/biz/ - Business & Finance

Factories aren't just gonna close

The Apocalypse will be bitcoin and silver

>>17304313
Gold, but not silver and bitcoin.

Not bitcoin because it requires a functioning infrastructure, and not silver because the utility demand will collapse with the factories.

>>17304277
>No employees = No production = No profit = Closure
Pretty fucking straight forward

Everything is being primed for the automation + blockchain revolution...

>>17304182
buy puts faggot

>>17304326
Holy shit this anon is a fucking retard!

>>17304337
Except everyone in china is affected so there's a universal understanding of nobody is gonna get money from these factories

>>17304326
God told me in dream "When you think you should be buying gold.... BUY SILVER!"

>>17304369
If you look at the silver chart from the last crash, silver dropped 52% and didn't start to climb until after TARP was passed.

>>17304424
>Hurr Durr one time something happened so all the time the same thing will happen
Get the fuck on you dumb fucker!

>>17304182
>Bitcoin will moon
>so will gold
Not silver silver fags are outta luck

>>17304418
If you bought silver just before the housing crash and held until today, you'd still be down 26.8%. You could have made good money if you sold when it peaked in April 2011, but do you trust yourself to call the top?

>>17304474
My country will probably end up like Venezuela

>>17304474
How much gold for a loaf of bread in the post apocalyptic world?

>>17304326
Mother fucker thinks bitcoins just going to stop fucking working.
>who the fuck let you have access to the internet

>>17304277
It's extremely expensive to own a factory that isn't being used. There's monthly costs that have to be paid regardless of your utilization of the factory.

Most companies don't have a huge reserve float, they can't keep the lights on indefinitely. Many companies, especially in countries like China (or other SEA countries, or India, etc) can only afford maybe 2-4 weeks of non-operation before they run the risk of bankruptcy.

Factories will begin closing much sooner than you think.

>>17304447
It didn't happen just once. During the crash of 1987, silver dropped and never regained it's price until 2006. In the 1929 crash, the price of silver didn't recover until 1934.

Wishing that silver is a hedge against disaster doesn't make it so. Sorry.

>>17304494
Whats your country

>>17304506

>>17304513
>Derpa derp derp it happened in the past so it must happen in the future
Holy shit image being this low IQ lmfao!

>>17304511
And it gets worst than that, as we were reminded in 1929, 1987 and 2008...

Companies rely on debt to fund their day to day operations. In order to get the loans, they use the stock in their own companies as collateral for their loans.

When the price of their stock tanks, they have to come up with more collateral to cover the loans they have and the daily loans they need. If they can't find it, they don't get the loans and they go out of business.

Frozen credit has been the cause of the crashes of 1929 and 2008; there is no reason to doubt it won't be the cause of the next one.

>>17304538
sorry, I was mistaking you for someone who could read a chart. Tell you what, go all in on silver. I'm sure it will end just fine for you.

>>17304182
Will this trigger some countries becoming nationalists and recreating manufacturing in their countries again? This could be a great chance for revolution in the western world

>>17304574
Lol, ok new fag, whatever you say!

Nothing is happen, you retarded. It's just the minor flu. China government has under control.

>>17304574
He's just a larping faggot dude.
Amazing how stocks haven't been hit a little harder already

>>17304658
If the world survives long enough, yes.

Especially in the US, companies sold their souls to the Chinese for cheap production costs. They will quickly discover that this only works with a functioning supply chain.

But again, it will also depend on whether the world survives. Most people don't appreciate how close we came to losing it all last time; and this next time will be worse because the fed never stopped pumping money into the market.

>>17304694
I think the 3 month clock is ticking. For better or worse, public companies have to report their earnings quarterly, and they're not going to be able to hide the impact of the reduced supply and demand from china. Companies like Apple, nVidia, AMD, and a bunch more are neck deep into china and can't afford the loss.

Hopefully someone will remember to turn off the automated trading machines. As soon as earnings come out they're going to get out of hand pretty quick.

>>17304690
0.3 Yuan has been deposited into your account

>>17304709
People realized too late that the true danger of the coronavirus wasn't the coronavirus itself.

>>17304411
>not counting for fixed overhead costs
Are you a homeless faggot that doesn't pay rent or shlomo shekels? Even the homeless got to pay food.

Hopefully link is implemented in to derivatives before this happens

What countries are saved from coronavirus?

>>17304326
>>17304474
>>17304513
Spoken like a true, 67 year old man. Compelling. What is your prediction on bitcoins price once the functioning infrastructure ceases to exist?

>>17304794
Which country is safe from the world economy crumbling down? None.

>>17304795
Well, at first there will be a disruption since a majority of bitcoin mining operations are in China. But that will fix itself as domestic miners come online.

But in the US there are other problems. I remember reading a report in 2014 that the US doesn't even produce certain power grid parts anymore, and that they ALL have to be ordered from china. So that's a risk.

But... if the real collapse happens, bitcoin will be the least of your worries. Running water, heating your home, and getting food will be. That and when the ATM's stop kicking out cash. We were about a month away from that when TARP finally passed, we may not be so lucky this time.

It's possible that this will all blow over before it blows up the world, but there's not guarantee.

As for bitcoin? I guess I would say that when you're traveling around in your Mad Max mobile, no one is going to care about electrons on a thumb drive.

just buy Corona coin $NCOV they burn tokens every 48 hours based on current death rate. I think the airdrop is still up and running too

>>17304857
wut?

>>17304857
another market manipulated by the chinese
> can't trust their death counts

>>17304907
is this you?

>>17304938
nope, I'm just saying that basing a crypodeath coin on the most untrustworthy people in the world is probably a bad idea.

If people werent so materialistic there wouldnt be a problem

chinese factories could go down for 1 billion years and it wouldnt affect me because I dont buy useless shit I only buy food, gas, gym membership and crypto

>>17305000
it's based off of official numbers from WHO. You can complain about the legitimacy for all I care. https://coronatoken.org/

>>17305044
It isn't always that cut and dry. For every factory in the US, you have the diners, bars, bowling alleys, grocery stores, etc; all who rely on the purchasing power of the employees of the factory. And when those jobs disappear, so do the other businesses. Just look at the decay in factory towns, where they turn into ghost towns in a few years once everyone packs up and moves away.

How long will your gym stay in business if it loses 1/2 their customers and can't pay their rent? Same for your grocery store

>>17304511
China doesnt rely on shit , they're communist

>>17305088
Why would those places all rely on the purchasing power of chinese factory employees? The only thing chinese buy from us is property to launder their money out of the country and that's the reason rent is so unnaffordable in the first place

It's just a flu bro

>>17305119
Got any family who depend on drugs or going for an operation? Because 80% of US drugs are sourced from China, alot solely made there. Certain infrastructure parts solely sourced in China, anything requiring heavy earth elements that’s in the power grid is also sourced from China. If those factories and ports stay closed yeah there’s going to be alot of disruption in the rotw.
https://theconversation.com/the-silent-threat-of-the-coronavirus-americas-dependence-on-chinese-pharmaceuticals-130670

>>17305119
No, what I'm saying is this...

There are retail companies in the US that rely on China for the products they sell. There are factories in the US that rely on Chinese parts to build their products. If the Chinese supply is shut down and they can't make/sell their products in the US, the retail shop / factory has no sales, but still has to pay rent, fixed costs, etc. They can't stay in business that way.

Take apple, for example (though they are not the best example because they have a lot of cash... roughly 90% of all apple products are made in china. So if the chinese ports are shut down, or their factories can't run because all of the employees are dying, Apple has nothing they can sell, so their sales go down to zero. But their overhead remains, so they bleed cash until they can figure out other sources of production. Apple may be able to survive that, but most companies can't.

>>17304182
Literally every other country in Asia is a competitor. China will collapse not the world dummy.

>>17305110
It's not about China relying on shit it's about shit relying on china

>>17305203
China accounts for 20% of the worlds manufacturing output. Other nations may try to take over, but that's going to take time, and a whole lot of money to build the factories and train the workers.

Here are a few of the companies who rely on China for >10% of their revenue. Now imagine how many other companies rely on the products/services of these companies, and you will start to understand what kind of exposure we're talking about.

>>17304849
>electrons on a thumbdrive
Thank you based retard. Guess i'll trade all my stocks for grain and fake shiny rocks

>>17305252
Based on this guys experiences, lighters would be worth more than fake shiny rocks.

>>17305230
Child you don't understand how the world works. Most of Latin America and basically all of Asia produce the same goods.
That 20% seems like a lot until you realize that will be split across 10s of countries that already have the factories and laborers.
India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia l, Thailand, Philippines, etc.
If you look at your products you'll be surprised to find out that many of their tags no longer say made in China. My casio watch is from Thailand my nike shirts are from Honduras and Pakistan, my dress shirts wear made in Vietnam, my cheap cups/plates are from Thailand and Philippines. My nikon camera was made in Thailand. Etc etc.

>>17305340
PRECURSORS

>>17305340
Don't count on that. You can't remove 20% of the supply of anything and expect business as usual. Meanwhile, in terms of the overall world supply...

Electric blankets.... 82% come from china
Umbrellas.. 83% come from china
Video game consoles... 45%
Cooking appliances...65%
Electric toasters... 83%
Thermoses... 74%
Radios / tape recorders... 64%
Baby carriages... 58%

The world got drunk on cheap chinese production. If that shuts down, even if other nations try to pick up the production, that will still take more than 4 months, and 4 months is all the world economy can survive with a disruption in supply.

>>17304777

>>17305340
>Latin America
dude no
we buy almost everything from china
national production is fucking low

>>17305442
More of China's part in the overall world supply...

Ships...45%
Coal...48%
Pork...49%
Cement... 60%
Shoes...63%
Solar Panels...80%
Light bulbs...80%
Air conditioners... 80%
Personal computers... 90%
Antibiotics... 90%


Neodymium (needed for magnets in electronics)... 80%

>>17304777
Checked

>>17305442
>>17305504
>>17305507
You misunderstand how fast markets move. I didn't say the markets will be unaffected but it won't be a doomsday event for anyone but china and maybe a couple of rich jews who rely on them.
Markets may be hit and we may see a small to medium sized global recession maybe. But the resulting booms in India, Pakistan, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, USA, Japan, S Korea, Germany, Poland, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey etc will be good for organic growth and the world.
The only people this bodes poorly for are the Chinese, mega rich and people who speculate on the.
For the average citizens of most countries this is a great thing.
It is taking manufacturing hegemony away from the Chinese.

>>17305705
Even if people have a moment of clarity and realize hey maybe giving china all this production leverage is retarded, it's not gonna change the past. A lot of American companies rely on China and those will be hit in the coming months.

>>17305705
i own 40 bsv
will i ever have hedge money?

>>17305198
i can't believe you typed all this out for these absolute fucking retards. you're a better man than me.

>>17304182
do they eat the bat penis too? WTF

I work for a company that does manufacturing. They've already reopened 50% of their factories with sanitation measures in place. You're also forgetting that a lot of these companies only source to the factories. They could easily get their parts from other countries. India and the rest of Asia would gladly take the work.

>>17304518
USA

>>17305730
I was trying to bring a conversation over from /pol/. It isn't politics, so I thought it was best in /biz/. The cryptohounds are a lost cause, but I was hoping for more people coming over.

>>17305507
It's gonna get super fucking bad for sure.
But there isn't any doubt that we will survive it. 100% humanity isn't going anywhere. As for our water and power infrastructure 90% that will be largely fine. You mentioned some parts of the electric infrastructure isn't made in the US anymore. Those parts are also ordered years in advance and so this disruption won't matter. Crypto will be fine.
Biggest threat is general mass panic.
>>17305274
Also, this pic is in reference to a city under siege which is not comparable to an entire country whose farms and transportation is still functioning. Especially when they produce their own oil like the US.

>>17305820
>But there isn't any doubt that we will survive it.
My concern is more about the contagion that can come from certain key stocks (publicly held companies) being hit.

If you consider the early days of the depression... we had the factories, we had the workers, but we still had factories closed and a 25% unemployment rate. That's because the real danger is the frozen credit markets; and with cross collateralization and the interconnection between companies, it's a real danger.

That's why the next 3-4 months is going to be make or break. A bunch of companies are going to miss their target sales/profit as a result of china. When they do their stock price is going to get hit. If the AI trading bots aren't turned off, they will wreck the stocks and then it will carry over to other stocks.

I had a fairly front row seat for the crash around 2008. It was amazing how quickly it spread.

>>17305726
Which companies rely on China the most? Apple, AMD, who else? And I need to find out a percentage too of the factories of companies in China?

>>17305890
I agree. The stock market will be a fucking bloodbath. At least it will if I haven't underestimated the federal reserve's ability to pump it for the 10 millionth time. It's ridicules we're at all time highs right now.
The biggest risk I see is the virus itself spreading in the western world. You can plan for all sorts of financial eventualities but once you cough your in God's hands.

https://archive.is/TkS5G
interesting read

>>17305951
Post screenshot I can’t click it

Soooo , short alibaba stock is what you’re saying ??

>>17305979
it's called copy paste you nigger

>>17305705
Even if manufacturing is diversified to different countries, a lot raw materials and parts come from China. You can't just move manufacturing to countries when those countries don't have the necessary raw materials, infrastructure, and expertise.

>>17305999
I'm thinking of shorting Wynn Resorts. I'm going to have to verify the information, but I saw one article that 70% of their revenue come from China, AND they have a P/E ratio of 114.9, which means it's already overpriced. They report earnings somewhere between May 6th-10th, so I may buy puts that expire shortly after that.

Here's a website chart showing companies with heavy china exposure:

https://theatlas.com/charts/r1LNVhQ7e

>>17304411
Most businesses don't have cash reserves to just be fuckking closed for weeks retard.

the U.S. plan has always been to force a slow decoupling of the U.S. and China and then work to convince the rest of the democratic world (the EU, Australia, Canada, Latin America, Japan, etc.) to decouple from China, as well. I can absolutely see President Trump using the coronavirus as a cover for shutting down or at least drastically reducing imports from China.

>>17306023
That's simply not the case. The raw materials are worldwide. China's biggest natural resource by far is human labour.
Split between the countries I listed and more there exists the infrastructure raw materials and expertise.
In the end this is good for everyone who isn't Chinese or profitable solely because of them.

>>17305897
If you look at Trump's list of tariffs, it's consists entirely of industrial goods, electronic equipment, and electronic parts. All trades and manufacturing would be affected except for those that never source their inventory from China, directly or indirectly.

>>17306147
China produces 95% of the world's rare earths. Rare earths is crucial for modern technology.

>>17306147
To quote this article "China is home to at least 85% of the worlds capacity to process rare earth ores into material manufacturers can use... it would take YEARS to build enough processing plants to mach China's processing capacity"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-rareearth-explainer/u-s-dependence-on-chinas-rare-earth-trade-war-vulnerability-idUSKCN1TS3AQ

>>17306210
>>17306222
That just bodes well for the next 10+ countries who already produce rare earths and North Korea who is sitting on more rare earths than China.
China is fucked. Not everyone else.

>>17306320
Again, I think you're missing the point. Rare earth's are necessary for the production of everything from cell phones to missile systems. China currently is the world supplier for these rare earth's. If their production is shut down or their ports are closed, it would take YEARS for other countries to ramp up production to match what is lost from China.

Do you think the world can wait years for the next cell phone to be produced? Or the next solar panel? The US federal government has been stockpiling them for defense use, but the consumer market is hanging out there.

Meanwhile, what happens to all of the tech companies who can no longer produce and sell the products that earn them their sales?

>>17306360
A chink financial holocaust does not an apocalypse make. What you're saying would be more effective if the situation was different.
1 there are 10 plus countries that have the where with all to produce and can ramp up production.
2 Chinese production hasn't come a complete halt nor will it.
3 markets flow and just because China will wane doesn't mean everyone will lose.

>>17304506
if their is a collapse, Bitcoin will soar because US dollars will take a hit. China is all in Bitcoin and blockchain. The digital yuan or Bitcoin will become the new standard currency of choice. The coronavirus was the black swan event triggering a halt of Chinese exports to the US. China will find a way using blockchain, Bitcoin, and their own digital currency to do business with countries. The US dollar is finally going to die.

>>17304182
I work IT for a Fortune 500 company. Lenovo products are on back order for god knows how long. Ordered standard 4 and 5 hundred series thinkpads and est. ship date is months out. Ordered a Lenovo x390 yoga on Jan. 23 and it hasn’t even made it to manufacturing yet. Tech markets currently getting btfo

I work for a company that makes a reasonably complicated piece of medical equipment (Japan)
The only bloodlines that fit that equipment come from China. That factory has had a CE mark and FDA audit.
Obv we could build a factory in another country - but the time to have regulators fly out and audit the new bloodline factory (months) means we can't send product to most first world countries which employ a regulatory and compliance matrix. Full stop.
Shit is getting fucked up dude and we're only a month in

>>17306147
Doubt.

>be kike
>hoard knowledge and tech
>only release kosher tech to keep control
>redistribute some tech to developing world
>technological communism
China seems to have been be prepped for something bigger.

>>17305507
>Antibiotics

Fug, on the bright side miners won't be updating asics anytime soon so they won't be forced to dump most of their supply giving us a double halving in may.

>>17304182

>>17305054
It has $23 of daily volume you shill lmao

>>17307484
kek

>>17307484

>>17307484
>>17307662
>wojak posters

>>17307680
>you

>>17307662
>>17307484
you can tell which of these was made by a leftist redditor

>>17304182
Based. Lets eradicate chinks for their crypto scams and animal torture.

>>17307844
This but replace chinks with mutts

>>17307876
> nazi propaganda poster
> against KKK
???

>>17304741
>Apple
Don't they have hundreds of billions in reserve? I'm sure I remember something like this being reported because it was considered by most to be retarded.

>>17307903
Small brain

also who gains if China collapses? I understand that everyone takes a hit but proportionally who gains the most? USA? Europe? Competing asian countries?

>>17304182
Fuck Apple Greedy Kikes
Fuck Facebook
Fuck Google
Fuck Silicon Valley
Fuck California

>>17304277
Except they literally already have...

>>17304182
Hahaha I'm Aussie so I'll be unnaffected

FUCK YOU BURGERS

>>17304326
Bitcoin will crash its a shitcoin
Silver is one of the most Manipulated assets, it'll explode soon.
you could stamp silver with palladium and no one could tell the difference.

XRP will be the biggest Winner.

>>17304182
>he thinks chinese wageslaves won't have to go to work because of a deadly epidemic
kek, oh boy am I laffin they're gonna work with full on hazmat suits if they have to

>>17304709
The corona virus was released in order to fuck china up the ass, and return the manufacturing and wealth they stole from the US.

the chinese thought they would infect the rest of the world by sending delegates to shake hands to elites in order to manipulate them by dangling a vaccine but they didn't realize the intelligence community were watching them like a hawk and switched labels on vials that said Caucasian with Asian.

Manufacturing will Return but will be based in Mexico in North America, Canada will be used for lumber production and minerals, US will provide Business, tech, Energy and Other resources. North America will forever be Self sufficient.

There will be a new currency based on XRP.

>>17304533
I think that girl on the far right might like the guy with the camera just a little.

>>17305705
Learn how global trade works you fucking retard, if china collapses it takes the world with it.

the US military is recreating heavy metal production in the US as a result of China having a near monopoly.
in the future North korea will open its borders, they will be the factory for south korea and north korea will be business. north korea has some of the largest untapped heavy metal in the world.

>>17305926
Trump encourages the fed to pump the market, the plan is to get rid of the FED and the IRS.

>>17304690
>>17304690

Shut up Xi

>>17304511
my chinese suppliers have already been closed for over 40 days. good thing I have some in Taiwan.

$nCoV, the worlds first proof of death blockchain.

>>17305198
You lower the rent retard, who are the jews that make you pay rent anyway?

>>17305890
*Central Banks step in*
Ssshh, nothing personal kid

>>17308331
Silver was brought up a lot this weekend yet I never once saw anybody mention the DOJ indictments of JPMorgan silver traders for manipulation. It's not a conspiracy theory; silver is basically JPMorgan's fuckpet at this point.

>what are bailouts

>>17308308
The Aussie economy has avoided 30 ish years of recession literally because of China. I wouldn't celebrate too early.

Lol people actually believe China collapsing isn't doomsday for us too. Say goodbye to all the rare Earth minerals. Need to get your car fixed so you can drive to work? Oops sorry, that part was made in China. You're fucked, guess you'll have to take the bus if that hasn't been left on the side of the road when whatever chemical fluid the thing needed was manufactured in China. All that steel needed to maintain our infrastructure? Buh bye! Bye! Good luck! Medications? Oops, those were either manufactured with synthetic chemicals from China or flatout manufactured in China themselves. All that plastic packaging that your food gets shipped in? The refrigerant for air conditioners and walk in freezers? Oops, that's gone to. I'm not even defending China btw. This is the exact problem that comes about when you sell out to globalism.

>>17308331
>XRP will be the biggest Winner.

You seriously have to be black to believe this shit

>>17310469
We were able to manufacture all that without them. We still can without them.

>>17310508
With what equipment? Have you seen all the US factories lately? Do you realize what a massive undertaking it would be to reindustrialize at this point? Nobody in the country has any skills in manufacturing anymore. It would be decades before the workforce is capable of doing these jobs in any real numbers. It will take years of resources and stability to get our equipment back up to spec to produce anything of value. And of course, when there's an economic crisis, there will be too much instability for that to be possible. The years leading up to the industrial revolution were a gradual climb. This will not happen in your lifetime.

>>17310417
What I mean to say anon is that our economy is shit regardless.

>>17305227
I didnt reply to you did I friendo

Well, the market is now open after the 3 day weekend, and the financial channels are all pushing the line "no, this isn't a problem, it will only effect ONE QUARTER".... which means they know that they're going to be fucked by this.

>>17311530
This

>>17305890
You got it man. Our economy is extremely fragile. It's a house of cards.
Also take for example consumer confidence. People only need to worry that the economy is going to tank and then they stop spending and pull out stocks, tanking the economy.
I worked with a guy in 2008, absolute numbskull, who heard the econony was bad and so he stopped spending any money whatsoever. This is a guy who held no stocks and an extremely stable job wuth no chance of being laid off. His finances would not be affected by the economic turmoil whatsoever but his mentality was "economy bad = don't buy anything". I think he even quit smoking to save money.

CNBC is now pushing the line "write off quarter"... that things will be fucked, but don't worry because the Fed will pump money in to save us all.

>>17304182
>>And no... crypto won't save you

god damnit.

>>17312348
TSLA target adjusted to 1200 by MS. Don’t worry bro they got this.