/biz/ - Business & Finance

SOMEBODY GIVE ME A YOUTUBE VIDEO TO WATCH ABOUT IT I ASKED IN TWO THREADS ALREADY

first & last

YES KEEP CRASHING

Reminder that the DOW is going to 20000 before the recovery can begin

People will stop paying for their cars and houses but will not lose them because SARS is going to infect 40-60% of the country and nobody in their right mind is going to help kick possibly infected people out of their houses or repossesstheir cars since that has a huge chance of getting them infected too.

Hourly workers will worry about paying for food but not rent. Someone tells you to leave, just say you've been coughing. Someone tries to physically remove you, tell them you feel sick. Nobody else is going to want to move into the apartment after someone with a cold moved out in the middle of a pandemic where the most common symptoms could look like a cold or flu before becoming deadly.

The stock market has so much room to fall. Don't know how fast the fed moves but if the CDC really doesn't do more testing of their own and continues to forbid anyone else from testing (which honestly appears deliberately malicious now) until mid-March (as I read in one Hawaiian paper explaining why Hawaii was going to ask another country for testing kits) then maybe the fed will have a window during the next few weeks to do something before we start having the scary doublings of confirmed cases from 2000 to 4000 to 8000 etc.

However, how much can they do? And if they pick a plan, how fast can they react to changing conditions?

Honestly, even if things don't get much worse than they are now and your life is only disrupted to the point that might happen due a hurricane, this drop still is only half the level of the 2018 one that didn't have a world-threatening SARS pandemic behind it. Late 2018 was -18%, wasn't it? While we're still only at -9% this week? The absence of a deadly SARS pandemic tanked the market to -18%, how far do you think it can go in the presence of one?

We're nowhere near -18% on this dip even if this pandemic happens without any other single event that sparks a greater dip.

STOP MAKING MULTIPLE THREADS YOU NEWFAG CANCER

OP is a retard, this is the right thread
>>17467911

>>17467911

>>17467911

right thread here
>>17467911

>>17467911

>>17467911

PUT THE HENTAI BACK IN THE OP YOU FUCKS

>>17467977
And here are some events that could still happen and spark a greater dip:- Public panic, people panic shopping etc as the first confirmed cases start doubling

- Given Italy has locked down cities there's a chance of other European and even US cities being locked down. Bet an NYC lockdown is not priced in.

- Bet a 10-20% death rate including the young and healthy isn't priced in either but that also can't be ruled out as a serious possibility given NYT confirmed earlier this week that there was a day when 32/229 = 14% of the Italian confirmed cases were in the ICU or dead. For something that could hit 40-60% of the population, 10% needing the ICU to help them breathe is just going to be 10% dead because there's probably at most 150k machines that can provide that kind of support in the entire US and most of them are likely already in use for people with serious diseases before SARS 2 showed up. Add that to the 2-5% death rate even going by the current downplayed+ optimistic numbers that also have the benefit of a
healthcare system that hasn't been strained yet and we could see 12-15% death rates from this thing that spreads more easily than the flu.

- Bet a full pause of the US workforce for an entire month or more because everyone is too afraid to go to work hasn't been priced in either.

- Given this probably spreads exponentially, something like half the total to be infected may all get infected around the same time near the end of the infected. Sounds like a recipe for peak fear, probably has not been priced in because who could possibly price that?

Don't know how much QE it would take to support prices or make a recovery *right now*, but if any of those above possibilities occur then the market is gonna fall even harder and farther.