/biz/ - Business & Finance

A bit odd if you ask me.... there seems to be a real lack of transparency here.

>>15640970
Lmfao RIP banks RIP linkies and rippletards

>>15640970
things are normal! banks are making record profits unlike 2008! nothing to worry about!
>>15640991
>transparency
what's that?
>>15641033
who isn't being RIP'd?

>>15641080
If you know you know

>>15640970
Woah news is reporting 1/3 that amount. That's a shitload of money to print overnight.

>>15640970
The fed is hostage to Wall Street. If this is now their policy, Wall street need simply overtax the debt market and poof, the fed shows up to shower money on them all.

>>15641099
Or ~ 1% inflation in 3 days according to fiatmarketcap.

>>15641111
sand nigger w/ tha quads

>>15640970
it’s to buy chainlink

>>15640970
This is the biggest event of the year and nobody is talking about it

>>15641216
Bump. Stop engaging with psyop fake story distraction threads and pay attention to the money anon

>>15641263
Wake up goys

>>15641080
>>transparency
>what's that?
For investors? Bitcoin.
>who isn't being RIP'd?
again BTC gains from this
>>15640970
they say the bank repo markets felt a crunch because low liquidity, the quarterly tax payments for corps coincided with a jap holiday so we had no cash coming from japan to the bond markets and and corporations withdrawing from banks at the same time but it needs 3 days of $ injections? Seems shady.
What I don't get is this is the fed's rate, don't they usually do minor repo rate adjustments different than this to keep it in the target range?
Are they trying to crash the economy and falshing warning signals? Or is this to weaken the dollar?

He said inflation was under the 2% target. He's just printing money to make that rise. No big deal.

>>15640970
can I get a QRD?
>t. brainlet

>real financial news about the biggest habbening since 2008 crisis
>not another shillpost about some shit crypto or buttcoin
Git da fuck ouddahere

How would someone get access to this money? 150B in 3 days I think is a new record

>>15641371
Fed dropped trow and launched diarhea dump into the pool that we're in :(

>>15641371
Large institutions keep their funds in treasuries and other secure debt products. Sometimes they need to convert these holdings to cash to make payments on whatever. They lend their securities to other entities overnight and agree to pay a bit extra when they buy them back the next day (the interest rate). If you're on the other end and you want to buy these securities, and you feel confident about the counterparty's ability to pay them back, you won't ask for much interest. If you don't really want them, or if you think the counterparty is going to default overnight or something like that, you'll demand a higher interest rate to make it worth your while.

In the past week this interest rate has briefly bspiked to literally its highest on record with no obvious reason, making it really expensive to lend money overnight this way. So instead of banks not lending to each other anymore and causing a liquidity crisis, the Fed is stepping in to guarantee that these trades will go through by acting as counterparty of last resort. They conducted a repo operation for $53b on Tuesday, more concerning is that they did one this morning allotting for $75b of repo but were asked for $80b meaning a bunch of entities were short $5b of funding today. They're doing the same thing tomorrow morning and if the operations keep getting oversubscribed it's a sign something is seriously wrong in the money markets.

I'm really into doom porn and hope the repo operation is oversubscribed by like $20b, if something like that happens the shit is absolutely going to hit the fan and it will be like 2008 all over again.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=236872#discuss

>>15641416
>>15641416
It's reserved for banks and VC, hedge funds, usually owned by the banks for short term lending

>>15641464
thank you for this
Doesn't the fed usually play this role? or does the rate almost always fall in line with the feds target range? Is this just a bigger injection than usual or something done only when repo rates break out too much?

>>15641464
Just when I lose all hope that this place is just zoomers and shit memes, here comes anon to drop some truth on homie. Thanks anon

>>15641468
from that board
>Quote:
Who could the borrower(s) be that had to pay 10%? Would it not have to be entities that have access to the Repo market yet do not have access to the Fed? Do I even understand that much correctly?

No; while they could presumably go to the discount window doing THAT is a self-declaration of distress, which NOBODY wants to do (especially if it's someone like DoucheBank!)

What you're seeing is the perversity of the Fed's "excess reserve" nonsense. The Fed should NOT be paying anything on those deposits; they should be willing to hold them at a negative rate reflecting the cost of custody, but never, ever pay someone to leave them there.

The entire point of having the privilege of being a bank is that you lend out the funds you have in excess of your required reserves. The Repo market is a LENDING market; it is, at its core, about balancing reserve and transactional requirements on a short term basis (overnight to a few days.) If there is a shortage of funds in that market DUE TO THE CHOICES MADE BY LENDERS the Fed's job is NOT to step in -- their job in that situation is to BITCH SLAP the organizations involved.

>>15641567
but the fed is lowering the amount it pays on excess rates, right?
and doesn't the repo rates drag up the feds funds rate above their target.

Trump loves this shit, more inflation

>>15641464
Whats scary is you're not wrong. And this will go largely unnoticed on this Bavarian Zamboni Forum.
I work in Real Estate. I work closely with mortgage lenders. Shits fucked...
But what did you expect when you started giving loans to people who shouldn't get them. NINJA MY FRENS

So is this literally *the end* or another non-happening?

>>15641657
You tell me dicktard.
Banks aren't trusting each other to lend to one another overnight. Thus the spikes in interest rates.
Now banks aren't trusting each other so much that the gubment had to step in and guarantee it.
Yet when it came time to settle some of the banks were short.

Was that simple enough for you candy land?

>>15640970
you know these amounts get repaid (with some interest) every morning right?

>>15641700
you read the thread right?

>>15641700

>>15641675

The problem is that this is the third day they have had to do this and if they have to do it Friday morning again, someone will have to do something ASAP. It's a structural crack in the system that is supposed to work but isn't. For now, it is isolated but if something else happens at the same time, shit could really go down.

>>15641710
yes and >>15641464
is the only guy who knows whats going on it seems, except he is overreacting to the situation, his info is basically correct. corporate taxes where owed and this with the huge amounts of bonds issued caused some liquidity issues for banks. Just bad timing if nothing else.

>>15641675
the banks are lending but they're also part owners of the corporations borrowing the funds, if I get it.
If the FED is rushing in now why don't the banks pull funding more often? Make the FED come in a save the day.

>>15641736
The whole system is based on trust, trust that banks can pay back the money they borrow. If they just wait for the fed to keep on paying the shortfall that trust could break down.

>>15640970
cashing out to buy sergeys 700k dumps

>>15641727
Everyone from corporations to world govts are increasing cash reserves, Google, berkshire hathaway, apple, amazon and now the banks and the US treasury under orders from Trump to fight chinese currency manipulation

Stop over reacting people and don't pay attention to the worlds elite hoarding so much cash it's causing liquidity shocks in debt markets

>>15641754
>If they just wait for the fed to keep on paying the shortfall that trust could break down.
in that case, it would be in there best interest to bend the feds trust but not break it. I was think the higher rates would motivate them but they let it get to 10% recently, so the market wasnt going to crrect itself quickly i guess

>>15641772
>nothing to see here goyim watch porn instead

>>15641772
Im not saying not to take note of the big picture, I enjoy my conspiracy theories as much as the next guy. BUT saying this is 2008 all over again is just plain retarded.

>>15641784
The banks do not want to borrow at such rates from other banks, and the fed does not want the banks not to be able to meet their obligations. high rates are not good. They try and keep them between 2.5% and 5%.

>>15641795
if someone would have told me toxic MBS would crash the worlds economy in 2007, I probably wouldn't have believed them.
>>15641758
larping like link holders have other assets to cash out, all LINK holders now are 100% in LINK Brian Jonestown Cryptocurrency

>>15641721
>>15641736
How many times do you have to read mortgage backed securities?

>>15641727
Taxes happen every year fucktard
Get out here with that shit

>>15641941
>>15641941
that's another thing, how come taxes never did this before to repo markets?
This could just be a hiccup and the crash doesn't come for another two or more years. It just looks bad when added up with everything else.
Trade wars, hyper inflation globally, interest rates at or near 0%, fed talking about negative rates could work in theory, debt markets over leveraged, hosing looks like it's peaking or plateauing, zombie companies in the US and China, national debts/GDP at ATH, auto's closing. Who is in good shape besides the major companies sitting on billions? Why are they sitting rather than investing or reinvesting the money? They're waiting for a better deal.

>>15641941
because it is a combination of things of which corporate tax being due is one, retard. God when someone with a sub 80 IQ replies on here it makes me wonder why I still sometimes visit this site.

>>15642224
Tax may have contributed but it never set it off before. Why wouldn't the banks pull money from their excess reserves at the fed and use that 2.5% to make the 5 or 7% in repo markets Why is the FED printing $ to do this? Is what I don't get.

>>15641464
Thanks for make biz a better place

>>15640970
>Fractional reserve banking is a system in which only a fraction of bank deposits are backed by actual cash on hand and available for withdrawal.
>The reserve requirement is the amount of funds a bank must have on hand each night. It is a percent of the bank's deposits.
OK, I guess.
>The overnight repo market is where banks loan cash to each other to ensure maintenance of these federally-mandated reserve requirements.
So banks pretend to meet the requirements with loans? Well as long as the sector as a whole has the cash in reserves, maybe that works?
>The FED has stepped in to allow banks to continue to pretend to meet federally-mandated reserve requirements.
Oh.

>>15641111
Checked
Niccccccccccccccceeee

>>15641416
Damn they could've given almost 500 usd to each US citizen with that.

>>15641567
also from that board
>Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
>2007

Banks should increase the interest rate paid on deposits if they need more cash.

>>15642786
That's anti-semitic

>>15642786
Federal reserve artificially limits rates on loans so theyd be losing money if they raised interest rates on savings on their own

it looks like they're just using one of the tools available to them to help meet their policy goal of maximum employment and stable prices

>>15642918
But also do whatever is necessary to maintain this expansion

>>15642918
>>15643012
I'm going to go ahead and unironically take these posts seriously; everything is fine.

>>15643126
you do that. Never worry your head about how much money they print, it will all be fine. For BTC holders

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-begins-repo-operation-funding-rates-ease

>>15640970
basically, there's a bank somewhere with shortfall that was unable to find loans in the repo market. we don't know details about that. it's not unusual at all for banks to lend money to each to balance the books at the end of the day. there seems to be a trust issue for some reason though where the institution that's short isn't able to find loans in the normal repo market, so the fed stepped in to cover it. so they lent the 53B or whatever it was, then committed another $75B to ease the markets fears.
when banks become afraid to lend to each other, the whole repo market breaks down and shit hits the fan, so by stepping in and committing an excess of funds, the fed is trying to reinstill confidence. most of that money has not been spent and is not needed.

>>15643972
It's getting worse
>>15643894

>>15643977
it will get a lot worse if banks are on edge fearing another 2008. nobody wants to hold the hot potato. the whole system is built on trust. the lender has to trust that the recipient is able to repay the loan.

>>15643012
the balance sheet MUST continue to grow organically

They love to pump BTC at the FED

Rolling for the collapse of the fiat ponzi

>>15643972
What’s the chance it’s deutsche

>>15644639
It's the usual suspect.

>>15642224
Hey, you better watch it buddy. People with sub 80 IQ are people too and biz welcomes us. The smart ones figure out how to make it and they give us memes so we know how to follow. We makes the lols. $1 k eoy

>>15641416
Over 200B. 53 on Monday, 75 yesterday, and another 75 today.

Yesterday's offering was oversubscribed, meaning that total liquidity wasn't sufficient for all the borrowers, causing rates to still be elevated. Today's repo was EVEN MORE oversubscribed, and rates are still above the PREVIOUS Fed target range of 2.25%. They lowered it to 2% but the rates haven't even normalized into the previous range lol.

Fed has no choice but to keep up the QE (even though they would never call it QE), it's either that or let the overnight lending market collapse as companies trample over each other to not be one of the poor schmucks to be left insolvent.

This is just one of many indicators (like the yield curve) that often lags 6-18 months behind actual market contraction

Brainlet here

Doesn't this pretty much guarantee a recession is coming within the next three to six months?

>>15641351
When I first read their tax payments excuse on Tuesday it immediately reminded me of the Chinese New Year meme that circulated when everyone was dumping their bags at the end of 2017 and early 2018.

no, but it's unusual for the fed to have to get involved in the repo market. its a red flag for sure, but so long as they are able to hold confidence and extend the needed capital in the short term, we would hope the rest can work itself out. I don't know where the shortfall is coming from though.

> Credit markets are locking up.
Watch this if you want to know how this is going to turn out:
https://youtu.be/k9_bWbrYPKg
He talks a lot about the pension crisis but gives very good insights about when and how the credit markets will freeze up and bring on recession.

>>15642411
Lol, an enthralling literary exposition, anon.

>>15644639
>>15644691
Oh so this is an international market? I thot it was just US, if the Fed is pumping it.

>>15641567
If there really is a bank doing so poorly that no one will lend to them overnight for under 10% then perhaps they should reconsider their business model and keep more cash on hand or just go out of business already.

>>15641772
Ok big brain. If banks are increasing cash reserves why are they short on cash 3 nights in a row?

>>15645050
6-18 months?? Ok I'm not offloadingg my equities yet

>>15641443
That wasn't polite at all

Check it out brainlets. The liquidity operations began on Monday, right after the Yemeni/Iranian/whoever attack on Saudi oil refining facilities. The Saudis are now importing crude oil and other oil products and are supposedly bleeding $400 million / day.

The reason for the liquidity shortfall is likely related. Perhaps Saudi Aramco debt was being used as collateral. Their counterparty could have gotten spooked and demanded higher rates.

>>15643972
If you're a trader at a bank, and you have a suspicion which bank is weak, the logical response would be to encourage your own bank to suck up as much of the liquidity the Fed is offering as possible (depriving the other bank of it) and then bet on their default using CDSs.

>>15641754
>the system is based on trust
>put jews in charge
Yikes.

>>15645925
This actually was my first thought when they printed the first money after the oilrig attacks in saudi arabia.

1. Be a stupid bank.
2. Gamble on BRENT and CRUDE with 30x leverage.
3. Suddenly black swan event with attack on oil production.
4. Get liquidated. Lose all the money.
5. Ask the FED to print some more play money.

... i mean the 15% gain on crude was the highest 1 day increase in oil ever. So there might be a couple of idiots getting liquidated by this. Especially since it looks very likely, that oil is going down forever because of the climate esotherics .

>>15645461
It's just the US. But a lot of these banks are siphoning money to Europe to sell the debt there because interest rates are higher in US

>>15646097
If a bank got BTFO trading like that, I wonder if they would need to file an 8K with the SEC. wonder what the deadline would be.

>>15640970
Spreading it out Trump is smart.....instead of one giant HIT

YW

>>15646155
>>15646097
Maybe the repo collateral was oil futures.

>>15640970
> 1-3/4
why not bushels, you fucking burgers

Bump

>>15640970
>$200 billion injection in 3 days
shit looks fucked

B-but tether

>>15641464
Based, please continue to drop truthbombs

So let me get this straight, the Fed just said Alakazam and created over 200 billion more freedom dollars in three days?

Lmao I don't want to hear any of you commies complaining about capitalism every again

>>15646747
No the duration had been one day only

>>15641727
I think you are repeating the narrative that they WANT us to believe

Lol the fed is a mess

Bunch of childish boomers

>>15644000
This is really all it everyone wants to sit in cash and let every one else blow up

It's like all of you losers waiting for the next recession so you can buy up RE and whatnot

The question is what does this all lead to? Devaluation? Inflation?

>>15646927
You don't want to be sitting in cash when inflation hits

>>15646927
It seems like deflation is the real hidden threat here.

>>15646865
Make sure to vote against any form of social security and programs for the elder for the next 40 years. They deserve to die poor, sick and left in their own piss and shit

Another repo operation announced for tomorrow 8:15-8:30 ET $75B offered. That's four days in a row.

Everything is fine though. Buy more stocks.

>>15647284
Wasn't it supposed to be 1-2 days max?

>>15641464
Thank you anon. High quality post.

Perhaps we shouldn't have based the entire global economy on Good Goy Points.

Hey, wait a minute... What was it that Tesla guy said about getting energy from the atmosp--

>>15641464
Somebody on this board said this doesn't really bloat the feds balance sheet. This is because they turn around and sell them swiftly (I assume). If 2008 happens aren't you just left holding junk assets?

>>15647296
Nope

>>15647346
The Fed prints money out of thin air. It couldn't give a fuck

>>15647346
>Somebody on this board said this doesn't really bloat the feds balance sheet.
Here's how this works. Banks put excess reserves into fed vaults and earn 1.80%. Repo markets are collateralized with treasuries and other high grade assets allowing the default risk to be ignored. When a bank can't meet it's daily reserve requirements it goes to the repo market and sells it's treasuries or other holdings. Banks who have excess reserves on that day can lend to the banks in need at a rate greater than 1.80% to earn extra profit. Lender gives dollars, borrower gives treasury, mbs, etc as collateral, duration is usually one day. Banking system working normal.

What is occurring now. Banks are in need of dollars but there is a shortage to the point that repo rates shot up to 10% before lenders stepped in. This means banks are running out of dollar reserves that they can lend. This is really important because the fiat world runs on fraction reserve, dollar shortage very bad.

Fed steps in. They create dollars and lend them to banks injecting dollar liquidity. Next day the loan is done the bank gives back the Fed the borrowed money plus interest and the fed gives back the collateral, dollar liquidity is removed. Repo rates are still too high, there is still a dollar shortage. Fed does the operation again, but each day the loan is done the dollar injection is removed and banks are still not able to raise their own reserves which means something is going wrong on the banking side.

This is basically QE that is followed by QT daily. If banks can't raise reserves the Fed will have to start another round of QE without QT to inject permanent dollar liquidity. The better question is why are banks running out of reserves that they can lend???

>>15647675
> This means banks are running out of dollar reserves that they can lend. This is really important because the fiat world runs on fraction reserve, dollar shortage very bad.
You were right up to this point. This is wrong though. There can be no shortage, as there is 1.5T in excess reserves parked at the Fed. So the institutions borrowing at 10% must not have good collateral they are able to post.

>>15647675
thanks anon! So they aren't going to call it QE until there is no QT immediately after.

>>15647761
QE is aimed at getting bad assets off bank balance sheets and lowering borrowing costs.
What the Fed is doing this week is providing short term liquidity (cash) for some financial institution that is bordering on insolvency

>>15641727
>some of the largest multi billion dollar entities on the planet have literally forgotten to do their taxes

Bump

>>15645127
Unironically yes. As the other guy said I would leave the window at 6-18 months. Do what you can to prepare before then. This sounds bad.

>>15648424
Fed knew of Lehman insolvency a month before it was made public

Bump

>>15647730
underrated

Most likely, nothing ever happens (that effects everyone on some global financial scale).

Sorry lads, get back in the cage and keep accumulating data provider tokens.

>>15648424
>a recession is definitely coming within the next 12 months
a recession ay?
for who?
where?

Oh..

Just property owners in specific areas in a few specific countries..?

Yep, nothing ever happens.

>>15640970
It's in order to force the new rate cut down the market's throat, this is the way the Federal reserve directly steers the market.

I'm practical terms, what does the lack of liquidity do to the bank in need?

GUYS THEY ARE PRINTING ANOTHER 75 BILLION FOR TOMORROW HOLY FUCK
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-repo/ny-fed-to-conduct-repo-operation-friday-idUSKBN1W42S4

Trump is nuking the economy, film at 11

>>15649443
not an expert but i think it depends. if the bank doesnt have the amount of required reserves, it's probably in violation of bank regulations.
normally, a bank would just be able to borrow the reserves. but the troublesome situation is when it can't. that suggests that the bank is insolvent.

>>15649471
these are one day operations, so it's not like we've cumulatively printed some ~200+ B in 4 days

>>15649443
They can’t lend to businesses and businesses start to shut down.

you guys need to chill out

no global econimc crisis is going to happen

realistically the dollar will just get a bit weaker.

which if you think about it is fine. because its really strong as of late.

the real winners here are anyone who has been investing in other countrys.

the real losers are people with 100k in their checking account like my neighbor.


carry on

daily reminder, nothing will happens

>>15649607
>>15649592
something literally happened only a few days ago
it resulted in the price of oil spiking 15% in a single day
the single biggest one-day swing in who knows how long. (maybe ever?)
a total black swan event
now the fed is performing highly unusual activities, and providing explanations that don't make logical sense. the actions the fed is taking, in conjunction with the turbulence in the oil market, suggest that something indeed has happened.

>>15649630
>implying oil prices didn't move because the Middle East is being retarded again

>>15649662
right. the "something" i refer to initially was the attack in SA. its effect on the oil market was a black swan event that very well could be the catalyst to an insolvency crisis. and if there were an insolvency crisis with one large firm, the fed would be acting just like it is doing so right now.

>>15649683
>>15649630
countrys have oil reserves for a reason.

i would worry once all nations start tapping into them.


printing 200b is literally nothing.

a drop in a bucket.

>>15649705
did you miss the news reporting that saudi arabia is importing crude so that its exports dont slip?

>>15641111
fuggin checked

wall street continues to pump the market and proves anon is retarded

>>15649740
wat

>>15649716
ok, so global oil trade flows will be changing... big whoop. they only produce 6% of all global supply

if push comes to shove more fracking will happen in america.

which i dont support BTW

but we will do whatever it takes.

>>15640970
Same thing happened a month before Lehman exploded. A bank is illiquid. I take either HSBC, wells fargo, or DB

>>15649775
the supply of oil had nothing to do with the point i was making, which instead concerned its price volatility. the fact is that some bank is clearly insolvent. oil market disruption is the most likely catalyst.

>>15640970
btc flip isnt worth it because even if it hits 100k usd, it still aint anything more than a 10x.
BTC will NEVER hit past $360k

>>15649806

How can anyone on fourchins be this new and/or retarded?

1 (one) BTC will be worth upwards of $500,000 USD within the next 20 years.

>>15642465
See if they can do this why cant they do ubi?

However even as low as $1000 a month in UBI payments, id be a neet

>>15649794
except they're not insolvent...the fed has lent them the money they need.

>>15650067
>they're not insolvent because the government wagged its magic money stick

>>15641111
Maybe you were young but in 08 the government had to bail the banks out because the banks own the government, most worlds governments and plenty in between

>>15650087
If you have access to credit you're not insolvent

What's interesting is that this all happens a few days after oil had its multi-sigma move because of the Saudi rig getting blown up. If anything was on the bad side of an oil derivatives contract, and got caught without being properly hedged, that could cause some problems for them. If for instance Deutsche bank's massive derivatives book wasn't properly balanced, and now they have liabilities out the wazoo from their naked leveraged short term call writing.. They might need need to borrow fat stacks to pretend they are still solvent.

>>15650067
Except that means fuck all.

The fed would in this case be the lender of last resort, as it should be, it's been happening for several days in a row, and still oversubscribed.

That indicates an inability to resolve the lending by the banks themselves, and that in and of itself means that either or both:

A. banks are losing trust in one another, which the entire system necessitates.
or
B. one or more large institutions in the segment (looking at you Deutsche) are literally on the brink of insolvency.

Regardless, the entire situation hints at a systemic crack that more or less the entire financial system absolutely depends on.

>>15650105
>Lehman Brothers wasn't insolvent because the government could have bailed it out, but didn't.

>>15645277
thanks for the vid

>>15642411
>Oh.

Lol that was funny.

>>15650129

Everyone here is probably praying you're right. But we all have a tendency to wishcast.

Too often, we underestimate the desire of those in charge of the system to perpetuate it, no matter the cost. They'd sooner let 50 million Americans become homeless overnight than lose 1% of their power and influence.

>>15640970
Market wants higher rates and fed is losing control. That’s what’s happening.

>>15645277
fuck yeah, real vision is the best source to understand all the global markets in one place, they just keep adding quality videos. Thanks for posting

>>15645277
let me also chime in and say that this is quite b&r
>>15650607
got any to recommend?

i've personally been on a richard werner kick lately

>>15645925
OR perhaps this whole attack was the middle eastern version of 9/11 and they created a false flag attack on their own infrastructure to raise the price of oil and fuck over banks while giving them the ability to shift the blame on to whomever they choose.

>>15650628
Werner is awesome, love his stuff on the BOJ.
For trading MJ stocks and crypto I watch chart guys daily
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9u0f71H9sWA

I dig Raoul Pal on RealVision, his interviews entertain and inform me the most
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OFaZcC0lRU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtjziNDqC4E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX1oYIVl4jw

>>15650770
Love the chart guys! I listen to Raoul Pal, Peter Schiff, Money GPS is really good, and if you're on a doom and gloom kick Epic Economist posts quality videos.

>>15649787
I mean.. when a major bank freezes up and they talk about the domino effect.. this is what they mean exactly. The shell game can’t function if they don’t have the cash to cover each other’s asses at the end of each day.

>>15650020
UBI would have a more disruptive effect because average people’s view of fiat would change. Giving money to bankers that already know it’s a sham, and will never let it reach average people is less of a problem.

>>15650941
I see it the opposite way because these bankers lose so many gambles on wall street because they have too much money they take extreme risks. UBI would increase spending on domestic goods and services most. Bankers have too much money, it's not being invested in anything besides stock buybacks. They've ran out of options to spend it on so they create debt instruments. Derivatives built around anything they can think of until we need to bail them out

>>15650640
those blasts holes are too accurate for sand people

>>15647879
Deutsche bank?

>>15646927
The Fed won't let deflation happen, their target is 2% and they'll make damn sure they hit that target. The problem is deflationary forces on the market are so strong, the consumer has been tapped out on credit and has no more steam, they'll end up hyperinflating the dollar to generate the 2% yield. We still have another 12 - 18 months before that happens though. Like we'll see negative rates and 0% loans this time next year and they still won't hit their target.

Or who knows maybe the crash comes all at once and the Fed is caught with its pants down.

another unsatisfying popular press article on the subject which answers no questions https://archive.is/yScft

>>15650118
And if wall street catches on there will be uge volatility. It will create some sort of volatility feedback loop. More vol = DB goes further down the drain = more vol
That's why everyone except zerohedge is tight lipped about this

>>15651576
he said devaluation and inflation, not deflation

>>15650805
>Epic Economist
Is it his own voice or some sort of advanced text to speech?

>>15651627
thanks for this.

>>15640970
I think the bankers know they are fucked and are buying crypto. They know the first one to fold and buy wins if crypto takes off.

Let me clear some stuff up. I manage a large money market portfolio.

It is NOT a credit issue, evidenced by:
1) no change in CDS spreads for primary dealers.
2) Higher volume of GCF (cleared) and DVP (Bilateral) Repo. If this is a credit issue the volume would go DOWN

This is caused by increased UST issuances, dealers almost always finance USTs with repo. They make money on the flow, not the interest on these bonds.

Supply of repos is limited by amount available for investments at money markets and GSEs. When demand goes up, supply is very inelastic (Fed Funds sellers can't just switch to repos. Legal docs takes weeks/months to set up, among other reasons). Money Funds are have very strict mandate on weighted average maturity and weighted average life of the fund.

>>15640970
Those are very very short term loans that are repurchased in the AM.
Literally nothing to be afraid of. DESU this is just to "hurt" Trumps stock market, which retards think is the economy...

>>15650805
what do you guys think of Peter Schiff's bearishness on crypto? do you think he would be less bearish even bullish if he knew the capability of smart contracts?

>>15652103
Is this anything to worry about then?

>>15652147
Peter doesn't believe in crypto at all. He says theyre artificially scarce. Unlike gold. Sure a single coin is scarce. But crypto on the whole is not. Anyone can create their own.
He believes libra is the best bet for crypto because facebook can handle the compliance cost (KYC, AML) all around the world not just US

>>15652135
>Those are very very short term loans that are repurchased in the AM
That means the loan and interest are paid back to the fed, removing more funds from the market. Not a big deal for 3 days or in a vacuum. They're also selling MBS and UST off the FED's balance sheet. All of this in the current climate is creating a money supply squeeze. Trump wants to weaken the dollar FED loaning short term would take interest out daily. Or am I confused on this?
>>15652210
>He believes libra is the best bet for crypto
Schiff selling a stablecoin. No one should have explained bitcoin as the next $ and gold. It's slightly like both but much different, he's afraid because BTC is taking a slice of gold's market. It's taking most of the youth with it, Peter's protecting his holdings.

>>15645277
>>15641464
Looking forward to the show lads.

>>15652192
Fed and US Government needs to figure it out. If they dont, the primary dealers stop underwriting debt for the US government. Risk wont go further than that.

Fuck all you coom and bloom nothingburger faggots. We're all dead

>>15641117
Underrated stat. Puts this in a much better perspective. Thanks based anon

>>15652103
fuck you and your abbreviations

>>15642411
Based and concise pilled

>>15652103
wow, someone who actually knows something

>>15654858
Do you always trust an opinion from someone whose salary depends on it?

>>15652103
you'll need to spell it out for me more, please.
how does an increase in collateral (UST) cause repo rates to spike, exactly?
from what i can discern, the primary dealers take newly issued UST, swap into repo market, but there's a lot of primary dealer demand, and so *that's* the mechanism driving this. is that correct?
if so, what's the relationship with bank reserves and corporate taxes that the media is talking about?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-04-12/why-foreign-investors-aren-t-buying-as-much-u-s-debt-podcast

>>15641117
No it's not because the loans get rapidly repaid overnight, it's not a long term addition to money supply.

this >>15652103
plus this >>15654954
spell everything out

thanks /biz/

>>15645558
Because corps need even MORE cash reserves. The FED underestimated how much cash was going to be held. Cash gets spread globally unlike most currencies.

>>15655441
And don't forget to thank me later, sir

https://imgur.com/U9a0pp0