/biz/ - Business & Finance

Continued..


>Global macro long-term trends

People managing billion dollar portfolios see a new type of systemic risk - the international financial system becoming destabilized due to trump/brexit/china/euro banks/etc. A lot of catalysts for a fundamental shift.

See: Gold breaking key resistance, hype around Libra.

>Concerns leading consolidation to BTC.

No major asset manager has much faith in anything other than BTC (and maybe Libra, once Libra is a thing).

Why? A few reasons.

A) Crypto is a historical anomaly in the amount of brain power that has gone into the space. Despite this massive inflow of intellectual horsepower, there isn't much to show for it. There are a few narratives that explains this, but generally

1) 'Blockchain' versus cryptocurrencies
2) Just use a fuckin database

B) BTC is 'millennial gold'. Ultimately, its a place on independence from the global financial structure. That is how the big boys are playing it.
If you all have any questions, I can answer them. I work on a trading desk for one of the world's largest broker/dealers (I'm not a trader, however).

>>15137612
>>15137670
anyone who is not a brainlet already knows this
since you work for a broker do you have any inside info on how tutes are buying btc?

The lack of responses is pathetic.

Are the global financial markets collapsing a good thing for BTC?

alts have no hope?

>>15137612
>completely
This is the only place you're wrong.

>>15137670
Tldr:

When everything collapses together at once (which it will), crypto will be the Haven of choice.

Not to mention the age effect. As boomers die off and new generation comes in, crypto popularity will only increase.

Time is on our side ladies and gents, and greed is infinite. Just hold.

Narrow minded fucks with no vision or imagination are the losers who buy at the end of a bull cycle.

>>15137727
>Anyone who doesn't know this is a brainlet

Agreed. I don't spend much time thinking about crypto markets but this is all self evident after a 30 minute dive into the data/charts.

However, 99% of people in this space are brainlets (more on this below).

>Inside info on how tutes are buying btc?

Good question. I'm in fixed income, like all the big dicks, so obviously the cross-over isn't huge. My firm abandoned BTC platform plans b.c. its not that popular with institutional clients. Why?

A) Its against fund mandates. Asset class limitations + operational concerns.
B) Those funds that are at liberty to invest are mostly buy-and-hold.
C) Futures are a much better way for a real firm to speculate in these markets.

However, a few desks at bulge brackets are providing BTC services. It's not a great business to be in.

In general, a lot of my buddies on Wall Street trade crypto b.c. the typical crypto traders are:

>Idiots on Reddit/4chan posting dumb charts and pumping bullshit
>Silicon valley fucksticks who have no knowledge of financial markets whatsoever but code very predictable, dumb algos.

Thus, on the weekends after getting shitfaced at 1Oak, you can pull up and trade to pass the time.

>>15137612
should I hedge using BTC right now? what are some likely long term targets?

also will alts die with BTC surging continuously? and what are your thoughts on Chainlink?

>>15137851
you prob work for Barclays....they abandoned their crypto desk I believe.

>>15137842
You fucking reading what you are writing? By the time the boomers die out you be an old man faggots.

>>15137801
>Completely
You're right, I was too definite. Especially short-term, there are some trading strategies that don't need macro data. However, if you aren't watching forex pairs and BTC flows in different currencies, you're a brainlet.

>>15137743
Foreign exchange volatility is a good thing for BTC.

A total collapse? Try and imagine a world where the traditional banking doesn't work. Countries like Venezuela use BTC in real transactions for this reason. However, the financialization of BTC may expose it to systemic risks.

>>15137791
Alts, in general, are a failed investment thesis. They're either scams or they're worthless because the value is gone the second a better alt takes away the niche.

More generally, most of them actually do lack a use case, b.c. of the huge issues I have mentioned with operational risks in cryptocurrencies. Disadvantages outweigh advantages.

General consensus on the street is cryptos will consolidate to BTC and corporate-backed tethered products like Libra.

>>15137913
STINKIES BTFO'd again. Ty based forex trader.

Link > BTC

this is a stupid question because it also holds no merit whatsofuckingever. but how big of a market cap do u see bitcoin reaching?

>>15137842
>>15137886
Generational impact:

This is part of a lot of macro investors (dudes managing billions, not dudes managing their lunch money) thesis. Bitcoin = millennial gold. It has some big advantages over gold - ease of moving to other currencies and such - so it may outperform. Hard to say.

>>15137853
Hedge using bitcoin? A small allocation of a large portfolio may make sense. Depends on your exposure.

Will alts die? Most likely, there may be some long-term use cases but new iterations of the same concept threaten the value of individual alts.

Chainlink? The mere proliferation of smart contract coins proves the consolidation thesis. I wouldn't bet on the long-term success of any altcoins.

>>15137872
Barclays? No, I don't work for a euro shitbank.

>>15137948
It is a good question. Pic related is a stock-flow model that a lot of macro whales have been throwing around that 'justifies' a very very long-term 100 trillion dollar market cap.

Scarcity is assumed to be a good thing, not a thing that will break the transaction protocol.

Gold's market cap is ~7.7 trillion. I don't think bitcoin will exceed gold in the near future.

>>15137941
Literally no one that is reputable at all invests in shitcoins. The only people with 'money' are shitty crypto 'hedge funds' in silicon valley. Or as we call it on the street, Sillycon Valley. Tech bros are idiots.

reddit spacing. didn't read

>>15137612
1. BTC = $100k+ in few years. Y or N?
2. XRP, opinion? Use case is clearly defined and the level of adoption occurring as we speak is excellent
3. How are you going to play this market?
4. Why are you posting here?

Thanks for your time.

>>15138010
I've never even made a reddit account, you fucking imbecile.

You always space out blocks of text because people like you have no attention span. Even research notes on the street are published this way.
>>15138035
1. Low double-digit probability. Enough to allocate some money. Should perform well when everything else is shitting the bed. If everything else is shitting the bed, greater than 30% probability.

2. I liked XRP in Spring 2017, mostly because of easy arb trades. The use case is gone now - big banks are making currencies that will replace any use case of XRP, Libra replaces XRP. I know some notable fund managers liked XRP but are now bearish (they think it is worthless) with Libra coming.

3. Short term trades based off of analyzing flows in foreign currency markets.

4. I'm between firms right now, upgrading to an illuminati-tier one, and you have to wait a month or so before you're allowed to start (garden period).

>>15138092
Why are you instructed to stay away from work during the notice period, while still remaining on the payroll? How does this happen?

>>15138135
I'm not on the payroll, aside from the signing bonus.

Its to 1) pass background checks and 2) so you don't take market strategies from your old firm.

Standard at all reputable firms. I'm effectively a neet right now, except all the gold diggers from college keep hitting up my linkedin (no joke, shit is weird).

I have to go AFK for a few but I will answer anything to the best of my ability when I'm back.

>>15137612
Hey dude, mind giving some advice to someone who's trying to enter the market ?

As of right now, I see the stock market as only something for the mid to long term investing. Otherwise, I was seriously interested into scalping and day trading forex, since I truly believe that there's some money to be won there.
However, since crypto has come to my mind, they sure seem intriguing. Just seeing so many of those charts going sideways, and kinda stabilizing themselves, I don't know man, it's kind of tempting.
I'll most probably take a look into them anyhow, question is for how long should I hold them.

Thanks a bunch dude.

>>15138154
>Illuminati tier one

You have my attention. So you aren't talking about a well known fund like say PIMCO, Dimensional, etc?

>>15138092
Do you accept the possibility you may be wrong? Just curious to see how firm you are on your opinion.

Seems to me like XRP is the only crypto actually being used today, and is steadily on its way towards adoption (BofA patent, ADP patent, SBI bank consortium using the network, MoneyTap, R3 Corda, Swift, ect ect).

I only bring up XRP as it is the only alt coin I see with a clearly defined use case, and actual ongoing adoption, essentially disruptive. Seems like an easy play to multiply more BTC.

>>15138254
It’s gotta be BlackRock.

>>15137851
Nice larp
no trade desk slave wagie has time to trade, not to mention it is probably forbidden in your gay code of conduct

>>15137612
DRNS

>>15138358
He said hes not a trader

>>15138279
>XRP

XRP is not used by any bank for settlement. For their commercial customers they spin up standalone nodes.

The only real-world BC out there is ETH. DeFi is a meme, but there are actual real world application being written using Solidity; most of that stuff is in-house though and will be executed on private/permissioned blockchains. I can't imagine any half-serious company out there that is going to tie their operations to a massively fluctuating currency and an autistic/pedo project lead.

In terms of short time price movement, I'm still betting on a massive ETH PoS pump once normies realise there's dividends for crypto. 99% of all tokens will go to 0 over the next 5-10 years; maybe BTC will survive, maybe not. Depends on the publics perception of BTCs ability to project store of wealth.

>>15138180
Advice on entering market?

It is a tricky time to enter the market. A lot of macro headwinds.

>World outside of US in a recession

Pretty much, GDP prints have been at or near recession throughout most of Europe.

>Emerging markets haven't panned out

Most crowded trade but strong USD has made this tough.


>No corporate earnings growth since 2014.

Recent GDP data revision from the Fed shows corporate earnings haven't gone up at all. Pretty much they admitted their data was shit. Aside from tax revenues, all other earnings growth has just been zero-sum between corporations.

>Buybacks and leveraged loans.

Highest amount of corporate leverage in history. Corporations are marginal buyers of their own stock. If leveraged loan market dries up, say goodbye to current prices.

>Fed probably didn't cut enough

Powell has increased the cost of funding a significant amount, from near-0 to 2.5%. Its all relative - because borrowers borrowed as if near 0% rates would continue forever.


All in all, equity markets look extremely frothy. Compound that with the demographic headwinds from babyboomers cashing out + underfunded pension funds and a downturn could get ugly.


In equities, I like long-convexity strategies (e.g. a basket of OTM LT puts/options w/an index) but gamma is very expensive right now.

In FI, rate moves trend. The fed fucked up by not cutting enough. They'll probably cut more in September, no matter what Powell says.

All-in-all, it is a tricky time for long-term allocations. Long duration treasuries (stay the FUCK away from corporates, we'll see BBs get downgraded in a downturn) could be a 'move' although it isn't one you'll bank on without derivatives.

Wish I was big brain 300 iq finance guru like you OP

Thoughts on the biggest shitcoin ETH?

>>15138279
XRP isn't decentralized enough to keep its advantage over libra or whatever clones get created by big banks.

>>15138254
>>15138401
>>15138346
My new job is on a trading desk for one of the biggest players. I'm not a trader. Sort of like a quant but I'm not weird.

>>15138358
I'm waiting to start at a new position, as I explained. I'll probably never get to do this again.

>>15138279
I think >>15138416 is right about XRP. I MAY be wrong.

I don't spend a ton of time on cryptos. I'm more relaying the 'market consensus' of big fund managers than coming up with my own thesis here. Most of the real world whales think XRP is a bust now.

I'm not as confident about even ETH as >>15138416 is but ETH has more support/more real bulls than XRP, for sure.

>>15138449
As I explained, all shitcoins are most likely going to get smashed, and ETH is no different.

>>15138443
I'm not even that experienced. I'm just obsessed with the financial markets. Still a lot of people in the business that I can learn from who do circles around me intellectually.


>>15138416
>>15138416
>>15138416

>>15137612
>CBOE abandoned BTC futures in March, allowing BTC to go parabolic.

CBOE had a fraction of the trading volume of CME, so I don't think this is a good assumption of causality

>>15138508
Yeah, you're absolutely right. However, the timing really does get the noggin joggin.

Also CME BTC volume isn't great.

>>15137612
Why do you think Libra target launch in the first half of 2020 ( as they mention in their whitepaper), will SHTF and they want to take advantage of it to appeal to the masses? Also they mention that LIBRA will be backed by low-volatility assets such as short-term government securities and bank deposits, what exactly will those securities might be?

>>15138434
Surprisingly, I've managed to figure it out my myself that the market is slowing down, but not significantly.
However what I find troubling is where exactly should I start. I'm being drowned by forex, for short term profits, but should I look elsewhere, or just go safer with indexes or bonds ?

Thanks a bunch dude, you're really helping me out.

>>15138490
>I'm waiting to start at a new position, as I explained. I'll probably never get to do this again.
Yeah my mistake, attention span etc like you mentioned

>My new job is on a trading desk for one of the biggest players. I'm not a trader. Sort of like a quant but I'm not weird.
What is the position called? What background is needed to get in?

>>15138416
Completely wrong. Ripple is being used (xRapid) solution by a few entities. xCurrent (doesnt use XRP) has much more entities using it currently. Nobody is using ETH right now for anything. Just saying, dont mean to offend.

https://decrypt.co/5313/complete-ripple-partnerships-xrapid-xrp

http://rppl.info/

>>15138476
False

>>15138490
I agree that ETH has incredible hype, but as of now, no product. People can argue PoS ETH 2.0 is right around the corner, but until I see it, eth is just another Dapp platform that can't run anything serious. Dont get me wrong though, major alts are going to pump hard again, against BTC (ETH XRP LTC ect).

>>15138490
>I'm not even that experienced. I'm just obsessed with the financial markets
In your opinion, do you think it is even possible to learn as much about financial markets on your own, as you could working on a trading desk?

>>15137670
>I work on a trading desk

Could you please tell these morons on biz that TA actually works and they've been ignorant to be so dismissive of it?

>>15138092
Unemployed larper.

>>15138638
>Completely wrong. Ripple is being used (xRapid) solution by a few entities. xCurrent (doesnt use XRP) has much more entities using it currently. Nobody is using ETH right now for anything. Just saying, dont mean to offend.
Let me rephrase. I haven't heard of a single bank holding XRP. All I've seen is standalone ripple nodes doing settlement.

>>15137612
>just now realizing this

>>15138638
I think your take is a good middle point. In general, street is very bearish on Ripple.

>>15138550
I don't think it is because they think SHTF in H1 2020. I think it is because the rollout will take some time to prepare for.

Libra is backed by a basket of securities denominated in multiple currencies so it isn't overly exposed to one currency. Probably treasuries of G20 countries and such. I'm not a Libra expert, again, I'm more relaying what those who have dug into it (and are actually in notable positions in high finance) have said.

>>15138576
I don't know how well you're doing short-term. In general, my advice is to get a job in finance and make some millions before you worry about running your own account. For your retirement savings or whatever, lets just say I wouldn't be overweight equities.

I think the next downturn will cause the fed to act like the BOJ, QE will be massively extended, may be 'we are MMT now' to get some inflation targeting.

>>15138596
Can't say too much or it'll expose me. But just a general finance background.

>>15138649
It is very possible but you need to network.

The first time I visited a Wall Street trading desk at a major bank, I was 18 years old.

You need some people to guide you to the knowledge you need.

>>15138674
Yeah, most of the forex/macro traders use a lot of TA. In some markets, the price action actually means something because of fixings etc.

TA alone doesn't work. TA is a tool to analyze how things are priced in, how things may move, not to independently form a thesis.

>>15137913
That's until tech progresses to a point where a sc/dapp protocol becomes good enough (scalable and secure enough) to be widely adopted. Right now none of the leading platforms can scale to meet enterprise needs (cosmos being an exception).

The exciting thing to look out for is stuff like fantom with their insanely fast lachesis consensus which allows any wxiating blockchain to plug in and take advantage of the instant finality and hight tx throughput.

Basically, fantom becomes an ultra fast distributed computing protocol which will scale the entire blockchcain ecosystem making the useful once again. Think of it in terms of creating the internet of blockchain instead of the current set up where each blockchain is trying to tackle a different problem in a silo, kinda like intranets before the internet was created.

With fantom, all of a sudden, an eth dapp could scale to meet consumer demand, that same app could pull data from another platform (let's say, an accounting database on Factom blokchchain) and make it all work seamlessly together.

>>15138746
I accept you are not a larp, so Im gonna ask a question for educational purposes.

Where so you get your info from? How do you learn all this stuff? What people are you talking to? What kinda circles does one have to be in to get into big boys club?

>>15137612
>only BTC matters

See, that's the kind of talk I fully expect from East Coast finance types that think crypto's only use case is as a store of value

What the fuck do Wall Street faggots know about dapps and smart contracts?

>>15138795
You're wasting your time with FTM. ONE is where your attention should be right now

>>15138809
Honestly dude, luck and drive.

I didn't go to the right school and I didn't get the best grades. I had a friend who was several years older who got me started out of highschool.

Reading a fuck ton. Reading the perspectives/insights pages from major investment banks.

Use resources like RealVision. Anything that allows you to learn from actual financial greats.

Don't read meme bullshit.

Know the math. if you cant calculate the NPV of a bond in your head, you should read a book.

For new sources, WSJ and FT are the only reputable mainstream sources that are also cheap enough for anyone to get a subscription to. People on the street do actually read Zerohedge, its run by some old sellside guys.

>>15138853
I agree that smart contracts have applications. That's why I'm bearish, if you read what I have to say.

West Coast tech bros are the type that baghold Tesla and buy BYND at 240.

>>15138906
Please don’t cast aspersions on my LINK dreams, I don’t have much else going for me :(

>>15137913

>General consensus on the street is cryptos will consolidate to BTC and corporate-backed tethered products like Libra.

Libra isn't going to make it. Facebook is already walking back some of the hype to it's investors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/facebook-warns-investors-that-libra-may-never-see-the-light-of-day.html

RSR/RSV will take its place.

>>15138906
Appriciate your effort.

>>15137913
I disagree with BTC being the sole consolidated investment.

What about corporate backed projects like Chainlink and Ethereum? It seems the network is being supported by the biggest players. And Chainlink especially has been net positive against BTC the last year.

>>15138746
Thanks for the replies, and sorry for calling you a larper. It is clear that you know what you are talking about.

How big a drop do you think we will see in US equities when the crash actually happens? When would be the right time to take a position in a long term treasury product? Seems like it might be late already...

>>15138009
So bitcoin will die because there are too many bitcoin competitors and it is a failed investment thesis?

>>15138928
A corporate-coalition backed crypto, whether its WMT or FB or JPM, is inevitable at this point. Due to the hype.

FB just has no political capital.
>>15138966
No problem. If you have any other questions, let me know.

Try and work in finance. Otherwise, you're just a baggy.
>>15138974
You may be right. My point in posting this view is more that it is the consensus view by big dicks in finance, not that it is necessarily correct.

I don't think LINK will have the staying power because
A) corporate coalitions a la Libra are more powerful
B) next iteration of smart contract tech inevitable
C) no catalyst for widespread adoption in a world with Libra-link platforms

>>15138985
No clue. I think we could be in for a big crisis b.c. of underfunded pensions + boomers start retiring this year + overlevered corporates + international supply chains collapsing + japanified Europe + populism.

could be big.

It isn't too late. I think the fed cuts again this year, maybe 50bps in September.

US raes WILL BE negative this cycle. Remember, rates trend in a direction. One-and-done cuts aren't a thing.

How you want to play this depends. Do you think the cuts won't be enough to re-steepen the curve? Then long-term treasuries won't be a good play.

Europe has 13 trillion in negative yielding debt. The US will join this club.
>>15139015
No, I think there is a very high probability that bitcoin will outperform longterm. Bitcoin has the staying power - there will just be consolidation.

>>15138009
>Chainlink? The mere proliferation of smart contract coins proves the consolidation thesis. I wouldn't bet on the long-term success of any altcoins.


Well clearly there is a miscalculation in your thesis. There is only 1 oracle network and that is Chainlink.

The "proliferation of smart contract coins" or platforms only strengthen the case for Chainlink since it is the standard in the way TCP/IP is and every platform will be using it. Any competing project that tries to enter this space only complicates and creates an inefficient smart contract adopted scenario. much the same way a competing internet protocol would create confusion and inefficiencies if they would try and break into the market today.

Sure, the truth is, as you stated, No one uses smart contracts... yet. But that is because Chainlink just launched its mainnet two months ago. making Smart contracts available, finally.

Much like the dotcom boom of the 2000s, B2B will be the first to implement these applications. We are already seeing happen now.

When is the best time to buy btc?

>>15139043
>Bitcoin has the staying power - there will just be consolidation.

Why though? By your own logic this is not the case.

>>15139043
*then long term treasuries would be a good play

>>15139056
We will see. I think, for the most part, the 'crypto backed by Oracle wooo' is akin to pennystocks announcing big contracts.

>>15139080
It doesn't really matter if it's inferior tech or whatever, same as gold.

You may be right but money isn't going into bitcoin because its the most innovative because that doesn't really matter.

>>15139073
2011

>>15139043
>I don't think LINK will have the staying power because
>A) corporate coalitions a la Libra are more powerful
>B) next iteration of smart contract tech inevitable
>C) no catalyst for widespread adoption in a world with Libra-link platforms


Well, lets discuss this.

Chainlink, LINK is the key to making Libra work. Much in the same way Reserve (backed buy coinbase) uses Chainlink.

In order for Libra to be a "decentrlized token" option LINK is needed.

>>15138906
Good thread OP. Restore my faith in /biz/

>>15139106
I should rephrase this

Smart contract platforms (LINK, ETH, etc) catch a bid because of their technology and future adoption of their tech.

I think this is a bad play because in all likelihood they will be outcompeted by better tech.

Bitcoin is akin to gold, store of value. Tech innovation won't impact it because it is what we use to get exposure to digital assets.

>>15138868
Nah, ONE is pretty cool. Is basically a bunch of eth code with a sharding implementation. It doesnt have the same scope as what Fantom is meant to achieve. ONE can thrive along the other scalable smart contract platforms.

Fantom aims to allow them to all operate seamlessly together. Build a dapp on harmony which interacts with smart contracts on Etherem and stores data on Bitcoin as a basic example.

>>15137612
>mfw i realize the only important thing to get from this thread is that institutions are going to buy my bags at a ridiculous premium

Lmao

>>15139106


I do agree though that Chainlink is an unkown and missunderstood project to the bigs in finance. Its logical that they see Bitcoin only. It is the oldest and most proven secure investment. However, I do believe that once the smart contract economy kicks in Chainlink will be undeniably the chosen protocol and necessary investment in future portfolios.

We shall see.

>>15139122
FB hasn't confirmed this. i don't think the 'oracle problem' is too great for FB.

>may be very wrong. Don't take this as trading advice.

Everything Sergey has said = sounds like some pennystock pumper.

>>15139148
This is the most important takeaway from what I'm saying. I am much less laying out a thesis and much more laying out the consensus view by those with money.

>>15139130


Just for clarifications.

Eth = smart contract platform
LINK = Oracle network.

The two are completely different and can't exist without the other in real world B2B and B2I applications.

>>15139130
This this and this. BTC being dinosaur tech is ideal for its purpose. It is unbreakable, and there will be competition for hash power soon enough between countries.

If LINK does not depend on ETH and can function regardless of blockchain type, it will go far. Otherwise, if the big ship sinks, so will it

Good thread OP. Surprised we have good posters still here.

>>15139179
Edit

I should say that LINK and any Smart contract platform like ETH (since LINK is blockchain agnostic) cant esist without the other in real worl B2B and.... etc.

>>15139179
What your price target and time horizon (doesn't have to be too specific, I know theres no good way to model this)? What will spur wide-spread adoption? Good tech doesn't mean its a good asset.

>>15139193
I rarely post or even visit here anymore. It's a shit show. Cures the boredom, though.

Alltho you said you dont work on a trade desk, what indicators/ta do big guys use?

Because I fucking know it aint no fucking eliot waves crap.

>>15139106
>There is only 1 oracle network and that is Chainlink
>'crypto backed by Oracle wooo'
he doesn't know

>>15137612
Good thread op

10x your crypto with moon3d. bonus schemes awaits

Can you link bag holders move on already, this guy is wasting his brain cells on your token which we have already dedicated half this thread to.

Lets talk more about the macro factors that will start to effect BTC in the next few years

>>15139130
Can you expound more on what it is other than its current name recognition, the fact that millenials like it, the fact that it is "what you use" to get connected to digital currency markets that you think gives it value primarily over some other coin?

>>15139226
>RealVision
Any book recs op? Currently in school for finance. Gunning for a trading desk somewhere after college.

>>15139106
>crypto backed by Oracle wooo

you mean backed by Oracle, Microsoft, Salesforce, SWIFT, Google and Facebook

>>15137612
will there be mass suicide by /biz stinky LINKies?

>>15139323
you just said it

>>15139130
Allow me to redpill you on Hedera Hashgraph. The hashgraph consensus algorithm is objectively better than everything else, achieveing asynchronous byzantine fault tolerance. It reaches the theoretical limit of security on the internet, and does so with virtually zero bandwidth overhead and extremely high throughput; latency to consensus is about 3 seconds on average. Everyone will call Hedera "closed source" and "centralized", but this is knee-jerk reddit-tier FUD; Hedera has a clear path towards decentralization, with open code review and open participation in consensus, they are simply taking every precaution possible while bootstrapping their network. Hedera has a legal team and full regulatory compliance; this is not a negative. Bitcoin=China and Hedera=US, old money will never truly pump btc; Hedera will be the first crypto with an ETF, they are delivering everything ethereum promised the world. Hedera Hashgraph is engineering a new asset type: a scarce digital bearer instrument with zero counterparty risk, but with an associated and intrinsic return from staking. An asset like this has never existed in history and it will pull trillions, not billions. Anyway I hope you read this I hardly ever post

>>15139130
Essentially you are saying Link is not a good long term play because there will be better ways to do oracles in the future. That is debatable but let's just assume that is correct.

Now let's look at the medium term. There are no other oracle providers that are as technically complete and as populat as Link. Nearly all smart contract platforms currently in development are using link as their oracle provider. It is the standard.

Combine that with the fact that oracles are the final piece of the puzzle to enable truly working smart contracts, and you see why we think it's a big deal. The next iteration of smart contracts will be external data aware programs powered by link.

Maybe that will make it a bit more clear why there are so many linkers.

>>15139226
>Price and time horizon?

LINK = $10 by end of September. Possibly $20 - $30 end of year.

>What will spur wide-spread adoption?"

I believe we will see the reasons surface by September. the implications of PSD2 being one. Corporations and banking that will announce moving towards a smart contract/blockchain future being another.

>Good tech doesn't mean its a good asset.

This is true. Chainlink is specifically an investment with the idea that smart contracts is/and will be a big part of our future. Starting 2019 and a heavy move towards SCs in 2020.

>>15137851
As a founder/CEO of a tech company from Silicon Valley, fuck you wallstreet parasites. Your only validation is to provide us liquidity and make money off the arbitrage.

We are already coming after you and redesigning your finance infrastructure. With algorithms and DNN’s doing the transactional side and analysis, you human tokens will soon not be required.

>>15139130
Eh, I was kind of interested in your perspective until this post showed your grandpa mentality. BTC as an onramp to digital assets has already seen its day in the sun, we have plenty of direct access to other digital assets. I don't think BTC will die but in terms the "store of value" argument that's boomer speak and shows you have very little insight into the current landscape for crypto. Finance is a leech industry, they capitalize on the successes of other industries. People in finance generally do not have an awareness of the technological landscapes and are "late comers" 99% of the time (hence why all you retards are just now, 10 years later, jumping on the BTC bandwagon). You just proved yourself to be not an exception.

Additionally, you clearly don't understand just how huge of a gap cryptos like LINK & ETH are creating for a newcomer to have to fill. By the time the proper legislation rolls around and allows the big boys to play, their best hope will be acquisitions of assets. It would make zero business sense for them to try to replicate ETH.

Also all your garbage talk about Libra which is riddled with flaws and question marks currently, isn't even a true cryptocurrency, and actually needs a service like LINK to be relevant... yet somehow because your finance bros are talking about it you think it's going to be relevant without support from the real tech behind crypto. It won't be, sorry. Finance bros are about on par w/ the average normie it seems.

Thanks for the lesson.

>>15139392
>the implications of PSD2 being one.
The LINK/PSD2 connections have been massively overstated. If you believe this will move the price on the PSD2 deadline date you will be bitterly disappointed.
>Corporations and banking that will announce moving towards a smart contract/blockchain future being another.
Yes is true but will take at least another year. Things are being worked on without any public fanfare.

Wish I knew this a week ago, so still good arb

>>15139226
>What will spur wide-spread adoption?

being able to fire a large portion of back office staff while making a huge 2%-10% gain on earnings

>>15139373
Fantom will beat hedera to market with Lachesis aBFT consensus. I believe hashgraph will be tremendously successful but with fantom being permissionless, it should gain a lot of traction from startups and even corporate entities.

>>15139471
fantom is a fucking pajeet tier shitcoin. get the fuck off of this board.

>>15139488
You are an absolute brainlet or willfully blind. You can literally look at what is developped for yourself and interact with the testnet.

Won't be much longer until idiots like you are unable to deny the evidence in front of them. Fucking kek

>>15139305
The best macro factors for BTC


1. Currency war
2. Euro collapse
3. a collapse in confidence of governments world wide.

1. is self explanatory. There will be a race for peoples investments between China and the US. You will see lower business taxes and currency inflation.

2. Euro as we know it is dying. It was a bad idea from the start. It transferred unsustainable debt to the countries that don't have the same GDP and output that the other financially robust countries of the EU had mainly Germany and France. Almost all the other countries, spain, italy, greece etc.. switched to the Euro but didn't make enough to pay back debts in the EURO. simple.

3. The collapse in confidence of governments is pushing investment to the US. We are seeing this in failed bond sales and a rising US stockmarket. People are fleeing to what they feel is safe. Regardless of what you think of Trump, being pro America, America first is giving investors confidence. thats why we are seeing record highs in the stock market.

All of these factors will also effect BTC. Money will find its way to BTC since it is, as OP stated, the millennial gold.

>>15139373
>a scarce digital bearer instrument with zero counterparty risk, but with an associated and intrinsic return from staking. An asset like this has never existed in history and it will pull trillions, not billions.

strange, cause that sounds like chainlink

also, when hedera made a video going over their partners, they picked out CL out of their hundreds of partners to explain. kek they were quick to toot that horn

basically, nice cope

>>15139471
see
>>15139488
Hashgraph has been in development since 2012 with Swirlds founded in 2016. Fantom is literally a hashgraph knockoff. THIS is why Hashgraph is patented. There will never be any legal copycat or fork of Hedera. No Hedera classic, no Hedera cash, just one stable ledger. But all these fucking idiot redditors can do is brainlessly parrot "centralized" and "closed source". Old money will flow into Hedera whether you fags like it or not

>>15139488
https://twitter.com/WeissCrypto/status/1145774095818252290?s=19

>>15139542
If they copied hashgraph it implies they somehow had access to the code no? Somehow I find that very unlikely. Andre had been working of aBFT with Sikoba for years.

You can reach similar results by taking different approaches.

GLHF

>>15139392
Id also like to point out. that I think LINKs true place in crypto is #3 market cap. and currently all the other projects that stand in the way really have no impact in crypto.

Its going to be

BTC
ETH
LINK

This will take LINK into the 30s. To test this theory just ask yourself if any project from #4 to #16 (projects in front of LINK) were to dissapear what would happen in the crypto space?

100% all of them would not make a dent. The only thing that would effect crypto is

if Bitcoin was proven vulnerable and hacked. It would destroy this space.

If Ethereum was hacked and ceased to exist it would set back the smart contracts another 10 years.

If LINK proved ineffective and ceased to exist it would set back the coming smart contract economy another 10 years as well.


Any other project on that list dissappears and no one will care except for the investors. Im talking about LTC, ADA, NEO, even BNB. all of them. If they disappeared today it wouldn't effect anything.

>>15139410
The only thing you're good at consistently producing is net operating losses because somehow your friends on the east coast can still peddle your garbage companies to bagholders.

>>15139392
Anyone have a 5 year price target?

I want to hear about a world in which current tech will have wide spread adoption by major players.

>>15139535
Leemon Baird literally holds the record for fastest PhD at Carnegie Mellon. Hashgraph is a bonefide breakthrough in computer science. Sergey is just a child. Watch and be amazed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjQkag6VOo0

>>15139305
Link must succeed!

>>15139597
aiight and we've got the dude who coined the term Proof-of-Work as an advisor and we bought out his project

there are thousands of universities... i'd be impressed if it was "fastest in the state" or "in the country"

>>15139591
>ese factors will also effect BTC. Money will find its way to BTC since it is,


In 5 years, I believe smart contracts will be in full swing. Mass adopted on the b2b level at least.

This means derivatives, insurance all of it and still growing. The question I have for you is how big are those markets in total? If smartcontracts were to be used by 10% of those markets what are we talking about? what if only 5% of those markets? I think you know the number is astronomical.

I believe LINK will be in the $1000s in 5 years. Much like I believe BTC will be in the 100,000s to maybe even 1 million.

>>15139591
>The only thing you're good at consistently producing is net operating losses
Kek

>>15139652
Id like to add

"the dude who coined the term Proof-of-Work" was the co-writer of the Chainlink whitepaper. and yeah hes and advisor as well.

>>15139567
The protocol is clearly spelled out, anyone could spin up a sub-par implementaion. Patents are just an official deterrent so enterprises know which ledger is the true one. As for enterprises, currently sitting on the Hedera council is the biggest bank in Japan, the biggest telecom in europe, one of the biggest law firms in the world, among others. Hedera is for adults, go play with your little shitcoin

>>15139654
Id like to expand

However, in 10 years. when LINK proves itself to be stable, secure as we see Bitcoin now, I believe that LINK will eventually surpass Bitcoins marketcap.

The reason? the simple fact that the data market far outweighs the money market.

If you have 2 standards

a protocol that transfers money/value
a protocol that transfers data

and everyone must use these protocols. Which one do you invest in long term?

Actually it’s not even remotely correlated with macroeconomic factors yet you fucking idiot. Anyone with half a brain can see it’s still completely controlled by barting whales

>>15139171
Good thread! Broadly agree.
However, what are you talking about here?
>Everything Sergey has said = sounds like some pennystock pumper.
It's pretty clear you have some fairly fundamental misunderstanding of the product, but I'm curious what in particular triggered your bs detector.

>>15139684
We shall see. The difference between you and me is that I have no issue throwing some dough at hashgraph while on the other hand, you seem to have taken a fanboy partisan stance. You are a very dedicated cheerleader, I'll give you that.

>>15139652
>>15139674
Chainlink will only be worth anything if the ledger it's built on can support real-world use cases. Hedera is the only public ledger that can ACTUALLY scale. Hedera has FINALITY and FAIRNESS, properties which no blockchain has. Finality makes sharding the network much easier. In fact, i'm not sure you can shard without it

>>15139780
Anon, Hedera is using Chainlink

>>15139780


When we say everyone will be using Chainlink and it is the standard much like TCP/IP we mean it.

https://cryptobriefing.com/hedera-smart-contracts-chainlink/

>>15137913
>Alts, in general, are a failed investment thesis
retard

>>15137612
I like your style. I agree with you about the alts, except possibly one; Monero. What are your thoughts about it?

>>15139780
~1000 transactions for the price of one isnt good enough for you?

>>15139780
~1000 transactions for the price of 1 isnt good enough for you?

BTC is completely fucking useless and can be represented on the Ethereum network as WBTC. ALL of the financial applications are being built on Ethereum, and the most important of them are ALREADY FUNCTIONAL. This is mass-delusion and a complete lack of understanding of this industry. You may know FX, but you sure as hell don't fucking understand crypto. Get the fuck out of here.

>>15139767
Ethereum is going nowhere fast, anyone with eyes can see that. Hedera is literally the future of finance. With the FAIRNESS property we actually put the stock market on Hedera. This is not possible witha blockchain as miners can arbitrarily decicide which txs get included in a block, and in what order. Blockchain is inferior technology, the new economy will be built on Hedera

>>15139581
Monero

>>15139879


and with that Hedera needs Chainlink to succeed.

>>15139370
all those things are ethereal though, I was looking for him to address the cost to attack and security model being central to the value

>>15139728
Ding ding ding, that's why we buy this shit, because data is today's gold.

>>15139896
privacy will always have a place. But governments will come down hard on that. The hunt for taxes is real.

top 10 yes. but Its more risky and big money doesn't like risky. simple.

>>15139148
>most proven secure investment
>BTC
>proven secure
That's fucking baloney. Mining fees diminish over time and there is no *provable* way to make sure it is economically feasible to continue investing in mining equipment. Literally the only solution to diminishing returns is either rely on BTC's price to continue pumping FOREVER, or to switch to an inflationary model. To switch to an inflationary model that is provable secure (economic security proofs) completely obliterates the idea of "BTC being sound money".

Cope

>>15137612
nice thread OP

>>15139513
>developped

pajeet

>>15139879
>Ethereum is going nowhere fast
You provide no proof for this claim.
You faggots are done for long term. BTC is going to collapse bad. Screenshot this.

Ethereum is king.

>>15139795
>Anon, Hedera is using Chainlink
Chainlink is using Hedera
>>15139806
>>15139868
Don't lecture me on Chainlink. I was here in '17 and shilled it before dumping at the Sibos conference. Chainlink was always just a meme with a good narrative, but technologically nothing too impressive. Leemon Baird fucking solved the problem of consensus at scale and nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care. By my right hand I will fucking cure this board of it's retardation

>>15139171
>FB hasn't confirmed this. i don't think the 'oracle problem' is too great for FB.

Evan Chen (head of Libra project) has been a technical adivsor for Chainlink since the ICO

>>15138009
OP, do you give any credence to a Metcalfes law price analysis of Bitcoin? I was reading a study that said its price per user very closely fit the Metcalfes law curve, except with a slightly different exponent than traditionaly(1.8 instead of 2, or something).

>>15139728
jesus you shitcoin link brainlets dont understand putting data on a shitty blockchain (eth) is useless? You can write wrong data on the blockchain then what... you have wrong data on a blockchain. total useless scam.

the way this guy continuously shits on the valley actually made me lol

OP is nothing but a fucking retard

Why would you take this idiots advice when he doesn't even understand tech and seriously name dropped BYND and TSLA like people in san francisco give a fuck about either of those boomer companies lmao

>>15139902
Hedera will not only be the basis of the new global economy, but the actual TRUST LAYER of the internet. Hedera does 100k tx/s in a SINGLE SHARD, and the APIs for their consensus service can be plugged into anything. IMB Hyperledger was part of the consensus service announcement. Enterprises are moving away from Eth and toward Hedera
>>15139959
Imagine being this deluded

>>15139965
Please do rid this board of these bag holders who are convinced it is the second coming

>>15137612
>>15137670
Don't even try OP, I've been repeating it pretty much since BTC hit 10k - the moment the big money flood in, you start playing according to their rules, which rules are typically in the lines of "if my stock positions tank, I'm liquidating this shit asap to cover for the losses in the real world where it matters". It is, in the shortest possible way to put it, a ladder of risk with crypto being at the very top of the ladder. The moment the economy starts entering the turbulence is the moment most of those people (if not all) would prefer to dial back on risk and step one step downwards in the ladder of risk, the step where they don't hold any risky crypto and brace for the recession.

But no matter how much you repeat it the retards here will always ignore it and proceed to shill their favorite coin and seethingly try to convince you why you're wrong and why they're about to become millionaires. By explaining to them that crypto is about to go back to pre-institutional levels of $500 BTC you're basically destroying their dreams, which triggers them quite a lot.

>>15140043
>closed source being the trust layer of new global economy.
rofl. too bad it's closed source and we cannot review its flaws eh?

>>15140010
>putting data on a shitty blockchain (eth) is useless?
ahahahahhahhaahahahhahahaahhahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahaahhaha

Kek, fags, look at that armr privacy coin on p2p.. low supp , no one noticed it get listed. Privacy always has tendency to moon up

>>15139986
>Metcalfes law price analysis
I think the stock/flow model I posted earlier is pretty solid.

I think transaction costs (historically spikes in transaction costs have proceeded spikes in BTC volatility), the quality of members of the 'network' (buy and hold vs traders vs transactions in real economy), and a few other variables arent accounted for in a network based analysis.
E.g. see this >>15139947
gets noggins joggins

>>15140042
I'm a little too harsh on valley, they do build incredible companies for your short book.

NIRP babies.

>>15140081
The hashgraph consensus algorithm is objectively better than everything else, achieveing asynchronous byzantine fault tolerance. It reaches the theoretical limit of security on the internet, and does so with virtually zero bandwidth overhead and extremely high throughput; latency to consensus is about 3 seconds on average. Everyone will call Hedera "closed source" and "centralized", but this is knee-jerk reddit-tier FUD; Hedera has a clear path towards decentralization, with open code review and open participation in consensus, they are simply taking every precaution possible while bootstrapping their network

>>15140078
Yeah, seeing how quickly this thread devolved into shitcoin talk, there is truly no hope.

>>15140043
You sound like a nano fag
>b-but it's faster!
>b-but it's more trustworthy
>b-but i missed out on ETH so I'm coping by trying to put my hopes and dreams into an investment that came after
Shut the fuck up. Picrelated is all you need to know about why Ethereum is king. There isn't a SINGLE blockchain out there (including LINK) that has this much of it's own supply locked up in useable applications.
Supply and demand. It's really that simple.

>>15140133
READ THE POST ABOVE YOU. READ ALL MY POSTS. BY MY FUCKING RIGHT HAND I WILL CURE THIS BOARD OF IT'S CANCER

>>15140123
Um look. No one is asking about hedera here. Can you shill on another board.

This conversation is great without boomer tps talk. Please leave. Thank you


I'm more interested in macro economic philosophy and their Chainlink.

>>15139947
>returns are less each time
did you miss this?

>>15140133
What's your thought on GBTC? How can Barry Silbert fuck us if we buy shares?

>>15140211
Edit

*this (not their)

>>15140186
>useable applications
Kek, gl with eth 2.0, maybe cats wont crash your network this time. Hashgraph is unequivocally the best project in crypto. There is no hand waving, no empty promises, no autistic skeleton who thinks he can put the whole world on a blockchain... infact it turns out solidity itself is a bottleneck to hashgraph

>>15140211
Chainlink is goddamn cancer. It's time to stop

>>15140192
Will do in a second.

>>15140221
GBTC is sketch b.c. of consistent discrepancies between NAV and equity value.

High fee explains current discount to NAV.

No reason to buy it unless you can't hold BTC through other methods.

>>15140192
Will do, distracted w/ filling out paperwork for new job.

>>15140276
you're a fucking retard mate. I hope you lose all your money and get disowned by everyone.

>>15140078
>you start playing according to their rules
Just fuck off. They're playing by our rules which we defined in code. Traders are the most deluded people in the world, you have no clue what you're doing or why you're doing it but still pretend like you can lecture the devs who made the fucking assets have value in the first place. You would never be able to identify an opportunity like Bitcoin until a huge market has been created around it because you're a follower. An NPC that just goes with the flow and makes some money on the way.

>>15139742
Missed this.

He does the typical Elon Musk-tier move whenever he is asked a question about something that may be a positive for his co. - he doesn't flat out deny, says he can't talk about it.

Broadly, his economic incentives and actions are not aligned with those of his bagholders. However, crypto folks tend to be like that, so might not be too much of a red flag lol.

>>15140112
yeah i'm sure buddy

you finance faggots are so fucking lame while still pompous

glad to graduate from nyu stern and got the fuck out of NYC almost a decade ago

guess what, silicon valley shits on you idiots

lose the ego

there are tons of real companies

hot money and ZIRP is all finance's fault anyway. nice circular logic retard.

even evil companies like SNAPCHAT do way more than that shit you do. wow you moved money around. cool story bro.

this thread sucks btw. all of this is obvious to anyone with a degree or understanding of financial markets.

you're not an insider bye loser

>>15140353
BTC and ETH were my first two investments. Paid for a lot of my college expenses.

Most devs are tunnel focused on producing good tech but never think about the demand side of the equation (read: every bull thesis on /biz/ - rumors and the tech is good, the 'tech is good' almost never comes with a clear adoption roadmap).

Similar to traders. Bad traders can't think about the tech, the long term trends. They're bad traders.

Devs can be good w/o thinking about demand side but can't be leaders.

>>15140391
Bye!

Make sure to remember me if you ever go public, I need my commissions!

>>15140192

So basically your turning a great conversation into a shit one.

OP had genuine questions about Chainlink. No one is asking about Hedera as the other poster said.

>>15137612
>There is a MAJOR arbitrage opportunity here as big moves often occur in one currency pair before they occur in another.
Can you give some examples of this

good thread OP

ps. LINK is absolutely not a tech play. the tech is merely sufficient. it’s about creating a Schelling point for a general purpose market for trusted delivery of information from and to anything, including self-executing contracts. creating this buy-in, and achieving domination in this market before anybody else realises it exists would not be possible without the token. search the web for ‘welcome to the trust market’.

good luck at the new gig.

>>15140500
E.g. using tape of major currency/btc pairs, price moving volume spikes occur in one direction (and in one currency) with a little lag before the whole market.

Allows you to also explain why that move occurred (geopolitical/FX move?) which can tell you have permanent the move is.

Some currencies lag others, some lead others, depending on where the volume is.

Also BTC provides an interesting view of FX pairs in controlled currencies e.g. the overpriced KRWBTC pair in 2017 was a good indicator that KRW fixing was heading to deval

Here you can get an idea but too zoomed out to really send it home

>>15140456
OP is an adult looking for good info, Chainlink is just a meme

>>15140612
Thanks a lot! what is this charting platform you use? Looks really good

Based wallstreet anon can you give me a bit of information on how to find better oppurtunitys overall? Im spearheading the trading desk for all investments at a startup along with marketing and online presence, we have 3 employees but are managing almost 100million already. If I can find better oppurtunities I could turn this into a 7 figure job. What should I be looking at and looking for? What data is important that I should be paying attention to?
Right now were all in bonds and a small amount of precious metals and have beat the market by a lot, what should I look at for my next play?

>>15140717
Cannabis where it actually grows, South America and Thailand

>>15139226
Get a trip code before this thread ends and come back again sempai, best /biz/ thread for ages

>>15140685
Its Koyfin, I just use it when I don't have bloomberg terminal access.

>>15140717
What asset classes do you all cover?

How did you get the 100MM of AUM? Do you have a big enough network to grow it out? What type of clients are these?

Data -> what data will give you an edge?

At 100MM in AUM, you can make a lot better returns than the big boys because you can play in less liquid markets.

Nowadays, theres so much data available, you can make very informed bets in small markets by finding the right data for it. Have some ideas but don't really wanna put em out there incase I go buyside lol.

>>15140783
>>15140783
Never liked a tripfag but I'll do it just incase.

May dump some threads in the coming days out of boredom, although less of a crypto focus.

>>15140010
That's what the fucking oracle does, ensure SC gets reliable data .Low tier FUD.

>>15140856
need a better name

>>15140856
>May dump some threads in the coming days out of boredom, although less of a crypto focus.
Please do, this is the best thread I have seen in months

dear opie
speaking of yurop:
I am of the opinion that underfunded pension liabilities running on pay-as-you-go taxation schemes, demographic collapse (inversion of the population pyramid) and xenophobia (inability to absorb immigrants and heightened competition for both public and scarce resources) will lead to a total collapse of the European economy as populist governments scramble to seize control of capital for redistribution through strict capital controls or worse still proscription, leading to those with liquid capital (e.g. equities, fixed income, cash or cash equivalents) to sell en masse and park their wealth in 'safe' assets. Gold, while a historical store of value, is yet liable to seizure and control by coercive governments. Furthermore, asteroid mining is a possibility and were one to be brought to Earth gold, silver and other REMs would collapse in price. Cryptocurrency, on the other hand, is both 'real' and ephemeral at the same time. I believe panicked masters of capital will choose crypto as a safer option as it is free from any form of control.

Are you of a similar opinion? Pls share ur thoughts thx

>>15140856
What's your opinion on quant? Gilbert is obviously very well connected but its effectively just a loicense for using over ledger. Don't want to buy more at this price...

>>15140856
What're your thoughts on monero?

OP is some dumbfuck junior analyst on a desk.
or some spreadsheet monkey

either way this is newfag central

>>15139965
No, Hedera will be using Chainlink to bring data off chain to on chain. And Chainlink doesn't depend on the scalability of ETH https://blog.chain.link/threshold-signatures-in-chainlink/

>>15140892
yeah I do, I'm not feeling very creative
>>15140916
if y'all are interest in it, I'll do a semi-regular macro/markets writeup of what people on the street are talking about
>>15140937
good themes here in general. Eurobanks are shitting the bed. The new EU central bank chief has IMF/legal background, probably because of impending bailouts.

Europe is probably fucked. The US will follow a similar path due to demographic timebomb and underfunded pension liabilities.
>>15140973
my spreadsheets fuck heavy

>>15140807
We cover mostly equitys and bonds, some CD's when bonds aren't looking good. We usually dont invest in commoditys but the PM play was too good to pass up. What lower liquidity areas should i be looking at? We got out of REIT's recently because they are starting to get JUST'd hard.

Individual clients with high networth makes up the most of the 100mm, we have a small subset of small buisness that we manage qualified accounts for. We grow a ton through our network currently with the owner having moved from a much larger firm with no non-compete in place, but I've already dragged in about 6mm of it from online, so growing the capital base is not something im currently worried about, I'm more worried about growing what we already have.

I mostly do trend investing following a couple sources that have worked out very well these past couple years which has provided stable returns, with some small data gathering on the side to make short term plays. I am self taught and dont even have a CFP but am up almost 13% YoY, I need to make bigger plays though and have no idea how to find the data to get positioned for a play before it pans out so I'm not making those big returns like 20%+ if I had gotten in position before the markets started moving.

>>15140973
this is a better name, thanks

>>15141012
The US demographic timebomb is several orders of magnitude less than Europe’s.

>>15141028
If I had known you were black earlier I would have saved some time. Sombitch.

>>15141023
Small cap REITs are nice b.c. you can scrape data that nobody uses on them and create very accurate models.

My focus if playing smaller markets would be on finding good data (that other people aren't using, that are highly predictive) and generating trade ideas off the data. Vague but broad b.c. most do the opposite.

>>15140807
just a question on real estate if you have any opinions. What do you think of the current market? Looking to buy a condo within the next 2-5 years. Opinions on REIT?
Thanks in advance

>>15141012
>if y'all are interest in it, I'll do a semi-regular macro/markets writeup
Would be great, too few quality threads here these days.

Since I am europoor cash heavy in EUR and want to avoid having my cash becoming worthless in the near future, do you think going USD/JPY/gold would be a decent 'safe' way to ride through whatever shitstorm is coming?

>>15141023
Imagine this anon holding your money on /biz/ looking for ins from another anon jfc

>>15141063
where do you get your data?

>>15141092
That’s the future, dummy. Image boards are the only place on the planet where people share high quality research without expectation of reward or even just not being called a faggotnigger

>>15141092
Lel please faggot I literally tried to make a thread on bonds the other day and had like 20 comments with people amazed it was possible to make more then 2% of a bond. I think I'm doing well thanks.

>>15140432
keep on leeching disgusting kike. you produce nothing but a fee lmao

>>15140973
this

>>15141023
you do way more than OP who is basically larping anyway

you suffer from impostor syndrome

ask your boss for more money if it's as tight nit and 'family' as you say

if they are not willing to budge, smile and continue to work there until you find a job that pays you double

if you actually manage 9 figures AUM you'd have no problem finding a job within a week

lol

you brainlets really need to come to the west coast. just swing your dick around it's all for the taking

https://breakoutlist.com/

>>15139591
>The only thing you're good at consistently producing is net operating losses because somehow your friends on the east coast can still peddle your garbage companies to bagholders.

Savage anon

>>15141012
>>15140856
>>15141028
Is monero fucked with the rest of the altcoins

>>15141060
US pension problem is much greater, higher embedded growth expectations and less FI exposure compared to Europe.

Pensions overexposed to equities when median US age is 65 this year - if theres a downturn, the marginal buyers are retiring, bad mix.

Pensions overexposed to BB-rated corporate debt that they may have to dump if downgraded.


>>15141061
same

>>15141083

>REITs

depends on the REIT. I'm not an equities guy but I played a few small cap reits this year for some good gains.

REITs (esp. single family homes) have outperformed historically despite GFC. Impressive.

Look for special situation plays. I don't like growth REIT plays.

>Current RE market

Wompy. Interest rates on mortgages down but we haven't seen a resurgence in home buying. Inventories growing.

Demographic issue may be in play - retirements picking up (inflection point was this year). Lots of boomers want to cash out their equity.

Median boomer has about 50K in housing and 53k in equities. They think they'll retire on that.

>>15141092
Literally 90% of the buyside is like this. Not a surprise.

>>15141087
I'm not certain about JPY prospects + it continuing to be a safe haven. Their banks are in trouble and it may be major.

USD bull market was very unexpected by a lot of market players. Dollar denominated debt + FX vol + rate differential will probably sustain USD value. Non-zero but very small (single digit %) chance that Trump uses emergency powers to devalue USD.


May not be the best time to get in gold after it breached resistance last month but I bet it has a ways to go.

>>15141092
Some footfag on /b/ in 2009 told me to buy BTC and I told him to die in a fire. I wish I was able to see past his fetish but I was too close minded. Goddammit.

Based OP
Come chat someday, was good.

>>15141188
Privacy-centric crypto will exist in a persistent niche. I don't know if Monero is the winner in this space (may be a coin that is not yet on the market). The niche will trend toward consolidation.

I also don't think this niche will be huge. Privacy won't trigger widespread adoption.

>>15140010
I can't tell if you're a pajeet fudding or the biggest spastic on the board.

>>15141196
Monero is my biggest holding but the fud saying govs will ban off ramps makes too much sense

>>15141196
Shouldn’t the us pension problem be more or less solved if Europe shits the bed first? Conservatively, Europe has fifteen trillion dollars worth of assets that will be chomping at the bit to get the fuck out of Dodge. And that’ll splash everywhere for sure but there’s no way the lions share of it doesn’t hit US shores given how porous the capital borders are and how relatively safe US assets would be.

>>15141279
This scenario would be like this, very simplified b.c. im about to go afk for a bit:

1. Europe in financial crisis - global slowdown
2a. US equities dump, corporate debt spreads explode
2b. Simultaneously, boomers withdrawing from pensions that are underfunded by many trillions.
3. Boomers selling pension assets into a bear market.
4. Pensions insolvent in US.

>>15141255
Alright that's pretty logical, most people dont give a fuck about privacy seeing how they just give it away. I'll still hold some but I guess it really is btc or nothing

>>15141028
good name

>>15141060
lmao, now post the chart for whites in america, it looks like a mushroom. we're beyond fucked demographically unless you think goblins and niggers are good replacements

>>15141279
It's already happening. Smart money here knows the Euro is fucked unless we get fiscal policy over the entire zone and severe austerity + structural reform in the southern bloc.

Politically this is highly unlikely (especially with Brexit), since the southern bloc now has new majorities in the commission and in the senate and because the political party that introduces these reforms will be voted out or lynched in less than 6 months.

So what's going to happen:
>negative rates for 10+ years
>more QE
>massive redistribution of wealth from fiscally conservative states to southern retards
>euro devaluing even more

You don't want to hold Euro debt in the next 10-15 years.

>>15141424
White demographics are heavily stratified by religiosity, so really it’s just retard lefties who are offing themselves in the long run. Conservative white households range from 2.0 to like 2.6, which is more than sufficient.

heard of moon3d? 10x or 100x your crypto. ez money.

>>15139591
Look at the 10 most valued companies. What do you see?
I agree blitzscaling is a concept alien to you wallstreet cucks similar to how you couldn’t value SaaS businesses 8 years ago.
Let’s face it - we will never get along and our values are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The bitter truth is that finance needs innovation and vice versa. Wallstreet cucks need Silicon Valley and vice versa. We are too deep in this bed.

Since you like reading OP: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital - Carlota Perez. Thank me later.

>>15141225
I saw posts on /b/ for bitcoin around 2010, they were trading video game items with them, so i dismissed it as gaming shit.. I really wonder what those people trading like 10 bitcoins for a tf2 item think of this

>>15140376
>He does the typical Elon Musk-tier move whenever he is asked a question about something that may be a positive for his co. - he doesn't flat out deny, says he can't talk about it.
Yes. That's a standard rhetorical tactic though, if you are in talks with a company, even if maybe they aren't going *amazing*, why qualify it any more than you have to?
I can't think of a single instance where he has been proven wrong in public.
Where as, I mean, compare the reliability record of almost any other crypto CEO....

>>15140376
> that may be a positive for his co.
What is this convoluted phrasing?

I am not sure about which question you are referring to but that sounds like someone asking about a missing feature, and getting the "our developing efforts aren't focused on this at the moment" big tech usually gives since they don't have infinite resources.

Classic rhetoric as this anon above me said.

>>15141532
imagine reading a spic

>>15141322
Are you aware of the harsh reality that Craig Wright has access to the tulip trust and will bury BTC into the ground in favor of BitCoin [BSV]

Thoughts?

Nice to know people like OP still have no clue what a network like Chainlink does.

I bet OP requires tons of algos, quants and indicators too.

Meanwhile, im out here manually calling any swing in any timeframe in any asset class, TO THE FUCKING PIP.

Its unbelievable how much money is wasted on analysts line OP.

>>15140112
>I'm a little too harsh on valley, they do build incredible companies for your short book.

fucking kek'd

>>15141532
Yeah, my criticism is more out of the joy-of-dunking on SV bros.

However, you have the discount the survivorship bias into your view. For as many great blitzscale growth stories you can come up with, you'll find ten more failed growth stories.


VC money is way, way, way too easy. I interviewed at a VC fund a while back (before my last gig). They kept telling me - this is a sales role, every company we want to invest in has 30 investors chasing them, we don't 'find' company that there is no interest in.

That screams 'wow, frothy bubble'. Along with known frauds with 50 billion dollar valuations + an all time high amount of IPOs with negative earnings.

Remember, the Wall Street bros are the ones that create the valuation models. Crazy tech valuations are a tremendous technical innovation.

I was more of a 'tech bro' growing up than a 'finance bro' so I've always had my eye on tech companies.

>>15141964

what does wall street etc think of tether? they're basically crypto's central bank and a centralised point of failure for the market

>>15141964
curious as to what you think which crypto besides btc/etc could stand the test of time.

>>15142289
this. it's a massive risk

>>15137670
tell me why you all have faith in a public ledger as oppose to monero, something more digitally analogous to cash?
isn't it a huge disadvantage seeing all the "whale alerts" etc?
>pic related

The big Question remaining; when do we pull out of chainlink?

>>15142711

future regulations

I have no need to keep my money private. I make money, I pay my taxes.

>>15137612
>>15137670
what are the biggest hurdles facing the blockchain/ smartcontract space currently?

for example, if I wanted to start a business and program smartcontracts for clients, what obstacles stand in my way?

I'm assuming you're aware of chainlink - is it really just a matter of a more developed oracle network? I feel like once proper data sensors are beginning to be implemented the smartcontract revolution will take off, or are there other factors i'm missing?

>>15142962
learn from the mistakes others made in 2017 that bagheld shitcoins through ATH's to zero and designate a portion of your holdings to sell on the way up from $10 or so and keep a portion for staking and some for selling in the next bullrun. we all know that if it does what it intends to do then it will go $1000 at the end of *a year*, just be sensible about it and make sure you take some profit to live on to see that day.

>>15142711


If you make it big in Monero You also can't reinvest into other assests (1. to make more money, 2.to buy a home, 3. to evade taxes by reinvesting). government is always gonna want to know where the money comes from.

Monero is worthless if you are moving millions. But its great if your moving 10s of thousands and want to keep it secret. Guess which kind of investor i am?

If Monero adds functionality that benefit business to staying private via smart contracts or something like that I will reevaluate.

>>15143211
I still maintain

That when it comes to big money the top 20 projects aren't worth a thing other then BTC ETH and LINK.

If Monero dissappeared or was compromised in someway the crypto space wouldn't even blink. nothing would change.

If BTC, ETH or LINK dissappeard. the smartcontract economy would effectively be put on hold for another 5 years. if BTC was compromised iin some way then 10 years.

>>15137612
Question for OP

Do you see a need for a wall street style fully regulated crypto exchange for an easier transition to crypto?

Something much like the online brokerages of today.

Crypto screener, portfolio management, ACH banking integration, FDIC insured etc... ?

>>15139106
i don't think you know enough about chainlink - it IS the best tech in the space. nothing short of the entire team dying will kill its momentum

OP is the biggest faggot I've ever seen on these boards. Ignore what the retard says. Wallstreet rats missed btc because they're useless archaic reactionaries. Buy LINK, smart contracts are going to make this idiots job redundant.

>>15138035
Bitcoin SV will overtake BTC

>>15143337
also good thread, thanks for the detailed responses. just when i thought this board had gone to complete shit

>>15143377
regardless, it's nice knowing what's going on in wallstreet fags heads. they'll be aware of LINK eventually, we still have time to accumulate

>>15143337
anon chainlink is not patented nor trademark. Facebook making a libra is enough to throw the entire market into disarray.

It could be the best tech in the universe, but its not a multi billion dollar company. Heck they haven't even staff the 14 people needed. If google wanted to out beat them it wouldn't even be a fair competition.

>>15143516
>chainlink has years of dev work advantage before smart contracts become viable
We are here
>Chainlink makes supply chain more profitable for a couple of ahead of the curve businesses
>more and more businesses see this and get on the train quick while chainlink is still affordable
This is what youre worried about below--
> The tech giga Giants catch on and begin developing smartcontract/oracle solutions of thier own
> Chainlink finally has competitors

We will already be rich by then

>>15143516
>he doesn't know

To summarize
>go long BTC
>short chainlink, it's going to be worth $1000 minus $1001 EOY as its an exit scam that will be replaced by the newest and greatest competitor down the road

>>15143516

Google integrated Chainlink into its Bigquery already.

Oracle is doing the same.

There is a reason Google did not come out with its own oracle system. Because the competing cloud service/data providers such as Oracle, Amazon, Alibaba, SAF etc. wouldn't use it. They are competitors.

The solution to the oracle problem has always needed to be a stand along network separate from any monopolistic entity. It is an aggregater of data and arbitrator of truth. For this reason any attempt by Google to be the "standard" that of which Chainlink is would be a failure.

Do you even have the technical understanding and vision in this space as a finance guy? There are many other legit projects.

>>15143898
Pretty good rundown on the situation. We will all fucking make it.

>>15141964
OP sounds like a macro strategy bro with a good head on his shoulders.

Capital is already glowing into the US from the rest of the world... Dollar will continue to rise creating a virtuous cycle for capital flows into the US from an international perspective. Initially money will be concentrated in govt bonds causing US rates to go negative, but then will be scared into US stocks by the first international sovereign bond defaults. Did I mention the govt bond market is ~10x the size of stocks? Yeah, massive US stock market pump from there as the rest of the world crumbles. System will reset after that. Fun times.

OP what about Tezos? I see it was just added to Coinbase Pro and Etoro. They have about 1 billion in assets. I would think they have the staying power and funds to adapt and likely overtake Eth in the future. Do you have any thoughts on XTZ and this pile of assets they are sitting on. From my understanding up until now they have not been able to touch these funds with the legal issues, but now that is pretty much resolved, they have tons of funds to deploy to build this blockchain out. Literally sitting on a massive warchest to deploy to do it. Any thoughts? Thanks.

>>15143516
>nor trad
Also, Libra needs an oracle network like Chainlink for it to be decentralized.

Buy BTC and XMR only

>>15137851
>institutional clients
larp detected
t.Wendy's chef cumming on your burgers

>>15137670
Libra is based on a basket of fiat currencies. If those fiats start failing, what happens to Libra?

>>15137612
How would a pleb take advantage of the currency arbitrage opportunity you're talking about? I'm not very current on my forex knowledge.

>>15140042
this. OP lives in a bubble. opinion disregarded.

>>15137612
OP, you need to make friends with people in Silicon Valley if you want to make it.

>>15144543
Silicon valley is more done than the banker lobby.
All they will serve for is for post 2024 meat production, with them being the meat. Imagine some 32 year old hipster that never walked a yard in his life and has only been fed on soya beans and avocados

>>15144572
> he thinks memes are real life

>>15144632
If you were ever in contact with those hispter techies from commiefornia you would know it isn't just a meme. In bet their eye filet with a nice pepper sauce would taste great

>>15137612
OP if you are still here can you make a quick guide on where to start with learning TA from scratch, like books/resources that are redpilled and helped you the most?

>>15144791
It's funny how people only suddenly realize the Reality of technical trading when they hear it from someone they view as an authority, as opposed to investigating what Reality shows, for themselves.

I'm also fed up with this "it's not enough" bullshit. That's probably some kind of logical fallacy. IT'S EITHER USEFUL OR IT ISN'T, there is NO in between.

my god the amount of kikes in this thread.

SHOO SHOO fucking cockroaches

>>15137842
Maybe maybe not. Surveys show young people don't really give a shit about crypto currently. As a while it has a long way to go before it can capture a generation

>>15145078
And that's not a false dilemma, because the dilemma isn't false. Accepting the usefulness of technical analysis means that you have to make assumptions about market movements, chiefly that they aren't always random and that markets trend (on a given time frame). Many people don't agree with those observable realities, and so it's a dilemma.

Judging by this thread Wall Street is full of boomers who understand economics and finance but doesn't understand cutting-edge tech at all, meanwhile Silicon Valley understands technology but mostly has a pretty poor understanding of finance and economics

>>15145234
based

>>15145575
yeah that's the vibe I got. huge cultural differences between NY and SF. LA/ Cali culture also bleeds down to SF. anyways whatever buy chainlink $1000 EOY

>>15145575
>>15145575
Silicon Valley founder here. That isn’t exactly true. It’s more around our core areas of focus. OP and I have been going back and forth on this but we do create new models of finance and value which wallstreet only understands after 5-7 years (always been like this).

Good examples: Engagement metrics (social media, Web 2.0), Software as a service model (SaaS), today’s blitzscaling model for unicorns ($bn growth startups). Each time Wall Street whines about valuation only to bow down and put the same companies on their top 10 most valued list in the world. Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple were all on their shit list once.

How does a WS desk analyst not understand the concept of supply shock?

Yes, macro forces can trigger institutional sell-offs, but before claims can be made you have to ask:

A) what is the total share that institutional futures/margin traders have in the market?

Once a correction occurs in the market on par with OPs suggestion ($500 USD BTC), that is precisely the situation in which the supply shock has effects. Yes, the 2017 jump was exacerbated by margin and futures speculation. But it still looks like BTC is on par with a 20 or 10x rose in next 3 years, followed by a 5 or 10x 7 years following

You had two years

>>15137670
Waddup meltem

bump

>>15147159
any comments on retail traders connecting through vpn's to margin exchanges like bitmex or bybit? is it illegal? it breaks terms of servicec of those ((exchanges)) but i think the legal issue is on their end for allowing us traders on to begin with.
How are small independent traders supposed to make millions trading bitcoin when the tax will kill you on gdax and trading spot can only get you so far. I can trade 100x on bybit and make, well I have been, and make a couple thousand a day.

>>15137842
I wonder what a similar chart of beenie baby enthusiasts would have looked like peak frenzy.

Bump

>>15137612
>completely determined by macrofactors
bruh I am whale and I short things for fun when I fucking want, I could short btc by 10% each day for a month

>>15147992
He means crypto as an asset class, not any individual alt coin.

>>15137612
This is why low-cap shitcoins will always be the way to make it. Buy Zuckbucks.

>>15140010
>You can write wrong data on the blockchain then what... you have wrong data on a blockchain. total useless scam.
You idiot. Your exact concern is why Chainlink is being built.

>>15137612
Ah.. for once OP wasn't a faggot.
Great thread m8. You on twatter?

Regarding arb opportunities with currencies swap, interesting. You are doing that?

Overall the derivitization of the BTC market diminishes pumpability but will likely make numbah goup in the beginning (drawing a parallelism with gold futures introduction)

>>15144208

eos have 1 billion dollars and no-one wants to build on it.

>>15137612
is that why my charts works?

>>15137851
>1Oak

how is it living in 2012?

>>15138490
>I'm not even that experienced. I'm just obsessed with the financial markets
How did you learn?

I feel like I just get a little bit of familiarity with what the fed is, etc. from being a degenerate shitcoiner but I wish I had a more comprehensive set of sources on these topics.

>>15138746
>t is very possible but you need to network.
>The first time I visited a Wall Street trading desk at a major bank, I was 18 years old.
Any advice for this? I don't really need a job, I already work as an engineer at a fang company, but I am curious.

I used to know a guy wjk said he started partying with some "finance bros" he met through one of his hobbies but it seemed like he started doing drugs with them which I'm not into.

>>15138906
>Know the math. if you cant calculate the NPV of a bond in your head, you should read a book.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.amazon.com/Bond-Math-Theory-Formulas-Finance/dp/1576603067&ved=2ahUKEwjli6rp1fDjAhVEj1kKHUqpDb8QFjAJegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0CGkrap68y0IFOl-uYRgJt

Is that a good book?

What do you think of taleb?

What do you think of mark spitznagel?

>>15139171
>This is the most important takeaway from what I'm saying. I am much less laying out a thesis and much more laying out the consensus view by those with money.
There is a lot of money to be made in betting against the consensus - but only if you're correct. Sounds like if we're right about link, we're gonna be fucking rich.

If we're wrong, we're fucked.

But if we want crypto exposure instead of a lottery ticket, then btc is a better buy than link. Just because it already has credibility among those with money but not so much that everyone believes in it yet. I.e., it has much less risk than link but still much more upside potential than virtually any crypto investment.

Maybe I will stop being 100% link and get a little bit of btc. Thanks, op.

>>15144390
Kek!
There are quite a few idiots on this board, but you my sweet and cherubic anon, take the cake.
If all the fiats fall against a weighted basket of all the fiats - then the price will remain the same. You cretin.

>>15137612
Why is the currency performance matrix not symmetric?

>>15137913
>General consensus on the street is cryptos will consolidate to BTC and corporate-backed tethered products like Libra.
BAHAHAAHAHAHA
>Thinks BTC Segwit will not get RKD by BitCoin and Satoshi's parents and trademarks
>Thinks government's will actually let monster corps print their own ponzi POS token currencies
Wow

>>15137612

Will you shed some light on this image or if you don't have direct insight on it, gold and silver in general? I've read what you've stated about gold so far, but can you elaborate more on your stance (or on the stances of the PMs)

thanks