANCELLED

SELL SELL SELL

>>18960643
Based.

Gonna hit you with some meme line analysis. Looking first at XLE (Big Dick Oil), today it just broke up out of a bullish 2-week pennant pattern. Currently broke above $39 afterhours. However, it also signaled overbought on the hourly, so I have doubts about this breakout. We will see on monday if momentum is peaked. If XLE closes above $40 on Monday that is bad news for us,at least in the short term (10-60 days).

Another one to look at is XTN, transportation sector, a good indicator for oil future prices. Big bearish wedge forming still from the march crash. Currently trading at $48.20. Will probably hit $50 on Tuesday. If it is trading above $52 on Wednesday, that will break this pattern and it will probably keep going. That means oil goes higher, and that's bad for us. Trading below $48 anytime between now and Thursday would kick oil in the nuts, and confirm my doubts about XLE breakout.

So we could see a nice gain going into Friday next week and the week after, OR we could be choking on green dildos getting DP'd by XLE and XTN.

>>18964849
>WTI = Brent
This is why you're not gonna make it

>>18964971
Oh no I put half my portfolio into tankers

>>18964903
hey oilanon, can I get a quick summary of your thoughts on oil for the next two weeks? thanks broder

How longterm are these stocks? They've got some nice dividends, but i'm not familiar enough with the industry to predict if they're gonna be good in 5 years when FRO would have paid back the cost

>>18965034
Sure, the actual companies are overvalued rn due to long term bull hype(a lot of production and exploration will evaporate due to the crisis causing a longterm supply shortage post-crisis). The bulls are getting preemptive.
Even if they keep going up its not worth getting in now only leveraging out. Eventually reality has to reassert itself. I wouldn't touch any actual oil companies rn except for 5-10 year hold plays(even then I think better prices will appear).Shorting this bubble is kinda pointless simply b/c clown market is bs.
As for futures and crude itself:
Storage is running out. USO mandate change means the negative run[highly probable for my money] will be less dramatic in WTI(but still exist due to retail and reality for the commodity with storage), once storage is over(assuming it is pre-contracts closing which is likely) then WTI among others still go negative regardless.

The interesting one is Brent, if I recall correctly the Brent funds have not done shit(after the WTI disaster in April) to change their mandates for trading brent futures.
As such Brent is in the same position WTI was last month of big players with fucked mandates who will panic sell when they realize their contracts are worthless end of the month causing mass retail panic.
Both probably go negative regardless due to retail issues(this has been mitigated by brokerages closing down trading).
If you are shorting something look at the underlying commodity(crude) and short the futures contracts or the funds that trade the future. This is because it is way harder to bs the value of a real commodity like crude.
Alternatively funds that short the crude exist(SCO comes to mind)
Options on futures also exist fyi if you are into that(be warned expiration is not the same day as the actual futures contract and a lot of them are European and not American style).

You already likely know about longing tankers.
I need to sleep soon anything else you would like to know before I head to bed?

>>18965226
Value-wise, not long-term. Might trade at 1x-2x current prices in normal times, which will be about 1.5-2 years from now. Dividend-wise, stng should be about stable, dht and eurn will be back to normal dividends soon enough, for example.

>>18965365
Whats your companies to watch in the following weeks. Sitting on the side and am debating whether or not to jump into these supermajor companies because I missed the march dip/tank. Do you think we would see a crash like that again or no when oil storage ultimately gets filled?

>>18965365
I keep seeing people saying NAT isnt a good idea. Should I switch it to another tanker? I bought it while it was still kind of high

>>18965561
Are you only holding NAT?

>>18965365
Nah bro, we're literally on the exact same page. Pretty much everything you said I had in mind. Gonna go in on $SCO monday if oil prices continue to rise, no way we don't see a massive drop on options expiration for futures. Not really sure about brent in terms of shorting, not my cup of tea. Thank you for your summary!

>>18964971
Nailed it.

>>18965561
Why you shouldn't hold $NAT https://youtu.be/lQ5UO3Ue4-8?t=415

It has good financials but it's never gonna go back to 2016 cuz of share dilution. it's probably the worst in the crude market due to its low fleet size and only having suezmaxs. The swedish meatball who owns it is pretty much a total clown. You're much better off switching to something like $STNG or $EURN.

>>18965397
Stocks are valued on the long term, why do you think the magical idea that they create dividends out of nowhere?

>>18965586
I've got about 200 NAT and DHT and like 15 FRO

>>18965408
I think an oil company crash is justified rn.
Will a crash happen I have no fucking clue the market is acting retarded with this clown nonsense.
But if you are asking me whether I think CVX is overvalued rn the answer is yes.
The market is anticipating a bull run that should start any day now or so we are told(but clearly won't start for at least another half year probably a full year). This seems like a bull trap for most of these companies.
Will you make money on most of these companies if they 1) don't go broke and 2) you just baghold forever:
probably yes.
Does it justify your opportunity cost and is the current entry position justified?
No not at all.
Example:
CVX bottomed at 54.
Normally they are between 100 and 120. Obviously they've gone below and above that but that is roughly where they have been since 2011 with a few times going over and during very bad times going under(2015).
Right now they are at 95.
XOM I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole their discount is similar to CVX minor and they are in a weaker position then CVX(even though they are a bigger company).
COP discount rn is just not worth bothering with(upside longterm relative to where this market is rn)
TOT is somewhere in the middle.
BP is at more attractive discount.
RDS.B has a more attractive current discount.
ENI I don't know enough about to trust my money in them even if the current discount is alright.
I don't think supermajors are the play here the all seem really overvalued. The companies to look for are those that can increase production when the crisis ends the most and even XOM cut exploration(TOT has a massive find they could utilize but it would take a while and some planning to set up and time correctly since it is a traditional drilling asset)
1/2

>>18965408
>>18965727
2nd tiers would be the play but Hess is also ridiculous.
Only OXY of the huge traditional companies is trading at an attractive discount and that is due to the Anardarko debt dramas. Ironically the OXY assets if they can get their act together debt wise give them massive bounce back potential in valuation.
Shale has the greater upswing potential but I still worry about a lot of these companies even the healthier ones like PXD and EOG having their debt problems exacerbated and crippling them due to the crisis.
Also a lot of the less healthy shale companies are trading way over what they should be due to this bullmarket hype(have investors forgotten these corps have massive debt problem)? Again upswing potential is there but they are still overvalued rn.
The secondary problem is exploration. As these companies are cutting costs and that includes exploring when the bull market starts who will have the non-utilized wells to actually ramp up production on(this reason I rather like TOT for their Suriname discovery, it is massive and the well is not open).

But the real big play here is for companies with big exploration finds that have not built wells(and thus very low current costs) so they can scale up when the crisis ends. Simply because when the bull market starts it will be a race to find and build wells(if you have big wells found that you just need to build you are king). The problem for shale is they have wells but they stopped looking for new ones during the crisis and a large section of shale wells are still running rn(a problem once the crisis ends) also debt, lots of debt worries.
My 2 cents on oil companies stock anyways.
As for price action I don't know enough about that to tell you anything.
2/2

>>18965713
DHT seems to be the safe bet everyone is going for. FRO and EURN are solid companies. EURN seems to be run by the most competent people.
NAT is a stagnant company with diluted stock values, it's like a retirement home for boomer maritime workers. They don't do much, they don't have much, and they don't care. I don't know anything about STNG or NNA but people seem to like them, apparently STNG is really stable but some say too stable, so take that as you will.
I am in DHT and FRO with some EURN.

>>18965750
Hmmm thanks for the opinion, maybe I'll switch over if I see a good oppertunity.

>>18965561
NAT is a good company the (main) issue is that it is the retail drama pick due to RobinHood, Reddit and Youtube. Also ditto on the previously mentioned(by other anons) share dilution and again these are all relative to the industry.
There are better companies fundamentals wise and also fleet wise relative to current share price but NAT will still make you money.
>>18965587
The reasoning for Brent is that its never happened before for them so if you are say entering an options play you can negotiate from a stronger hand. Also for general shorting:
>Brent has a higher price to begin with combined with the big funds not altering their strategies means it probably has a more dramatic fall
Just a personal feeling.
BNO btw for the US Brent fund.(USO only its for Brent instead of WTI)

>>18965836
Hey OilAnon what would your personal picks be if you could only bet on a couple of these companies? Like top 2-3 choices?

>>18965866
For Oil or for Tankers?

>>18965886
Both, if possible. I'm holding MRO, OXY, and GUSH for oil-related investments and I'd just like to get your perspective.
Thanks for always dropping this kind of knowledge BTW, it's fascinating getting an in-depth look at this stuff.

>>18965836
> Oil Bear visits the EU, brings negative brent
> iT NeVeR HaPpEnEd BeFoRe
Opening the yolo 19 jun $75 1p on BNO. Oil final boss battle time. I seriously hope I'm wrong about storage issues triggering the next market leg down.

>>18965898
Here is generally how I look at it:
I look at the company assets(in the case of oil companies open wells closed wells that can be opened quickly and finds for new wells they can start drilling) and try to find a fair valuation once oil starts to rebound(at different oil pricepoints based on the companies breakevens and how fast they can scale up[a function of wells discoveries and debt/balance sheets]). Compare that to current price(in valuation) of said company(most of which are overvalued rn current conditions are awful and won't improve fast enough to justify current prices but again clown markets).
I do the same for tankers only replace wells with ships(and their storage capacity) and also replace finds and scale-up with spot rates/utilization(what percent of the fleet does spotting and how much have longterm contracts vs can still take advantage of improving conditions).
The problem for picking individual stocks is they are all moving so much every day(and there are so many of them) that the underlying current valuation relative to what I think the fair valuation keeps changing and its really makes it annoying to make picks that are up to date(compounded on the fact that I am obligated to schoolwork most of the day anyway so I don't have time to look at these numbers and admittedly I have yet to set up a spreadsheet to do this for me automatically[probably should at some point but I have one last test coming up so no time rn]).
Funny thing is most of the other regulars on these threads have probably kept a closer eye then I have on these stocks the past two weeks simply b/c of personal life obligations.

So I can't tell you rn b/c my models(For stock valuation) are all out of date due to new info I haven't had time to input. I'm still really pissed about them closing futures trading on crude because shorting that(either by shorting the actual contract or by longing a naked put) would have been a lot simpler and a lot higher return on investment.

>>18965973
BNO is at 8.11 USD.
Contracts close on the 22nd if memory serves.
Crisis might not happen until the 22nd(might also happen before it) so be warned on options(missing by one day or two would suck dick my dude).
For Jun they are likely to go below 7.5 just because Brent goes negative.
The reason a bet on the commodity is more attractive is simply the price movement will be so massive since it can go negative that return on investment will be higher if you can figure out timing. Again fuck the brokerages for shutting down crude futures.

>>18966124
Yeah you're right, I'm a bit antsy about my own moves because I'm still new to this and everything is fluctuating so much. I tried swing trading and it was just too wild for me in this climate.
Thanks for some insight into your thought process though.

>>18966124
a nz anon started shorting from $21 to $17 crude oil cfds and makes $140k in mid April. It was glorious.

>>18966251
And now its closed at least with all brokerages I and my dad have access to. Feels bad man.

>>18966175
Any luck finding who is still trading crude futures? From the look of things they locked out everyone but the good ol' boys club. Can't have retail traders demanding their 1000 bbl trucks of crude oil (or making money on a once in a lifetime trade).
I'd rather have puts on the commodity than an ETF which may or may not behave like you want it too.

And yeah, the yolo puts are like that. You never put in more than $100, and most of the time you *will* get clapped. They also like to 10x.

>>18966348
None whatsoever but I'm still searching. Anyways I need to go to bed, night anons.

>>18966374
Good luck on the test OilAnon. Going to be an exciting next two weeks.

Whats your guys take on the OXY drama? Will it survive or is it going to go down in flames due to Vick/Buffet/ and Ichan?

>>18966419
What OXY drama?

>>18966419
>OXY drama
??

>>18966710
>>18966711
Oxy's CEO placed the company in a bad position overpaying for Andarko by trying to outbid CVX. The fact that buffet and Ichan are also in the background duking it out makes me somewhat concerned about their future.

Fatty NATty dumpety doo
I've got a perfect puzzle for you
Fatty NATty dumpety dee
If you are wise, you'll listen to me

Who do you blame when your stock takes a hit?
When markets dump worse than a Pajeet's shit?
Blaming yourself is a lie and a shame
You know exactly who's to blame

>>18967004
based and /tanker/pilled. $NAT is literally hot garbage if you buy it anywhere above $3.80

Sleep well anons. Enjoy your weekend away from the stock market.

>>18967004
Stop it! I am holding these bags and don't have an exit point! I got FRO and DHT, but I am sitting with NAT bags on the side! I wanna put them into EURN, but exit point! Please! I might actually accept half value or so in my swapping even if it disproportions my share amount and makes it less neat. Just run up on one more shitcoin day please without letting the other tankers leave it in the dust yet.

>>18968085
You too, I am going to rest well as we all should. We got big days ahead of us.

>>18968430
Have faith. Nobody expects tankers to really go off on Monday, we'll all still be watching the movements by then. All the tankers have been slowly climbing, NAT might have a good day and then it still might not be too late to sell it off with no loss and sink all of that into EURN instead.

>>18968592
I like that essentially EURN and NAT have a 2:1 price ratio. I much prefer my beautiful 500/500/500 share distribution between FRO, DHT, and NAT, but I have become very wary of NAT the more I researched and compared with EURN and STNG (I never cared about those two much until recently) and heard criticism that was actually constructive of it. I am willing to trade down to 250 shares of EURN for 500/500/250 distribution...unfortunately, but if NAT has a very good day and EURN doesn't then I can up my shares converted, maybe if it is really out of whack I can fill the rest in on margin, idk I am autistic enough to actually make an issue of it. But I will settle for 250 shares instead since it has a lack of a history so it is pure speculation seeing where it is going in the future. I think it is better than NAT though. I don't like STNG in comparison to these so I don't want to take it up. I am thinking of TNP though as a perfect NAT replacement.

We both hold DHT and FRO, just differ on stock 3. I am having a small debate about TNP vs. EURN, but EURN is winning for me so far if simply for the fact they have reported already and announced one hell of a divvy. Maybe if NAT does suddenly real well I can convert shares to 250 for EURN and 100 for TNP, but who knows. 1 good day for NAT is enough for me to make a profit overall off it since I didn't FOMO in from Cramer rally, but if I can get a shitcoin day I would be highly comfy in my conversion. Otherwise stuck bagholding I guess.

>>18968878
Relax. NAT will still make a profit, you won't be left holding anything. Let's just see how things pan out.

>>18968899
I am relaxed, thank you though anon. Well, I should say I am not panicking. I am just excited. I am aware it will make a profit, just others make more profit. I am experiencing no real pain anon, it is more like the pain you get while playing vidya. I am winning in my mind either way so "I am having fun," but I am into it and anxious due to the boss battle in front of me. So to speak.

>>18968912
We're all gonna make it. We're gonna be the ones who own boats.

i filled up my car 3 times over the past 2 months

>>18968924
The dream. Poorfag stack will yield me a ton of cash at any rate which I can reinvest into the inevitable high divvy return-to-lows market later as reality sets in to the market....or lockdown for wave 2 happens. Then I get my boat anyways once I take profits from tanker peak to ultra cheapies. The true dream. I look forward to making it with you anon.

>>18968933
Checked and based. No demand confirmed. I can't remember the last time I filled up my tank.

>>18968878
>NAT
Fatty NATty dumpety doo
I've got a perfect puzzle for you
Fatty NATty dumpety dee
If you are wise, you'll listen to me

Who do you blame when your stock takes a hit?
When markets dump worse than a Pajeet's shit?
Blaming yourself is a lie and a shame
You know exactly who's to blame

>>18967004
>>18969399
I tried to warn NATtys of the massive spike in put volume the other week