/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16811257
>I am asking everyone to please refrain from telling the world what is really taking place. Only the core people involved in high-level finance understand the risks and can see what is unfolding. It is just that I am the only one who can speak right now. There are even central banks that are still grasping to comprehend this crisis.

>>16811263
did somebody call for bobo?

>>16811257
ok doomer

>>16811286
Your not concerned about banks having liquidity to meet reserve requirements?

>>16811293
Have banks ever had that?

>>16811293
no I don't trust banks and you shouldn't either

>>16811293
OP here.
So you know what this is about?
So how do we prepare?
Better yet, how do we profit?!?!?!?!
Like we did during the mortgage crisis of 08 by buying rental property on the cheap.
DAMN IT!!
I NEED TO KNOW!!

>>16811257
>We have been helping institutions to prepare in hopes of mitigating the serious implications which can take down many. We have to work on this quietly.
>So please do not even discuss this in social media.
>So please do not even discuss this in social media.
SAY WHAT?!?!

>>16811336
it's simple
the fed is pumping dollars into banks so they can meet reserve requirements
so this means they're printing money already and will have to "print" more liquidity into the market to keep it a float
this means the dollar is being debased further

so invest in assets outside the dollar
property is overblown because people are in 30 year mortgages just to buy a house so the prices are super inflated
gold has been going up lately and so has bitcoin

stocks will go up because the dollar is being debased but those aren't real gains
bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against the dollar in a world when most commerce is done over the internet

>>16811293
>>16811305
>>16811336
tighter reserve requirements probably had a bit to do with this, so I wouldn't be too concerned on the face of it. Yes, there are liquidity problems, but this time they will bring down everyone else before hitting big banks.

>>16811389
>property is overblown
I thinking of getting another middle income rental, on a 15 yr mortgage.

>>16811257
Fuck off retard

Repos are considered the “grease” of the global financial system since they provide cash that banks, broker dealers and other institutional investors need to run their daily operations. The market for repos typically operates like a well-oiled machine, with more than $2 trillion trading hands every day. But beginning in mid-September, this relatively sedate corner of the market showed signs of malfunctioning.

Because repos are backed by high-quality collateral, their interest rates are typically lower than the effective fed funds rate, the interest banks charge each other on unsecured, overnight loans. On September 16, however, the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR), a common repo benchmark, closed at 2.42%—17 basis points higher than the 2.25% fed funds rate. And the following day, the TGCR closed at 5.25%, a whopping 300 basis points higher

Market participants attributed these unusual rate spikes to a perceived lack of liquidity. Strong demand for cash met sparse supply. On the demand side, companies needed funding to pay quarterly income taxes, and banks paid for their U.S. Treasury purchases following a Treasury auction.

Regarding supply, the level of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has shrunk considerably since the Fed ended quantitative easing in 2014.

This demand/supply imbalance triggered anxious memories of the 2008 financial crisis, when strains in the repo market were among the first signs of trouble. Back then, counterparty risk was the primary concern. Because lenders doubted the ability of borrowers to repay the loans given questions about both liquidity and solvency of major financial institutions at the time, they demanded sharply higher overnight rates.

1/2

>>16811436
do you own 10 bitcoin?

>>16811257
So the Fed sprang into action on September 17, injecting $53 billion into the overnight repo market—the first time since the crisis that the central bank had taken such drastic steps to keep short-term interest rates from rising. That move has been followed by more than 100 daily loans, mostly in the $30 billion-$80 billion range.

But the Fed didn’t stop there. To ensure an adequate supply of reserves, in October it began buying $60 billion of short-dated U.S. Treasuries a month. These purchases are slated to continue until at least the second quarter of 2020.

The Fed’s aggressive support successfully contained repo rates for the remainder of 2019 and into January. Investors paid particular attention to interest-rate action in late December, when banks often abstain from lending ahead of important regulatory calculations taken before the start of the new year. In the past, these tighter conditions have triggered sharply higher TGCR rates—but not this time. Each day during the week between Christmas and New Year’s, the TGCR closed in line with or below the effective fed funds rate, a clear sign of market calm.
https://www.tiaa.org/public/offer/insights/tiaa-market-commentary/market-response-to-events-in-iran-a-pause-not-a-panic
2/2

>>16811257
pssst.
https://archive.is/TkS5G

>>16811257
based and armstrongpilled

>>16811462
This crisis is is originating in Europe.
The FED can control things here in the US to a degree, but not in Europe.
If it blew up, how do you protect yourself and maybe profit if you were in cash?
If it blew up, what?

>>16811257
https://moneyfortherestofus.com/270-repo-rates/

>>16811462
Well explained anon, thank you for that.
Now my opinion on this repo shit.
This just shows what a fragile shit system we currently use to buy goods. This also shows that as long as the dollar is the world reserve currency the FED decides about the world. Ether we like it or not, if the FED catches cold for whatever reason the world goes into a coma. I always ask my self what caused such a huge spike in the rate? Somebody like Soros or so must have a hand in this. Fragile shit system.

>>16811257
>How profit
XRP is literally designed to mitigate this issue

>>16811981
REPO crisis is starting in Europe, but if it blew up, what happens to us?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/europe-how-will-they-respond-to-being-the-source-of-the-crisis/

>

>>16811257
Fug amstrong published everything public and rarely did something private wtf is going on in the repo market.

>>16812175
Nothing, was just a spike what was corrected already by the FED.

>>16812196
>Nothing, was just a spike what was corrected already by the FED.
Love this.
>Nothing to see here, move along.

Repo? How about that TBA financing rate. That's the real kicker

>>16812315
>TBA
don't even know what this is.....?

>>16811257
how does this affect the eur/usd pair. currently long on this pair. hope im right.

>>16812060
Fuck off shill, people are talking.

>>16811257
Bullish for ARPA.

>>16811257
The repo crisis is mostly contained for now.
The euros have some systemic problems with zero and negative rates, and until this gets contained and rates normalized capital will continue to flow into the dollar and US equities seeking real returns vs negative rates.
US fed repo adds liquidity to the US system, which in turn drives equity prices higher.
Bottom line is US equities are going to moon as more and more dollars compete for real returns.
Eventually it will all go to hell though, but I think we have at least most of 2020 before anything will happen.

>>16813549
I think we have 6 months max, probably much less

>>16811389
>stocks will go up because the dollar is being debased but those aren't real gains
could you explain better in a single word why they are not real gains?

>>16813592
Definitely less

>>16813549
this makes sense, but I think we have longer than 2020.
>>16813592
You too, longer than 2020.
>>16813617
gezzz, guys, would you fucking stop it already.

>>16813597
Inflation

>>16813624
Because you’re a brainlet.


This shit will crash before November 2020. Bet the farm and screencap this post

>>16813659
It's going to go longer than 2020.
And it's the pessimism we see right here that will drive it up.

>>16811257
it’s literally nothing and nothing will happen. you seething bears are so desperate for anything that will drop the Dow 500 points so you can temporarily claim victory; it’s pathetic

>>16811722
The US has never been dragged into recession by global pressures, ever. If you're euro poor you've had it coming for a long time.

>>16813765
Sounds like it was here.
>The Great Depression that began at the end of the 1920s was a worldwide phenomenon. By 1928, Germany, Brazil, and the economies of Southeast Asia were depressed. By early 1929, the economies of Poland, Argentina, and Canada were contracting, and the U.S. economy followed in the middle of 1929. As Temin, Eichengreen, and others have shown, the larger factor that tied these countries together was the international gold standard.

https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html

>>16813640
but wages they also go up along with inflation

>>16813549
>US fed repo adds liquidity to the US system, which in turn drives equity prices higher.
>>16813549
>Eventually it will all go to hell though
when?
Also can't it continue in this way? Why not?

>>16811257
Wasn’t it supposed to happen on New Years? The Fed is on top of it, for the first time.

>>16813592
>I think we have 6 months max, probably much less
based on what are these estimations?

>>16814000
Literally pulled out of their asses. Nobody knows when shit will go down and you will probably not even know it’s currently going down until later.

>>16811389
holy shit someone else who actually understands what's going on is still on /biz/

how's it going bro

>>16813924
do.... do you seriously believe that? Remember, we're talking average wages here not "tech bubble" or "real estate bubble" wages

>>16811389
I was thinking about splitting a third of my cash savings in to dollars and eurobux, should I just keep them in SEK instead?

>>16813549
"subprime is contained!!!"

>>16812532
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tba.asp