/biz/ - Business & Finance

wait a month

>>18464989
it'll go to 0 for a bit. technically negative, but the charts aren't designed to go that way.

>>18465006
DO I BUY MORE???

>>18464989
Now is arguably the best time to buy oil stocks in history. Your oil shares should consist of mid and large caps with low debt and strong balance sheets aka cash to burn to get through a crisis. What you want to buy and HOLD is MRO if less than 4.3, HAL if less than 8, SLB if less than 16, XOM if less than 40. And maybe some conoco. Again, plan to HOLD these for the long term and you will not lose.

>buying commodities futures for purely financial reasons

You deserve it.

>>18465026
IS THIS THE BIG BRAIN MOVE?

>>18465026
Some of us are old enough to remember the oil price doldrums of the 1990s. Lasted a long time if I remember correctly.

BUY CHEVRON AND ONLY CHEVRON
>and maybe some BP

>>18465062
not really maybe 2.5 years before it shot up. again, this is a long game, and this is not 1990's.
>>18465043
Yessir. Take this prescription and swallow it with a glass of my cum

>>18465098
fuck chevron, its still near all time highs. Only buy stocks that are on sale

>>18465124
Chevron is 35% off its all time highs and is in the best position to survive this shit show. Have fun watching your “on sale” stocks go to zero

>>18465204
Wont happen the companies I invest in have the strongest balance sheets and have been around for 50 or more years. Chevron is the safest bet, but it is not a good deal right now. if it fell under 70 I would buy. But not now.

>>18465111
No, this is worse than the 90s. We’re literally shooting ourselves in the foot this time.

>>18464989
Im already seeing more cars on the road. Just a matter of time until oil moons

>>18465038
>tfw you shorted it and made 2 grand in a day

>>18465235
yeah thats what all the doomer fags are saying. There is blood in the streets. That is why I KNOW that NOW is the BEST time to buy.

>>18464989
Ok Oil anon, in the long run I guess you were right. I mightve got out of oil a little too early but those stocks are taking a beating right now. So i'll stop talking shit about you.

>>18464989
oil target $6

>>18466040
actually futures show 35/barrel by august. Short term will be ugly

>>18465437
Hey it's not like I didn't learn something out of it either. I just assumed the market would read the situation properly and price in accordingly, I've lived through several bubbles in my lifetime but this is the first I've ever watched up close and personal.
As a side note rumor on the oilsites seems to be that the Russians might not be holding up there end of the OPEC+ deal. Which would explain why they agreed to it all things considered(the information I was missing kek).
Link related:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Sad-Truth-About-The-OPEC-Production-Cut.html
>Russia, in the meantime, is geared up to produce around 11 million bpd anyhow – the baseline figure – so again this effectively means no cut, and even if the baseline figure was lower, Russia would take no notice and produce whatever it wanted, as it has done for every OPEC+ deal with which it has been involved, since the first agreed cut in December 2016.

Basically if the author is correct here then the Russians got everyone else on Earth to agree to production cuts while the Russians effectively cut nothing.

Just be glad that you got your money out with a profit of sorts before things get really bad.

>>18466071
Futures are wildly optimistic rn. We will be fucked for months.

>>18466162
There is a lot at play still that can cause oil stock to pop. im bearish through may, but after that demand will slowly come back

>>18465272
Bear markets typically end when those doomers capitulate and buy. We’ve got a ways to go my young friend.

>>18465026
thoughts on HFC?

>>18466192
Even after the glut ends we still have to burn through the excess storage for a while before prices can really start climbing back up.
But then this is all really a prediction about the virus fren'. You think we can fix the supply demand issue before September rolls around? B/c I think that is optimistic as all hell.

>>18466342
MTDR is looking spicy. Oil and gas exploration company...better potential gains but more risk. trading at 3.33 down from 20 in feb

>>18466367
who cares? All i know is that saudis/russia/mexico are going to jack prices back up as soon as enough shale companies go under.

>>18466406
For us to be saved by August September from the crisis that would have to be all of them, all the US shale companies going bankrupt/ceasing operations. Assuming of course that the estimates that come out later today are not going to be a revision downward of last weeks estimates.(in which case add another 1-2 months even with shale going under)

This also assumes the White house doesn't step in with some kind of tariff or otherwise support for the Shale industry.

>>18464989

Oil is unironically going to 0

>>18466381
MTDR is spooking me desu. Dunno if I should hodl or dump them at first opportunity

>>18465016
I'll trust that prediction, stranger with literally zero knowledge and is just guessing

>>18464989
Saudis spent billions buying oil majors. Oil will be back

>>18464989
Orange man should just put some fucking tarrifs on foreign oil already

>>18467095
How is MTDR balance sheet? Is the company ceo buying back shares at these prices? It already bounced back to 3.33 from 1.79 two weeks ago. This stock is potentially a GOLD mine if it recovers and goes back to 20. Fuck I’m very tempted to go all in with ten grand. Upside you turn ten grand into 50-70,000 or you lose 5k if it tanks. I’m struggling with this

>>18464989
Its not coming back for months dude. Does no one here understand oil? Even with a production cut its still millions per day of oil making it to the market with low demand. Oil wont recover until 2021 at least.

>>18465026
>MRO
I kek'd. Buy EOG instead

>>18467946
Lose $10K if it tanks

>>18466552
Check this out:
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/5878.htm
OPEC's prediction was mid-may, which even with their "cut" seems to line up with your own accelerated rystad model. There might be a week or two of fudge in there (producers like to lie, max oil storage numbers are estimated, etc.).
Shale will probably get a bail out, but imo not until the storage crisis hits- current administration seems very much reactive, not proactive.

loading up on more tankers when the TrumpBux come in, question is when will the rest of the market realize they're ez money and push the price up. I'd expect Q2 earnings at the latest, but probably some weeks before then.

>>18469261
EOG isn’t that great desu. A lot more upside potential with MRO. They are one of the oldest oil companies in the United States

Bump. This is interesting as all hell
How does Venezuela and a potential take over of the country factors into all this?

>>18469331
Which tankers? I can see why the interest is there but don't know a lot about that aspect of the bidness.

>>18465026
Good advice but back company choices. COP is ok, they have a lot of cash but the rest arent that great.
>CVX
>BP
>RDS
All better.

>>18465026
>>18467122
>>18469243
Will oil continue to tank, or should I go all in now and hold?

>>18464989
the people telling you to buy oil on here are literally toothless pick up truck owning Trump voting morons who think because they have to pay 100 bucks to fill up their tank with gas that oil still has some value

>>18469806
It will continue to tank. You want to start slowly getting the super major integrated companies to wait it out.

>>18469690
Tankers don't just move oil from A to B, but also can act as floating storage. Demand is high enough now that TK tweeted about 6x normal rates earlier, with utilization near maximum. The companies are going to have awesome earnings; combined with the low price of some (TNP is like $2.70), they're primed to move up.
How you play it is on you; like TNP I have $5 9/18 calls. 2 weeks ago had awesome entries, but they're still pretty decent now. Don't hold these long term, Sell point is going to be sometime near end of Q2 to early Q3 (I think?)
> Companies
TK, TNK, STNG, TNP, FRO, NAT, etc.

>>18464989