/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18871255
Jeff Snider of Alhambra investments

/thread

the us dollar is the only fiat backed by a commodity; oil

>>18871255
Demand for dollar is still higher

>>18871300
This. Inflation is a matter of outrunning the metaphorical bear.

>>18871300
This x2. As long as there is demand for US dollar, they can keep printing

>>18871295
oil is also really low right now though?

>>18871255
>Isn't the FED printing trillions? Money supply has increased massively?
>Yet the dollar is pretty stable and has even gained against some other currencies. Explain this shit biz
Everyone else needs dollars to pay their debt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDr3lRZ01Zo

>>18871279
This is the Jeff Snider podcast where I finally got it
Its out of order a little bit but you have to hear both parts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S-xxU7wYiM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuhp3mJTLsY

>>18871255
>Isn't the FED printing trillions?
To save quadrillions.

Inflation doesn't matter when you're the top dog

Also helps that everyone else is total dogshit

>>18871295
>the us dollar is the only fiat backed by a commodity; oil
oil went down... so why didn't >>18871295
dolla went down too?

>>18871344
>This x2. As long as there is demand for US dollar
which demand there is for usd dollar? who demands it?

because debt is being transfer to other countries as we speak. they are dolarizing other countries economy.

>>18871255
search the dollar milkshake theory by brent johnson.. will explain it all.. its only going to strengthen in the near term

>>18871512
its not backed by oil in any way

>>18871532
all balance sheets in all the banks in the whole world are put together in dollars - its the reserve currency of the whole world

everybody needs dollars to balance their books

>>18871348
>>18871512
us dollar is down against gold

>>18871255
recession causes deflation
technology causes deflation
if every country is printing money at the same rate, forex rate will stay the same

Just buy BTC and hedge against the upcoming rise of asset price

>>18871574
if you want to buy oil you have to use usd

>>18871602
hookers too

>>18871255
Nice kike like all the other lolbertarians

Inflation goes down
Bitcorn goes up
Can’t explain that

>>18871628
>its the reserve currency of the whole world
>just because

why don't you learn something sweetie
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_dollar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_David
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq%E2%80%93Syria_pipeline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century

Because other countries are absolute SHIT when compared to the USA. Everything other countries have, ties back to the USA, just like how altcoins are dependent on BTC.

You think those lazy boner sniffers in Europe work? All they do is lounge around and do fuck all, they make mexicans seem hard working.

>>18871255
>ctrl+f velocity
>0/0
closes tab

>>18871255
Actual banker here

Other countries are buying dollars and US bonds. Cause their currencies are completely fucked. The dollar is more trusted and yes a stronger return, other countries have negative rates right now.

>>18871574
>its not backed by oil in any way
that anon said it's backed by oil
What is backed frrom then?
From jews?
from military?

>>18871255
>explain why the dollar isn't losing value
the dollar is fiat fun money but it might as well be as good as solid gold cause it's the world's reserve currency. The dollar is okay and will be okay no matter how many zeros jpow adds to the balance sheet because globally everyone has to eat it, there's not other choice. If the reserve currency went bunk then everything and anything involving finance would collapse

>>18871733
yeah, a lot of people are paying down debts or saving instead of spending, causing further deflation.

>>18871255
The money is going into the M3 money supply and not the M1 money supply. This means it sits in bank accounts on computers instead of circulating into the actual economy through wages.

>>18871255
If the US Navy decided to stop patrolling your trade routes your country is fucked. You can't trade internationally without protection, and not many countries have the money to find a Navy. $6 Trillion dollars is the worth of being the keeper of peace and trade.

>>18871255
USD is the world's reserve currency, they print and other nations lose value, while US abuses the advantage cause no one can stop them

>>18871830
this, theres a clear reason why the US toppled any dictatorship that didnt accept this as currency

>>18871279
Based

When China goes to a Gold backed Yuan then the dollar collapses.

>>18871830
This makes me bullish about my 70% dollar holdings

>>18872246
the dollar is eternally bullish BUT fucking around so much with the printers might cause other countries to seek out a new reserve currency. China would love to step into those shoes for instance so the eternal run on them isn't a great idea in the long term. We run the risk of scaring the world into seeking out an alternative reserve

>>18872196
https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/2176256/chinas-petroyuan-going-global-and-gunning-us-dollar
already happened. It's a question of military though and I don't know the balance between china needing to expand vs china not be able to stand up to US pressure

If the US allows china to replace it in the global order without WW3 the US is entirely corrupt
https://youtu.be/mYAHPPXmcts
https://youtu.be/GcFiJwpvmq0

>>18872196
Why would they ever do that theyre bigger currency manipulators than us

>>18872328
Interesting how Poland has a higher score than Germany.

>>18872652
Time for them to claim Hamburg and a suitable Hamburg corridor.

>dollar is the world reserve currency
>fed can print as much as it wants and the only people losing value are people holding non-dollar currencies
>yuropoors losing value as we speak while daddy trump hands me free money

>>18872627
because they want the yuan to be world reserve so that they can conquer and financially repress the world
they are presenting an alternative to the usd that is hypothetically more attractive because of US sanctions and it's gold backing. Which is preposterous because china is communist, they'll debase it at the first opportunity their goals is the enslavement of every man, woman and child to the will of the party.

The other nagging thing is why did the US bend over backwards to maintain Israel in the middle east in the 70s? You could say it was to maintain division amongst the arabs stopping a new ottoman empire of oil but then why would have that situation required less war than what we had. It's hard not to see it justifying a zionist conspiracy especially when the usa was built by masons

only read half the responses so if i touch on someone elses comments already i apologize

milton friedman himself said infaltion from the printing press can take 2 to 10 years to see the results in the markets.
apparently it takes awhile to go from the fed to the giant banks to the greedy middle men and so on down to us.
obama printed a bunch of money and they inflation should be hitting us now. not the current printing.
also inflation only happens when theres a new excess of a valuable resource. so them printing money and giving it to banks who were already over leveraged and are using it to secure their own well being. which means at least 2 years before we see any inflation from it

>>18871255
Because most money is actually credit and nobody wants to lend.

Now if they keep printing money as the economy recovers, there will be huge inflation.

>>18871255
Burgers military strenght allows them some degree of bullying and they decided for this to be inflation export.

>>18872898
>2-10 years
So then the we had the mini/double dip recession in 2011-2012, ie 2-3 years after beginning of QE1. Truth is that it seems we’re still being fucked by 2008 and the inflation brought about by each QE is death by a thousand cuts, literally.

>>18871255
This is what Milton would say about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mUYMvuNIas

>>18871255
400 trollion debt
World currency
More debt from other counties in usd
We are going into deflation

Now is not the time for inflation Anon, that comes alter.

>>18873181
Do you know what literally means

it isnt mere printing of money that leads to hyperinflation. they are two important details this simplistic view misses

1. the ongoing liquidity crisis means people worldwide flee to the u.s Dollar, this keeps the Dollar strong and desirable.

2. printing can be an effective staqtegy agaisnt deflation which is a product of 1, so the RIGHT amount of QE will keep the ship afloat.

inflation is not a great evil, economists for the most part agree that the best monetary system appears to be to keep inflation at 2%. this mild inflation encourages investment and discourages saving but not the point to cause detriment to the little guy short term.

Too much inflation and your fiat loses the faith of its people and weakens your populace's purchasing power (but conversely, in some cases, this could help encourage foreign investment), too little inflation or outright deflation means stagnation of the economy

Think of a healthy economy as a functioning circulatory system, you want just the right amount of blood pressure, too little and the blood pools in extremities and doesnt distribute properly(i.e deflation), too much pressure and you get anything from functional but damaging to function (moderate inflation) to death (hyperinflation).

>>18871255
>anybody who isn't an economics retard
>friedman OP pic

>>18871344
What's funny is libtards were all running around saying that repo shit was because the economy was failing and the fed was trying to pump, but it was actually because the economy was so based that so many people wanted dollars that there weren't enough to fulfill repo demands so the fed had to help by doing a bunch of short term loans so people who needed dollars to do business wouldn't run out of them.

>>18871512
oil being traded in dollars is one of MANY things that cause high demand for dollarinos, but far from the only thing. Anyway, price of oil irrelevant, you're missing the point. Dominance of the dollar in oil trades, whatever their volume and valuation, are what counts.

>>18871416
>To save quadrillions.
how?

>>18871695
ignorant brainlet here. TIme is money. What do you mean with all those links?
What do you want to say?

>>18873800
>>18871295
>>18871602

>>18873747
>Dominance of the dollar in oil trades
so american buy more oil barrell than otha countries. Is this what you mean?

>>18873800
>>18873818
is wrong, what backs US dollars is nukes and aircraft carriers. The fact that oil is traded in $ is a side effect of those two things.

>>18873842
If a Jap buys oil from a Wop they do the transaction in dollars. That's what I mean. No Yankees would ever dream of trading oil to each other in Yen or Euros or whatever the fuck they use over there.

>>18871255
It is losing value relative to goods and services

Dollar milkshake theory

>deflation before massive inflation or hyper inflation

>>18873639
fun fact; that magical 2% inflation rate isn't out of thin air.
The annual rate of gold inflation (the % of newly mined gold compared to the total amount above ground) has held at about 1.57% for the last century...

>>18871295
It's not backed by oil, it's backed by our labor- slave tier. Also Iran and other countries make tones off of oil as well

>>18871255
>We're printing trillions
Every other government is printing just as much proportional to their economy.

>>18871255
Everyone is buried in debt and everyone has to use dollars to buy oil. Its a massive ponzi scheme that the western world has adopted. Either keep on printing money and killing sand people or be Zimbabwe times a hundred thousand

>>18873870
Based white chad who doesn't give a fuck about other shit hole countries

>>18871760

so the dollar is the king of fiat, but still fiat. lol.

>>18872627
they also lie quite a bit, so its safe to say no one would trust them if they did start baking their currency by gold

>>18873857
nukes and aircraft carriers is what stops oil producers accepting anything but usd for oil. See saddam husein and muamar gadafi

>>18875526
Ya that's what I meant more or less.

>>18871255
The currency velocity is nil. Cantillon effect. Combine the two and you will understand the stonks are being inflated by QE infinity and basically nobody is spending currency right now. Once the shutdowns are stopped and people feel more comfortable spending, then you will see the inflation in places outside the stonk market (such as the super market).

>>18871255
>Jamesaltucher

All I learned from this thread is that were all screwed in the long term

>>18871255
Investors are hoarding American dollars driving the value of the dollar up.

>>18875695

>once the shutdowns are stopped

anon, i....

Hyper inflation happens in 3rd world countries because they borrow US dollars from the world bank to fund projects. Then they have to repay the US dollars. They can't repay the dollars which is why they go on a printing spree.

Any country with debt denominated mostly in their own currency won't see hyper inflation.

>>18875526
You're right that we just throw countries against the lockers for trying to buck the system, but that has led to a problem we had 100 years ago.
Back then, the US amassed so much gold (and we all used gold backed currency) that the whole world was hungry for USD. This was deflationary and we actually tried to strengthen the Pound in order to fight this.

We've come full circle now: the USD ate all its competition because you have to play ball with us to sell oil, or use SWIFT, or to not get your shipping lanes BTFO by pirates/rivals. And now that everyone looks to the USD as a reserve currency, their's not enough to go around.
The dollar is going to eat itself. Its too desirable for its own good.

>>18871255
The dollar is the standard, the reference, and backed by oil. Demand for US dollars is wildly inflated.

Everyone is printing money simultaneously, not just the US. We are all collapsing together, so relative value isn't affected in the way it would if only one country was drowning.

You might want to check out Raoul Pal interviews on Real Vision Finance to get a vibe if you would prefer hearing this stuff from a based career macro investor.

>>18875952
2nd the Raoul plug
They publicly released their march strategy digest recently, he argues that we are staring down the barrel of a depression in the same way they were in 1929. His advice is that he putting money into physical gold and BTC (not even memeing you can read it yourself if you give them a burner email address)

>>18871255
When velocity of money slows down.

theres demand for it u brainlet

>>18871295
no, petro dollar means this>>18871602
Everyone needs oil so they need dollars to buy it, so they need to sell us their stuff. That's why US runs trade deficits all the time, and in theory we should get good deals on our imports since they need our dollars to buy oil.

>>18875952
Dollar is not backed by oil, stop saying this

>>18875952
The dollar is not backed by oil. Cool it with the antisemetism.

>>18875870
Tell that to the hundreds fiat currencies that failed every single time across human history

>>18871255
Everyone is long dollars, globally.

>>18876184
That's not why the US runs trade deficits.

>>18871255
>Can anyone who isn't an economics retard explain why the dollar isn't losing value

Liquidity traps. Those trillions are all disappearing into the stock market, bonds various debt instruments. There's a lot of new millionaires and billionaires thanks to all this, but those assholes are turning around and trying to preserve their wealth and even grow it, so they're keeping that money tied up in stocks, bonds or anything else. Normies are saving.

When faith in the system dwindles because banks are getting wiped out, the stock market is tanking and the government is defaulting on its debt or isn't even trying to hide the fact that its printing money to service it, then that's when the millionaires and billionaires will try to spend their money on anything around them in a desperate bid to preserve as much of their wealth as possible, and this will lead to severe inflation and rationing.

>>18876505
>Those trillions are all disappearing into the stock market, bonds various debt instruments.

Not by people, tho.

>>18871386
tldr

>>18871255
>explain why the dollar isn't losing value
Dollar milkshake theory.

>>18871255
Does oil still exist? Does the population have access to those trillions?

>88 replies
>no one said Trifflin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

>>18871966

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

Nigger look at that chart and then tell me again that the money isn't going into M1.

>>18876505
>the government is defaulting on its debt
US cannot default, ever, by definition

>>18876919
>ever, by definition
kek, I will agree highly unlikely. but ever...how could you say that?

>>18877037

Because by law it can not default. The US government is legally not allowed to default. It must print more dollars to pay its debts.

>>18877098
The US doesn't print the funds, the FED does. The taxes collected only pay for the interest only payment on the national debt (probably not even anymore). With all this Covid credit flying about, the interest payment will become higher but the taxes the US that can be collected are diminishing with the destruction of businesses.

The US is already bankrupt & has been for years. hence why debt 'money' is being used.

>>18871695
>lists 10 things
>no bretton woods
lmao why did you leave out the part where the USA scammed the entire planet?

>>18877143
>The US is already bankrupt & has been for years.

It objectively isn't. When you use words you don't understand, that makes you look like a retard.

>>18871255
cos there is massive demand worldwide for the greenback balancing out the BRRRRRRRR

>>18877183
>Doesn't understand the crash of the '30s & the reason the gold standard was removed
>Most likely has no clue about why the civil war started
>probably a arrogant mutt
>Calls others retards

>>18871255
There's no supply shock. Demand is less than supply (in particular oil), which is a deflationary pressure that is keeping prices from inflating.

>>18871255
you fucknuts dont even understand basic economics? They dont notice it now, they notice it in a few years

JESUS FUCK

>>18877143
>debt 'money'
all money (credit) is also a debt, what do you mean?

>>18877252
You could see short term inflation if global supply chains and production capacity were disrupted and demand remained high. As it is, supply chains have actually proved resilient and production hasn't fallen anywhere near as much as consumer demand, which has cratered. There's oversupply in most industries, which is keeping prices down.

>>18871695
What's this chart?

>>18871255
Money isn't real retard

>>18877213

retard

>>18877291
Not to sure I understand the question...
For every credit a debit is created on the other side, its double entry bookkeeping.
The Credit is to the FED the debt is to who gave the Promissory note or similar to the FED.

Notice that chart starts in 1917....
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy

>>18877346
great rebuttal
too arrogant to learn I see
Mutt confirmed

>>18877363

retard

>>18877363
we are saying the same thing i guess

>>18877501
good, kinda thought so

I love that link I posted, it's probably the best 14 pages on the net. Have a read if you haven't already.

>>18871255
It's nor increased as much as you think but the main thing is it's all about belief. It's worth what people believe it is.

>>18877529
i know very well that BoE document
related to OP question:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/failure-of-the-quantity-of-money-theory/

>>18877555
CHECKED
Great article! I'm pretty ignorant in regards to Roman history. What a great article showing the similarities between the US & Rome.
I've discounted that site in the past..not anymore
THANKS ANON i'm going to reread it.

I saw this the other day.
https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/the-nuclear-option?source_collection=8e80b18fdb074555bdd47d97e73fbe91
to Sum it up. the fed doesn't know what it's doing, it makes a plan, doubles it, then has to go put out the fire they started.
This woman is so worried about the system, she couldn't sleep until the stimulus checks got approved.

>>18871570
Type out what you believe the milkshake theory means please. People on biz, maybe it's just you, say to watch that video. So I did and it's some fat guy rambling. Explain the theory as you see it

>>18877098
>the law is eternal
>the law cannot be broken
lol

>>18871532
There is a flight to safety in this time of crisis.
The US dollar is seen as safe because it traditionally has been. Not to say it is now. Most people aren't able to do that analysis.

>>18871255
Demand and supply faggot, the more we print the more they want, the us dollar is the global currency.
is not like some fucking Ugandan toilet paper tier shit, with some nigger printed on it that loses its value as soon as the ink dries

>>18877314
Price of gold in USD.

Because the increased demand for dollars outweighs the increased supply. Simple as.

>>18871255
The US armed forces.

>>18876774

people trying to get dollars to pay their dollar denominated debts during a liquidity crisis is bidding the dollar up

>>18871255
in 1972 $50 would buy you an oz of gold
today it takes about $1,770 to buy that same oz of gold.

>>18873786
It’s not a blackpill per se but if I were to explain it would be a huge change in worldview for you and I’m not sure if you’re ready for that.

>>18872898
this
other answers in this thread are inaccurate or not even addressing the question.

>>18878553
All debts that are not in your local currency are effectively dollar denominated debts.

>>18877143
The Fed merged with Treasury two months ago.

>>18878793
Yea, I've seen this, not sold btw. I'd be more inclined to believe, the opposite way to what you think it is, if it's true. The FED is still the one printing the FRNs, these debts are being accrued on the FED balance sheet.

>>18871255
>Can anyone who isn't an economics retard explain why the dollar isn't losing value

Doesn't have anything to do with economics, its purely political, so asking an economic expert why won't get you anything but rambling about the system.

>>18878993

>I'd be more inclined to believe, the opposite way to what you think it is, if it's true.

Yellen's been very unceremoniously shoved into a desk drawer, while Mnuchin is the guy people are talking to and about. Authority seems to have shifted, even if it's not complete.

>>18879185
When I see a return to the constitutional dollar or US treasury printed Promissory notes, I'll know I was wrong. Till then, by the fact the Trump & Munchin are still alive as an example I'll think as I said.

Did you not notice the price increase of things after everyone received $1200? That is instant inflation because the money was directly put into circulation. Loans and other things the fed prints takes longer to see the effect because they don't reach circulation as fast.

>>18871807
backed by cope

No money velocity(?)

>>18871255
>Can anyone who isn't an economics retard explain why the dollar isn't losing value

If you mean why having we seen crazy inflation in terms of prices of goods... The answers is that most of the dollars are overseas. When countries abandon the dollar and they start to trickle back to the US is when shit will really hit the fan

I cant be fucked finding the solution in this thread to say "this" to it. The solution OP is right now, during times of uncertainty, people hoard their cash causing deflation. Eventually when buyer confidence returns, people will spend their excess cash causing hyperinflation of prices from a sudden shock to supply from people spending their hoarded money.

Tl;dr it's a delayed effect OP the time will come.

>>18871255
>Isn't the FED printing trillions
The fed isn't printing and can't print anything. All it can do is create bank reserves.