/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18668611
just eyeballing it the correlation looks irrelevant

>>18668639
The other two crashes didn't have trillions of dollars pumped in

>>18668611
>denominate whole world in dollars
>print trillions of dollars
>hurr durr this is bearish
Wait for the retest then buy the fucking dip.

>>18668712
so what youre saying is this is different, and therefore looking at the last ones is irrelevant?

Imagine being so retarded you compare 2 financial crisis to a virus shutdown.

>>18668785
>economy is easy and only based on one variable, i am so smart

holy shit, you cant even imagine how complex things might be and what unintented consequences it might have.
hur dur money printer brrrrr stonks go up

>>18668813
Pretty much, it's more of a gauge to see where it will end. We can expect everything to be at about -50% in a little less than a year

>>18668852
This. The virus is the very definition of an exogenous event, nobody outside of zerohedge doom coomers was particularly concerned about the economy. Late-stage business cycle shit was there, but we're late in the business cycle so that's hardly unexpected.

>>18668857

>>18668712
Were you even born in 2008? They pumped that mofo like I pump your mom

>>18668865
thats kind of what my point was, they arent the same, they arent handled the same, its not super useful to try to gauge anything from comparison unless youre looking at fiscal/monetary policy. i guess its fun to look at though

>>18668611
Please keep posting this until day 100
Doomtards need to remember what fucking wastes of human life they are

>>18668946
People’s psychology doesn’t change. That’s why the “anatomy of a bubble” graph is relevant to every bubble.

>>18668611
Digits. If it follows 2008, we should be entering our next leg down shortly.

Thanks op, valuable to keep this in mind regardless of how it ends playing out

>>18668712
>>18668852
>>18669037

The absolute state of BullTards.

-We have an absolutely panicked Administration that doesnt know what its doing
-Foreign powers who smell our government's fear and is bullying our oil industry
-A President who doesn't understand medicine, and puts a muzzle on those who do
-A supporter base that operates like an idiot think-tank that has to decipher his words like religious text translators
-A Corona Death-count that multiplied by a power of 10 in a matter of 24 days
-And a very real possibility of a Great American Collapse where our way of life gets buried next to our old frenemy The USSR.

You can be optimistic, but don't act on your optimism or you'll end up stupid AND poor

>>18668611
Where do you get this!!!

Give me link

>>18668611
Source on this OP?

What do most economists/finance wizards say? Is it going to get worse?

>>18669390
Promise me you will unironically kill yourself if the market is at ATH just in time for orange man's reelection.
Its like you still dont get it

>>18669739
All the Wizards of Wall Street are pretty much saying this is going to be a disaster-and-a-half.
Everyone's been conditioned to believe all media is fake media, though, so no one will believe it till we hit rock bottom.

Pic related to give you an idea of how the modern investor operates.

>>18669836

i found the reddit thread

>>18669895
This is bearish af

>>18669791
If the market is at an ATH when we have 100k++ dead around election time and Trump manages to get elected after he's exhausted every medical miracle idea he comes up with on stage, and we don't end up in a war, and I dont die of corona, I will go on biz and publicly announce that I am the biggest retard of all retards and that Daddy Trump has truly saved the day.

I don't expect anything from you in return, because you'll be hurting enough as is if it doesn't play out like that.

>>18668852
>oil market on edge before virus
>10 years of shit company debt bubble about to explode
>2010 pump effect still in place
>yooooooo it's all because of virus!!!
imagine being financially retarded and investing

>>18668611
THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATES OP!!!

Interstingly, Ned Davis Research's Chart of the Week this week is very similar to your project. I'm not sure what their "event date" is though.

Does anyone see why they started at that date?

>>18668611
This is a whole different ball game. Unemployment is 5X the highest ever and the market rallies +1500. This is a bull market on Viagra and its looking to fuck. Buy calls and thank me in a month.

>>18670589
>Unemployment is 5X the highest ever
Pandemic is very different scenario to '29 depression and '08 financial blow up. Market is not going to react to unemployment numbers until/unless projections indicate a large percentage of those lost jobs will not return before end of year 2020. Unemployment during a systemic economic collapse is a lot more meaningful as there would have been little hope of those lost jobs returning.

Now, you can assess the situation critically for what it is or you can continue to be an everything bubble doomer repeatedly losing money on failed shorts and shitposting about how the market makes no sense.

>>18669390
You blaming the president makes you appear to be retarded.
>>18669791
Just because you’re arguing with a retard doesn’t mean you’re right.

>>18669390
>A President who doesn't understand medicine, and puts a muzzle on those who do
>multiplied by a power of 10
Feels good to be a bull when the bear troupe is infested with mental midget bugmen like you

>>18669970
He will be re-elected. After re-election you should livestream your suicide.

>>18670843
>Its not his fault
>>18670858
>Its not his fault
>>18670863
>Its not his fault

He gutted the entire administration with an 85% turnover rate to guarantee that it was and only is his fault.
and the only thing Trump's shortbus can say in response is to reply with a soiboi picture and call those darn "critical-thinkers" trannies.
Ya'll cant accept that voting for a moron who shares your moron sentiments can destroy a country.

To say you are coping is an understatement lol

>>18671012
>unironic obummer niggers posting on /biz/
Go away Karen

>>18670797
Anon, most projections indicate that a substantial portion of those who are unemployed now will remain unemployed. Real unemployment post economic opening is expected to be within the mid teens. Most analysts and economists are expecting the monetary and fiscal stimulus to be insufficient to repair the long term damage done to sectors like travel, tourism, entertainment, hospitality, services, and their natural growth will take much longer than other areas of the economy, like tech, which are better suited to weather these types of downturns. Banks are hoarding record amounts of cash in preparation for record defaults, and have restricted lending requirements for the same. Companies are cutting guidance for the next quarter or two. Across the board, the people that move the markets are preparing for an huge economic downturn. This has nothing to do with doomers, bears, bulls, or other bullshit memes that get spouted here 24/7. This is what's currently taking place.

>>18671012
even though they are complaining and the idiot is an idiot. he will still get relected its so easy to predict the public that its sad

eggcept now we have infinite brrr and zero reserve banking nikkkahhhggers

>>18668611
>imagine how complex
''things will repeat exactly like in the past''
80 IQ tought

>>18671012
Go back to r*ddit you faggot-kike nigger-lover

What do you guys think will happen during the winter months? Another isolate in place order?

>>18668885

What is scary is that people are blaming the virus for shit that started happening back in september. The fed was printing up to 100 billion A DAY back in december 19. Corona is a terrible red haring. People have no clue how bad things are about to break down.

How delusional are bulls when they look at unemployment and are like, yep, back to ATH by next years. We will be at 20+% unemployment with a yearly deficit approaching 1/3 of GDP. Think about that.

And inflation is not good for stocks. Business can not operate if they cannot afford cost increases or worse, can't get supplies needed to operate.

>>18671069
Fuck off doomfag

>>18672325
>The fed was printing up to 100 billion A DAY back in december 19
who cares
it goes into stocks

>>18672325
wahhhh stop making sense

>>18672325
>We will be at 20+% unemployment with a yearly deficit approaching 1/3 of GDP. Think about that.
Subsides from governament
>>18672325
>And inflation is not good for stocks. Business can not operate if they cannot afford cost increases or worse, can't get supplies needed to operate
can't get supplies needed? Because of inflation? ahaha no sense
Inflation is good for stonks because they go up

>>18668611
coroan 2 the wu-flu boogaloo

>>18668611
We will retest ATH before another leg down.

Also, is WWIII priced in?

>>18672325
don't even bother. when we're down -60% EOY they'll all act like they knew all along

>>18672402
>We will retest ATH before another leg down.
why and when?

>>18672325
When do you think the next dump will occur? I’m afraid to buy back in but have some fomo. Maybe next big dip I will buy in.

>>18671069
I bought index funds about a month ago, and some more a week ago. I have only about 5% gains, due to bad timing, but I'm thinking I probably wanna get out with my meager gains and go to that periodic investing strategy where you just buy in a small amount monthly, or just switch to high yield dividend funds.

>>18672402
I submit that we’re already in WW3 and the powers that be don’t want to tell us

why do some people seem to think good times last forever? it's like they've never, ever read a history book in their lives.

and speaking of history books, who knows where this will take us. some want war with china, some think this will last at least until september if not years... hell, this virus could mutate and we could be royally fucked if it does in a worse way.

>>18672740
We’re already at war with China, or perhaps more to the point China is already at war with us, they’re just waiting until we realize it. Give it some thought.

>>18672757
I mean, I've watched some videos that talk about china overtaking the world and shit. they are true, probably, but that doesn't really mean they are at war with the US... most likely, they are just copying whatever the US, as other empires, did in the past, and don't really give a shit about the US or anyone else.

look at how the world reacted to someone having a coof
if you still think logic and reason applies in this world you need to kys

>>18672778
No they are in fact currently engaged in full spectrum warfare in the modern theatre of war, which amazingly involves very little actual fighting at this point but is instead mostly economic (and perhaps biological). I’ll see if I can find the link to them fairly openly talking about this a few years ago.

>>18670434
Start of bear market?

>>18672393
you might be legitimately retarded

>>18672778
Sorry, they call it “unrestricted warfare” and it has been the documented policy of the Chinese government since at least 2002. We are literally that stupid in the west that we’ve chosen to ignore it.

https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/unresw2.htm

>>18672798
kidney failure, leading to jaundice, perhaps? any back story?

>>18671012
No cope, don't care
Unless he directly pressed the button that released COVID-19 on the planet "ignoring any of the fucking conspiracy theories". The economy was booming. It's fucking Murphy's law bro.
>projecting this hard

>>18672798
Chinese Government don't care about Chinese lives. If it's really a nothingburger, the Chinese Gov would not have quarantined an entire province for 76 days.

>>18672448
it's based on market cycle model, we likely go near or over ATH before another leg down.

>>18672325
ssshhhh don't tell the bulls

The answer is simple, 26 million people are jobless, about half are estimated small business. That leaves at best 13 million Americans who were let go and will have trouble finding a job after the virus is over. Yeah there's going to be a recession.

>>18673015
Explain

>>18672898
>The economy was booming
Fucking yikes

>>18672402
>Also, is WWIII priced in?
Nah these niggas still dont even know.

>>18672593
he do tho

>>18672325
>And inflation is not good for stocks. Business can not operate if they cannot
You’re actually retarded. Deflation and a strong dollar is bad for stocks. GTFO you dumb faggot.

>>18668887
No, they did this pretty delayed compared to now. The US subprime crisis started at around June/July 2007 and the US needed about a year until they pumped in money and changed regulation regarding banks and financial institutions. And it took the EU almost 3 years to implement counter measurements. That is why you see these Market drops. The situation in 2020 is completely different because governments can react quicker than before.

>>18672325
Inflation weakens the dollars. Makes debt easier to pay back. Makes trade better. You’re so fucking dumb that you should be killed for spreading such fucking retarded shit infecting people’s minds. People like you should be exterminated. 90% chance you’re a nigger.

>>18672861
>fas
Based. What’s up my fellow glowie?

>>18672325
Yeah inflation helps equities you have it backwards.

>>18672325
Inflation is good for people holding assets. Prices rising mean higher profit margins.

>>18672871
Jaundice doesn’t do that, hyperbilirubinemia looks different and primarily is caused by liver failure just fyi. That looks like at a glance just extreme hyperpigmentation but is probably a reaction from some kind of research drug the MSS brewed in a bathtub.

Buy TMDX btw.
>t. Medfag

>>18669895
always short WSB

>>18673281
I get what you’re saying but I don’t know that it’s a fair comparison: 2008 was pretty much purely due to financial shenanigans, this is a shock that’s exogenous to the financial system that they’re trying to fix with financial shenanigans. I just feel like we haven’t nearly seen the worst of this yet.

>>18673400
>>18673281
My issue is the time frame even the 2018 correction took 3 months to bottom, things can't be over in just a month

>>18673311
I just picked whatever had the translation I remember; I can’t vouch for the site or the translation, I’m mostly going what I’ve seen and experienced myself around lots of Chinese people. The point is that the Chinese will stop at absolutely nothing to serve their interests and have been engaged in economic war with the west for as long as we’ve been doing business with them.

>>18673430
Everyone is doing the same thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Stick_ideology

>>18673522
Releasing a bioweapon, even if accidentally, then using tactics to profit from it economically by purposefully misleading the rest of the world seems to be a first in modern times.

>>18668852
You are delusional, desu.

Rising prices means less people buying goods and also increased price to produce goods.

Sure your stonk might double in price if the money supply triples but your purchasing power goes down.

But I hope the ponzi scheme that is the modern economy continues for a while longer so I can keep buying silver and bitcoin.

>>18673559
There's no evidence that it's a bioweapon. Studying the virus doesn't mean you're making a bioweapon. Speaking of cover ups, US does the same thing.

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/syngenta-harassed-scientist-who-exposed-risks-its-herbicide-atrazine
https://www.democracynow.org/2009/8/25/epa_fails_to_inform_public_about

>>18671012
I was actually agreeing with you until you said 'y'all' then you lost all credibility.

>>18673619
Even if it was just a run of the mill transmission from people eating bats or whatever, they misled the rest of the world and enabled it to spread without sounding the alarm to take everyone else down with them. What you present pales in comparison.

>>18669970
You know he will win the election because there are simply no other options, right?

>>18673730
There were people raising alarms, but the gov't silence them. I disagree with you extrapolating the government's actions to whole population. Going by your logic, everyone is fucking evil.

>>18668611
based crisis chart poster

>>18668857
>stonks
>brrrrr
Reddit

>>18673844
Unfortunately the Chinese populace has been thoroughly and effectively brainwashed by the government there (inb4 everyone is brainwashed or indoctrinated by their upbringing, the Chinese government has absolutely mastered this by maintaining complete control over the media their populace is allowed to access). The vast majority of Chinese I’ve spoken to, albeit all of them living outside China, have typically expressed complete and unwavering support for the government of China, which is demonstrably ruthless and quite possibly “evil,” if you like. I can only imagine they enjoy the same sort of unwavering support at home. You seem to be the one suggesting that everyone is evil through your equivocations and “everyone does the same thing” type of arguments.

>>18673939
ironically the chinese know more about the west than the west knows about the chinese. the chinese are not as brainwashed as you think they are lol. most americans are more brainwashed and less critical thinkers than most chinese ive met. you clearly have an axe to grind

>>18674013
I do, I’ll admit it, I’ve seen my home town turned into a Chinese colony, but I’ve gotten to know Chinese culture pretty well as a result. I stand by my previous arguments: China is in an undeclared war with the west, and they’re winning largely because of the ignorance you describe.

>>18673015
>ignoring the treasury yield 200bps lower

kek bears are so cute

>>18674103
>implying that’s a bullish thing
The fed is pretty much at the limit of what they can do short of outright purchasing equities, which they’re already sort of doing. The market is not the economy.

>>18672325
this, holy shit, the amount of newfags after the crash is staggering
we were talking about a possible crash the moment those insane repo operations started happening back in september

>>18674157
tweak the discount rate 200bps lower in any DCF and tell me how much it cranks the stock price

>>18673736
>You know he will win the election because there are simply no other options, right?
Lmao how is it possible that the "great" USA has NO OTHER OPTIONS besides electing a president with an IQ lower than his age.

>>18674198
I hear you dude, they’ll juice the market as much as they can and there’s money to be made so I’m not complaining, I just don’t see how this possibly ends without real blood on the streets.

>>18674074
>China is in an undeclared war with the west, and they’re winning largely because of the ignorance you describe.
Our Intelligence Communities are well aware of this. Im sure we are countering and have been for two decades. I wonder if this will evolve into an outright conflict.

>>18674074
and the US doesnt do sneaky shit like color revolutions and other forms of disruption? youre really going to claim that the US of all countries is a perfect angel and china alone is the devil? LOL. im willing to accept the possibility that china may have a policy of unrestricted warfare against the US because im nonbiased, but its the height of absurdity to act like the US doesnt play just as dirty. the only difference is that americans truly are too brainwashed to believe their government would do so many shitty things around the world

>>18674230
*the only difference is that americans truly are too brainwashed to believe their government wouldnt do so many shitty things around the world

>>18674229
I’m in Canada and our institutions are completely compromised. Someone tried to raise a flag in our rinky-dink intelligence agency like ten years ago and got fired for his troubles. The people in the know are also on the take.

>>18674230
I have no illusions about realpolitik and the bullshit everybody pulls, but based on everything I know I’d much rather be under the thumb of a US led hegemony than a Chinese led one.

>>18668611
Never stop doing these threads, they're amazing.

>>18674230
youre naive if you truly think the US isnt lowkey fucking with china which theyve majorly stepped up in the past decade:

1950 Korean war,
1959 Tibet,
1962 Indo./sino war,
1965 INdon genocide,
1989 TAM,
1998 Indon pogrom,
1999 BOmbing of Chinese embassy in ex Yugo,
2001 Hainan spy plane, Chinese pilot died.
2003 SARS1,
2008 Tibet,
2009 Xinjiang,
2013 Bird flu H7N9, Asia pivot
2014 Xinjiang, HK, Mh370, bubonic plague, Ebola, Dengue,
2018 bird flu, H7N9
2019 HK, Xinjiang, swine flu, army worms,
2020 SARS2, H5N1, locusts.

>>18672393
>can't get supplies needed? Because of inflation? ahaha no sense
inflation means money chasing supplies. Not implies, but means.

>>18674259
you obviously do have illusions about realpolitik because just earlier you were literally claiming that the chinese government is truly evil LOL while simultaneously trying to imply that the US is a helpless angel who is being preemptively attacked by big bad china. youre clearly singing a different tune now

>>18674229
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/news/national/china-set-up-crime-web-in-canada-report-says/article4163320/

Note the date: 2000. Read up on “operation sidewinder” if you want some insight into how seriously western nations considered the threat, and to possibly vomit a little bit at how we’ve been sold out. I imagine things are a little different in the states, but politicians are pretty much universally whores by trade.

>>18672861
They are literally stating that to call out the fact that you are doing it.

>>18674310
I never claimed the US is innocent and I do believe the Chinese government is legitimately evil, although this is the first time I’ve explicitly said it. You’re either being disingenuous or need to work on your reading comprehension pengyou.

>>18674340
Yeah and they’re going to do everything they can to reciprocate. They’re not an ally.

>>18674259
awww the US is so pure, blameless and moral unlike those evil chinese. Oh dont pay attention to iraq or afghanistan, we were just trying to bring them freedom because we're benevolent and moral unlike those awful chinese. Forget about iran too, we just wanna help them out thats why we keep fucking with them. Oh whats this? look its a list of CHINESE bioweapon research facilities:

http://civilizationstrends.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-3-1024x661.png

Oh wait a minute those are our own, but remember we're the good guys! thats why we have countless bioweapon research facilities around the globe, PURELY for DEFENSIVE purposes right? just like all the wars we preemptively wage, thats why we call it the department of DEFENSE wink wink!

>>18673316
but do they help the underlying?

>>18674355
yeah you dumbshit, notice how you dont even try to deny that the US is a massive shit starter at this point lmao

>>18674366
Ok zhang

>>18674366
And you accuse me of having an axe to grind? Can you show us where the bad American touched you?

>>18674341
actually its you that needs to work on your reading comprehension. I never said you claimed the US was innocent, I said you were "implying" it, which can be pretty clearly inferred from what you were writing. big difference buddy

>>18674392
>>18674384

so this is what happens when your shitty one sided arguments can no longer stand, you just insult or try to deflect lmao

>>18674412
May you and those you love be blessed with as many bats as you might chose to consume friend.

>>18674366
Holy fuck, id rather live in America than live in a shithole country like China where ONLINE GAMING is banned. And the laws are designed to be guilty until proven innocent, man what a great country

>>18669836
so traders screwed up?

>>18673590
only thing you discord trannies get is a bullet in the head

>>18670044
>muh debt bubble
>low oil isnt good for majority of business
Youre actually stupid arent you?

>>18674211
I do not claim to understand it, I am europoor. It just looks to me that nobody in USA wants this job, as it looks like whoever's in lead will have to deal with hard economy crash and possible serial social crisis.

>>18668611
Bump

>>18668611
Comparing cycles: Day 8027.

>>18668785
> complaining about denominating thigs in dullars
> wtf muh assets are all time high

lost on irony are you?