/biz/ - Business & Finance

Medium optimistic scenario:
>Avg time from symptoms to death 3 weeks. The US cases 3 weeks ago: 400.
With the same logic, current 120k infections will progress into 150k deaths in 3 weeks.

See the image again. We can clearly see that such progression would actually imply that very strict restriction measures come into effect within the next days. This means numbers will probably be worse since the US has so far failed to have a meaningful impact on the spread of the virus.

Reminder: These scenarios do not even consider the unavoidable spread of the disease in the coming weeks. If the cases are expected to grow in the future, you can add a zero or two in a month.

>>18162875
>>18162897
t. Brainlet that fell for the media hoax virus

tldr:
Optimistic situation, the USA is fucked

Medium optimistic, still assuming improvement, USA is even more fucked

Realistic scenario: USA is beyond fucked

>>18162931
How do I short you

>>18162875

>>18162875
There will be a civil war in the US in 2020.

>>18162965
Have you sold the bottom you panic brainlet? Please say yes.

>>18162965
you have to go back

>>18162875
>model
>line go up
>it will go up forver!
opinion discarded
you'll look stupid within a few months

SUUUUUHUUUUHUUUUPER pessimistic scenario
>a single digit million number of people dies in the USA
Boohooo go back to work wagie

If I die I die.

>>18163032
Honestly, I have no clue what political implications are but USA society and politics will be disrupted in a way that will fuck up the country totally in the long term.

No strict measures and no guaranteed free health care for victims:
>Hundreds of thousands dead
>Trust in government & authority set to free fall
>Economy eaten to death
>Possible civil war scenarios or states suing the federation in masses not excluded

Strict measures including movement restrictions between the states, guaranteed free/affordable health care for covid victims,
>Drastic economic effect in short term, major defaults unavoidable, but that's how capitalism works. They will be replaced. Major political clash will ensue but economic recovery will be quick in 2021-2023.

The quicker the strict restrictions are put into place, the smaller the disruption will be. The momentary economic shock will be large, but if the US does not act now on the national level, the economy and society will be in a state of terminal cancer. However, I don't see US doing anything above any time soon.

On the bright side, this is the worlds greatest short opportunity.

500 MILLION DEAD SOON

>>18163218
this, but unironically.
thing is, we don't know enough about the virus yet. if it makes men infertile, it's better to shut the economy down for good.

>>18163202
Congratz retard, you failed even comprehending the simplest fucking possible model. The model is independent of future development and it requires no case growth statistic extrapolation over today. In simple terms, the only assumption static proportionality of death-case relation with time delay.

>>18163218
Actually even the very optimistic scenario can lead to million deaths, it just takes a month longer.

However, going past the time delay requires extrapolation of the case statistics to the future.

The overflow of hospital capacity and restriction measures are too big variables so I will only make projections to the near future that is within the range of selected time delay.

>>18163127
I've ten folded my assets since January 15th by listening to mathematics over retards like you.

>>18163431
Also, local herd immunity will become statistically significant after a few weeks so case extrapolation will fail at some point. But again, the positive side of the model presented is that it gives zero fuck about herd immunity or future cases as long as you don't go over the time it takes on avg from detection to death.

>>18163453
Nice Larp

Most if not all deaths have been to people who are unhealthy, old, or people with shitty immune systems. It's laughable how many people either overreact or just don't give a shit. Is their no median for you retards?

it's already been modelled out using real data. 80k dead, give or take. it's bad flu that spreads quick, we get it.

>>18163537
this is just for the US.

>>18163032
We would see those elsewhere first.

>>18163348
i don't know what you just said but this virus will turn into a meme by eoy

>>18163638
>eoy
Eom

Once a few people everyone knows get it (Assuming those people aren't in a fucking nursing home) and they're like,
"Yeah, I had a common cold." Everyone is going to feel retarded, and op will have to find a new concern troll tactic to amti-drumph with.

>>18163251

>>18163537

That's actually quite a bit, if you think about it. That would put it in the top 10, between normal flu and self-inflicted soda poisoning.

>>18163927

Forgot pic from CDC.gov

>>18163927
>>18163939
Yeah but you have to consider those other numbers are currently rising as well. Also consider that flu season is just about over so, at least in the northern hemisphere, this should slow the rate of infection. Meanwhile, most of those numbers should continue at the same rate.

>>18163537
Of course it's been modeled. Model I used also uses real data and real numbers. If you want to do comparison, dont give me a model, give me the assumptions.

But you don't need to do that. Your non peer reviewed model has already failed. It uses way too early data from the time US had only n = 46 deaths. It predicts NYS peak hospitalization in one week, but even NYS governor is expecting the earliest peak in a few weeks.

The paper also assumes that distancing policies are vigorously implemented and enforced across all states like they are enforced in data source countries China, France, Iran, Italy, and Spain. This is far from reality.

Depending on reinfections and capacity we could be fucked for a good good while.

It's pointless to compare us to previous outbreaks as we will, de facto, have the worst response. America has no idea how to healthcare in the best of times, it is now the worst of times to need healthcare.

>>18162931

Ok now do the influenza, this is a nothingburger. Fuck you leftys

>>18164145
see y'all in 28 days

>>18163537
Lol dude...
If you only knew how bad it really is...
In my canadian province with really good testing rate and super strict measures enforced 1+ week before the USA did anything, we are detecting a faster grow in tested cases than USA
just imagine how unaccurate are the US numbers right now
why ? testing material shortage
they are not testing anymore
prove me wrong
you can't

>>18164122
Corvids aside what this means is that the Australian dollar is less valuable than rust.

>>18164245
It's not exactly doubling every day. With 20% daily increase it will take 107 days

>>18163537
>>18163927
>>18163543

When it comes to death estimate, 4 Days into the 80k model we have already surpassed the 95% confidence interval top estimate. This error will compound daily.

>>18162875
statistics make for great lies
you do know the proportions of the infected and the deaths depends on how they are measured? or if they are even measured at all?

brainlets like you i can never understand, such blind trust in very uncertain things, just cause some authority said it

let me put it straight once and for all:
very few are tested for the virus
those that die are in the same group that would have died from the flu anyway

80k die every year in the US from the flu, but no headlines from that
corona kills a couple thousand and OMG ITS HAPPENING

>>18162875
people die of the flu, etc. etc.

>>18163032
No, they’d resort to giving everyone free money long before that

>>18162875
>another data modeler who refuses to show "total number of test given"

>>18163251
Yeah man! Woooo! The Partoomer. I’m gunna Partooooooom!

>>18162875
>Seemingly healthy "asymptomatic" people have been shown to have lung damage
Source on this? I'm pretty sure I got covid with minimal symptoms (slight intermittent fever and sore throat on and off for two weeks), never had a single cough or chest tightness or shortness of breath. I have a hard time believing it could have permanently ravaged my lungs without evoking any respiratory symptoms.

>>18164500
You realize things like allergies and the cold exist even with covid being around right?

>im pretty sure i had it
>mild symptoms that could be anything
Fucking idiot

>>18164500
just exercise & see
probably nothing desu...

>>18164519
I literally almost never get sick, I get a cold once every other year and the last time I had flu I was 10 years old.

This was different from anything I'd had before, the symptoms were very minimal (just small fever, sore throat, brainscuzz) but they would persist for 24-48 hours then totally go away. 3-4 days later they'd pop up again, same duration. This cycle reoccurred like 5 times over the course of 2.5 weeks, and then I finally got the hot nasal passages that tell me my body is expelling the sickness and I haven't had it recur since.

If it wasn't corona, then it was some other bizarre illness that I've never encountered before. My colds are usually 24 hour affairs with lots of mucus, wet coughing, sneezing, sniffles, etc, and they burn out fast and don't recur. This one was totally dry and hung around for almost 3 weeks. I get hayfever and it's nothing like this either. That's more wet spluttery sneezing and itchy eyes. I had neither with this illness.

Also if it's relevant I live in King County and I did a huge Costco/Winco/Fred Meyer grocery run the day before symptoms first emerged. This was early march.

>>18162897
Fake and gay. Why do you shariablue trannies never get tired of being wrong and the God Emperor always being right?

Hmmmmmm. It will never be her turn bucko, accept it.

>>18164617
i had the same symptoms
sore throat, some cough
coming and going too (unusual as fuck)
high body temp but just or ON the fever treshold
some fever-ish dreams

you'll find out by exercising
i'm going to the gym tomorrow to find out
i'm pretty familiar with how my body performs on a bike for instance

>>18163453
pls explain?

>>18163275
If you're not opening short positions on construction and engineering firms it's already over. They're next.

>>18163638
Pol continues to prove it’s THE dumbest board

>>18164617
yeah same. You're not the only one eitehr there was a thread on /pol/ where people were saying the same thing

>>18164675
I recently had a series of phlebotomies to reduce my blood ferritin from 450 to 50 (have hemochromatosis). My RBC count didn't drop at all but I've still found my endurance with exercise is complete trash now. This all happened last fall so not corona-related.

That being said, I don't feel like it's any more trash now after being sick than it was before. Anyways,

>>18162875

irrespective whether I got asymptomatic corona or not, I still want a link to the study showing lung damage in asymptomatic patients. Have a hard time believing it can deal that much damage without producing any respiratory symptoms.

>>18162875
Where are the pessimistic scenarios?

>>18164746
ive always fucked with crypto thinking of making the switch to stocks but am put off by the trading fees. Am i fucking stupid?

>>18164756
being educated doesn't mean you're smart

>>18164803
Another retarded response. I’m not talking about formal education I’m talking about your retarded “logic”

>>18164617
>>18164675
im having the same shit right now
sore throat, some cough coming and going
no fever but extremely laziness and some pain back in my eyes
it's been 2-3 weeks like that

>>18164830
your model is up there with btc stock to flow charts
it's all based on assumptions and it's not gonna work out

>>18164500
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE68xVXf8Kw
>We started to realize that patients coming for abdominal pain have CT scans consistent with COVID-19
>Someone in a car accident, we take a CT scan, and their lungs look like they have coronavirus

>https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/lung-damage-seen-in-recently-asymptomatic-coronavirus-patient/
>Lung damage seen in recently asymptomatic coronavirus patient

>https://www.radiologybusiness.com/topics/care-delivery/ultrasound-coronavirus-covid-19-x-ray-ct-scan-radiology
>Providers at one Italian emergency department started realizing that they could not use age or comorbidity to determine which COVID-19 patients might develop severe pneumonia.
>"Only by using a test that can assess the situation of the lung at the beginning of the disease do you become aware that pneumonia can also be present,” said Volpicelli, with the University Hospital San Luigi Gonzaga, adding that’s the case “even in patients with mild or almost no symptoms.”

>>18162875


>>18162897


Nice larp chink lmao.

It's a nothing burger. Stop being so hysterical. It's just another libshit attack on Trump. Trump completed his promise by ensuring new ATHs of the market, what makes you think he'll suddenly break his promise? He's never broken one, he won't start now before his reelection.

>>18164145
Very accurate

>>18164776
>Where are the pessimistic scenarios?
Well, if you use the ultra simplified model I presented it becomes inaccurate in more pessimistic scenarios because the number of deaths/infections is not statistically significant in the US if you go back in history more than 3 weeks.

You can take an alternative pessimistic/realistic scenario by extrapolating of the log-linear progression into the near future ( just follow the red line straight). However, like I told, this way of modelling requires an extrapolation into the future and it does not predict plateauing so you cannot go really far into the future. This gives you 1 million infections on 5th April and 100k dead by 11th April.

I could use some better epidemic models but US data shows zero positive development so you cannot really fit s-curves because the US restriction measures have not been enough yet. Thus you'd need more advanced simulations where upper bound is set by population herd immunity, aka we'd be looking at disease progressing through the whole population. I don't see this as a realistic scenario because the US needs to implement stronger restrictions.

>>18165521
This. Only r*ddit still cares about this fake shit. You faggots missed the bottom. Enjoy bagholdingt hose puts and 3x inverse ETFs.

>>18165521
>the WHOLE WORLD is on quarentine due to Coronavirus
>"the libs are attacking Trump!"
How old are you? Just wondering. You are either very young or a boomer.

>>18165521
>what makes you think he'll suddenly break his promise? He's never broken one
I really want to know how many of you children will kill yourselves when your god fails you in November, just as he's failed you in the past three years of his campaign.

>>18165521
>it's just another libshit attack on Trump
3 billion people are confined you absolute brainlet

>>18162937
>tldr:
>Optimistic situation, the USA is fucked
>Medium optimistic, still assuming improvement, USA is even more fucked
>Realistic scenario: USA is beyond fucked

Most of these deaths will be boomers and diabetes-heads. No loss to society.

Business and finance. Sperging about "what if?" deaths. Fuck off doomer.

Lol, China flu team is dropping the truth one bread crumb one at a time.

Even Fauci is now publicly talking about 200k deaths. Next month he'll cite a million deaths.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fr9473/covid19_could_claim_100000_to_200000_lives_in_us/

>>18166377
>Business and finance. Sperging about "what if?" deaths. Fuck off doomer.

Deaths do affect business. Most boomers are net drains on the economy. They are retired and collecting money or they perform top level jobs poorly. Retirees and poor managers/executives can easily be replaced by millennials for the better of the economy.

We should see less healthcare and retirement costs to society with the loss of the boomers. We should also expect the politics to shift towards more nationalism. Boomers didn't care about the nation as they only cared about themselves.

Porch monkeys should also died off due to their poor health, hygenie and defiance towards following the rules (even if these quarantine rules are for the better). This will lead to less welfare payments, less section 8 housing and less crime. All of this is a net boom for society. The loss of the orcs will also push politics towards nationalism as orcs don't even care about their own kids, let alone the nation.

>>18166262
The people running your nation and companies are fat fucks, boomers and diabetes-heads.

Surely the young generation may benefit in long term. You'll have a full society mayhem before you get to fully enjoy your preponed inheritance though.

>>18166377
There is no "what if". There is no extrapolation or speculation to the future. Any other situation requires the "what if" scenarios. You don't understand basic mathematics.

>>18166405
Total deaths 5-8 million US by EoY 2020. Worst case 12, best case about 2.

>>18164444
what a waste of quads

>>18166461
>You'll have a full society mayhem before you get to fully enjoy your preponed inheritance though.

Good. It was a fucked boomer society. I will enjoy watching it burn.

In fact, I can't wait for the chance to crack my knuckles and pay a visit to my old friend jewy jewington the 3rd. Should be fun.

>>18166461
if you're trying to have a rational discussion you're in the wrong place. you're talking to neckbeard poltards that live in BFE alabama. they won't believe you until maw maw gets infected a month from now.

>>18167202
>you're talking to neckbeard poltards that live in BFE alabama

Neckbeards? Stereotypes of rural Americans? What kind of a sexist and racist bigot are you? The SJWs are not happy with your hate, sir. You better apologize before you get banned or doxxed or antifa comes after you.

>>18167202
Why are you so racist? Get back to /pol/ you fucking nazi hateful bigot

>>18164444
>quad quads
The best kind of quads.

>>18164785
Just use webull or Robin hood.
No fees/commissions applied there.

>>18166461

You’re correct about your projections, provided the disease progresses at a consistently exponential pace. Deaths will then obviously mirror the exponential growth of the disease, in a time delayed manner.

The problem is that for any period beyond a few days to a week, the effect of herd immunity blunts the exponential aspect of the disease spread.

The site below has done pretty good mathematical models that take this into account. It’s searchable nationally and also by state. They are projecting deaths to peak around April 15, and slow to almost zero by July. Total dead between 50k and 160k.

http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections

>>18167488
>>>18167202
>Why are you so racist? Get back to /pol/ you fucking nazi hateful bigot

Yeah, I can't stand those racist Caucasianphobes. They are so full of hate.

>>18167525
>You’re correct about your projections, provided the disease progresses at a consistently exponential pace. Deaths will then obviously mirror the exponential growth of the disease, in a time delayed manner.

The simpleton model presented in the beginning, again, does not require an exponential increase in the future. It only reflects existing data to project the deaths in the future, because they are delayed in reality too.

>The problem is that for any period beyond a few days to a week, the effect of herd immunity blunts the exponential aspect of the disease spread.

Herd immunity becomes meaningful when a significant number (let's say 10%+ at state level) of the local population becomes infected. But anycase, the future is hard to predict and that's why I avoided future extrapolation of the confirmed cases.

>The site below has done pretty good mathematical models that take this into account. It’s searchable nationally and also by state. They are projecting deaths to peak around April 15, and slow to almost zero by July. Total dead between 50k and 160k.
>http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections

The vizualizations are nice, but this same model was already adressed here >>18164061 >>18164353

The model assumes similar restriction measures as are enforced in Europe _in all states_. And we went past the 95% upper estimate confidence interval already yesterday.

>>18162965
Buy rhinovirus.

>>18163638
sure as shit

>>18162875
Jannie clean up this shit and ban the Pajeet faggot

>>18164617
>>18164675
Corroborating with my own experience
>flu like symptoms after dad gets back from business trip to japan in January
>wekt away after a week
>a few days later, dry cough/earache/sinus infection
>mucinex does nothing
>goes away after two weeks
>felt exhausted for a month after
>fine now, went jogging because it was nice out yesterday
Only my father and I got sick in a household of 5, one who is 90 years old. I hope it was corona, because that means that it is just a cover narrative for the financial markets doing what they were designed to do.

>>18163251

>>18168481
Oh, and yeah I had sweats/chills but never took temp.