/biz/ - Business & Finance

Reasons behind the bet:

Stimulus checks starting Monday, throughout the week.

500b Fed pump on Monday

Covid-19 fears decreasing (more cars on road, tons of people outside, non-geriatrics just saying fuck it I rather die than be lockdown.)

Potential 2nd stimulus package to be announced. Expected to be in excess of 2 trillion.

Trump pumping positive thoughts and feeling via social media and news conferences.

Last week, SPY made huge gains after weekend, early in week

Inflation being factored by speculators, causing prices to naturally rise. For instance, SPY 300 in 1 month will be less in value compared to Spy 300 this time last year.

Unemployment payments begin adding the $600 extra fed bux starting week of 4 / 13.

Renters not being evicted, loans not being defaulted, due to payments being postponed and/or discounted at worst; and at best, 100% forgiven. (I think all of you are under valuing how accommodating businesses and bill collectors have been during this time.)

Negative news is experiencing diminishing returns on its effect over the populace. We already know elder and sickly folks will die. We're starting to not care. At this point, it will take 75% of an elementary school to get wiped out in order to cause another massive panic.

At any moment, positive news could be released. IE, economy reopening (Texas already discussing this), a treatment with high success rate and no downsides goes into mass production, curve is flattening, warmer temperatures break people out of winter depressing, etc. . .

My prediction for Monday opening:

Markets will likely remain stable at open. Investors, anxious to get back into the game after long 3 day weekend will just want to make sure that the markets aren't tanking before pumping.

In retrospect, I wish I had purchased SPY 4 / 15 287C options and just spent a bit more. However I'm feeling good that I'll be able to turn a profit here.

Thoughts?