/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18763833

you're fuckin right I do

>>18763833
Yea, you're going to be here seething when he does. Really no different than the last couple of years

>>18763833
I think it's extremely likely. You really think Biden isn't going to get completely rekt in a debate?

1000%

Who is he running against? He didn’t have it locked up, but the DNC is running Joe and that is a guaranteed grand salami for Trump.

Biden legitimately has dementia. He is at the point where if he was your father or grandfather you would take his car keys away. So until the DNC convention where they may force a substitute, yes. Its Trump 2020.

>>18763833
Trump is finished this time. And I can prove it mathematically.

>>18763843
Drumpfy ain’t gonna win. It’s demographically impossible, especially with mail in voting.

He already won, some of you just don’t know that yet

>>18763914
See
>>18763917

>>18763917
Mail in voting is not a constitutional right you leftist faggot shill. It will never be implemented. Voter ID, however, will.

>>18763876
Biden will never debate Trump. He'll be gone before the convention. The Tara Reade story has legs, and isn't going away. Which is hilarious, with all the usual suspects "endorsing" him.
At this point, I think even Trump would just say no to debating him, because Biden is clearly not all there anymore. As classless as Trump is, he's too classy for that.

>>18763917
NY state govt couldn't even manage to get mail in ballots used for their April presidential primary. You think the federal govt, with far more resistance, would seriously implement it by this Nov?

>>18763936
See where your new home is

>>18763937
It’s going to happen, retard. We’re going to have mail in voting because of COVID. Even if we don’t, demographics have changed enough that it’s nearly impossible for him to get the electoral votes.

>>18763988
It’s Trump with the gibs now though

>>18763876
Are you the same retard that keeps insisting in every thread that Trump is actually good at debates?
He isn't even allowed to speak freely anymore for fear of destroying the GOP lol

>>18763988
Haha yeah that’s exactly their plan. Quarantine the US and make them all vote from home. It’s not going to happen you delusional faggot. If you can’t get your ass to the polling station you have no right to vote.

>>18764056
No, I'm not, you're spending way too much here my friend. Also Trump might fair poorly at an actual academic type debate, but in a presidential debate he is a Grade A shit talker and normies love that shit

>>18763988
This isn’t American idol faggot.

>>18764103
>but in a presidential debate he is a Grade A shit talker and normies love that shit
Only his core base does, it will be hard to appeal to moderates by talking shit, specially after his disastrous handling of the covid crisis.

>>18764161
>disastrous handling of the Wuhan virus
You shills suck at your job

>>18764086
Found the retard who hasn’t read the news in three months. Back to /r/t_d, you literal brainlet.

>>18764086
Found the zoomer who’s never voted. We do it all the time with absentee ballots. It’s going to happen.

>>18764194
Get fucked Mossad . We are coming for your Jewish bloodlines.

>>18764161
Joe Biden can’t speak in complete sentences. He hasn’t made a coherent point in any speech at any point in his campaign, and it’s really not controversial to point this out. Everyone sees it.

>>18764226
/pol/ schizo

>>18764236
learn some new insults shill boy. Schizo is heavily used by kike cyber agents. Why not tell me to have sex?

>>18764236
Also the Jew fears the schizo. Why do you think they are tranquilized in mental health facilities?

>>18764267
>>18764289
You’re the retard throwing conspiracy theories that have nothing to do with the topic at hand. Maybe you should learn some new arguments.

>>18764177
Sorry bud, but the GOP memo leaked, everyone knows you're trying to hide Trump's mismanagement by screaming China

>>18763833
To Dems and those leaning left ...
Do you regret voting for Barack Obama in 2012?
Had you voted for Mitt Romney we'd be in his second term instead of this dumpster fire american hellscape.

>>18764267
have sex schizo

>>18764229
Sure thing, retard

>>18764332
Oh I’m not screaming China. I’m screaming Israel.

>>18764369
Have you ever known an elderly person that fell to dementia or Alzheimer’s? It is incredibly obvious, and would be sad if it wasn’t funny because fuck who Joe Biden was when he was playing with a full sack of marbles

>>18764475
Ok schizo

>>18764567

>>18763833
Probably, biden come off as senile

>>18764229
The only reason why democrats could possibly want him is so that Ruth Bader Ginsberg can retire and they can get another liberal on the supreme court. If trump wins again its game over for democrats

>>18764663

Trump single-handedly saved the market from crashing in a global depression, so he gets my vote.

>>18763843
Where can I go to bet on trump winning and making an easy 10x?

It's really up in the air, both are shit. We need a green new deal from a green new party. We need Jesse.

>>18764749
>green new deal
No

>>18764737
Only reason it hasn’t crashed yet is the federal reserve money printing machines. It’ll come.

>>18763917
Have you met a zoomer that isn't a turbothot?

>>18764749

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOlqoKHFNRI

>>18764086
Voting is a constituional right, yet Republicans make it as difficult as possible for people to do so. Wouldn't the opposite be true if they truly cared about upholding the constituation? Everbody knows that they stand no fucking chance of winning if they don't cheat. Fuck these traitorous snake fucks; crying muhh deficit, freeze peach and constitution only when it suits them.

Why can't Republicans just fucking modernise their party so it appeals to modern day voters... Not shit all over the constituation, sacrifice anyone and anything, just to keep these rich oil boomers on life support.

I don't give a fuck about political parties or who wins, but nothing I hate more than shameless partisan fucks with absolutely no convictions.

>>18763833
Hard to tell. His fragile ego and all the retarded things he's been saying recently might actually be his downfall. Biden would probably be a better president overall, but the cult of personality for Trump is pretty strong. Republican voters like to see a fellow dumb fuck in the white house, who says the same dumb shit they're all thinking. Though his approval rating is pretty shockingly low, even among Republicans, especially during a crisis where people normally rally around the ruling party.

Trump already gave the dems enough ammunition every time he opened his mouth, they just have to use it. Biden should just bring a tape recorder to the debate and let Trump debate himself. He can't keep hiding behind "fake news" and "sarcasm" when everything he does is peak autism.

>>18764161
>>18764056
This is delusion of the highest order. Trump "beat" Hilary Clinton in the 2016 debates. If you think he didn't, it doesn't matter what you think because he won the election. He "wins" by being an arrogant asshole and making fun of/insulting the other candidate while dismissing everything thrown at him. He says nothing substantive and holds no convictions.

You think fucking Joe Biden, who is falling asleep in short live taped segments, is going to fare better than the snake in the grass that was Hilary? You're absolutely fucking delusional. Biden can read off a teleprompter still, was at one point a decent politician, and can recite platitudes like nobody's business. Beyond that, he's a frail old man with early stage dementia. Trump will chew him up and spit him out without ever saying a single "smart" thing. It'll just be a repeat of the 2016 playbook but with the Dem candidate looking confused and lost at the end of the debate, rather than snarky and self-righteous.

>>18764475
(((Just a coincidence)))

Absolutely yes.

>>18764749
I voted for him in Minnesota in 98.
People say he wasn't great as governer, but he lowered taxes, balanced the budget, and left us with a surplus. As an independent, he stuck to his own beliefs instead of siding with a party platform. All in all it was a good time for Minnesota.

>>18764822
>Trump won in 2016 because of the debates
Based retard

>>18764772
It won't though. We will print our way out of this. Financial markets and the economy are no longer correlated.

>Hey biz, do you think the majority off the country is drop dead retarded and believes trump "is smart" and "is competent" and "reads words"

Yeah, i do.

>>18764864

>>18764879
Not what I said you fucking ingrate. Your reading comprehension is subhuman. Post skin color immediately you roach.

>>18764822
Trump would be easy as shit to be if anyone just used a semi clever strategy
>Hey Donald, if you can tell me the difference between the shiites and the sunis i will dorp out right now
>Hey Donald, if you release your tax returns i will drop out right now
>Hey Donald if you can answer any one of these 30 basic quesitons correclty ill drop out right now.

or even
>hey donald why are you such a whiny emotional person who cant keep it together when a twitter celeb criticizes you?

>>18763843
what site fren? ill vote for him so we can win

>>18763833
Easily. Biden was already weak as fuck now he's doing horrendous damage control over a metoo allegation that hasn't even fully unfolded. Also, the Democrats are in a civil war. It was the Libs who weaponized sexual assault allegations, funny watching it come back to bite them in the ass

>>18764914
It's implicitly stated by your claim that he beat Hillary because he won the election, which is pure nonsense. You can perform quite poorly during debates and still win the election, as debates have a rather modest effect on voters.
You can keep writing fanfiction about Trump destroying Biden at debates, doesn't change the fact Trump is bad at debates, and that debates don't matter much.

american anons bets give 1.30 to democrats to win most seat in house of representatives. so i don’t really understand usa political system but democrats always have more seats, right? and this won’t be change in the next elections right?

>>18765002
Well, careful with that thinking.
Does trump know anything? no.
Is he competent? no.

that doesnt mean he cant dominate a debate by being snarky and poking you.
And how he cucked the republican primaries certainly helped him win.

>>18763914
Pls show proof.

>>18764575
>iran blames the jews
Shocking. Did Palestinians as well? Big if true.

>>18764177
Are you implying that Trump would have reacted differently, had WHO declared a worldwide emergency a month earlier? The guy who still didn't treat it seriously even after a worldwide emergency was called? Then after 2 months when those 5 cases turn into a million, suddenly it's everyone elses fault.

Do you think every country just looks at WHO's twitter and say's "Yep, nothing to see here folks. WHO said all is gucci". As hard as it is to believe smart people do exist in the US and they were probably monitoring this shit from the very start. And you know, advising the president on it, if he ever chooses to listen. Maybe Trumps first move should have been to send in CDC, so the US would have first hand information on the situation. Or did they not have the budget for it?

I guess it's much easier to blame everyone else. Very beyta male behaviour.

>>18763917
>thinking there's going to be mail in voting
They're dismantling USPS as we speak. Trump is going to win with something insane like only winning the vote of 20% of all eligible voters.

>>18764950
Betway.com

>>18763833
Post more JUSTed Donalds, they always make me smile.

>>18763833
i would bet an entire pay check on it.

Legitimately asking... is there a way to do this?
Can i bet on who will win the election?

>>18764952
>biden weak as fuck
>6 point lead based on current poll aggegates
>Trumps crisis approval rally lowest of any president in history
I mean, at this point in time Biden is looking stronger than Trump. But it's pointless to speculate this early on.

>metoo allegations
Unsubstantiated claims by one person. Unless some undisputable evidence comes out, this will have inconsequential impact.

>dem civil war
>Bernie endorsed Biden
>AOC endorsed Biden
>Warren endorsed Biden
>Chomsky endrosed Biden
>even TYT's eternally seething faggot Cenk endorsed Biden
Where is the civil war? All the progressive officials that matter are endorsing Biden. The spergs on twitter and leftypol are not representative of the dems voting base. These ultra progressives/tankies/bernie or busters are literally a tiny fringe portion of the democratic voters. Nobody gives a fuck about their opinions.

If anything Biden being a centrist boomer is gonna get more of the centre-right voters, than if he were to even try appealing to those "progressive" autists.

>libs weaponizing sexual allegations
uninformed autism not even worth addressing.

>>18764811
You need to go back

>>18765617
Lmfao. How much for your level of C O P E?

>>18765617
the mental gymnastics in this post are astounding.

>>18765713
>>18765968
Point to a single part of my post that's wrong? I wasn't stating my opinion, but the available information.

>>18763876
it's going to be trump/biden vs clinton/obama (michael)

>Within moments, the President was shouting -- not at the aides in the room, but into the phone -- at his campaign manager Brad Parscale, three people familiar with the matter told CNN. Shifting the blame away from himself, Trump berated Parscale for a recent spate of damaging poll numbers, even at one point threatening to sue Parscale. It's not clear how serious the President's threat of a lawsuit was.

>Business and Finance...

>>18765671
>wahhh you're not allowed to say bad things about trump in my safe space
you need to go back

>>18766326
Three people familiar with the matter..
Fake News!

Trump is Regan 2.0. It doesn't matter what he does people like him because of his character. Biden is going to get BTFO in the debates.

>>18763970
>Trump wouldn't debate Dementia Joe
>he's too classy for that
lmao. Biden just needs to lie low meantime. Trumps biggest opponent is his own mouth. And at the moment, he's losing to it, badly.

>>18763833
Totally. He's done nothing but get stronger electorally since taking office. Meanwhile, no one gives a shit about his opponent.

>>18766674
>He's done nothing but get stronger electorally since taking office
I don't think liberals understand this when explaining how Biden is going to win. All the data I have seen suggests not only that he's much more popular now but he's raising larger amounts of money. He's going to 3x the marketing budget he had in 2016.

>>18763833
I don't really care either way as both parties are just owned by the elites, but he isn't exactly up against decent competition. Republicans don't have anyone that could replace him and the best the Dems had was Yang but they fucked him over. So all that is left is Biden and he's not exactly sentient anymore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHfYuGAjpL8

>>18763833
DUDE LOOK AT HIS HEAD

>>18763843
shill the gambling website faggot those odds are insane

>>18763833

Trump seems like a shoe-in for another 4 years at this point. Idk if the DNC is trying to lose on purpose, but my immediate reaction as an UNINFORMED voter is to just say fuck you. This is honestly the best you can do when so much is on the line? Go fuck yourself. There's some sort of belief that they are entitled to my vote just because they are against Trump as if Biden would be any better. Na. Go. Fuck. Your. Self. Trump would unironically be better than Biden. The only saving grace for Biden might be the people he surrounds himself with that might actually be able to handle shit properly. He has routinely shown he is not fit to be president, and unlike Trump, Biden's base will not defend his flaws or excuse his past because they are the "good" guys and have "morals". Complete hypocrites and any respect that was left for the process is gone. You did this to yourselves and you're going to be confused with the outcome unless your intention was to lose all along. Anyone who actually gives a shit should be focusing on working to make their local communities better right now, because anything beyond that appears to be a shit show and you're just going to be setting yourself up to be disappointed time and time again. I pity anyone that ends up "winning".

>>18766897
It's betway, but I wouldn't call that insane for 55%+ popular vote.

>>18766897
over 55% of the popular vote is a fucking insanely dumb bet

>>18764339
No replies, quite telling

>>18767042
>>18767052
nevermind, its a normie bookie without btc

>>18764339
Obama was a Republican lite who was good at selling himself to the left.

>>18763843
Oh hi Mark, I see you're here posting shit on the God Emperor again.

>>18763833
do do do dooooo

>>18767732
Imagine not being massively up since the election.

>>18767707
Who the fuck wants to work in manufacturing?? It’s 2020. Let the robots do those jobs

>>18767749
Lots of people. Not to mention all of the secondary economic stimulus brought about by peripheral work needed to keep the factory pumping and by the dollars spent by all those factory workers in the local economy rather than in Shanghai.

>>18766326
>CNN
laughingwhores.jpg

>>18763843
wtf is this site?

>>18763833
Yes. He just pumped the markets & bought the loyalty of Boomers & Israel alike. He's gonna win again.

>>18767842
>lots of people want to work manufacturing
>lots of people
>want
Nobody wants to stand at a conveyor belt for 12 hours a day, bolting pieces of metal together, then developing arthritis and back problems you can't afford to treat . It's a garbage tier job. The only reason these people "want" to do these jobs, is because they have no other skills after doing it their whole life. The US hasn't been a manufacturing economy since the 70s. Republicans attempting to gain a few votes by keeping this dead horse on life support is not gonna last much longer.

This whole thing is a huge waste of time and nothing but a short term bandaid. They could be putting their resources into re-education programs and promoting more useful jobs. Not to mention generally increasing the overall quality of education in all those flyover manufacturing states, so they don't have to deal with this in the future.

>>18768134
>>18767732
>>18767748
>>18767732
He pumped jobs, then the market followed suit. Well, the market is also predictive so it started going up as soon as he won because people who actually put their money where their mouth is knew Trump would make a kick ass economy. It's all about USA jobs baby.

>>18768238
>being this much of a soft entitled pussy.

>>18763970
I don't know if the dems are smart enough not to run Biden. All they had to do last election was not run Hillary. They probably think they can load Biden full of pep pills and keep him hopped up on stage long enough for him not to drift off into a sleepy grandpa story.

>>18763843
This will be the map Fwend your going to be just fine. I'll post why in the next few posts.

Now I'll share a couple of charts that show the ideological swing of the big 6 swing states from 2000 to 2016 as well as how much more Republican states voted from 2012 to 2016.

Taking a look at the six big swing states you see even states who might shy away from calling themselves "Republican" like Wisconsin, Minnesota or New Hampshire still have gotten more conservative over time. Now considering this conservative bent how would the election play out if the Democrats are successfully branded socialists.

Now let's dig a little deeper into NH, Hillary won the state by fewer then 3,000 votes. NH has changed its absentee voter law for out of state students who we know voted overwhelmingly liberal.

As for Coloardo, Trump lost by a margin of 4.91%. However, Coloardo also had tremendous support for two conservative and Republican leaning independents. Gary Johnson captured 5.18% of the vote and Evan McMullin captured 1.04%. That's a 6.22% share of the electorate that we can assume would only benefit Trump in 2020.

Very similar situation in Nevada, Trump lost by 2.42%. Johnson captured 3.32%

Maine at Large, dramatically drifted more Republican in 2016, with Trump losing the vote by 2.96%, and Johnson capturing over 5% of the electorate.

And Finally, just want to discuss some other interesting states like Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey. These states drifted dramatically more Republican compared to 2012, and I wonder what psychological effect Pennsylvania flipping will have on voters in these states. For the past two decades many people have felt their votes don't matter unless they are in a swing state, seeing these new swing states emerging could we see enough voters energized to possible flip these states.?

>>18768432
god my dick is hard already

These are the outcomes of the three models discussed in the Moody's report, with a voter turnout variable throw in. It also shows the average of the three models in order to predict the outcome.

The pocketbook model takes into account gas prices, the housing market and real personal income( Inflation, Wages, etc.) On a state-by-state basis.

The stock market model focuses on projections of the S&P500.

The unemployment model focuses on a state-by-state
natural state of unemployment, with a few other personal finance variables.

This is the Moody's model with lowest turnout. With Covid, and Bidens enthusiasm gap. Seems pretty possible.

>>18768500
I got two more charts for you Anon, this is the Enthusiasm gap mentioned above.

The language /biz/ understands best! Cash on Hand as of March 31st.

>>18764811
Hello rebbit

>>18765288
PredictIt

>>18763833
Yeah. Everyone who owns stocks will vote for Cheeto Man.

>>18768432
>Virginia
>Red

>>18763833
Off course he'll win

>>18765053
No, we have two chambers in Congress.
The House of Representatives which is based on Population and the Senate in which every state gets two. We have elections every 2 years but not all seats are up. So there's a way for the balance to change.

Don't people usually have increased faith in leaders during a crisis? That could help Trump

>>18763833
they are both retarded. america is DONE

>>18768528
>>18768547
Are you seriously using a forecast from september to predict elections post-covid? lol

>>18769212
Yes because the most important indicator was Turnout, in our situation I expect Turnout to be very low A.K.A landslide.

>>18769381
You know these models predict a loss if the economy is in recession, right?

>>18764745
>>18764950
>>18765288
>>18766897
>>18767707
>>18768041

Betway.com faggots

I can only put $153 on Trump to win with 55% of the vote though, pretty lame. They do have quite a few different ways to bet on it though.

>>18769381
Do they take into account the lack of turnout from staunch Republican boomers that have died/will die from upper respiratory disease before election day?

>>18763833
trump wins.
i wish i could say what i think is going on, but nah.
if i'm right, brennan is probably gonna get defenestrated.

>>18769381
>>18769746

Here is the thing about turnout in american elections. If there is a high turnout the Republicans tend to lose because relatively apolitical joe americans and a large chunk of democrats don't show up to vote unless they like a candidate, but republicans always turn up to vote.There are a 'vote blue no matter who' people, but republicans far outnumber these people. Independents tend to be more blue voters than red voters if they show up as well.

Republican victories are from just republican voters, democrats need to attract independents to win, so if lots of americans show up to vote the Republicans tend to lose, if only political people show up to vote the republicans tend to win. Donald trump has brought this to the extreme with him being very unpopular with independent voters but super popular within the party (an almost cult like republican base, if you will).

>>18770002
>democrats need to attract independents to win
The problem with that is all the data suggests that Trump is very popular among independents.

>>18769584
False read my post. There is a stock market model and a model weighed heavily on gas prices. Both are looking good to Trump. The third model is the unemployment model that one has the ability to hurt him.

>>18770002
All data I've read finds that Independents vote Republican 2/3 times.

>>18769930
Say what you wish you could say. Tell me what you think is going to happen.

He'll probably lose because he's done nothing to stop demographics from slipping furthers into the democrat's favor and his inability to fulfill a single campaign promise has left his most enthusiastic supports from 2016 apathetic towards him. Hillary was the worst candidate imaginable and she still only lost by a slim margin in several key swing states, so at this point I imagine the democrats could run a literal corpse as their candidate and still win.

>>18770037

lol I'd like to see this "data". Don't try to pretend Trump won because he was popular instead of because Hillery was even more unpopular.

>>18769691
Sorry man I misclicked, I meant to call OP Mark. You're cool.

>>18770002

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-udia087i-E

>>18770085
If the stock market is underperforming, chances are against him. The stocks may recover by the election, but unemployment will skyrocket, and the current crisis may hit his popularity even furthet
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-coronavirus-economy-idUSKBN2131C8

>>18763833
100% he will. The current trend for presidential office is that each president will always serve 8 years unless there's a scandal. Trump is puppet of the deep state.

>>18765617
Just like the polls predicted a Hillary landslide eh? Lmaoooooooooooo

>>18770599
>posting a video by that simp unironically

>>18771858

Is he wrong?

>>18763833
Yes, not definitely the democrats paedophile satan worshippers

What the fuck is this /pol/
Anyone who supports trump is a literal drop dead fucking retard.
How is this still a question to anyone

Its literally these people
>>18772250
The same people who called themselves patriots forevr yet threw their principles and their spines in the trash for a cult of personality.
Yes i mad.

>>18763876
This guy can't even talk lmao