/biz/ - Business & Finance

The dump will happen when this is all over.

yeah

>>18266179
>unemployment rate skyrocket
>buy stocks
lmao
the coronachan crisis will last for a couple of years at least
there is a lot of time to bleed

>>18266179
can u exlpain to me pump? it's correlated with stock market going up cause the high vol of buying stocks... then dumping is correlating with the stock market going red because those same people are selling...

do i have this right?

>>18266179
>cascading bankruptcies that C suites are desperately hiding are priced in

Ever heard of a dead cat bounce, my guy?

>>18266179
I won't touch the market with my main stack until the crisis is over and things are back to normal. There is too much bullshit going on right now. I do gamble with options occasionally but thats all it is.

>>18266179
The dump has only just begun. DOW will hit 15k this year

>>18266179
The rock already fell into the sea and the wave hasn't reached us yet.

>>18266216
>couple years
Over by June. People are slowly realizing you're not at risk if you're healthy and under 65

>>18266452
let me guess, and tell the truth

you were one of the people saying it would be over by end of April, and now you've moved the goalpost

>>18266276
Priced in, retard

>>18266307
The dump only just beginning is priced in.

If you don't understand that absolutely everything is priced in in real time now there is no hope for you. Efficient market hypothesis is true in the lightspeed algo era. Dollar milkshake. The USA will emerge from this stronger and more dominant than ever

>>18266307
Yes, it will hit 15k before it bottoms out at 12k.

>>18266483
I knew it was going to last until mid summer because Americans will panic about the stupidest shit and ignore everything the government tells them. Also yes, it's still just a flu

>>18266613
right now, give me your total death estimate of coronavirus by Dec 31st, 2020

if you say anything less than 2 million global, you are confirmed to be uninformed beyond belief

>>18266216
with how inflation will work, and how long this will pan out, I would pick a few stocks that are likely to survive a depression just due to necessity, so when we go back to normal, you aren't completely fucked

>>18266307
>15k whilst they are printing trillions
imagine thinking this

>>18266452
novel virus.
you are at risk just by a roll of the dice and no prior health matters so long as you don't have aids.

the reason old people die isn't because it hits them worse, its that the constant strain having a bad dice roll has on them that they just can't recover from.

the bad news is, once this does overwhelm the hospitals, that's when mortality for it will go through the fucking roof, and considering even if you are in perfect health and in your 20's, if you can't get treatment because you rolled bad, you are going to die.

The current hope is we can space this all out so the hospitals don't get overrun.

>>18266179
All you retards rushing in is the strongest sell indicator imaginable

>>18266613
yes, a flu that has a shit load in common with the spanish flu, what with both being novel viruses, if you need a historical analogy for how bad this will get if not dealt with.

>>18266452
If you've been paying attention. It should be obvious by now that not true. Young people are ending up in hospital with pneumonia. People in their 20s, 30s and 40s have died.

>>18266637
personally, I don't think the world is willing to do whats needed to contain and get rid of it.

and coronavirus death toll isn't the right metric to look at, you want death toll caused by coronavirus overrunning hospital resources. i'm willing to place money around black death level of bodies world wide.

if this is a 1/5-1/10 chance of rolling dice wrong, that's a fuck load of bodies.
if we don't gain immunity once we get it, then we will just constantly be reinfecting ourselves. if we have to roll each time, then we will just re roll till we come up with our number, and the hospitals being overrun will ensure our deaths.

I would love to be wrong, I want to be wrong, but I have been right every step of the way so far.

priced in idiots

>>18266179
Because i'm not retarded

It's just going to violently crab, but it will just bleed downwards over a long period of time. It gets increasingly difficult to price in 6 months from now than this week.

What hasn't happened yet, is mortgages and businesses defaulting. That could cause a second crash but usually that takes time and it depends on monthly payments not being made.

The money printing from the Fed is to help prop up some markets, while easing interest rates so that the real economy could potentially lower their payments. This may or may not help. With a huge cut in job losses and revenue, this can harm the prospects of business survivability, since everyone is still knee deep in debt.

If you're going to invest, the winners in all this are cheap, low leveraged stocks, or businesses that can instantly cut back on spending on a moments notice (through furloughs, turning off equipment, not being in debt, etc)

Also, the COVID-19 death toll means nothing for the markets. What's more important is spending, income, and altered consumer behavior.

>>18267084
Textbook definition of a long term bear market. Upboated

>>18266946
>Willing to place money on a black death nunber of bodies.
>1/3 of all Europeans are going to die.
Solid bet, I'm in.

>>18267084
mortage companys are down hard today some are down more than 20%

>>18267181
well look at it this way, it will buttfuck india, it will buttfuck china, and it will fuck europe and america,

these 3 areas alone have what... 3.5 billion people around, 1/10 is 350million, thats well above black death.

I do think we have a chance at avoiding that if we shut down major areas for nearly 2 years and vaccinate immediately when its able, but that would effectively fuck the world and is a near non starter.

>>18267131
solid advice

>>18267341
This is barely a speedbump for China and India, they've had pendemics on the regular for a couple thousand years now.

Currently there are 56k deaths (reported total, in the entire world), how are you extrapolating that number out to 3.5 million? Daily cases have peaked almost everywhere outside of the states.

WTF IS GOING ON !! !! MY LONG CALLS

>>18267457
I am more looking at the end result rather then peak cases. if the hospitals get fucked, that's every new patient that rolled dice wrong, along with a more treatable problem also becoming far more deadly than it has any right to be.

also, for china and india, the main difference is the fact this is novel. sars was the last novel one china had, but that wasn't airborne and infectious while asymptomatic for 2 weeks+

>>18267457
>Daily cases have peaked
because everybody everywhere is being put on lockdown, some countries dont give out the real numbers. This disease would grow exponentially if everybody is just out and about. I think many more will die

>>18267758
Swing dumping for the weekend.

>>18266637
30k in the US by end of May. Won't go much higher than that thanks to widespread use of Hydroxychloroquine in the early stages.

>>18268128
Yes, exactly. If every country is on lockdown (which they all are in some form), where is this exponential jump going to be coming from?

>>18268278
When we come out of lockdown? You dont think we're going to have this thing eradicated by the end of lockdown do you? Best case scenario it becomes more of a regional outbreak problem rather than a national one.

>>18266206
OMFG IT'S CRASHING SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL

>>18268437
The hypothetical issue was hospitals being overwhelmed by a sudden crush of cases, which is what the lockdowns are preventing. There will certainly be more gooking cough cases cropping up after that, but its would require an additional order of magnitude increase in severity to reach these "millions of bodies" claims.

>>18266179
lol none of that shit is pumping. Economy is dying... recession coming near. Escape in bitcoin and buy ZANO and OGN with it.

>>18266179
This didn't age well

>>18267457

>>18270904
China really does make everything. Good for them!

>>18267457
we don't know for sure whether or not it's peaked anywhere yet, may be italy.
we don't know how to handle a potential reopening of society without the virus blooming up again either.
the third world is still remaining in the third world and hasn't started walking towards europe either.
it has only just begun :-(

>>18266835
>we can space this all out so the hospitals don't get overrun

My girlfriend is a respiratory therapist and this is the goal. She says the virus would be like a culling of nearly all patients with moderate to serious health implications if left to run its course. Try telling everyone that has a relative being treated in a hospital that their relative will almost certainly die.

She says everyone is going to get this and you may have already had it and as far as healthy and younger people dying from it, like you said it’s a roll of the dice. Like any seasonal flu or cold I might get a sore throat and stuffy nose but your sinuses fill to the brim and you drown in snot. It’s an individual thing.

Oh, she also says smoking and vaping is definitely a major risk factor even if you’ve quit. Most people already know that the heat of smoking and vaping burns off the cilia hairs that help your throat and lungs clear shit out, and once burned off not all of them grow back. The amount of cilia you have is a determinant of how badly this virus effects your lungs. Hence old people and smokers dying.

>>18266179
Jeez Mossad really is stationed on /biz/ no wonder you faggots seethed so hard at the original BSV posting. Now you faggots are seething over SQQQ holders. Absolutely EVIL manipulators of human consciousness

>>18270904
The "Spanish" flu came from Kansas.

If stocks go up 200% but everything costs 200% more have I actually acquired any money? No.

Investing in stocks because muh line go up will make you money but is meaningless if for every dollar you make the everything costs a dollar more. You won't acquire purchasing power in this kike ponzi scheme. Buy gold.

This depression will last 2-4 years and stocks will drop another 50% at least regardless of inflation. You will be a massive fucking bagholder if you buy now and probably will have to wait like 10 years to break even. Dot com bubble took 7 years to get back, great depression took decades. And the economic numbers coming out now are worse than the great depression.

Additionally this crash isn't just corona. Various financial markets started collapsing last year. Remember the fed started reducing rates in 2018. GDP growth in 2019 was complete shit, lower than inflation. Shit was headed down hill and corona just popped the bubble and got us there faster.

>>18275088
GDP growth is already adjusted for inflation you brainlet

>>18266853
This
People thinking it’s priced in and the virus will be gone by June (even though it wont) is priced in

>>18266179
>sniffles that kills basketball americans, old people and fat people

>>18266179
the stock market is in full delusion mode right now

>>18275159

Not REAL inflation and price increases which is closer to 10%. They use CPI which is literally rigged to be lower to reduce payment growths which are based on CPI. Every year they change the formula so it works out to be <2%.

>>18273612
It doesn't burn off, they get paralyzed by overstimulation from nicotine.

>>18266179
Everyone that is using this line of thought right now will get the most brutal bloody unforgiving 1 million angry nigger ass raping in the coming weeks. You will lose everything so fast you won't have time to exit, and stop losses will be ignored it will drop so fast. Circuit breakers will only be there for the markets to pause long enough for you to wish you would have sold, but by the end of all this you will likely consider swallowing the barrel of a shotgun just to ease the pain. Good luck!

>>18266179
What's spy for Dow?

>>18266201

>>18266179

>>18276383
...

>>18266179
The market is not efficient, not even in principle. Nothing is ever priced in. Shut the literal fuck up