/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>17920955
I predict metals are the first thing to go to nothing and while they'll go back up eventually, it will be very, very slow. Keep in mind that virtually nobody useful has precious metals anymore.
In your position, I would take everything out and wait for a clear bull signal to buy in again.

>>17921019
how low are we talking? and what time frame? personally i think a couple months from now corona will be a memory, would the markets really take much longer to recover? the last thing i want to do is concede $500 now and miss the fuarking recovery

>>17921140
Corona is not going to be any less than 6 months, and most likely closer to a year. The reason for this is multipart, but the most important is that emergency measures are not all wiped out at once, they're removed in phases. As a result, this will significantly delay the end of the crisis even when nobody else is infected anymore.
I believe the market will bottom out near 10% under the 1929 levels, but there is no reason to give much weight to this estimate as it's based on eyeballing the relative fall rate, whereas it's not clear how governments will react worldwide and that's what's going to decide everything. The only scenario that I expect would not lead to lower-than-1929 levels is if corona magically come to an end tomorrow (and all measures therefore be waived within the next 3 months - note that this is impossible even if you assume a vaccine is found right this second),
As for precious metals themselves, I expect that they will significantly under-perform other stocks, probably with an extra loss between 50%.

>>17921330
ok, so say the time came to buy. 5 dollar silver or whatever. do you think this medium can be trusted? some anons think there will be a huge disparity between paper and physical, do you think that would affect my ability to liquidate or will the option to cash out always be there?

>>17921438
Without gold, electronics production is no longer possible. Similar principles apply to the other metals, which is why they are guaranteed to be cashable.
Because every country's economy is going down the shitter together, I don't believe there will ever be any issue cashing out (no locality bias causing discrepancy in metal prices based on how well each country is propping back up). Platinum and silver should be excellent buys if you know where the bottom is but will probably rise quite fast and be hard to time (based on historical sudden increases in metal prices and its timing with regard to the economy at the time).
Moreover, the first thing that will happen when the quarantines are lifted is production, especially silicon (= needs gold).
I believe this is also why gold is not going down as hard as other metals right now.

>>17921581
if i really really dont want to lose money right now should i just buy to the bottom? will i see a return by the end of the year? very new to all this and i hope i didn't fuck up

>>17921653
>if i really really dont want to lose money right now should i just buy to the bottom?
No, catching the bottom is always hard/impossible in good cases and if my prediction is correct, you won't make it in this case.
You should sell, wait for the hysteria to subside, and go all in in something basically guaranteed like s&p500.
>will i see a return by the end of the year?
If my predictions are correct, there is no easy/mid to longterm strategy that will make money this year.

>>17922032
This is terrible advice (buy the s&p LMAO)

>>17920955
Keep holding your precious metals anon.

>>17922232
>don't buy into the one thing that's guaranteed to moon as soon as the situation recovers
>do buy the thing that's guaranteed to go to almost nothing and do it right now instead of when it's actually low
OK kid

>>17920955
if it's a lot of money cash it, and make it real instead of having it be wealth on paper

>>17922364
but a bank statement is wealth on paper anon

>>17922328
OH LMAO you're right, I didn't see it was certificates, not physical

Yeah kid, don't buy paper

>>17922580
i just want to know that i won't get straight up fucked over. i know if the dollar crumbles then a digital guarantee of metals might not hold, but surely this is better than just sitting on money in a time like this?

>>17920955
buying gold, not holding in your safe, never gonna make it