/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18147774
How absolutely in the fuck have we had a crash worse than 1929 holy fuck? What in the fuck is going on, are we going to be in a worse economic downturn than 2008 this time?

>>18148934
maybe
the truth is that nobody has any fucking idea what's going to happen
this crash is very weird. it's not a natural economic event like all the other ones. we've never really tanked our economy on purpose like this before, nobody can say what comes next now.

>>18148934
>How absolutely in the fuck have we had a crash worse than 1929 holy fuck?
-A huge economic bubble that was never fixed
-A large-scale pandemic that just beat down on everything and will likely not let up for months

>>18147774
*pump

>>18147774
I have 30k USD to play with... I don't want puts. What's best to short?

this is a controlled demolition

>>18148934
>Banks and hedge funds were levered to the hilt to push yield just like 1929/2008.
>Businesses have minimal reserves as they used all the money to buyback stock to push their valuations even higher. These businesses are not operating at zero revenue. No one knows when things will get better even if people are told to go out, they may not. Banks do not want to lend to businesses that they think might fail so credit is freezing up.
>A large portion of the country is dependent on stocks/bonds maintaining their value so that they can retire. If it looks like things wont recover, these people will sell so they can retire on what little they have left, causing a waterfall of positive feedback selling.

>>18147774
It's a nothing burger

>>18149080
There is one buyer left. The FED. they will own the country. So roshkid family will own the county

>>18148934
Worse than 1929

>>18148969
>this crash is very weird. it's not a natural economic event like all the other ones.
complete bullshit.

yield curve inverted in 2019, this is a natural economic recession being covered up with a CIA/Mossad/US bioweapon.

>>18147774
There will be a couple of weeks of recovery in response to all the money being handed out, gotta keep up appearances you know.

And then, DUMP

>>18149115
Maybe you should look at the x axis aswell...

>>18149320
Yeah, that's what I'm expecting. Things will seem to be superficially improving, and then BAM, everyone starts selling and there's a huge economic downturn.

>>18148934
Worse than 2008 in the sense that the bubble is much bigger, so we have further to fall

>>18149115
Note that Spanish flu didn't hit perfectly in time with the financial cycle
This set of circumstances is an amazing and probably once-in-our-lifetime coincidence

I'm buying in

>Brrrrrrr line goes up

>>18148971
It's really that simple. A little bit of great depression and a little bit of Spanish flu.

>>18147774
>Using TA unironically

>>18149690

This isn't TA.

This is a graph that represents the psychological fluctuations of millions of human participants in the stock market.

It's very relevant since human reactions have not changed for thousands of years.

>>18147774
nah, much sharper and quicker if crashes follow the trend. recovery will happen before you know it.

>>18147774
HOLY SHIT

>>18147774
bbbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

>>18147774
incoming 4000-5000 point drop?

>>18147774
I want the dead cat to last another week, then crash.

>>18149080
banks arent levered to the hilt idiot. they're not allowed to be anymore. banks are becoming more and more like utilities. its actually corporations that have taken on the leverage. they saw what banks did in 08 and decided to do the same thing. pay ratings agencies for AAA ratings on their worthless junk bonds.

>>18149017
China, buy the CHAD ETF..

>>18147774
For me, its gonna be all in vanguard high dividend etfs when this thing hits 12k.

>>18147774
>Muh squiggle looks like muh other squiggle
You are a faggot.
One was caused by the Federal Reserve and the other a natural catastrophic event.
Don't worry though, as soon as you are back behind your register and all the soccer moms can get out and burn their husband's cash again, things will feel a little normal again.

>>18150940
Was condiering YVM, and QQQ
Both dividend stocks

Butttttttt i think i may go with UDOW which is 3x dow movement.

When ya think the bottom is gonna be? And how much ya putting in?
Im thinking in a month or so, got 25k free.

>>18148934
>2008
Literally crisis of the 3rd century.

>>18151156
Im thinking it'll go down to like 8k before settling back to 14k once we've got the virus under some sort of control. Like, with these riots happening in china it seems that the west hasnt even been hit with the brunt of it yet, if that makes sense.

>>18149609
Reverse trend, i will buy too, FED has infinite ammunation aka cash and digits on their side and we are on the edge to hyperinflation...so stocks will gain value no matter what

>>18148934
Worse. We had a fucking huge corporate debt bubble. $4.2 trillion in corporate debt comes due in 2020 alone, mostly in the summer when we may still be shut down.

Of that, $1.2 trillion is speculative grade shit.

Of investment grade, 52% is BBB, one grade above speculative. If BBB gets downgraded, institutional investors, such as pensions and mutuals, are legally required to sell.

When revenue falls and they can't roll the debt, default risk spikes. Boom, downgrades and fire sales.

The reason people calmed down was:
1. Conservative media has been pumping out op eds by people with good sounding titles that this say "it's just flu."
2. Fed authorized buying some corporate bonds. But if they go full unlimited lending window to BBB borrowers, there might be a confidence crisis.

Now it is getting impossible to say "it's flu!"

>>18148969
the months leading up to this crash looked like shit was going to crash. The virus is just a coincidence.

>>18151599

Don't forget the mortgage industry. Every shithead landlord real estate speculator wants a bailout. If I knew the Fed was going to be bailing out people with multiple properties then I would have taken out 3 or 4 mortgages and become an irresponsible speculator with ome or two months worth (or even zero cash) reserves, too.

>>18151611
>The virus is just a coincidence

A Cohen-cidence, bew Jews.

i'm jacked... I AM JACKED TO THE TITSSS

>>18151802
based

>18%

money is going to be "cheap" soon, everyone is getting some for free for the most part, once this new money is spent we should enter a period of deflation. this is when things may get bad.

>>18149443
I'm waiting for the Treasury to buy up all the bags they can and then I'll make my move.

>>18150796
See this guy knows what he’s talking about

>>18147774
the last couple of weekends where Bitcoin dropped, the market dropped on Monday.
I don't think the -6% of this weekend will amount to much more than a 2-4% drop on Monday.

>>18148969
Natural.. Hah! Good one.

>>18149492
And i still missed a chance to short

Apologize

>>18150796
You're wrong, banks are 100% levered. They also no longer require any reserves to lend. If there was a run on cash they would collapse which is why you can't withdraw more than $2500 cash in massively affected states right now like in NY, and also why the FDIC is actively telling people not to panic rush banks

>>18149038

High IQ Post

>>18147774
literally the perfect time to short!

Dump already happened you brainless cunts, cant even use fractals properly. KYS niggers.

>>18152478
Sorry

>>18152729
Using meme lines and useless TA to try and interpret what is going to happen in a situation that has literally never happened like this before.

Just go ahead and KYS now, because you will be looking for rope in a couple weeks anyhow.

who would win?
TA or Brrrrrrrr