/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>15587687
>if crypto is a ponzi, stock market is the biggest of all.
Government bonds are the biggest pozi 200 Trillion globally, which is 10 times the size of the stock market.

The reason your model isn't making accurate predictions is that it doesn't contain enough cycles. The major factor missing is the wave that swings investors from Government assets to Private assets.

Have you seen Ray Dalio's economic machine?
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

The best work I've found is Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle work
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/

Who's work have you found useful?

>>15587687
You say the market is saturated, but you should think more specifically about what that means.
What exactly is the limiting factor now?
How can we get more of it?

>>15587752
i am using the debt cycle from ray dalio. he stated that we have reached the end of the long (90 years) and short (roughly 10 years) debt cycle and are heading into a recession with higher probability each year (30% something for this year)

that's why i am asking how lowering interest rates and QE will prolong the cycle if everything is already saturated. whoever wanted to invest into machinery etc already did.

>>15587953
>whoever wanted to invest into machinery etc already did.

There are buyers who you aren't considering that aren't buying for income growth and the next 5 years outlook.
They buy because they want to park money, from their perspective stocks are like gold a store of value but stocks pay a dividend.

Governments typically pay back pennies on the dollar, look at Argentine debt.
The reason the stock market keeps going up is institutions need some yield and need to hedge their Government Bond positions by buying stocks to reduce exposure to default risk.
The Swiss Central Bank and others are buying stocks.

The article below explains this.

Why Central Banks & Buying Equities
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/why-central-banks-buying-equities/

I like Ray Dalio's model, although it hasn't made me money.

>>15588016
>The ECB owns 40% of European government debt
article from 2017, probably worse now and becoming worse through new QE

>As confidence continues to decline in governments, the central banks can go bankrupt UNLESS they too diversify out of government bonds.

so the ECB doesn't diversify? they just hold gov. debt now

>There are buyers who you aren't considering that aren't buying for income growth and the next 5 years outlook. They buy because they want to park money, from their perspective stocks are like gold a store of value but stocks pay a dividend.

but during a recession only a certain type of companies are able to pay dividends. according to your model there must be a massive sell-off once dividends get cut

>>15588086
>but during a recession only a certain type of companies are able to pay dividends.
They hold stocks for capital preservation not just the dividends.
Read this article for a detailed explanation.
PE Ratio – Mania v Panic
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/pe-ratio-mania-v-panic/

TLDR
Buy stocks for return OF capital vs loss all money in government bonds when they default or inflate.

Based on Martin Armstrong model about stocks continuing to go up. I made 4400% on just one options trade. Once I chain two trades like this together I am set for life.

The only thing that makes assets move up is more buyers than sellers, and assets go down is more sellers than buyers. But all buyers and sellers buy for different reasons. The key is capital flows where the money is flowing in from and why.

Armstrong's stuff is the best. He advised on $3 Trillion in the 1980's!
Japanese investment funds in the 1990's lost 2 Trillion dollars because they didn't listen to his model.

>>15588176
You there OP?

>>15588176
he contradicts himself, one article says that stocks go up with higher interest rates

also his article with the 224 year cycle, how old is the USA?
it's similiar to "how to continue 2 4 6 8 10", some would say 12 14 16 18, others say 2 4 6 8 10

capital preservation, if that's the main goal they have to buy gold not stocks

>>15587687
it's called the law of Newphag, every 15-20 years you have a generation of gullible, creditworthy people ready to indebt themselves

>>15588749
>capital preservation, if that's the main goal they have to buy gold not stocks
Yeah your the "smart" one, gold when it pays no interest and institutions are prohibited by law/investment mandate from owning it.

Please don't learn, I need someone to trade against.

Good luck making money based on Ray Dalio's work. Or you can just follow Peter "broken clock" Schiff, Buy Rocks!!! why you losing? Government interference in the perfect free market.

You probably don't even trade

>>15587687
Don't worry. It will crash in mid-October 2020.

>>15587687
they don't know what else to do