/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16818452
Yeah, it’s done me well. Started off with 10K and got 30K in the end over a period of 10 years

I invest in SPY and QQQ. I don't know if they are the best with the lowest management fees, but they are among the more popular and liquid ETFs out there.

>>16818452
intelligent investor is some blue pilled shit

>>16818540
explain

>>16818540
pls elaborate

>>16818452
>an actual intelligent thread on /biz/
You lost, little doggy?

Honestly it sort of depends on what you're aiming to do, but if your goal is saving for retirement, you can either buy into the target date mutual fund most appropriate for your age, or you can buy both VTSAX and VBTLX (or their ETF equivalents) in a ratio that suits your risk tolerance, say 70/30. The target date funds do have a slightly higher (but still very low) expense ratio, so the two-fund method not only lets you fine-tune your asset classes, but also saves you from some fees in the long run.

Given that it's this late in the credit cycle, I would personally not go all in on VTSAX as I'm sure others might suggest.

Do be sure to read the prospectus (they'll offer it to download whenever you go to purchase any fund/ETF), but don't let the risks they outline scare you away. There's a lot of money to be made by diligent saving and proper investing, which is what it sounds like you're on track for.

>>16818473
This is fucking shit, I want money now,in 2 years in 5 years.i don't want to go to work every day for another asshole. I don't want to have money when I will be fucking 60 , fuck that

>>16818473
>Yeah, it’s done me well. Started off with 10K and got 30K in the end over a period of 10 years
is that inflation adjusted?

>>16818590
>I want money now,in 2 years in 5 years.i don't want to go to work every day for another asshole.
Buy LINK then you mongrel.

>>16818590
Good luck, but you are going nowhere but the welfare line with that attitude. Go buy some shitcoins and let the adults talk about how to make real money.
Inb4 boomer.

>>16818563
>>16818565
funds track the market
if I buy a fund with 150 assets, what's the correlation between that and S&P? How will I ever beat the market?

>>16818590
You youngins are so impatient and lazy.

Buy Vanguard VWRL anon, it it is a good mix of USA, european, and asian companys with a small percentage emerging markets

this 4chanx update is fucking retarded.
How the fuck do i know what is the latest reply?

>>16818607
>>16818611
>>16818620
Time is ticking boomers, enjoy your slaving till retirement then your next 3 years of existence with your useless money because you cant enjoy shit with it

>>16818590
This is what casinos are for.

>>16818675
Lmao im 26 ill have a few million by the time I retire most of that will be going to my kids who will have enough common sense to invest it like I have.

The folks trusting index funds are in for a very rude awakening in the next decade. Automation and inflation will absolutely fuck returns in the 2020’s

>>16818718
I can understand inflation, but why would higher productivity fuck returns?

>>16818734
>I can understand inflation,
Guess how you beat inflation? Equities. Automation will pump equities incidentally.

>>16818718
Aware me on alternatives.
inb4 crypto

>>16818572
I'm not exactly saving for retirement. I just wish for a handsome return on the long run without dumb risks.
I'm looking up the funds you put.

And are funds other than Vanguard and Blackrock worth lookiong at?

Can an all-world etf like A1JX52 ever lose? financial panacea?

>>16818749
Options because you hold for a week tops. Be able to react as the market goes through the news cycle. Folks who played Iran right made a lot more than cucks holding VTI

>>16818786
Vanguard was founded by John Bogle and is owned by its funds, so it has a long-standing reputation for being an excellent place to save and invest. That being said, BlackRock, Fidelity, Charles Schwab et al certainly have funds that are worth investing in, many functionally identical to one another. For the run-of-the-mill type of funds, you probably wouldn't find them better or worse than Vanguard's offerings.

I will say that when I looked into setting up an HSA through Fidelity, in order to link my bank account to transfer funds they would have required my online banking password, so I refuse to use their platform for any reason. Something to take into consideration.

real red pill: instead of putting that money in some boomer fund put it into weekly AAPL calls in the money. Do it every week, you'll profit 3/4 weeks

or take out as much leverage as you can and buy the 3x long SPY ETF

>>16819061
Red pilled, also works for Amazon and Google options

>>16818996
>>16819061
>>16819087
tfw brainlet and can't wrap my head around options
All i understand is that I can somehow leverage returns disproportionately but I'm forefeiting all principal if the trade goes nowhere.

Best resources to learn?

>>16818590
The reality is you cant have everything in this world. Patience is strength.

>>16818452

VOO all the way. Just be sure to stick to your steady DCA strategy for the next few years because we're due for a correction. If you're not a weakhanded pussy you can buy the whole way down and then you'll be in great shape.

>>16818695
The house always wins, if you know what I mean.

>>16818704
>Pinches every penny but never gets to enjoy it in his youth
Ah yes, sounds like a life worth living.

>>16819302
Accumulating wealth is actually really enjoyable. You also don't need to spend stupid amounts of money to have "fun". Maybe you just don't have imagination?

Pick vanguard total market indexes. In my 401k I'm 50 percent large cap, 30 percent mid cap, 15 in small cap, 15 international.

Bonds are for losers

>>16818704

youth is more valuable that money. Enjoy driving a 2006 civic, eating rice and beans, and fucking zero girls in your 20s. If you're actually intelligent you can save while living well

I drive a 2018 V8, buy what I want, and live how I want while saving 3k a month at 25

>>16819366
Nice. What if I get pleasure from denying myself luxury?

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/09/michael-burry-warns-of-passive-investing-bubble/

>>16819366
What if in the future you can buy youth with money? Then money would be more important.

Vanguard is compromised and cucked

>Run by anti-American SJW boomers after Bogle left
>Pushes international funds and bonds over American funds, despite their horrible track record because of the above
>Multiple managers caught committing fraud
>Customer service has been cut to basically nothing despite the company being overbloated

>>16819230
If you want to gamble, use 5% of your total portfolio for it. Lets call this play money. Buy and hold with the rest.

>>16818616
You don't, retard.

>>16819470
I know :(

>>16819402
Sounds ominous but would funds allow so many investors to pull all at once? Shouldn't there be a law that suspends withdrawals until everyone calms the fuck down?
And isn't that exactly what happened to Burry? an investor mutiny?
Dude must've been shaken by that to warn of it over a decade later.

>>16818452
Or you could not be a fag and invest in something like AMD when it was $2. Use foresight.

>>16819612
>Or you could not be a fag and invest in something like AMD when it was $2. Use foresight.
Is it $2 now?

>>16819621
$48

>>16819612
Yea, Security Analysis is next.
I read II because its marketed as much simpler and for "the layman"

I put 80% of my stock allocation into vanguard funds. The other 20% is my fuck around meme trading money. My trackers are up almost 6% last month. My fuck around money is up a little over 20%. Ask me again in 6, 12 or 18 and so on and so on if I continue to outperform my vanguard funds I don't think I will always do as well.

Unfortunately I will be investing 8-12k a year for the next 30 years sooo .... active management of my own investments is kind of a pant shitting prospect. It'd be nice to think I'm going to compound fuck you money in the next year or two, but I think it might be an unrealistic dream ... or realistic, but just as risky as a casino.

This is my strategy.

60/40 foreign vs domestic.
Make sure your foreign funds are actually diversified across the globe and cap sizes.
Split the domestic 60%; 20% large cap, 20% Mid cap, 20% Small. This money is always on the market.

That’s your long term set up. Then take about 10% of that number and risk it all on something each year. This year I split it between mid cap cloud SaaS and cyber security. Some over lap 6 companies total. Last year I I set it in Tesla in May. Sold in Nov. This money does not always need to be on the market.

Never go short. Try to avoid options.

>>16819689
Buy and hold doesn't consume mental resources and those mental resources can be used for something else.

>>16818452
the question i have is if it makes sense to keep pumping money into index funds now, or if we should hold cash and wait til the recession and buy low....

Dont buy standard index funds. Its in a severe bubble thanks to passive investing.

Small cap index funds which select stocks outside of the larger funds are a better bet.

>>16819345
Kek total market and slicing are different things

Aren't highly indexed assets going to drop more than the others in the next bear market?

>>16819723
Spoonfeed me some of those small cap funds?

>>16819723
>stock is promoted to an index
>funds pick it up
>price rises
>people put $250 a month into funds
>price rises every month
>stock is now entrenched in the index

At this point only massive outperformance by a competitor, earth shatteringly bad news or mass withdrawal from funds will tank it. You aren't buying a stock any more, you are buying the continuation of passive investing.

>>16819721
Mid and small cap are actually pretty undervalued. Foreign even more so. It’s just the large caps that are bloated which make the major indexes project all stocks as being bloated.

>>16819736
Only the large caps.

>>16818590
Go to a casino then retard

>>16819828
this sounds shitcoin-level scammy when you think of it

>>16819889
It is why (as painful as it is with the terrible returns relative to US) you diversify even amongst stock holdings geographically.

>>16820036
Every (1st world)region underperforms and outperforms at some point in the timeline.

>>16819852
Interesting.

>>16820064
Not really. Japan ... stagnant ... UK ... stagnant ... desu the only ones showing growth are USA and Germany (DAX)

>>16820110
Imagine ignoring the emerging pacific basin in the 2020’s to 2030’s.

>>16820133
I will hold about 5% of this as part of my geographic diversification, but have concerns that most of it will be underwater. I understand new markets are key for rapid growth, but don't quite see a large consumer base?

>>16820133
Like half those countries it's not even legal to own property as a non citizens. You have to buy into twice removed shell companies.

>>16820110
You need to look at some long term charts. There are periods when Japan and UK performed well.

>>16820177
We are their consumer base. We buy their cheap shit. All manufacturing will move that region. They are even better at automating manufacturing than we are now. Foreign stocks in general are trading at over a 30% discount compared to domestic if you use earnings as a benchmark and 50% if you use dividends. Sometime in the next decade this will need to correct. So you have some good out performance built in. The US university system does a good job of syphoning global talent so I would rebalance before those numbers even out completely but they are out of line right now.

>>16819828
>>16819889
This is a misapprehension by newbs.
Index funds buying stocks for holding long-term are a fraction of transactions. Most of the transactions are by active traders, so they set the price.

>>16818590
the ability to delay gratification (monetary gain in tihs case) is correlated with intellect and success. Stay poor.

>>16820201
You can get some good exposure in something like RERGX. It’s in my wife’s 401k.

>>16819366
What do you do for work though anon? How are you saving that much post tax without living at home?

>>16820266
Interesting. What will those traders do in a recession?

>>16820275
Redpilled.

>>16818718
Automation means higher productivity which means greater gains you ABSOLUTE FUCKING MORON

>>16820266
I’d disagree even if it only skews it 2% each year, it compounds the issue over time. It’s been really popular since 08, so it’s definitely distorting stuff.

>>16819302
What do you mean retard? By simply purchasing experiences and not items you would save tens of thousands and still live an enjoyable youth

>>16820386
Most things that produce happiness are cheap or free. Do you need to pay money to talk with friends and loved ones? Do I need money to take a walk in nature? Do I need money to put pee pee in voo voo?

Buy great companies with low P/E like ViacomCBS, Occidental Petroleum, Delta Airlines, etc..

Pretty much guaranteed money.

>>16819302
Imaging trying to enjoy your youth doing nothing meaningful while having and existential cloud of dread following you around knowing their is certain chaos and suffering in your future. The peace of mind of an orderly future is the greatest thing money can buy and you don’t even need to spend money to get it.

>>16820615
Gazprom, Southwest Airlines, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, etc...

>>16820615
Oil will crash over the next decade. Probably a 30% drop in price by 2030.

>>16820641
Based and redpilled.

>>16818650
This is some grade A shit

>>16820641
absolutely based
thank you anon, just what I fucking needed to read.
relatively isolated because I'm so focused on building wealth

>>16820872
Sometimes 4chan can be useful. Who would have imagined?

>>16819366
>he can't enjoy driving a 2006 civic
>he is incapable of enjoying rice and beans
>he bases his self worth on how many women he uses

you are poor in every way imaginable

oh and by the way the cumbrains saying it's going to crash and crash soon have been here since this board started

want to guess how much its gone up in that time? how much in dividends its produced? how much those dividends reinvested have gone up?

>>16818452

Yeah I have money in a few Vangaurd funds. I split my Roth 401k into multiple different funds, and it's been pretty good.

Generally funds will be split by sector, risk, strategy, and asset class. For instance, I have a Vangaurd fund which invests more than 50% into emerging markets (second world countries mainly) - I don't put a lot of money in this one because it is riskier, but helps to act as a hedge, for instance, I also invest in a small-cap fund for American companies - there are cases where a turn of events help smaller companies, and a turn of events where American companies are hurt, but foreign ones are not, and vice-versa.

The management fees are honestly the main thing, so make sure you read into that. Note that certain funds have multiple fees, and they can be for dollar-amount or percentage. Beyond that you can choose a strategy or asset class or sector you want to invest in, for instance a 'Healthcare Fund', or 'Focus on safe dividends' and so on, dependent upon your particular outlook on the economy and risk tolerance.

Lastly, there is the actual fund performance itself, you might have two funds which supposedly should track say the Russell 1000, and despite this one consistently outperforms the other, for whatever reason.

I would recommend you look into tax-advantaged accounts if you haven't already.
The way I see it, I intend to be alive an retired at 50, and 55, and 60, and so on, and so if I have 5k which is 'budgeted for my retirement' I don't particularly mind having it locked up in a tax-advantaged account, provided the opportunity-cost makes sense.

>>16820357
chill. why are you so angry?

>>16818572
ahhah this post is so funny, they think they know what's up with capitalism but in reality they're just a drone reading lines their betters crafted at the quarterly report

>>16818452
if it's in a taxable account, avoid stuff that distributes a lot of ordinary income, it just makes taxes less of a headache.

try to make it kind of boring so it doesn't take up that much attention. it's easier to leave it the fuck alone if you have multiple funds. if you have one, then you tend to worry about that one holding too much. get 3 or 4 or 5, a mix of us and non-us - even if the exposures wind up being the same, if you have a tendency to fuck around with the worst performing position, it is only affecting 25% of the portfolio, not 90-100%.

>>16822147
That's a lot of money.
Why haven't you retired in Thailand yet?

>>16822190
The average American spends $400,000 on health care in retirement.

>>16822274
Holy fuck.
Why not just take that much money to some place fun and then die when you're too old to enjoy anything anymore?

>>16822274
Those healthcare costs are exaggerated by a minority of really sick people. Most modern lifestyle diseases can be avoided by a healthy lifestyle.

>>16822190
Maybe he chases something other than early retirement? But what?
>>16822147
We demand an answer!

>>16818590

You are vulnerable to scams. You will make somebody else very rich one day with that attitude.

>>16822323
True but experts still recommend saving $285,000 for the average couple. Just for health care, and expect to spend it all.

>>16818452
manage your risks

>>16822508
>experts still recommend saving $285,000 for the average couple.
So that is 142 500 per person. Probably need less if you exercise, sleep and eat well.

>>16822147
Post funds or the balances are just cringe.

>>16822552

>>16822190
i don't like hot weather.

>>16818616
The top 10-20 companies which compose the index are the market top performers. Hence their average return higher than average market return

>>16818452
>ETFs
yeah, you’re gonna lose it all lol

>>16818473
Man your incompetent. I made 28% last year and will probably do 35 this year. ETFs are for boomers.

>>16821620
I am torn between investing for dividends or for index funds. I want passive income but I also recognize the superior looking term growth potential. Can someone here please help me decide?

>>16824054
In the exact same boat as you.

Me living in Australia I can use franking credits to limit how much tax I need to pay on dividends but capital gains tax in Australia makes index funds look juicy.

>>16824054
Dividends + conservative options is great, Covered calls are a tool that leaves money on the table if you don't use them.

>>16824054
do both 50/50

>>16818452

Make sure you know what they're holding. Usually its very long, but you can find some turds in ETFs sometimes, like I've heard Vanguard apparently is really shit at picking out bonds.

>>16819588
he still runs that hedge fund but invests in a few contrarian options like game stop

>>16818452
It depends on your strategy, I guess. If you don't want to invest too much time following stocks, by all means, go into ETFs it's very difficult to go wrong in the long run. I personally enjoy managing my own stocks and am able to give an hour a day or two to following the market. If you're decent, you'll beat what any ETF can give you. But, again, you have to have the will and the time to follow market trends and shit like that. I find that enjoyable, but not everyone does. If I hated it or simply didn't have time, I'd go all in on ETFs. You're still letting someone else manage your money, and they probably use it to get much larger benefits than you do. However, if you feel comfortable with that and with having index-like gains, go right ahead.

>>16823944
>Man your incompetent. I made 28% last year. ETFs are for boomers

And a Total Stock Market Index fund made 30% last year.

The incompetent one is you.

>>16818979
Wondering about that as well. A1JX52 until 60k for untaxed dividends and then the A2PKXG seems like the best conservative option for me. I might set side aside 10-20% for good looking companies though.

>>16818452
I'm not legally allowed to give you advice on this subject.

Speak with a financial advisor.

>>16818590
I get it. Money is just so much more useful when you're young. The truth simply is though that becoming rich quick is just very unlikely (especially with stocks/shitcoins). Figure out what you'd do with a 100 million right now, and try to find out how to achieve those things as closely as possible without actually having 100 million, you might surprise yourself if you're willing to think about it seriously.

>>16823525
if you're extrapolating during a bubble, but over the long term it should return to the mean

Wow thread's still up
Should I order this or should I proceed with reading Security Analysis?

>>16819339
This anon. I am sitting on $450k in equities with a paid off house, plus one rental. The wife and I have always spent less than we make and are now putting away more than half our income each month. Easy ti do when your wants and needs are few and no debt

>>16819889
>>16819828
>>16820266

Bogle actually predicted this ten years ago and he said it would be a good thing overall. The idea was that companies would eventually focus on real long term growth instead of appeasing quarterly shareholders with risky. He hypothesized that it could actually reduce the occurance of bubbles over time because growth is real and not a 200 p/e ratio

>>16818452

Index / mutual funds are just for people who want to chase the whole "work for the 45 years and sock away a few grand every month" then retire at 65 with at least enough to live on a golf course or something somewhere in Indiana.

The only ways to really retire early are to actually make a fuck ton of money, or make a fuck ton of return. So you need to make $400k/year+ for a while, or make it big off things like stock options or crypto. Super high risk / to reward. Or start a business.

If you make an average wage, with even above average saving, index / mutual funds just aren't going to cut it to retire early, and right now have disproportionate risk because stocks are at all time highs and historically overvalued by many metrics. Now saying they won't go up more, just that its more risky than it has been in the few previous years.

>>16826638
analyses are predicting 2% returns going forward if you buy now

>>16826638

>>16818473
Nice you'll be able to buy a sports car and enjoy life at 60

>>16826638
You missed the best option. Just start saving 6 years earlier than all your peers and take care of your health so you don’t die young. If you can stretch your investing window 12-15 years, you can end up with 5x to 10x the savings you would have had otherwise.

>>16818452
Just combine your account with a roboadvisor if you want timely advise. Or just set it and forget it.

>>16826767
Analysts don’t know shit. Might as well use a crystal ball.

>>16826898

Not really, because early in your life you don't make that much money. Even if you got insane returns early on in your life, it won't matter if you're socking away a few grand a year vs putting $100k/year in later in your career. Plus, investing in mutual or index funds historically will about 2x your wealth (after inflation and reinvesting dividends) every 10 years. That's if you don't buy the top.

The best thing you can do when starting out is just focus on actually making a lot of money and saving it. Your actual returns you get starting out don't really matter compared to just building capital to start with.

>>16818590
You'll probably end up killing yourself due to crypto losses, or gains that did not meet your expectations.

>>16826609
Where can I read this? Sounds interesting.

>>16819302
That's why you try to move up the corporate ladder to make more money

>>16818616
You might have a couple good years, but the market humbles everyone at some point

That's why you need to get a good job so you can drop $10k into stocks every year. That and avoid getting married and having kids.

>>16827088
> Avoid being dual income
> Avoid doing the one thing that has provided meaning in life to all life for millions of years

Sounds like advices from somebody that can’t land a good women.

>>16826962
Didn’t say the returns matter but the way it lengthens your exposure matters and the experience matters. I can’t tell you how many of my peers haven’t started investing because they don’t know how and haven’t learned how to settle down and be an adult. I’ll have 50k to 100k of passive income by 30 and inherit between 2 to 5 mil sometime in the next 20 years. Be an adult. Marry well. Save early. Be intentional about your work. Don’t be an overgrown child til you are 35 and it’s too late.

>>16827168
>inherit between 2 to 5 mil sometime in the next 20 years
Gee anon, I think that might have just a tiny bit to do with your financial success. Even a fucking ape can make it if they're born into a rich family.

>>16827199
I was born poor. I married well.

>>16827168
>inherit between 2 to 5 mil sometime in the next 20 years
anticipating inheritance years in the future based on a family member's death is absolutely degenerate cringe

live your own fucking life

>>16827139
Good luck avoiding divorce

>>16827245
Imagine completely ignoring estate planing on principal.

>>16827254
Shouldn’t be a problem. Good midwestern values. Been together 7 years now. Rarely if ever have issues. Already have a kid. I’m surprised people have so much trouble sorting themselves out. People have been doing this for 100’s of years and we seem to be the 1st generations fucking everything up.

>>16818452
>>16818473
Sounds extremely cuckolded, looks like you're on the wrong board. We are about that 700% return in one year baby.

>>16827088

Great example why of just socking away chump change in an index fund is not going to let you retire early. Even if you were 22 in 2000, you'd be over 40 now and still have essentially less than $10k/year in passive income from that savings. And this is measured from the current ATH.

>>16827378
It should be the base of your investing so you don’t end up shafted but then 10 to 20 percent of your money should be swinging for the stars. Chances are you will beat the market slightly but the difference between 10% annual returns and 14% returns is ludicrous.

>>16827378
Well, you have a couple thigns wrong:

1) It's more than 10k/year passive income, even at a conservative 4%. This is just simple math ($366,744*0.04=$14,669.76)

2) If you are 40 with this amount of cash, you can expect it to grow at ~7% in just index funds. So by the time you are 60 you will have:
366744*1.07^20 = $1,419,183.55

Easily could live a very comfortable life from 60->infinite with that capital

Pretty damn good compared to most people's retirement savings.

Really want to invest but everything looks so jacked up in price and I have trouble seeing things going much higher before falling or flat-lining with legislated equality of outcome things.

Can't even comfortably by real estate because I still want to move around a bit. Fucking stock piling cash and losing it with inflation.

>>16827599

Cool, hopefully the dollar will still be around in 60 years so you can live off $40k/year.

>>16828229
wait so you don't believe in index funds because you think the dollar will fail in 60 years? lol

Lots of earnings coming up frens
Take advantage of the ramping up IV and sell some options spreads and collect the free money when IV crush comes in the next day!

>>16828405

No, I'm saying putting only $10k/year away is not nearly enough to retire if you're investing in index funds.

>>16828460
but it is, the math is literally in this post for your eyes to see:

>>16827599

that's not even counting any contributions from 40-60. It would be way higher if so

>>16826986

It was in an interview he did. I think it was morningstar's YouTube channel. It's about an hour long interview. Can't remember which one it was exactly.

>>16824054
this isn't a real decision
dividends just means less capital growth and need to be reinvested over the long term

>>16822190
>>16822316
peak brainlet who will be poor today, tomorrow, and beyond

>>16828474

You are talking about having 1.4mil in 40 years? That is like $50k/year income at best, and take into account inflation will cut that spending power by 2/3 by then, so its more like living off <$20k/year today. Working till your >60 for that too.

If you actually want to retire early you have to figure out how to put $50k+ a year at least if you're just going to be socking it away into an index fund.

>>16828516
>inflation
he used a 7% figure which means that final value is in 2020 dollars when will people stop parroting this and open up a fucking book once ever in their lives

>>16828516
man this is painful, you clearly have not done any research on how to actually retire

>That is like $50k/year income at best

wrong, just do the math it's so simple

4% takes inflation into account, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study

so 4% of 1.4mil is $56,000/yr of TODAY's value, inflation does not matter (the actual growth will be 7%, so take off 3% for inflation)

please stop trying to act like an authority when you clearly have not done any research on this stuff, millions of people retire comfortably every fucking year with index funds

>>16828527
>>16828538

Maybe if you bought 10 years ago you'd get 7% returns after inflation. In the next decade there is expected to be much higher inflation (eventually all those foreign holdings of USD will stop growing and reverse), and much lower appreciation since sock market participation is pretty much near an historic max. That's why people are estimated real returns after inflation will be more like 2% in the future. You're also talking about a 40 year timeline. Most people here want to retire in half that time. So yeah, buying index fund at all time highs are not going to cut it.

>>16828583
>Most people here want to retire in half that time.
Let's be realistic here. Anyone sane wants to do that, but for 99% of people it's completely impossible. For one or two people who got rich through shitcoins, there are thousands who just lost money, and it's the same for stocks and creating your own business. That doesn't mean you shouldn't try, of course. But it's still smart to invest long-term, because chances are very high you'll fail in your endeavors.

>>16828583
>In the next decade
>Most people here want to retire in [two decades].

10 years ago your inflation adjusted CAGR would be 12.66%, not 7%

your argument amounts to reversion to the mean
which by extension means the following decade should return it to the 7%

>>16827672
put it in PMs at least and wait for prices to come down

>>16828645
>7% annual returns
Traders make that much in no time while fingerbanging their anus's. Legs up on the table, porn on one screen and charts on the other. They're jerking off to some hot porn while pressing a few buttons. Meanwhile SaFe InVeStOrS are making 7% after 365 days. Fingerbang my asshole and call me anon because that's some shit right there!

>>16828608

That's my point, you really have to have above-average income to actually retire by only investing into index funds. The returns are just not enough if you aren't saving $50k+/year.

>>16828645

10 years ago was the bottom of the crash. Now we are an ATH, so its a pretty cherry picked range. Plus this is after near zero interest rates for a decade. Stock market participation grew to an all time high. Allocation of savings to stocks are at an all time high. There is literally nothing else to invest in.

Maybe this trend will continue, but how much more people could be invested into stocks right now? I wouldn't bet my life savings on it. People are treating index funds like savings accounts now, like there is no risk. Last year the fed raised rates just a tad and the market crashed 30%. Imagine if they had to raise rates to 6% again, 10%, 18% like in 1980 to combat inflation. Its not outside the realm of possibility that the S&P500 would crash >50%. But every one and their mom who read about index funds online thinks they are doing people a favor by telling them invest in index funds because there is no risk, sock a couple grand a year in it and its supposedly the guaranteed way to retire.

>>16828747
Nothing is without risk though. Gold/silver/art are just ways to bank your cash without growing it, real estate is an even more gigantic bubble, shitcoins are a fucking joke, and picking single stocks is extremle likely to fuck you over. You can't just not invest your money either because then inflation fucks you over. For someone who doesn't have the skills or mentality to try their hand at making a business, ETFs and index funds are simply the best choice.

>>16828747
Interest rates will never go that high again in our lifetime because the amount of government debt. They are probably range bound -1% to 6%. Where you will get boned is inflation. The only way to bring debt down to sustainable levels is going to be print money. I think there will be 13% nominal gains over the next 2 decades spurred by 4% annual inflation and increased productivity due to technology. If you get caught holding cash you are toast. That’s why stocks are so high. Debt has locked interest rates low and promises future inflation. That’s also why income statements are more important than balance sheets right now.

>>16828680
like I said
absolute cumbrain
yes, your minimum wage income will not be enough for any amount of realistic returns to matter

>>16818665
?

>>16829369

If foreign holdings of USD start to decrease, trade deficits turn to surpluses, then the government will find it easy to turn a surplus and finance the debt. Interest rates can rise in that case.

>>16829769
Fuck me if that ever happens. I don’t see the USD going anywhere for a long time. The US hasn’t even turned into a rich do nothing financier country yet which is usually the last step. Happened to both the British and the Dutch. As long as the US is the tech finance and academic hub of the world the USD will be at a premium.

>>16823944
Everyone made 28% or better last year you moron

>>16829843
>tfw missed out cause grew up poor and just starting lucrative career last year
fug

>>16818718
>automation
based retard

>>16818473
That's 12% average return, which is great. Unfortunately the golden shitcoin bullrun has soured autists to making money slowly so you'll get nothing but scorn here

>>16818996
>Folks who played Iran right
How did they play ''iran'' right?
Explain please...cause it seems a gamble... people who tought ''no war'' played right
it's the same game theory as in the stock market

>>16818473
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

>>16819417
everyone jumping to vanguard is like everyone choosing the same ship. if vanguard sinks, it's gonna be insane. will take the market with it.

>>16819274
Understood

For anyone else doing the ETF/fund game, how many do you hold on to? I'm currently on a nice autistic 10, but somehow simultaneously feel like that is too many and not enough

Index funds are in a bubble tought
Immagine putting your money and getting 7% yearly... if this is not a bubble I don't now what it is then

>>16833029
this
put it in crypto and get -70% yearly

>>16818611
My linky made me more than you could make with all your brothers and cousins combined in 10 lifetimes

Could be too early for smallcaps, if there is any hiccups in the economy they'll be the first to fall.

Max out your IRA and periodically move that cash into something like VTI or VOO. I also like VUG, but it's not particularly important.

If there's a real correction, the market drops 10 % or something, then you put more in that month.

This is assuming you're a just trying to accumulate wealth for retirement. You may want some exposure to international, if you think the global economy is about to reaccelerate, but who knows if that's actually going to happen or not.

Schwab also has good, low cost funds and stuff. Something like SCHX is probably fine.

You might want to wait til after the democratic primary, or at least see if theres a solid pullback in Jan/Feb. Set it up though.

>>16818590
Find the best risk adjusted returns you can and lever up. You can do this easily with distressed real estate, or rolling up small businesses. Tons of loan programs out there for these types of assets.

>>16826543
Security Analysis. This book just drives home the message of low cost/tax efficient investing with some basic math and anecdotes. Good, but not necessary

>>16827254
Stay away from roasties and don't be a degenerate POS

>>16833073
If you can’t handle -70%, how can you possibly handle -99.99%?

>>16819417
My company dropped vanguard because they have shitty customer service. also my company was a very important customer.

>>16820685
this lithium is going to be the new white gold.

>>16833223
>if you think the global economy is about to reaccelerate
it can accelarate thanks to FED QE money printing...it can go in this direction
Who can't stop them?

>>16818590

I suggest buying Bitcoin immediately. By the end of 2021 you'll have 10x your money.

Do your own research. Look up the halving cycles. And remember to sell. Godspeed anon. We're all gonna make it.

>>16820872
It’s just validation anon, people ‘need’ attention you can see it in everything they do. We have access to build our financial future at a younger age than any previous generation. Do you see why there’s so many distractions? Let them stay poor and throw their time and goybux at nigger ball every weekend or whatever shit normies waste money on

>>16833687
>Who can't stop them?
You're talking about the US federal reserve? Even if you include the rest of the central banks all over the world, monetary policy isn't the only determinant of the global economy. They're doing what they can to keep the US expansion going, but there's no telling what'll happen with the economies of Germany, England, Japan, etc. Not to mention difficulties emerging in China. I haven't been following India too closesly, maybe you can help me with that, but I know Modi looked to be not friendly enough with big business, but seemed to change his approach, and the bank of india was loosening, but then was seen as not loosening enough...

There's great uncertainty with the macro environment.

>>16833299
Is Security Analysis actually worth reading or is it obsolete because of index funds?

I’m 22 with almost 100k in an index. At 24 I will be graduating with an economics master’s but don’t really have any idea how much money I will be making.

>>16833982
..i don’t expect it to be more than 3k net a month. Am I doomed to be a poorfag?

>>16833982
>more money at 22% than 99% of people at 30
>hurr will I be a poorfag
Based humblebragger.

>>16834042
This.

>>16834042
Hmm 50k of that is student loan. 100k will not even be a million when I’m 60 when assuming a 5% return

>>16818473
>t. Peter Boomerjak

>>16818473
I could have made 20k by leaving it my offshore account faggot

>>16818452
Just buy VOO and ur good

>>16833856
>There's great uncertainty with the macro environment.
I can't see this uncertinty can you enlight me please? No normie shit ''muh recession''

>>16828747
>Last year the fed raised rates just a tad and the market crashed 30%. Imagine if they had to raise rates to 6% again, 10%, 18% like in 1980 to combat inflation.
I am a new trader
Could you explain me please why evrytime FED increases rates the marcet crashes?
Also why in your opinion should the Fed increase the rates again? Didn't it found a balance with this rates?

>>16828814
>real estate is an even more gigantic bubble
there will always be people willing to buy an house and immigration...so is not a bubbòe

>>16828747
>Last year the fed raised rates just a tad and the market crashed 30%

Idiot.

>>16829369
>Interest rates will never go that high again in our lifetime because the amount of government debt
dwhy governament debt does not let the inteest rate go up?

>>16829369
>I think there will be 13% nominal
gains of index funds?

Whats the rate of inflation?
2% right?
So after 10 years the money is worth 20% less.
I have a feeling that the rate of inflation is higher than that though.

>>16818452

>buying at the ALL TIME HIGH
>boomers getting ready to dump their bags on everyone
>economy could fall into chaos at any moment
>2020 election - imagine if bernie or warren wins

>>16835862
But people have been saying that for years. If you wait for a crash to invest, you might never find an entry point.

>>16818590
>I don't want to have money when I will be fucking 60
Oh, you won't, trust me.

>>16835935

once boomers start cashing out their retirements funds en masse, the game is over. index & mutual funds will enter a death spiral. more boomers will cash out while the values keep dropping. millenials and zoomers aren't going to buy into boomer stocks in nearly enough numbers to ever bring them back up to today's levels. this will be the next (and last?) global financial crisis.

>>16835991
followed @lockspremier on twitter and made a shit ton more than I would have just buying a index fund.

>>16818452

PETRODOLLAR MAXIMUM HAPPENING!
MASSIVE FINANCIAL / GEOPOLITICAL RED PILL THREAD HERE FAGGOTS!
>>16825872

Read all of OP's posts and ignore shills!
ITS OVER FOR THE JEWS AND BURGERS!

>>16834262
>No "muh recession"
The US is not the global economy, and it's been carrying the weight of many other economies for a while now.

Muh Japanese and German recessions are real, muh manufacturing recession is real.

>>16835105
Immigration and birth rates are down, population growth numbers out last month were very disappointing.

>>16835862
There are all time highs several days every month during a bull run. It's scary to invest, which is why there's so much money flowing out of the market and into bonds and money market funds right now. How much of those record outflows from the market do you think are just hoping for a dip to buy?

>>16836008
Boomers aren't the only old people or the only ones saving for retirement. The number of old people is only going to rise drastically in the future. And all these people are going to want to invest their money as well, because "muh great economy" means shit if wages are stagnant.