/biz/ - Business & Finance

its not going to happen sorry.

>>18676181
This is why it will happen

>>18676173
you missed the bottom again OP. you've been playing catch up ever since 08 now you;re going to have to play catch up again. we just entered the next 8year bullrun

The problem is, OP, that you probably aren't seeing all the posts. If you are just viewing [biz] through the /biz/ board, you don't see the green posts, the posts with letters in their ids, or anything numberless. Together, those make up about 40-70 percent of [biz], depending on the day. So conversation will appear disjointed and spastic, because you won't be getting the full picture.


I actually just flipped over to the /biz/ interface to make this post, and it's pretty funny how unintelligible [biz] is like this.

>>18676173
If you have to ask, you will never know.

Regarding the 1929 Crash - more money was lost by speculators trying to predict the bottom of the crash, than in the crash itself. Load up the Dow Jones Monthly on Trading View and you will see it clearly for yourself.

>>18676389
How do you lose money by predicting the bottom? You have like 2% FIAT inflation. That is nothing compared to a possible 40% crash in the next months

>>18676306
>we just entered the next 8year bullrun
Then he still kinda made it in time.

>>18676306
Lol, hope you are all in at this "bottom". I on the other hand will wait for the actual bottom and get in at fire sale prices. Enjoy your bags!

>>18676306
Know why I think this isn't over? All the normies are saying "everything is priced in, Fed prints money, stonks go up". Uh huh. New Paradigm eh? I've heard that before.

>>18676173
You alreay missed the dip. People are realising this whole chink virus thing is bullshit.

>>18676173
Not gonna happen. We have already touched the bottom. The main difference between this crisis and 2008 is that this time FED knows what is going on and will print enough money to keep the economy going. Just google what really happened in 2008. Alan Greenspan was the chairman of FED back then and he got blamed for the crash because he "didn't see it coming".

That being said I'm not saying we won't see a recession in the upcoming years. Just not because of this virus. FED knows exactly what is going on and what they have to do in order to keep the clown world running.

>>18676776
Short positions, margin calls.

>>18677310
You know what isn't bullshit?

The fact we froze the global economy and stockpiled oil at prices far below what US oil can operate under which will staunch like 8% of our GDP while we also have to jointly deal with a complex of failures triggered by the freezing. Moreover there are plenty of people that will be reticent to maintain their lifestyles after this, Boomers, who are among the biggest spenders for example.

But I'll say it again, companies are leveraged to the tits, bonds yields went to shit. Companies will stop receiving credit in the long run which means depressed expansion in an already stagnating economy (look at profits from 2012-now, we hit a plateau). PE ratios are insane for a lot of the most major companies, and the market is being run as a popularity contest which simply doesn't work from a realist perspective. This crash has been coming since Sept. last year.

There's other shit to contend with. Like what happens when $2.1t, and another $310bn unfreezes. What happens when megacaps turn earnings that jostle confidence? What happens when WFH becomes the new norm and oil gets obliterated?

>>18677407
The FED fucks up a lot of banking business. They have very small interest rates and compete to give credit to the average Joe. The average Joe cannot afford a house and they will go bankrupt.

>>18676306
With this logic, who cares about 10-20% more gains, if we hit a 8y bull run.

Then i will wait for a clear trend, right now volume is decreasing every day. on Friday we had like 20m volume and the average for Sp500 is like 100m plus.

Seems like very soon the volume is dead and the next leg down will start, same shit happened in March. And people will realize once we reopen, that nothing is going back to normal.

>>18677678
Good chart, shows that nothing is going down in a straight line and stays down. Big insitutions and big boys still need to sell a lot of their portfolio and will lurk in more and more dumb money.

>>18676173
>What are your predictions?
for the stock market?
companies that dont make anything and hire tens of thousands of people who knows why and somehow make a living of of data will go bankrupt soon
companies that make things will still be in business and their stock will continue to grow
banks will go bankrupt because of massive defaults coming up
inflation will start rising slowly by the end of the year, next year will hit double digits and it will be a year maybe two after that before the fed raises interest rates to double digits like paul volcker did.
i think our economy is more in line with the 60s and 70s than it is with the great depression
we will probably see a reversal of globalisation and a return of industrialization to the west and in a twist of irony China will begin suffering from deindustrialization that the West has suffered from for the last forty years, there will be major social and political effects from that in east asia who knows what the implications will be.

>>18676306
recessions are way longer, zoomie

>>18676173
I feel we're at the tail end of a 25 year cool down cycle.
Sure the last 12 seem quite bullish having gone from 7k to 30k but in the bigger picture it doesnt all look that much differen from say 1915-1942 or 1959-1982.
I say 70% chance we test the lows of 18.5k again.
40% chance we go deeper to 14k to retest the highs of 2007.
Less than 5% chance we go even deeper than that.
After that it is smooth sailing all the way to round number psychological barrier of 100k.
Probably sometime around 2035.

>>18677741
>we will probably see a reversal of globalisation and a return of industrialization to the west
lmao, sure

>>18677718
this

dumb money always buys the first minor crash.

>>18677835
i think that considering what has happened with the shortage of personal protection equipment and the arrest of shipments of materials while that equipment is in transit in third party countries contributes to this. if you don't see a return of it to the west you will at least see a decentralization of supply chains and manufacturing around the world