/biz/ - Business & Finance

cont.

You can be sure the rise in the price of ETH since the beginning of the year can be attributed to the ETF announcement on Bitcoin because (as my links show) the price of all major altcoins has increased during the same time period (Jan-March) regardless of all previous trends in value. The fact that Bitcoin broke its ATH is purely the consequence of speculation preceding the ETF agreement, and not any indication of true value. Considering that ETH is also following the same pattern by hovering around its ATH, merely provides further evidence that this is indeed the case. Furthermore, the current ATH of BTC occurred after a very long and steady increase in value over two years, while ETH returned to its ATH very abruptly after a period of steady decline.

>inb4 muh Enterprise Ethereum Alliance
The announcement of the formation of the EEA definitely contributed to the rise in the price of ETH alongside the general pump created by the BTC ETF speculation. However, whose to say the EEA will actually contribute value to ETH in the long term? Many of the big banks and companies (Microsoft, BP, JP Morgan) have their own blockchains, who’s to say that they will eventually utilize ETH in its current form? Think about this long and hard before giving in to the shilling.

For this reason, it would be extremely foolish to aniticipate a further increase in the price of ETH after the ETF announcement. Ignoring pumps in price reveals that ETH really is worth close to $10, and probably not even that. There are many issues that affect the long term volatility of ETH, with the two main reasons being the presence of Hardforks in the blockchain and unconfident developers.

After the DAO exploit hardfork, two version of Ether were created, ETH and ETC. As of writing (03/06/17) the price of ETH is approx. $20, while the price of ETC is $1.42. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/

cont.

Why the disparity? Because Ethereum, as of right now, is shit. The code is buggy and easy to hack into. This is why so many hardforks are needed to fix the code. The fact is, Ethereum is not a finished product. It’s very much in its beta phase.

>inb4 muh bitcoin circa 2013 lunar mission
The reason we wont have a proper BTC lunar mission with ETH is because bitcoin was a finished product. True there were some forks, but there was never a reversal like the one done with ETH after the DOA exploit. All speculators should know that ETH is not finished, and will not be for a long time. It’s great that the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance brought some big players into the collaboration, and hopefully we will se great things from Ethereum in the future. However, who’s to say that there wont be another hardfork? What’s to stop investors’ precious ETH going the way of ETC and losing all value after a hardfork creates a new version of ETH? These are all real concerns that have a historical precedent. You have been warned.

I’m not the only one giving warnings though. ETH’s own developers have their doubts. Quotes from Vlad Zamfir, ETH core developer (https://twitter.com/VladZamfir/status/838006311598030848))
>”Vlad Zamfir @VladZamfir @fttank666 sorry, the ethereum-euphoria coming out of the shitpost news outlets was bothering me :P
>Vlad Zamfir @VladZamfir Ethereum isn't safe or scalable. It is immature experimental tech. Don't rely on it for mission critical apps unless absolutely necessary!

Doesn’t really inspire fucking confidence, does it?

cont.

So where does this leave us? Basically, we can conclude that ETH right now is in the middle of a speculation bubble. It will most likely pop around the time of the announcement regarding the Bitcoin ETF, as will other cryptocurrency bubbles. The technology is highly experimental and subject to drastic and unexpected changes that can leave speculators out of luck (see hardforcks and ETC vs. ETH). To top it all of, an Ethereum core developer pretty much gave everyone advanced warning, telling everyone to chill and wait until the technology is fully mature. Even if Ethereum is successfully developed and all our hopes and dreams come true, there is no guarantee that it will utilize the ETH tokens that are currently being traded. The code is too complicated and ambitious, and the developers hide this fact by filling their PR conferences with buzzwords and gimmicks. Just watch any video of a conference on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean by this.

cont.

My advice would be to get out now while the price is high, and sell your ETH before the bubble pops (you could even buy the dip). Then, if you still like the idea of Eth, and there seems to be promising developments with DAPPS and stabilization of the code, then you should invest in ETH. Right now, it’s just too risky.

That being said, I hope my analysis has been of some help. I was just bothered by the fact that so many newbies of 4chan biz were getting sucked into the ETH shilling and the empty memes, and I wanted to provide some facts. Hopefully some of you can save your investment and learn from this experience like I have. As for me, this was my first time investing in cryptocurrency, and I bought ETH when it was between $11-15. Hopefully the current high of $20 will continue, and I’ll be able to sell all my ETH once its available to me on the 7th.

So, what do you guys think? Am I right on the money, or am I gonna regret selling my ETH?

Be grateful and send me a donation:
ETH:
0xa841E06E275af4C84d229af056a5e6E10302dB00
BTC:
15RK74BjKLWLjJggpnVfojYAAAGaVydeue

I think you are pretty close to the truth and that was a good read ,shame you had to ruin it by begging for coins though.

Figured I was saving people a lot of money, a thought that a little bit of a tip would be reasonable
>cheers mate

nice writing op, you know what I thought about BTC in 2011?

>"ppffff... that shit is a scam, not even the creator is know"


I would be a millionaire now if I would have been more optimistic

>>1841367
you are a charlatan. I'm putting your age in between 18 and 22 years old

you know nothing about software development or how markets work

ethereum has practically all of the developer interest in the blockchain space for a reason. ether is being bought up by the top VCs in the world for a reason (a16z, avc, DFJ)

let's say you gamble correctly and the price goes down in the next few days, it still doesn't change the fact that you're completely clueless

While I shared the sentiment, actual analysis proves otherwise.

Like I wrote earlier, the current behavior of ETH in no way mimics the meteoric rise of BTC back in 2013, there just isn't an analogy to be made. ETH is a pump and dump, it will only break its current ATH if PoS actually comes to fruition, and good luck holding on that ong between any potential hardforks that may occur in the future.

The time to invest in ETH is NOT NOW. For goodness sake, wait until the tech is actually mature, the developers I quoted back me up in this regard. Read what I wrote carefully.

>>1841431
>What’s to stop investors’ precious ETH going the way of ETC and losing all value after a hardfork creates a new version of ETH?
All ETH holders got ETC in addition to their ETH, so they were good no matter what.

>>1841437
Yeah ETHEREUM might have interest, but that wont stop a fucking hardfork turning everyone's ETH into a worthless altcoin. Just LOOK at the current price of ETC, and tell me what's to stop that from happening again in the future? Why don't you actually present an argument instead of throwing vague insults.

ETH is in development. One of the developers literally said that it was being overhyped on message boards (ahem, 4chan?). You guys are trying to compare it to 2013 BTC, when the comparison is completely unjustifiable because the technologies are worlds apart in terms of development and usage, even going back to 2013, which keep in mind, was a time when BTC WAS A FINISHED PRODUCT, not a buggy WIP altcoin.

>>1841438
>ETH in no way mimics the meteoric rise of BTC back in 2013,

I agree


I'm not trying to make an analogy, just saying how I choose to interpret the same facts you gathered

>>1841442
Yeah, hardforking and turning the clock back on the blockchain totally inspires confidence in your product. The historical price of ETH supports this, because it's value continued to drop until pretty much the beginning of this year, when the price MAGICALLY began to rise again. Oh my gosh, maybe it's rising because of the anticipation created by the EEA announcement and the BTC ETF decision, and not because the technology is actually justifying a rise in value?

dumped all eth after reading this. about 50k worth thanks for the great write up saved me a lot of money.

>>1841454
God bless.

>>1841454

>eth is a scam

>asks for an eth donation at the end

>>1841477
really makes you think, doesn't it?

>>1841477
Top kek, buying ETH now, thanks for the heads up OP.

GUYS BTC IS FALLING AS WE SPEEEEEEEEAK

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts

>>1841477
Yeah, because AS OF RIGHT NOW, it's still worth something. Really makes you think? You clearly aren't.

so i bought 7 eth yesterday. you tellin me to drop this shit now or wait before ETF decision is happening?

>>1841524
Your call. It might go up a bit before dropping. I bought in at ~$15, so I already made my money. If you want to wait any longer you risk becoming a bag holder for a while.

>someone beats this ETH meme the fuck out

thanks bud, i have a justice boner

Isn't it pretty much confirmed that mining ETH will cease by the end of the year which almost guarantees a skyrocketing price?

>>1841431
illogical hindsight bias

Agreed. This board has more ETH shills than /pol/ has JIDF agents. Seriously, I wouldn't have believed it but they're so obvious, you can feel the ETH recommendation on its way as youre reading the first line.

>>1841535
buy eth

>>1841529
You're welcome bro :).

i agree eth is retarded. its buggy as fuck and too complicated, the devs can't even give a good explanation of it. not a big eth stakeholder just my opinion

Friendly reminder to sage and ignore eth threads

>>1841437
>you are a charlatan. I'm putting your age in between 18 and 22 years old
>you know nothing about software development or how markets work

Bro, I'm not Vitalik Buterin.

>>1841535
>>1841561
Just buy it once

>>1841367
>https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts
>>1841368
>>1841371
>>1841372
>>1841375

If it does tank hard do you think it would be worth buying at it's low point?

I was just about to purchase $1K worth.

>>1841750
Potentially. I do see myself buying ETH again at some point in the future. Just hold your fire for now. Wait until there's an announcement of some kind, then that will be a better time to buy.

>>1841448
Hard forks are actually beneficial for holders of a cryptocurrency, because now the own twice the original amount: One amount in the main chain, one amount on the breakaway chain. They can then sell the coins on whichever chain they dislike and reinvest in the chain they prefer.

>>1841529

This retard spent over $3000 on LoL and he's offering financial advice.

I'm dropping $1000 on ETH the moment I get my accounts verified.

>>1841524

It doesn't matter either way, it's literally 7 eth just sell it and have a nice night out at Applebees

>>1841855

lol

I've only invested $1300AUD in eth and $200AUD in dashcoin so willing to lose such a small amount.

>>1841874
Fair enough.

I had $5k+ in ETH and it was just getting too hot for me, so I bailed. Waiting for the dip now.

>>1841805
Except the fork-coin isn't worth anything and the price of ETH drops because no one has any confidence in the coin anymore.

>>1841829
reveal yourself

>>1841367
>>1841368
>>1841371
>>1841372
>>1841375

>t. increasingly desperate nocoiner

>>1841934
Nice non-argument.

>>1841940
IF NIGGER FAGGOTING CHINESE MINING TRASH BITCOIN CAN GET 20 GORILLION DOLLARS ACTUAL GOOD IDEA ETH CAN ALSO SUCCEED HOW'S THAT FOR AN ARGUMENT YOU CUNTLING

>>1841926

Why weren't you playing Paragon on day one? It had actual graphics.

>>1841367
I think the long term outlook is good for Bitcoin and Ethereum and some of the other crypto currencies as well. However I do think that if you want to make a profit if you are holding any right now you should sell, because we are going to get a smackdown when this ETF is rejected.

>>1841531
this.

>>1841947

Pretty solid argument to be honest

>t. level headed speculator

>>1842005
DJ Orwell is that legit you

NAYSAYERS GONNA NAY

i read this thread, sold most of my ETH, and a few hours later the price dropped 5%.

thanks op. you told me what i kind of suspected to be true but wasnt sure if i was being emotional or just uneducated about.

>>1842072

TO THE MOON BABY

>>1842081

Fickle bitch don't deserve to be an astronaut. That's okay, I've got the chips, and you brought the dip!

>>1842087

when you're broke i'm sure >>1841458 will let you borrow his kneepads XD

>>1842084
invest that money in either TWM, SPXU or June 17th GM puts and thank me later

give it time see pic - devs are working on eth

>>1842091

I fell asleep looking at those trend lines.

Also, GM? Seriously? Cars are so fifties.

>>1842081
Dude this thread probably caused the ETH crash. Crypto is retarded/awesome.

>>1842106
If the market correct a few thousand points SPXU and TWM will double to triple, if the market crashes they will go up 5 times.

GM moves with the DOW, if theres gridlock in capitol hill and the "Trump Rally Story" changes, like how a story stock changes, then all of the down pressure already on GM with their 60% fucking delinquent loans will put them down 5-10 points. If it went down 10 with properly timed puts you're looking at 10 to 15 times your money.

And if Rand Paul's coalitions "DOA" rating on the republicans Obamacare Lite bill is any sort of sign of things to come, then betting against this market might be the best thing you do in the next few years.

>>1842152

So how much, lifetime, have you roughly made on the stock market? Starting capital?

I have a follow-up question.

Should I wait for BTC and ETH to fall more before buying some or get in on this now?

>>1842170
start buying now. This dip is massively oversold and is going to correct

>I bought ETH at $19 expecting it to get to the moon
>$17 now

hahaha...

thanks /biz/

another smart decision

>>1842174
More BTC or all in on ETH?

>>1842197
80% ETC
10% BTC
10% XMR

>>1842202
>ETC

u wot m8

>>1842178
>he didn't buy in at $13

>>1841367
Ethereum is everything bitcoin is and a whole lot more besides, It's like trying to explain the difference between a Telephone and Smart Phone or Calculator and Computer. They both have the same basic function and one offers significantly more functionality besides.

Bitcoin is lagging so far behind, companies are dropping it like a hot rock, choosing to develop on Ethereum instead. Look at the recent news from Circle and the demand for Ethereum developers as testament to that.

>>1842168
I've done it on and off for a few years. Starting capital is irrelevant because I always started and stopped, put money in and taken it out in full. But i've made around 34k with a collective pot of like 20 probably. I'm lucky tho because I have a family member that does it so I've learned through them.

If the market crashes this year it will be like winning the lottery as far as how i'm positioning myself. Really hoping this year i can actually make substantial money trading.

>>1842285

bumping, will reply later

>>1841442
I didn't. I had my eth loaned out at Poloniex and it turns out the people loaning got to keep the etc. Fucking bullshit. No warning. Shorting eth was the easiest decision in the world if you knew that was the policy.

>ETH is at $17.50

Kek having fun holding those $20 bags? Pull a '29 ETHfags.

>>1841438
>wait until the tech is actually mature
In other words, wait until the price is higher

Give the mETH heads some credit - most know there's real potential to lose everything. But if it does take off, they're expecting 10x, 100x gains. If you 'wait until the tech is mature' you're likely to get disappointing returns.

If you want to make 10%, stick it in an ETF

Speaking of ETFs, what happens if the BTC ETF makes it?

I'm not saying you're wrong. The things you mention (another fork, etc) are all possibilities. But if you wait until all these worries are ironed out it will be too late by then. Everyone knows it's high risk. What you seem not to understand is the high potential reward at this early stage makes it worthwhile.

TL;DR: Buy bitcoin now because ETF may pass (odds were against Trump and against Brexit too)

If it doesn't pass, the SEC will show we are closed than the last time we tried to get the ETF approved.

It is ultimately progress.

So if it doesn't happen, buy the dip (will not last long under $1000)

Didn't I tell you bitcoin and Eth would tank? You should have listened.

>>1843098

if etf is denied, bitcoin drops and possibly gets its dip bought, but alts especially ones at the top of their bubbles drop hard in fiat value, and btc value as people exit crypto altogether into fiat to stop their losses, or if theres any hard dip buying. bearish for bitcoin but especially alts.

if etf is accepted bitcoin will rise and alts will drop against bitcoin but may maintain their fiat value temporarily until bitcoin goes full bubble mode and all alts drop. bullish for bitcoin but also bearish for alts unless all you care about is short term gains again the bitcoin pair.

either way ethereum is in a precarious position. im waiting for 0.01-0.012 to pick up some more.

>>1843098
its incredibly unlikely we'll ever see multi stage bubbles of 10x in any alts without bitcoin also making those gains itself.

altcoins are playing a different game than bitcoin ever did, and the only time you'll ever see those moves is when the alt is so unknown and inaccessible that you will have to mine those coins instead of being able to buy them.

>>1842956
Is this nigga unironically shilling Doge?

Keep it up I'm holding

>>1843215
>if etf is accepted bitcoin will rise and alts will drop against bitcoin


if it gets accepted it will generally boost the trust in ALL altcoins

and only logical bitcoin 2.0 will be etherium for the investors and it might be only for the reason that they don't understand a single sentence the mETH devs are saying, makes it sound sci-fi for them

>>1843524
ethereum isn't bitcoin 2.0, bitcoin 2.0 would be a proof of work, non premined, fair and open unforked chain with multi-layer scalability without mining centralization in chinkland.

ethereum is a massively premined shady launch, with a heavily contentious fork and a group of core developers not afraid to extract as much value from it (and its original fork) as possible with complete disregard for laws or ethics.

ethereum is (barely) 1.0 of "smart contracts". just make sure you watch out for when the true next generation smart contract comes around.

thats not to say it will get a price bump if the etf is affected fundamentals be dammed, but if you re-read what i said it will be a drop against the bitcoin pair.

>>1843548
I get you totally, but all are shit. gotta pick the one that can fool normies into believing it's the future

and you gotta admit mETH is really good at that

what's your opinion about the chink problem? those with the cheapest tech/electricity will always put their subhuman hands into the game

>>1843742
there is no solution, the only way to progress past it being an issue is to make sure provisions are made to prevent takeovers of the network itself, like bitcoin unlimited, bitcoinxt, etc.

if ethereum was in bitcoins position it would be in the same place, even with proof of stake the country with the cheapest electricity and most mining will just end up with the largest stake.

as long as the software and users are resistant to it long term there is no issue, miners are slaves to the economy of the coin they mine, and any deviation form the economy should result in punishment instead of encouragement.

>>1843742
the problem isnt that they mine it

the problem is the ruling party just took over the exchanges as its a threat to their goal of chinacoin.

a government crypto that allows them total real time control over the nations finances

The problem with eth is more than skin deep. The bottom layers of a financial backbone should be simple and great at what they can do (bitcoin).
After btcs success, every needless combination of btc+hypeword has been tried. Btc plus facebook, btc plus file sharing, and eth is just the final, non plus ultra version of this. "Hey lets combine btc with literally everything a pc can do."
Can you imagine your bank adding file sharing capabilities to the backends that run basic transactions? It would literally be insanity. And that is what this is.

>>1841387
This

>>1841367

Absolutely right. ETH bubble is ready to burst at any moment now. As you can see yesterday's low. I've just sold all my ETH at the high of 27.3 (thank God). Been nothing but down ever since. That's enough ETH for me and I'm out

>>1841375
why the fuk are you begging for ETH donations in a post where you are shitting on ETH?

Oh yeah, because you want noobs to sell their coin before the inevitable spike come saturday.

Nice "essay" retard

>>1841855

the bantz

>>1844808
Because it's still worth money, holy fuck you're stupid.

ETHEREUM TO THE MOON
NOBELIEVERS GTFO
NOCOINER STAY MAD