/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18822000

So this faggot can buy all the cheap real estate and stonks the rest of us peasants can't. Someone give these boomers the pillow already.

>>18822000
because dow has not recovered and then will fall in the next months

>>18822062
Why can't you?

I understand capital limitations, but you can buy and sell right along with him if you have the means.

why does he not have to pay negative interest rates on his cash?

Because there's deflation (i.e. strenghtening of the dollar) coming before the printing machine produces hyperinflation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMkx8OZMd_0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5dGawf83z8

Omegabühmer is waiting for everyone to fuck themselves catching knives and then he will swoop in and give your give your boipussy the Value Investing ramming of a lifetime.

He built his fortune in a different time - insider trading and insane management fees sure, but also companies that had a market cap less than their book value.

The drive to 0% interest rates and the mass investment of 401(k)s and pensions then gave him a tailwind for decades.

Now, though? With actual 0% interest rates and the federal reserve taking the economy onto its balance sheet, he won't ever get a chance to "buy things on the cheap" ever again. We're executing our currency rather than let that happen.

>>18822080
Dude, wtf. you're not supposed to use logic and reasoning when we're bitching about wealthy people

>>18822062

BOOMER BAD
BOOMER BAD

>>18822000
The same guy who bought a shit ton of Delta at the first sign of a dip (the top), then a couple weeks later sold a shit ton of Delta at the bottom? Dude's lost his touch

>>18822000
>selling at a loss
>accumuating more cash
two ways of saying the same thing

>>18822143
No, he did the opposite.

>>18822143
He sold it to be under 10% ownership you mongloid.

Because the Buffet indicator is indicating that we are still in a hyper bubble. https://youtu.be/UC8lzRMpd08

>>18822204
I really don't want to hear it from that guy, maybe try a primary source.

>>18822212
https://youtu.be/JvEas_zZ4fM

>>18822135
Like, suppose real interest rates for treasuries were 100%. Then (to a first approximation) you'd consider it risky to buy any share of stock at a P/E above 1.

Similarly if you live in a time of 10% interest rates, your idea of a "fair" "baseline" P/E will be around 10.

If it's 0.5%? Well, then any stock below 200x is looking like a real bargain.

Then with 0%, negative rates... you're driven out, forced to take risk. And as long as long term inflation still gets pumped above zero, you won't even see inflation, you can't even hold on to cash. There ends up being no risk-free return.

I don't know if an 89 year old man can adapt to that kind of rule change.

>>18822000
he's a senile old pervert who is propped up by his globalist puppet masters. He's hold cash because he missed out on the tech boom and everything he buys goes to shit. He only understands boomershit like airlines, insurance, parts manufacturing, etc

>>18822000
Listen here about Buffett. Check his success story. The guy was lucky more times than not. To regard him a 'guru' that is infallible is just stupid. In 2016 he bought the 4 biggest airlines in the US ... 10% holdings on each! Huge amounts of money. He hadn't sold that shit now. And he suffers BILLIONS in losses.

>>18822246
>And as long as long term inflation still gets pumped above zero, you won't even see *deflation*

>>18822184
>>18822202
t. R*ddit

Will never understand your fascination with this protoboomer

>>18822202
Then why did he buy 45mil worth of Delta at $46/share in the first place? Dumbass

>>18822000
OP j Powell literally said next quarter will be worse than Q1, Buffett is preparing accordingly

>>18822293
No, he isn't Buffett is atm sitting there with big eyes, and wondering what to do as much as we all are.

>>18822246
This. Also based Jerome foiled their strategy by bailing out all of the fallen angels that Buffet usually goes for. Dukb old cucks Buffet and Munger are sitting by the phone waiting for companies looking to make a deal and it's not ringing. Cash is trash.

>>18822135
>>18822246
You are beyond retarded. Nobody really thinks that this market is doing a V shape recovery. Buffet simple doesn't short the market, never did and never will.

Neverthless he knows that the worst is still coming and besides the world best value investor, a lot of other big boys are staying on the side line.

But /biz/ for sure figured it all out and knows that it was all a hoax and we are straight going to 4000 SPY. I know, i know.

You get this but without dividends. IMAGINE BEING A BOOMER.

>>18822303
>137 billions
>no BTC
he is never gonna make it

>>18822346
He just found out about AAPL. You think this old faggot know what a bitcoin is lmao

>>18822000
Because the market is a garbage shitcoin and uncertainty is at an all time high. No one knows where we're gonna be in 6 months time and whales like buffet are gonna pull their money out of the circus and watch the show until the fog of war clears and he can weigh risk and opportunity again without consulting a magic 8 ball.

>>18822315
Exactly. Fed's changed the other half of the equation.

>>18822324
Who controls the Federal Reserve? Bank CEOs worried about getting sucked off by models when they make next quarter's numbers and congressmen worried about getting sucked off by interns after the next rubberstamping of an election.

You think they want their balance sheets to get "fairly valued"? You think they give a rats ass about efficiency and capitalism more than not hearing some boomer call to whine about their 401(k) numbers going down?

They realized they can print and printing causes no short term problems.

Even better, it gives them direct access to fresh cash that lets them buy new things they want.

There are about 8 billion people on the planet, and for bitcoin to have a marketcap of 2 trillion. The average person would have to have around 200 dollars of btc.

>>18822324
>>18822391
But maybe we can half agree. The actual underlying economy definitely won't be V-shaped.

I'm only talking about the paper valuation of financial products like stocks. If the economy takes a 20% hit but P/Es* double, SPY will look more than V-shaped.

*assuming analysts do what they do and include E's beyond the next couple quarters

>>18822456
I don't think it has to plunge forever either though. I don't think these stocks are going to zero.

One might in fact say, Buffett's guesses are as good as anyones. He just the right lucky feel more times than others. And looking at his recent trades for the last 5 years confirms this theory! Fuck Gurus like Buffett or Musk, they all got lucky. And your own stock you research and believe in and just know it will turn great. That is the only way.

>>18822511
The biggest threats to these companies are not financial but existential.

>>18822529
Indeed

>>18822000
he seems like he's on his way out, does it really matter?

>>18822490
>I don't think these stocks are going to zero.
You dont think we'll see bankruptcies by the time this is all over?

>>18822556
No, you are right, he doesn't care anymore. But learn from this career of Buffett. He was full of shit in the end.

>>18822490
That's what I'm rambling about with interest rates and P/E ratios. If you're used to "bargain" meaning 10x, but everyone has cash in their 401(k) and a risk free alternative of 1% (plus zero historical bias or investing experience), they'll generate buy pressure up to 100x. And the plunge will never get to your 10x buy point.

Then even if SPY itself has some crap companies going to zero who won't get bailouts, you still have index money propping them up. Hell, that may itself be enough to stave off their bankruptcy through equity raises.

>>18822246
you're wrong, stocks aren't necessarily better because even at 0% the fed will still buy your bonds for more, bonds have basically become a permission slip to take printed money from the Fed, there is no risk. This is incidentally why negative interest rates are possible and why QE is not as effective anymore in driving the real money into stock.

What you see going into stocks now is just some of the new money, many are still buying bonds because they think at least the Fed will buy those.

Suppose the Fed erodes this trust and starts pumping money directly in stock instead, skipping bonds directly (I believe it is, now?), then the whole debt bubble, which has been underpinning the entire national government, bursts.

You cannot even fathom the whole shitstorm that is about to transpire, once the debt bubble bursts people will stop giving out loans completely. There will be a period of deflation then immediate hyperinflation as the Fed pumps collapsing companies.

Crypto is the only safe haven, currency, debt and (to a degree) stocks is about to be destroyed.

>>18822000
He will be buying shittons of banks soon. Waiting for defaults first.

>>18822080
By the time you can buy in, it will be priced in. I don't get why retards get caught up in what some billionaire icon is doing with his finances.

>>18822000
He’s waiting for a bigger crash obviously

>>18822689
For stocks vs bonds, I'm just going off the post-QE 1 performance. I'm an average slob rather than a direct dealer and SPY's done better than treasuries thanks to leverage or whatever.

>(I believe it is, now?)
It's up to junks and munis, but they haven't yet asked congress for direct equity buying permission.

As for the debt bubble, the printing is not mutually exclusive. The Fed can "provide liquidity" to SPY and the city of Detroit at the same time. And, because of incentives, I think they'll have to.

>>18822723
Then he'll sell shittons of banks a couple weeks later at a loss to stay below the 10% ownership

*quietly coils so that it can moon violently in your path*

>>18822829
Every time I see that mentioned I can't help but read it as
>t. vix

Fucking 4chan.

>>18822000
he's 89. If he invested some of that $137 billion now, he might not get to take it with him

>>18822809
the point is once the Fed starts guaranteeing returns on stocks, it will actually be as you say, everyone will choose stocks instead and the debt bubble will burst.

>>18822820
Why tho? That SEC rule doesn't matter when he goes in for the kill.

In the end Mr.Buffett is an old man, who had great success and luck. But recent trades show, he loses. And loses. And loses. So be yourself. Fuck these people who had a bit of luck and think they know it all therefore. It is all a huge game.

>>18822391
>>18822456
I am not sure if you even follow the market...FED bought 0 corporate bonds so far. FED has decreased their treasury injections right now too. (still high as fuck, but not even closely what it was in March).

This whole meme that the FED has infinite power is ridicolous. Once they start to interact directly in the stock market, they stock markets are done and they know that themselves. They just shout something out and everybody is following them like sheeps. Same shit as the insane March drop was this insane bull rally....we are riding on hopium and is drying out.

>The actual underlying economy definitely won't be V-shaped.
Obviously V shape recovery would mean, that we would already hit ATH.

>I'm only talking about the paper valuation of financial products like stocks. If the economy takes a 20% hit but P/Es* double, SPY will look more than V-shaped.

P/E will increase in the next quarters very rapdily, due to the worst earnings we will ever see. The damage is done and nothing changes that.

We will see where it ends, but it is gonna be a fun shitshow.

>>18822849

>>18822897
I don't know how it'd be as dramatic as that. There's a lot of pension funds and passive investing (e.g. target date funds) setup to buy bonds no matter what. And various people will still prefer stable, lower returns for various reasons.

And worse comes to worst, the entire muni bond market is only $4t. States are, what, like 10? And Feds are barely north of 20. If the bubble shows any signs of bursting the Fed can easily make pretty big dents in those. See Japan.

>>18822080
>HURR WHY CAN'T POOR PEOPLE JUST BUY MORE MONEY

>>18822970
>FED bought 0 corporate bonds so far. FED has decreased their treasury injections right now too. (still high as fuck, but not even closely what it was in March).
Right, the market plunged, they authorized some new facilities, used some existing ones, and the bargain hunters were shut out. If this is a dead cat bounce, nothing stops them from doing that again the moment SPY hits another circuit breaker.

>This whole meme that the FED has infinite power is ridicolous.
I don't think they have infinite power at all. They've just got a lot of short term incentives and a reserve currency they can destroy.

>Once they start to interact directly in the stock market, they stock markets are done and they know that themselves.
I'm just not sure what the mechanism here would be. What makes their situation and target markets different from the BoJ's? Glorious Nippon expanded into ETF purchases and is still around.

>>18822000
This marks the top for cash. Inflation starts now

I don't know, peanut brain
consider what would happen to the markets if headlines read "Warren Buffet goes all in with entire cash reserve"
Warren Buffet doesn't do anything anymore out of social responsibility and the desire to leave a legacy intact

>>18823207
If the headlines read like that right now, nothing would happen. Because Wall Street and everyone else of importance has realised, Buffett is past due. He hasn't made a profitable deal in years now. He is not to be disrespected of course, but he is done.

>>18822998
See Japan? Their property bubble absolutely decimated the middle class. People without stable income has risen by almost 20% of the population since then.

>>18823543
Yeah, these sort of situations generally do suck. Especially for poorfags and middleclassfags. But we're talking about central bank effects on debt/equity valuations and how to profit from them.

>>18823597
well, RE Japan, a government debt bubble is much, much more dangerous than the property bubble Japan had in the 80s
I hope you are right anon but I'm expecting things to get quite bad. the longer they delay it the worse it will get.

>>18823145
The Fed cares nothing for the equity markets. Their efforts were made in an attempt to prevent systemic collapse of the economy. They've been tapering the purchases since their initial large outlays in March, as one anon mentioned, and have made it clear that they will do what's needed while subtly hinting that that is all they will do. That is to say, a secondary goal has been to not overextend themselves.

As was pointed out vis a vis the Japanese bubble, direct purchasing of equities by the BoJ signaled a forthcoming collapse of the Nikkei. Here, it would indicate that the Fed no longer believes stable, organic growth of US companies is possible. That is not a positive sign, and could have a similar result. Moreover, if the indices were to fall again, it would be meaningless to the Fed. Their concerns are the underlying systems that promote a functioning economy and allow for an economic recovery as the effects of the virus began to wane. If equity markets tank again, it is completely irrelevant to them at the moment, as they've done their job. They would have no incentive for intervention.

To buy the dip, shits going to get worse. The coronavirus just knocked a card out and now the entire house is failing.

>>18822511
theres no practical difference between luck and skill. cope.

Anyone with half a brain can see the stock market is about to crash hard, me and Uncle Warren are going to sit here nice and comfy in cash and then scoop up the bargain basement bags you'll all be holding and crying about in June. I sold 95% of my holdings last week

>>18822000
What makes you guys think Buffet is going to tell people what he is actually doing? Prices literally move off rumors that he is thinking about buying a stake in something.

>>18822000
Where does he keep his money? In an IRA account? If he puts it in a savings account then he can only be fda insured 250k and will like 100s of millions

>>18824183
You tell that to Buffett after losing multi billions on his us airline gamble

>>18824205
Real chads short on the way down + cash

>>18824282
I don't trade CFDs because I'm not a teenager and/or desperate

>>18824241
Probably under a mattress

>>18824205
It’s already priced in.

>>18824316
Okay boomer

>>18822000
lol 137?

http://freetofindtruth.blogspot.com/2018/02/33-104-137-september-18-1793-date.html
http://freetofindtruth.blogspot.com/2018/02/17-23-33-119-137-mueller-indicts-13.html
http://freetofindtruth.blogspot.com/2018/05/33-84-137-trumps-back-and-forth-with.html

Oh no no no

>>18824336
priced in! priced in!
like a parrot but with less brain cells

>>18824363
Ya... but these retards do not read, or listen to what i say... if i had said buffet is a hero fun da Booz. this thread would have been full of appreciators.

you fags on here are dumb... cash is still king if you didn't know. Buffett, gates, soros, all keep cash

>>18822000
Because the recent crash was from the economy entering recession Q4 2019

The corona crash is still coming

>>18822106
Based Raoul Pal been dropping redpill hydrogen bombs the past year or so

>>18824425
You are the next retard. Cash is crap, worth nothing! But that doesn't mean you should invest like 'Guru's' like buffett or musk are doing. They are fallible. They are lucky bastards until it ends.Even Bezos' time is ticking. And he knows it. What I am trying to say is, invest in things that YOU really believe in, whatever that may be, potato growers, whatever.

>>18824469
>Cash is crap

Not USD

The USD shortage will be wrecking ball to the world economy

Retards think the fed is "printing dollars" or some such nonsense they don't understand there is a difference between bank reserves and actual USD and even if they were printing dollars it's still not even close to enough AND even then they are simply filling the gap not providing actual stimulus

>>18824516
You really believe that. I can tell.

>>18824469
>Cash is crap, worth nothing!
lmao, why do I come on this damn board

>>18822141

This chap gets it.

>>18824544
I don't know? But what I said is true.. Cash is worth nothing

>>18822202
>He sold it to be under 10% ownership you mongloid.
Cope

>>18824587
If cash is worth nothing then why did the nice jews give me a house in return for some? nonce

>>18824469
>>18824587
>poorfag cope: the post

>>18822000
He’s preparing to go all in on link on the next dip

>>18824469
this guy doesn't get it

>>18824643
Because you live in this system as it is. It ends now. No more Jooz to blame, you go live on the streets or whatever I care, and we all carry on

>>18822000
>Has enough cash to buy an african country
>Still gambling
Why is he still grinding. Isnt hundreds of billions enough? Has he ever gotten out of that suit and enjoyed life? All I need is half a mil to neet in my shithole yet this fuck is still not satisfied after a literal lifetime of x1000

>>18824652
I am probably the only multi millionaire in this thread. Honestly... ffs

>>18824652
Don't worry once the hyperdeflation sets in the retards who think debt are assets will be selling for pennies on the dollar

>>18824699
>resorts to LARPing
Ok kid

>>18824681
he doesnt do it for the money, he does it because he cant get his dick hard, never could

>>18824458
Seems like he leans on technical analysis really hard. Seems like voodoo to me, maybe I'm wrong tho

>>18824773
LARPING??? I inherited many million euros plus real estate to make it close to 20 millions... you think I am lapping because tis id /biz/ but I am to lapping anon. And there are others like me who are returning now

>>18822000
>Be fearful when others are fearful. Be greedy when others are greedy.

Buffet is struck by the boomer bug. Corona scares the fuck out of everybody over 40. This is literally your chance to prosper if you're a young investor, just need to play it smart and take advantage of boomers going full boomermode.

>>18822000
nice doubles and trips
>accumulating more cash
you mean he's dumping and preparing to buy when the time is right?

also these >>18822761 >>18822166

>>18822253
Because he buys and holds you retard. That's literally his strategy

>>18824950
Sure! But don't tell me the airlines were meant to be a hold ;) He fucked up.

>>18824950
Well, friend, in this case he suffers. And he knows it too

Of course he did cash. The crisis was announced. The real struggle starts now. The horizon is very cloudy

>>18825025
How does he suffer? If you knew anything about buffett's strategy, you'd know he doesn't give a shit about the price of a security that he's bought. He literally just holds. Who cares if his company loses a couple billion in value. He has more than enough cash to cover it.

>>18822062
Move to the crypto market. Fuck stonks. Leave boomers holding the bags.

>>18824845
>you think I am lapping because tis id /biz/ but I am to lapping anon
Way to sperg to the point of incoherency, LARP

>>18825317
How drunk are you Anon? By he i did not mean Buffett obviously. And as far as Buffett goes. any strategy that makes me buy 10% of all us airlines, just to lose billions, spare me. I can do better

Idiot.

>>18823713
BS. Bernanke said the goal of QE was to create a wealth effect.

>>18824676
oh right, fiat currency is 'ending now'. That clears things up - thanks I'm going to go burn it all seeing as it's going to be worthless soon.

>>18825962
Do you not understand that whatever fia currency is, to the masses will be the same? You will not lose a single can't through the conversion.

>>18826369
I'm taking the piss...

im gonna fuck this old faggot up

>>18826407
It doesn't matter what currency is on your bank account. It will be all the same currency sooner or later. If yours the use it will be worth more than the zimbabwe dollar, one way or the other, even if digital. Nothing will change

>>18822248
>he's a senile old pervert who is propped up by his globalist puppet masters. He's hold cash because he missed out on the tech boom and everything he buys goes to shit. He only understands boomershit like airlines, insurance, parts manufacturing, etc
this.

the dumbass doesn't even know how to use an oven. he dosn't even use a computer. stop talking about him on here. hes no one

>>18826434
I really hope for you, you are not talking about me. I hope you are not quite that dumb.

>>18826504
shut up faggot

>>18822000
He lost so much in this last big crash I think he's actually wounded and afraid now.

>>18826589
No.
Make me, show me, you big mouth

>>18826611
The question is why a guy with literally billions while having only about 5-10 years maximum to live, is even fucking wasting his time to play the game longer and trying to make even more money. this is just so sad and pathetic. I really hope this faggot is opting out very soon to make the world a better place.

>>18826682
He has kids. Generational wealth has no upper limit.

>>18826666
>make me
You really are 12 years old, huh?

>>18826728
In the end we are 12 years old again aren't we? Some of us with money, some of us without....

>>18826666
Checked

>>18822106
>coming
Its already started.