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13627765 No.13627765 [Reply] [Original]

First period 2009 to 2012(pre halving)
Available: 10,500,000 BTC (50% mined)
Price increased from : 0.1 to 31 $ (319 times growth)

Second Period 2012 to 2015 (1st halving was 11/2012)
Best Buy was a year before Halving
Available :15,750,000 (75% mined)
Price increased from : 1.85 to 1135 S (575 times Growth)

Third period 2015 to 2018 (2nd Halving was 6/2016)
Best Buy was a year before Halving
Available :18,375,000 (87.5% mined)
Price increased from : 165 to 19k S (115 times Growth)

Considering that the low value after the bubble has been 3200 usd let´s assume we grow instead of 115 times , half of that(a massive reduction in growth) , 57,5 times.

That gives us a price of 182k somewere around 2021.

And this is assuming a massive slowing down in the price increases happening between halvings.

Also bitcoin will have lower inflation than the usd and eur early next year.

Assuming it keeps with the trends and we grow let´s say 100% we are going to 320k.

But we will have lower inflation than the usd and eur so relative to fiat it will be a constant growth so maybe John does not eat his dick.

Bitcoin biggest growth between halvings has been 575 times the price(during the golden era of adoption).

Now adoption on retail has reduced it´s growth but everyday transactions have been increasing massively.
I literally downloaded the entire blockchain last week and the first 6 years were downloaded fast as fuck.
After mid 2015 shit got serious and started to take a lot of time due to the ammount of transactions.

Let´s say that instead of growing 525 times the price we grow 320 this time.
That gives us 1 Million dollars , it´s in the realm of possibilities anon and we had that growth already in btc.

Do the math and you will find my words to be true.

>> No.13627836

I'm rooting for John desu

>> No.13627912

that would mean we all gonna make it

>> No.13627970
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13627970

>>13627912
Even at the worse scenario we already make it , keynes already lost , he just does not know it.

>> No.13628007

>>13627765
>First period 2009 to 2012(pre halving)
>Available: 10,500,000 BTC (50% mined)
>Price increased from : 0.1 to 31 $ (319 times growth)

btc original price was not 0.1$
it was 0.00076$

>> No.13628019

>>13628007
it´s hard to put a market price to the early days because it was a meme market.

>> No.13628061

>>13628019
there was http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/2009+Exchange+Rate

>> No.13628135
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13628135

>>13628061
Were do you see us going now wise anon?Price 16 months after the halving?

>> No.13628260
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13628260

>>13627765

>> No.13628300

>>13628135
this market is just too manipulated to predict anything anymore I'm so done and Kms this week
have fun with this shit and remember if you buy btc now you're buying something which increased 1 000 000 000X in value since it's creation

>> No.13628364
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13628364

>>13628300
Bitcoin is not increasing in value as much as fiat is lossing value.
Why do you think housing and things you can´t import have increased in value massively?

Once btc reaches lower levels of inflation than fiat next year it will enter the same category of things like housing or gold and will be unstoppeable.

>> No.13628433

>>13627765
>That gives us a price of 182k somewere around 2021.
I want to believe. But how do we justify buying these prices when mining costs a fraction of this

>> No.13628478
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13628478

>>13628433
Bitcoin is used for international wires

for example let´s say that britbongistan ask loisences to send money.

So you do

100 GBP > 1 BTC > 90 USD

notices the last part 1 BTC > 90 USD

When you do that movement you sell the btc to someone doing the same in reverse.
So there is a constant demand of scarce btc to do international transactions.

After the halving the ammount of btc created per year is reduced by half.

So now you do

100 GBP > 0.5 BTC > 90 USD

all that changed is that you now use less btc for the same transaction due to them being rarer.

But for the investor it´s literally massive gains.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/oKh54NhX-Bitcoin-Halving-and-Charting/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/vTkvzzQY-The-die-is-cast-the-four-year-cycle/

Basically at a constant demand without the growth or adoption the price would keep growing because the ever decreasing ammount of supply.
From forgoten wallets to dying holders + halving , everything leads to increase in price long term(except two years after the halving were you have a shit year due to the bubble collapsing).

>> No.13628501
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13628501

>>13627765
You under estimate the violence to get to that point

>> No.13628507

>>13628364
i'm sorry what ?
inflation since 09 is like 20%, btc went up 1000000000 %

there's no real reason why the price should go up period

>> No.13628571
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13628571

>>13628507
That´s the usd inflation , btc is being pumped by global inflation, also the inflation you are using is the one in general products.
Look at housing(or things you can´t import) and see what the inflation is , it´s probably 150% if not more (importing cheap shit is a way of hidding that as you deindustrialize).

Also btc supply is way lower than people think , there are going to be about 14M btc in 100 years since most were lost early days.

BTC Growth is game theory as pointed here.

>>13628478

>> No.13628581

>>13628478
Where do you see the next peak occurring during the next halvening anon?

>> No.13628591

>>13628501
Explain please anon.

>> No.13628625

>>13628581
Hard to know but it will be during the us elections 100% , this may increase the price or decrease it massively but it´s going up either way , the question will be.

The peak in my opinion will be around may 2022.
But it will be very volatile due to the us elections.

>> No.13628670

>>13628625
and before someone tells me that the us elections will be a year and a half from the peak.

The bullrun will start going up massively around the us elections , and it will PEAK around early 2022.

>> No.13628719

I'm just as bullish as you. I'm also basically 100% allocated to crypto (mostly BTC) at this point. I don't see any other asset class that has the same risk to return potential, nor do I see BTC dropping below 3k again.

>> No.13628758

>>13628719
Agree but it may return to 4k soon.

>> No.13629382

>>13628478
Are you seriously this retarded? The supply of bitcoin doesn't decrease due to transactions, fees goes to miners you imbecile.

>> No.13629405

>>13628571
>Also btc supply is way lower than people think , there are going to be about 14M btc in 100 years since most were lost early days.
>Source: my ass.

>> No.13629411

>>13629382
The supply decreases because the halving you fucking retard , this + constant ammount of demand causes an increase in price.

>> No.13629901

>>13629411
What the fuck is halving? Did you just made this shit?

>> No.13629967

>>13629901
t. brainlet; 1/2018 buyer

>> No.13630188
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13630188

Imagine not buying Bitcoin to protect your wealth from the jews and making you enough rich to live in Citadel

>> No.13630227

>>13629901
Lurk moar newfag , it may save your life

>>13628478
Follow this links

>> No.13630265
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13630265

>>13627912
No, most will either sell too early, or lose them trying to trade/shitcoins.

>> No.13630284
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13630284

>>13628507
>why should the only unconfiscatable asset on earth keep going up against infinite "debt based" infinite supply fiat
sweet summer child

>> No.13630285

>>13630188
i get the strong feeling the jews have already coopted bitcoin. when it shit itself to death after the afrowhites in chacago started trading in 2018 and now the new york halfniggers are starting to institutionalize it plus barry silbert and other jews got grubby stubby fingers on it, not interested in bitcoin but still keeping an eye on the aryan run coins that mostly rise against bitcoin

>> No.13630338
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13630338

>>13630265
Kek almighty , this is the stuff that will give me nightmares in 2021 when we all start to panick about what is the top.

At least i will have something to scare me into leaving early before the bubble pops.
Tough i probably will never leave if my theory about btc having lower inflation than fiat leads to an ethernal bullrun.

>> No.13630355
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13630355

>>13630285
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnz2oo8MRas

>> No.13630696
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13630696

>>13630284
Woke

>> No.13630994

I’ve had iron hands with my 2 BTC since 2015. When do we sell boys? If we get anywhere near $100k its going to be hard to simply hodl. Also, how do we take our crypto assets and really “make it” long term? Buy cash flow assets? We’re gonna get rekt on taxes so gotta factor that in. Mo money mo problems.

>> No.13631034

>>13630994
Literally never sell your Btc. Only accumulate during lows.

>> No.13631041
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13631041

>>13630994
>We’re gonna get rekt on taxes so gotta factor that in
>paying taxes on your crypto

>> No.13631063

>>13630994
>Paying taxes on crypto


>>13631034
This

>> No.13631124

>>13627765
this would mean that there are literal skinny 20 year old basement nerds that have more than 10 billion dollars. Not possible

>> No.13631269

>>13630994
its an asset. peel off SMALL gains once you double/triple your original investment.
use those peels to buy other assets

>> No.13631281

>>13631124
you are thinking like the 90s
the internet is not what it used to be
it's not a 'thing' for 'nerds' anymore
wake up

>> No.13631291

>>13631269
Kek... Original investment was like $600

>> No.13631306

>>13631124
That´s what they said

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAkuJXGldrM

>> No.13631378
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13631378

>>13631291
Kek last week i found an old wallet and the remains of a transaction that were cents back then were 10 usd today.

We are all going to make it anon.

>> No.13631391
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13631391

>>13631306
and then you wake up

>> No.13631405

>>13631391
delusional nocoiner cope

>> No.13631440
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13631440

>>13631391
logfag chartfag oldfag

>> No.13631470

>>13631391
ok santiago

>> No.13631533

>>13631391
>Price collapsing
>Before the halving

>> No.13631555

>>13627765
BTC will never be faster than 7 transactions per second.

>> No.13631574

>>13631555
So?It´s only rivaling swift and sepa.

After that it will become the reserve currency of the crypto world and other crypto(probably litecoin or bch) replace btc for everyday transactions while btc becomes the standard crypto for saving due to it´s hashing power.

>> No.13631581

Bitcoin is the iPhone
Altcoins are Android
And everyone's still using flip phones

>> No.13631616
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13631616

>>13631581

>> No.13631663

>>13631440
Someone make Boomer Energy pls. I will switch from Monster to that.

>> No.13631689

>>13631616
except for a gf lol

>> No.13631744

>>13631574
BTC is not good as a store of value because it requires constant high energy consumption. Currently, the network consumes the same amount of energy as a small country. Imagine the power necessary to run the network if BTC marketcap goes 100x. That means x^100 more electricity is needed, more than the amount produced by the whole world.

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_energy_consumption

>> No.13631794

>>13631744
that is paid for by the transaction fees

>> No.13631820
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13631820

>>13631794
It doesn't matter. The supply of electricity is limited. No one's going want rolling blackouts just to run the bitcoin network.

>> No.13631821
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13631821

>>13631744
That´s a keynsian shilling anti bitcoin propaganda argument.
BTC energy consumption is probably lower than what sepa and swift use to operate.

Also after the next halving the consumption will be reduced since reaching the moore law limits means that only way for miners to be better than the rest of miners(since technological progress in chips will stop) will be to optimize their mining to be cleanest since hash / kw will become the only metric for them to earn money.

Give 2 years to 3 for that to happen but it will since the moore law is dying soon.

>> No.13631847

>>13631820
>>13631821
Also if governments shut down mining the difficulty decreases and now you can mine with your own fucking computer and if they somehow stop that then with your cellphone.

They can´t stop it.

>> No.13631872

>>13631821
BTC is used by much less people and it's already using significant amount of electricity.

>> No.13631906

>>13631847
this it will consume as much power as it can

>> No.13631918

>>13631872
power consumption is uncorrelated to the user count tho

>> No.13631976

>>13631872
>>13631918
>power consumption is uncorrelated to the user count tho

Exactly , power consumption is more about the price.
If this shit succeeds it will use more power as more people mine it.

This is like blaming cars for using power and saying government has to ban cars since horses use less energy.

It´s bitocoin success what increases it´s energy use.

>> No.13632026
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13632026

>>13629901
>being this new

>> No.13632034

>>13627765
fuck jews

>> No.13632059
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13632059

>>13631906
>>13631918
>>13631847
>>13631872
except the cost of electricity is near-zero already
running a BTC node is like a small heater in everyone's house
Are you typing this thinking it's the past?
we nearly have self driving cars
compute power is almost FREE

>> No.13632115

>>13632059
Kek fucking this, I use mining as a heating tool in the winter

>> No.13632442

>>13632115
Based and redpilled