/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16423289
you've been saying this for two years anon
it's all so tiresome

In 2008 I was too young and had no tools to make it.
2020 is the financial collapse opportunity of your lifetime.

>>16423289
Said the boomer for the 5000th time this year

>>16423289
This year was the turning point. Either we were going to have a financial crisis or another ten years of growth and then a crisis of unseen proportions. It so happened that the second scenario is occurring.

>>16423289
>be me
>very close friend of mine works with wife of lawyer that represents DB
>said wife gets documents from lawyer to make a leak about financial colapse of EU /EURO 2 months ago
>leak is immidatly wiped and removed from pastebin/sites its released at that moment
>said wife and lawyer migrate to scandinavian a week later

if any of the infos turn up true the lookout is an increase in food cost, some staples being unavailable and major banks on colapse route (just for the EU in the first stage) global waves are hard to predict


i guess we will see

>>16423324
>Either we were going to have a financial crisis or another ten years of growth and then a crisis of unseen proportions.
That’s exactly what you faggots said in 2008. We have already had the illusion of growth for more than a decade now.

>>16423324
>Look it was either gonna happen then, or it was gonna to coast along until... now. no wait--now! Now, NOW i say!

>>16423303
That's because the banks are doing everything they can to stay alive and prolong the inevitable. You really should be paying attention to the articles posted here.

Zombie bank

>>16423440
And your prediction?

>>16423289
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zX6nRPSnwUw

>>16423289
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eNnDcRGVhY

>>16423652
>>16423661
What the fuck is this nigger shit?

FUD by Jews so you wont buy in at discount prices

Also newfags listen:

These same faggots on this board claimed TRTL couldn't been sold a year ago. It was easy as fuck to mine and now its on KuCoin

DYOR

>>16423303
zerohedge does so for over a decade now

They'll likely get bailed out, in which case the EUR will sharply plummet.

>>16423289
PLEASE GOD END THIS WICKED WORLD

ΠΑΤΕΡ ΗΜΩΝ Ο ΕΝ ΤΟΙΣ ΟΥΡΑΝΟΙΣ ΑΓΙΑΣΘΗΤΩ ΤΟ ΟΝΟΜΑ ΣΟΥ ΕΛΘΕΤΩ Η ΒΑΣΙΛΕΙΑ ΣΟΥ ΓΕΝΗΘΗΤΩ ΤΟ ΘΕΛΗΜΑ ΣΟΥ, ΩΣ ΕΝ ΟΥΡΑΝΩ ΚΑΙ ΕΠΙ ΤΗΣ ΓΗΣ ΤΟΝ ΑΡΤΟΝ ΗΜΩΝ ΤΟΝ ΕΠΙΟΥΣΙΟΝ ΔΟΣ ΗΜΙΝ ΣΗΜΕΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΑΦΕΣ ΗΜΙΝ ΤΑ ΟΦΕΙΛΗΜΑΤΑ ΗΜΩΝ, ΩΣ ΚΑΙ ΗΜΕΙΣ ΑΦΙΕΜΕΝ ΤΟΙΣ ΟΦΕΙΛΕΤΑΙΣ ΗΜΩΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΗ ΕΙΣΕΝΕΓΚΗΣ ΗΜΑΣ ΕΙΣ ΠΕΙΡΑΣΜΟΝ, ΑΛΛΑ ΡΥΣΑΙ ΗΜΑΣ ΑΠΟ ΤΟΥ ΠΟΝΗΡΟΥ. ΑΜΗΝ.

>>16423289
i watched cnbc a few times over the last decade. every time another douche sat there telling the audience to "short deutsche bank" because they "will crash". blablabla. db is so damn much undervalued but you'll figure this out soon enough.

>>16423739
>NOOOOO YOU CANT JUST GIVE GREECE MONEY AND EXPECT TO GET IT BACK I MEAN GOLDMAN SACHS AUDITED THEM

>>16423828
>i watched cnbc a few times over the last decade. every time another douche sat there telling the audience to "short lehman bros" because they "will crash". blablabla. lb is so damn much undervalued but you'll figure this out soon enough.

I would drop a couple thousand on DB puts expiring next year but I think the euro will bail them out and i'll get fucked so I don't bother

>>16423412
any more info?

sources? docs?

>>16423289
No, Goldman just bought $50 billion in toxic assets from them. Essentially the US tax payer is bailing them out.

Total collapse is the goal if you unironically want to make it and you're under 30 years old.

>>16424022
Source?

>>16424413
This, it’s going to be the greatest wrath generation opportunity of our lifetimes

lmao, there won't be another 2008/2009 for another 30 years

>>16423846
what a stupid fucking comparison lmao

Asset, Liability, and Debt and Derivative Investment Network

>confirmed

>>16423314
This. I have intent to get into the market hard. Gonna wait a decent chunk of time after the stock market beguns collapsing. Dont want to buy too early and it keeps going down.

>>16423314
I cashed out 70% of my stocks in the last 2 weeks for massive profits. I bought in December 2018 mostly.

Now, I see opportunities in the oil & gas sector. There are large established companies trading at 10X cash flow because everyone is worried about oversupply of oil.

Now if oil drops to $30-40 on this fear, you could potentially acquire small cap oil companies for 4-5X their projected cash flows with lots of hard assets and potential upside.

Billionaires like Buffett, Icahn, Sam Zell are already piling in slowly, but you won't see any big acquisitions until we have a larger drop.

Btw WTI Crude dropped 5% today, so the party may have just gotten started.

Do your research and be ready to buy. This is the only sector that you can make massive gains with low risk atm.

>>16424475
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-restructuring/deutsche-bank-sells-50-billion-in-assets-to-goldman-sachs-amid-overhaul-source-idUSKBN1Y11EL

>>16424487
But we are just in time for the next 1929s

>>16424022
That's true, but let me explain why that doesn't actually save anything in the long run.

First of all, Deutsche's total toxic leverage is gigantic. Much, much more than $50 billion. Since a lot of these securities/swaps are bi/trilateral and never get exposed to any kind of open market, nobody really knows. But optimistic estimates say at least $1.5 trillion.

Next, realize that they cannot sell off just the bad assets. They have to package them into larger "capital release units" that contain a ton of GOOD assets along with them, so that the unit as a whole is shielded enough that a separate party like Goldman can justify buying them. Nobody is going to buy just the shit because you're guaranteed to lose money. Package it up into a not-as-shit hotdog though, and now you have a justification to buy the unit as a whole because the good assets within are actually making money.

Which brings me to my next point. Because they need to get rid of good, money-making assets in order to get rid of the toxic assets, DB loses significant amounts of money in these deals. In fact in the recent Goldman deal the total unit contained $150 billion in good assets along with the $50 billion in toxic assets. That's why DB is hemorrhaging money so quickly (pic related), but they have no choice. If they don't, they really will blow up. And all that was to get rid of just $50 billion out of well over a TRILLION (with low estimates) remaining.

This isn't even the first such deal they've made either! Back in July they got rid of $300 billion in toxic assets and the downwind costs in losing the packaged good profit-making assets along with them is estimated at somewhere around $2 billion. Again that is reflected in pic related.

Cont.

>>16424022
>>16424561
So it cost them $2 billion to offload $300 billion into CRUs, they just made a deal to offload $50 billion, and they have another $1.45 or so to get rid of? It seems mathematically and logically impossible that they are going to be able to do that without first blowing up. The valuation of the company is already down 95% from when this turmoil started, and every quarter gets worse. They also have a similar problem to WeWork in that they literally cannot fire people quickly enough because of Germany labor laws. Not to mention that these deals are extremely difficult to make because there is NO MARKET for these assets. Nobody wants them unless DB sweetens the deal by including a bunch of good profit-making assets along with them in a CRU.

Also, these derivatives aren't magically gone after DB gets rid of them. They're now just on JPM's books, or Goldman's, or Morgan Stanley's, or BNP Paribas'. They're still just as toxic and at risk of blowing up.

You can call this doomposting, but these are just the facts. As they are forced to take billions in revenue losses every single quarter to get rid of these assets, the valuation of the company as a whole goes down and down as more stockholders dump. Something like 30% loss every single year for over a decade? It will almost certainly be bankrupt or bailed out long before they are able to spin off enough of these "bad banks".

>>16424565
*another $1.45 trillion

>>16423880

of course not, its schizo fiction. only a tinfoil hat retard would claim pastebin immediately removes documents lmao

>>16424561
Thanks for the detailed analysis, I had no idea good assets were sold as well. The media isn’t telling the whole story.

>>16424596
Say that Jesus Christ is Lord or go back to Tel Aviv, shill

>itt

>>16424561
>>16424565
By the way, this is an excellent recent video on Deutsche Bank: https://youtu.be/gVejnTjkj_Q

Watch the video, then read the corresponding blogpost with all the data source links, then watch the video again. Lynette Zang has been doing this since the 80s, she knows her shit. Highly recommended channel.

the reason why we had no dooomsday yet is because the economy did well, mostly due to china going into debt big time.

we are now at a turning point and it definitly wont go on just another 10 years. you have one year to accumulate gold and bitcoin. gold wont be available anymore shortly after shtf

>>16423303
>two years
Try six

>>16424534
>tfw work in the energy sector

>>16424561
>>16424565
This is some enlightening shit. So they need to get it off their books to prevent blowing up, but the more they do the more money they lose thereby increasing the odds of blowing up anyway

>>16424714
kek

The “system” doesn’t want DB to collapse, and almost everyone in power would be inconvenienced. What makes you think the ECB or Merkel herself won’t step in to keep it running at any cost?

>>16424022
How do you figure that Goldman is the US taxpayer? Because of the bailout loans they got and paid back plus interest?

So you think Goldman can only afford to do this because it’s easy to take risks when you’re too big to fail?

>>16424549
This

>>16424561
Damn. Great post

>>16423289
sure we can wait another 50 years

>>16424835
Good fucjing post anon, thanks

>>16424883
>the reason why we had no dooomsday yet is because the economy did well, mostly due to china going into debt big time
Pretty much this.
>you have one year to accumulate gold and bitcoin
I think with things spiraling out of control in China, we may be months away. Have any anons done any research on Douchebank's Chinese holdings (particularly in the finance sector)? Chinese financial system is showing significant signs of stress.

>>16425785
Kek I saw that article and also didn’t bother reading it but filed away the headline in my mind.

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH DEUTSCHE BANK YOU IDIOTS!! THIS IS BUSINESS AS USUAL!! THEY WONT LET IT FAIL! THEY WONT! BUY THIS DIP YOU FAGGOTS! BUY!! BUY!!!!!!!!!!! HURRY UP OR YOURE MISSING THE CHANCE OF A LIFETIME LIKE A BUNCH OF FAGGGSS!!!

>>16425815
I think you’re mostly correct. If I banked with DB I wouldn’t be worried. But desperation could lead way to scandal.

I wouldn’t buy or short.

>>16423289
>tfw slowly buying up the DB US adr for months before everyone catches on that it’ll be the JPM of Europe in 10 years

German government will never, ever allow shareholders to be diluted. Shes a 10x over the next few years. Sewing is based and is going to nail the turnaround.

>>16425717
>What makes you think the ECB or Merkel herself won’t step in to keep it running at any cost?
what makes you think that merkel can react in time to a blowup of db? And even if there would be political commissars and officers inside every db tower, how would they go about it anyway, considering the 1.2 trillion figure is true?

>>16425994
Gl with that

>>16426002
Now that we know banks can collapse like Stearns, we’re much less likely to sit back while it happens. The EU might be too impotent to keep GB from leaving (and that remains to be certain) but they can’t sit idly by while DB collapses and takes the German economy with it.

>>16425994
>German government will never, ever allow shareholders to be diluted
What makes you say that? What’s to stop them from issuing more shares, having those get bought up by German pensions, central banks, and institutions worldwide?

>>16426025
the number might be too big to just pay it off and bai it out, even for Germany. They won't risk Germany just to save a bank even if it's an important bank.
The best they could do is sacrifice a smaller unimportant nation to soak up the damage, like they did with greece, portugal etc. so the currency and greater economic system can survive.
>they can’t sit idly by while DB collapses
db already collapses at slow motion since 10 years anyway and so far they pretty much can't stop it.
Your sheeplike believe in the all powerfullness of the state and corrupt apparatschiks who will just hand wave away the problems is ill informed and hereby dismissed.

>>16425994
Smart anon. Idk how to read but I see a lot of pink wojacks whenever DB is mentioned. A genius and great man once said get greedy when others are fearful. Time to all in on DB

>>16423289
banks are absolute store your money in a smart contract with 50% yield instead

>cooms

Yeah you heard right. FERRUM.

>>16426294
>apparatchniks
..... rossenr?

So give it to me straight. We're long overdue for a recession of some sort, but are you saying with how interlinked DB is with all the other US banks, a collapse overseas could trigger not a recession, but an actual depression if not outright collapse of the US economy? Is this hyperbolic or is there actually a real possibility of this happening?

>>16426429
There’s always, ALWAYS a possibility that some unforeseen danger will tear thugs apart and bring it all crumbling down.

Because of the financial crisis, recency bias has us all watching the banks. And there may be reason for concern. But 10 years ago we would have been watching for Islamic terrorists and 40 years ago we would have been more concerned about nuclear weapons.

Those are still risks btw, global nuclear war is still a real possibility.

>>16426429
Also “we’re overdue for a recession” isn’t really a reason to have one. They say economic expansions don’t end because of old age.

Buying DB 2020 puts?

Good idea or no?

>>16423465

what articles?

>>16424475

buying what? crypto, gold, land?

>>16427972
no, here's my plan
>load up on ethots with no marketable skills (i.e. sugar daddy with needs and sexy ideas for rent)
>buy NewPort cartons for the blacks who fiend and probably some Tims in cold storage
>buy SSRIs in bulk. Everyone is hooked on their happy pills and these are happy times, so you can see what will happen in the not so happy times
>freeze some of my seed in the freezer for when I become a god

>>16423702
he's been right for a decade?
based

>>16424534
oil company projected cash flows are wrong, solar panels are going to boom.
I know that sounds like a boomer thing to say but solar cells are going to get a large share of the market pretty soon.

>>16428857
>oil company projected cash flows are wrong, solar panels are going to boom.
I was hearing this 9 years ago, zoomer

>>16424565
> Next, realize that they cannot sell off just the bad assets. They have to package them into larger "capital release units" that contain a ton of GOOD assets along with them, so that the unit as a whole is shielded enough that a separate party like Goldman can justify buying them. Nobody is going to buy just the shit because you're guaranteed to lose money. Package it up into a not-as-shit hotdog though, and now you have a justification to buy the unit as a whole because the good assets within are actually making money.
I wonder what could go wrong. It's not this has been tried before!

>>16428857
inconsistent sources of energy aren't going to boom before we master energy storage

>>16423289
Bump

>>16424565
> Next, realize that they cannot sell off just the bad assets. They have to package them into larger "capital release units" that contain a ton of GOOD assets along with them, so that the unit as a whole is shielded enough that a separate party like Goldman can justify buying them. Nobody is going to buy just the shit because you're guaranteed to lose money. Package it up into a not-as-shit hotdog though, and now you have a justification to buy the unit as a whole because the good assets within are actually making money.
What could go wrong! It's not like this has been tried before!

>>16428884
>>16428863
lithium battery capacities recently doubled, organic solar cells are in the process of having a big breakthrough (no I'm not talking about perovskites).
It's just the trend, electric cars are becoming more popular too (Nissan leaf for example, very affordable and a good car, more access point popping up too).
Oil will obviously never go away but it is declining.

>>16423289
what happens to loans if they collapse? If my loan will vanish I will sit there and eat popcorn

Deutsche is very interesting and I've been trying to wrap my head around it

Bull case: it is trading at 30% book value, new management, restructuring plan. it hasn't been this cheap in 150 years

Bear case: legacy assets and derivatives that absolutely no one can make any sense of. Last annual report was all about risk, risk management, risk assets. Also huge losses, competitive environment is tough to make money in. If risks come true then 60B equity is not enough.

>>16425717
Look up REPO, I bet you Goldman is getting bailed out daily.

>>16428926
>Oil will obviously never go away but it is declining.

repeating the peak supply meme.

>>16423440
were you born after 2008 or something?

>>16423289
it cannot fail anymore, germany and france will force the entire eurozone to bail them out with the new ESM mechanism (700 billions)
i wish it could fail earlier

reminder that the only reason we got out of 2008 was a huge credit injection from china literally lifting the entire world out of depression
and now that china's fucked (see recent bank runs and pending tewoo commodities bankruptcy) they won't be able to keep us out of the shit any more
reminder: 2008 never ended, this bull market is just the dead cat bounce to the 2008 - 20XX megapression

>>16425717
>he doesn't know
Fed has been increasing monetary circulation since September.

>>16429983
Why would France pay for a german bank ?
Bailing out DB would cost at least 5 trillion €
Printing this amount of money in 1 day would cause hyperinflation.
The yellow vests would this time surely get Macron for this theft.

>>16426294
they will force the eurozone citizens to pay for it
that's literally what's written in the new ESM
https://www.esm.europa.eu

you can imagine how i feel paying taxes for amhed shitskin sons invading europe and to bail out all these private bank playing casino games with people money

>>16430029
french banks are no better retard

>>16424561
And the guys at GS are stupid assburgers? Nice try doomerfag. Better you shitpost on /pol/.

>>16430105
0/10 troll, try harder next time

>>16430105
>And the guys at GS are stupid assburgers?
No? Did you not read my post? The overall CRU contains enough profit-making good assets to potentially offset the toxic ones. Both parties understand the risk involved which is why they are being sold at such a low price and loss for Deutsche.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-restructuring/deutsche-bank-sells-50-billion-in-assets-to-goldman-sachs-amid-overhaul-source-idUSKBN1Y11EL

>Goldman purchased the debt at a deep discount and believes it can make a modest profit on the deal, according to a fourth person familiar with the matter.

>>16426428
gut sacks zick zack zick zack!!1

>>16430154
Okay. My mistake when I got your post wrong. This makes sense of course.

>>16424714
Underrated post

>>16430054
I still would not pay for another state's bank.
DB has 50 trillions in derivatives. Compared to that the french banks are nothing.

HOLY SHIT

TURN ON CNN

>>16431271
you cheeky fucker

The first thing I'm going to when the global collapse happens is gloat.

My cynicism tells me Merkel would do absolutely anything to save DB, but my further cynicism tells me that there's no money left to
o bail them out with.

Which to listen to...

test

>>16432425
Same, it's going to be so sweet

I don't understand why you idiots are talking total economic collapse and are simultaneously very eager to buy in cheap. What exactly do you think you are buying

>>16423412
Croatia is already there mate

And you people still think it's a coincidence that German banks are going to be the first ones to hold cryptocurrencies... which Garlinghouse predicted would happen within a year at the end of 2018

Fucking zombies are still asleep on XRP when it's been as clear as day for 3 years

>>16423289
Everything is fine, shut your fucking impure goyim mouth

>>16434007
Literally nobody wants to buy DB though

>>16423303
>>16423316
they can stay solvent for an absurd amount of time and LARP that everything is ok
it's a classic boomer trap

>>16434633
cripple is not a cryptocurrency and the fact that you think it is a cryptocurrency is hilarious

>>16434970
it's a remittance/transfer system.

Pic related is going tits up first along with the CCP

>>16434970
You actually used "cripple" and therefore can never be taken even slightly seriously

>>16435020
The tokens shouldn't be held by anyone. If you need to transfer money from one country to another then it's a convert your dollars to XRP and send it, then convert back to the desired currency in another country. Bitcoin is the real digital gold. XRP is bank to bank settlements of value. Tx's do get sent at the fraction of the cost and faster than Bitcoin.

>>16435058
Very possible. Reminder that if you buy gold stack physical, do not buy paper contract scams like GLD/SLV. Guess who is the majority """trustee""" behind the GLD? https://youtu.be/bqoQ9DxMrw0?t=386

why is the stock flatlining like never before durin this year?

>>16432722
Where is Germany gonna get the euros to bail out 1.5 tril?

>>16435957
It's not just this year, it has been going down an annualized average of 25-30% every single year since the global financial crisis which was never fixed since the debt wasn't ever deleveraged and bad companies weren't allowed to die like they would in a free market. Especially with ZIRP and NIRP these banks are nothing but zombies

>>16436003
This, it's not even Germany's decision, they don't control the European Central Bank

>>16436003
>>16436063
Actually, I know this is tinfoil and fucking stupid but:

DB holds all of Trump's loans right? Doesn't that make it a matter of national security for the US to make sure they at least unwind orderly, right?