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File: 28 KB, 350x335, death_bitc.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18175663 No.18175663 [Reply] [Original]

After yesterday, it is now officially more likely than not, according to technical analysis, that BTC will likely fizzle out and practically die in the very long term (next decade):

Before you get your panties in a twist hearing this, here me out. Here are my arguments. If you want to rebut these arguments, feel free to respond.

1. We've had a death cross on the 2D chart. This has always resulted in at minimum a 50% move down in BTC history. The last time this occurred was in the 6ks in 2018 and we ended up going to 3k.

2. If 1. occurs, we will be back at 3k at the minimum. This is an 85% correction from the ATH

3. This is most crucial. No asset in history has ever survived (and by survive I mean break ATH) long term where it experiences an a) 85+% correction and b) at the same level.
To expand on 3.), what do I mean by this? What I mean is that if we go to 3K, it will be the second time we experience a total of an 85% correction from the ATH back down to the same level. We have had corrections like this in other assets that have survived. For example, Amazon corrected to more than 80+% during the dot com crash. However, it did not crash back to the same level again. And this is a company that dominates online marketplaces with actual employees.

In fact, you will find no example of any asset in history to have ever had an 80+% correction back to the same level relative to ATH (i.e. 3K is 85% down from 20K). If you can find a single chart, let me know. You won't. Every time this happened, the asset basically fizzled out. (i.e. series of lower highs over and over long term before trading volume basically collapses).

Will it happen quickly? No. It could take a decade for all we know. But it would be correct to say that it is now more likely for this to happen than for it not to happen.

>> No.18175707

>>18175663
Ur gay

>> No.18175722

No, you sell fiat.

>> No.18175735

I mean, no shit. Why would bitcoin recover to ATH? It doesn't do anything and has no development.

>> No.18175756

>>18175735
We don't have to explain you shit. Do your research and act accordingly.

>> No.18175759
File: 189 KB, 791x1024, bitcoin-obituaries.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18175759

say the words

>> No.18175768

>>18175756
Just repeat one of your buzzwords. nah I'll do it for you

Digital Gold
store of value
Hedge

>> No.18175782

see? You know about it.

>> No.18175823

Can I go buy toilet paper with this currency'?

>NO

In the trash it goes

>> No.18175854

>>18175663
What is bitcoin used for and who uses it? In 2017 I thought BTC and crypto was the currency of the future. Now I realize crypto is a get rich quick scam for the smartest elites who started them.

>> No.18175874

>>18175707
fpbp

>> No.18175896

>>18175663
We'll see what happens a few months after the halving. Right now things look like shit because the everything bubble is finally popping, but at the point when the bottom will be reached in most markets Bitcoin will have a slower inflation rate than USD, and stacking BTC is much more convenient than stacking rocks.

>> No.18175910

>>18175735
>bitcoin doesn't do anything
Bitcoin is doing what it has done since it was created and continues to do so
>no development
Slow pace of development is not equal to no development. Use google to find out what's next for bitcoin.

Fucking low iq board full of retards

>> No.18175917

The more effort someone puts into a post saying "don't buy this", the more you know it's time to buy it.

>> No.18175927

>>18175896
>We'll see what happens a few months after the halving

Give me a table, kind anon. How many months are we talking here?

>> No.18175930

>>18175910
Cringe. Bitcoin is a failure and everyone knows it except coping moonboys

>> No.18175938

>>18175910
>Fucking low iq board full of retards
sometimes i can't tell if this is the case of if the entire board is just in a irreversible state of shitposting.... i guess that makes me a retard too

>> No.18175942

>>18175823
My shop is open. 1 bitcoin = 1 tp roll. Worldwide free delivery

>> No.18175947

>>18175759
> "Just because it didn't die before, it means it will never die"
> Sample size: 10 years
Kek

>> No.18175972

>>18175930
And so is any other shitcoin. Seriously, what does any other coin is used for? Not even those betting sites shitcoins are worth anything.

>> No.18175984

>>18175972
Yes. They're all shite.

>> No.18176001

>>18175972
Crypto is a failure and a joke. Get with the times, moonboy. You won't be a millionaire off your $1000 investment.

>> No.18176004

>>18175972
They're used to test the theory that shitcoin can't die. Some succeeded.

>> No.18176015

>>18175927
Everyone always has their own tables that are different, but the one thing that's accepted among almost everyone is that a halving is always followed by a dip as people dump their stacks to buy better mining equipment. The period differs based on when you'd consider a dip to officially be over, but I'd guess about three months. Once the dip ends, a slow rise to the next ATH happens, if this slow rise doesn't take place then OP is right.

My alternative answer for you is that there is no answer. After corona-chan stops pegging us, the people manipulating crypto markets will jump back on their bullshit, at which point TA is next to useless since they can just print more tethers to play Etch-a-sketch with the market charts

>> No.18176026

>>18176015
There's' no better mining equipment to be had this time around; ASICs aren't getting any better.

>> No.18176030

>>18175663
dood did you really spend all that time drawing lines and shit?
ta is a fags game, you know that rite?

>> No.18176034

>>18175823
>it's bitcoin's fault people choose not to use it yet!

>>18175854
Me. I use it. Have used it to store savings in since 2012. I spend it when it goes up, buy extra when it goes down, and DCA the rest of the time.

>>18175930
How has Bitcoin failed? Blocks are still being found, network is still good, transactions are still final. This shit takes a long time to establish itself. Could you imagine what the value of gold was like in the initial years that its scarcity was *just* beginning to be understood by some of the humans? That's where we are at now, but the process will unfold much more quickly thanks to the internet.

>>18175938
There are intelligent people who visit this god forsaken site occasionally.

>>18175917
I was around before the first halving, vividly remember the second one, can confirm. Less than 45 days until the halving, a dip *may* occur afterwards, but only a fool would believe the price would be lower now than in 600 days.

>> No.18176058

All permabears I hope you have skin in the game and hold 0 btc.

>> No.18176069
File: 185 KB, 1846x535, bitcoin_investors.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176069

>>18176034
>Could you imagine what the value of gold was like in the initial years that its scarcity was *just* beginning to be understood by some of the humans?

Bitcoin isn't gold you delusional moonboy. Man, You people are on another level of delusion. It's honestly insane.

>> No.18176092

When Bitcoin gets more scarce than gold what then?

>> No.18176095

Imagine not owning BTC but having the concept of BTC live in your mind like a virus that you constantly have to post to a bunch of strangers to defend your reasoning for not owning any. I think the word is "insecure", but there may be another. "Faggot" is coming to mind, also.

>> No.18176099

>>18176069
>Bitcoin isn't gold you delusional moonboy
Right, it's far more rare and useful. That's the whole point. It's not insane, you don't understand it. Seriously, how long have you known about Bitcoin? How well do you understand Austrian economics?

>> No.18176110

>>18176026
That's my bad, good sir, I remember someone saying in a prior BTC thread that there won't be a dump after the upcoming halving for some reason, but I forgot what that reason was and every thread since then everyone still thinks that there will be a dump, so I assumed I just remembered something incorrectly. Evidently I'm a brainlet whose knowledge of BTC is limited to what I've read on this board, but I've read enough to know that in the next several years it will be very important. Maybe not now when it's shitting itself along with every other asset, but later on.

>> No.18176124

>>18175823
I'll sell you a 24 pack of premium 4 ply made from Californian Redwood for 0.1btc with free international shipping

>> No.18176125

>>18176095
>TlMEi80E
wtf?
Time I ate 80E?

>> No.18176130

>>18176099
> useful

Literally noone uses it for shite except hoping that the price goes higher so they can cash in with their 1k investment.

The other half are bagholders waiting for a higher price to sell

>> No.18176137

>>18175735
You think a quickly changing bitcoin landscape is good for adoption? We need less new development, not more.

>> No.18176144

>>18175930
>bitcoin has functioned exactly as intended since release and continues to do so, with improvements successfully implemented and more planned
>failure
???

Bitcoin's value is too easily manipulated, I can give you that. But nobody will print it like it was toilet paper.

>> No.18176148

clicked on this shitpost because i thought we were going to get some good fundamental discussion but instead we've been subjected to low IQ TA garbage.

>> No.18176156

>>18176130
I use it for savings, I've used it constantly for eight years to do this, ever since I bought it at $10. I used it to move value around when my bank account got frozen for donating money to Wikileaks back in 2012.
Dollars are inflating, stocks are all a 95% buyback scam, gold is controlled by the banks more than Bitcoin plus it is hard to custody it yourself if you have, say, $300,000 worth of it. Real estate is due for a massive correction.

Where are you putting your savings?

>> No.18176157
File: 194 KB, 912x1024, 1584843921742.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176157

>>18175663
>1. We've had a death cross on the 2D chart. This has always resulted in at minimum a 50% move down in BTC history. The last time this occurred was in the 6ks in 2018 and we ended up going to 3k.

BTC never surpassed ath until next halving

>2. If 1. occurs, we will be back at 3k at the minimum. This is an 85% correction from the ATH

All btc corrections after halving were 85% we already did that in december 2018 we are now in the pre bullrun.

>3. This is most crucial. No asset in history has ever survived (and by survive I mean break ATH) long term where it experiences an a) 85+% correction and b) at the same level.

BTC did that after previous halvings bullruns.

Also dormant coins are going to the fucking sky

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-dormant_1y-bitcoin-addresses.html

People are not selling they are more hopefully than ever for btc future.

>> No.18176161

>>18176130
It's a store of value. Wait til all that Chinese money comes out of real estate in the US/Canada that the chinkies are about to offload. Onto the USB stick it goes.

>> No.18176185
File: 285 KB, 900x500, dab.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176185

>>18176161
>>18176156
Ultra woke

>> No.18176192

>>18176157
>All btc corrections after halving were 85% we already did that in december 2018 we are now in the pre bullrun.

You didn't read my post. Those 85% corrections were not back to the same level. Each 85% correction occurred after a new ATH. We haven't had a new ATH and if we go back to 3k, it'll be the second 85% correction from the same ATH.

People are selling, and you will soon see the truth.

>> No.18176201

>>18176156
> I personally use it even though 98% of the people who bought BTC don't ever use it for payments and just wish they can get rich off of it.

Ok

>> No.18176208

>>18176110
There won't be a dump this time precisely because miners don't need to rotate hardware, which means the halvening is gonna be a black swan even though we know when it's coming.

>> No.18176212

>>18176015
Thank you anon, here's a (you) as payment.

>> No.18176223

>>18176201
Collecting and saving is the first step to a commodity becoming money. But you already know this because you've been studying monetary history these past eight years, right?

>> No.18176225

>>18176192
wow an infinite sequence of 85% corrections

>> No.18176234

>>18176223
7 transactions per second

>> No.18176254

>>18176234
On the base layer. I've used lightning for the past three years and have done thousands of transactions per second.
But you know this because you've been using Lightning the past three years like me, right?

>> No.18176261
File: 51 KB, 600x518, 19789999.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176261

>>18176208
>black swan
>even though we know when it's coming

>> No.18176267

>>18175910
>Slow pace of development is not equal to no development.

You can look at the github repo yourself. Recent activity is just maintenance work consisting of fixing minor bugs and minor refactoring.

>Use google to find out what's next for bitcoin.

There's no official road map, so nothing is happening at all.

>> No.18176290

>>18176267
>You can look at the github repo yourself. Recent activity is just maintenance work consisting of fixing minor bugs and minor refactoring.
You are ignoring the BIPs, otherwise you'd see the Schnoor signature and taproot proposals and realize they're being worked on before the code is introduced to the repo. You know this because you've been following the github and Bitcoin developer mailing list for the past six years, right?

>> No.18176291
File: 63 KB, 664x873, 1584625140304.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176291

>>18176192
>You didn't read my post. Those 85% corrections were not back to the same level. Each 85% correction occurred after a new ATH. We haven't had a new ATH and if we go back to 3k, it'll be the second 85% correction from the same ATH.

Ok so you are not a retard , yes that's a good observation.
However you are not noticing that bitcoin since march 2019 has been outperforming previous halvings.

For example the top of the first halving bullrun was 1050 usd in 2013 and yet at the 2016 halving btc was not even 600 usd the maximum it reached was 500 usd.

So half the price of the ath, this time we reached 13k for fucks sake a year before halving i may add.
We are so ahead of schedule that it's understandable why people get blackpilled when it goes down.

The ammount of dormant coins is increasing so fast that we are outperforming the previous halvings.
Of course when the buying volume stops for example due to current deflation the ammount of mined coins is the same and btc corrects downwards.

BTC has a great future ahead.

>> No.18176292
File: 130 KB, 1043x1132, Lightning_network.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176292

>>18176254
>On the base layer. I've used lightning for the past three years and have done thousands of transactions per second.

Sure you have, kek. Lightning is a joke, which is why nobody cares about it and no exchanges support it. You think this worthless ad-hoc network is the future of bitcoin?

>> No.18176319

>>18176292
>no exchanges support it
Bitmex

>>18176292
>You think this worthless ad-hoc network is the future of bitcoin?
I think Bitcoin is the future of money which has world changing implications, and Lightning will be used for payments. Go use Lightning sometime. You sound ignorant, like you've never used it before.

>> No.18176327

>>18176291
is that fucking pic real ?

>> No.18176337

>>18175663
>he doesn’t know
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jfx7PnMtCeY

>> No.18176349

>>18176319
Lightning is dead and nobody cares about it. Look at the graphs. You're coping and insanely delusional.
Network capacity is down
Channels are down
Channels per node has flatlined
Capacity per node has flatlined

You keep expecting some magical turn around where you become a billionaire. It's not going to happen. stop COPING

>> No.18176359
File: 355 KB, 500x491, 1572537433319.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176359

>>18176327
:)

https://twitter.com/binance/status/1240630857729060865

>> No.18176373

>>18176349
You're looking at the wrong metrics, you retarded and depressed loser.

>> No.18176380

>>18176349
Wealth won't be measured in billions my friend.

>> No.18176387

>>18176337
I've seen you post this video several times. It's 11 minutes long. What's the tl;dr?

>> No.18176393

>>18176291
Thank you for confirming what I've already suspected about last year's attempt at an early bull run. It'll be interesting to see how far back we've delayed the real thing.

>> No.18176400

>>18176349
>Lightning is dead and nobody cares about it.
Why did Jack Dorsey invest millions into it? Because he's a nobody and an idiot?

>> No.18176404

>>18176291
It's not outperforming. What actually happened was that the pump to 10K was a front run of the halving. We won't see a pump post halving since that pump was it. People just haven't realized it.

>> No.18176409
File: 43 KB, 399x388, 1579716176491.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18176409

>>18176359
the fucking to post this when their fucking scam is literally being kept alive by tether

>> No.18176432

>>18175663
They’re killing bitcoin (the only real crypto) to make way for government cryptos. Corporate cryptos will also be a thing but function more as tokens. Sell all your cryptos for gold and silver or get physical cash.

>> No.18176515

>>18175768
It has failed as all of those

>> No.18176519

>>18176393
>Thank you for confirming what I've already suspected about last year's attempt at an early bull run. It'll be interesting to see how far back we've delayed the real thing.

We don't delayed shit , we are making the halving more powerful than ever.
The problem is that the price goes so hard up due to lack of liquidity but due to no halving yet the miners dump their liquidity.

That's usually not a problem but when buying volume goes down the pressure down is harder , also the floor is harder than ever(5.7-6.2k)

But once the halving happens there will be so little liquidity in circulation that we moon hard.

>> No.18176521

>>18176400
Jack Dorsey makes me incredibly bullish on BTC. The power he has with SQ and TWTR is immense.

>> No.18176539

>>18176404
>It's not outperforming. What actually happened was that the pump to 10K was a front run of the halving. We won't see a pump post halving since that pump was it. People just haven't realized it.

A brainlet take , about 500k coins PER MONTH are going dormant aka no one used them for over a year(more than two mtgox)
And the halving will reduce mined coins to 360k per YEAR.

Let's do the math anon , 500k coins going dormant per month now and 360k mined per year after.
Do you honestly think there will be no bullrun?

>> No.18176558

>>18175663
Is this a buy signal?

>> No.18176690

>>18176539
Let's say no more bitcoins were being produced. Would bitcoin immediately moon to $100,000,000? No, it fucking wouldn't. That doesn't make any sense.

The halving won't change shit.

>> No.18176713

>>18176690
You are wrong halving changes absolutely everything exit all fiat positions this is our last warning.

>> No.18176726

>>18176713
Moonboys are hilarious. Be sure to take out a loan, maybe refinance your house so you can buy bitcoin! I'm sure you'll be rich

>> No.18176740

>>18176726
My home is already mine. But thanks for caring.

>> No.18176797

>>18176690
>No, it fucking wouldn't. That doesn't make any sense.

Yes it would go up non stop because it's valued in a currency that loses value faster than a bitcoin that would be losing 0%.

>> No.18176818

>>18176797
So every single object which has its value measured in USD will go up infinitely? damn....

>> No.18177212

>>18176818
if they have 0 supply yes , real estate , silver & gold have very low supply and have been going up non stop since the end of bretton woods.

>> No.18177297

>>18177212
my shit is also very scarce, might I offer you some of the finest excrement you'll ever taste for the cheap sum of $100,000,000 per heap of dung?

>> No.18177342

>>18177212
What you're describing is inflation.

>> No.18177439

>>18177342
Even accounting for inflation the things he listed have increased in value, especially real estate
Jesus christ this board is shit

>> No.18177458
File: 194 KB, 1024x717, gold scarcity.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18177458

>>18177297
>my shit is also very scarce

It's not, all the gold in the world mined for thousands of years is of size pic related , your shit is abundant.

Interestingly enough in 40 days bitcoin will have the same stock to flow ratio than gold and so will xmr and ltc soon after.

>>18177342
Correct and things with lower supply than the monetary supply will go up in price.(example housing since 2008)

>> No.18177476

You faggots always come out and make these threads when the market is dumping.

>> No.18177480

>>18177458
my shit is far, far scarcer than that giant cube of shiny rock
in fact, the stock to flow ratio of my shit is far more promising for its future price than any of the assets you've mentioned
also, I plan on eating half the food I've previously done for the foreseeable future, so my shit will become twice as scarce
you should buy a heap of my dung before the price of it moons

>> No.18177502

>>18175947
and thousands of retards posting every year about how its dead

>> No.18177524

>>18177458
https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/tech/261083/giant-golden-asteroid-has-enough-heavy-metals-to-make-everyone-billionaires-and-nasa-is-heading-there-in-2022/

>> No.18177533
File: 15 KB, 420x420, snapthisgotothecollection.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18177533

>>18177480
>my shit is far, far scarcer than that giant cube of shiny rock

Yes but your shit can be produced by anyone since there is no difference between someone else shit.

>> No.18177549

>>18175663
Why do newfags think their worthless opinions are valuable?
Fuck you OP, your wasting my mother fuckin time

>> No.18177568
File: 8 KB, 171x295, wagie.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18177568

>>18177524
Nasa is launching in 2022 and will reach the asteroid in 2026.

Let's assume we have now a space mining spaceship that can bring that much gold back.

Even then it would take half a decade to go there and back.

Asteroid mining may happen after 2035 before that is dreaming , first we need leo satellite constelations to provide economies of scale.

>> No.18177646

>>18177568
>space mining

Ha! In 2021 you won't even have toilet paper

>> No.18177724
File: 110 KB, 1083x378, 1585508170779.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18177724

>>18177646
>Ha! In 2021 you won't even have toilet paper

Probably in 2020.

>> No.18178243

>>18177724
looks like >>>/x/ is bleeding over

>> No.18178272
File: 173 KB, 496x486, 1584760973463.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18178272

>>18175663
>why BTC will likely die

>Massive wall of text, start to read assuming it will be some insightful fundamental analysis of bitcoins economics

>its all based on 65IQ TA

Into the trash your opinion goes

>> No.18178962

>>18175823
>Buying toilet paper ever

>> No.18178987

>>18175663
>according to technical analysis
I stopped reading here.

>> No.18179020

>>18176069
lmao fucking retard. how can you know how people thought 7000 years ago and how is it remotely relevant

>> No.18179031

>>18175663
>according to Technical Analysis

Stopped reading. TA is fucking meaningless memelines that dont tell you shit. Kys

>> No.18179310

>>18175663
Gold you faggot. Check the prices 100 years ago.

>> No.18179372

>>18176539
you fundamentally do not understand the mechanics behind bitcoin, specifically that of what keeps the network and ability to transfer bitcoins afloat.

A simplistic 'supply demand' take does not work for a speculative asset that requires network protocol to propagate.

>> No.18179632

I wouldn't even be sad if BTC (and its bastard children) would simply die and make way for more useful coins to shine.

I don't see any point in BTC - it's not a great SoV, it doesn't work as a currency, it doesn't even work as a payment rail.

>> No.18179666

>>18175663
>technical analysis
Kill yourself.

>> No.18180198

daily reminder:
for as long as the value of bitcoin is measured in fiat - the value of 1 bitcoin goes down, even if the price in fiat remains the same

measure in gold or the exchange rate is flawed

>> No.18180698

>>18175663
Nice bait. Honestly I could have made your entire post moot but instead i'll just shill UND. It is going to a dollar. Get in.

>> No.18180721

>>18175663
>No asset in history has ever survived (and by survive I mean break ATH) long term where it experiences an a) 85+% correction and b) at the same level.
Range Resources Corporation common stock. Now fuck off and kill yourself retard.

>> No.18180741

>>18176137
Obviously. Hardened what's already there, but don't touch it. LIghtning network was a mistake, hopefully it didn't affect the core network. The 7 transaction/second isn't a problem unironically for it's purpose.

>> No.18180757
File: 1.04 MB, 290x189, laughingman.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18180757

>>18180741
>The 7 transaction/second isn't a problem unironically