/biz/ - Business & Finance

there will be no financial crisis because they are lowering rates every week now

>>15001898
They are lowering rates because they project a financial crisis coming. It's used to soften the blow.

>>15001956
I agree with you but everyone is calling a financial crisis since 2016 so I don't believe it anymore

>>15001967
That's right. It's hard to predict the top, but keep in mind the bond market is 2x the size of the stock market, thus is a better indicator.

>>15001967
Also fed indicators are generally the most accurate surprisingly since they model recession not just local tops.

>>15002039
>goy money

>>15002039
Where's this graph from and how are these confidences determined?

>>15002039
How does a crisis start?
A single report snowballs into many reports than stuff starts to crash?
It seems like employment inflation growth and other indicators are all cooked
I hear maybe next year maybe in the next 5, any idea on how we will know before the rest of the normies?

Also any chance there is no crash?

Hedge with BRAP

Youre retarded
Keep shorting the markets and losing money please

>>15002193
Kys loser

>>15001882
The next financial crisis will be set off by student debt. In fact, it's already happening.

>>15001882
I posted this in /smg/ yesterday but this is basically my strat. Another anon made a good point about not just getting in or out of the market in a big jump but I'm goncerned i won't be able to switch my 401k over to bonds and sell my mutual funds in time so as to not take a big hit. I'll keep like 10% of my portfolio on some stocks i think will do ok in the coming months but I've pulled way back. It's not exciting but it helps me sleep at night.

>>15001956
I don't think it'll soften the blow, personally. They should be raising rates to slow down the party before the cops (reality) show up and shut everything down hard. If the market shits the bed at 5% interest rate, you have 5% worth of interest rate to stimulate the economy. If the market shits the bed at 2.5% interest rate, you're fucked.
We still had booms and crashes at higher interest rates in the past. The economy needs the tough love now or we're not going to make it

>>15002232
What is making you say that student debt is the cause?

>>15002110
2000: Junk Dotcom Companies
2008: Junk Mortgages
2019: Junk Corporate Bonds

If you want to know more about the coming financial crisis, look around google for high-yield bonds (AKA junk bonds), which give money to corporations that have low credit ratings.

It literally rhymes with 2008.

>>15001882
is it time to buy more silver while it isn't $100/oz?

>>15002232
but how do we profit from this

I can feel this shit in my bones. The calm before the storm.

The FED is signalling that they're willing to cut the interest rate no matter what (even to negatives) to save these companies. Yes, I grant that this is kinda retarded move because it may will cause inflation. Note that inflation is a result of INCREASE in price. I think that a the market won't tank until people start losing faith in USD.

>>15002264
how r corporate junk bonds being shipped out as? whom'st've most leveraged on junk bonds? for egxample where were these junk bonds mainly given at? silicon valey?

>>15002273
Yes

>>15002232
Student debt is tiny. $1.5 trillion. Corporate debt is $15 trillion. Student debt could play part of this crisis, but it's really really not a major concern right now. Corporations can die. Students never dies unless people do (50+ years from now).

>>15002273
Silver isn't bad, but keep in mind stock market equities always outperform gold and silver. Even during the Weimar Republic where there was hyperinflation! Stocks > gold no matter what. Wait for a crash and buy.

>>15002264
Thx for info

>>15002351
Also, don't buy gold. The true value of gold is pretty high right now. I also think silver is a little high. Oil is my favorite commodity since a war with Iran has a decent probability.

Gold and silver prices also DROPPED during the 2008 crash. They rose a lot. You could see that happen again. A good deal on gold is $700-900. Silver isn't too bad, but still a bit too rich.

>>15002381
because people sell their metals when they need money during crisis

thank you for this thread, this is the reason why I browse /biz/ not LINK, BRAP and SENT

>>15002306
Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9_bWbrYPKg

Stand and local pensions buy junk bonds. This guy is a little too bullish IMO, but you can see why and how the stock market got inflated so much on junk bonds.

>>15002280
Be a vulture

>>15002405
just looking at his face I assume he does these videos to sell precious metals

next crisis is triggered by the collapse of the euro.
it might collapse economically or politically the question is what will be first

>>15002434
>this is white people's fault

>>15001882
>out right ignoring, 1986, 1996, 1998

this proves nothing brainlet. no recession

>>15002452
"buy my bags goyim"

>>15002436
He doesn't give a shit about your Ron Paul dollars. He's in the credit market/shadow banking.

>>15002441
Dude Italy LMAO

>>15002485
>baseless assumptions

fuck off normie

>>15002528
this is such a dumb and meaningless graph

>hurr durr the US has $22 TRILLION debt!! so scary

people don't even understand what debt means for a country

>>15002575
It's a big deal when your debt is deeply tied to another country.

Anyways, I've got to go. Just stay cash. Or buy LINK. I don't care.

>>15001882
collapse cant come fast enough for me. i think modern day american life is a joke.

>>15002405
deephole me further my nigga. i have not digested finance for 2 years

>>15002575
This. National debt is exactly like personal debt, if you personally have a machine that makes flawless counterfeit $100s in your basement.

>>15002745
its floated to the citizens via inflation devaluation.

>>15002628
And here they call me crazy for holding cash.

>>15002575
>>15002745

it is a problem actually. it's mitigated slightly by the ability to issue bonds but in the end, someone needs to purchase your bonds and you need to make sure you allocate enough of your revenue to pay off the coupon value. this also puts you in a precarious situation if you default.

>>15002801
there really isnt free information of these source, I have to register?

>>15002485

tired memes/10

So what is the most agreed upon date of the crash?

>>15003047
>>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

So whats gioing to be the best thing to buy up right after the crash?

Hypothetically, if link/btc/eth gain institutional adoption prior to a crash, would they do well? Particularly link and derivatives?

>>15003548
link is a bluechip and very likely will outperformed the market.

RATES ARE AT 0% BUYBACKS ARE STILL GREAT.

1000+ YEARS BULL MARKET.

WERE GOING TO COLONIZE SPACE

you could be put in a coma and your body conserved through cryogenics. youre sent toward a far enough star system with a cloning toolkit and nanobots.

meh. Isn't the first, won't be the last. I got 30 odd years of wage cuckery left. I will ride that shit out.

>>15003696
why are u on biz?

>>15003705
for threads like this. I enjoy reading about the pending collapse and the state of the world economies. I also like the fresh crypto maymays.

>>15002193
>"investing" in a shitcoin in a time when consumers have less money to spend and investors are more risk averse

>>15003375

If it's a deflationary crash and everyone packs into the US dollar, you buy US equities at decade lows.

During the last crash the S&P 500 went back to levels last seen in 1997 in March 2009.

If it's an inflationary recession, you buy equities associated with commodities and gold/silver.

>>15002351
until they don't because of crisis

>>15002729
I don't even care if I die in the flames. America is a joke of a once great country. it needs to burn to the ground for any hope of future prosperity

>>15002246
i am thinking of moving my money into a cash-money-market account now because of this idea. the potential upside that i will miss out on is much less than what I stand to lose in an recession.

of course there is the possibility that we keep pumping for another 2-3 years, maybe more

>>15002628
this is really telling. what's saying that we don't have another 15 years of this long growth? doesnt seem that people are moving to cash that much, as intensely, as they did last time.

as with bitcoin, perhaps this cycle of boom-bust is going to take a little bit longer than the last. might be something we see in 2022-2026

thoughts?

>>15004652

>America is a joke

Rofl, you've obviously never traveled literally anywhere outside the US.

It's embarrassing how far behind nearly every other country is on earth culturally and technologically.

Please, continue to say things that let everyone know you're 12 years old. Eat more soi faggot.

>>15002791
Cash is probably the worst place to be ‘all in’ at the moment.

The Fed wants inflation. It needs inflation to inflate away the debt. To stimulate inflation they lower interest rates and print more QE money. They’ve been trying to QT and raise rates the last couple of years but this had sent warning indicators off in the ‘everything bubble’ i.e. real estate, auto industry, stock markets. The only option they have left is more QE, and that trick has already been done.

QE does not filter down to the consumer economy, it merely adds to zombie company share buy backs and corporate junk bonds. These companies with high debt and low turnover only still exist because of today’s financial environment.

When that doesn’t work this time, the last chance saloon will be ‘helicopter’ money, UBI for everyone. That’s when hyperinflation starts and you really don’t want a stack of cash.

QE will provide one last hurrah. SP500 and the Dow will reach higher highs. Passive trackers and funds will see to that, but the smart money will be going elsewhere.

The treasury yields have all turned, a recession is inevitable. It’s time to ditch the passives and invest in out of favour defensive, dividend paying stocks, that will see the shitstorm out through the other side. Energy, telecommunications, military, transportation, agriculture.

Smart money was buying PM’s and miners in the lows of 2018 and this shit was on the cards for some time. GDX and GDXJ has spiked massively in the recent gold run. Time to start taking some profits, and keep liquidity available for when the market tanks.

>>15002628
WhAT KIND of graphic is that? does it trace the stocks ---> to $ movements?

>>15001882
It's been coming every month since 2012. Where is it you faggots?

>>15004883
i was about to say the same, these kids sound so self entitled and not realising how lucky they are.

>>15004903
So when will UBI be implemented and when will this giant recession hit? It's been almost 10 years.

>>15002193
Sweet vishnu

>>15002351
>stocks are always good
Look at Japan, that is our fate

>>15003155
This October

>>15004903
great write up

>>15005007
Oct 2021

>>15004903
thats a really interesting take, thankyou. Maybe ill move money into IVC for when shit hit the fan and people are jumping off building.

>>15001882
why wont we have a slow lost decade like japan. where things just decline very slowly for decades

>>15004995
The wheels are already in motion. QE softened the blow of 2008, the ramifications of that are only now taking effect. The Fed is now between a rock and a hard place. Everyone’s turning to the dollar for safety (look at the DXY) once that confidence wanes with the further devaluation of currency, that’s when will see a PM and BTC ATH.

They will hope UBI will stimulate the consumer. Truth is the boomers aren’t consumers in retirement, they won’t spend it and will add it to their stack of wealth. The younger generations are highly in debt (student debt, high mortgages, auto loans) and UBI will only go towards keeping afloat. None of this will stimulate the economy.

The boomer generation will go down as the most self-serving generation in history, once the millennials and Gen-Z’s finally realise what they’ve inherited. Raising the drawbridge on pension conditions, inflating asset values and real estate while putting policies in place to ensure they keep benefiting themselves until their dying breath have entirely pissed on the values of generations before and the younger after.

>>15005226
>muh muh boomers
Stfu, the financial revolution is easier than ever. Just buy bitcoins with ubi.

>>15005299
tell that to boomers. the only ones buying BTC are the ones on this board

>>15005299
this just hurt my brain

>>15005311
zoomers and millienials love their bitcoins. it's the perfect asset to forcibly transfer wealth from boomers to us.

>>15005324
the idea of leeching money from boomer ponzi into sound, probable, and public money hurts your brain?

>>15005338
no it just you didn't provide any sound argument, other than up ur boomers, buy bitcoin zoomer will win haha.

>>15001967
Your right it will never happen again, The Devs Fixed that bug

>>15004883
Whats the price of insulin in the U.S again?

>>15002246
I remember you anon.

Question: I have a shitty government job at the moment that has "high risk" (easy to get fired/fined/imprisoned by an innocent mistake) and high personal cost (nearly $100 parking permit) and low pay. What are the odds the government shuts down/fires me? Haven't had it for a month and am considering quitting already.

>>15002304
Wouldn't that lead to the collapse of the US?

>>15001895
looks like a smaller wave this time

>>15005487
oh, you again. just quit you cuck

>>15004903
What is QE?

>>15006006
Quantitative easing. ie. printing money

>>15006112
Thank you.
Could yo perhaps recommend some reading on the subject?
All my knowledge is meme tier.

>>15002405
Thanks anon. Interesting watch.

>>15001882
Sorry, this does not concern me in the last, as I'm all in Trustverse for the 2020 Asia crypto bubble.

>>15005328
Forcibly you say?

>>15006133
https://www.investopedia.com/investing-essentials-4689754

>>15006214
Eloberate pls.

>>15006344
Thanks!

>>15002441
with now decade long dovish ECB and negative interest rates, it's just a matter of time when (hyper)inflation hits, right?
They already announced more QE and even lower rates with the excuse being that inflation is too low. So playing with this in mind how can one Europoor like me get the most out of it? Maybe go silverchad all the way?
1. Get a load in Euros like 20-30k on 10-15y
2. Get all the silver (perhaps mining stocks as well)
3. Wait for hyperinflation
4. Pay up the whole loan with one silver eagle

Also finding banks that are more prone to insolvency. Unicredit is announced a few days ago firing of 14k employees and they have great exposure to (failing) Deutsche bank, but they also have the highest loan rates

>>15005226
Keep blaming boomers it's exactly what they want

>>15006133
The bank of England asset purchase facility shows what they are buying with QE funds

>>15005328
Literally this , as they inflate fiat to pay pensions they pump our coins.

>>15006445
Hiperinflation won't happen it's too easy to contain it with modern instruments and taxation systems.

What is happening already is the death of the youth by taxes.
Taxes taxes and more taxes ,while gibs and boomer pensions are rising.

So you have a generation of renters that own nothing and have lower wages than ever and you have boomers that won't sell property and will rent.

As a result no one will buy anything , the only way to keep this circus going is inflation and artificial pumping but that fucks the youth even more and also destroy boomer pension savings.

As a result boomers won't sell property and milenials will be renters forever.
Basically every western country is about to enter a shitstorm.

Very few countries like Chile or some eastern european countries in the western "sphere" , have been doing the right stuff needed to prevent this.

The rest are fucked.

>>15006445
>So playing with this in mind how can one Europoor like me get the most out of it

Stay away from precious metals unless you use it as hedge against equity & bond risk. That market is manipulated like crazy and you will end up losing money in the long run.

What will happen:

>European savers who stay in cash (like 80% of the population) getting haircut after haircut through negative interest rates
>QE
>lower rates
>more QE
>no structural reforms
>extreme parties voted into government, because free gibs for the proles
>euro devalues even more
>northern bloc gets fucked in the ass by southern spending and global trade wars

I have 70% of my net-worth in US$ denominated equity and won't sell until retirement. The other 30% is crypto with several potential moonshots. If you're in Euro equities and/or bonds, get out. That shit will blow up.

>signed, T. average western European

>>15006512
What did they buy? Source

>>15005464
Based

>>15001882
>he thinks a crisis will happen during the age of the clown

>>15006715
This guy gets it

>>15006715
we agree the value of euro is going to shit, so overall plan is to get it now that has value and transfer to something that will hold value
>That market is manipulated like crazy
yes, they are holding the price of silver down with futures that have no real backing
They cant manipulate it forever, someone (China?) is buying up a lot of silver

>>15007368
also picture related

>>15002246
>keep raising interest rates until you trigger a recession because of it
>okay time to lower interest rates
Why not just keep interest rates the same perpetually?

>>15006715
How does any of this result in PM's losing out in the long run?

>>15002264
wouldn't it be wiser to cull the herd and kill off these zombie companies so that stronger competitors can grow? is it just a lack of political will?

>>15001898
They will kill the $. Expect massive inflation and if they can't kickstart the economy anymore with more shekels it's over.

>>15002246
I have many regrets for being in fiat for the past 2 years. I jumped basically on the peak of crypto, I could have made a lot of money on the small bumps here and there (rally from 4k to 10k etc). Stocks have only just rebounded from the fall not far ago (has it been a year already?).
I do think we will be having a financial crisis very soon, within the year guaranteed. The market feels very confident and everyone is smug about how we haven't have a recession yet (it's delayed as fuck btw). I have 30k atm, I will be gradually going to 10% -> 20% etc until I'm in 90%, not trying to time the lowest point exactly.
Anyone doing something similar to me?

>>15004883
>technologically
agree
>culturally
OH NONONONONONONONONO

>>15006715
>US$ denominated equity

sorry but what do you mean by ''US$ denominated equity''?

>>15004883
>It's embarrassing how far behind nearly every other country is on earth culturally
Before the second world war, the US was by far the richest country in the world. But culturally and socially, it was a backwater. And you can see the effects of this in the amount of fundamentalism that remains in America even today; religious fundamentalists, for example, 40% of the population are not concerned about global warming simply because they believe that Christ is coming in a couple of decades. You can’t find that in Europe, can you?

>>15006715
pm is the safe bet, your wealth wont dimish but you probably wont make any big gains.

as your pre-poster pointed out, the european youth is fucked except the one in the north.
all others have rates between 20-60% unemployment for already 10 years. this is going to explode. either the radcial left or the radical right will exit from the euro sooner or later. i doubt any southern country is willing to go further down this road having another wasted 10 years.
imagine a whole country full of biz neets and their boomer parents.

>>15002381
b-but muh rocks

>libertarians btfo

>>15008097
>imagine a whole country full of biz neets and their boomer parents.

With all the immigrants around that's a firestorm waiting to engulf whole Europe and worse.

>>15006679

This man gets it. If you don’t see that this Economy is crashing with no survivors you are a blind sheep being led to the slaughter. Record homeless in major cities. People living in RV’S. Just look around your city and tell me we are doing fine.

>if you only knew how bad things really are

>>15007884
>40% of the population are not concerned about global warming simply because they believe that Christ is coming in a couple of decades.

Source?

>>15008733

Global warming is a meme. Its just cyclical solar activity. Were in for a grand solar minimum!

>>15009506

And yes, This means that the economic collapse and race wars in europe will occur during a moderate ice age.

>>15009517
so basically we're going to be riding wooly mammoths into battle and chucking spears at each other? sounds pretty based

>>15008733
>American Christians have become increasingly polarized on issues such as climate change, with the most conservative Christians that is, Southern Baptists and other evangelical Protestants expressing the most anti-environmental attitudes and attempting to suppress green efforts that have arisen in their own ranks. The reasons for this environmental backlash include conservatives suspicions that steward-ship, improperly understood, smacks of neo-pagan style nature worship and might even lead to anticapitalist sentiments. The backlash also depends on a reinvigorated belief in end times apocalypticism that makes it pointless to worry about global warming and other environmental problems.

>>15002246
Dude don't try to time the market since you don't how if there will be a crash and how long it last since it may span a decade or more, it may not be like 2001, 2008 or whatever. Just wagecuck and wait and see

>>15007440
you don't have to raise rates until you cause a recession. It's the fed's job to raise rates during the good times to moderate growth rate to a sustainable level. Raise rates a little bit at a time so you have say, 2.5% growth in the economy instead of 3% growth.

Raising interest rates (I think the actual name is the "federal funds rate") constricts the money supply and increases the value of the dollar. It helps limit inflation. It also makes money "more expensive" because borrowers have to pay a higher interest rate on their loans. This means people&companies have to make more sensible choices about what they borrow money for.
When money is "cheap" aka low interest rates, people&companies borrow money to make all kinds of stupid choices because there are no high interest "consequences" to borrowing the money.

>>15007687
yeah we'll see what happens. I think the important part is to keep an eye on things so you're not surprised when it happens and to diversify your assets

>>15009802
yeah i mean obviously every recession is different but it seems like the market finds the bottom in the course of a year or so anyway once it starts. I have a solid 20% in precious metals as a hedge against inflation (and it could go up if literal demand for it goes up regardless of the dollar value) so we'll see where that goes.

I'm wagecucking already as a milfag but i'm getting out in the next year and going to college (STEM) so i'll be taking a decent paycut. Deployment soon and I can't sell with no internet so obviously my situation's a little different than everyone else. I just dont want to get caught in a situation where we get a good little dip and i'm still holding because i think it'll go back up this time and it doesnt and just keeps going down

>>15006715
>I have 70% of my net-worth in US$ denominated equity and won't sell until retirement
Why? Why would you have almost your entire nw in equities if you believe a crash will happen? Then you are not able to take any advantage of the possible crash? Why not stay in CASH?

>>15004903
>Cash is probably the worst place to be ‘all in’ at the moment
Why? Cash is the best place to be during a recession

>>15004909
do you know what a money market account is? it's not cash, its very short debt low risk debt.

>>15008097
>pm is the safe bet, your wealth wont dimish but you probably wont make any big gains.

This is not guaranteed. It depends on the kind of recession; eg silver was shit during dotcom, gold was shit early 80s IIRC.

>>15010417
>Why? Why would you have almost your entire nw in equities if you believe a crash will happen? Then you are not able to take any advantage of the possible crash? Why not stay in CASH?

I said us$ denominated and I said I will hold until retirement. I'm absolutely not going to gamble away my retirement portfolio on a hunch.

If there are no structural changes in the Eurozone, the Euro will go to shit. The southern bloc will go to shit (aka the state they were in 25 years ago) either way. If there's structural changes pushed down their throats by the EU, they will leave create their own shit currency and devalue it constantly like they did 25 years ago. If there's no changes, they will keep dragging down the northern bloc and kill the Euro.

>tl;dr: lazy southern bloc morons kill Eurozone and you don't want exposure

Get US bonds people

>>15010501
I agree with you, but who says you need to hold euro. Why not go 40% short term US treasuries, 40% JPY and the rest in PM/crypto?

>>15010501
if the moors didnt have invade europe we would have a diligent south europe

>>15010655
>I agree with you, but who says you need to hold euro. Why not go 40% short term US treasuries, 40% JPY and the rest in PM/crypto?

Because no one knows when the next recession hits and how long it will take. I'm long US equity no matter what.

>>15010705
I see, I just feel like the upside in equities very limited at this point, while the downside could be extreme

>>15010065
>but i'm getting out in the next year and going to college
Did this last year. Using the GI bill right now, getting a CS degree. It's pretty fucking cool dude.

>>15010889
>I see, I just feel like the upside in equities very limited at this point, while the downside could be extreme
If you're an active trader or run a hedge fund, then that is 100% correct. If you just want to make sure your personal wealth is still there when you retire, it's different story.

I have 30 years until retirement, so I will start rotating out equity for T-Bills over the next decade or so (think VFIFX, I just have to manage it myself, because we don't have any cheap target retirement ETFs here in Europe).

>>15007884
>eurocuck cant help himself
>any chance he can take a bitchy shot at the US he takes it
>US WAS RICH
>BUT THEY BELIEVE IN GOD FUCKING KEK!!!!

can we range ban eurocucks?

>>15002193
Look at that toilet

>>15010947
This is the most boomer meme advise in this thread. Just because your grandad did it and passed that knowledge onto your dad, who then passed it onto you, doesn't mean it is still the best strategy.

This time is unironically different. Hard assets will yield more than the longest T-bill interest, all of which are complete shit anyway at this point.

I've heard this line too as a millennial, but let's look at the record of the boomers' financial decisions.

>>15011580
>PM will outperform equity and bonds over the next 30 years
let's talk again in 29 years, faggot. go buy some shitcoins while you're at it lmfao.

>>15005226
>>15006679

what makes you think boomers are doing anything different than any other senior group in history? individuals holding wealth to pass down to their generations.

i personally am seeing more boomers SELL their properties (which i think is a dumb move) because their pensions do not give them enough liquidity to hire management and maintenance/taxes on their extra properties.

>>15011620
I'm way ahead of you, and especially in profit.

Put your money in a guaranteed money-losing vehicle and thank your government for the opportunity to ass fuck you.

I love biz. I can't talk about this kind of stuff with my friends/family and I certainly didn't learn as much getting my bachelor's of commerce university degree. How did we all end up in this same place? Even the retarded anons that don't know what they're talking about teach me to critically think about things. Never change biz

>>15012018
y-you too

>>15012018
the wonders of anonymous posting.
you'll only progress if you hear unfiltered information and discuss it.

normies are incapable of that. all they want is being confirmed

>>15012018
Commerce here, it’s true. You learn so much more from biz then 3 years of debts

>>15005494
Not just the US, but every economy dependent on the US dollar I imagine. Cue in a one world currency fully endorsed by the IMF

>>15007884
Everyone is unironically dumber for having read this. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.

>>15001882
What does this say about my future job prospects? I've still got a couple years to go before graduating, though I'll have internships and networking before that of course. But what will this spell for the job market?

Im a brainlet eurotard, with all of my portfolio in crypto. What exactly should I do to prepare for this inevitable crash wise /biz/ frens? I shouldnt just cash out to euros and hold in a bank?

>>15005361
He's got a point though. I don't think we're in for smooth sailing either way though.

>>15006445
>negative interest rates
Shit like this is peak clown world and it's just fucking normal for some countries.

>>15012463
get at least 10% pm

>>15011800
>I'm way ahead of you, and especially in profit.
What's your track record over what period of time?
>inb4 bought a bunch of crypto in 2017 and made 20k over night

>>15007368
Yeah as far as I understand PMs are manipulated by paper. If the financial system shits the bed then there is no way these kikes can continue to run their paper scheme.

>>15004903
this is why i still come to /biz/

>>15001967
>>15001898

Pure definition of cope

>>15009889
The fed doing its job has caused every financial depression (and exuberance) since 1913.

If you faggots think we live in a captialist system you're wrong.

>>15012530
first of all, you switched to a strawman argument. You first said you were buying T-bills, and that's what I was referring to. In your response, you spun it up that I was referring to every single bond and equity. I was only staying on point to T-bills.

I don't have to prove anything to some anon boomer on a board of peace. You do need to get better at argument, though.

I haven't build enough capital to buy cheap. Wtf I do guys? Do I 100x leverage it all on bitcoin? I can't continue living if I miss out on the greatest recession of the age.

>>15002273
Oh hell yes. You can also buy gold and silver stocks. Theres a lot of 3X bull funds to buy. You can make a lot of money off these when everything collapses.

>>15010610
Yeah, the ones that just barely keep with inflation right? Good job, your money has done nothing for you.

>>15001882
Let me think what caused the last 3 big ones. Dotcom when normies literally bought in anything that has net in the name. Financial engineering in 2006. And the big one almost 100 years ago back when JP ran around saving individual banks with deposit schemes.

>>15002304
yeah because 2.5% is too high

fuck this economy

>>15003569
>>15003581
The crash will not come until this becomes the average sentiment among normies

>>15002017
Actually, this makes me feel better.
You should buy when other hands are weak.

>>15002264
Junk bonds are much more a problem for China than the rest of the world.
It'll have a knock on effect, but the US will not be hit as hard as everyone else

>>15001882
It ain't gonna be that bad, maybe similiar to the late 80s/early 90s recession, at least if Trump or a moderate dem wins

If Warren/Bernie win expect full retardation though

>>15004652
Oh wow,
Get a load of this guy.
It's like you've never picked up a history book.

>>15007717
>YouTube, SJWs, edgy /pol/ fags, and silicon valley represent American culture

If you believe this, then you're really dumb.

>>15002264
look at that lasy dump

>>15001882
>dude shits about to get real
really ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/u-s-factory-gauge-falls-to-lowest-level-of-trump-presidency

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-ways-gen-x-is-financially-wrecked-2019-02-08

https://psmag.com/news/the-suicide-rate-is-at-its-highest-in-a-half-century

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-trump-tax-cuts-are-still-bombing-154647685.html

https://www.engadget.com/2019/01/18/tesla-laying-off-7-percent-workforce/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/the-amount-of-retail-space-closing-in-2018-is-on-pace-to-break-record.html

https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/02/apple-slashes-q1-2019-forecast-blaming-china-and-low-iphone-upgrades/

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/15/business/payless-closing-stores-bankrupt/index.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-04/mnuchin-invokes-special-debt-measures-to-last-until-june-5?srnd=premium

>>15014972
Which ones are the moderate dems? Biden? Kamala?

Dems are being pulled far left economically by Bernietards unfortunately for us liberals who still believe in capitalism.

>>15015111
continued

from 4.1% last year while 80 retail chains died

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/us-gdp-q2-2018.html

to 2.1% this year

https://www.rep-am.com/news/news-business/2019/07/26/u-s-economy-slowed-to-2-1-growth-rate-in-second-quarter/

>>15001882

>>15015134
>>15014972
https://youtu.be/GOdNC55ROLQ

America will be Venezuela tier in 15-20 years if trends continue

>>15007884
die

>>15001967
that's the trap, exhaustion tactics, used in everything, really...

>>15002039
definition of "smart money" and "dumb money"?
where's the data, lebowski?

>>15002280
Run some student loan fraud scams right before the bottom falls out? Do you think we can set up one of those fake colleges like University of Phoenix and get retards to pay us for 4chan tier biz/ness degrees?

>>15004883
Boomer spotted
It's not 1982 anymore Grandpa, try going outside once in a while. This country is about 3 taco stands away from becoming Mexico.

>>15015134
At this point it's better to go full Bernie and just accelerate into the collapse. DJT has one more term and then we go back to blue and the borders are gone forever. See you there, anon.

>>15015083
what is american culture, then?

>>15015185
>cryptocurrency bubble
crypto marketcap is fucking peanuts, even if we're in a bubble now, it is a natural cycle on the macro-growth trend

If/when interests rates are dropped by the fed, how soon are they applied? So say the fed are dropping interest rates, can I that day after the meeting or the day after take out a loan for that now lower interest rate? I want to take a loan out now, but decided to wait till interest rates are lowered, I just don't know when the rates come into effect.

>>15004903
Just tell me what exactly to buy now Im a brainlet please

Whats the best gold ETF if I dont want to go full mad max with actual gold but just dodge a stock crash for a couple of months, then simply sell with the click of a button and buy the dip?

Whats the best gold ETF if I dont want to go full mad max with real gold but just dodge a stock crash for a couple of months, then afterwards sell and buy the dip?

>>15015566
if they raise them, they're raised immediately. If they are lowered, they wait until you receive their mail in the letter advertising the dropped rate. it's so fucking crook.

>>15015574
View it like this. Your money in your account is depreciating as we speak. If your ‘lucky’ enough to have a 1% savings rate and inflation is at 2%, your $ will be outpaced by whatever a carton of milk or a loaf of bread is raised each year to.

In order to overcome this fact, you have to beat inflation. You can only do this by investing.

Timeline for brainlets

>T-Bills short term will go higher due to flight to US dollar for safety, until faith in the $ turns.
>PMs have already started their run, harder to find value now in funds like GDX and GDXJ, is look to physical ETFs of Platinum, Palladium, Silver and Uranium and big quality PM miners that have taken a recent hit like Fresnillo.
>Take profits, and reserve some liquidity
>Invest in already out of favour defensive, high dividend paying stocks (that give higher returns than inflation) that won’t be effected as badly in stock market crash/recession and how they’ve reacted historically.
>Think about what people do in recessions, how government reacts. People gamble (Playtech) people drink (Diageo) people smoke/vape/weed (Imperial/BAT). Governments spend on infrastructure (transportation), agriculture (potash/fertiliser - Mosaic/nutrigen) Energy (green energy - solar/wind bullish for silver too) military (Lockheed, Boeing, BAE) telecoms (Vodafone etc) pharmaceuticals (Astrazenica/Glaxo)
>FAANGs tank as the market tops off and QE has limited effect. Passive pension funds take a massive hit (muh retirement).
>BTC and PMs go to an ATH, sell and invest more in the above to gain enough to live of the dividends.

>>15015880
Thank you anon, that truly is fucked.

>>15015910
Right now my money is invested in the Bank (6%), is it a good idea to invest in an oil company?

>>15016039
high oil prices might cause a recession, but usually oil dumps hard

>>15005435
It's not a bug, it's a (((feature)))

>>15016039
When the Rockefellas exited the industry a few years back, oil took a massive hit.

That was the perfect time in 2015 to have invested in Royal Dutch Shell as they are making massive investments into green energy and have the financial muscle to out manoeuvre the competition.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11114591/Rockefeller-family-sells-out-of-fossil-fuels-and-into-clean-energy.html

Oil is heavily manipulated, and at the current time I would steer clear going into a recession. Industrial demand would be less but the US shale has warped the market somewhat. The Middle East will be fucked, as they are damaging their oil well reserves by pumping at maximum rate to keep up. An Iran war would also effect things massively. Less output would raise the price however, but at this current time it may be better to watch from the sidelines.

>>15011661
>what makes you think boomers are doing anything different than any other senior group in history? individuals holding wealth to pass down to their generations.

Boomers are not investing to pass to generations, they have been buying property to protect themselves from inflation , not as an investment.

It used to be that houses weren't a good investment , just a thing to use.
As a result milenials don't own shit , they don't own , cars, houses , literally nothing.

The reason is not that boomers are acting differently , it's that they are doing the same while voting for taxes and gibs and regulations because the tower next door may give shadow to their garden.

As a result the youth is COLOSALLY fucked , and when i mean COLOSALLY , you can't even grasp the magnitude of this.
The car industry is about to die , construction will be kept only working in inecessary infrastructure projects done by the government.

And very soon basic consumption in things like cellphones is going to be rekt.
Why would the youth keep buying shit when 90% of their income goes to basic survival.

The boomers at least owned houses before 30 and only used 60 to 70% of their income for basic suvival.

Milenials are using nearly everything i am not making this shit up.
You have an entire generation that is not going to own nothing and as they have no ties to the land they are going to vote stupid shit making things worse.

>>15015185
Can I get a readable version of this? Thanks

>>15015555
checked and witnessed
Very cozy digits
We're all gonna make it

>>15007687

>worrying about 30k

Lol. Just jump in all at once, this isn’t 300k or 3 mil. A 50% drop is only -15k and if that does happen it WILL go back up eventually. Stocks are long term investments, think multiple decades. When you only have 30k don’t even worry about it

>>15015910
So T-bills, PM's, Crypto, and dividend paying stocks

>>15015185
>251x1024

>>15001898
The problem isn't that they are lowering rates, the problem is that they can't raise rates back up to 5+ percent again. Eventually the economy wont be able to tolerate even 1 percent rates so then what are the fuds going to do?

>>15018135
yeah we'll never see 5%+ interest rates in our lifetimes.

>>15001898
STFU dumbass. In the US "they" haven't even lowered rates once yet in over a decade.

Maybe this week.

>>15018135
>Eventually the economy wont be able to tolerate even 1 percent rates so then what are the fuds going to do?

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/

>>15018372
>"In a cashless world, there would be no lower bound on interest rates. A central bank could reduce the policy rate from, say, 2 percent to minus 4 percent to counter a severe recession. The interest rate cut would transmit to bank deposits, loans, and bonds. Without cash, depositors would have to pay the negative interest rate to keep their money with the bank, making consumption and investment more attractive. This would jolt lending, boost demand, and stimulate the economy."

Are this fuckers for real?What kind of brainlet could even think about this crap, what's next after -4% interest rates? - 100%?

Fuck Keynes , he truly fucked us all and unleashed a curse upon the earth.
If the entire economy punish savings who the fuck is going to invest for future growth.

>>15001882
german cuck here. If I sell I have to pay 25% taxes. Do you think the overall market will dump by more than 25%?

>>15007884

>>15001934
This isn’t surprising... the larger firms that make up the S&P have advantages the little guys don’t have. And many investors just buy the SPY. No one buys the Russell because they want big tried and true companies from the Dow and S&P.

>>15001956
This is what you’re trying to say, a RECESSION is coming. Not a financial crisis. It’s just that the most recent recession, and the only one you lived through, was triggered by a financial crisis.

>>15002039
What the fuck even is this, who’s the smart money?
>>15002246
lol that might have been me, I’m always telling people not to buy all at once.

Thing is, what did you base that off of? Most market tops I’m aware of have more of a double top, a “bear trap” built in.

You assume we’re already almost at the very top because of the yield curve inversion, but you don’t know how much higher we can go from here. Economic relationships aren’t always the same over time, like the low unemployment rate and the rate of inflation appear to have largely de-coupled. and the yield curve is distorted by the government buying up 10-year treasuries. Foreign governments and investors have been flooding into the bond market, because the rest of the world is so shakey and much of it is devaluing its currency.

>>15003155
I’m hearing the soonest is immediately after the 2020 election. You’ll know when people start to panic, that’s a good time to buy the beartrap and then sell before we set new records. At least, I hope that’s the case.

>>15002586
>>15002528
Oh, fuck you for this
It’s Italy, it’s not China or Japan or Germany or something. Sure, they’re massive and they’re a weak link in the chain, but I really can’t believe they’ll be the domino that starts it off.

Fuck you for leaving before you could explain yourself.

Lastly, oil? When we’re pumping out record levels of domestic oil and developing more of the Permian for drilling, and aren’t even running at full capacity?

>>15001882
Hedged with Trust Verse. Not worried about the Macro environment.

>>15018837
I used to think that about savings too, but saving is actually bad for growth, and deflationary. If money flows into savings accounts, it is flowing out of the economy, causing the relative value of currency to rise. When you can get more with a dollar tomorrow than you can today, you’re much more likely to delay purchases. If you can get a tractor today, but tomorrow you can get two tractors you’re going to put off the purchases and business investments needed for increased productivity and economic growth.

When the Japan central bank has negative interest rates, it means the regional banks are penalized when they store their money at the BOJ, which incentivized them to spend on things like private loans for businesses and entrepreneurs.

It’s a desperate measure but it makes sense as stimulus.

>>15001882
Everyone is calling for a crisis right now.

How old is biz? Was biz calling for a crisis before it hit in 2007?

>>15019183
>What the fuck even is this, who’s the smart money?
Institutional investors v trend and retail investors. The terms dont mean literally of what they have been named.

>>15002264
Thanks. How does one profit, or at least not lose from this though?

>>15019249
>It’s a desperate measure but it makes sense as stimulus.

But saving is needed for future growth since it's basically delayed investments you are basically stealing gdp from the future doing this shit.

No wonder milenials are poor as fuck and perpetual teenagers.
You banned savings and now they don't own houses as a result they rent , as a result they have less income and as a result they buy less now.

All you did was stealing prosperity from the future.
The same could be say for companies , instead of saving and investing in new stuff they just invest in retarded ideas that at least give them something above 1% return or in the case of stuff like coworkings at least they buy real estate this way.

But the entire economy instead of investing for prosperity is investing to escape the inflation.

Shit's retarded and will lead to neofeudalism.

Maybe a dumb question, but if I had the possibility of being 2 houses in the upcoming year mortgage free to rent out would that be a good option or would my money be better invested elsewhere?

>>15019296
Who are you talking to? I did this?

Millennials are saving though, Or at least investing in their their futures. Millennials are funding their IRA’s at least, while the baby-boomers are reaching retirement age, and almost half have nothing saved. From a recent article on a recent study of baby-boomers:
>In a nutshell, based on their numbers, about 11% have at least $500,000 saved for their retirement.
That’s not good.

But stuffing your money in a savings account isn’t actually an investment. It’s a wager that inflation won’t devalue your money.

This is not at all why millennials aren’t buying homes. Millennials aren’t buying homes because they’ve been priced out of the market. This has a lot to do with developers, partucularly in urban markets. And Another thing foreign investors like to do with their money is buy US property, which is part of why big cities like NY and LA have such high property value. The US real estate market is another seen as a safe haven asset.

>The same could be say for companies , instead of saving and investing in new stuff they just invest in retarded ideas that at least give them something above 1% return or in the case of stuff like coworkings at least they buy real estate this way.
What? Are you not a native English speaker? You don’t seem to have a solid grasp on the issue you’re bringing up of millennials and homes. They entered the work force during THE financial crisis, and thus haven’t earned as much as other generations at their age, and also have a massive distrust of financial institutions.

It is going to get ugly /biz/

Beign physically fit and able to rob/loot will be the best currency soon

>>15001882
>>15001895
>>15001898
>>15001934
>>15001956
>>15001967
>>15002017
>>15002039
>>15002061
>>15002109
>>15002110
>>15002193
>>15002215
>>15002223
>>15002232
>>15002246
>>15002264
>>15002273
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>>15002294
>>15002304
>>15002306
>>15002307
>>15002325
>>15002351
>>15002353
>>15002381
>>15002401
>>15002405
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>>15002436
>>15002441
>>15002450
>>15002452
>>15002485
>>15002515
>>15002528
>>15002532
>>15002575
>>15002586
>>15002628
>>15002729
>>15002745
>>15002766
>>15002791
>>15002801
>>15003047
>>15003086
So how do we get rich from this?

>>15012491
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/29/Enabling-Deep-Negative-Rates-A-Guide-46598

IMF sending instructions how to handle this. Check "XV. Using Communication Tools to Overcome Political Challenges" at least

>>15016394
Boomers will die eventually. They can't take their precious with them.

>>15001882
Bitch i got that bitcoin cash

>>15019457
Sorry anon I am tired and phoneposting my point is that low interest rates force bad investments that can only work with low interests rates.

Good ideas are fucked up with low interest rates.

>>15004903
How do you feel about VHYAX? I'm sitting on some cash and don't know what to do with it.

Thing is stocks could rise another 2-3x before any crash. Then "buying the bottom" could be buying 2x from here. And buying the top, if you think its right now or maybe 110-120% of right now, and riding out the bottom is still better than holding cash through the bottom. Did you buy the absolute bottom in dec 2018 / jan 2019? That was essentially one of the biggest stock market crashes in decades, and I doubt many people bought the bottom thinking it was over. Tons of threads on /biz/ about it dropping another 50%.

No one knows what stocks will do in the next couple years, because its almost entirely dependent on fed policy which is decided by 5 people right now in a back room. What we do know is that the dollar will lose in the long run. The only value in holding cash is to buy assets if asset values fall in the short term. So I just keep 40% of my net worth in cash at all times right now, if there is a deflationary recession I will have plenty of cash to profit, and I will also have plenty of upside if there is no crash. Its a win win.

>>15020134
The dollar is not losing value, not only they're the biggest country by GPD, they have tons of immigrants that will do low level jobs if needed. If anything, EU is going down that path because it's way bigger than the US and at the same time doesn't get as many immigrants and there's internal competition among countries. So if something happens, a bunch of people in retirement homes won't pull up the economy for a long time

>>15020155
The EU wont go down its totally pumping. The euro is going to the moon

>>15002017
It's MUCH bigger than x2

The market will moon for next 1-2 years, then shit will hit the fan.

>>15002325

student debt can’t be defaulted either

>>15019481
t.nigger

>>15020406

Of course student debt can be defaulted on. It is much harder to have them discharged in bankruptcies. But you can't collect from someone money they don't have.