/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18829981
Gosu

>>18830254
not sure why I don't see this on /biz/ more

Bump

>>18829981
v2 in June is going to be huge.

>>18829981
Augur is a train wreck and why does every shill post try to ride the coat tails of Chainlink? Any anon with half a brain will just buy LINK.

>>18831481
trainwreck how?

>>18831526
>spoon feed me
Fuck off I don’t care what you spend your money on. Have fun.

>>18831545
mY TeaM is BEtTeR thAn YouR TeAM
no one cares about any of this bullshit except you.
t.bitcoinmaxi

>>18831545
You don’t care so much you keep replying

>>18831669
because I'm curious. don't conflate the two, kid.

>>18831682
Ok

Bump

>2nd Augur shill thread on biz
Fuck off Joey

>>18832294
Krug is based

augur is a great idea ahead of its time.
Prediction markets are going to be big once ethereum is already integrated into everything, because it needs normal people using it, not just crypto speculators

>>18832940
The election and sports betting will make it jump.

Betting on games without a needed spread will attract anyone.

bump

>>18832959
As a professional sports gambler I find that unlikely. Even centralised sports betting exchanges are sadly dying, partly due to their own greed and stupidity and partly because the soft bookmaking model is a much more frictionless experience for losing gamblers.

>>18834010
wouldn't this case be bullish for augur?

>>18834213
Not really. The added friction of using cryptocurrency and dealing with slower payouts due to having to confirm results via oracles make any decentralized crypto betting exchange a worse option than using a centralized fiat betting exchange, let alone a soft bookmaker which has no such complexity and gives you free bets and promotions. Also if you do manage to win, cashing out your crypto becomes a taxable event even in the UK where gambling winnings are not taxed.

I would love to be proven wrong because a fully global, highly liquid betting exchange would make my job a whole lot easier but based on the behaviour of gamblers in the UK (one of the most liberalised gambling markets on the planet), I can't see it happening. If Augur is going to succeed its way more likely imo that it does so based on more unique markets like you mentioned in the OP or by having markets on degenerate stuff that proper bookies won't touch like deathpools.

Incidently does Augur still have the stipulation that markets have to be phrased as a yes/no question because that is properly unhelpful from a sports perspective.

>>18834010
> professional sports gambler
no you aren't. but if you are, what's your yearly salary?

>>18834392
Yes I am. I quit my job to do it full time last October and made ~£60k from then till March when the sports I bet on got coronaed. Yearly salary isn't even a question that would prove anything one way or another as it would be entirely dependent on starting bankroll size, betting volume, market limits, and model quality all of which will massively vary from gambler to gambler.

>>18834482
I heard professionals have models that calculate weather and other odd factors. Are these in your models?

>>18834497
I bet on badminton, snooker, and tennis and two of those are indoors so it doesn't really affect me. Almost every bit of received wisdom you hear about professional gamblers is bollocks though desu. Personally I would be very surprised if weather is a variable that improves a model's accuracy by a great deal, but every little helps and if it gives you a 0.5% boost in predictive ability and you have access to the data there's no reason not to include it.

>>18834482
> what is an average
what's your yearly take home avg? this is why I know you're a larp.

Should i buy more REP before v.2?

>>18834387

No stipulation on market wording. In fact you can make categorical markets and some very fancy markets by using the scalar payout type.

>>18835005
You haven't got a clue what you are on about, nor can you read apparently. I've only been doing it as my sole means of income since October, as I said, I made £60k between October and March. As a question to prove whether or not I'm a larp, its completely fucking useless. Sports gambling income = amount staked * betting yield, if my starting bankroll was twice as large I would have made twice as much, were it half as large, half as much, if my staking strategy was more aggressive I could have made more, if it was safer I could have made less, if my models yields were half the size I would have made half. Its a question with an answer that proves nothing.

https://pastebin.com/raw/85vymAEa - Here's every badminton bet I've made this year, unfortunately pastebin wordwrapped which screwed up the formatting a bit but all the fixtures, odds, and results are easily verifiable. Would take a hell of a larp to produce a record of thousands of bets right?

>>18834387

Doesn’t betfair dominate the UK and have 10%+ fees? Augur should eventually float toward < 1% fees plus whatever gas costs end up being (probably a dollar for each fill) so it seems to me there is an edge there at least

>>18835236
Betfair has a 2% commission if you choose the no promotions plan or 5% otherwise. The issue isn't so much that Augur or whoever couldn't produce a better product than the current exchange offerings (who seem determined to shot themselves in the foot), its that the lifeblood of an gambling ecosystem is losing gamblers and it is apparently very difficult to attract them to an exchange platform when soft bookmakers are available. If Betfair, the original exchange with all that entails in terms of network effect, and with a huge marketing budget is struggling to attract liquidity and focusing on its sportsbook instead, what hope does an even more complicated system have of capturing the idiot money?

>>18829981
>most promising projects on Ethereum
Coolest kids with down syndrome.

>>18835295

Still lower fees, hopefully not that complex. The V2 version is built to have people sign up like they would for a normal site and use USD (dai).

If the premise is that gambling is dying I don’t think that’s the case or will be for our lifetimes.

What is soft bookmaking exactly? OTC word of mouth bets or something?

>>18835320
Certainly not gambling dying if anything with the opening of the US markets its only going to get bigger.

Basically there are two models of bookmaking, the first is sharp bookmaking like Pinnacle, they profile players into people who know what they are doing (sharps) and people who don't (squares). They start their markets with low limits and higher margins to manage their risk and then raise the limits and lower the margin as they improve the accuracy of their odds based on information they receive from the bets of sharps. Basically proper bookmaking.

Opposed to this is soft bookmaking (Bet365, William Hill, basically everyone else), where rather than hire odds compilers/traders who know what they are doing to manage their risk, they hire cheap mongs and then restrict/ban everyone who is capable of making a profit. They then aggressively advertise to get a constant churn of new idiot money coming in, and give away free bets and promotions like best odds guaranteed and odds boosts to keep them happy.

The problem is that so far the soft bookmaking model has proved way more profitable than any other sports betting business. If you are a losing gambler you are served extraordinarily well by them, its less complex than an exchange, you lose money slower thanks to promotions and less accurate odds, have more markets to bet on, parleys/accumulators etc. This, coupled with some bad decisions from Betfair and Matchbook is why the exchange model is slowly dying in the UK at least.

>The V2 version is built to have people sign up like they would for a normal site and use USD (dai).
This is a very good move, the key is absolutely to create the least amount of friction between degenerates depositing and betting. Ideally they'd have a GUI option that makes it look no different from a sportsbook as well.

>>18835295
>what hope does an even more complicated system have of capturing the idiot money?
With Augur you can bet on everything, not just a sport or politics. People will use it to profit from insider information they have.

>>18835494
Yeah as I said earlier I would expect the more unique (and degenerate) markets to be a bigger selling point than (from the perspective of a losing gambler) being a more complicated, less value providing sportsbook.

The issue again though is liquidity, how do you make your money off insider information if there aren't enough rubes to match your bets with?

I should be clear that I'm not posting to FUD Augur, they've certainly got a better project than the vast majority of the crypto space. I would be delighted if they succeeded, I just think its going to be very hard for them.

>>18835541
Because often insider information sounds counterintuitive, you want bet against it, you can only guess that some event might happen without it. Money will come for the unobvious markets.

>>18830335
haven't seen gosu since vanilla warcraft 3. your strat is gosu though