/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18686923

>>18686923
Reality.

>imagine going all in and it goes worse than 1929
>tfw bagholding for over a decade while everyone else scoops up the real cheapies
>imagine bagholding and the companies you bought go bankrupt, no 10 year for recovery they're at 0

>>18686923
Being able to massively outperform it in the longrun by trading

>>18686923
You are aware that the technological singularity that is only a few decades away is causing immense upward pressure on the US stock market? It takes shutting down the entire fucking planet just to set it back 8 months, imagine where this fucker is going to be in 5-10 years.

>>18686951

That's what I'm thinking, which is why I'm holding cash, but now I'm kinda FOMO because it really looks like we've bottomed in march

>>18686923

The fact that this is the start of a multi-year bear and the S&P 500 will probably bottom at 1500 best case, and probably fall well below 1000. So I am not going to lose 50%+ of my money buy buying now. I'll start averaging in in 2-3 years when it looks like the bottom.

>>18686923
thats a man and he is HOT

>>18686984
u did miss out. u people think a 1929 event is likely when those dipshits at the time had no clue how to fix it

>>18686984
If you really get the itch to put money in then do utilities, gold, and/or treasuries. This rally isn't a bull market and all of those have good risk:reward profiles in this environment.

>>18686923
It’s going to crash pretty soon. The stay at home guidelines are going to be extended indefinitely. My office has extended it indefinitely.

>>18687021

Who fix what? You act like someone needs to "fix" the stock market. Nothing guarantees the stock market goes up. And there are lots of people that make money if the stock market goes down. You naive newfag investors are in for a harsh reality check in a few months. Look at the chart even just 20 years ago and imagine buying the first dip after that peak in 2000. You would be bag holding that shit for 6 years before you just broke even, right before the next 50%+ crash. Now every indicator around was screaming overvalued for the past year, and now there is probably going to be a 10% GDP drop in a single quarter at least. Shit started happening for corona too.

>>18687021
The average iq was much higher in 1929. People today are literally retarded. Electronics are why it is not obvious. We’ve fucked ourselves good this time.

>>18686972
Are you aware people have been making this exact argument since the 1800s?

>>18686972
We might be in a new Dark Age with all these niggers and third worlders getting all uppity in America and Europe. There was a reason for the progress you mentioned. Things have changed.

>>18686972
Moore's law isn't very applicable anymore because of physical limitations on the size of transistors.

>>18687148
Reminds me of how western economists are constantly predicting africa is on the verge of a massive economic boom. Lol no. At least as long as I've been alive I've been reading that the boom is just around the corner.

>>18687230
Well to be fair, it is possible the compute medium will change again. Although I generally agree with the sentiment that trends don't last forever. They eventually run up against limiting factors.

>>18687239
Once developing nations in Africa finally get their shit together there is no reason their economies shouldn't skyrocket. Resource rich land, and if they do get their shit together they will absolutely take their resources back from those exploiting them. Timing this os equivalent to correctly timing any boom/bust cycle but when you see some stable growth in Africa, if you ever do, you should absolutely invest.

>> 18687071

It might just be my FOMO kicking in real hard, but after watching the coronavirus task force + all the news it just seems like we're going to start reopening next week, some stats already started "REOPENING THE ECONOMY" but I guess we'll see

>>18687230

The more important thing is that doubling transistor count doesn't double processing power which isn't anything even related to doubling worker productively, which is what the singularity is about. The singularity implies computers can self design themselves. That's now how programming works, at least how we understand it today. Its not a question of processing power, fundamentally we don't know how to design something that can do that.

>>18687071
This. This board is retarded for advocating for and thinking this is going to end anytime soon, and believing this is a bull market is wishful thinking. The states in the south that are re-opening early will either exceed NYC level catastrophes or be forced to lock down again shortly afterward due to mounting public pressure when their exceedingly obese and retarded populations start dying.

Will we see restrictions being eased? Probably. But once the market realizes that this is here to stay for the next year if we don't want a resurgence that is even worse, expect a mass sell-off and Great Depression 2 unless Jerome sets the printers to overdrive, and that's only delaying the inevitable. The fundamentals are fucked and will remain fucked for years after this. If you think otherwise you're a delusional faggot.

>>18687271
The genetic limit of sub Saharan IQ is like 75 average. That's the reason they always have to have someone come in and boss them around to get anything done. Use to be Europeans then they left and things fell apart. Now the Chinese are moving in. Watch "Empire of Dust" for a good illustration of this.

>>18687230
This shit transcends transistors.

>>18687325
This is unbelievably ignorant. What about all the times that civilization and technology moved backwards and had to be re-discovered. You really think that can't happen again? There are massive disgenic trends occurring globally. Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution.

>>18687271
The only boom they will ever get is if whites cultivate the land, like in South Africa. Or chinks use the niggers as slaves.

>>18687359
>Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution.
This. Last great mind was Kelly Johnson. Can’t imagine anyone in the last 100 years coming close to the intelligence of Newton or Tesla.

>>18687391
He posts on 4chan but his interests are lolis and trannies

>>18687325
The primary driver of that technological and scientific growth is population growth. The curves are practically identical, because the larger and more free a population is the more able it is to innovate and achieve, forming a positive feedback loop. There's a lot of indications that we're approaching the limit here pretty quickly. Not just physical limits, as with transistors, but demographically as well. As populations modernize and develop they stop reproducing (stage five of the demographic transition model). Once most of the world capable of innovating (i.e. everyone but niggers) hits their carrying capacities, the rate of innovation will only dwindle as it becomes harder and harder to innovate.

Also >>18687359 points out that this trend is hardly a perfect exponential function, and furthermore growth and innovation will never be uniformly distributed. Also >>18687391 combined with the smaller overall population growth doesn't seem to bode well for the future of muh singularity.

>>18687422
This. It's probably me, I had a lot of potential but I have squandered it all.

>>18687359
>Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution
Source?

>>18687436
I can't stand singularity Niggers. Seems to be silicon valley types finding a substitute for religion. For example, many of the gurus predictions about when life extending tech will be commercialized is mysteriously right before the end of their own life expectancy.

I studied physics and one of the ways you disprove someones theories is by showing that under certain conditions their math predicts a singularity (going to positive or negative infinity). It's fucking stupid to predict any technology will inevitably increase forever.

>>18687436
pop growth follows tech, not the other way round.

>>18687490
Whatever, short then. I'm long humanity and gonna get rich.

>>18687506
Even if he's right it's not like tech is going to stagnate in our lifetime

>>18687359
We have a saying "zoom out faggot"

>>18687487
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289685355_The_secular_decline_in_general_intelligence_from_decreasing_developmental_stability_Theoretical_and_empirical_considerations

In before Flynn Effect. Flynn himself admits that the effect is only on IQ not G. Specifically people are getting better at taking IQ tests but G (general intelligence factor) is not increasing. Anyway Flynn effect has already been overtaken by Woodly effect (decrease in the genetic component of G).

>>18687524
We're talking about investment strats within this lifetime so your comment is irrelevant.

>>18687524
Innovation has already slowed down a lot since the 60s. Read Peter Theil to get a better perspective on this.

>>18687524
>>18687552
BTW lots of quantitative metrics on this including patents per capita, slower turnover in top 10 corporations, and infrastructure stagnation.

Here's a good starting place if you've just now heard of these ideas: https://www.wsj.com/video/uncommon-knowledge-is-innovation-slowing-down/BCAC2809-600A-42CA-A06D-D30702F0C598.html

BTW this has a huge impact on long term investing strategy.

>>18686923
Because it's a bull trap

>>18687495
Why is that the most technologically advanced countries now have consistently the lowest population growth? Tech and population growth form a feedback loop but only up to a certain point. The fewer geniuses a population creates the harder it will be to innovate going forward, especially when the low-hanging fruit has all been plucked. How is this not intuitive?

>>18687490
That's basically the trend, yeah. I'm familiar with these sorts of people because I work in tech. I think it's also partially informed by a predisposition optimistic/idealistic thinking. This is probably why the same demographic/IQ range tends to predominantly hold liberal beliefs. Ultimately I think we all find some sort of substitute for religion/religious thinking. The naive optimism of singularity niggers certainly isn't the worst expression of this that I can think of.

>>18687548
95 IQ poster

>>18687540
>>18687552
>>18687593
130 IQ poster

>>18687606
This

>>18687506

Think about all the sci-fi books / movies made in the 60s/70s that take place around now and assume by now we'd all be flying around in space and shit. Think blade runner, the book was written in the 60s and takes place in 2019, or 2001 a space odyssey. The reality turned out that people live today almost exactly as they did 60 years ago with slightly better entertainment and communicate technology. We can't even go to to the moon anymore let alone half the shit they thought we'd have by now.

Today people are envisioning AI running the world for us, or quantum computing, or longevity breakthroughs, but the future in 60s is unlikely to be much different than today. Technology moves much slower than we think. I mean, if you work a job in research or product development you come to realize just how fucking long it takes to do anything.

>>18687021
Lol delusional people like you make laugh especially when none of you ever post proof of going all in. If you truly believed that dumb annoying meme of "stocks only go up" you'd be all in cause "hey no way it be cheaper the next day right guys? Hahaha stocks only go up."

>>18687309

>>18686923
she got me with that milkies

>>18687621
When the market skyrockets over the next couple decades instead of thinking "hey, maybe I'm a fucking idiot who was wrong." you'll just go "OMG the FED is pumping the market, WWAAAAAHH!!!! THEY CHEATED!!!"

>>18686923
me waiting to suck on those titties

>>18687627
We're much more advanced in some areas and behind in other areas compared to predictons, doesn't change the fact that tech is increasing exponentially.

>>18687621
Thanks anon bro.

>>18687837
You guys are just circle jerking each other into missing out on the greatest bullrun humanity has ever seen, but don't say I didn't warn you when you miss out.

>>18687627
i think part of the problem is that people are slaves to the system and don't have the time or energy to spend on being creative and inventing things. in the 60s you could pay off a house in a couple years in a low skill job. you can't do that now. instead the average person has to work 40+ hrs/week to keep their head above water and is overwhelmed with stress and myriad distractions ("entertainment"), hence far less time to read and invent

>>18687880
>tfw your FOMO causes you to make inadvisable financial decisions

Have fun catching knives, Anon. The bottom isn't here yet.

>>18687891
People are also increasingly discouraged to tinker through societal pressure, laws, work contracts, increasingly poor work conditions, increasing expenses, etc.

>>18687621
>especially when the low-hanging fruit has all been plucked.
That hits hard. Only seems easy for big companies now to make new inventions. Especially with the restriction the companies likely lobbied for to have new competitors stifled. You think airplanes would've been invented if all the current laws applied back then!?

Companies spent the last ten years using debt to buy their own stock back. The fed printed trillions and ask it did was stop us from losing the last for years of growth.

What do you expect them to do, go back to using debt for more stock buybacks?

I let mine get back to break even and I took out everything that wasn't a retirement account

>>18687912
>tfw you bought UPRO at $25

>>18687782
Show proof that you went all in. No? Lol you memers love saying this but never post proof.

>>18686972
I'm still 90% sure that technology was given to us by aliens.

>>18687930
Yes, we just invented reusable rockets a few years ago with our current laws, why would we be able to do that but not fixed wing airplanes? Your thoughts lack basic logic.
Regulatory capture is shitty though, luckily Trump is tearing up a lot of Hussein's regulations.
https://freebeacon.com/issues/trump-eliminates-800-obama-regulations/

>>18687930
>companies
>inventions at all
lel. They're just good at PR, they steal and copy the actual inventors (who usually don't get a dime) and then pretend they just saved the world and invented sliced bread again.
Low-hanging fruits is a very true thing, though, but new opportunities arise every so often. Imagine for example that you saw bitcoin and thought it was cool. You should have learned to program and played with an alternative concept based on the tech. You could have been vitalik. The main issue is that it's increasingly more complex and requires increasingly more cutting-edge skills to do these things as time progresses.

>>18687422
can confirm, I do

>>18687943
How could I go all in when I have such a fat link stack? Think I would ever sell? You're a confused sad little bear, waiting to get left in the fart dust cloud behind me.

>>18687937

Well you've either got some balls to hold a leveraged ETF after so many have been raped in this environment, or you are just retarded and don't understand risk to reward. Could have made more money with options then risking it all on <50% return with URPO.

>>18687959
Ya but they are cool aliens and they said they'd hook us up with more.

>>18688035
Sorry you're telling me I suck after making 40% return in a month? Okay anon, thanks for the advice pal.

>>18688035
wsb has rot your mind. a lot of the big losers are options gamblers.

>>18686963
> trading
> taxes
Post balance sheet or GTFO.

>>18687021
>u
Opinion discarded. You type like a retard.

>>18686984
cash drops in value when new money enters circulation.
stocks value go up because where are all that new money going?

unless you gamble correctly that everybody else pull their money out of stocks you stand to lose more to save in cash rather than to save in stocks.

again, where's all the new money going?

>>18688045

Buy you were probably risking much more than 40%. 3x etf would have gotten wrecked if it went down more or had chop.

>>18688078

Holding a 3x bull etf during high IV is a lot more risky than conservative option plays which would have made much more than his 40% return.

>>18688181
>Buy you were probably risking much more than 40%. 3x etf would have gotten wrecked if it went down more or had chop.
And?

>>18686923
Ww3 will pump it.

>>18687271
That’s a giant if you fucking retard. Why do you think nothing has happened all these years?

>>18686972
Fact. People going to look back at this and get misty eyed wishing they'd have put a couple ducats in the system.

>>18688232
>what is risk to reward

that's like winning a roulette bet and acting like you made a good move.

I sold a few spy june put credit spreads late March and made over 500% when I closed last week, it's about risk / reward.

those 3x etfs are retarded to hold overnight when there is high vol and low liquidity, they could lose much more than 3x, while not gaining 3x..

>>18686923
So you're saying it's "a new paradigm & it literally can't go down"? Hmmm. I'm seeing a lot of that, even in the media. Time to short everything.

>>18688320
Ya it's sad, because a lot of smart people are rightfully blackpilled on a lot of our civ, but they just can't wrap their minds around the behemoth that is our technological advancement. These cancers our society is infected with can only slow this advancement, it can not stop it. Wealth will explode but it will not be evenly distributed, you must take it upon yourself to buy a chunk of the market now and hold on to its coattails or eventually you'll be another pleb out of work because of automation eating government rations.

>>18686923
Because I'd rather get actual gains from crypto

>>18688330
I made a bet the sp wouldn't fall 33% in a day after it had already just dropped 30-40% recently. You play around with your options if you want but you trying to act like like my purchase was bad is dumb imo but wateva.

>>18686923

Thank for reminding me anon. I just bought more index funds. Apparently I can still add to my 2019 IRA contributions despite it not being 2019 anymore. Government regulations make no sense.

>>18686923
Based AOC refusing to wear a bra

>>18687880
had a dream that looked like this except I was driving a truck around between the pillars

>>18686923
the Secret Service is the only thing that stops me from going all in on AOC

>>18686963
For now
Trading is bitch in the long term
Best traders get out before they get addicted

>>18686923
milkies

Do u know about network and blockchains well I will like you to know more about Tachyon as it's provider Nodes does not only receive staking rewards from the network but they also collect usage fee from users also

>>18686923
Sweet mother of christ those milkies. Who is this absolute semen demon

>>18686923
The fact that we're entering a 1-2 year bear.

Buy Suterusu instead. 60% APR + parabola = $$$$

>>18689951
AOC

>>18689958
>2 year bear
Why? Unless we need to stay locked up for another year, there's no way we don't bottom out by winter.

>>18689966
>AOC
literally just winning her campaign cause of her milkies

>>18688380
What parts of the market are you holding onto? I do not believe I will become a LINK millionaire by holding ETFs.

>>18690004
I'm like 75% sp500 25% link, or at least I was, I've been buying as much UPRO as I can get my hands on since the bottom hit last month.

>>18690148
So long as you hold and bought in near 30, should be fine. But I still think we'll hit the bottom 2-3 more times this year before it's full steam ahead. I am tracking the VIX to know when to time my entry.

>>18686936
Based

>>18687117
The iq in 1929 was much lower you stupid fucking mong

>>18687325
The gap between internet and mobile technology was 31 years, it has been 30 years since mobile technology on that chart so by it's own logic the next dot is already overdue.

>>18687309
Amen. My thinking is the same way.

>>18687117
We actually kept the economy from overheating. We were going to go into the classic, 'uh commodities are running out cuz we cant find any fast enough and the economy just burns through them like a motherfucker so commodity prices skyrocketed which weighed on companies bottom lines which caused a liquidity shortage and market crash' - scenario but we've postponed this from happening with at least 5 years.
The bull will rage till 2035 and DOW 100k, instead of running out of enough oil in the late 20's.
Oil schock '71
Crash of 89 postponed 5 years
Oil schock '07
Crash of 2020 postponed 5 years
Oil schock of '34
It will be the last oil of the oil schocks tho.

>>18691357
*Crash of 87

>>18686923
>Previous weeks was like 0.5% minus over all
>Stocks are going up every day
Bull coping is hitting peak optimism. Next week with earnings we will be like 3-5% minus EoW and bulls will buy once again another dip.

>>18691357
Remember that the 80's started with an oil glut early on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_oil_glut

>>18691122
2009 BTC

Are Latina girls a good investment?

>>18686923
I think I love her

>>18686923
>what stops you from going all in on S&P500 knowing that literally nothing except maybe World War III can stop it?
because the stock market is ignoring everything happening and does its own thing. It could crash next week on its own regard because the powers that be demand it.

I'm probably better off betting on CS:GO games.

>>18687782
>Brrrrrr
Uh ...I think they did cheat

>>18687021
>fix it
So you are saying the market "works correctly" when s&p500 looks Like a linear graph? Thats not how it works. Otherwise we would all be all in all the time. The Stock Market is mit a Money printing machine. At least not for the general poulation.

>>18687271
>Africans
>get their shit together
I wouldn't bet on it