/biz/ - Business & Finance

Augur

>>18942786
>crypto

Shorting CDS swaps

>>18942804
6000 dollars
Maybe 7000. Im too lazy to look
>>18942807
"No idea."
Prices slightly over what they should be but Fed is a wild card

these are the only acceptable bags, only if at an average below march lows

Information Technology
AAPL
MSFT
V
PYPL
AMD

Communication Services
GOOGL/GOOG
FB
NFLX
T

Consumer Discretionary
AMZN
MCD
SBUX
NKE

Financials
JPM
BAC
BRK/B

Consumer Staples
WMT
KO

Energy
XOM

Health Care
JNJ
ABT
CVS

Industrials
BA
HON

300 EOW
325 EOM
400 EOY

What's this mean

I'm 670 kos
167 mro
2200 eman

Will I make it

MUMU IFFY UH
BOBO GOT A STIFFY UH

>>18942858

What are some indexes or ETFs I should watch to try and ride waves?

I knew this was a gamble, but fuck tomorrow is going to be painful

>>18942770
BUY BZQ

BUY BZQ

BUY BZQ

ECONOMIC CRISIS IMPENDING IN BRAZIL, THIS SHIT WILL SPIKE BACK TO $500 SOON

>BUY BZQ

>BUY BZQ

>>18942861
>BA
>CVS
I would consider removing from the list

Bagholding calls in MRO, PAA, and DHT. About $.50 away from itm on all three... don't think I'm gonna make it though.

I'm tempted to go all in on shorting SPY now... but the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

mood

>12% increase in 2 months
>equivalent to 1980 to 1995, 15 years
>equivalent to 2007 to 2012, all of the last great recession
>In just 2 months
Yep, certified fine and ok!

>>18942913
>I'm tempted to go all in on shorting SPY now...
see >>18942919 and repent

>>18942861
Look at that guy jiggle.

>>18942913
Yes, it can. Let's see what it makes of the worst jobs report in US history. That might be a good signal. Should be fun.

>>18942885
Donnu
Probably much more knowledgable people out there than me.
>>18942913
Shorting the SPY gets your ass whipped.
You are betting against Fed, the US gouvernment and US corporations on a market controlled by all three.
Its useless. Join the crab gang.
>>18942939
How much money did you lose on puts?

How do I long traffic jams?

bout to get my first margin call :^) hope they're gentle

>>18942963
has the FED ever been this strong? I feel like even bulls are surprised and now getting a little suspicious.

you got in right?

>>18942963
>I don't have an argument

Are dividends always quarterly? Are there any that have a higher frequency?

>>18942950
>Let's see what it makes of the worst jobs report in US history
the indexes will ignore it. until the credit market gets spooked, we'll probably keep crawling up. We need to see more bankruptcies, slow spending and muck of reopening, civil courts reopening & mass evictions, or oil futures shitting the bed so hard that the banks get scared.

>>18943016
dividends are always quarterly-- there are also special dividends that happen on top that are either twice a year or once a year from what I've seen

>>18943021
when does the FED stop printing? I heard this Friday but I never verified

>>18943014
Ima bull and after yesterday even I became a sceptic
>>18943015
I make no argument just like you make none. You might as well link Portugese language lessons and ask why FB gained today.

You trade the stock market, not the economy. You bet on rising stocks, not falling unemployment numbers.
If you trade stocks based on the economy today you will lose money. Simple as that. There is no correlation anymore.

>>18943043
The fed said they were going to continue with their liquidity operations until they were satisfied the economy had recovered

>>18943057
>simple as

Accumulate REFR

>>18943043
no wonder there is a shortage of toilet paper

>>18943082
I make no money by convincing you to trade stocks, not the economy or even companies. So I will leave it at that.

>>18943033
>dividends are always quarterly-
Go be retarded somewhere else.

>all in on gold stocks and gold miners
>green dildos all day

Imagine buying inflated garbage like Tesla, Apple, and Netflix.

>>18942770
OP UR SUPPOSED TO LINK NEW THREAD IN THE OLD THREAD SO I DON'T HAVE TO GO TO THE CATALOG AND SEARCH FOR IT

>>18943016
Realty Income pays a monthy dividend

>>18943103
>le stocks are not le economy meme
>I watched a youtube video and now I am smart

>>18943021
Yeah, I'm in the same boat, but I hope not. Seeing a gap up on Thursdays is just old at this point. Maybe the reality might start setting in with the jobs report, but I won't hold my breath.

>>18943043
They've been tapering their purchases the entire time. The front-runners are getting antsy over the lack of high yield bond ETF purchases, though, after which the Fed put out a statement reaffirming their commitment to those purchases through their SPVs. They've said that they'll maintain operations as needed, like >>18943058 said. But, that's a conditional, and it gives them the ability to stand down if they feel like underlying markets aren't in danger. The near-zero interest rates are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

This virus was a total sham and will be an afterthought by August.

Why shouldn’t we get a V shape recovery? Things are already going back to normal.

>>18942770
>tfw bought a call today to sell tomorrow
>tfw RTX
First time I've won.

>>18942913
I thought shorting means you sell. How do you go all in on something you're getting rid of? Wouldn't that be going all out?

>>18943106
Can you provide an example or two, please?

>>18943014
Many stock have recovered to Nov 2019 levels or even reached new aths. I didn't buy the dip. I've accepted that now. If I fomo in now I can basically gaurente anyone holding puts.

>>18943106
ah my bad just looked up monthly dividends

>unemployment was supposed to be lower
>beats estimates
>gap up, crab

>worst job report ever tomorrow
>already gaping up again

It is all so tiring, but my hands are diamonds

>>18943156
>destroy worldwide economic infrastructure and put countless people into unemployment
>back to normal next week!

>>18942963
I wanna join crab gang. Is Wendy's a good crab stock?

>>18943153
Damn -- might just be smarter to stay out of the market until they deem things are healthy again. Do you trust that they don't actually look at the stock prices? Or would it be possible to keep printing to ATHs?

I got fucked today, biz... and not in a good way...

>>18943149
Stocks are NOT the economy

>>18943171
>>18943106
Follow up question, how long do I have to hold a stock to receive dividends? Is it just 2 business days?
Is it a viable strategy to buy stock before they make their dividend announcement and then (potentially) sell?

>>18942894
why? corona?

>>18943181
lol -- I mean buying the low meant just putting trust in the FED -- I knew the FED was strong but not this strong lol.

how do you read a chart of a stock and find out if the price has strong resistance or not

anyone here that played or knows about payday 2 and the shitstorm the company had earlier with its CEOs fleeing taxes and vanishing into some shithole country?
i bought a fuckton of shares after it dumped to around $0.082. now it's at $0.20 and i've got a fuckton of money.
but i think it can get better. they have successfully reconstructed, and the game is still ridiculously popular. top 20 on steam right now, and reaching new all time highs in player numbers, just see here https://steamcharts.com/app/218620
the community surrounding it is absolutely massive. what's the downside here? if payday 3 actually becomes a reality and a hit, i could retire

>>18943230
The fed has already highly cut their injections since April. I think we are just seeing institutions in denial

>>18943236
You have to own the stock before and through the ex-dividend date.

>>18943021
once you realize this whole thing is a speculative credit bubble, it all makes sense. these zombie companies must default and go bankrupt. everything short of that is likely theft of all future generations.

>>18943043
The dollar milkshake theory is probably right, and we need to keep finding ways to spend the money we're getting from abroad. I'm also guessing that expansion in M2 has more to do with fiscal stimulus, not monetary policy. The FED is only concerned with keeping "markets functional." essentially, they only care about companies being able to buy and sell debt. the equities market is more or less an afterthought. These liquidity operations aren't necessarily super invasive with regard to the money supply. Again, we're dealing with a credit bubble. people feeling comfortable with the credit situation (rates at 0, debt based buybacks can continue) the prices will have upward pressure. The margins are all razor thin - highly evident in Q1 earnings flops, and that's why people are publicly bearish. it's very likely not a matter of if, but when. Even if we have infinite liquidity, few people want the debt. corps can hardly pay back. It's a waiting game for bobo's, and buffet is right on the money sitting on a mountain of cash. Everyone, globally, wants USD, and he has a big fat fucking pile.

>>18943224
I have 5/15 WEN calls so probably.

Hey fags, the Boeing Spaceplane got shown in the SPACEFORCE commercial. Buy signal from the government.

>>18943235
generally it is correlated though -- hard to have a strong company that doesn't make as much money unless it lays off its workers and still can operate (i.e. tech companies lol)

>>18943224
I've owned a few shares since 2009 and it's been consistent for me.

>>18943260
in denial? or trying to set up a pretty decently risk free fomo situation to dump on retail or other investors?

Several of the big tech monopolies can be seen as perpetual bonds. As the 10 year treasury yield goes down, so must the earnings yield of stock like Microsoft, meaning tech monopoly stock prices must go up. So this group setting all time highs can be seen as a bearish indicator. Also note that Wells Fargo (as good as any leading indicator on the economic pain still in store) is back down to its March lows. In other words, we’re definitely in a bear market.

>>18943223
Keep buying puts you fucking failure, I just started trading stocks a month ago and I’ll bet I’ve done better than you ever have, and I bought more today and am looking forward to juicy gains tomorrow. Futures are up a full percent right now you fucking work, just know tomorrow while sulking in misery I’ll be making easy money.

The bond market is signaling a deep recession, the energy markets is signaling recession, the metals markets is signaling recession, only the stock market - or should I say tech stocks - are saying happy days are here again. The coming debacle in those high-flying stocks will be of historic proportions.

every single day this week has been gap up overnight, crab throughout the day trending down, dump hard at close. when are they changing it up

>>18943300
Is it working? If it was, 100% of market movement wouldn't be premarket

I am not sure why a company like Tesla is included in the picture of tech companies, Tesla is a car company, with a car company margins. Sure, they make cars with an electric drive-train, and are working on self driving technology, so is every other major car manufacturer.

>>18943313
post your gains

>>18943335
They are the next enron

Technology companies earnings are inherently tied to the the health of the overall economy, a collapse in global economic activity is bound to hit tech earnings in the coming quarters; this will become evident once the sector reports Q2 earnings and warns about a flat 2H20 recovery. Overall this market rally reminds me of the 2008 March to June lull after Bear Stearns went bust, the market kept trading under the illusion that the subprime crisis was under control despite all evidence to the contrary. The FED can flood the market will liquidity, but its can't create revenue growth or earnings, without a fundamental improvement in the economy, this rally is doomed to failure.

>>18943016
I know OXLC does monthly divvys

>>18943016
Reit's are monthly

>>18943265
what happens if "only" 10% of companies go bankrupt-- the other 90% suck up the investment?

>>18942890
Are you going to hold?

>>18943313
starting to sound like late 1999 right about now

>>18943381
might as well at this point.

>>18943332
good point :/ most people don't even wake up that early lol

>>18943313
>newbie buys stocks for the first time during an abnormally long rally before a recession

I guess you think you're the next great wolf of wallstreet, lmao. I'll be here when you cry

>>18943335
eh it's not that it's a tech company or not, it's whether or not it can just eat every other auto companies' lunch and consolidate into a way larger company without killing its brand cachet

>>18943235
>>18943281
Except they literally are, lmao. Can you explain what a stock is?
>a share in a company
And how is a company valued?
>by its profits and potential growth
And how does it make profits or grow?
>by generating income via sales of good and services
And who buys goods and services?
>other businesses and individuals
And what happens when other businesses and individuals cannot afford the product?
>the company losses profits
And what happens when a company loses profits and cannot pay debts?
>the company goes into bankruptcy
And what happens to the stock of a declining or bankrupt company?
>they go down
And now you understand why the stock market is a lagging indicator of the economy.
>but muh priced in!
Nothing priced in, everyone is just guessing and the current price is the sum of those guesses
>but muh economic news doesn't correlate!
Because short term stock movements are driven by greed while long term performance is driven by company fundamentals.

>>18943354
unless the virus is fully contained soon (like Powell says)

Wow, look at the hourly s&p chart. It is constantly trying to crash literally everyday and only being saved by a gap up every morning

there was a girl in the line behind me at the grocery store just now
I think she was into me bros

>>18943378
I don't know. I wonder if the banks can actually manage losing that 10%. as >>18943354 says it. We're not going to magically materialize earnings. Q2 will be a complete slaughter, Q3 will miss our Q1 anticipaitons. From what i can see, there's far too much work ahead, far too much debt and drag, and far too little revenue.

>>18943426
based boomer investor

>>18943409
unfortunately fags like these never pipe up when they're down so we'll never hear from him when his unrealized gain turns to loss

>>18943275
>SPACEFORCE commercial

Kino.

>>18943426
>disproves his entire point in the last two lines
kek. go to bed

>>18943445
was there a girl in front of you in the line at the grocery store

>All index futures up over 1%
>Nikkei up 1.6%
Tomorrow’s gonna be green af boyos

We're gonna be fine. I don't think there's gonna be a 2nd wave this year, people are already getting used to using masks and keeping distance.

>>18943265
the riches could be sitting on the mountains of uninvested cash? that means deflation?

>>18943446
might be good to stay out of the market until the next earnings season :/

>>18943472
no :/

>>18943396
Of all REITs, why did you pic $MITT? I own some myself.

>US debt to GDP ratio is 117%
I mean I’m still buying SPY calls, leveraged bull ETFs and all but damn.

>>18943354
Not really. Modern tech companies aren't really tech companies. Firstly they're extremely diversified (is amazon a tech company or is it e-retail?). Secondly, their main business model is usually with governments, military, and other large corps, with ordinary users truly being the product. Those organizations have, for all intents and purposes, no budget limit at any time, this in turn means tech companies shouldn't negatively react to any regular disruptions. Finally, because tech is really a service and not a product, it doesn't have manufacturing costs per unit. Unlike other services, though, it costs nothing, or virtually nothing, per seat to provide. Thus tech companies roll in virtually pure profit, which in turn allows them to tailor monetization exactly as is most appropriate to maximize profit (with no practical limits on the solution simplex). This means they scale infinitely as demand increases, but can also scale to ridiculously low levels and still turn up significant profit.

>>18943426
>Can you explain what a stock is?
it is a promise.

>>18943471
>wow the stock moved up 15% today! That must mean the company value is also up 15%! Buy!
>oh no the stock fell 20% that must mean the company is dead and I should sell!
>What do you mean the company only moved 2% over the last month? I thought it was an amazing buy when it went up 15% and a dead weight when I sold it down 20%!

>>18943477
> using masks and keeping distance.
not in the red states though. it is all "fear mongering" there.

When I say Bull you say boi
Bull:

Quick tell me your next moon mission

>>18943230
We have no clue what's coming, or how much additional involvement is needed. There's nothing wrong with staying in cash or other less risky assets until we get more economic certainty and a clearer picture of the road ahead. It's a good time to do your DD on your picks.
>Do you trust that they don't actually look at the stock prices?
We'll see what happens.
>Would it be possible to keep printing to ATHs?
That much isn't their concern. If there's an impact on liquidity, they'll get involved. How far we rebound in the equities market isn't important.

>>18943265
>Speculative credit bubble.
It's a Catch 22 at this point, but the bubble needs to be deflated. It will hurt, but it will at least be healthy.

>>18943301
>>18943316
We've been seeing similar economic indicators since 2018 or so, with a reduction in small cap growth and more movement into tech. A direction comparison of VUG and VB is an easy portrait. This has been building up for quite some time, and these past two months have only exacerbated the issue.

>>18943477
>second wave of nothingburger virus
oh noooooo how will the world economy ever recover

>>18943580
ENBL, no it’s not a moon mission just orbit mission.

>>18943537
you dont get it. if the stock market doesnt represent the economy in the short term, than you cant say the stock market is the economy. the stock market is speculation tied to the economy.
if you really think the stock market IS the economy, then how do you explain the extremely high valuations of companies that have never made a profit? the stock market represents peoples predictions of the future more closely than it represents the present. as many a boomer has said, "investors are forward-thinking."
im guessing you lost a lot of money on puts ("the economy is shutdown! surely all stocks will instantly drop to zero!")

I'm just leaving this here

>s&p 2900

>>18943626
IT'S ALL FINE JUST KEEP BUYING THE DIP MY DEAR RETAIL INVESTOR

SPY will hit a high of 294 tomorrow and close at 287

I've got around a $100k portfolio, but it's 60% crypto, 30% physical gold/silver/platinum, and 10% gold mining stocks. Sold all my other equities late last year.

Is this based? Y/N

>>18943626
If you can't break resistance during market hours, just pump futures. Works every time, until market open.

>>18943662
wow that webm is more explicit than I was expecting

I'm gonna be honest I don't give a shit about your post

>>18943662
>crypto

>>18943626
how do i invest? robinhood is only showing the s&p 500

>>18943732
You need to get RH premium to get access to the S&P 3000

>>18942832
>I'm an investor
>portfolio is all meme shitcoin
gets me everytim

>>18943614
>you dont get it, if temperatures don't represent the the average temperature then you can't say the current temperature is related to the average temperature!
ok weird argument
>that depends on what your definition of "is" is
ok weird goal posts
>how do you explain insane valuation???
Because some people greed on short term gains while others are trying to estimate the companies actual value an with so many unknown risks with high potential upside its hard to tell what its price should be.
>the stock market represents peoples predictions of the future more closely than it represents the present.
Yes, thats what I said
>forward looking
That why we have 30% drops and 60% rallies, because the market is forward looking? Protip: its just people being greedy and making shit up and hoping they guessed right
>lost money on puts
You imply that you made money on calls and that makes you a genius, eh?

>>18943243
Too lazy to write a lot rn nigga, but brazil is fucked

t. Grew up there, speak portuguese and watch the news

>>18942885
you don't really ride waves with indexes
there are some meme level ETFs for wave riding but imo just find some decent quality companies on sale and some volatile stock that isn't meme level for short term positions
I wouldn't long anything rn, the bull boys will tell you otherwise but they don't realize the market is propped up on hopium huffing

>>18943495
>deflation
M2 isn't really your best indication for inflation. Money velocity & output will determine this. No one is spending, we have this retard level of demand destruction. if production hasn't proportionally decreased with the decrease in aggregate spending, it's deflation.

>>18943496
I only have meme plays left, desu. Some junk bonds are good. Cash is the way to go, unless you want to gamble on the drop.

>>18943605
>the bubble needs to be deflated
>tfw getting antsy
if we don't deflate it, life will keep getting shittier for another 20 years.

>>18943745
>misquoting me
fucking dumbass thinks the stock market is the economy. go back to ledit so you can complain about how the market is wrong. i bet you think futures ARE the s&p 500

>Brookfield Asset Management, the Canadian investment group that is one of the largest operators of US shopping malls, is launching a $5bn rescue fund for retailers that need extra capital to weather the coronavirus pandemic.

Bullish or bearish?

Sup fags

AIRLINE CHADS
we have made it

What about money markets? Don't know anything about them but sounds like a lot of investors are switching to MM. Are they safe and whats the current yield levels?

>>18942861
eh, you may want to revise your industrials
you can add a defense industry section but this is a decent list

>>18943776
Yeah velocity is really low, right now. It's not so low in the stock market and in terms of moving around wealth in that way though.

Even if overall velocity is low. We can still have a high supply of currency. I think people underestimate asset inflation due to TINA, interest rates, and this fact.

High supply, low "real economy" velocity can still inflate assets like the SPY.

Also look at what PE multiples are acceptable at these dollar-centered interest rates and worldwide interest rates.

>>18943537
You've made enough of an ass of yourself for tonight buddy, be sure to get some rest so you can argue with full energy tomorrow alright?

>A self-styled contrarian investor, Brookfield has a history of investing in out-of-favour sectors. In the aftermath of the 2001 terror attacks on New York, the company doubled down on its investment in lower Manhattan while other developers fled, making huge profits when the neighbourhood eventually bounced back.

>>18943814
Based. $1000/week investment for me. Felling good, but don't expect any gainz before August

>>18943426
>absolutely no mention of the multiple on future earnings that investors are willing to pay for the stock

fucking retard. Here's how it really works:

1) the world is awash in capital that needs to go somewhere as cash is essentially a 2%/yr tax on your purchasing power
2) bond yield are now increasingly negative worldwide, giving you little/no/negative return over the holding period
3) governments worldwide are now printing money at an astonishing rate, meaning even the principal you've elected to be paid back in is losing value at an accelerating pace
4) this means bonds are dogshit, and some degree of capital invested in bonds will need to go elsewhere
5) that "elsewhere" is likely equities since you can still get decent yields WITH the potential for capital upside instead of 60bps a year in perpetuity with no growth in US treasuries
6) as money floods into equities it drives up the price such that the multiple investors are placing on future earnings is higher, as the prospect of owning an equity becomes more coveted in and of itself

OKAY, BOOMER?

>>18943814
How? Bail?

>>18943827
AKA while velocity might be low in terms of

waiter -> haircuts -> bar -> bowling alley -> diner

It can still be high in terms of putting money in the market or moving it around.

With a "main street" low velocity we can still experience inflation in the stock market. Especially because the majority of investor money don't care about the price of soup or how the local club or bar is doing.

>>18943779
>reddit
Thats where the "le stock market isnt le economy" meme came from

>>18943840
>don't expect any gainz before August
I think tomorrow is going to be some hot shit. Shorts poured into airlines early this week expecting a freefall. They got 1-2% down days followed by today's pump. I think they're trapped and tomorrow the squeeze gets your dick rock solid.

>>18943814
AAAAAAAH I SOLD MY LUV CALLS TODAY AND ITS GONNA SHOOT UP BECAUSE OF SPIRIT

>>18943732
>>18943740
Big boys club.

>>18943859
>Bail?
no just turns out most people aren't gigantic faggots and aren't afraid of the shanghai sniffles

>>18943850
PE of 30x here we come on the rebound before interest rates rise. especially because of the disconnect between real economy and stock valuations. If they hold to mandate we get a long 0% interest rate world.

I am bearish on literally everything except the market and gold. The market is going to absorb most of the inflation from QE and drag gold with it.

>>18943879
>BECAUSE OF SPIRIT
wait did something actually happen i'm 80% memeing

>>18943890
>interest rates
>rising

kek, fed futures now pricing in negative rates btw.

>>18943886
>turns out
link?

>>18943850
Sounds like you are describing the current debt crisis. They arent investing because its a good investment, they are investing hoping it will save them from losing everything. Hint: Stocks are not immune.

>>18943873
I've been waiting for shorts to get fucked so I hope it does happen.

I want to put a few bucks into DAL to ride the hopium wave, especially since king boomer sold his holding so there is pretty much nothing else that can happen.
DAL seems to be the chosen one of the three, that is, the strongest one with good support

Anyone else thinking in the same lines?

>>18943873
We'll see. Most normies are refusing to invest right now. Most people on this board/reddit are stuck on muh bitcoin or muh MVIS (which got bogged hard today). Good for me anyways, the longer it's low means the more stocks I get to buy before it shoots up again.

>>18942863
It means your late.

>>18943924
No, they're investing because equities are now pretty much one of the last places you can earn a decent return, doubly so for the US

and there won't be a "debt crisis" if rates are 0/negative and the fed just buys the debt straight from the treasury and remits the interest.

>>18943908
Me too, same ratio of memeing/seriousness. They shot up 10% at close but since I sold my calls I didn’t care enough to look up why

>>18943923
Spirit Airlines filled just 17% of its seats in April as government restrictions to thwart the spread of coronavirus kept travelers home.

The outlook for May is much brighter, with the discount airline expecting flights to be 50 to 59% full, prompting it to reinstate more flights for early June.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/05/07/jetblue-spirit-see-signs-travelers-returning-coronavirus-restrictions-eased/3088134001/

TESLA SHUTDOWN WORLDWIDE

THIS IS THE CATALYST FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN

DIGITS CONFIRM

>>18943890
Interest rates are fucked. If it goes up, everyone basically goes bankrupt. Eventually they move it negative to continue to prevent the ever lingering bankruptcies until it eventually collapses. Its basically a death trap.

>>18943927
shorting is 1. immoral 2. straight illegal in some jurisdictions during major financial crises

>>18943958
tsla has very little if any impact at all on the broader market

>>18943958
this was known during market open and nothing happened
so shut the fuck up and stop spamming

>>18943795
optionsprofitcalculator says "why not both?"

Is it a bad idea to use muni/tax-exempt bonds as a form of savings, instead of a "high yield" savings account?

>>18943956
ok, thanks

>50 to 59% full,
and that probably means that some 1 to 2M americans will die from coronavirus.

>>18943934
I'm in on DAL. On Friday they were down 7% and I took out some $30 6/19 calls. Then I got gaped by Buffett's dumb ass over that weekend. But I'm still comfortable with the position so i'm HODLing

>>18943958
TSLA could never make another car for the next 30 years and it would not affect its stock price
It's a valuation from the cult of Musk

>>18943313
ayy, we got a lively hoper here

>>18943954
>printer go brrrr
If it were so easy to make infinite money, why werent we doing this the whole time?
Oh yes, because its a desperate last ditch effort to prevent catastrophe which has never worked except to make a few certain people even richer and more powerful.

>>18943982
BULLNIGGER COPE
>GET FUCKED
BULLNIGGER COPE
>GET FUCKED
BULLNIGGER COPE
>GET FUCKED
BULLNIGGER COPE
>GET FUCKED

YOUR LONGS ARE TRASH
THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT LEG DOWN. LIQUIDATE YOUR 5 FIGURE POORFAG ACCOUNT NOW

>>18943996
>and that probably means that some 1 to 2M americans will die
I gave you a link, now how about you give me one that proves the retarded shit you just pulled out of your gaping gay asshole for the 0.4% death rate MENACE?

>>18943960
Yes, the extreme heterogeneous nature of the "depression" aka poor hit hardest and small businesses turbo-fucked versus non-targeted aid and fiscal response.

Means all the winners win more. Gilded age. The people going deep into equities that people say seem overvalued aren't taking the environment over the next few years into account.

Equities aren't fucked over by inflation and super low rates.

>>18943224
NET Baybee

>>18943795
bearish as fuck, malls are dead and these retards are doubling down. Who the fuck sees value in real estate designed to be densely packed with retarded consumers right now?

>>18944004
okay dude you have fun with your little doom and gloom predictions. I'm sure you're smart enough to know that bears have been repeating the same tired fucking arguments since 2008 and were wrong for the better part of 12 years before finally getting their brief chance to shine again in March. Now a lot of people are desperately coping with the fact that they may have missed the bottom despite negative economic data and they're lashing out.

>>18943779
you sound like one of those fatties that sits around on /fit/ kek.

>>18943827
>It's not so low in the stock market
yeah, i wasn't really sure what anon was referring to. it seemed like he was trying to make some kind of general inference.

>>18943864
>AKA while velocity might be low in terms of...
It's a good note to add that there can be sector inflation and I agree that we're seeing a boatload of asset inflation. Cars and houses will hopefully deflate. Debt should probably be everyone's favorite tool, at the moment.

>I think people underestimate asset inflation due to TINA
I'm not sure what to think of that. We'll see what happens. Gold pumping has me feeling a bit good as a bear, but I really don't know what will happen with equities.
>PE multiples are acceptable at these dollar-centered interest rates
It's fucking bonkers. I'll sit in a high interest bearing savings account and CDs, kek

>>18943890
>If they hold to mandate we get a long 0% interest rate world.
spoken word policy is at least 2 years of 0 rates.

>>18943993
if you're not going to spend it soon, and there's low risk of default, you're probably good to go.

>>18943958
Unironically bearish on top of everything else. Thank God that I’m 90% cash and not mindlessly gambling or gleefully buying MM bags.

>>18944015
we don't usually get cringe of this caliber in /smg/, impressive

>>18943967
Do you want the markets to tank? Because that's what you're suggesting by banning shorting: a straight shot down to the bottom.

>>18944015

>>18943121
My favorite question I see on reddit is people asking if they should buy shares in all those. “But it’s going up!”

Yeah. At a rate of 5% a year. And you’re buying 5 shares at a time from based folk like us who bought in at the beginning and day traded the stock for three years before it ACTUALLY trended lmao

>>18944004
>has never worked
but we have never had real catastrophes before. it is going to be the first one ever maybe even worse than the great depression. an actual catastrophic event, possibly an extinction event.

>>18943982
>t. seething amerilard

>>18943467
a watered down Reagan
like pottery

Everything outside of tech or tied to the big 3 is still a trainwreck.

>>18944057
what does being a fat american have anything to do with this factual statement

>>18944046
how does shorting prevent that? you bet on the market to go down so it goes down and you steal money from the bulls so it continues to go down, right?

>>18943181
Don’t be so basic. I made $5k off ZOM today and bought it two days ago. $450 off MVIS and in bought in a day into the rally.

Who gives a fuck about lows. The lucky bears buy in when everything dips to historic lows, but time goes on. There’s still a fuck ton of money to make out here if you’re not an idiot.

Has anybody here ever actually worked in finance? You know why the big moves are pre/post market right?

>>18942770

>>18944029
>same tired fucking arguments since 2008 and were wrong for the better part of 12 years before finally getting their brief chance to shine again in March
>coping with the fact that they may have missed the bottom despite negative economic data and they're lashing out.
I-I'M GONNA... I-I-I'M GONNA ZZZZZOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

>>18944077
No but I did a lemonade stand with a buddy.
Have you guys ever sold lemonade? It was awesome and life was simple.

>>18943316
>The coming debacle in those high-flying stocks will be of historic proportions
the biggest ones are also the most overvalued ones because they get the biggest institutional pumps. meme level worth with very little backbone to many of these companies, worse than dotcom bubble imo

>>18944089
>linear chart

brainlet spotted

>>18943763

Feel like betting against a nationalist regime and its connected oligarchs is a mistake...

>>18944035
Thanks for the input, think I'll do that. Better to get 2%+ yield instead of the pathetic rates savings account have to offer these days

>>18944015
Lmao based
Bulls are kill

>>18944083

I wish I had a black crew to get crunk with

>>18942770
anyone here use multiple brokers? say what you will about robinhood, at least they allow me to buy and sell and buy immediately unlike my boomer schwab account which has some faggotry about mandatory 3 days to settle my sold shares before i can buy again, and when i bought too soon right after selling they locked my account. bunch of faggots

>>18944072
Shorting injects liquidity for people to enter and exit. If you ban shorting you ban all the people who are on the other side of the market. When there's less liquidity than anticipated that triggers panic sellings as everyone would be trying to exit their positions while liquidity is available. Obviously this is more related to investment banks than commercial investors.

>>18944015

3 edgy5me

>>18944077
Jews, of course

>>18942894
i did that 3 weeks ago and lost bigly i think i bought too early

>>18944144
TDA doesn’t make me wait after selling

Whats your WWIII stack

>>18942913
you cant time the market peaks and dips perfectly, just buy SPXS at a good price now when SPY drops to 250 in a month you will still make a healthy profit

Don’t ask me how I know, but I’ve heard the US is going to take military action against Venezuela sometime next week.

With this information (I’m about 80% sure) how can we profit off of this?

>>18944172
MNST

>>18944172
Shorting boomer warhawks that think WWIII will ever happen

>>18944183
>t. rtx bagholder shill

>>18942939

>>18944144
are you poor and trading on a cash account with schwab

>>18944111
not an argument. It's a credit bubble (not that it'll pop), and the downside on any time frame makes buying now absurd. If there's any fear that we'll have a credit choke or freeze, shit will get ugly. the odds of anon's catastrophe are unlikely but non-negligible.

>>18944183
How do you know?

>>18944183
people on /biz/ have been expecting something like that since last month, why do you think defense stocks are so popular here?

>>18943937
Yeah I’m thinking about buying MVIS again for next pump. Waiting a couple weeks.

>>18944172
U.S. Army contracts with Rip It, not Monster.

>>18944144
>retard doesn’t know what cash and margin accounts are

>>18944153
Is buying inverse ETFs considered shorting? Technically you are long.

>>18943958
Listen faggot. TSLA now is the dogcoin. It’s the coupon of reddit for online validation points

>>18944206
he said don't ask!!!

>>18944144
RH users are absolute idiots

>>18944203
I have 48k in my Schwab but refuse to enable kike margin, personally.

>>18944206
He met with Chavez

>>18944217
The PX always had pallets of Monsters. Rip Its were just drank with meals

Anyone have short positions lined up? Looking to sink a few K into something tomorrow to hold over into monday.

Suggestions?

>>18944194
WWIII is a movie meme that will never happen
proxy wars and subsurface 3D chess is future, why defense and revolving IT already are strong and will be getting stronger

>>18944183
Second wave of retired military boomers?

>>18944029
>there can never be a recession or depression again!
I was a retard when I thought "stocks only go up" but now I actually did research. Doesnt mean stocks are going down, but every indicator says they will. Just like in 2007, every indicator said shit was going down and people just pretended nothing was wrong until it exploded in their faces. Its becoming clear that companies have been fudging their numbers for the past decade and now its come to heel. Its not about doom and going down, its about looking at fundamentals. The fundamentals are: there is no money and companies aren't worth what they say they are!

>>18944053
What?


>>18944200
>ah yes, this is the perfect time to buy, said the coffee barista, stocks havent been so low in a long time, what a deal Im getting!

>>18944144
>Have big boy account for long term holds
>Have Robinhood account for meme shit
Easy

>>18944247
If you had a px while deployed don’t reply to one of my posts ever again kek.

>>18944225
When Italy banned short's it did not effect inverse etf's, so it's probably not considered a short.

Futures looking yum
4000 this summer

>>18944205
so what're you gonna do, sit in cash like a pussy and lose out to inflation every year? good luck!

>>18944237
you know your rh is a margin account if you don't have to wait for settlement right

you know you can have a margin account and not use margin right

Suck it lol

>>18944257
>I was a retard when I thought "stocks only go up" but now I actually did research. Doesnt mean stocks are going down, but every indicator says they will

I guess you've already forgotten the -35% drawdown we just went through over the course of a few weeks? Or is that not enough to satisfy your innate desire for destruction? 2007-08 peak to trough was only like 50-55% so it's not like we were that far off this time around. Also, the factors that differ between 2008 and now is that 2008 was a financial crisis led by the banks being overlevered and a fed that was slow to act. The fed was INCREDIBLY responsive this time around to ensure this didn't turn into a financial crisis and the banks are incredibly well capitalized.

Enjoy waiting the next decade in cash for muh dip to miss it again.

>>18944203
i have a margin account

>stocks go down over a literal nothingburger

I w-w-wish stocks would go down so I could buy m-m-more

>>18944278
I didn’t agree to those terms

>>18944273
thats what i do right now it just pisses me off scwhab wont let me use my money the way i want to

>>18944144
learn what the rules of a cash and margin account are you dumb retard

>>18944285
no, i'm watching the price action in my areas of specialty - financials and media related. I sold out of everything in mid January. There are a few divvy stocks that have done great and I'm cautiously buying in. Otherwise I'm happy to have cash when it looks like half of the shit I know has another 10 - 30% downside potential and only a 5 - 10% upside in the short term.

>Inflation
sorry anon, but I think all major purchases are currently deflating...

>>18944360
Ah yes so you're one of those people who thinks he's smart enough to time the market. Good luck with that.

>>18944286
retard here, is it standard for the broker to restrict trades like original poster was claiming on cash only?
I have margin enabled but will never use

>>18944310
I really hope your optimism is right. honestly i swing between your view and the depression view. its hard to evaluate a bubble while you're in it. At least we aren't built on near-fraud, like we were in 2008

>stocks have "recovered"
>when the russell is still in the trash
Its literally tech and the big 3

>>18944144
you’re incredibly retarded and should put your money back in your checking a count and stop trading

>>18944225
Page 106 of the prospectus details how SH, the -1X (inverse) ETF of the S&P 500 is constructed, including what investment vehicles they use to meet the goals of their fund. They should not be effected.
>https://www.proshares.com/funds/prospectus.html?ticker=sh&doc=1

>>18942770
Made $5,000 on ZOM

Moving to TOP tomorrow. Its finally hit a support at .14 and has traded over a billion in volume this week. I think it’s about to rally big.

>>18944254
>proxy wars and subsurface 3D chess
The future continues to be disappointing and stagnant, got it.

>>18944370
do you understand risk at all?

Noob Smallspec 350 ELO Zootopia Omega

I don’t know who these pajama traders are but god bless them. They go to work for me every fucking night

>th-th-this bull run is long in the tooth
>w-w-we need a recession
>s-s-stocks are t-t-too expensive
>stocks consolidate for literally 2 years
>I-I-I’m skurd

>>18944371
yes, cash accounts at any brokerage will have settlement time

>>18944400
it's a great investment opportunity because there are huge diverse industries that support all the movements happening on the board

but yeah, pretty boring if you're not seeing the game

>>18944417
>You think you do, but you don't.

Imagine being braindead enough to buy ANYTHING before SPX breaks 3k lmaooooooo

>>18944426
so they trust me more to not have settlement time simply because I was approved for margins (based on whatever financial checks are done for approval)?

>>18943967
You are a newfag trader. Ngmi

>>18943313
How fucking hard is this faggot trying to impress? Fucking hilarious. Yep, you go wolfie, you see things we'll never see. You're a bonafide genius... Just like mummy says

>>18944433
Checked

>>18943967
>straight illegal in some jurisdictions during major financial crises
are you investing in the PRC?

>>18944286
I have Schwab and you have to specifically apply for margin in addition to options 1/2/3

Nikkei 225 booming 2% today eh?

>>18944310
>dipped 35%
>rallied 60%
Yet every company is worse off, and every individual is worse off.
>PRICED IN
We are at the same price as last year when everything was golden, at the top of a legendary decade long bull run, nothing could stop the economy. We are at the same price now as all that, except with 20% unemployment, over 6% mortgage forbearance, and companies going bankrupt. How can the market have the same prices now during turmoil as it did during a boom?
>destruction
I don't care if these companies go up or down. That just sounds like cope to me, as if you are desperate to return what you lose.
>waiting for the next dip
Ah yes, this time its different, this time there cannot be a 2008 or a 2001 or a 1987 or a 1929. Pure hopium.

>>18944491
Yup. It's been one big positive feedback loop between our futures and the Nikkei. They started early again tonight.

>>18944489
Options 2 is pretty much a formality. I haven't tried going for 4 since I don't trust my hands. Same with activating margin.

>>18943993
>>18944124
I can't get over the fact that when this chick looks to the left, her right eye is blinded by her asian eyelids.

>>18944420
>stocks consolidate for literally 2 years
>I-I-I’m skurd

>be me
>be the FED
>damn, it's been 10 years since i stepped in and saved the market
>we got the rates away from zero
>we're two years out of the recession (2018)
>great inflation and unemployment numbers...
>things are going great, except this asset sheet is kinda big...
>"Hey uh, everyone, uh,, um, we're going to uh start SLOWLY unwinding our sheets that kicked up in 2008, i ho-"
>NYSE: FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
>uh..
>NYSE: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MMMMMYYYYYY INDEXES I'M FINANCIALLY RUUUUIUUUUIIIINNNEEED
and then they unwind less than a quarter of the damn thing, and basically fucking double it in a month.

>>18944449

Puss. You can find me and the rest of the bull bros at the playas club getn in on the ground floor

Could state bankruptcies fuel the next leg down?

>>18943958
NOOOOOOOOO NOT MY ZOOMER PUMP MY SHIT UP STOCKERINO!

Thoughts on $OXLCP?

>>18944590
That's the way it goes

>>18943958
kek

>>18944634
if by state bankruptcies you mean states like CA opening up too early because their coffers are drying up, having too little of a reboot in economic activity, getting a second wave, and then closing down again. Maybe.

>>18944604
Funny because it's true.

>>18944604
>"Hey uh, everyone, uh,, um, we're going to uh start SLOWLY unwinding our sheets that kicked up in 2008, i ho-"
>NYSE: FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
>uh..
>NYSE: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MMMMMYYYYYY INDEXES I'M FINANCIALLY RUUUUIUUUUIIIINNNEEED
Hilarious, sad, and true. We are fucked :)

>>18944634
No.

When does Gilead go back to green?

>>18944634
It will be a massive crisis that we wont understand until it happens. Im optimistic though. Fuck government leeches.

>>18944405
I understand the risk of missing upside because I fall victim to the innate human desire to focus more on negative things than positive things. I understand risk/reward was far more favorable below 2500 on the SPX than it was at 3400, which is why I deployed cash aggressively on this dip

turns out now that the chink flu has a laughable mortality rate and everyone REALLY got ahead of themselves with their projections. Go figure.

>>18944504
>every company is worse off

temporarily, yes. Some will go out of business, and others that are smart and/or well capitalized will take advantage and grow. Resets like these are good to accelerate the demise of certain companies and industries that had no business being alive in the first place. You need a washout to set the stage for future growth, so who gives a shit if some companies don't come back.

You're also ignoring the sheer mechanical aspect of what happens to equity valuation when risk-free rates come down 100bps. Go find any sell-side equity model and reduce the risk-free rate 100bps and tell me how much it juices the share price.

>We are at the same price now as all that, except with 20% unemployment, over 6% mortgage forbearance, and companies going bankrupt. How can the market have the same prices now during turmoil as it did during a boom?

Desperate bear cope. There is NOTHING to be gained from trying to fight the fed, or to posit that the market is wrong and you are right. The market is always right, and you can either accept that and become a better trader/investor, or you can let your cognitive biases keep you from participating in the upside in this market. The choice is yours

>>18944491
Oh. My. God.
Omega 13 Vivi Omega Ultra

Somehow the shitcoin shill threads were less annoying than the bag holder penny stock threads

>>18944604
I've heard this before, but I'm too retarded to understand what it means. Why does the Fed's asset sheet matter?

No booli

>>18944688
You realize they were doing both unwind and rate increase. The unwind was the equivalent of 2 rate hikes.

ZOM CHADS REPORT IN TO THE ZOM GENERAL
>>18944379

>>18942770
Still using robinhood?

>>18944251
uh, can I get a ticket please, anon?

>>18944722
>imply the reset has even started

>risk free rates
no free lunch

>bear cope
You are the one coping claiming that stocks only go up. Theyve been going up the bast month, and you're still trying to rationalize. Maybe you bought calls and think you're a genius.

>you are wrong, the market (ME ME ME) is right
oh yea dude, very subtle.

>doesn't address unemployment, mortgage, or debt crisis
>same prices during a devastating economic collapse as during a golden economic boom
Literal bull delusion. There is no way to justify current prices from ANY METRIC. ZERO METRICS. You can hang on to hopium all you want but its over. Just prepare your portfolio.

The market makers have tricked you, and you're playing the good little idiot for them while they laugh and drain your account.


>>18944763
They should have done more, they had years to do so. Now its too late.

so is rtx going to go to the moon?

went all in leap puts, watch this fucking bullshit clown not crash for an entire year just to spite me

>>18944788
>stock market is such a shitcoin right now that we have pajeet PnD generals

>>18944722
I don't think the individual or the market being "right" or "wrong" is the issue here. It's simply a matter of risk tolerance. At this point, with the metric shit ton of economic uncertainty coming down the pipeline, the upside is not guaranteed. And, if your time horizon is long, missing out on gains over the new few months isn't as much of an issue for the added benefit of having a safe margin that falls within your risk tolerance. History has precedence for much worse, despite the Fed's unprecedented efforts to prevent an economic seizure, and the downside risk is very real.

>>18944722
>I understand the risk of missing upside because I fall victim to the innate human desire to focus more on negative things than positive things
>everyone REALLY got ahead of themselves with their projections. Go figure.
Then since you're not worried about the meme flu, it would be easy to appreciate the risk of limited upside when we are 14% away from the ATH after the governments completely shocked businesses and brought the economy to a complete halt, and few corporations have guidance after their Q1 earnings, no?

>Resets like these are good to accelerate the demise of certain companies and industries that had no business being alive in the first place
>You're also ignoring the sheer mechanical aspect of what happens to equity valuation when risk-free rates come down 100bps
this is a confusing part about your stance. in essence, many of these corporations valuations are solely held up by these low rate loans which support buybacks. few will go under except shit that was already going under, assuming we keep this low rate environment and credit doesn't squeeze. We likely can't have an appreciable number of companies go out of business and have valuations go up.

>>18944749
in '08 they snagged up a bunch of mortgage backed securities (just clumped up mortgages) and T-bonds to get cash into the banking system. If they try to take put those assets back into the system, they're taking cash out, and it should raise interest rates. The one thing the FED is emphasizing right now is a functioning credit market. The sheets really don't mean much. It will likely only give a sense of how much deflation the FED is fighting. It seems like they're actually doing great.

>>18944684
That was oddly specific... hmmm

Eman son. Easy 3x I'm already 2x on it

OH NO
MUMU ARE YOU OK????
ARE YOU OK MUMU!???
AHAHAHAHAHA

>>18944951
Nothing happened sperg

>>18944715
>When does Gilead go back to green?
When they stop donating all their medicine they make....kek

>>18944951
>djia futures up almost 300 points

>>18944951

I’m not even sure people realize this is supposed to be to the tune of that alien ant farm song anymore

>>18944925
I think they were getting choked the fuck out by their pensioners + unemployment. I think they really, really need tax revenues more than other states, and have all of the incentive to open up early. Based on data from other countries, they will end up having issues. It's partially informed guessing, but too many lines match up for me. that's my prediction. The state and municipal bankruptcies (they will all likely loans from the fed) will likely just lead to increased taxes, which will eat at profits and savings, and a noticeable decline in infrastructure and quality of living.

>>18944988
you mean michael jackson you fucking pleb

>>18944399
ZOM isnt done yet

>>18944988
>alien ant farm song

>>18944988
I've been putting it to smooth criminal this whole time.

Make another smg stockfags

>>18945031
it is, alien farm is 3 white guys who covered smooth criminal apparently

>TSLA up after hours
did elon say something on toe rogaine?

>>18945048
No.

>>18945053
I see...

>>18945067
DUDE. WEED. Lets make Tesla... 2x 420.

>>18944672
Who is this sperm whale?

>>18945048
Okay


>>18945090

>>18945090

>>18945090

>>18945090

NEW THREAD

NEW THREAD

NEW BREAD

>>18943057
so, what should we be looking at instead? not the economy? then what?

>>18945053
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPgU30c6x4Y

>>18944035
nice pit on that one yeah