/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16607715
so i should short junk bonds?

>>16607715
Blah blah blah the fed will just pump more money into the systen, assets will continue to inflate and household debt will just increase accordingly. This can literally go on for decades.

The money comes back tenfold by pumping their investments, or by extending them a greater line of credit from the banking side of the investment scheme, that line of credit which is a fed deposit which the bank doesn't actually need to account for before lending it out.

Now, this effect has lead to insane crashes since repealed, 2000 tech bubble was huge because of investment banks getting involved into equity markets, lending out to hedge funds buying securities ect. This has malformed the market into bassically one giant pump and dump scheme, only they are getting rich of every americans credit lines, deposits, and business credit. There is no such thing as fundamentals anymore, it is all about how much money the fed and banks are willing to lend out before somebody calls the bluff.

This led noticeable to 2008, where the credit cycle hit an inflection point. Real estate had become a monster, investment banks were making cash hand over fist trading and underwriting the synthetic securities market, all because Americans could pump it with trillions in NINJA loans from the loan writers, allowing everyone to own 6 houses.

So, if you can see Alan Greenspan by deregulating only a small portion of the market has malformed it rather then made it more free. What he did was make a chimera of a financial system that needs credit flows to continue business and equity value operations, morphing the two. This is why the credit cycle IS THE business cycle now. And this is why repo is so important to the market right now. In this malformed economy, long term credit worthiness does not matter, what matters is the risk premium placed onto a business in its day to day operation. That risk premium manifests through lending in the repo markets.

>>16607715
well.. he's right.

>>16607828
>Blah blah blah the fed will just pump more money into the systen
back to work wagie. this conversation is for grown ups.

One question.
How do we profit from this ?

>>16607760
Anything above C3 yes. C3 actually is going insane, it is the highest spread ever between c2 and c3 debt right now. I personally believe this to be an effect of the "search for yield" that has pushed all other tranches into "acceptable" category for investment firms, making C3 the only true "junk bond". Rather then shorting them I would look at what companies are in the c3 traunch, then look at their equity and tax statements, and draw your own parallels as to what a company who is c3 tier looks like. Then find higher rated debt companies that show similar balance sheets and short them instead.

>>16607806
Wrong, they can only do this as long as foreigners continue to support the system, currency value stays relative, AND consumers have money to spend. Thus their goal is to keep currency value relatively high, keep foreign investment coming in, AND keep consumer spending up on buisnesses. Only if all 3 of these conditions are met does the economy go up. It's a rock paper scissors game, if currency inflates then consumer spending goes down, if foreign investment stops then currency inflates, if consumer spending stops then foreign investment stops.

It can not continue if one of those fundamnetally change. And there is always an oversight. Looks like this time the oversight might have been with hedge funds being able to yolk the repo markrt.

>>16607715
>Zoltan Poszar, a Credit Suisse analyst has come out to say there will most likely be a repo market meltdown causing QE4 by the end of the year.
Zerohedge article this morning says the crisis was averted. Now what?

>>16607715
who gives a SHIT you RETARD NIGGER. ALL of the markets are broken. THEY ARENT DISCOUNTING MECHANISMS THAT PRICE RISK YOU DUMB CUNT THEY ARE POLITICAL FICTIONS. S+P 500 TO 100K. BUY NOW OR BE A FEUDAL SERF BY EOY YOU FUCKING NIG NOG

>>16607841
Can't argue against any of it I see. But please tell me how your fundamental analysis means jack shit in a planned economy. Learn what the Fed's double mandate is and how it effectively nullifies the law of supply and demand. There's a reason all the bearish macro analysts have been getting rekt for the past 4+ years.

>>16607850
Since we do not have access to a bank we can't setup a position for this. Best bet would be to short/hedging side of low traunch corporate debt CDS, since we can't setup that position though to my knowledge shorting the market is the next best option. Which is obviously not ideal as nobody knows when this could come to a head. Of course, if you assume zosar is right now is not a bad time to short.

>>16607992
Zosar isn’t right, this shitshow could go on for decades.

>>16607992
>>16607992
>now is not a bad time to short.
you might as well just withdraw your money in cash and mail it to goldman sachs' jersey city office. one more dead corpse to add to the massive pile of retail investors who fuel this rally by thinking they're the next wolf of wall street. JUST BUY THE FUCKING DIP YOU FUCKING IDIOT.

>>16607923
So long as they have a central bank, everty foreign govt is in the same boat. Everyone has an incentive to keep the fiat ponzi going. This is like US states buying the neighbors debts because they're not allow to buy their own bonds.

>>16608028
Except an increasing number of people dont. On the global stage at least BRICS has been posing a serious threat to us economic hegemony.

>>16608005
If you actually read the report maybe you would understand the math behind why if he is correct now would be a fine time to short. Or keep spouting platitudes at me with your broken english, that's cool too.
>>16607998
oh and why is that? I've given you every reason why the opposite is true. Please enlighten me.

also nobody is talking about this https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/federal-reserve-bank-glitch-delayed-bank-account-deposits.html glitch my ass, something is going on

>>16608338
Oh shit son, get that tinfoil off of yo head.

>>16607828
>>16607841
this response was meant for greentext from comment above yours. You are probably right.

>>16608514
Yeah I figured as much. Chose to not reply as such.

>>16608484
But see, we know the federal reserve lies about these things from the last crash where they shut down markets sometimes and gave false reasons. It's not entirely tinfoil.

>>16608298
bitch I was reading zoltan pozsar back when he worked for the federal reserve bank of new york. please short the market.

>>16608694
Touchê, how do you not understand what hes talking about then though? His math is completely right and the Fed didn't notice, rrp has set a floor for foreign governments actually higher then O/N repo, there sucking the system dry. Everything he said was right and the fed was losing like a couple hundred million a day before they cut rates. That doesn't concern you?

>>16607923
>Thus their goal is to keep currency value relatively high, keep foreign investment coming in, AND keep consumer spending up on buisnesses. Only if all 3 of these conditions are met does the economy go up.

Do you think you're smart for coming up with this. Retard, that's been the goal of every Gov wanting to keep the economy on the up and up for the last 1000 years.

>>16607715
i feel like this will be a good thread. thanks for spreading the knowledge OP

>>16609008
Not at all, I'm just laying out the supporting arguments. Do you feel smart for pointing out I made an argument? Or are you under the assumption your aspergers riddled conscious is the only one around so because you understand something everybody will?

>>16607715
are you the guy who made the post a month ago about hood rats selling crack to each other? Similar big brain energy going on there as here.

>>16607930
>zerohedge predicts doom
>haha, all is well, crisis averted
I wonder if the same CIA/NSA/Mossad guy wrote both articles

>>16609144
Probably

>>16607715
we have had threads about this. and the head of the fed was asked about this in a live interview.

>>16607930
Didnt catch this comment

After reading the article it looks like they are considering it fixed because of underutilized subscription, which sure that would make sense if we were looking at repo as a long term market structure, but these are static numbers so the fact we are undersubscribed on an operation that is still larger then when repo began by 40 billion is huge.

So basically Greenspan was a based accelerationist?

>>16609325
We've had threads about why QE4 began before the eoy, which I'm aware of because I've probably made about 2/3 of every current macro threads we've had over the past 3 months.

we haven't had anything about zoltan poszar though. His paper talks about the foreign repo market the fed provides which is something nobody else is looking at.

>>16609528
Everybody is an accelerationist if you look at it in that light. Very smart man but he works for (them), turning everything into a credit cycle gave the fed and certain government agencies inordinate sway over the market. Very centralized power.

>>16610217
slow down on the zerohedge, buddy. china and its friends still have way too many bonds to want to dump this ponzi soon - fed will print money like crazy, we'll see some wacky inflation numbers that don't correlate with reality, and the ponzi will go on after a short recession in the early 2020s.

china still has trillions of us debt that it doesn't want to lose by fucking with our currency system - it's one of the reasons why they fuck with their own currency: USD is valid worldwide, theirs is viewed as lesser and can be manipulated more without other powers really giving a shit.

the world won't end tomorrow, or even this decade probably

>>16610319
If there’s one place that’s fucked it’s China, literal 30 year Ponzi scheme

>>16610330
4700 year old ponzi, we all just have cooler tools now than in the terracotta soldier days

>>16607715
>I've seen literally NOTHING on this in the past week
I've seen it at least 5 times you worthless pleb

>>16610330
Agree. The Communist Party is so afraid of their own populace that they will do every dirty trick in the book to cook the books and keep the party going. One day itll all come crashing down and there will be massacres.

>>16610340
Nice try chink. The rise of the CCP and the cultural revolution was a hard reset.

>>16610364
It’s tough to know what is even real in that shithole

>>16610364
Will it though? The people running the show seem to understand the fact that you can run this game FOREVER. Sure every now and again you might have a "crash" where a few people get richer and a few more get fucked, but in the end the ponzi always continues. Like you said, 4700+ year old ponzi, and you think it'll stop anytime soon? The trick is so simple and so old that unless the average iq of the global population increased by at least 30 points, then it will be business as usual. Say what you want about dirty tricks, but progress has been made, and as you can see, if progress is being made, then no one gives a shit that it's all fueled by an illusion. That's what makes it have such staying power.

>QE Bad

>>16610606
What you fail to recognize is that those “little crashes” can culminate in very real death and destruction. Just because I get rock hard at the prospect of hundreds of millions of chinks and poos murdering each other and/or eating leaves and bugs (again) doesn’t make it a good thing.

>>16607715
OK neat, so where should I put my existing purchasing power

>>16610692
The real problem around the world is a shortage of US Dollars. Every third world fucking shithole basically runs their country with the US Dollar (Some Euros, no chinkbuxs) and it being really strong fucks these clown countries pretty bad. Nobody loans to any company or country in their shitty inflation currency but in US Dollar, so when the dollar appreciates they have problem with the loans. Of course the federal reserve really isn't tasked with dealing with this sort of issue, but it's the real problem right now

>>16610319
That's a extremely disingenuous on every point you just made, first off because repo is a serious topic that market participants should be looking at closely considering this is activity we haven't seen since Lehman brothers collapsed, and as a percentage compared to market breadth and market cap its the largest single day injections ever. Second, your assuming I think the world economy will collapse and disregarding my information, despite having said neither of those things nor implying them, and in fact if you have read anything else I've written I'm extremely bullish on growth in the long term, what I'm not particular bullish on is the US government and financial ecosystem as it exists. Also that type of behavior is explicitly the type of thinking discouraged on 4chan, and exactly why I post my research here and not on reddit, if you have thoughts back them up or back the fuck up and you've done neither and are here shitting on me. Third, your being extremely disingenuous to zerohedge. It's not 2012 anymore faggot, every body and their mother knows what the current market meta is and we've moved far past "financial argamedon becuz I say so". The reason we knew back in August that this liquidty crunch was going to hit was because some insider shared BOA assessment on foreign gov dumping Treasury's onto the open market while the Treasury was increasing it's balance. Fuck even the fed didn't know what was going on giving us the runaround with a Japanese holiday and taxes. Fuck if you've even taken a LOOK around the financial news sector you can see people are starting to scrape the information from select zerohedge articles.

It's obvious they're going to sink the ship with no survivors. There's no other real option.
The whole idea of this system was to sink it and get as many people to go down with it as possible. You could have read about this shit on obscure conspiracy websites decades ago.
A new system will be implemented once this one sucessfully crashes.
Long whatever digital cash you can I feel specifically ''bullish'' on ETH.

>>16610357
You faggots keep saying that, but if you go to the archive and search zoltan poszar there is nothing. Please, post screenshots. Queer

>>16610767
You are way overblowing the importance of the repo liquidity and the banks balance sheets have honestly never been better. In fact the panic regulations that were set in place are honestly holding back the economy because they make these banks keep way too much reserves on their balance sheet. This is nothing like 2008 I bet the economy could be 3.5% if they loosed some of the regs

>>16610692
This

So sick of these stoner faggots who watch 8hrs of factually incorrect YouTube conspiracy theories about the gold standard and suddenly consider themselves experts on the fed

>>16610767
you seem angry... cheer up bucko! there's nothing you can do about it by complaining on an indonesian puppetry forum. worst case scenario, we experience 1970-1980s type inflation while the dems churn out regulations with their next duly elected president, be it 2020, 2024, or 2028.

you're way over-inflating the "QE not QE" repo liquidity happenings

>>16610781
Repo is the reserves. We are literally having problems in the market that determines wether you are allowed to actually cash out your bank account. Sure they could lower reserve requirements, but we already don't have enough cash for institutions to run day to day, that would only aggravate the problem. Are you suggesting the fed just becomes the only market maker and prints as much day to day as the market needs?

Also "banks balance sheets have never looked better" is completely a misnomer when talking about possible recessionary triggers. Literally by definition they would not be able to tell where the misallocation is or else they would just fix it. Think of a better argument.

>>16610785
This is literally my job faggot. I literally wagie 9 hours a day at a fund doing nothing but researching the economy in general and find points of interest. What, are you some faggot who has a 401k he invests himself and think your a based boomer finance bro because of it? Get the fuck outta here with your shit smol brain.

>>16610692
this kind of but also
>>16610917
everything you're saying is common sense if you know anything about markets.
If the trade was goes into next year repo markets may simmer for awhile.

>>16610868
I'm sorry if you mistook my criticism for anger. I just want a good conversation with somebody who actually works with numbers at the very least, its a bit aggravating to fund some people are so far down the rabbit hole they think math is baseless. Either way I actually can do things about, and i am. If you want to try and continue virtue signaling how based you are for understanding everything's a non issue except what you have deemed worthwhile, which by your post it seems that you are a political sheeple, then by all means continue. Quite the brainlet move however, really all you've done is out your opinion as a non-issue. Politics can be fabricated where as math can't, its why the stupid are poor.

>>16610932
QE isn't inheritely bad yes, that poster is completely right. Everyone who see's QE and thinks it's bad doesn't understand its just a supply and demand mechanic introduced by the fed is a brainlet. However failing to see the what and why behind QE is a problem in my opinion. Should we really be debasing the currency to dig insurance companies out of the water? Probably not, but then again they probably shouldnt have existed in that form in the first place. Either way it happened, the fed considered it a success and a good tool to deal with issues like that, and all we can do is find better solutions.

>In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

>This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

>>16607715
Shorting is dumb if you think this fearmongering is legitimate obviously long 2 3 and 5 year treasuries

>>16610917
Incorrect use of misnomer and repeating Zoszars worst case scenario does not mean you have domain expertise. Cringe!

>>16610917
Repo is not reserves. Repo is repurchase arguments so that banks can pledge collateral for cash. This is pathetic analysis

>>16607715
>An appointed civil servant repealed legislation
>my right wing retard friends are off the hook
not so fast moron

>>16611159
If you want to save your money then yeah. Better return is cash. Even better return is straight shorting. Risk adjusted returns. If you actually have a portfolio 2% max short. I made quite a bit of money shorting kre end of last year.

>>16607715
call jg wentworth...
8
7
7 CASH NOW!

>>16610963
>uses terms like brainlet and virtue signaling unironically
>thinks math can solve every problem, but doesn't understand why his peers dislike him
>thinks the stupid are poor when there are industries that strive to find the dumbest people to make rich, while many uni professors/phds barely scrape by

You're the definition of "sheeple" bruv... You are a coder at a quant fund, you think you understand economics, and you clearly misunderstand what repos are >>16610917

Market participants ARE closely watching the repo market - there have been countless articles on everything from zerohedge to cnbc to bloomberg. You didn't stumble on some contrived topic that will lead to a 2008 type crisis. Inflation is the only thing fund managers are concerned about with respect to repo operations - whether it hits consumers, real estate, or the stock market, so they know where to put their money.

>>16611185
You think cash can have a return - you clearly have no experience in finance outside of your bitchboy job at a two-bit fund. Cash by definition is net-loss due to inflation.

>>16611166
>>16611178
mis·no·mer
/misˈnōmər/
noun
a wrong or inaccurate use of a name or term.
"to call this “neighborhood policing” would be a misnomer"

You used an incorrect term.

The banks are currently lending from repo to keep their cash at reserve requirements.

Am I hurting your feelings boomer? You seem to have used an ancient meme, "cringe", is the dementia getting to you? Those gosh darn kids and their fortnite dont know nothing about finance ahahahaha

>>16611241
Sure faggot, whatever helps you sleep at night. Your correct, you should strive to be as dumb as fucking humanly possible. That's a winners strategy. And yes the peak of intellect is a PhD, you got me, read like an open book.

Now to sum up all the things wrong with your post:

>doesn't even know what a money market fund is
>doesnt know about collateral cash flow
>thinks it's all about inflation
>doesnt allocate cash to buy the dip
>doesnt realize reserves can be lent out overnight into repo or borrowed from to meet reserves

Its pretty small but that sums up. This is why you're poor.

>>16607715
They cant print forever.....when is the fkn dip nigger stop the rhetoric

>>16611307
What a typical arrogant /biz/ poster. Do you think your special? You think just because you know a bunch of stupid terms that you're better than anyone here? Tell me. Please. Tell me why you think that way. I'd love to hear it. And for the record, I've got a masters in economics. Really chaps my ass that you nitwits come on here and chastise anyone with your vague and dismissive attitude without ever having even argued against the actual philosophy being discussed. Lets hear your 'economic thought' you yellow-bellied shit posting psued. Go right ahead... there is no better place than here and no better time than now. Lemme guess, you like keynes? Or are you some laissez-faire extreme capitalist? Read a few quotes from milton friedman and now you're the expert on money and how to run an economy? Lay it on me pal. I got all day. I'm gonna be here in this thread questioning everything you say... everything you do. Every post you make. Every feeble attempt you try. So you got two choices my man... you either put up or you shut up. Whats it gonna be?

>>16611185
No... longing 2 3 or 5 year treasury futures has better risk reward than shorting. I just gave you a gold nugget intern, go ask your bosses what I am talking about. Futures offer leverage unlevered 2 yr treasuries are pointless

>>16611245
Cringe

>>16611307
lmao you're too fun, go back to watching wsj and bloomberg vids, "buy the dip," and be happy with your $150k/year job while lil yachty, pewdiepie, and lebron out-earn you in a week

>>16611369
disregarding 15yo modern monetary theory guru op for a moment: why 2 3 or 5s vs 6mo with the same return? just to park cash while things blow over?

>>16610692
Explain to me why you think QE is NOT bad

Although I am thoroughly enjoying the shit flinging in this thread, I will leave this here in hopes that it might raise the level of discourse.

>>16611415
you're on 4chan retard

>>16611368
Lmao, I know I'm better then everyone here. Specifically the fact I know I can't run an economy on my own is just one reason I know I'm better. Do you suppose you're a genius? Is that why are you laying out the "good will hunting" schtick, trying to lure me into an area your more knowledgable on so you can feel smart? Fuck your game nigger, you ask me a straight question and i will answer the best i can, im not spouting vauge bullshit about economic philosophy I don't care much for in the first place just so you can stroke your own ego.

>>16611369
Oh god what, you're going to tell me about quality flight and fucking bond valuations compared to interest rates or some shit? I bought EDV october last year did you? The feds literally talking about inflation for the first time in half a decade and you want to tell me to take on huge interest risk in case the market crashes? Let me pose you this, the fed keeps fund rates low but inflation goes up q2, with increasing foreign sales. Best case scenario I get fucking 5% off a bond because rates go to 0, whoopidie fucking do, worst case scenario bonds are in a blow off top, inflation starts overheating, and i just lost 15% on that same bond and am bagholding until maturity. Please enlighten me as to how a leveraged bond going nowhere is good in a recession when i could be making 20% off of shorts minimum?

>>16611431
literally central point refutation

>>16611383
Kek, I'm the "modern monetary theory" guru arguing systematic risk is still present and presenting you with information supporting it. Your a fucking genius aren't you. Hey genius, did you read the OP at all? Care to look up the feds stance on the credit cycle for me really quick? Really quick i promise, 5 minutes, look it up and post it here.

You don't even know what the fuck your argument is, jesus christ. you're literally just arguing to argue. I understand some finance concepts you don't, so now I'm some faggot in tie who doesnt understand how it really works mannnn, is that really what your thinking?

>>16611456
>responding to pasta

>>16611431
Touché nigger

>>16610917
You don’t know what you are talking about kid

>>16611431
Hard kek

Ctrl+f: 'link' = 0 results

Why should I care. Don't bother responding as im shutting this tab.

You diminish inflation here: >>16611307
Then talk about inflation here: >>16611456
You lack consistency and haven't promoted a single argument other than "QE not QE is bad and the largest financial system in the world is unsustainable." Congrats: you figured out what econ majors have been spouting for decades.

>>16611479
>I'm the "modern monetary theory" guru arguing systematic risk is still present and presenting you with information supporting it
You don't know what systematic risk means if you think it's "still present"

>>16611479
pls post more of these threads more frequently. dont bother with the brainlets.

>>16611519
based, hope 2 c u in the citadel fren

>>16607715
Ok, so what about my linkies?

what does any of this have to do with chainlink? go back to /pol

>>16611689
Stfu how knows his shit ask the right question fggt

So OP

When you think shit will dip ? Not exact dates we understNd just approximate

>>16611402
a 5 yr treasury future will increase in price more than a 2 year treasury future with equal interest rate decreases due to the duration. This is called price sensitivity. If you thought interest rates would move 1% lower for fed funds through 5 yr treasuries you’d buy 5 yr treasuries for the biggest return. 2 and 3 yr treasury future contracts are standardized at 200k face value of bonds per contract. 5yr through 30 yr is 100k per contract. You can get huge leverage with futures, you only need 2800 or so to buy 1 contract, maintenance margin is slightly less, but you will lose all your money if the trade goes .1% against you with max leverage.

>>16611402
My bond position is 100% 2 year treasuries right now because I expect the FED to increase their stimulus from this repo expansion into QE and QE will start with the purchase of 2 year notes. If the entire yield curve goes toward zero 10 and 30 yrs will do way better but if the curve steepens due to inflation or fed policy then 2 years will outperform so I like the risk reward of 2 years much better than other durations. 3s and 5s are alright too

>>16611712
you think fed will keep lowering rates? from trump bullying powell? idk, i don't see america going negative - we'll let EZ fuck around with that and watch what happens before we test the waters

>>16611781
Fed funds has a 90%+ historical correlation with the 2 year treasury. Fed funds and 2 year treasuries are trading a little over 1.5% right now. I am just trading 4 more rate cuts I will be out of this trade by the time short rates are close to zero percent. I have no interest in trading around negative rates. This repo crisis leads me to believe the FED will continue to cut and will start QE4. It’s very unlikely that the fed raises rates anytime soon due to this repo situation so I view it as an asymmetric setup to which I can apply leverage. I expect to 3x on the trade assuming that I am correct and fed funds through 2 years gets below 0.5%

>>16611837
I see genuine inflation in the next year or two that will pause or reverse cuts

>>16611704
Lol

>>16611535
Inflation is not the bigger picture, in the short term at least. Inflation is not why repo melted down, it's not what makes market moves. Long term that's debatable, for now inflation doesn't matter. When inflation does matter is when your making highly leveraged plays in the bond market and a slight increase could bump yields up enough to rek you. That's not flip flopping that's two different scenarios. Try again.

Furthermore your correct I haven't discovered anything, I'm simply trying to pinpoint what areas in the short term I see movements happening, and the causes. I'm glad im in line with what economists have been saying, that means I've come to the same conclusion based on different circumstances. Maybe some fundamentals do still exist in the market huh? This is absolutely rich coming from somebody who assumed i was a zerohedge doomer by the way and slamming me for it. If you want to see some actually contractdicting viewpoints maybe look further up in the thread where your slamming zerohedge and then look at your sentence again where you say I'm just repeating what every economist says.

Also please, enlighten me. What does systematic risk mean according to you?

>>16611537
>>16611704
Not in a gay way, but honestly thank you anons. Explaining and defending myself post after post gets tiresome, it's nice to see when people appreciate it.

Approximate when the market could dip depends, depending on manufacturing could be q1 or q2 next year. Definitively I believe repo will come to a head soon and the fed will be required to either cut it or implement more long term solutions. Sentiment is still mixed from my position. This thread has been a good indicator though, if i posted this about 3 months during the media blitz on the economy everyone would be agreeing with me. I think the early bears are getting burned right now, I'd watch sentiment very carefully the next two quarters, people who got out of the market in august are starting to feel sick its not going down. After chinese new year is when I would pay close attention to extremely bullish sentiment.

>>16611712
>>16611774
>>16611837
I would like to point out that I did in fact read you like a book. I knew you were thinking you were about to school me with yield till maturity. That's not how funds work though, and for my personal investments I would rather just trade forex at that point.

>>16611982
Fed owns this and they know it, they’ll provide liquidity until it blows over. Non issue in a month or two. Upper managers of banks are still permashook from 08

What do you all do for a living that you're able to read up and focus on all of this hocus pocus?

>>16611519
>>16611628
>>16611689
lol at the bagholders screeching

>>16612151
Not screeching, just asking. What about my linkies?

>>16612188
Try one of the 30 active link threads bagholder.

>>16612200
You stupid fuck get a life.

>>16612027
Blessings and the best of luck to you. It's not often we get someone of your caliber. What you share is important so we could get a sense of where the markets are heading

Everything you said is what I told friends and family. So yes you are right to certain degree dont forget about biz dont be a stranger bro

To all listen to him and make what you can

No one is perfect but this guy is close

Pay attention

Bumping for trash ..... this thread is juicy

>>16612200
This one is more relevant, my question was for op anyways.

>>16607715
OK Boomer.

In the run-up to the 2008 crash, especially 06-08, repo operations were happening, but many of the treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities being offered by the banks were not being accepted by the fed as collateral. This year is different because the fed is accepting almost everything the banks throw their way.

>>16611880
That’s the risk to my trade to be sure but I’m taking the other side of the bet. If there was extreme inflation the FED would hike rates you’re correct.
>>16612058
Gibberish. Go to bed kiddo

>>16611479
Based. Make /biz/ /biz/ again. Not a bonehead screaming Board.

>>16608298
>On the global stage at least BRICS has been posing a serious threat to us economic hegemony.

no it hasn't, and you revealed your hand too early chang