/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18904391
Heres to a new day anons. May we all ride the waves into heaven

Can somebody give me the rundown when it comes to divvies? I read something somewhere that you have to hold the stock for 60 days or you get taxed out the ass or something - is that true?

You cant just buy the stock, collect divvies, and then sell right away, right?

Stng call

Lr2 rates >100k a day
Many other lr2 companies traded crude and can no longer carry clean products exploding rates
"Never seen an order book so low (for available cpp tankers) and rates so high."
Nobody will make enough lr2
40 day lr2 voyage 178k /day "this is not an outlier"
New super cycle brewing in clean product tanker industry"

Finally those retarded bots got switched off

>>18904460
Depends on your tax locale

we finna gap up

should i buy more FRO rather than DHT?

>>18904496
Yeah, last great chance for DHT was yesterday

>>18904496
DHT seems to be first out of the gate and if this actually makes waves, should be the posterchild

Who here /onlyboughtbecausetheylikeships/? I think boats are so cool. vrrooommm

>>18904496
DHT getting its boost today most likely. Maybe other tankers get a boos too as the trend should be the same for all of them

FRO, TNK, and EURN got absolutely SHIT ON yesterday, so you can get them for a discount right now

>>18904548
Which of those three would be the best buy?

>>18904560
I'm bagholding all three but I like FRO the most. They tried to aquire DHT several years ago apparently lol.

Anons, our justification may be upon us. Weigh the anchor, set sail! It is time to depart on our journey through these stormy seas in pursuit of riches beyond our wildest dreams! Breath in that salty air, and get your sea legs because we are on a one way trip to treasure island!

>>18904541
Absolutely based no information investor. I too like ships, fren.

>>18904560
i've been holding all of them for like a month and it doesnt even seem to matter

they can all swing up or down 10% in a single fucking day, its crazy

>>18904541
then why dont you just get the tanker tracker app and not throw your money into a firepit?

>>18904541
I feel you bro, ships are cool. I wanna be with the ocean.

>>18904659
>Nippon Princess

Is this real? kek.

>>18904687
no lol

>>18904624
>firepit
Nigger please

>DHT only up 2.20%

whats going on bros

>>18904601
!!!

>>18904624
well so far I've made money but maybe the real stock market was the frens we made along the way.

>>18904659
vrooommm! i wonder if the captains quarters are comfy.

>>18904780
retail taking profit

>>18904780
Tankers always struggle at the start of the day. Where I been buying all my dips. Give it a bit.

>>18904780
People still don't believe it. Maybe we need Q3 earnings for the real wave to start. The market is a mess. SAD!

>>18904790
>well so far I've made money but maybe the real stock market was the frens we made along the way
Ngl it is comfy in /tsg/

Only up 2.9%

How...the Q1 was fantastic..the conference called was amazing..Q2 is looking even better..but we're still not mooning..bros.. I'm holding on but just barely

I've lost so much money on these tankers and I'm losing faith.

>>18904865
I for once actually belive in a stock (be it situational) and yet the market does not. I think people don't want the tankers to win because of what it would mean for the economy and American oil business.

MOTHER
FUCKING
TRUMP
this cocksucking market manipulating piece of shit needs to die

>oil was down -6% in futures and now it's only -2.45%

fugg this is going to hamper our gains

>>18904898
Did you buy NAT?

>>18904898
it will only fall more, better get rid of it now

>>18904922
>>18904917
Even if we open up tankers will make bank. God dammit.

>>18904935
Yeah but I sold out of NAT before it dropped too hard. Currently holding FRO, STNG and DHT

>>18904687
>>18904713
Kek. It is.
>>18904790
Very comfy.

>>18904917
this fucking asshole's twitter account is responsible for every single downturn i've gone through over the past month
i am down 66.74% and every single fucking bit of it is from when that FUCKING PIECE OF SHIT MANIPULATES THE MARKET

>>18904865
Give it until later. It is surprising honestly, but give it time. The stock is so good it has to win, a company cannot be doing this well and not make stock gains eventually it is an impossibility. Probably like what >>18904902 says. Buying tankers is making a statement, and it isn't a good one.

>>18904922
It is confusing. 20 million unemployed today to tack onto jobless. Bullish for oil!

loaded up on more FRO at open

>>18904922
Yesterday I read something where an analyst basically admitted the algos are retarded right now. Its basically >hurr durr oil up 5 cents me dump tankers

so as someone new to this is this a good time to invest in oil? How long will it take to return will it return?

>>18904971
It's pissing me off more than it should. Why the fuck is it going down still? WHY? I understand these are irrational times but come on man.

>>18904980
Don't know if I should get more tankers right now. Already balls deep in DHT at the moment. WHICH IS DUMPING LIKE A BITCH.

> STNG is down 1.8% on a 50% earnings beat

JUST

Okay, correction, wtf I didn't expect all the tankers to suddenly die like this. What in the ever loving fuck is wrong with investors right now. We have a company with more good news than anyone can handle and just pouring money everywhere going down, and DISNEY WHO MISSED EARNINGS AND SUSPENDED DIVIDEND GOING UP.

This is so wrong it isn't even funny. I am completely baffled right now as to what is going on. There has never been a larger discrepancy I have witnessed in my life right now than this current market and I am only angry because I can't buy even more right now and gotta suck on this loss atm.

>>18905026
This thread is betting against oil.

>DHT is now down --2.50% on the heels of their best quarter basically ever

FRO down -2.22%
EURN trading halted
OSG trading halted
TNK down -1.78%

lol fucking clown world.

>>18905055
GOD DAMN DONALD TRUMP
I'M NOT EVEN A DEMOCRAT AND I WANT THIS BOOMER PIECE OF SHIT TO ROT

>FRO sub 8
what the fuck
I really don't get it
This stupid ass fuckign market doesn't make any god damn sense I fucking hate it

I am financially ruined. I've been TANKED.com

I-I just don't understand...

>>18905086
>>18905055
how the fuck is this possible? is there any finance people here? what the fuck is going on?

God fuck these market makers and algos. They trade inverse WTI the past 3 weeks but when earnings blow it out of the water & oil starts going negative we go down? What the fuck is this shit?

dow tanking, oil soaring

donald fucking trump formed a task force and that means EVERYONE needs to sell EVERYTHING and immediately put it into oil

Based, told all you retards you were gonna get btfo. never trust threads where retards spam dog, cat or anime pics btw

>>18905045
>mfw FRO starts to dump even more
welp looks like I'm holding this for the Q2/3 divvies

Which do I yolo all in on? Fro or dht?

CHEETO HITLER AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

>>18905144
>you were gonna get btfo

based on what though? any company that reports its best quarterly earnings ever, regardless of whether it's a tanker stock or not, should see a nice stock boost

what exactly caused you to "know" tankers were going to get hammered?

>>18905144
They are acing it more than any sector right now. Earnings for Q2 are already secured and so is divvy. Buybacks on the table.

>Stock dropping like a brick...

Good call guys

>>18905157
>Which do I yolo all in on? Fro or dht?

neither, stay out of all tankers right now. this is coming from a current bagholder

>>18905167
what did cheeto hitler say?

>>18904961
>>18904898
How the market is reacting to tankers is tiring, but currently these companies are undervalued compared to their Q4 2019 valuation. Odd shit but it may be due to the implicit bear sentiment that's tied to tankers. Even if tankers are over-performing and undervalued people are on high grade hopium and unwilling to look at things rationally. I believe these stocks will reach new 52 week highs, but it may take them a couple days (maybe weeks). If you want out, get out, but tankers have good divvies and the next contract rollover date is fast approaching.

>>18905153
Don't know if I want to buy more right now. I just feel empty as it will drop for some reason again.

>>18905157
Logic is out of the window at this point. Don't know what is happening but its not good for tankers whilst it should be.

>>18905117
I don't understand neither. I truly do not. I am confused beyond words as to what is happening. Never have the fundamentals for anything I have witnessed be so strong, outlook so powerful, and then get bogged anyways. Yet Disney go up with suspended dividend. Okay.

>>18905175
>what exactly caused you to "know" tankers were going to get hammered?
The fact that /biz/ was collectively buying in, when will you guys learn?

>>18905230
Dude what are we missing? I'm down 2k just on this morning for literally no conceivable reason.

>>18905220
I am holding for sure. But I agree that betting on tankers feels like betting against America for many investors. The meme news made it seem like tankers are a one trick pony that ONLY do well when shit is hitting the fan.

>>18905234
/biz/ isn't collectively buying in. there's probably less than 15 of us all together
everyone else is shitting on it and it's all turning on FUCKING TWEETS by a fucking MARKET MANIPULATING FUCKFACE COCKROT BOOMER

Is this a sign?

Are they trying to tell us something?

>>18905220
we're not going to get the divvies because we havent been holding for a long enough time

MY ASS IS BLEEDING

>>18905234
I made nearly over 2k on the tanker trade during the negative oil crunch. Stop acting as if tankers didn't work lol.

>Bought DHT and NAT calls last week
>Nothing but losses so far
I thought tankers were gonna make me rich bros

>>18905275
how long do you have to hold for divvies?

>>18905263
As soon as i saw the first /tsg/ i knew this shit was gonna tank

there is no bottom

Don’t be mad it’s going down just be glad you’ll be picking up these stocks for a discount. Just be patient. Our time will come.

STNG EURN gang

>>18905275
We are, ex divvy date is later in May.

>>18905294
2 business days i was wrong but it's still not a lot unless you own thousands of shares

>>18905298
Jesus Christ it just keeps going down. WHY? This makes no sense at all. I lost like 200 euro this morning alone AFTER GREAT EARNINGS DURING A FUCKING CRISIS.

>>18905250
We missed this...Cheeto nigger is doing everything he can to keep boomer market up. He probably has a task force working with algos to boost companies he likes rn. And oil tankers are not it apparently.

>>18905358
Oil companies are also down so...

>>18904998
Probably got conditioned for a bullmarket

im down 20 grand and lost my son's HRT fund

yeah i'm not selling for a loss. i'll just hold for divvies

>>18905220
This. Hang tight lil' niggas.

Stng call concludes that they are making money hand over fist and will do so for the foreseeable future thanks to low competitors and delayed builds in clean product market.
>dumps 10%

>>18905388
Yeah, but they have a REASON to be down. Its oil during an oil glut lol. Its just ridiculous that oil tankers, which profit from a crisis like this, are down even further than big oil.

I don't give a fuck im holding this retard shit, oil is gonna shit itself again when the june contracts actually get close to expiring

>>18905388
Then why the fuck isn't it going up????

>>18905263
Fuck this general and fuck the anime posters shilling this shit. The idea started off on the right track with oil anon giving us crumbs about things to come with tankers and he was right, but it didn't have to end like this with you people brought in the weak hands and fomos

>>18905349
As the crisis alleviates tankers will drop. Tankers only went up when oil was fucked and everyone was saying to buy tankers because they would moon due to oil storage. If people feel that things (corona, and oil) will get better then tankers will drop. I hope you guys weren't hoping for tankers to moon because they never would.

>>18905471
oil is STILL FUCKED

>>18905234
Kek. I was holding tankers prior to the neg. oil. I went all in after realizing how profitable these things could be.
>>18905275
I was planning to hold for a couple months (at least Q2), so i'm sorta unfazed by what's going on right now.
>>18905298
They only profitable industry gets raped when they have great numbers, go figure.

>>18905457
Every YouTuber also told people to buy. Fucking Cranmer got everyone to buy. How the fuck does this happen?

I am losing. So much money. What the ever loving fuck. An extreme amount of money. What the actual fuck, now I am pissed. I am pissed beyond belief. Are hedge fund managers non-existent right now? How the FUCK are they not adding this to their portfolio?

I know these rants are tiring, but this is by far the biggest dope moment I have seen this market take, worse than rallying 2k points on enormous unemployment or earnings drops. This MUST, absolutely MUST come up. How can rich people not be eyeing this going "wow, I can make so much money."

>>18905471
Did you even listen to the conference or see the data? The oil crisis isn't ending. In fact full capacity storage is sought to be reached this month. contracts are secured too. There is nothing but the bestest and goodest of news for them. Nothing. Makes. Sense.

>>18905471
>As the crisis alleviates tankers will drop.
TO NEW 52WK LOWS?!?
How does that work?
Explain.

TANKUS ANIMUS GIVE ME BACK MY MONEY!!

>>18905530
I only have the stocks so I can hold as long as I want. I think we will rally again but yeah, might take till Q3 earnings when other sectors will do even worse than they do now.

And no the "opening up" meme does not apply. Demand for oil will stay low and production too high. We might not see negative prices but sure as hell close to it.

This is hilarious, also love this delicious cope that it's drumpfs fault or muh clown world meme because they beat earnings so obviously the price should go up. You guys are so fucking stupid and you deserved this

>>18905117
20% of DHT shares are held by insiders
And 69% held by institutional investors, which means it's traded by algorithms that run on TA. The insider holdings are surprisingly high. Perhaps they PnD'ed. The remaining 11% of shares are held by suckers like us, and since we already bought and hodl we have no effect on price.

Does it feel like big short when mortgages were defaulting but the market was pumpkin?

The market will correct itself. It fucking has to

Already lost half the amount I lost yesterday in an hour today. All hail tankers

>>18905599
>might take to Q3 earnings
I need an explanation as to how even this irrational market can be this irrational.

>>18905624
How are institutional investors not overriding to add this stuff? How is no one adding it? How can you NOT? If this market is nothing but pure algos trading amazon, microsoft, and other shit while everything is predetermined, why do we have a market? Do company performance not matter? Does outlook not matter? dividends? anything matter?

This is it, they pump and dumped and entire industry. We got Bogged bros.

>>18905601
stock price is based on the totality of future dividend payouts, so yes, theoretically, the stock should go up because dividend payouts increased.

so yeah

>>18905601
Ok tranny

>>18905624
Could it be that thos algos misinterpret the financial results and market and just pump out sell order on sell order?

>>18905670
>irrational market
Don't know but this is a curvebal I really did not expect. Would like an analysts opinion on why a stock takes a nosedive after good earnings, better prospects and high secure divvy payouts. It just doesnt make sense.

>STNG
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

/biz/ truly is the best board. Every board has its fair share of brainlets, but on /biz/ you get to watch them lose money!!!

could just be because almost everything is dropping right now while trump manipulates the oil market up
eventually reality WILL kick in
trump isn't going to be able to tweet oil into ACTUAL demand. the most he can do is promise it

What most people fail to understand about algos is that their main objective is counter the plays of the retail traders. They don't give a shit about the market.

I AM GOING INSANE!
The more I read and investigate. The more tankers make sense!
I can't see a flaw anywhere that could justify these prices.
They are so fucking low. FRO is almost as low as it was during the Corona crash!

A just keep doing DCA all over this. There is no reason to sell other than, they are still dropping...

>>18905761
So you are telling me there are no actual big buyers? Really? How? There isn't a better deal for what you are getting in the entire market, and it isn't exactly a secret.

>>18905670
>>18905712
Something like 80% of the total market is Algos. Which is why everything trades the same most days. Price, volume, momentum graphs look similar for everything intraday, across the board. DHT and ATVI will trade roughly the same today, but one is -6% and the other is +6%

>>18905808
It seems to be following the DOW right now.

JUST

>i no get it, profits gud, why go down? sum1 xplane dis to grug
The only thing that matters is the price of oil. The higher oil rises, the less likely it will be stored at sea. You guys really have no ides what you're doing

>>18905747
crude oil wti is still down genius

>>18905908
>mus b algos

You all fell for a meme.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-30/as-oil-tanker-rates-dive-before-opec-cuts-owners-stay-bullish

>>18905823
Looking back, I see a few $8 call sweeps back in April.
That means the big buyers already had this idea before us.
That means they bought for the short term gains, as on paper company like DHT is not longterm profitable.
Big buyers pumped it to $8, trigger sold their calls ITM and got out.
They were valuing these years out, while we are forward thinking just a few months.

>>18905908
Simpleton, tankers don't directly inverse the price of oil you fucking moron. If that was a direct relationship tankers should have been worthless prior to the neg. prices, and have been worth hundreds during neg. oil. What is going on right now is an irrational market dump, pure and simple.

>>18905908
This isn't correct. Oil is down today and so are tankers.

>>18905976
Old news. Those 10 million barrels don't do shit for the oil glut. We are still overproducing and the floating storage is not even used that much right now while it will be in the future.

Also realize that their tankers operate on the spot market for 100k per day (see their slides) which is still absurd compared to OPEX of about 8k.

Everything, including their earnings and prospects points to the fact that this is a solid investment.

>>18905891
Kek, welcome to the club I guess

>>18905908
STNG makes money regardless of crude prices right now and for the foreseeable future. They still dumped

>>18906030
If you read it that’s what it says.

The title of this general is true, i'm going to hold these fucking tankers until I die or until they make me money. Nothing will shake me out. Nothing. I will hold until my hands are diamonds.

>>18906008
>im not wrong, the markets wrong
Kek cope
>>18906010
It was up 20 fucking percent yesterday. Sentiment is oil is rebounding

What to do now?

>>18906073
rope

>>18906065
Well we gonna see who actually needs physical oil pretty soon. Muh country opening up cant fox that

>>18906073
Keep buying

>>18906073
capitulate tankie

>>18906005
Also our mistake was thinking that the earnings would be the catalyst, while turns out "negative oil = pump tankers" is already in Big Money's play book.

Plan moving forward is to collect above average dividends, sell covered calls, and watch out for more oil shenanigans.

Don't get emotional about it.

>>18905910
see if you can spot the moment oil was in freefall and trump drove it back up

>>18906176
He really is fucking with the market.

>>18906073
I am holding. Not much to lose now and as I said: I believe in the business model and I like the sector. We'll see when the economy "opens" up who will have the last laugh. I don't think we got duped but I feel like some weird shit happened which - coupled with this clown market - just made this day what it is.

Might buy a bit more even at some point as I think the stock is undervalued.

Beginner investor here
>Made the rookie mistake of going in too hard one thing.
>Bought the top, assuming it would continue to go up.
>Everything crashes.

I just plan to hold on and see what happens. I'd imagine we've still got time for good news to bring things back up. If I break even, I'll consider it a good deal for the lessons learned.

>>18906205
Yeah I felt the same way I felt now when the sp500 hit new ath late Feb after a pandemic was raping china. I think I'll have the last laugh I just cant average down any more I'm too exposed.

bros :(

>>18905055
It's all irrational. We were at all time highs in February when all signs pointed to imminent global economic collapse and when it finally started to tank people were somehow caught off-guard like they couldn't see it coming a mile away.

DHT
$0.35 dividend
$6.49
5.39% or 21.5%

>>18906205

i'm not gona buy more but i'm gona hold what i have. at least dividends from DHT will basically increase your share price by +.35 / share

DHT dividends are 35 cents a share this quarter, so just add that to the stock price and that's what your real value is

Bought the dip, 13000 shares now

>FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS
SAY IT WITH ME

ill wait till it drops a dollar more

NEVER FUCKING SELLING

>>18906225
Same, am also an starting investor. Took two evenings reading into this shit, analyzing the companies from CEO's to the books. Finally was confident and got DHT faaar to high (expecting the rise would start then and there) just for it to drop like a brick. Dollar averaged down and now I am here at an average price of 7.20 so thats okay.

Lot's of lessons learned indeed. But lets see what it all brings.

>>18906364
Sold MRO at the bottom, and bought ET at the top as well. Fuck me, I need to get the hang of this. For me it's now building up my cash reserves because I trust this market like a Thai hooker. When it goed down it will go down hard and fast, DonDon won't allow a slow bleed.

What are the best oil companies to buy?
PLEASE! PLEASE! TELL ME! I'M LOOKING AT BUYING MARATHON OIL CORP, BUT I'M NOT SURE IF THERE IS A BETTER ONE.

>>18904391
Hey anons its been a while.
I've been busy with tests so I haven't had time to pay attention to the market for a week now(my positions did real well until the tanker peak and they've been going down since).

I have a very short window before IRL obligations reel me back in. So a brief rundown on what happened and what it means.
>Tankers finally moving huge,
>Gains gains gains.
>Normie business media talking about it
>NAT hits $9 then goes down massive, still up for the day no one notices
News came out that day that some tanker got shot off the coast of Syria. Nothing more then a spook so who cares.
>Next day
Russians actually announce they will actually be doing cuts(previous they were effectively using an accounting trick to "cut" without altering the numbers). Total effect 1.3 mbpd(less then they agreed to in OPEC but a massive shock to the market).
We had lower then expected inventory buildups last week of April the Russian news is mostly why.
A few reminders:
>Entering this month we have X < 300 million in worldwide storage left(even after you account for better then expected inventory buildup during last week of April).
>The Rystad prediction as of last week btw for demand in May was roughly 20-22 milllion destroyed, combine this with the now supply cuts for a rough -(9~11) net average over the month(after Russian cuts are added into the equation).
Fast forward to:
>~2 days ago
Goldman releases a report here is the general gist:
>Goldman is very bullish longterm
>Supply has been suppressed due to cut exploration and drilling not just in shale but also in every variant of oil extraction
>They see supply capped shorterm at below pre-crisis levels whereas demand will recover
So far nothing new most people understand this.
>End result supply shortage we will start eating into storage
Now this would happen eventually inevitably, the only question was when. The reason Goldman so heavily moved the markets was:
1/2

>>18906304
>FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS

Unironically continue to believe in these stocks, willing to see it through. No tears and diamond hands now, sweet anons.

>>18906449
IXC ETF

>>18906451
Welcome back OilAnon, I've missed your posts.

This thread is hilarious.

Of course the market doesn't go all in on tankers because of two good quartals. Because actual investors know that shipping rates will go back to normal. You idiots believe that people are going to pay through the roof for oil storage for the next years. Won't happen because oil producers can't afford this in the long run. The supply side is already adjusting, output is going down.

There is some moderate benefit for tanker companies because they can use this unexpected extra revenue to pay off some of their substantial debt. This will make them more profitable and maybe the stock will be somewhat higher than pre-crisis levels. You're lucky if tankers beat the market by a few percent in the next few years. But you guys believe it's going to moon (5x or whatever) because of two good quartals. Fucking idtiots.

Also: If oil demand stays low for the next few years this will result in less demand for oil transport. Go figure the consequences for tankers.

>>18906480
I am willing to wait years at this point

>>18906304
>>18906480
>>18906582
This is hilarious

>>18905272
Shit shit shit

>>18906555
Dropping after good results is another extreme to mooning for bad results or x2 because of 2 good quarters.

we all got fucking railed by DHT anon who was a fucking liar and trump who is a cocksucking market manipulator
nothing more to see here
we dead now

>>18906598
Within 2 quarters I have my current losses back in divvy alone

>>18906626
The plan was/is good

>>18906607
>Dropping after good results is another extreme

It's probably because a lot of people where in for short term speculation and are anxious to take profits. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes up again. It's not going to moon though but that's the reason most posters ITT bought in in the first place.

>>18906702
What's the point if it doesn't moon? They are making like three times the normal money why would it not moon?

>>18906624
>divvies!
Enjoy holding those bags for eat least half a year

>>18906702
Before a substantial divvy? When the next 2 futures contracts could possibly drop to single digits or zero?

>>18906647
i've got worthless calls that i wish i could just fucking delete
so they'll serve as a reminder of "the plan" until they expire worthless

NAT will pump. Manipulated spook ass market. Paper weak handed faggots

>>18906451
paging for ur next rely dis gotta be gud. all welcome back

>>18906774
On several brokers NAT is the only tanker stock available.
That's why it seems so popular despite the company being shit.

>>18906451
Welcome back and eagerly waiting your second post.

>>18906816
Why is NAT actually shit though? I don't get it. I got DHT, FRO, and NAT and you bet I am not selling NAT at a loss.

I've now lost 30k on tankers

>>18906937
Pics or it didn't happen

>>18906717
>why would it not moon?

Because the results from these quarters probably cannot be replicated in the future. The market is forward looking.

>>18906967
they've literally already been replicated in the first part of Q2

>>18906967

Indeed, but the large infusion of cash should help with current financials

>>18906967
hasn't a moon happened several times before during situations like this?

>bought more tankers just so the positions are divisible by 5
this pleases me even if everything dumps

>>18906967
actually DHT pretty much guaranteed it was going to automatically have a stellar Q2 because 2/3 of their fleet are booked on long term charters at a rate that's like 4-5x the normal rate. lol

literally it was all good news for the next quarter guaranteed and the stock tanks -6% on the day. lol

I'm so fed up
fuck it
115 shares of FRO average price 8.82
52% of my portfolio
I can't watch it anymore
I'm just going to forget about this shit until next week
Cause it's just killing me today

>>18907114
Literall yes, during certain cycles tankers would moon from spot rates doubling. No idea what makes it so different now, especially considering this is the worst contango we've seen in history.

>>18907003
I meant Q1 and Q2 when I said these quarters.

>>18907215
>No idea what makes it so different now

>>18907140
based

Remember /maritimebros/, a captain goes down with his ship! Earnings tomorrow for TNP & INSW pre-market, don't forget. Stay comfy.

>>18907200
I closed out of my trading windows/apps. Just gonna enjoy the day/week with sunshine, fresh air, and exercise. Outside of perusing this board with morbid curiosity I'm done staring at big line until the oil roll.

>>18907289
I really fucking hate rich people and market makers.

>>18906451
BTW last month Goldman thought despite OPEC efforts crisis was still on(but bullish for 2022 possibly 2021 depending on conditions).
>They(Goldman) think it happen by the end of this month
>They think by the end of this month supply and demand pass one another despite supply decreases basically leveling off this month
As in Goldman Sachs is predicting a recovery of roughly 20 million in oil demand over this month. If Goldman is correct that would mean we miss hitting storage capacity by the smallest of increments(whereas if we hit storage capacity and still have a surplus[if we have a deficit then play is over] after reopening i.e. by months end the tanker play is still good).
East Asia consumption btw is down ~4 million in April.
Europe ~5 million April
North America ~7 million in April.
The rest of the world accounted ~12 million in April.
With bits and piece downward(these are mostly rounded up slightly) about ~1 million between them.

Now I'm waiting for Rystad's report to make my call on this, mostly because I look at Goldmans numbers(btw I've and while the longterm case is solid the shorterm case.....)

Let me put it this way we have a tendency to attribute everything to be about ourselves and our own countries. The leftists will say its something to do with nasty racism the reality is simply proximity and love of home. Love of home and that which is close is a decent an honest thing, nothing wrong with it in most cases. In this case however don't let it blind you:
1) Reopening will not be a full one(mass unemployment, business going bust lowering consumption, supply chain disruptions, manufacturing disruptions, social distancing changing peoples consumption habits, lowered airline traffic at least short and midterm).
2) There is roughly the amount of demand destroyed in the rest of the world(minus East Asia) as there is in NA and Europe combined.
3) Not even Asian demand has fully recovered nor is it expected to even by Goldman.
2/?

Just cut my losses and sold my DHT I bought right on the fucking peak of 8.1 like a fomo faggot

>>18907396
The better the earnings, the more we sink! Hoorah!

>>18907442
RIP in pieces

>>18906451
>>18907434
Which means:
i) We will reopen this will raise demand as expected mostly due to increased road traffic.
ii) This will mostly effect NA and Europe possibly a few other areas.(India is a big one to watch here) their consumption goes up but not fully.
iii) African and Middle East(outside of Israel and maybe Turkey) countries probably wait this one out[in terms of reopening] relative to NA and Europe due to concerns over their poor healthcare systems. This has an extremely significant floor effect on the demand rebound. If India also chooses this path even moreso. If anything the third world seems like what to watch here simply because they will be needed to fuel a massive part of this rebound(without them Goldman is wrong).
iv) Supply decreases at least within this year are about leveled off by the end of this month at about 12.5[Per Goldman but about 3 million of that can be turned back online in a month so will follow oil demand rest is oil supply] million(from precrisis levels due to OPEC+ cuts and non-OPEC+ cuts). If markets recover(Goldman prediction) supply will lag upwards behind demand until at least end of 2021. If demand fails to recover sufficient for supply to pass demand we still get the storage apocalypse and we probably get tankers soaring again.
Most of this demand destruction is outside the NA Europe and East Asia.
None of these areas are fully getting back online this month period. The only way for Goldman to be right is if the rest of the world category is also opening en masse this month along with Europe and NA. Even then air traffic will likely lag behind other demand gains.

We are talking about an increase in oil consumption worldwide that represents ~20% of normal consumption. Which also demands a secondary question, will we be getting a mostly V shaped recovery?
Because that seems to be what Goldman is predicting for oilmarkets.
3/3

Was here last week
Heres an update
>>18907399
Dont miss out /biz.

>let me know if im autistic

>>18907474
Huzzah! It's not a loss until you sell anon, give it time.

>>18907564
It is if you're holding calls. Which expire on the 15th...rip

>>18907442
Hey I remember that thread when we shilled you. Should have kept at least till the divy date man

>>18907532
yeah that's what the people in this general really want right now
another "hot tip"
fuck off

>>18907396
>More earnings
My god. And after 3 positive earning reports in a row people aren't buying expecting the next 2 to also be positive?
I am very, very tempted to just sell off everything else I got and dump it all into tankers and say fuck it during this dip. This is too unbelievable, we are returning to our lows. There is no possibility we can go below our 52 week lows made when business was bad when business has never been better, right? Right?

>>18907434
>>18907513
So there actually is a chance someway somehow all of a sudden demand ends the crisis? Am I reading this right that the worst oil crisis ever might actually end at the end of the month? Despite OPEC cutting half of what was intended, the supply glut happening pre-corona, and reopening not being encouraging to gas usage? I don't understand how these numbers are telling this story and what changed unless I am misreading or missing something.

>>18907590
B-but futures aren't until 19th? Oh bother.

its over... earnings will not save us, nothing will...

>>18907442
I remember that most anons, including myself, told you that buying at 8.1 seemed too high with very little upside and a shit-ton of downside.
What I didn't expect is for tankers to take a dump to the level that it is now. I'm probably going have to buy 200 and 100 shares of FRO at a cost basis of around 6.71 and 7.5 from my ITM puts.

Just bought 20 shares of both STNG and DHT. I’m a poorfag but convince me to buy more.

I went from 5.1k to 2.1k..and the worst part is...most of that 2.1k right now is made up of calls. Only 600 bucks in DHT stocks. The rest are call options on FRO, STNG, DHT, and TK TNK. Bros, im financially ruined.

>>18907822
lol

>>18907813
If the amount of suffering and rationalizing in this thread dont convince you...check the archives

>>18907822
Dude it’s only a 3k loss. That’s one month of wagecucking for average American. At least you tried.

>>18907822
Based as fuck. You guys are retarded. I mean just look at who you're keeping company with in this thread lmfao, these people are reddit tier dumbasses

>>18906520
It's been a while, how have you been holding up fren'?
>>18905457
If Goldman's report is correct then I was wrong.
You can make your own conclusion, I will probably be making mine based on the upcoming Rystad report for this week.
If Goldman is wrong then barring the play being time sensitive hold. If I am wrong its a question of how to safely exit the positions with minimized losses.
>>18906205
>The economy "opens" up
People fail to appreciate that we likely don't roar back as expected. There is real economic damage here(talking economy wide now not oil markets). Question is multifaceted:
a) We get recovery.
b) We get a weaker then expected recovery by a lot due to the damage done here.
c) The entire market still in bulltrap mode we get market wide collapse due to something popping the longterm debt cycle
This whole business makes me uneasy very very uneasy.
>>18906808
It's been a while friend.
>>18906862
Post is done.
I think there are three meta things for us all to consider as it relates to the market rn:
1) The oil/oil market obviously(both b/c of our positions in it but also its wider importance as an indicator).
2) Whether this crisis pops our long term debt cycle/the nature of the recovery.
3) Will some black swan(say the virus itself) force us back to confront 2).
Overall the sentiment one hears from the hedge fund types of unease is totally understandable.
Have you been doing well outside this market madness anon?

>>18907640
i was looking for an opinion and discussion, not someone as fucking retarded as you.
holy shit, i feel sorry for you anon. i read your posts here..
Please dont short t

>>18907813
You will learn the value of patience.
Others will fail.

>>18907889
Guys on macrovoices think the market is reading the data wrong and there is much less demand for physical futures in june and july than is currently being traded via paper.

>>18904969
if its that predictable how come you keep missing out?

>>18907114
This was the "moon" in 2014/15. FRO indeed more than doubled when oil prices collapsed but that was just because it had fallen to a record low in the previous months. DHT only moved from 6 to 8 during that period. Both stocks fell again later in 2016.

HOLD FAST AGAINST THE STINGING BLAST, THE WORST IS YET TO COME

FOR AFTER WE BEAR THIS TREACHEROUS JOURNEY, WE SHALL FACE A SETTING SUN

OUR TANKERS WILL HOLD, OUR STOCKS BE SOLD AND OUR POCKETS WILL FILL WITH GOLD

BUT FIRST WE MUST STAND TOGETHER, AND FACE THIS TERRIBLE COLD

>>18907947
But will that be in time to save my $STNG 5/15 20C? Probably not. Roll over is 20th so I'm fucked.

>>18907937
>ID
>joo
Lmao he will learn what it's like to hold worthless bags and forever delude himself that it was worth it

>>18907889
>It's been a while, how have you been holding up fren'?
Trying to read as much as I can on oil markets/storage + geopolitics. Thanks for suggesting the Rystad reports, I've been following the weekly releases.

I told you it might not happen on DHT earnings.
I told you the sure thing already happened last month.
I told you that buying into tankers now is betting on the length of the downtrend.
I told you that oil is a global market not a national one
I told you that all tanker stocks are riding a retail retard FOMO from last month started by Cramer/Youtube/NAT

Trump is propping up spot prices so everybody doesn't lose their shit before futures roll over. Surprise surprise... oh wait, we do this last month?
UBS and Goldman revised their oil price predictions based on supply cuts, predicting that Brent is going up to $43/barrel by EoY and $55/barrel by this time next year. Surprise surprise... oh wait, didn't we do that last month too?

Oil tankers are an oil demand play. A GLOBAL MARKET has generally relied upon an inelastic demand for oil. That demand has been cut significantly. It doesn't fucking matter if a few nations "reopen" as a policy if that demand doesn't return.

Bigwig numbers assume a lot of silly shit:
>When corona policies are over in the first world everything goes back to normal including road and air traffic (it wont)
>China's recovery numbers are reliable and their demand recovery will be V shaped (they're liars and it won't)
>India will be a thirsty lil bitch again soon (it also won't)

>>18907513
This nigger has good info.

>>18906555
This nigger is a fucking idiot and doesn't understand oil at all. Dear dipshit: not all oil is the same, not all countries are the same, and not all countries have large strategic reserves. The right oil still needs to make it to the right places, the core business of tankers is still sound, much moreso if they can get completely debt free in a few quarters.

>>18907987
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD TANKER MUHREENS HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODL

>>18904391
BOBOS BACK IN TOWN

>>18905055
Disney suspending divi is actually bullish desu.
RDS did the same.
It's the responsible thing to do during the crisis for survival. That they missed earnings is bearish news for them you are correct. This is still clown market.
But generally, there are actually quite a few stocks outside the oil market I am looking into as divie ones that I've been really hoping cut their dividend at least temporarily(to strengthen balance sheets through the crisis).
Also from what I hear(granted most of this is through interviews of them) a lot of hedge fund guys are really uneasy with this market even though the banks are thrilled.

Where fundamentals are the stock will eventually follow HOWEVER:
>In this case the fundamentals are great due to market conditions, if the market conditions causing the fundamentals goes away the stock will not follow
The market thinks the fundamentals have dissipated.
>>18905530
The main strat by the hedge fund guys has been to minimize there risk make relative to their size small plays, hedge with things like gold and keep most of their money on the side to wait and see taking the occasional position they believe in to test their current understanding of where we are. They don't believe in this rally but that doesn't mean they will buy in with quantity until they are sure that reality is going to reassert itself.
>>18905670
The institutions all follow the banks and the banks are bullish rn on everything as retarded as that sounds.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH MY HANDS

HELP ME /biz/, IT HURTS TO HOLD

>>18906451
WTI went negative a bit earlier than we thought, it's possible it messed up the timelines for some of our predictions. I'm going to have to run the numbers again to estimate where we're at but I don't think there's any stopping the may-june Oilmageddon. Rystad should have their next report out soon, that might give some insight.
My tanker calls at getting clapped, but irrational is an understatement- some of these companies are trading under NAV now despite solid earnings.
>>18907889
> we likely don't roar back as expected.
This. I'm not sure second order effects are priced in- politicians are celebrating the economy re-opening, but at the same time people owe two months back rent, people still need to buy food, and aren't going to be traveling or buying much. Not to mention business bankruptcies, the fact stimulus checks and unemployment never even came for many, and a whole host of other things. We'll likely see more stimulus packages here in the USA, but the gov is entirely reactionary... trying to fix a demand contraction with supply side fiscal policy (payroll tax cuts, really?) isn't going to do anything
For what it's worth, your math has been generally sound. The data we're working with is super manipulated though.

>>18907889

So why is DHT down 7% on the back of it's excellent Q1 numbers?

Why is FRO down 6%. Why is EURN down 6%. Why is TNK down 7.45%

>>18907889
>hey bjurgen, go back to /biz/ and see if you can get them to pump in more lol

>>18908162
To test our faith, brother

>>18907669
OPEC increased production pre-cut to a peak of about 5 million over pre-crisis levels. The cut was about 10 million. Other cuts from other players(bound to happen this was why Saudi started this shit in the first place) unrelated to the OPEC+ agreement makes up the difference. Currently supply is about -10~12 from normal. The prediction Goldman is making is that demand will rebound due to reopening sufficient to make up the remaining supply demand gap.

I'm also looking at these numbers not really believing them if I'm being honest with you, this is why I'm waiting for the Rystad report. I do believe their numbers.

What basically changed was 1) Russians actually cut[unexpected] 2) Trump announced reopening and Goldman ran their numbers on that and believe it changes the math such that we avert disaster.

>>18907987
This made me lol. Its good to have a sense of humor at a time like this. Im with you till the end tanker bros

I learned a hard lesson about market orders this morning
I set DHT to buy last night at 6.80 and it went through this morning at 7.05
limit orders from now on

>>18908162
They expect all of us in the wreckage

>>18908058
>not all oil is the same, not all countries are the same, and not all countries have large strategic reserves. The right oil still needs to make it to the right places, the core business of tankers is still sound

So? Can you tell me which of my points you are adressing with your ramblings?

>they can get completely debt free in a few quarters.

Debt will be reduced but it won't go away that soon. DHT has still almost 800 million in debt, two good quartals aren't enough to pay that off.

until these guys make a call that actually HAPPENS, this is a fucking larp
we're getting nothing but recaps and vague predictions and philosophizing

>>18904391
I'm a submariner and I like tankers when they don't nearly kill us

>>18908381
they have just killed me

>>18907947
Post relevant links. That is my gut feeling as well but I'm waiting for more data.
>>18908051
Your the fellow who checked my math if I recall correctly?
Have you been doing well outside the research? Personal life been treating you well fren'?
>>18908058
The only question now is who is correct fren'.
The bigwigs over at Goldman, or small fags like us.

A lot of you guys seem to have a big misunderstanding about stock valuations. Tanker share prices are not going to moon. These are not growth stocks. This rise in earnings is temporary and will not last. The only benefit to holding these stocks is for the divvy. For DHT, $0.35/share @ $6.41 a share is not bad, but not going to make you a millionaire. That's a 5.4% annualized return if you can sell the stock at the same price. It's also not an amazing return, so there's little reason for the stock to moon.

>>18907889
Well, I did consider the meta points. I sold the rest of my oil today (I was already selling during highs recently, every day they keep going down) and reinvested more into DHT and FRO from them. Fuck NAT, I am not giving you more shares. I do think black swan will hit too since it is well known now that Corona infection rates for America overall are rising still, yet we are reopening. We are going far too soon back to normal, I do not believe in V especially when the only stocks holding up the market is a basket full only. My only positions are tankers right now but not even because I simply believe in my tankers. I just don't believe in anything else anymore right now. Oil, airlines, industries, all vulnerable. Retail, kek, plummeting for sure. REITs? Skipping rent is now a norm. And I firmly believe tech is on a huge bubble right now.

I....have not been doing the best honestly. I was sick for a good long while (probably corona, but over it now) and in general been sleepless and bit depressed. I am managing, just want to be happy, you know? I hope you are doing well though despite being so busy.

>>18908093
Well, that does make more sense contextually. It is pretty dumb, but sensible. And "I cannot possibly see how this can go wrong!" is a real vibe reading through. The hedge fund thing is true btw, an anonymous survey was done a while back and it was revealed hedge fund guys were more pessimistic than ever before in this market. Market continued rallying until today, been like a week or week and a half since.

>>18905530
Hang in there brother

>today

>>18908413
>Your the fellow who checked my math if I recall correctly?
Nope, I'm not that anon. Sorry.

>>18908093
It does explain the low volume we've seen on some stock plays, if hedges are mostly on the sidelines. I'm somewhat concerned that the main reason we haven't taken off is a geopolitical play- Oil crashing again due to supply glut, but when it does there will be an easy scapegoat (the Saudi tankers shipping oil here. Not actually relevant, but doesn't need to be). The bad oil news then drags down energy, combine this with news of impending bankruptcies and you easily could get a 2nd selloff; even with the fed buying everything.
There's a lot of political ammo in encouraging that to happen.
>>18908413
> fellow who checked my math
That was me. A few weeks back you linked me the updated Rystad, my response was "Christmas comes early". It definitely did, managed to 10x a USO put around that time. Anyway I'm glad you're still kicking and doing well.

>>18908151
The reason WTI went negative is:
1) Since its centralized in Cushing this causes a tighter storage situation relatively speaking.
2) US market was already relatively oversaturated before Saudi dumping and Corona destroyed demand causing rapid buildup.
3) USO mandate meant they owned a shitton of positions they realized were worthless a day before contracts are locked in so they dumped big.
This all came to pass on a single day as well.
I agree with you this is a ridiculous pullback.

On the reopening thing they are talking about limits for how much traffic restaurants can have say 60% of normal traffic. If you know anything about those industries that means they are fucked.
The big meta question here is when and how does reality reassert.
>>18908162
The market thinks the play is over and is panic selling basically.
>>18908163
I hear Norway is a fantastic country.

>>18908450
Cute feet give me courage. I will be. Everything is now riding on this, I am all in only on tankers after today's dip. Going back to pre-crisis levels...this can't be. I am eating losses like no tomorrow, but I will hold. Hang in there too with all your investments, friend.

OK give it to me straight should i sell all my tankers except DHT for the divvies?

Nice little shakeout going on. Tankers have always been volatile, but I'll say it again. This is a 6 month play minimum. If you can't stomach some losses in the mean time then get out.

>You now realize you have been taking stock trading advice from a person who posts pictures of japanese cartoons focusing on female feet.

justus christ what have we done

>>18908740
this is your only post in the thread, you're lying

>>18908645
Even when speculating you should have some diversification to protect yourself from situations like this my man

>>18908695
If you're smoothbrained and have weak hands at least wait until the expiry of June oil contracts - that's when you've got the best chance of an exit with your stake intact.

>>18908058
Please stop avatarfagging as chiseled white dudes from 40 years ago and pretending to be an expert.

>>18905195
faggot

trust in the FAANG. stop being such fringe outcasts

>>18908431
On the REIT I've been looking into those for long term divies.
I really wish some of the weaker ones would cut their divi rn would give me a lot more faith in buying in. I'm very worried about margin calls or an inability to bounce back due to corona continuing longer then is currently being expected(by their actions and the markets).

As for tech, growth tech is a bubble rn.
TSLA is always a bubble but relative to its logic as a stock is near where it should be with upside(but relative to any notion of reality hilariously overvalued even if TSLA delivers all of its memes).
As a general rule for tech if it had a PE under 30 pre-crisis it is probs not a bubble. If had over 30 and is not AMZN overvalued/bubble.
The only major part of tech I feel comfortable with right now is biotech(non-S&P) desu, mostly because it took a dump downwards due to Corona and has failed outside the S&P companies to recover. The new valuations are honestly a lot more attractive the only two questions are 1) Does said company have sufficient resources/gameplan to weather current conditions and arrive to eventual profitability 2) Is their product(drug or otherwise) something that a) Addresses something with a market b) Has actual results c) Can clear the FDA.

A lot more legwork there but its not all bad rn.
If your depressed try exercising or going out for a walk if you have nice weather fren'. You should still be using this time for figuring out your plans outside the market(learning skills the occasional social connection etc).
Don't let the virus be an excuse to let your life fall to shit.

As for me I'm doing pretty well got back a test which I did rather well on. Been spending a lot of time with family, I have my complaints but life is really not that bad for me and things will likely improve for me within the next week due to tests ending.

Bought in at 6.40 months ago. Was up to 8.40. Didn't sell. Now I'm here holding the bag. Sould a call for 150 though. Why didnt i set a stop loss.

>>18904460
You have to own the stock before record date, then sell after payday, but the stock price is adjusted downward to account for the divvy.

>>18908544
Sorry for confusing you with: >>18908494

Also you managed to 10x on USO dumping honestly good for you math fren'.
You have to remember the passive investor aspect to this namely:
>Big passive pension investors rely heavily on Boomers
>Boomers are retiring
>Boomers withdraw as they retire
So we have an inbuilt downward pressure outside the current pecularities.
The only question is what will finally cause reality to reassert itself(in oil markets but also the general market). I don't know the answer to that fren'. What it would take is a series of nasty margin calls that trigger a chain reaction for a market wide correction, where that happens IDK. In oil specifically it would be either a) demand failing to meet Goldman's expectations b) 2nd wave reasserting Corona dominance c) Oil war reignites.

>>18908817
Why not look at an ETF like MORT that can rebalance to the mREITs that stay afloat?

or how about an international REIT like RWX? Asians will always pay rent to avoid a shamefur dispray and a bring dis-honor on a famiry

>>18908743
Would it make you feel better that I, one of the biggest shills for tankers, also have a body pillow?

>>18908762
I did have diversification. I been selling off my diversification and been vindicated every time as prices go down. Now I am at a point where I own nothing but tankers, but if I kept my diversification I would be losing even more. You are 100% correct, but in this moment I made the right play it seems in dumping my other stuff the past few days. And no, I am not buying overpriced MSFT, Apple, and god forbid dividend canceling Disney. Just what am I supposed to hedge with when oil companies are going down alongside tankers? Everything is down but a select few stocks really, and keeps going down now that momentum for some sectors ran out of steam.

Least that is my view and current experience. It is a damned if I do, damned if I don't scenario.

>>18908817
I liked some REITs early on like Kimco and WELL, but I am worried about everything's future. I don't want to touch that sector at this moment until I feel it pulls back a lot more. And tech just scares me. I don't know, I should but seeing it fly every day I cannot help but wonder when it all will pull back and how hard.

Also I do exercise, and walk. It is nice here. I also been learning programming. I am just down desu for no good reason really. But I am glad you did well on your test! Enjoy not having that stress loom over you.

>>18908977
That is an interesting idea I'll look into it.

>>18908555
Same in the Netherlands. We are opening up but max 30 people per theater or cinema and 10 per restaurant. Think about that. None of these companies will earn enough to open their doors.

What are you guys thoughts on selling some june calls on my bags?

>>18905055
VLCC(rates for big oily carry boatys) are dipping mad, although the quarterly reports are good. The oil demand looks to pick up also

>>18908555
>>18908953
>Cushing
Cushing is at something like 85-90% capacity right now IIRC. USO messing up their futures distribution and bogging the market was pretty amazing, but somehow we roared back like it never happened. Gotta love clown market.
>Restaurants
These 2nd and 3rd order effects keep me up at night. Not even big restaurant chains are going to survive 1/3rd less gross income, much less the servers who survive on tips. Another fun one is industrial capx. Think companies who make big motors, CNC machines, other expensive items. All of those orders are going to be gone as companies prepare to weather the storm; and many of the smaller companies which make equipment will now have near zero cash flow.
> School
Gratz on the test! I hate tests lol. Enjoy your time in college, I just finished last year. after college it's harder to meet people and you get sucked into work. Work friends really aren't the same. I'm guessing you're business / econs of some sort; I went for EE and probably should have gone another path. (And now I trade stocks... who knew) It's a nice time to make relationship mistakes and a memories to take with you in life, go experience all you can!
> USO put
It's really luck, but sometimes those yolo $75 puts work out. Options are calculated gambles. I'd never bet my life savings though, just have my like $1k monopoly money account I play options with.
(cont)

>>18909017
I think it'd be better for your mentality on stocks if you didn't deploy all your capital into speculative plays and just keep a portion in an index fund or something, and just hold that long term.

I only speculate and trade on stuff in my play money account, my longer term/retirement bux just sit in diversified index funds

At least that way I can't sabotage my own future that badly, and it gives you a nice comparison point that hits home when you fuck up

>>18909017
The worry about the actual sector is my big concern likewise.
With tech right now the concern is valid as all hell if I'm being honest. Again if you want anything to look into rn that is tech related where you might feel comfortable look into some biotech companies. If 1) They have a product with a market 2) Their product actually noticeably addresses the issue it was built for 3) They can get govt approval to start selling then they become real companies unlike say UBER which becomes a real company between now never and the heat death of the universe.
The risk is them going bankrupt or their drug not working(can be mitigated if you know what to look for) or not being approved(can be mitigated). The upside at least in that sector makes it worthwhile.

Good to hear you also have nice weather, programming is nice and can be enjoyable. If you feel down for no good reason try to figure out whats wrong and fix it. It might be biological, but if you don't have a history of depression you are probably going through something rn(as it relates to the things around you) best to figure out what and to the best of your ability fix it and come to peace with it.

>>18908413
https://youtu.be/kJEvuaHyPlQ
Starting at 5 minutes or so. He references an earlier podcast but this is his most recent take.

>>18908756
There have been other threads. I said this in another thread several days ago.

>>18909045
In NJ and NY people are getting more money a month being unemployed than they were working. So why on earth would they seek a job? This will fuck over any buisiness that thrives on paying less than 60k to employees.

>>18909113
That would be concerning if not the fact higher rates are booked for the quarter for DHT for example already and fixed. It is no threat to earnings and they can wait for conditions to change to get better rates. Such as on May 19th.

>>18909153
I don't like index funds, I like individual stocks and learning about the companies. I am normally "good" investor, picking nice companies, holding, letting it ride with the little cash I got. However in the end I don't have much money. I am young. I don't have enough cash to have both sets of accounts yet. I started this corona market with 5k, and before tankers tanked I was at 8k so I haven't been doing badly. Ups and downs though. big downs typically from my highs. Go to 10k with smart trades and sink back to 6 with one horrific big play, work up to 9 sink to 7. Stuff like that. Like USO. Fuck what USO did to me.

But I don't disagree with anything you say, and if the climate (and my own monetary amount and age) was different then I would play accordingly. But as I see it now, I am in deep, it is for a cause I believe in, so I am riding. Least I am still above principle even if tankers tanked 1.2k out of me so far. If tankers finally go up I fully intend to sell off my NAT position rather than let it ride to the top like my DHT and FRO in order to reinvest.

>>18909175
I will take your advice and check some biotech companies then, it isn't like all the parts I complain about. I don't have a history of depression so I suppose I will just work on myself. But I am still glad you are doing well after the hard work you put in.

>>18909045
Its going to be a lot of pain.
>>18909063
Selling options always has a huge risk for downside and with these market conditions unless you are extremely confident don't bother.
>>18909125
USO reworked their mandate to be less crazy, if storage disappears oil goes negative again regardless but what happened with USO is not happening again at least short term(where one player basically caused the crash).
On the 2nd order effects:
>To make matters worse the entire system is over leveraged in massive debt
>The longer this continues the worse the debt becomes and the bubble likewise
>This incentivizes low interest rates
>Low interest rates incentivize behavior that makes crisis worse(less savings) and also bubbles worse(retarded investments) and also increases debt
>This incentivizes further lower interest rates
Its like a feedback loop until something gives eventually. The whole thing freaks me out. Meanwhile the big players are looking at spreadsheets with no fucking clue about the small guys profit margins, they seriously think this plan is realistic.

>School
I'm actually CS + math. Econ is a hobby. EE as in electric engineering or environmental engineering?

>Options play
How you did it was honestly correct for most far out of the money plays. I'll wait for you 2nd part to respond to it.

>>18909178
Thank you anon.

Question... if we have this giant oil storage buildup, there's going to be huge demand for this to zip around the world even with the demand recovering right?

>>18909275
The mandate of handouts has to end. And I think it will end far before shit is resolved. Restaurants and other companies that got "saved" sit on an even larger pile of debt. Might have low interest but it is still credit they have to pay off. I've said it at the beginning of Corona: a crisis was coming even without it. Corona is just the catalyst. I myself am not comfortable with the positivity of people right now. The repercussions of this crisis have not hit yet with all the money going around but they will if that artificial flow stops.

The oil market is clearer to me. That will just be bust. Money has this nice thing where you can make extra of it or put it on an account as needed. Oil does not have this luxury. Even if we open up and use 10 percent less, the rates of tankers will be high enough for a long time for some good divvy payments.

Just got 100 shares of STNG on the cheap, selling slightly otm calls to reduce my cost basis further, when it finally goes back up I'll just buy back that one open call and make bank. Got calls on the others but I didn't expect them to fall that low, so they'll probably end up entirely worthless and then I'll just get the stock outright.

>>18908381
Like you work in a military sub or what?

>>18909391
Just keep anons in mind with future plays. I enjoy intelligent input. Got wrecked on this tanker play so far

>>18908431
Exercise and get some sunshine. I haven't been exactly top notch either (early on in quarantine I was drinking too much) but since I started doing the Evil Russian Pushup Program things are better. Other than tanker rape.

>>18909370
As a general rule the S&P has a lot of index fund money. A lot of it. To which strategy is superior it depends on 1) Time horizon(if low don't even bother with index funds) 2) How much you are willing to look into your own plays to try and beat the market(effort) 3) Meta conditions.

As it happened unless you were high information and knew what you were doing and intelligent the index funds over time beat individual investment at least under the previous set of meta conditions.
But that was with perpetual growth and the perpetual bull market(with occasional downturns that lasted short periods).
We were in a sorta autopilot era of middle managers since the end of WW2.
I think that is changing due to a whole host of geopolitical reasons.

The end result is, I think ours will be the era where history returns and reasserts itself. In which case index funds are a complete and utter waste of time. I think we will see the return of great men in our lifetime and if I'm right about that(first of all the strategy of individual investment will under said circumstances if you know what you are doing beat the funds) its something to look forward to even if neither of us ever become great men.

>>18908312
>actual investors know that shipping rates will go back to normal
>You're lucky if tankers beat the market by a few percent in the next few years
This is a singularly ignorant statement. I'm not going to do you a favor when you spout nonsensical bullshit in the middle of the month as an "actual investor." Actual investors got into this segment in February. Actual investors are still sitting on profits since then despite the drops we just saw. Actual investors are going to tell you to go fuck yourself and look at scrapping rates during the height of the bust in 2018, environmental regs that just went into effect, total current freight capacity, and freight rates at the end of 2019.
> DHT has still almost 800 million in debt, two good quartals aren't enough to pay that off.
See above, there was a reason DHT was 800 mil in debt because it didn't scrap, and there is a reason in previous threads I said DHT and FRO in particular were going to lag behind their peers if your purpose is to speculate into short term contango.
>So? Can you tell me which of my points you are adressing with your ramblings?
This one I'll make real simple for you:
Lots of people in Asia with stinky butts and squinty eyes
Need blacky black to hit babies with trucks and do tech support
Blacky black from Texas is actually bretty good
But is far away =(
So get blacky black from middle east I guess
BUT WAIT
Blacky black from Texas just got cheap because fracky frack ^_^
Tanker-chan now gets to sail aaaaaaall the way from the wondrous united states of america to ching chang china and the mysterious land of poo
Longer trip means more moni yaaaay
Tanker chan is pleased
>>18908413
Here's what I see:
V shaped recovery that Goldman predicts - tankers should be fine for the same reason they were doing great EoY 2019
Non-V shaped recovery - tankers play contango

FOMOs and naysayers who both don't understand the space are the reason these stocks are being so wonky

>>18908772
No

>>18909370
You don't have to like index funds, but for your own sake you should keep a portion of your holdings there and regularly contribute to it. Even if it's just in an account where you buy a couple shares of SPTM or something every so often.

At the very least, you have a reasonably predictable (on a long time horizon) investment, and it gives you a real benchmark to beat. If it's been a few years and you're just still totally unable to beat it, you have to start asking if you should even be trying, or if you fundamentally need to rework how you're thinking.

It also just has some peace of mind to it, at least for me.

You can have both, they're not mutually exclusive. Plus, it teaches you some restraint to not just cash it out and reinvest it elsewhere. If you do that without a proven track record, it's a sign of weak mental and greed

Just my two cents to you brother

>>18909596
I've lost quite a bit on this tanker play also. Mostly due to tests taking me out of being able to watch it. Had I watched it I probably would have sold my positions with a profit earlier and looked into reentering them now based on the Rystad report. Sometimes real life gets you(and therefore you lose) and right now I'm slightly in the red as consequence.

>>18909125
>>18908953
> boomers
Boomers delayed their retirements in 2008 due to the last crisis. They were just starting to finally move out of the work force en'masse, now that their investments had normalized. I'm a bit concerned with this latest crisis that remaining ones will just not retire, which will mess up the labor market for anyone under 40.
> what will finally cause reality to reassert itself
This is the big question, and the thing I'm very interested in figuring out myself. I think the FED could pump enough to prop up the market for a time, but no fiscal or monetary policy will solve a demand side contraction. We're about to see an impending rent / mortgage crisis, as well as people defaulting on credit- I suspect even 2008 will pale to what's coming.
More stimulus programs and tax cuts are inevitable, but who knows if it'll make a difference.
>>18909275
Great point. The free money will eventually stop, but who knows when. The sad thing is, the $600/mo combined with common wages puts most people on unemployment in the $22-30/hr range. I don't think anyone would consider 60k a year rich. People get to experience middle class income, some for the first time in their lives... if anything, it might reveal how badly wages have been suppressed over the years. Ironically, with a now labor glut, people will probably get let got and need to find new jobs at lower pay.
>>18909391
CS+Math? Cool! Prospects are great in CS still, >3.0 GPA and internships will take you far.
Funny, I went Electrical Eng. to get away from software, but now most of what I do is FPGA/HDL code. I like engineering, but the real work is very much just a "job". Boss is terrible, they ask for miracles to be done in days when you need weeks, and somehow you pull it off... normal stuff I guess, haha.

>>18909656
>Here's what I see:
Basically this. Unless you bought near the top tankers should still be able to be a decent albeit severely neutered return even if we fully V-shape this shit.


>FOMOs and naysayers who both don't understand the space are the reason these stocks are being so wonky
It's not surprising that the swings are this violent given our current market conditions and the ease of personal investing today.

>>18909656
>total current freight capacity, and freight rates at the end of 2019
Wait, those freight brokering threads on /biz/ weren't a meme?

>>18909656
that whole sperg out post, pls take your meds

>>18909640
Wow. Talk about insightful. I will keep an eye out and continue individual company investment personally. if over maybe 2 years or so indexes win out, I go with some indexes. Something to write as a sticky note somewhere. I got time right now to put in effort, without real obligations.

>>18909701
I suppose. You make good arguments, and portioning out isn't a bad idea. I don't think you are wrong at all, and I will consider it. In this market though....I just don't know. Also dealing with the issue of "now," I really don't wanna sell at a loss to be a good boy so it is a bit out of the question until I get some yields. I plan on wrecking my NAT position once it goes positive, I just need it to beat 6 again basically for very good profits, not a big ask. But for now....what to do but ride the waves desu.

These FRO bags are getting pretty heavy, I fucked up and bought them a little high, and a little too much... cant afford to sell these at a big loss, think I'm just gonna yolo it and double down once it goes sideways instead of -10% every day.

>>18909391
>Low interest rates incentivize behavior that makes crisis worse(less savings) and also bubbles worse(retarded investments) and also increases debt
>This incentivizes further lower interest rates
I haven't gotten a single coherent answer as to how we're to pay what are effectively infinite debt IOU's to ourselves. Money isn't really entering the system either, and exists mainly in bank accounts / computer systems. Actual physical currency levels are pretty much static. We have a federal reserve banking system with no reserve requirements, and unlimited overnight loans at a 0% interest rate. If we go negative rates, we're now paying people to monetize debt, financed with debt, and paid for with... debt.
You know, some anon awhile back said it was like a final boss move in a shounen. The system seems to run on faith, not fundamentals; and maybe that's the real secret.

>>18909763
>>18909763
>Boomers refusing to retire
In a way this is an opportunity, if capital remains cheap for a while longer due to Boomers boomering then one can take advantage of this to climb up. Part of why I entered CS to begin with. I needed the math for what I actually wanted but I also needed money and CS thanks to the boomers can get you the money.

As for the fed pumping eventually this M3 crap will have real effects in the world of M2 and M1. Only a matter of time till Cantillon laughs at all of us from his grave. Part of me wonders if the fairest thing to fix the system would be trying to force the M3 into M2 and M1 to force the fed to spike interest rates back up. Inflation would be a bitch, the pain caused from it would be a bitch. Its also completely necessary.

>Miracles to be pulled off
Reminds me of dads description of the army.

My plan for CS is to hitch a ride to a startup I think actually has some potential, try to sell it off before the massive debt correction and use my profit to build the project I've wanted to build most of my life now. I don't want to build my idea within the current debt shareholder dynamics it would only lead to it being destroyed by the failures inherent to both so my only solution is acquire capital sufficient to build it without debt and without shareholders and build it.

If I ever get to build my idea I will need engineers a lot of them.
Is it just a job for you because you have to overindulge in the bureaucratic aspects of the job or because of the actual work is banal(your not building or maintaining a system that actually interests you)?

>>18909983
>I haven't gotten a single coherent answer as to how we're to pay what are effectively infinite debt IOU's to ourselves.
read this book

>>18909909
Regardless of what you do, the fact you're this worried about your investment suggests you're in over your head as far as the amount of cash you're in with

I would take a break from watching the tickers, do whatever you gotta do to decompress, fap to feet, whatever it may be, then think on your longer term and what kind of plan and allocations you can come up with that won't have you sweating in your boots over a play you have going on

Emotion is the enemy of the investor, no matter if you're picking stocks or just dumping money into an index

It's also about your mental health too bro

>>18909909
Indexes will win if we return to bull market. I see the debt cycle correction as inevitable due to macro factors. Still it might drag on for a long while the question is when. Once the debt cycle bursts abandon the indexes totally.

>>18910112
This i'm soo fucking diversified. My tanker play was 4% of my portfolio now its three, contemplating to up it back to 4. No sweats. You have a whole life to make it bro, its more in the journey anyway.

Fyi 30% crypto (eth, LIT, XRP)
20% metals (gold, platinum, silver)
20% cash
15% mining stocks (6 names)
15% other stocks

>>18909983
There is no plan because that would involve admitting that pain is inevitable and it will hurt a lot mostly due to poor choices by the boomers.

The game play will happen when the M3(spreadsheet money) starts entering the M2(Savings) and M1(day to day) supply. At which point either interest rates go up massively or hyperinflation.
All it takes is one bad margin call and the whole house of cards collapses. I've been trying to think up alternatives to that could fix it, but kek I'm not a big enough player to implement any of them(even if I have a crazy idea how this could be solved). The most important thing to getting a real recovery back is to have them raise the interest rate back up and keep it there despite the massive pain that will come with that. The only question is how to get the powers that be to do so(and stick to it) before its to late.

I feel like we're seeing this drop because market makers don't want to follow through on the options they sold. At this point I've seen a lot of tanker threads on reddit (and here) saying that they've closed their $20-25C for May 15th.... Anyone else thinking the same thing?

>>18910112
Not looking makes me worry more. Honestly I wouldn't be worrying at all if my losses overall weren't so great at this point, I am very much a "long as I am above principle I am alright" kind of person. Or at least close enough. But this irrationality is brutal because I can't understand it. I am not going to mess with anything, just gonna suffer. I don't know what to do, just decompress best I can while trying to ignore reality. Like the market does. I got long term ideas and plans, but I got to get there first and accumulate enough capital to spend and wait for a market condition that feels right to invest in. All which don't exist right now.

>>18910141
Big if imo. I don't know how much or when, I just know right now is not somewhere I want to put my money in to "accumulate." Anything "safe" currently feels just as risky as risk plays.

I'm done trying to make sense of it bros. Companies on the verge of bankruptcy having some of the best short term stock gains while having their customer base reduced below break even levels. Tankers, have some of the best actual earning ever, take a fat shit. I will hold these bags as a reminder, I am just going to throw money in an ETF or something and wait for clown world to be over.

>>18905055
>This is so wrong it isn't even funny. I am completely baffled right now as to what is going on
Tankers are small cap stocks seeing multiple times their regular volume from traders looking to play on oil price volatility through oil adjacent stocks and algos geared to push those spikes as hard as they will possibly go. These traders are watching spot prices and news like a hawk. Spot recovers and good news about oil demand = tankers down.

A more cynical person would say that tankers are a really really obvious play at this point, so much so that Freddy Fuckwad down at the hardware store is talking about it. Said cynical person note that tanker stocks prior to this whole storage crisis was largely held by institutional investors (aka hedgies), and might also say these persons are pushing the price downward to counteract mainstream hype and giving the appearance that nothing - not even great earnings - can save these stocks.
>>18909815
>severely neutered return
Yep. Once hysteria dies down we'll see what they're actually worth.
>>18909863
go back to 9gag butthurt newfag.
>>18909414
Not just about demand, it's about the demand of transport vs the supply of tankers plus the wildcard of whatever world politics are in play. One of the biggest wildcards in shipping was the new IMO regulations that went into effect in January limiting maritime sulfer pollution. Upside for crude tankers was that new types of fuels would required additional shipping for additional components. Crude tankers were already going to have a roller coaster year, but the effect of this is all muddled up with demand destruction and storage wars, and the winners and losers are not clear.

Anyone who says they know what the industry is going to look like a year from now is full of shit (especially anybody looking at the current lows as realistic). Nobody does.

>>18910644
Well if it means anything to you I bought a share of DHT in solidarity bro

Do most tankers give dividends? At what point is it better to just hold the stocks for dividends than to sell? I have $2k invested in five of them at the moment.

>>18911230
My plan B was to hold and collect divvys while selling OTM calls. That should make 150 in premmies a month. Also have 2k in tankers. I did not prepare for clown market to bust me in the back of the head with a bat and drop kick my asshole. I am half tempted to purchase more, but I am already overexposed to this sector.

>>18909178
Fucking beautiful. Thanks dude.

>>18911178
I thought tankers were still not talked about much until I went looking around today and saw youtubers and such doing it. Truthfully I buy into your cynical outlook, I talk sometimes with my dad and he dumped them today after buying a while back with the exact sentiment you are saying about what big buys are trying to make. So, yea, I think boomers and retailers are definitely being shaken out right now.

>>18911228
Y-you came through for me anon from this morning! Yay! You bought in! We are gonna make it!

Sarcasm aside, it is nice to see, thank you anon.

>>18910088
> overindulge in the bureaucratic aspects of the job or because of the actual work is banal
Bad/hostile/out-of-touch management is some of it, poor culture fit at current job is another. The actual engineering work is interesting enough. Computers do what you tell them. But when your boss finds a reason to be unhappy with everything you do, and attempts to reconcile / have a better working relationship result in them getting angry; it's just a lost cause. Getting berated for bringing up issues that were backed up with math, and having other engineers agree with me was a fun time.
When I eventually end up in management, I know what NOT to do when interacting with people your work with, that much is for sure.
Startup culture is a hard one. You can have a perfect idea, implement it, and lose it all because it didn't sell, or your VC capital pulled out, or countless other problems. Or you just had bad timing. Happens with hardware all the time, engineers make awesome stuff but it's poorly marketed / not in demand so fails in market. Look at Juicero- their product was top notch. Too bad no one actually needed the juice bags. If your company survives the gauntlet, you'll do well enough though.
>>18910267
Hyperinflation is all but guaranteed at this point. I really don't think there is any saving the current system. Solutions are way out of my league, but If USD fails it'll take the world econ with it. I fully expect we'll see some sort of UBI before all this is over.

And hey, it's nice catching up! thanks for popping in a bit, hope to see you in more threads in the future

>>18911403
No worries anon, I'll ride the rollercoaster with you

>>18911457
we should likely run a dual currency system.

will tankers recover tomorrow?

>>18911612
>recover
We are going to the depths, mate. Gird your loins

>>18911612
No point in asking that quesiton. We've seen positive momentum right at the close just to get it ripped out of our hands the day after. It's a gamble. 50/50. On the bright side, the 30 minute chart macd is crossing so maybe we go bullish.

>>18911612
EURN and INSW are going to report strong earnings pre-market, so we're looking at another 10-15% drop. Hail Satan.

>>18911612
>>18911403
For me tankers changed to a long play. I am bearish about the economy and the fact the rest of the world is not means that - if the next leg down happens and bubbles start to pop - it will catch people of guard. This will bring back a lot of volatility to, among others, the oil market. Volatility and unpreparedness, that is what tankers thrive on. Well at least their stock prices do...

>>18911749
why the fuck are strong earnings tanking stock price? the algorithms counteracting retail traders?

>>18911788
I haven't said 'clown world' during this entire shitfest but I'm just about ready to say the words now.

>>18911788
do algorithms buy calls?
because i put a couple $15 calls on sale out of curiosity and they get snatched up

>>18911752
I think it is super long play. Suffering ahead. Looking at every stock chart, its like everyone is copying the S&Ps homework. The minute the economy goes down people liquidate successful positions to tread water. I think the winners may not rise above until this thing is over. Like being pulled down by a kid who can't swim clutching onto you. We are gonna get dragged down with him.

>>18911612
>lmao using crayons
sorry i'm not based but atleast i have something to hold onto

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intrinsic-calculation-dht-holdings-inc-111229315.html

Motherfuckers

>>18911457
The problem with the managers of this generation is they only look at the balance sheets but understand nothing of the numbers.
That is they try and manage hyperspecific tasks they are totally disinterested in actually learning. You can forgive a manager who doesn't understand the specifics and understands the big picture(and is humble on that which he does not know) likewise you can forgive a manager who doesn't understand the big picture stuff for the company but who at least gets it on how the nitty gritty of the company is run. A manager who understands neither especially if they are an ass about it is the worst type. At that point you are better off with no manager.
I agree with you that the startup world is a mess and a gauntlet, I think regardless I can survive in it and have a better chance then most to even come out a winner from it.
It's not just a good product, its a good product with a good market to sell it to a good team behind it and an actual realistic plan to make money.

If I make my startup money that's when things get real interesting.

On the issue of solutions it all depends on timeframes and what level one finds oneself at when SHTF. The way I see it, if the system cannot be saved best to build sufficient to be fine when it collapses, if it can be repaired with drastic reform that is preferable(if highly unlikely and requiring rather creative means).
The question is not whether we will have pain(hyperinflation but also other things) the question is how much how long and how we are on the other side. That is what one wishes to(if one has any effect at all) manage, if impossible for society(likely) then at least for oneself and one's own personal fortune.
I have one more test coming up(so I'm probably disappearing for another week), but I'll be around on these threads moreso in the future.
Probably going to stick around for at least till the end of today.

>>18911571
You are a good person anon. A good, lewd person.

>>18911752
I am bearish too on the ecnomy. I was bullish unironically the past month, but this just isn't right, the reality has manifested where optimism was had and it just isn't as spectacular as predicted. I believe tankers have to go up so holding. If they go down tomorrow too....well, if NAT goes down less than them I will maybe liquidate some and throw it in DHT and FRO.

>>18911950
new thread when you're ready, friends

>>18911958
At least if it crashes there will be cute feet pics on the way down

>>18912001
A pair of soft soles to cushion the fall. I can have some pleasure at least during this "crisis."

Final note.
>BE BOLD, HOLD