/biz/ - Business & Finance

we could easily go another 3-5 years without recession

>There will be a recession in 2016!!
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp

>There will be a recession in 2017!!
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/get-ready-economic-recession-coming-2017

>There will be a recession in 2018!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/theres-more-than-60-chance-of-a-global-recession-within-the-next-18-months-economist-says.html

>>15750482
wrong, the economy is a house of cards right now and one event could send the whole thing tumbling down. there is also political instability and civil unrest multiplying the risk of a recession.

we'll enter a recession within 18 months

>>15750468
definitely
2020 is going to be huge

>>15750468
>>15750558
the euro might collapse next year. german industries are in the shitter and we already had a quarter year with a decrease in economic power. if the numbers on the first of october point at red numbers again, we are officially in a recession. thats 3 days from now.

now, recessions arent a problem, if your interest rates are around 5%. the ezb interest rates were defacto negative since 2008, meaning that companys which, in a normal market, would go bankrupt, were kept alive and could refinance easily.
the euro crisis 2013 led to the interest rates going down to 0, which prevented the mediterranian european countries from bankrupting. they could refinance themselves with that money. but since 2013 they created even more debt, which leads to the whole problem: the ezb couldnt raise interest rates without half of the eurozone bankrupting instantly.

so we are now at a negative interest rate, with a germany whose economy is tanking for nearly half a year already, with multiple countries going bankrupt if the interest rate should rise and with private companys which should have went bankrupt long ago. europe also imported huge amounts of social unrest potential in the past 40 years. if this isnt the receipt for a crisis, then i dont know what is.

Banks are lowering interest rates.
Some of the major players in finance just ten years ago like AIG and Deutsche bank stock is down to 7. It won't be long

>>15750606
" the economy is a house of cards right now "
weve literally been saying this for decades
you guys dont realize they have ways to prop this shit up for years

>>15750696
>you guys dont realize they have ways to prop this shit up for years
tell me one which doesnt lead to a currency reset

>>15750696
I agree it may take a while. But right now things are so efficient bad ideas also propagate faster, it's a matter of time until antifa or some other other shills meme something into the government that fucks things up hard and fast. For example seeing how global warming is talked about so much one of three scenarios will happen:

1) The hype dies down and people move into taking about other things

2) Carbon taxes will crash the economy with no survivors since most countries are already in stagnation mode for a few years.

3) We force chinks to reduce CO2 and literally cause a war.

2/3 of those scenarios don't end well and this is the timeline that memed Trump. The matter of fact is no one can really predict the future, but the outcomes don't look very bright. Even if google cracked quantum computing or something else happens that can keep the shitty economy going for lots of years, it can take a while to materialize so I think it's more likely something bad will happen

>>15750558
they are doing this on purpose. if you warn every year people will start to ignore and YES

this time is different, all indicators in existance point to a recession within 12-18 month.

banks in europe are done, the very moment stocks pay less dividends their last source of income is gone, traditional money lending doesnt yield any anymore, you cant raise fees indefinitly, because customers just go to another bank.

shtf next year, no matter what central banks are going to do

It will start next month

>>15750468
>>15750618
>>15750606
>>15750696
Correct

>>/biz/thread/S419088#p419113

>>15750696

If they have the level of control to prop the economy up, they also have the level of control to run it into the toilet if they wanted to.

The more I look historically, the more I see that recessions were an engineered thing that happens. Historically, that was when the Fed increased interest rates to counteract inflation, and eventually the increased cost of money led to an equities/job crunch.

Thing is: there have been so many deflationary factors in the system since 2000 due to outsourcing, increasing the supply of domestic labor, lower and lower costs of manufactured goods, low minimum wages, etc etc, that the inflationary pressures don't exist anymore.

So yeah, I'm not sure where we stand. If Trump is serious about this China Trade War, the resulting decoupling has the ability to really hurt the US tech industry, particularly Apple.

>>15750468
It starts next month. Screencap this.

>>15750468
damn, the 70's sucked

>>15750862

Also: a US-China decoupling has the ability to stoke inflationary pressures on manufactured goods. Those manufactured goods were very important to government inflation indexes for keeping official rates of inflation low, but if Chinese manufacturing was cut off there would be no hiding it at all.

If we got over 2% inflation, or moved up to 3%, 4% or 5% inflation, the Fed would be FORCED to stop easing and hike interest rates. Essentially, it would be a stagflation scenario of the 1970s repeating itself that could only be rectified by an astronomically high interest rate that would save the dollar, but would cause a deep, deep recession in the process.

But this is all intellectual masturbation.

>>15750468
Australia has not had a recession for nearly 30 years.

This could also happen in the USA.

Nobody knows the future.

>>15750897
its what 2020 is going to look like. endless crab market.

>>15750956
because china had no recession for 30 years

>>15750696
>decades
brainlet doesn't even understand boom-bust economy.
We went into irrational exuberance as soon as we went positive on job growth a couple years ago. dotcom bust 2.0 literally coming q2 2020 - q3 2021 cap this post.

>>15750956

They argue here that we've avoided a technical recession because of population increases, but on a per capita basis we've had 3 recessions.

One in 2000-2001 (which I believe was true, just look at the AUD around that time).

One in 2005-2006 (this one caught me off guard )

One in 2015-2016 (also true, probably during the Q3, Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 considering commodity prices).

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/september/australia-28-year-expansion

>This discrepancy between the growth rate of per capita GDP and the growth rate of GDP implies that population growth has been a key factor for Australia’s economic expansion. A rising population increases the size of the economy, and therefore total output increases, which is reflected in the level of GDP.

>However, the fact that we do see economic downturns in per capita terms means that population is growing faster than GDP. For nearly 40 years, Australia has had a higher population growth rate than other industrialized economies, as seen in the figure below.

>>15750919
If the U.S. decouples from China they're fucked. We have them all our best blueprints and they have all the means of production including raw material harvesting rights in all the right places. The only reason America still has an economy is because of culturally relevant "apps," shitty cars that no foreign country will buy, some wood and gas, and tech that is stationed in Ireland.

>>15750956
>Australia has not had a recession for nearly 30 years.
rode on the back of China growth and MASSIVE domestic Bank over leveraging. This has ended.

There’s this thing called the “business cycle “
Any reasonably intelligent observer can see the next global meltdown only 3-18 months away

Please get an education before stinking up the thread with the contents of your soiled baby diaper.

>>15751018

Also, key thing here about recessions is that once the general public knows that they are in one, they are less likely to spend and will automatically save more of their wage. This in turn exacerbates the recession as all the consumption is driven by debt these days.

It's behavioral psychology.

That's why recessions are always pronounced in retrospect.

I steadfastly believe that recessions are only pronounced when those that doing the pronouncing have something to gain from doing so. That could have partisan implications.

Observe Janet Yellen's "no recessions again within our lifetime" in 2017 to "the economy is weaker than the Fed thinks it is" in 2019.

>>15751027

Thing is, if America doesn't decouple from China they're also fucked, because the Chinese can't be stopped from becoming the largest economy in the world without direct confrontation.

On a per capita basis, yeah Americans might be richer, but nominally the Chinese economy will be bigger and there will be more rich people in China than the USA.

Hell, there are already more billionaires and millionaires in China than USA right now.

The only way America can stop this is to contain the situation by weaning American companies off the Chinese supply chain, and getting as much of the rest of the world on board with containing China economically and militarily. That includes Russia, Asia, Europe, India and Africa.

>>15751067
recessions are announced in retrospect because that's what they are by definition. Also why is it that anti-fed loons never post any real proof that the fed is somehow controlling the banking system? It's just a govt owned banking adjacent money-management institution that sets interest rates and monitors inflation. Oh and some federal oversight guidance comes from the fed.

>>15751018
Oh wow. This was just posted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis 2 days ago:

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/september/australia-28-year-expansion

Reading now.

Thanks for sharing.

>>15750468
Just in time for Trump to lose the 2020 election? Well gee whizz whadd’ya know fancy that!

>>15751061
Get an education? LOL. This info:
>>15751018
Was just released a few days ago.

>>15751119
i fucking love biz, i learn a lot here.
Demographics are usually underrated but they're probably the most important indicator of your economy future
Raoul Pal on real vision will talk about demos more than others

>>15751115
Nice try to sound informed retard.
Fed is not owned by government. It was established 1913 solely to protect its shareholders the banks!
At least try and google the topic before you shit out the contents of your undies on the thread.
Moron.

>>15751115

>It's just a govt owned banking adjacent money-management institution that sets interest rates and monitors inflation.

As lender of last resort, this means that private banks can always rely upon the institution to bail them out whenever there is a funding shortage.

That makes Goldman Sachs as much part of the government as the Federal Reserve is.

I'm not a conspiracy loon, it's just people working in tandem for their own benefit.

>>15751130
>politics dictates how the market acts
Guess you really loved how Obama saved this country then huh retard?
Politics is only tangentially related to economics don't @me.

>>15751171
>i fucking love biz, i learn a lot here.

Bizraelis know what's going on demographics are fucked up , gif related , specially in european or latin american welfare states.

>>/biz/thread/S430845#p431216

Link unrelated.

>>15751180
yup established by the government and controls government monetary policy.
>>15751182
this is also correct. No country would allow banks to fail on their soil in this day and age for fear of social upheaval.

>>15751180

It's not strictly a private institution, they have powers vested in them by congress and they are subject to oversight.

Thing is: that oversight is largely superficial because the vast majority of lawmakers want ever looser monetary policy to facilitate government (and private!) spending.

>>15751229
That oversight is largely superficial because it's largely unnecessary. The most insane thing the fed has done in the last 10 years is change a digit around back and forth.

>>15751207

India and Africa look like balloons that are about to pop.

>1950

Remember this is how boomers see the world. They just can't visualize just how outnumbered the West is and how bad it has gotten during their lifetimes.

Australia looks like a cat that has been run over in that gif.

>>15751259

>That oversight is largely superficial because it's largely unnecessary.

I think if congress opened the Fed's books and see what kind of things they were doing during the 2008-2010 days, and just who they were backstopping, that would be a very ugly scene.

Most congressmen aren't going to do that though, as it puts them at odds with both their party, the private banks and the government all in one go.

>>15751279
>Remember this is how boomers see the world. They just can't visualize just how outnumbered the West is and how bad it has gotten during their lifetimes.

Exactly they just thing they are the big thing and act as liberators with shit like outsourcing jobs or easy money printing , after all you can print all you want if you are the big guy in the town.

They don't realize how fucked up things are.

>India and Africa look like balloons that are about to pop.

India is actually stabilizing and starting to decrease , africa is a racewar waiting to start , nigeria will have more people than the eu this century , even if 3% of the population immigrate it will cause massive social programs sadly.

Bullish for crypto tough since they lack banking infrastructure.

There won't be any huge end of the world recession this time around. If you're talking about it before it happens that means it's nothing severe.
2008 was so fucked exactly because no one believed or knew it will happen, not even big institutions. When you and your grandma are talking about prepping for the coming recession, that means the big institutions are already ahead it way before you even started thinking about it.

The only thing that will happen is a long ass crab market

>>15751171
What does Ru Paul have to do with the economy?

>>15751337
yes and no. Quantum computing, new materials processing techniques, medical breakthroughs, all these and more are coming and will change the economical landscape. If the United States gets its shit together with its trading partners, relaxes sanctions on other world powers, and starts improving infrastructure again, then they're back on top. Instead they're giving foreign aid to a load of bullshit countries, cutting ties with its entire sphere of influence, and invading sand pits for the Saudis.

>>15751382
Changes and exponential technological advancements are a constant, but huge recessions (depressions) don't happen out of such events but because of huge unforseen things barely anyone believes will happen. When even the big institutions don't believe it's real, then you're really fucked, as it were in 2008.
You're now talking about quantum computing on an online imageboard, but no one was talking about the incoming housing bubble in 2006, not even the big boys.

>>15751412
what I'm saying is that no recession is endless. Of course there's a recession coming, but new industries also ensure new jobs and the cycle continues...

>>15750875
Agreed. There's no hope for you if you're not seeing it already.

>>15751469
based wrong paul poster wrong as always.
Consumer holiday spending always props up q4.

>>15750767
My penis is ready for that quivering German anus. It deserves it.

>>15751412

I don't think the domestic economy is capable of delivering a recession inducing shock like 2000 or 2008. Things are just too liquid now and the big banks/fed will recapitalize the markets before something breaks, or rather before the average consumer realizes something has broken.

What it will take is an external shock, something similar to an oil embargo, another reasonably sized war, trade war heating up, massive policy divergence by a new president, etc etc.

Basically something outside of the Fed's hands that they can't contain without a public announcement of a change in policy.

>>15751171
>i fucking love biz, i learn a lot here.
You realize this place is full of idiots and trolls right?

>>15751485

Growth rate in Q4 2018 was the lowest for the year.

Trump's stated reason for postponement of tariffs this year was to avoid an impact on the Q4 of 2019.

It's certainly going to be interesting.

>>15751722

If you act like an idiot, you'll attract idiots.

>>15751692
You do realize that all the top companies in the U.S. right now depend on ad dollars yes?
What happens when companies pump billions into advertising and then suddenly holiday 2020 comes around and zoomers start entering the workforce just as boomers start dying?
Ad money goes nowhere and its a race to the bottom: big data, ad services companies, faang, all that shit is belly up.

>>15751207
Now compare the demographics with the dwindling oil reserves

>>15750468
NO, I can't take another one. Please, dear god!

>>15751728
trump is the same guy who stopped selling soi to china just so he could artificially pump our own farms for absolutely no reason. He's a retard and the only reason he didn't go bankrupt is because he had a reality tv show. Picking a fight with your largest trading partner because "reasons" only to get completely fucked by their growing middle class...
I'm not even a liberal I just want a normal level headed asshole in charge fuck. I wish Romney would come back and just shrug and say "I told you so" while wearing a Romney 2020 badge.

>>15751412

>but huge recessions (depressions) don't happen out of such events but because of huge unforseen things barely anyone believes will happen.

I will dispute this. I think of it rather as those unforeseen things being the trigger, but not necessarily the cause.

Do you blame the pin for popping a balloon, or do you blame the air that has overinflated the balloon?

One releases the energy, the other builds it up.

>>15751774
>Still believing the preisdent isn't just a puppet that does as he's told...

>>15751792
>

>>15750606
Explain in any meaningful way how the economy is a house of cards.

If you’re just going to regurgitate boomer buzz words back it up little lady.

>>15751774

You don't understand the geo-political game. Ask yourself why China even has a middle class in 2019, when in 1979 they were pretty much an agrarian peasant economy.

If it takes a mild recession to eliminate China as a geopolitical rival, then that's a better outcome than having no recession but allowing China to become #1.

>>15751823
>a mild recession
>eliminate China as a geopolitical rival
This is fantasy. China now has investments all over the world, is capitalizing on late stage industrialism at an unprecedented rate, and produces an increasing amount of their own food thanks to the scare trump gave them. All he did was hand them the keys to their own economic independence. I'll never understand this 4d chess meme when all of his policies are a proven bust. Plus
>politics being only tangentially related to markets
one man an economy does not make.

>>15751838

The President does have the power to restrict American companies from doing business with a foreign nation, and all of that foreign nation's businesses. Think of the restrictions placed on North Korea and Iran.

The fact that American businesses were linked up with China in the first place was a result of a deliberate national policy direction, right out of the Nixon White House.

It's better too late than never. You can argue about Trump's tactics and methodology, which admittedly are pretty lackluster, but at least he is attempting to do something, or at least appearing to attempt to do something.

Nobody talked about Chinese trade in a political context before Trump.

>>15750468
For a lot of people, the recession that started in 2008 is still going on, and getting worse.

>>15751892
everyone with a brain was talking about China they were just speaking in a positive light.
>Hey China I see you've taken over global manufacturing
>I see you've got the biggest spike in organic gdp growth
>hmm you've also stolen all our IP, and are backward engineering every advancement from every major country
>hmmm looks like your brand of communism is really just aggressive socialist democracy (capitalism)
>you know what? despite the fact that all our metal, most of our tech, and half our farming is tied to your economy I think it's time to throw my weight around
>what? what do you mean it doesn't matter?
Literally just showing then that they don't need us.

>>15751933

I didn't say that it would be easy or that America isn't in a very precarious position, but to just allow China to take over the world isn't a sound geopolitical strategy.

America becoming a superpower wasn't predicated upon her military prowess. It was mostly due to massive industrial superiority, strategic location in the world and creditor status.

Now China has creditor status and industrial might.

>>15752008
now this I can agree with. I'm telling you, if you want America first you should be investing in infrastructure. "Green New Deal" might sound cringey as fuck, but we need renovations in almost every major American city, plus we could really use some development in government owned land. God damn sierra club hippies and all these millions of acres of "nature reserves." We could build cheaper housing outside 50-100 miles of all American cities, build affordable, new apartments, and high speed high quality transportation in and out of said cities.
I mean obviously my post is a bit reductive, but I don't think it's an insane proposition that we spread out our living area and cut back on transportation costs and time.

>>15751892
Not true Obama's plan was to form trade partnerships with countries in and around china and then put pressure on china with a possible trade war or just decreased trade