/biz/ - Business & Finance

First for collapse is immanent

>>16983377
dub dub of truth

>>16983371
>Do you think Wardawg Buffeh is scared
he's way over 50, so I bet he's headed to his bunker
scared has nothing to do with it

>immanent

>Anon, you haven't even touched your soup. You ARE going to eat it, right? You don't want to look like a bigot, right?

Everything should be free:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3nhg9B-aXk

>>16983402
What, did you think it was imminent? Go long faggot

post yfw the surprise bear market rapes the world

go short

How can I tell how much it is possible to lose on a call option?

>>16983487
buying the option: you can lose the premium (100% of what you spent)
selling the option naked: theoretically infinite, but realistically bounded depending on the security.
selling the option covered: you lose your gains, which hurts most of all

>>16983440
oh, did you actually mean to use the word immanent
as in saying it's inherent in life
i guess that makes sense

APPEN WILL GROW LARGER

>>16983412
Based bat, he knows what he's doing

>>16983505
I don't understand how it's infite, let's say I bought a call on a 50 cent stock, ignoring the premium, what's the largest amount I could lose

>>16983526
depends how much you spent on the calls
if the stock costs 50c, the calls are going to be pretty cheap. If you buy 100 contracts and the total premium (cost) is $20, and the stock is below the strike price when the option expires, you will have lost $20.

>>16983487

Take what you bought the call for. Then multiple that by 100%. That's how much you will lose.

>Overcrowded cesspool acceptable to the world even if it was the setup for a plague but when they started eating bats, that’s when the world said this is enough wipe them out and created a next level plague in a form of a virus never seen before

975 New Coronavirus Pneumonia Cases Diagnosed in China, 56 Deaths

Beijing News Express According to the official website of the National Health and Medical Commission, at 04:00 on January 25, 2020, 29 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) reported 688 new confirmed cases, 87 new severe cases, and new deaths. In 15 cases (13 in Hubei Province, 1 in Shanghai, and 1 in Henan Province), 11 new cases were cured and discharged, and 1309 were suspected cases.


As of 24:00 on January 25th, the National Health Commission had received a total of 1975 confirmed cases in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and 324 severe cases. A total of 56 deaths and 49 discharged patients were cured. There are 2684 suspected cases.


At present, 23,431 close contacts have been tracked, 325 medical observations have been lifted on the same day, and 21,556 people are currently undergoing medical observations.

A total of 5 confirmed cases were reported in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 5 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 3 in Taiwan.

In addition, a total of confirmed cases were reported abroad: 4 in Thailand, 2 in Japan, 2 in South Korea, 2 in the United States, 2 in Vietnam, 3 in Singapore, 3 in Malaysia, 1 in Nepal, 3 in France, and 1 in Australia.

1950 confirmed cases
56 deaths

7 confirmed in thailand

EXPONENTIAL BEAR GANG

It's gonna be fine
Everyone will forget about this virus by next week

1975 confirmed cases
>54 deaths

1975 confirmed cases
>54 deaths

1975 confirmed cases
>54 deaths

1975 confirmed cases
>54 deaths

china realizing they can't contain it

will other countries capitulate?

Which will close international air travel in time?

Chinese fucked us all with this plague. They could of stated real numbers and admitted it was out of control. Then shit down borders, flights and asked the world for help.

>>16983627
Unironically the U.S. will likely close air travel from Asia if this continues into next week.

>>16983629
Yeah but you have to have understand how monkey ape society is

The amount of complacency is mind boggling versus the downside risk of a pandemic flu like episode. This prolly wont be contained except by a black swan cure / secret inoculation thing a gov brings out.

Basically 2007-2008 world recession here we come probably

>>16983371
2,009 Global cases, asian cheapies here we come!

>>16983647
They'd have had to do it last week though. Time is running out fast.

I don't think any country has the guts honestly. Everyone is being childish and stupid. Especially the markets to the risk.

>>16983647
it's way too late
we needed to close air travel last week

>>16983599
>>16983615
The worst part is the fact that I will head to Bangkok in April like I do every year. I hope they manage to contain/stop this shit because I'm not leaving my safe space in Scandinavia to get infected by some chink virus. Thailand is a very popular destination for chinese tourists aswell so.. that's a big nope from me. So let's see

>>16983674
yep

it's looking like it's ogre, even more liquidation time monday

>>16983680
Thailand is my short target.

how to invest in corpse disposal

How can we profit off 5G

>>16983371
>Do you think Wardawg Buffeh is scared shitless, he has seen stonk market crashes like you wouldn't believe zoomer edition

>lives off 20k a year
>knows every corner of the market
>has billions of dollars in cash

im sure he'll be fine

Pandemic plague rate of infectious spread is parabolic. Coronavirus is mass spreading as we speak. Today is the best we are going to see things in awhile, sadly. It’s too late to contain it.

>>16983720
Why contain it?

APT gang anyone???

reminder that you are all retards and freaking out over nothing

airplanes
international travel
free travel
borderless world
it's all coming crashing down

complacency

the bodies gonna pile up in the streets like old times

>>16983728
So the virus doesn’t mass spread across the globe raising the probability higher, killing more people. Since that’s a higher chance a weak immune system will be infected... And so everything doesn't fall into place, exactly how the Dark Sith Overlord planned

china plague is way more wide spread than they want to admit. thanks to air travel, well your number of infected just keeps climbing. Some dude gets sick with it, he doesn't think much of it so he goes on with his daily shit, infecting anyone he coughs on. So yeah.. good luck. By the time they get a cure found the virus will burn itself out (most do) but before then the number of dead/sick will keep climbing.

>>16983771
50/50 it was planned and done to save pensions worldwide

>>16983775
Same exact umbrella O.O

>>16983371
Ironically, buffet doesn’t believe in paying dividends.

>>16983773
exactly whats the probability of good news in the next 30 days on this?
1%?

you are all retarded for freaking out over a virus documented to have an extremely low mortality rate

>>16983805
This. Its less deadly than the annual Flu.

>>16983808
if you aren't an old person, you most likely aren't going to die even if you do get it
most of the people who have died have been old people with pre-existing health issues

>>16983805
>>16983808
>>16983814
>Each year in the United States, there are millions of cases of the common cold. Adults have an average of 2-3 colds per year, and children have even more.
>Half of cases go away in 10 days and 90% in 15 days.

Meanwhile the coronavirus has:
>56 dead
>39 recovered
So about a 41% chance of recovery.

From 2003:
>The World Health Organization (WHO) today estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%, significantly higher than previous estimates. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%.
And this is worse than that.
So no it's not "less deadly than the annual flu".
absolute brainlet

>>16983805
40% world infection

what % of mortality rate matters?
what % of critically ill?

Wuhan is telling critically ill to stay at home already and it's not even 1/10th of how bad it'll get

this is going to break down society for a while..

you are talking shutting down china for months.

complacency

seriously, imagine america and 90% of critically ill boomers are at home with no medical attention and what will happen societal.

>>16983845
>56 dead
>39 recovered

so you're saying 95 people have gotten the virus, and 56 have died
i have no idea where you got those numbers, but they're completely inaccurate
and this isn't SARS, nor is it more lethal than SARS
the estimates I've seen about its mortality rate are around 3%, and the vast majority of the people who have died are 60 years old or higher

>>16983864
>>16983858
I know it's fun to pretend that this is going to be some doomsday pandemic, but that simply isn't the reality of the situation

>>16983744
>>16983805
I agree, but still chill Pends. We have GALT day to look forward to in Feb. We're days away.

China’s government is paralyzed from this coronavirus plague and it’s only the beginning.

>>16983805
>tripfag
>retarded
wow, who would have thought?

>>16983872
sure, it may be an epidemic that could kill some boomers if it spreads to the US
but nowhere near the scale of an actual pandemic like smallpox, the plague, or the spanish flu

>>16983876
If you designed a doomsday virus, this would be it. This isn't larping or imaginary. we are a few 2x jumps from this being the reality.

death numbers don't matter. even if you live through it, you still can't work, you're still a burden on hospital infrastructure, you still may have permanent damage to your lungs.
we won't get a proper estimate of fatality rates for some time now.
infection numbers do matter. Do you have as many infected as hospital beds? twice as many? 10x or more? Do you have uninfected doctors or transport workers or energy workers left?

the normies will panic over this one, it's just a question of when. only a very small number of people are taking steps now to be adequately prepared.
Even if the virus part of this panic doesn't kill that many people, you should be buying food and bottled water now just to be safe. It's a very efficient hedge; if nothing happens, you just have some extra food and bottled water. If grocery stores get cleaned out and you can't buy it, you'll be glad that you have it.

>>16983876
there is not point about talking about fatality numbers until at least a week from now, probably two weeks before we get an accurate picture. infection rates and quarantine measures are what matters at this stage of a pandemic.

>>16983892
>If you designed a doomsday virus, this would be it

explain to me why that is when it causes a fever and mild respiratory symptoms in most people and the overwhelming majority of people who have died have been over 60

>virus causes a cough, shortness of breath, and a fever
>AHHHHH IT'S A DOOMSDAY VIRUS AND IT'S GOING TO KILL US ALL AND DESTROY THE WORLD

>>16983845
>this is the quantitative reasoning skills of people telling you what to do with your money

cgc calls biiiii

>>16983876
About 2000 are infected. 56 dead. 39 recovered. So about a 41% chance of recovery right now. However, these digits are likely coming from hospitals - and given the fact that hospital services are overrun in China right now - these figures are likely much worse. And the two week incubation period means that likely the quarantine and airport measures are much less effective than hoped.

>>16983905
you can't look at this type of thing like it's just numbers on a spreadsheet while ignoring the human (psychological) elements.
the death numbers are absolutely inconclusive at this point. The numbers that we can trust the most are the international infected counts.
we can talk about death statistics once it runs its course. until then, that part is all conjecture. if entire cities are being quarantined, you start to be more concerned about unrest, looting, and starvation getting added into the mix.

>>16983925
>and this isn't SARS, nor is it more lethal than SARS
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947.3?report=genbank
go and BLAST this and then tell me what you think

>>16983937
ffs meant to be for >>16983876

>>16983937
it's similar to SARS in the sense that it's also a coronavirus, but it isn't an exact copy of SARS

>>16983905
Because the most important variable is spreading. High death rate high mortality usually doesn't spread, or is so alarming the population freaks out and it can't reach numbers.

Something like 50% death rate is alarming, the alarms goes off.

3% death rate starts getting alarming when it's unstoppable.

>>16983805
>>16983808
>>16983814
even the MSM says you're dumbfucks

Imagine the breeding grounds this plague came from. There’s no shortage of infected and the Chinese travel this time of the year. We’re still about 2 weeks out to find out who all is infected from this weekend let alone the death toll. Then, on top of it all if the people aren’t close quarters and the country gets spread out with people being more secluded, the virus can live outside the body on objects. Making sure more of us than not gets infected.

>>16983720
Audibly kek'd

>>16983961
OH NO IT'S 1% MORE DEADLY THAN THE FLU
TIME TO GO BUY CANNED FOOD AND SELL ALL MY STOCKS

see humanity has ignored the flu

complacency

we haven't cracked down on hygene or spread, we just kinda hope it stays non-fatal each mutation

There's no capability in modern humanity to stop something that spread as easily as the flu, that is public. The ONLY prevention method is a combination of diagnosis and isolation. This only works during the earliest moments of pandemics. Every 6 days it gets 2-80x harder to contain depending on spread rate.

China is probably at the point it's unstoppable.

>>16983953
>but it isn't an exact copy of SARS
Exactly, it's much worse.
I really hope that it isn't a 60%+ mortality rate that's the way it's looking right now.

>>16983978
that is correct, yes
you don't need to be scared or panic. There will be enough fear and panic from the average people about a week from now. It's not about panic, it's about taking some easy steps to be prepared while this whole situation transpires.
If nothing comes of it, then great! wonderful! but if things get bad, you won't have time to prepare once there is nothing left to buy at the grocery store

>Roads to/from the city closed
>All private vehicles are banned from city center
>Marriages, birthdays, and other private gatherings are banned
>All internet cafes and entertainment venues closed
>Funerals cannot exceed 3 days, close family only, 20 people max

Shit is absolutely fucked

>>16983987
oh yeah all the critical cases become deaths once the limited medical resources are taken up

>>16983978
LOL that goalpost damage control after you get proven wrong

Movie night's feature will be either Outbreak (1995) or Resident Evil (2002) kekkies, haven't d-cided yet
40 minutes!

>>16984012
show me the post where I said that wasn't the case

>>16984017
WEW MOVIE NIGHT IS GOING TO BE LIT

>>16984017
Contagion is the most realistic of all pandemic movies

>>16984017
Contagion is the most realistic of all pandemic movies

>>16983978
alright I'll spell it out for you you dribbling retard.
We are relying on the CCP for information regarding this disease, they aren't exactly known for being honest, especially on issues of national security.
So we have to assume that it's worse than what they're telling us. You'd have to be a fool to take the chinese government at face value, there are more deaths than they're reporting. You don't quarantine 55 million people for nothing.
And even if you do take what they say as true, it's STILL bad. The 3% mortality figure comes from dividing the REPORTED number dead by the REPORTED number INFECTED, while it's still early stages and most people haven't had enough time to either die or recover. In fact less people have fully recovered than have died. That's not a good sign.
There's a big difference between a hindsight estimate of mortality rates after the disease has passed, as in the flu numbers, and computing it in real time, especially this early on. This should be obvious.
As it stands now the dynamics of the disease are particularly bad, R0 is fairly high for a disease of this kind, it is postulated to be higher than SARS. It has a very long incubation time, and asymptomatic patients can be contagious. This is a really bad combination.

Is FCEL coming back?

The #1 killer in China this year probably won't be the superflu, it will probably be famine (starvation + looting/unrest over lack of food).
The main job of the Chinese government now is the logistics of feeding hundreds of millions of mouths while their societal structure and order are in an extremely limited state.
If the Corona does manage to kill lots of people very quickly, it will mean fewer mouths to feed, so possibly fewer deaths in the long run.

>>16984067
enjoy your LARP session while this is still having its 15 minutes of media attention
at worst this is a repeat of SARS

so what is this going to do to the markets? I can't remember how SARS impacted the markets.

>>16984089
>fcel matter
>coming back
Bruh

>>16983742

What happens to APT when GFC2 hits? They will probably breach their debt covenants

>>16984152
we're headed down until positive news starts to come out.
it might be soon, or it might be a while. Once a string of multiple positive headlines comes out, it will be safe to buy back in. Until then, uncertainty will grow.
If you buy anything, buy 3M and consumer defensive

>>16984162
thanks m8.

I really underestimated this new virus. I thought it would just be some flu panic but with all the info from China coming it it will wreck pure havoc on this country. Most of China is medieval tier in sanitation and their wet markets are less hygenic than a concentration camp. The Chinese gouvernment is panicking so much the usual cries for "The Japanese/Americans did it!" are not working and even the backup "Local gouvernment of X was bad" falls on deaf ears when its literally everywhere by now.
CNY will fuck up shit beyond believe. Its like a Tom Clancy Novel where they pick the busiest time of the year to spread a disease.

I bought some Yang and puts, but as soon as monday comes I will buy a lot more.
>>16984152
Chinese stocks get wrecked, Shanghai does not even need to open for that to happen.
American market will see a drop over the next week but nothing to major. AMD, Apple, etc. have earnings as well and should bull a bit.

SARS barely did anything btw. At least long term. Aids was scarier
>>16984162
Bought into APT when they dipped. So far like 20%? up on that.
Maybe I should sell and then buy the dip again. Lake with the same pattern. 3M sounds good as well though, but they produce so much its not affecting them as much really.

>>16984152
The retards ITT will tell you that the market jumped during SARS. What they fail to remember is that SARS happened right as USA was recovering from the 2000-01 dotcom bust and the new wars with sandpeople like Iraq/Afg propelled everything with wartime defense spending. Today is the opposite, we're coming up on the precipice of the largest market blow-off top (especially corporate debt bonds) in human history. Nothing was fixed in 2008, GFC can was just kicked down the road.

China was also in a completely different situation at the time, still well within the "emerging market" phase. Today China is in just as precarious of a position that USA is, with massive amounts of debt and an economy built on consumer spending and confidence. China has also eclipsed USA as the #1 most important trading nation in the world

>>16984132
This is a poor analogy
The viral characteristics are in the same ballpark, sure
But there were more people traveling in and out of Wuhan in the early spread of this virus (first month) than we can even begin to count. Because of that, it has spread much faster, again, to a level that we can't completely estimate right now. SARS didn't shut down entire provinces within a week or two of media recognition.

Again, you are autistically focusing on things like viral parameters and not paying attention to some of the important realities of the situation

>>16984162
Or AAPL/TSLA/MSFT/V etc... post good earnings and markets stop caring. At least that’s what I’m hoping

>>16984195
>Most of China is medieval tier in sanitation
from a technological standpoint, they are far behind the Romans and medieval Europe in sanitation. It's not really an apples-to-apples comparison, that is just an outcome of their population density and cultural norms. Very hard to have a sanitary population of 10M people in a single city, all taking buses and trains and airplanes... Medieval Europe and Romans didn't have the same challenges.

>>16984212
Future uncertainty doesn't just disappear because last quarter's earnings were good. That is not a realistic viewpoint and I want to strongly urge you to re-consider it. The only thing that matters now is how certain or uncertain people feel about the future. Earnings season is sort of "cancelled", meaning past performance is massively less important than it was pre-CoronaVirus

>>16984237
>technological
technological isn't really the correct word for what I meant.... Technologically they are ahead, I meant "functionally" they are behind, they are behind based on outcomes and realities (efficacy).
they are enormously behind in any per-capita metrics (clean air per capita (m^3), fresh water per capita(liters)).

Movie night movie night! Get in here!

>>16984203
>we're coming up on the precipice of the largest market blow-off top (especially corporate debt bonds) in human history
lol get squeezed Bobo

Whats a great airliner to buy put options for?

>>16984212
Have you even been paying attention AT ALL to the last earnings season and the beginning of this one? In the past year investors are much more concerned with forward guidance than anything else. That's why companies will still tank after "beating" their rigged lowball "analyst estimates". Plus IPOs/unicorns are no longer viable for speculative jumps. Everything is hinging on FORWARD P/E ratios, nobody cares what earnings were in the past quarter because everyone knows we're in an earnings near-recession.

Not sleeping sunday

Fuck

>responding to the galt memer

>>16984237
Chinese people will also literally eat bat eyes and snail slime for big penis or better eyes. And this is supported by the gouvernment, as ancient Chinese culture/medicine (which is the best in the world according to them) can never be wrong. Nobody uses soap, spitting is seen as healthy, people buy chicken blood of someone that just handled a pig head two seconds before.
This all happened in Europe, but with 5k people in a big town.

Its this weird mix of modern problems with solutions the west has abandoned around 1750. Not trying to be /pol/tarded, but you start to wonder how these people are not wiped out every 50 years by some disease.

>>16984277
Chinese Eastern, Chinese Southern, Air China, China This, China That, China Airways with uhhh... do you have some large fries?, Wuhan Airlines

>>16984287
Offically 56 dead now. Offically.
This is China. The gouvernment actively pulls down these numbers and a lot of elders just get diagnosed with "old age'.
I think the numbers are way way higher by now. 200+? More?

>>16984319
Didnt want to reply to anyone
Really tired anyways, have a good night

DDD - 3D systems - 3D printing is the future

In the midst of our plague-filled market there is one sector overlooked. No workers traveling to funerals or calling in sick or scared. No productivity lost due to illness.

It's the modern day slave machine just making your shit without bitching about socialism or unions.

Think about 3D printing and think DDD.
We all want automated workers in the 20s

>>16984379
I never thought of that but if Asia is facing societal collapse in the short term due to massive pandemic it makes sense automated manufacturing would be a good play... wonder if the market will see the opportunity in 3D automated - minimal human- manufacturing.

Social media reports say Shantou, a city of 5 million in the southern coast of China will go on full lockdown. No one allowed out, no one allowed in. Two confirmed cases there. First city outside of Hubei province to lockdown.

Media reports that Tianjin (population 15 million) joins Beijing in banning long distance bus service. Also unconfirmed reports Tianjin issues emergency recall order for government emergency service personnel on Chinese New Year holiday to return to work.

INO
INO
INO

>>16984384
I think the WHO is correct in that assessment. Calling it an international crisis with the number of cases currently identified is premature.

>>16984473
yeah it would distract everyone from the impeachment of Donald J. Trump

>>16984471
are you having a stroke? do you want me to call an ambulance?

>>16984496
stay poor.

>>16984473
>>16984384
they aren't going to declare a crisis until all the WHO/CDC employees and their families stock up on supplies and get out of the cities
they'll declare after that. 24 hours

>>16983526
It's only infinite if you sell a call naked, and the stock moons. Buying a call strictly limits the downside.

Selling a call naked--say your 50 cent sock becomes more than $20 because it was a biotech that passed P3, is first in class, all potential competition melted away, and patent trolls couldn't defend their IP violations nearly as well as they defended their V cards. Well, in that scenario, 100 contracts with a $1 strike would suddenly cost you $1,900.

But! Your biotech is the belle of the ball and Big Daddy Pharma needs that sweet market exclusivity to perk up their flaccid pipe. Pipeline. Anyway, the stock you sold naked suddenly pops to $65 per share. Those same contracts are now going to cost you $6,400.

But! Your biotech's drug, which is totally a drug with, like, a zillion valid and defensible patents, is also being studied for other indications like cancer or small generic balls. BAM stock goes to $101 per share, and those contracts now cost you a walloping ten ariana grande's.

In short (lol), selling naked calls has a defined upside, but unlimited (and unknowable) downside.

>>16984591
Thanks for the info

>When there’s this much hate for a stock that they tripfag a trolling name of the shill.

Looks like it’s time to invest in LCI

>Cremation centers are now overwhelmed
Yep this is a completely normal flu guys, move along

Who cares about a bunch of dead chinks? Particularly a bunch of old dead chinks?
Why are you people over reacting? You are acting like you WANT a worldwide pandemic. The fact of the matter is that this is really no worse than SARS, and that civilized nations are not going to suffer greatly from this virus.

Everyone calm the fuck down. This shit is starting to get ridiculous. You retards probably thought ww3 was going to start a few weeks ago.

Short VXX = infinite money

>>16984671
>You are acting like you WANT a worldwide pandemic
Remember when the Iran thing was supposed to be WWIII?

>>16984685
Oh wait, you said that already.

Didn't China adjust the GDP of entire provinces by up to 30% just a few years ago?

>>16983371
Previous thread?

>>16984671
You're right. I'm so sleepy.. time to just go to bed and watch CNN 24/7 coverage of trump tomorrow instead

>>16984132
>sars
>nothing
>>16984683
I think that trade is over this week. Bottom fell out on the gex.
>>16984671
They often do, at least partially. People on the bottom rungs of society fantasize about it being disrupted by chaos.
>>16984743
Half of your posts are about trump lmao
We’ve told you again and again, the market has priced in his exoneration.
You don’t need to keep reminding us that nothing will happen. Everyone knows.

I wonder if pence is pissed that Mitch won’t let it happen. Pres pence has a nice ring to it.

>>16984203
The retards in this thread haven’t even looked at the charts of how fast the market recovered from the sars selloff. You’re right that it’s not the only factor worth paying attention to.

How’s corporate debt look stacked up against revenue and cash supply?

I got 5 friends to sign up for the robin hood today AND ran 3 miles. What did you do today?

>>16984887
had thoughts of suicide all day

>>16984902
So did he >>16984887

>>16984887
I did all of my dishes, about to prep cook for the week ahead

Is the options about here who talks a lot about IV?

I’m thinking a strangle on healthcare could be a good play into Iowa. Sanders wins, gets hit. Biden wins, surges.

>>16983864
Can't wait to buy all the dips

>>16984902
Today was a good day actually, finally quit smoking (15 days now) and have been feeling better in terms of depression!

>>16984907
Nice! I always used to let my dishes like up untill there was about an hour's worth. Just recently have a started to do then while my coffee brews first thing in the morning!

>>16984927
>Is the options about here who talks a lot about IV?
what

also the DNC is trying to wack Sanders out of the race right now
Obama was supposed to disavow Sanders this weekend or coming week, but I think that depends on the (extremely turbulent) news cycle that we are going through right now. It might get called off.

>>16983614
yep

How many monies dose Jerome need to print next week?

>>16984959
normal amount
if there is a big die-off, the fed will actually be printing less money to achieve the same prices because it's a deflationary event. but we won't hit those numbers for months, at least

China made the wrong decisions. A lesson in power. Reminder what ants are.

>>16984945
I want to figure out how not to get fucked by IV crush if I use options to put a straddle/strangle on a healthcare company or etf.

The establishment also didn’t want trump.

From an article about Bernie’s age:
>On Inauguration Day, he will be 79, which makes him 40 years older than the oldest of millennials, his most devoted demo. That also makes him the oldest serious contender, but many of his opponents aren’t spring chickens, either: Joe Biden will be 78, Donald Trump 74, and Elizabeth Warren 71.
These people are so old. I have nothing against being old, but damn.

>>16984984
But they want inflation. They should be printing more money into a deflationary event?

>>16985019
The secret to IV is writing options. But I'm too spooked/lazy about obligations to use a spread when I know it will work in the long run

>>16985019
wait I meant an inflationary event in terms of dollars right... hold up I always get it mixed up
fewer people means more resources for everyone, but also less consumption.
but in terms of total cash flows throughout the system, less dollars are required. if the fed keeps the rate of printing money steady after a ~10% die-off of adults, that is inflationary compared to the case where those people don't die

if it's a nothingburger and no one dies, but people panic and buy consumer goods, that is deflationary (I think)
basically IMO the fed shouldn't be taking an unnecessary actions yet, they need to be making detailed plans, but don't act until things happen. Keep it steady.

I also agree that it's absurd that our elections is between a bunch of 80 year olds.
Right now IV is higher than it was Mon-Thurs last week, but it could be set to get a whole lot higher over the next two weeks as panic rises and eventually plateaus. If you're trying to just trade healthcare based on election probabilities, I think the China thing is too big of an externality to ignore.

>>16983538
I beg to differ regarding the premium on low-digit stocks. Most of them, on the contrary, tend be relatively expensive. I prefer options on 100+ equities, because I'm never longing calls without the expectation that a nice % move is coming up, so the lower IV makes it easy to profit hundreds of percent on stocks that will move 10 to 50 dollars vs a few bucks. I regularly see what I'd consider mispricing, with nearly ATM strikes on $150 stocks going for as cheap as ATM going for $5 and $20 stocks. Yet, same percent move on the $150 is going to give me 10x the profit.

The high dubs will work, but prefer trips with same IV.

>>16985070
I meant cheap in terms of "how much they cost" not cheap in terms of value. I agree with your statement. I don't often mess with options anymore tho :p
the other poster that I was replying to was the one who brought up the 50c share price

How many YANG fucking shares are we buying on monday? Im all fucking in anons.

Yang Gang

just came to say thank you for the good times /smg/ because corona shows no sing of stopping.

>>16985161
madagascar will survive
madagascar always survives

>>16985161
right now we're rooting for HK and Tibet to pull through
HK nurses and medical workers are demanding that the government shut down transport in/out so that they can try and contain it
we're also hoping that western governments are proactive about shutting down international travel within the next 36 hours or so (maybe still too late)

Rumors spreading that US gov employees being recalled from China. After those people come home they'll probably assess the situation and decide if they should shut down flights from Asia.

>>16985187
I thought it wasn't a rumor, the 1 flight out of Wuhan was an announcement
haven't heard about other provinces

>>16985161
link to map?

>>16985209

The map is real time. The numbers are going up by the hour.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

>>16985187
They will tell the officials the truth

hopefully they shut down all international travel for a month.

>>16985223
Neat. My puts will do well I think. I will honor these dead chinaman who have donated their lives for my gains.

>>16983782
Are dividends a meme? Is letting stock appreciate for the long term and then selling overall better than the passive income of dividends?

Alot of anons are posting growth curves. This shit doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon.

>>16985161
Good God its fucking over
it was fun shitposting with you lads

what % is everyone short/puts?

>>16985238
>Are dividends a meme?

no and they are less volatile during a recession.

>>16985306
1%-2% UVXY calls

>>16985223
Cool! Thanks for the link.

>>16985238
Depends on what your goals are.

>>16983395
No, I didn't, You're mistaking me for the other guy.
Or maybe I did, but it would be quite long time ago.

>>16985056
> If you're trying to just trade healthcare based on election probabilities, I think the China thing is too big of an externality to ignore.
Except look at ABBV BMY MRK, they've been selling off much harder than the rest of the market

>>16985161
If you're not a senior, on immunosuppressants for your crohns, have aids, have other liver heart or lung problems...
Basically if you're young and healthy, there's no reason to think this 2019-nCoV will be fatal for you.

tootsie roll splits the stock yearly instead of raise the dividend. lol thats funny

>>16985345
What are the best goals to have that dividends are a good investment?

>>16983401
>that pic
We cyberpunk now

>>16985044
I’ve been trying and had some successs.

But I’ve now fucked myself over as I didn’t think ViacomCBS would plunge to alltime lows.

Also, really cut off my upside when experimenting. Would have made a fortune if I’d have bought calls like I usually would have. Managed to write puts instead of buying calls on LMT right before the Middle East shit went down.

>>16985424
What?

>>16985462
It's in response to >>16985345. If dividends are good depending on one's goals then what kinds of goals would they be good for?

>>16984832
>bottom fell out on the GEX
Can you explain what that means? I noticed the gex got to historically high levels over the past month or so and broke down after opex, but how did that high floor affect the run-up?

>>16985475
ah, yes. Dividends are used for replacing or supplementing income. Iets say you put 20k in and are averaging 5% yield, thats $1000 annually. you can use that as income, reinvest it to produce more divvys next year, or use it on stuff. 1k neutralizes your cell phone bill, netflix, gym membership, etc etc

Who else should I be shorting besides Carnival Cruise Lines? I think they’ve already made a big enough move where I don’t want to add to my position.
Starbucks? Royal Caribbean?

I can’t bring myself to short or even sell McDonald’s or Disney.

>>16985490
Oh shit you’re right, Friday was options expiration day right? Maybe I should disregard the steep drop in gex then due to repositioning fuckery.

I can’t explain it to you because I don’t really understand it. It would be useful to go back and see what happened to GEX on other opex days.

dumb question here: is there pre-market activity info on the hong kong markets? I can't seem to find it anywhere.

>>16985387
Maybe something to do with the Insys ceo getting sent to prison? Or some news of drug pricing legislation?

Why is everyone freaking out about some stupid asian flu? They don't wash their hands and poop in holes in the ground.

REMINDER

Any of you niggas invested in Moneygram (MGI)?

>SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The ability of the coronavirus to spread is getting stronger and infections could continue to rise, China's National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people globally infected and 56 in China killed by the disease.

She’s growing stronger...

>Ma said the incubation period for the coronavirus can range from one to 14 days, and that the virus is infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.
Wewww...

>>16985639
Without any context this chart isn’t very helpful...
What’s the theory behind this? That when options traders by exceptionally high amounts of puts, the market drops in the short term?

Impressive that it didn’t have any predictive power for the steep and sustained decline in 2007-2009

>>16984041
Thanks Robert!

>>16985663
>A company based around money laundering and removing currency from the domestic cashflow.
No thank you

>>16984067
This guy is correct. R0 is bad. 1st hand reports out of china are bad. People who came from china weeks ago are now being diagnosed. The poster child of recovery they said needed Fucking ECMO (not encouraging at all).

>>16984132
Theres a good chance you gonna eat those words retard

>>16985497
Okay, I thought so. So why are there people who poo-poo dividends?

>>16985751
Passive income is cool as fuck

>>16985497
syphons money away from growing the company to pay its shareholders. In many cases companies have taken debt just to continue paying dividends. It weakens the company for the sake of the immediate gratification of the shareholder. Typically stable, low growth, companies are best for this, because they don't care about growth. they're just there to continue turning the same profit year over year and rewarding shareholders. Buffet would rather reinvested earnings into strengthening the company that he owns. Choice is yours fren

>>16986001
>>16985751
damnit.

>>16985223
thread theme

https://soundcloud.com/user-444579259/the-expanse-whispers-of-eros

>>16983615

According to the CCP which is even less honest than CNN

Remember when Mao accidentally killed 50 million people and told no one?

>>16983629

Mandate of heaven, chinese people believe when a major disaster hits it is time to change who is in charge

>>16983771

It mostly kills minorities and the elderly

So how about $YANG? Is it still viable? I think things will continue at least in the near term. Of course reports might be overblown but that will take time to occur and until then even minor news will matter

>>16983876

Shows what you know. This is a form of SARS and it is far more contageous than the last version.

>>16983953

Sars stands for Severe acute respiratory syndrome. It's not the name of a virus.

>>16986001
Ah, okay. I can understand that.

>After virus scare, markets look to Fed rate policy to keep stock rally going

WE'RE FUCKED
POWELL IS NOT GOING TO CUT YET
HE NEEDS TO SEE THE DATA WORSEN
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>16983781
>CORONA <-> RACOON
Pretty trippy... if you ignore that raccoon has two c's
Still cool

>>16986044
That's a pretty big move on the week...
I think there might be more juice in YANG or CHAD, but we're not exactly early.

>>16986059
>>16986073
coronavirus is a family of virus that includes this new one, as well as SARS and MERS.

>>16985306
Short nothing. Long GLD calls, and AMZN for earnings, which will stomp all over any and all virus shit to send the whole market to new highs by Friday

Who else /calmheadedboomer/ ready to put some more money in SPY like usual?

Long on Alibaba

>>16986312
I’d wait

>>16986315
150 too low? I agree it has further to dip but I don't want to miss the boat

>>16985497
1k dividends per year from only a 20k investment?
lel, please share your secrets

>>16986337
I mean I wouldn’t buy on monday if you’re looking to profit from the dip. But it’s a good long term hold anyway so you can really buy whenever. I just think that it will continue to dip throughout this week.

>>16986400
Buy a stock that gives out 5% of it's price -_-

>>16983629
how dare the dying chink droves cause my stonks to dip

>>16986434
got examples? now i'm being serious

I also tend to believe that the next decade there will be a bio-pharma speculation bubble but dont' know which stocks to pick to get bitcoin level gains

>>16986447
Are you too retarded to use Google? Serious question.

Futures predictions?

Is Monday going to be red due to virus hysteria?

>>16986631
>>16986631
we still have like 11 hours until futures open
if there is some good news headline we could get a green open
otherwise, red is most likely

>>16986569
fuck you. if i wanted to google alone i wouldnt be posting on forums.

>My surgical mask order get cancelled by Amazon
>Now almost all surgical mask option on Amazon are not available anymore other than suspicious unbranded Chinese products
Where can I get them now

>>16986631
$VIX just broke descending triangle

>>16986676
should have bought 24 hours ago
same goes for food & water, gloves, etc
if you wait to buy you might not be able to

>>16986692
I have brought them a few days ago but the order was cancelled last night, probably because they think the price I buy them were too low and it's better to axe the order and resell them elaewhere at a higher price

>>16986706
ah, that's too bad
I put in an order ~30 hours ago for my newest respirator, and it arrived ~12 hours ago at my doorstep.
that's just the way the world works sometimes. If you still want the masks, you can try and find some locally in stores

>>16986676
>>16986692
why are you buying this stuff? Serious question

>>16986739
I've got some insulation and painting work to take care of, and I care about my lungs

Should i dump my BABA bags?
t. getting concerned

>>16986890
Yes, sell the dip! good goy!

SNEED FEED AND SEED FORMERLY CHUCK'S N FUCK SUCK

>>16986739
Because I don't want to die?
>>16986715
Local stores, if still available, inflated the price to an extent that regular surgical masks cost something like 30USD per box of 50 surgical mask, and many of them have dubious quality in the sense that some have been discovered to be produced by hand in factories without the concept of sanitization. (Some media interviewed some factory owners that made the masks and they responded why would you sanitize something that are used only once?)

Fuck the virus. I bought some Zignsec, Adverty (Spotify level potential in the seamless in-game adverts market) and Star Vault. All Swedish companies. As the chinks die, Europe soldiers on.

>>16986942
you can sanitize them with bleach or lysol, as long as the masks are properly made
30USD/50masks doesn't seem that bad

latest number of coronavirus in china
15k confirmed and 2.5k deaths

>>16983700
This, been thinking about this market for a long time.

>>16986942
>Because I don't want to die?

no, it's because you're a larper and want to pretend this is a much bigger deal than it actually is
if you're young and not immunocompromised, then you have no reason to worry about this, even if it does end up spreading to the US

>>16986971
where did you get those numbers, is that source reliable

>>16987015
He from Cali or NY i guess

>>16987015
he's in hong kong you insensitive nigger

>>16987026
does being in hong kong automatically mean you have access to reliable numbers about an outbreak that's happening in China

>>16987031
no the guy who posted the 15k/2.5k is fake news
the mask guy that you called a larper is in AIDs central

Question. Does margin count towards the 25k to do day trades? I'm not gonna fuck around with that much but I want to be able to exit when I want. I got fucked on my twitter puts friday, could of made 360 bucks but mow if it holds value at open monday I'll only make 260.

>>16987035
just because he's in the same geographic location as the outbreak doesn't mean that the numbers he's posting are automatically completely reliable

>>16987048
the 15k/2.5k numbers are not at all reliable, they are completely made up

the first guy that you replied to in your earlier post is actually in Hong Kong, so when he wants to buy masks he's not larping, it's genuinely for safety. there are confirmed cases in HK right now and significant travel still between the mainland and HK

>>16987058
>>16986942
that's fair, then
I wasn't aware of that, my bad

Another case of China virus here in the U.S. Looks like the market will keep tanking as more and more cases pop up. Everyone's scared that the end times are upon us. But fuck it. If indeed the end times are here go out with a bang! toss your morals away and have fun while you can!.

AAPL will probably perform strongly this week no matter what. If the nasdaq in general tanks, i'm going to take some profits on aapl and buy a lot of tqqq

>>16986942
>Because I don't want to die?
Okay, you fucking pussy.

Best youtube channels for stocks? Thoughts on financial education channel?

>>16986942
you're not going to fucking die of coronavirus, jesus christ

Market is going to shrug off news.

NVAX latest moves are very nice but the only thing driving it is the "china virus" fear. The CEO of NVAX said it'd take months or longer before any cure could be found. So if the china virus burns out before the cure can be found then the stock will tank back to previous levels cause the crisis is over with.

There was a technical analysis stocks simulator game. I can't find it anymore. You had basic things like MAs, rsi, could long, could short, could skip forward, skip stocks.. Pls help. It wasn't the one which was posted last weeks or smth.

>>16986447
MO, XOM, RDS.B, ABBV, SPG, just to name a few (these happen to be good quality companies)

>>16987246
https://gamesfortraders.com/trading-simulator/

>>16987157

Most of them are cons, don’t teach anything (just trade) or do strats thay won’t work with small capital. Whats your capital, style (trading or investment?) and you aren’t interested in books?

>>16987330
not him, but also curious. what about "our rich journey"? heard about them on the news how they managed to retire and later i found their channel

>>16987157
stock goodies

>>16985639
>2010
yeah let me just open some 6 months puts

>>16985274
how do i long this?

>>16987358
is this legit good?

>>16987407
yes https://www.youtube.com/user/StockGoodiesTASchool

>>16987283
>https://gamesfortraders.com/trading-simulator/
Whats your results? Made 211 dollars with 25 winning trades and 15 losing

>>16986971
https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm

This is fake news, sweetie. Anybody can edit the browser side of a website. Stop browsing /pol/ and falling for trash like this

>>16987421
this guy stopped making videos 6 years ago and his site is offline
makes you think

>>16986959
>30USD/50masks doesn't seem that bad
The usual price would be something like 5USD for 50, 30USD/50 is usually enough for N95 masks, but yeah it is not totally unbearable at this point of time.

>>16987157
>fin ed channel
Just watched a video. Maybe its just me, but I don’t think there’s anything to learn there. He mentions brainlet tier reasons for buying or not buying a specific company etc.
>our rich journey
More like a fin advice channel, buying and holding through the biggest bull in a century isn’t anything special. Pic related is tho.

>>16987427
Also holy fuck one gapped down and I lost 966 dollars what the fuck AUDUSD

>>16987440
He made it m8

>>16984638
>that's his buy signal

>>16987157
If you're too lazy to make stock picks, you can copy his portfolio. He usually makes money. It's not trading advise though, he's an investor. He just looks at the balance sheet, and makes a bull case for a stock where in x amount of time a company y will be worth more in the future than it is today. TA and building lofty arguments are two very different ways of going about playing the game. meme magic lay in the later though.

how bad is stock market going to be with the cornavirus spreading? should i dump my stocks first thing monday?

>>16987518
if you're worried, hedge your portfolio with YANG or VXX, there's no reason to sell for a temporary event and suffer short term cap gains tax

>>16987157
Dudes like financial education are not bad persay, but they are the "extremely common and simplified investor"-kind of guys. They invest in very strong companies for the long term and makes videos repeating the same shit about their investments they made years ago. Now.. the only good thing is the fact that guys like financial education re-invests almost every month in order to increase his portfolio, so he can make some good talking points on why he put a extra few grand into for example Apple rather than Microsoft for that particular month.
But the question remains, do you really need to watch these channels to learn how to invest into extremely large and almost too big to fail companies for the next decade or two? No.. everyone knows that they will keep on growing, you don't need to deep dive into their stats to understand that. I think the financial education youtuber even said it himself that youtube is just a way for him to increase his income so he can keep re-investing more and more money to grow his pension and portfolio... that goes for all youtubers and at least his honest about it. Kek'd.

>>16987427
That game is stupid, you can't even see past levels that you can use for reference. How are you suppose to find a short if the stock rockets up and the chart doesn't show further back than a month? That's like trying to short all-time highs which you shouldn't do until a failure happens, but by then the game is almost over

>>16987427
What's wrong with NZD at the time?

>>16987545

>>16987527
>he pays capital gains tax
Lmao

>>16987622
The adults are talking, sweetie

>>16985418
This. The market will probably take a hit monday, and hell maybe this week. But this is no black swan.

>>16983728
LET IT SPILL OVER

>>16987553
I think it's a glitch

>>16987622
you have never made more than 21k in a year so I guess it's not something you have to take seriously

>>16987655
Take a hit? We will tank more than 1% on the open 7 hours from now. The thing is though, China could announce that things are calming down mid-week or whatever and the markets would rally again. So find good spots to long and wait for price to get down there. I find it weird how there were big option trading weeks ago that basically put a bet that the S&P would go to 3k by mid-february or some shit and that would perfectly align with past virus related drops the markets had. For example, Ebola made the S&P drop 10-11% in 2014 and a 10-11% drop on the S&P would land us almost exactly at 3k.
Might have just been luck but.. come on now.

>>16987427
Made $360

>>16987157
>Thoughts on financial education channel?
George gammon

>>16987708
Where did I say anything that would disagree with what you just said. Do you just not like the words I use? WTF is wrong with the autists on this board?

>>16987755
lmao

>>16987755
What? I made a simple reply to your post basically saying that we will most likely take more than a "hit" on Monday before starting rambling about something else. I didn't attack you, call you retarded or anything like that, kek'd.

Some perspective regarding our current Coronavirus induced economic woes: the flu kills 80,000 people a year in the US alone yet the talking heads on TV aren't busy one-upping each other with end of the world scenarios about said flu. Don't fall for bs news hype. Their purpose is to spread anxiety and fear to keep you tuned in. Any informational value is almost purely coincidental. Within a month at most this will be contained. Within 3 months it'll be all but forgotten.
Buy more SOXL

>>16987863
>Not a fan of this argument.
>IMO a fucking viral outbreak might be the only time when pandemonium is necessary.
>This isn't some shit you slide under the rug. >Sure take precaution, but if you've looked at only the confirmed cases the CCP has given us the outcome is abysmal in the near future.
>They seriously thought this wouldn't be a larger issue then it is and are currently weeks behind the containment curve.
>Add on to the fact that they've outright lied about viral transmission up until a few days ago, the market is going to be fucked imo this week.

I want to tap but need suggestions

>>16987259
thanks bro! i was wrong

A female doctor just admitted on national radio (NPR) that she was releasing Chinese from her hospital in Washington despite them having traveled to China and getting sick there over the last few weeks.

Her words are "it could be coronavirus, but they were asymptomatic so..."

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/26/799629276/outbreak-tested-by-measles-washington-state-officials-feel-ready-for-coronavirus

Are any of you anons day traders? Which broker do you use? I was thinking about going into day trading with $3000, so something with little to no commission fee with a realtime chart are a must. I was thinking about using webull, but I'm not sure how it's any different from the other brokers.

>>16988065
Robinhood in US, Revolut in UK

>>16987961
I'm not mad at you, human nature is something few people have learned to control. But cap this. Your fear is what will cost you the most in the long term. And, just for fun, go watch some Paul Tudor Jones videos especially where he talks about the October '87 crash. That's a dude that knows how to think rationally when everybody loses their minds

Just a normal flu, nothing to see here move along

>>16988065
You need $25k to day trade friend

>>16988004
Check out meme50

>>16988157
These are not the type of china webms people usually post.

>>16988252
it cuts right before he slams into a truck in the crossing up ahead

>>16987427
The game is weird, you just kinda wait till the result is positive and then close the position.

>>16987518
I've seen too many red apocalypse days become fantastically green right after open to be frightened anymore

>>16988130
It's not like im selling my 401k here. I'm shorting the market this week. That simple.

>>16987536
And yet the average retail investor averages a pathetic 2.2% or something like that, so it's obviously not so easy. Jeremy (Financial Education) had a 90% return last year, tripling the sp500. I don't always agree with his picks but he undoubtedly makes money. I also like how transparent he is on his portfolio and all his moves, unlike a lot of other youtube "gurus". I think it's a good place to start for a lot of new investors. Like you said though, he's about longer term investing, not swing or day trading meme stocks. No reason you can't partition your wealth and do both though. So many different ways to make money in the market.

>>16988065
TD ameritrade and thinkorswim are good, but with so little day trading isn't going to be viable because of PDT limitations and unsettled cash. Weekly to monthly swing trading is nice. I like swinging Biotech plays, can be very profitable if you are scientifically literate and willing to see risk

>>16988228
I believe you can day trade futures though without the 25k shit

>>16987755
no, you said something vague

Thinking of going balls deep in UVXY, thoughts?

Bros, what ever happened with ONTX?

Kawamoto corp are mooning because of this virus stuff, might keep going as long as the bad news hits

>>16988928
Better bui puts and simpli wait it out.
Not sure when thei will crash but thei sureli will.

>>16988926
It continues taking people's money, as planned

>>16988926
Its a penny stock that is always going to explode tomorrow/next week/next month since 2000BC

>>16988914
I bought puts on SVXY... but it’s less than 2% of my memehood account. So it won’t Provide much protection to my actual worth if there is a major volatility spike this week.

Why the fuck is AMRN still above $20?

Wew lad Cramer humoring the bioweapon theory...

NEW
>>16989220
NEW
>>16989220

HOW THE FUCK IS BERNIE DOING IT

IM FUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKED

Fucking tripshill
Take off your trip when making a new thread.

>>16989285

>>16988042
those are some big bazonkas!

>>16989941
haha imagine if she just like took off her jacket and asked you to feel them haha wouldn't that be weird?