/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18250650
The next ten years? Infinite. The dollar will collapse this decade.

>>18250693
One for hyperinflation then?

>>18250767
Two? These aren't very specific estimates. Even an average of 10% would be crazy for the US.

>>18250650
The Chinese says Great Leap Forward

>>18250850

People ask this question all the time. Some sectors are experiencing deflation, some are experiencing inflation. Each will be affected by differing amounts and not necessarily at the same time.

>>18250978
I think that shitskin youth got his eye knocked out by a fish. :D

>>18250850
I am aware... I made it. Never caught on though.

>>18250913
That is an unusual take on Maoism. Is it only allowed to credit him for the good things?

>>18250978
What is the CPI?

>>18250650
>inflation
At the end of the day it's just a meme word. Prices in US will rise but US dollar will remain bullish against other currencies worldwide. Is this an inflation or a deflation? Does it matter

>>18251670
Matters to bond markets and all the crazy low fixed rate loans in real estate lately.

>>18250650
I guess I didn't state my opinion. When the government can and does print more and more money, deflation is impossible. But maybe I am dumb? Also, how much the FED overshot info inflation is important.

>>18251227
>CPI
>relevant
consumer price index which doesn't include edu, housing, nor medical. Sub steak for hamburger for spam amid rapid shrinkflation. We will experience brief deflation for 6 mo - 2 years in real estate/edu/auto/stocks + anything financed. Once money velocity picks up it is off to the races and we will be Argentina/Venezuela/Weimar/Zimbabwe
tick tock

>>18251227
>>18251815
If the 2nd part of you question were as easy as CPI, answer would be in 10 year TIPS which are getting BOGGED right now. 2Trillion stimulus to support 250Trillion public and private debt around the world. Uncertainty reigns.
>When the government can and does print more and more money, deflation is impossible.
Your opinion is dog shit, Powell. Events move faster than governments. The Fed gives a perception of maintaining control for the babby sensitive markets. Rarely it does more than piss in the wind.

>>18250650
inflation obviously

>>18250650
Periods of heavy deflation are often followed by extreme inflationary periods. Read some history.

>>18251953
Really? The price of education will go down? That would surprise me. Actually autos too, some prices seem quite sticky. But hyperinflation would surprise me too. Why do you think it will happen?

>>18252375
So the TIPS fell off a cliff same as stocks. Doesn't mean either is a correct value. But let's say it is, then neither side is right and 10 years is just a long slide of nothing.75%?

Doesn't seem like either kind of doom.

>>18250650
let's see... are you having dollars taken from you or are you getting more dollars worth less?

>>18250650
It will go up short term (2-5 years), then down long term (5-10 years).

>>18252447
cheap money (debt) and foreign money has caused those prices to go up. What is the price of a starter home, Ford F150, or U of M education if you can't get a loan or if you need 50% down?

>>18250650
Hyperinflation after a currency speculation attack by way of Cayman and Panama monies escaping to a global currency after the fed has bought all assets.

>>18252735
Ah so you think there was a bunch of dumb money out there that will dry up and take the financial sector with them making loans disappear, and thus prices drop? But student loans are financed by uncle Sam, they aren't leaving.

>>18252865
40% unemployment, stricter lending requirements, flood of supply on the market from repos and foreclosure

>>18253412
The 2008 crash had a slow rollout of foreclosures because the banks thought it would make everything worse. So I suspect that will happen again? But what does that mean? If I wanted a house soon, buy now at high prices because it is still possible, or wait for low prices but maybe not be able to get a loan?

>>18253626
buy with cash in 1-2 years

2%

>>18253929
Unless the market drops by 95%, I will not have enough cash. But I do have enough for a 0% VA loan if I'm quick. I'm thinking it's better to have a house that might be in foreclosure for a decade and risk the credit hit? Better than renting, if I lose my job in either scenario.

>>18253939
Thank you for your estimate.

>>18250650
Inflation comes before deflation. Deflation comes before hyperinflation.

>>18250650
2% managed by goal seeking an excel sheet

>>18254571
So where are we now?

>>18255158
That much stability sounds good though.

-spending is at record lows
-consumer confidence is at record lows
-asset wealthy retirees without pensions increasing
etc. etc. etc. projection is demand will be decreasing while supply booms for all asset classes, this is something that was well known and predicted for ~2025, its the generational cycle

But thats not the problem, now thanks to this corona bullshit and governments voluntarily shutting down the economy (a self imposed crisis lol good job retards) just so that 80 year olds with pulmonary disease and peopl with aids dont die from a cold. With massive increasing bad corporate debts and increasing unemployment, the only way to get back to 'normal' is to print, and this time its not just the banks that get all the greens, the private sector and regular workers will get some moola except everyone is either scared shitless thanks to fake news or so traumatised from loosing their job or salary cuts that all that green is NOT going back into the economy its going straight into savings with minimal spending.

As the idiots print M2 supply is going to be INCREASING SILENTLY because money VELOCITY has dropped and it will NOT go up for a while, people just aren't going to be spending after this scare and the banks will keep on printing to try to stimulate the economy but it won't fucking work. The deflation, that was naturally coming due to what I mentioned in the first section, will happen but M2 will also increase in the background and without any sign of it in the economy due to low velocity. Once things do go back to 'normal' and people start spending again like before, money velocity will increase except now the silent M2 surplus will hit the market, everyone will be rich at first but price adjustment will quickly follow and inflation will hit, there will be a price adjustment not seen since the fucking Weimar republic when that new money hits and it will be faster than anyone can imagine

And the cherry on top is that intrest rates are at 0
nothings safe

>>18255749
An interesting analysis. But is the M2 really increasing that much? 2 trillion a lot, but also not that much?
Also this suggest to me, take out all the loans and buy whatever assets seem undervalued?

>>18255749
>nothings safe
gold is safe.....

>>18256280
you're pretty dense

>>18256356
Like physical gold you are storing at your house? Because I have slight concerns even about that.

>>18256280
>not that much
thats 10% of anual GDP and its only the start. 2008 had several phases of QE not just one. If theyre already starting off with 10%, I can't imagine what nightmares they have planned.

banks aren't going to be lending, theyre pilling on bad debts they don't want any more. and anything thats undervalued now, will just be even more undervalued during the deflation.

>>18256356
yes but no. Gold will drop just like everything, its not immune from deflation or isolated from other markets, you just won't lose as much value compared to everything else, ideally you would buy into gold during the deflation

>>18256582
i may or may not have gold at several different locations.

>>18256591
>financial assets deflate
>USD loses reserve currency status as printer goes brrrrr
>people wonder what the fuck is going on
>no longer give a fuck about growing their wealth merely preserving it is good enough
>gold is safe
>people start buying gold even during a deflationary spiral
>price actually goes up

>>18256591
I have several kinds of lines of credit still open. A person might know how that could disappear in all kinds of ways, if they were expecting personal or nationwide bankruptcy anyway. But I'm thinking even better is if you just have to hold on until the inflation part.

>>18256507
This may be true.

>>18256650
I'd spend some of it on ammo, friend.

>>18255749
whats your timeline for the deflationary period and when will hyperinflation beginning?

hyperinflation is 50% per month for a year. At least 50%. We will see 50% of inflation per month in a year or 2.

>>18257379
This, please

>>18258790
If you really believe this you should by every $2 million 1br condo in San Francisco.