/biz/ - Business & Finance

Chainlink is my biggest holding

Dont you have a 2/3 probability of getting gold on your next draw from the same box, given you've pulled one gold already?

Do I have to put the first ball back into the box?

>>15088168
half

>>15088168
I feel like im missing something here but my answer is 50/50.

>>15088232
no
>>15088237
>>15088240
holdings?

>>15088237
I agree

>>15088192
It's 1/2, because you either pulled it from the box with two golds with a 100 chance, or you pulled it from the box with one gold and one silver with a 0% chance.
The third box is irrelevant.

Chainlink

2/3

In NOIA from the beginning. See you in 5 years pajeets. Check the chart since the Cisco partnership......

>>15088237
>>15088240
>>15088251
Lol

>>15088248
Then it's 50%
hodling BTC

>>15088248
chainlink

>>15088248
wait nevermind i change my answer to 1/3

and i am all in on BSV

>>15088168
50/50 you can rule out the double silver box as soon as you pull a gold. So your hand is either in double gold or the split one

BTC

2/5 probability

>>15088168
2/3 largest holdings right now are AAL and silver

>>15088168
I know the trippy BS people try to say to explain how it's not half but it honestly is half, giant paragraphs to explain how yellow is technically green don't matter in practical life.

>>15088168
33%

You have 3 boxes.
What are the odds of picking the box with 2 gold balls? 33%

>>15088251
>>15088292
>>15088303
holdings?

>>15088303
Jesus the cope. Imagine believing statistics doesn't matter in real life.

>>15088318
Holdings sir?

>>15088303
>cant into probability

>>15088168
2/3

1. The initial chance of picking Gold is: 3 Gold/6 Balls Total, 50%.

2. After picking a Gold ball, you can remove the 2 Silver Balls in one box from consideration. This reduces Total Balls to 4.

3. Of these 4 remaining Balls, one has been found to be Gold. This reduces Total Balls to 3 AND reduces the amount of Gold Balls to 2.

Therefore, the likelihood of picking another Gold Ball is 2 Gold/3 Balls Total, or 2/3.

>>15088330
Highest holdings are XRP, Link, BSV

>>15088168
2/3

>>15088303
yeah i just checked the answer and it doesnt make sense

math will never have any bearing on real life like that. if you think about it numbers dont even exist.

>>15088168
Its 50%

BRAP

>>15088168
100% in Chainlink here. I knew the answer was 50% in under 5 seconds. Surely these gentlemen are trolling.

>>15088358
cope

66% chance next ball is golden
Lit

>>15088353
You can just admit you are a brainlet fren. Nobody is gonna judge you.

2/3, eth

You cant see inside the boxes
>>15088318
this guy is right

Eliminate the silver box , obviously 2 of the 3 is the box the one gold came from, its down to 2 boxes, it is a 50% chance at that point you pull the next one out of the SAME box.

>>15088318
but you are guaranteed to get either the first or second box, so the third is irrelevant. The question is flawed because its impossible to guarantee something if you are picking at random.

The point of the thread is to also post your biggest holding along with your answer you niggers.

>>15088456
Id rather shitpost

It's 50% fucking brainlets kek
Link $1000 EOY check em

Mostly ETH
Oh, and Pi Network (Soon to become the majority of my equity once it goes public)

>>15088533
you are the first to post your holdings but not the answer lol

>>15088552
Oh sorry,
>pic related

>>15088533
inaccurate representation of the probability space. drawing a picture may help but you should really draw all the possibilities before you start eliminating.

>>15088559
so your answer is 50%?

>>15088568
Yeah

>>15088565
I know, the real answer isn't 50% to those who truly know what's up.

>>15088168
Bertrand's box paradox is boring and you aren't smart.

NEXT

LINK
3/5

I'm strong enough to just take all the boxes.

My biggest bag is Ethereum.

>>15088168
2/3, LINK
This is a meme. I believe that half of the people who still say 1/2 are trolls that want to feed brainlets.

It’s impossible to pick a gold ball from the one with 2 silver, so you eliminate that one in the calculation. So if you have removed 1 gold ball you are either working in the 2 gold ball container or the 1 silver and 1 gold container. With 1 gold ball removed in the one gold one silver, there can only be one silver left , and in the 2 gold ball container there is only 1 gold ball left. So therefore it’s 1/2.

>>15088168
2/3

The problem is equivalent to asking “what is the probability you have chosen box #1?”

think of it this way, you are effectively sampling evenly from the space of six balls.

conditioning on having taken a gold ball first, 2/3s of the time you would have done this by selecting the two-gold box.

the answer is irrefutably 2/3.

LINK + XTZ gigachad master race.

>>15088830
You are twice as likely to pick the box with two golds in it when you pick a gold.

>>15088387
To me, 25% actually makes the most "sense". 3/6 * 1/2. As soon as it asks you to choose another ball from the same box, the outcome is either Gold or Silver.

I guess the issue with that thinking though is it's not just 1/2 initially. You can choose from 3 boxes, each containing 2 Balls, you're not limited to choosing from a single box which would reduce the Total Balls to choose from to 2.

Because of that, you need to be able to account for not choosing from a box which contains only Silver Balls.

>>15088850
But pulling out a gold ball proves that you didn't get a silver box. The odds are now 50/50. The silver box is dead and gone from probability.

>>15088168
Is this a testical joke?

>>15088869
What?? How are you more likely to pick a gold than a silver? It’s 50/50 mongroid

>>15088168
Given that you have chosen a golden ball on your first go, it is more likely that you have box 1. 2/3 of the times it will be box 1.

That's means you have a 2/3 chance of your next ball being golden, and 1/3 chance of it being silver.

50% with full certainty

All in Elastos

>>15088168
2/3

>>15088863
Read the question

>>15088387
Google the problem retard

>>15088240
>>15088251
>>15088271
>>15088292
>>15088303
>>15088318
>>15088363
>>15088433
>>15088532
>>15088955
brainlets

>>15088938
This is the best layman's explanation that anyone can hear, it's up to them to understand it.
All these brainlets just got dabbed on by a reddit spacer.

>>15088894
This is correct. 50/50 irrefutably

>>15088168
50% I think
it's either box 1 or two that means either the other ball is 100% dud or 100% gold

It’s 50/50. Anyone who says otherwise is retarded. I have googled the problem. If you simulated this problem a million times and only counted when you drew a gold ball on the first grab you would end up with 50%

>>15089095
Show us your code.

>>15088168
I thought it was 50% too until I read the solution and then it made sense. Anyone calling people brainlets for answering 50% are even bigger brainlets because they weren't able to explain why it's not.

So, the first ball is gold. That means there's only 2 boxes it could be. GG or GS. The fact that it's two boxes doesn't actually matter and this is why so many people think it's 50%. There ISN'T 4 balls left, there's 3. The 3 balls are GGS. That's why your chance of picking another gold is 2/3 or 66% and not 50%.

So yeah, I hope that clears up some confusion. I originally thought it was 50% too.

>>15089095
Please, do run the code. Just as with the Monty hall problem, you will see that statistics prevails over your pebble brain logic.

Imagine it this way. You pick one of the three boxes, you draw a gold ball, what box is it most likely that you have drawn from?

>>15089009
Dab

>>15089193
there's 3 unchosen balls, but the next ball has to be either a gold or a silver (2)

>>15089216
>You pick one of the three boxes, you draw a gold ball, what box is it most likely that you have drawn from?

This is a brainlet explanation and doesn't even make sense. You aren't more likely to have chosen GG because you picked one gold. Whether you have GG or GS is 50% if the first ball is gold.

>>15089223
Combine the 2 boxes with at least 1 gold ball.
GGGS. Remove 1 gold. GGS. How is that 2? It's not. It's 3.

>>15088168
66%
LINK

Lol these threads always deliver. Would expect biz of all the boards would have a basic grasp of stats. Anyone who didn't answer 2/3, you have shamed us. Remediate.

BTC

>>15088168
Here is the solution.

This probability is
2/3
. Let's do an informal computation. It will be imprecise, but could be made precise by using the notion of conditional probability.

Imagine repeating the experiment 3000
times. Then each box will be picked roughly 1000 times. We will get a gold coin about 1500 times. Out of these 1500 times that we get a gold, it will have come from the two-gold box 1000 times.

So if we restrict attention to the 1500 times that we get a gold, about 1000
of these times it will come from the two-gold box. So given that we got a gold coin, the probability the other coin in the same box is gold should be around 1000/1500
You come in with a problem you copy and pasted of google and pretend to be smart but can’t explain the solution
.

>>15089321
If anyone wants the solution written by someone who isn't a pseud, it's here: >>15089193

A person who truly understands something can explain it simply, as I have. The dumbest person is the one who can't explain it at all, which is most of this thread and most of /biz/.

Chainlink is a scam, by the way.

>>15089340
You got the solution wrong dipshit

>>15089358
>literally just replied to say "ur wrong"

Thank you for proving how dumb you are.

>>15088168
Some made retarded people here
3 boxes. You draw a gold bal, that eliminates the SS box (#3) you picked from either the GG or GS box. Since you took a gold ball, in those boxes remain either a G ball (#1) or S ball (#2)
Thus 50-50 thus 50%
If you dont get this highschoolmath you are beyond hope and you should seriously question yourself <80 iq nigger

>>15089365
Your solution assumes you are drawing from either box. You are drawing again from the same box. Now fuck off.

>>15089253
No, your explanation is terrible. It's not a proper solution.

Let me break it down like this for you. You choose a box randomly, 1/3 it is box 1, 1/3 of the time it is box 2, 1/3 of the time it's box 3.

That means 1/3 you are guaranteed to have no chance of having drawn a gold ball (box 3). 1/3 of the time you are guaranteed to have drawn a gold ball (box 1). 1/3 of the time you have a 50/50 chance of drawing a gold ball (box 2).

2/6 of the time you will draw a gold ball from box 1.
1/6 of the time you will draw a gold ball from box 2.
1/6 of the time you will draw a silver ball from box 2.
2/6 of the time you will draw a silver ball from box 3.

So there are 6 possible outcomes, and 3 result in a gold ball. Of those 3, 2 occur when you select box 1. That means given that a gold ball has been drawn, you have a 2/3 chance of having selected box 1.

>>15088353
PICKS FROM THE SAME BOX YOU ABSOLUTE MONG
FUCKING READ

>>15089009
Wtf another mad retard

>>15089340
You're misquoting Feynman, a person who truly understands can explain it simply to an audience of undergraduate students. When a reporter asked Feynman what he got his Nobel prize for he responded that if he could explain it to normal people he wouldn't have gotten the prize.

>>15089193
>The fact that it's two boxes doesn't actually matter and this is why so many people think it's 50%.
im a brainlet so why does the box not matter
The box in front of you, that you have ruled out not being the SS box, does not contain 3 balls. It contains 1 ball. That one single ball is either G or S.

>>15089397
>You choose a box randomly, 1/3 it is box 1, 1/3 of the time it is box 2, 1/3 of the time it's box 3.

I stopped reading here because you're already wrong. Theres a 0% chance of it being both silver because we KNOW that the first ball is gold.

>>15089390
>You are drawing again from the same box.
Yes. We know it is the same box but we don't know whether our box is GG or GS meaning we could be drawing from either.

This is my last post in the thread because the people here are just too stupid to even reply to. Which is why I do very little conversing on /biz/ and spend most of my time scrolling past or filtering threads.

>>15088168
100% bitch

>>15089420
It’s 2/3 bitch. What’s your major holding so I can short it

>>15088168
2/3
Took me 10 seconds to get it and doublecheck.

>>15089420
Fuck off absolute retard.
I try one more time: either box GG OR GS. Drawn G so either an G or S remain
YOU DRAW FROM THE SAME BOX YOU HIGHSCHOOL FAILURE.
You either draw the second gold of the GG box or the silver one from the GS box
59% mongoloid

>>15089464
>calls other people highschool failures

>>15088168
1/3. The only box that can fulfill that request is the box with 2 gold balls. The chance of you picking that box is 1/3.

>>15089513
Also, Sent and Ren.

>>15089497
You already drew the first golds you retard. This only makes sense if you put the gold ball back in there after drawing the first time

>>15089523
Whoops. Reread question. The answer is 1/2 .

>>15089508
If you cant do this, you botched highschool, fact
These are the people im trading against kek

>>15089417
You started with a gold ball. There are three gold balls. Therefore there is a 2/3 chance you picked from GG box, 1/3 chance you picked from GS.

Probability is my favorite branch od mathematics.

>>15089525
Nigger what. How do I help these people?

>>15089537
What's your biggest holding?

>>15089538
gotcha. thanks anon.

>>15089497
This pic is the key.

>>15089540
Nigger off yourself
>cant read the question in op
>cant read my shit
Fuck you rakesh

>>15089549
Shit it could be pi network/brapper and i’d still come ahead versus you, you brainlet

>>15088998
>guys this is the answer because google told me

nigger if google told you 1+1 was 3 you would believe it? google is not correct.

>>15089540
You can't, just dump on them it's easier.

>>15089566
Answer the question.

>>15089558
Thanks fellow maths anon. Studying to be an actuary, so I'm going to be doing a good bit of stats in future.

>>15089397
This is the best explanation. I used to think it was 50/50 too btw.

>>15088168
Pic for the brainlets.
>probability that next ball from same box is gold
Nothing about fucking probabilies that you got the GG box.
Reading is hard

>>15089538
>being this retarded in your favorite branch of math kek

>>15089628
>one golden ball magically disapears
Lol

>>15089584
Have sex bitchboy, not disclosing anything about my positions retard.

You draw a ball 3000 times.
Each box you draw from 1000 times.
We only care about the number times you get a gold first draw.
That’s 1000 times plus have of the box two draws. 500.
Of those 1500 draws, 1000 were from box 1. The probability of drawing a gold is 1000:1500. This is the only right answer

>>15089665
>you take a ball from that box
>take
>take
>take
Read raheel.

>>15089668
Scared?

>>15089686
>he doubles down on being an idiot
Kekimus maximus x 1000

>>15089686
>>15089707
You eliminated both gold balls from the equation retard, not only one. That's why I called you a retard.

>>15089628
Nice troll pic - keep the thread going.

So - rhetorical because I know you are trolling - what would the probability be if the boxes were GS, GS, SS? Or GGGG, GS, SS?

>>15089693
Scared of your abysmal mathskills ye

>10 gold balls in box #1 rather than just two
>You manage to draw a gold ball on your first selection
>Box with two silvers is removed from calculation

Are the odds still 50/50 that you picked from the box with a gold and a silver just because there are only two boxes left? No, because if you managed to draw a gold ball in the first place, there's obviously a much higher chance you picked it from the box with 10 gold balls, rather than the box with 1 gold and 1 silver.

Now apply the same logic to the box with two golds and you will understand why there's a higher chance that you picked from the box with 2 golds to begin with.

10000%

>>15089740
It's afraid.

>>15089340
Except he was right and you were wrong.