/biz/ - Business & Finance

Probability doesn't work like that.

It could pick the same spot 10x in a row, it's unlikely but it's a possibility.

Each game is independent.

ignoring various math mistakes you made
why do you assume a centralized website plays fair?
these "games" aren't charities, they're designed to make suckers think you can outwit them
it might be something as simple as not letting you withdraw beyond a certain amount
in any case, unless you're doing this for the thrill of gambling, you're losing your money (who cares) and your time (you should care about that if you don't want to stay poor)

>>13546496
That's what I mean it's always possible to happen at any time but in the long run unlikely and should play out in your favor? I've been messing with it and profited so far

>>13546507
I know these sites and casinos in general are designed to profit but every so often we do see a player find a way to beat the odds and come out on top. It's working too well to feel like there isn't something here and math is on our side

>>13546502
Elaborate?

>>13546486
Are you that fag who tilts his notebook to magically win?

Okay dumb fuck fag boy let's see you get rich right now then

Also you do realise you're betting almost 6k per pop... If you're comfortable with losing that amount of money in one hit, all credit to you.

>>13546486

you're failing basic math

>>13546567
You make such little sense idk if I should feel bad or not about letting you know you're the fag that you are

>>13546571
What's with the hate? You're clearly a peace of shit.

>>13546531
Your maths are completely fucked. The chance for a bomb to land twice in the same tile in a 5x5 grid is not 1/50, but 1/625. Furthermore, if a bomb lands on a tile, the chances for it to land on that tile again is not 1/625, but 1/25 again. You're thinking of probabilities completely wrong.

>>13546593
I'm not sure how you got 1/625 because 25+25=50 If it was 1/625 wouldn't that only increase the chance to win by a ton

>>13546585
That would actually suck to lose but the odds are low and I should build up a lot to cover the loss and have profit before the loss comes

>>13546606
Go all in or shut the fuck up dumbass

>>13546606
I don't know what the game you linked is about, but, if we're talking a bomb-icon appearing on a random tile in a 5x5 grid, the chances for it appearing on any single tile is 1/25, and the chance for it appearing on a single tile twice in a row is (1/25) * (1/25) = 1/625.

This doesn't mean that if it appears on a tile once, that it has a 1/625 chance of appearing on it again. It has a 1/25 chance of appearing on it again (this is where you fail at maths)

>>13546589
Not my fault if you gamblers are degenerate, /x/-tier delusional. Btw it's all in the archives niggerboi

I learned that you can do sure bets trading future-contracts, essentially if the future contract is higher in price than the current price of the commodity, you short the future and long the commodity. When the date the future contract expires comes up, the price of the future contract and the current price will be the same.

Does anyone know if you can make meaningful gains off of this?

The site is stake.com and it has a house edge of 1% which means you will lose money over time...

>>13546646
This guy is actually fucking retarded

>>13546747
Whatever, die

>>13546641
But if you play 2 games how are you ever going to see 625 blocks there will be only 50 every time

>>13546650
wtf?

>>13546760
I was talking about the op but sure fuck you too

>>13546803
Kek, my bad faggot fren

>>13546486
Statistically, the bomb appears wherever you clicked 1/25 of the time. Assuming each round is randomly placed of course. The programming of the outcome could also be different where it puts the bomb where you click at a slightly higher rate. If it's 'fair' and 'random' though it should be 1/25 wherever you click. Look into Bayesean probability. The probability of it being in spot A given it was in spot A the last round is still 1/25.

>>13546803
>>13546806
This is what's wrong with 4chan. You actually try to have a conversation and you get these clowns. You really have nothing better to do than talk shit online and it says a lot about your pathetic lives. Now gtfo my thread thanks :)

What site is this even

>>13546821
LOLLL I run this shit on /biz so how about you gtfo my entire fucking board you'd prob gamble your 5 iq if you could so learn to get some culture and class

Being at that age where you know just enough stuff to be able to be a full-on retard costed me 100k$ OP.

>>13546857
>le 12 year old "i own stuff" nigger
fuck off newfag

>>13546885
>getting baited

>>13546835
It's stake.com

>>13546871
I mean I've only lost once so far and I'm still in profit so it's a low chance to get another loss so soon. How did you lose $100,000 that blows

Haha OP cant into highschool math. Let me guess, you are doing manual labour aren't you op

>>13546486
Jesus cucking christ. I used to work as a Blackjack and roulette dealer and your math is even more retarded than what I heard from the players

I've not even read the op but I can already tell that the probability calculation will be wrong and, surprise surprise, whatever gambling site you are creatively shilling isn't operating at a loss.

>>13546909
And you can't into high school grammar. And what if I am? There's plenty of successful manual labor jobs that are far better than your unemployed ass watching daytime tv and trolling 4chan all day. Get a life

the probability is always 1/25 to get the bomb, the events are independent

>>13546885
Newfag? Ive been here longer than we knew you were fucking retarded and that's a loooooong time hahahha

>>13546930
Even if this was true which I think is questionable that would make it 2/50, 3/75, 4/100 and keep going. Before idiots start flaming I understand how to reduce fractions but given the context would you not prefer 96 spots where you win? For the cost of 3 extra losing spots you gain 72 winning spots which is a good trade

>>13546821
>You really have nothing better to do than talk shit online and it says a lot about your pathetic lives
And what did you just do?

You're dumb as fuck. If the bomb is on space 1 on your first turn, the chances of it being on space 1 aren't any lower or higher on turn 2. They are completely separate instances and have correlation to each other.

>>13546772
No it is actually statistically possible to win lots of money on this game. Just duble your previous bet each time you lose so that you can cover your previous loss. Every time you win start over with lowest possible bet. I made like 400bucks from 10 a few weeks ago, altough it was in casino ;)

>>13546998
mate say the first square has the bomb, the probability for the first square to have the bomb next game is 1/25 not 1/25*1/25, it would only be 1/625 in 2 indepedent runs for the same square . you already know the bomb went in that square the first game so it's not 1/25, the event already happened and the second one is independent so it's just 1/25 not 1/25*1/25 because the first already occurred and is independent of the second

>>13547121
>you already know the bomb went in that square the first game so it's not 1/625 *

OP is just advertising his gambling game

SAGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEe

>>13546486
no, youre retarded.

yes the odds that the bomb appears in the same box 2 times in a row are 1/50, but since its a new round the chances you lose stay at 1/25. Its not a workaround, it simply makes you think you have a "technique" to multiply ur money. you will lose in the end.

Same reason the "Martingale" doesnt work (use google) in roulette. yes chances are pretty low that the ball will hit red 10 Times in a row, that doesnt mean that odds arent 50/50 in the 11th game tho.

Each round/game is independent, dont fool urself.

>>13546486
It's so simple even you could figure it out, yet the rest of 4chan wants to warp probability rules to dissuade you from getting rich because they are jealous of your success. Someone with no math training, reasoning skills, or higher education cracked the code and everyone here is full of salt.

Godspeed OP and after you get rich from this you should look into the possibilities available to one with a high level of chemistry knowledge (al**emy) and perhaps divert your efforts there. Someone with as sharp a wit as you might succeed where countless others have failed.

i cant believe this isnt actually bait.

>>13547156
>>yes the odds that the bomb appears in the same box 2 times in a row are 1/50

That's not how probability works. It's not 1/50 but 1/625. The rest of what you said is correct

>>13547085
If I'm dumb as fuck what does that make you then because I promise you I'm on the higher intelligence end here out of this bunch

>>13547105
Glad to hear you're in profit and not talking shit, grats

>>13547131
Okay but you're still missing the point of how 2 games has 50 spots...

>>13547159
Flex harder because I already graduated from university and if anyone is going to beat the odds here it's me because I've seen nothing but uneducated freaks here 90% of you at least

>>13547219
Uneducated yet you think you can beat the house? You're fucking shit if you think you're smart with your "guaranteed profit" I guarantee you already lost everything fag LOL

>>13546821
Honk Honk

>>13546486
>BUT what are the odds of the bomb appearing on the same tile twice in a row? That would be 1/50.
The ultimate state...

>>13547340
You're just a poor child lurking biz for some kind of opportunity but guess what it's not coming because you're useless. 0 contribution in any post you make and I'm sure that goes for every thread here that's unlucky enough to have a degen like you on it

>>13546486
Fucktard brainlet go back to school

>>13547497
Already went to university for 5 years nice try though :) How's your GED going? We know you couldn't finish high school but you'll get that GED one day I believe in you

>>13547516
>doesn't understand high school math
>acts smug and lies about going to uni
oh am i laughing, thanks for my weekly kek tard

>>13547530
I seriously hope he's just pretending to not understand basic probability

>>13547166
youre right, my bad.

>>13547219
>graduated from university

cool dude, you're still obviously not competent of logical thought. What kind of degree did you get? Gender studies? congratulations.

this is one of the best threads ive seen in a while, thank you US School system.

For anyone trying to call me dumb or that I didn't finish uni anything to say now fucktards? didn't think so. I even left the dust on it to show you how long it's been. In short...GET ABSOLUTELY FUCKED 4CHAN

Double color ribbons shows I finished in top 50 of the class so I think this wraps up the debate over who's the retarded idiot ;)

If anything sounds risk free then you do not understand it well enough

>>13547746
LOLOL did you seriously post a stupid fucking hat??? I'm in tears from how much im laughing at your stupidity hahaha anyone notice how this dickwad never responded when I said I bet he lost everything??

>>13547746
lol he had to go to college

>>13547868
ye my mom made me when I was 18 lol but it paid off because now I'm smarter than everyone on 4chan

>>13547847
That's right I did and as I thought you have nothing to say. I'm actually up even more btc than when I started so fuck you there too. Don't be a hater because I got everything the bitcoin, the degree, the girls I got everything so you can stfu now

>>13547746
So how much have you won with this strategy? That's all I care about.

>>13547970
More than a guy like you could ever imagine no offense. Anyone thinking I lost it all or I'm stupid check that balance how many times am I going to shit on 4chan tonight with facts? Unstoppable irl, at the casino, on 4chan. Come at me

>>13547746
thats funny, you seem mad. A uni graduate should know that you cant beat the house. you are beyond help and that education was wasted on you.

>>13548121
>Come at me

>>13548121
Nice bro. Fuck those /biz/tard poorfags. Larping faggots pieces of shits. Prolly some niggers or shitskins anyway.

>>13548133
Maybe I am a little heated but I gave my trigger warning 10 posts back so if you can't handle the consequences I suggest you leave now before you get hurt. Go fuck your my little pony doll or whatever you nerds do when you're not being a delinquent on 4chan

>>13548210
Exactly bro finally someone in the sea of broke ass retards who understands

>>13548267
Brag about your 2 shitcoins more because you'll lose it and I know this you really think you can go all the way and make a casino bust then you're a delusional retard faggot and im going to be here laughing my fucking ass off when you bust and start raging

>>13548349
I never fucking said I can make stake bust all I said was I can easily make money off this and then LEAVE stupid little shit you're so pissed you're broke ass can't make any bitcoin and that's why you want to bring me down but guess what I'll always be on top

>>13546486
>it's less likely to appear in the same spot twice

lmao

>>13548121
Just take the winnings m8...

Long thread but was funny and worth the read

>>13546486
The chances of the same tile being picked twice is also 1/25. Your math is based on a false premise.

100% rigged

Bump for updates OP, have you made a million dollars yet?

>>13548689
>No.13548689
Stake isn't rigged just the OP is clueless

>>13548121
Bahahahha, bruh you gonna get fucked.
I actually play on this site regularly and have cashed out several times over.

You should read how mines is calculated.
There is no set place for the mines to be.. the calculations are done the moment you press bet how many times you can reveal.

You have a better chance rolling dice

>>13548624
Oh I'm still taking this winnings as we speak don't you worry about that

>>13548671
You're a false premise this shit is legit as fuck and we better start playing Queen because I want it allllll I want it allllll

>>13548811
You want an update I'll give you one when I make a little more

>>13548899
I read I calculated and I conquered man I feel unstoppable right now

>>13546486
hidden shill, sage and ignore

>>13548969
How much bitcoin have you made so far will you make it rain in chat pls

>>13548121
My Grandfather smoked his whole life. I was about 10 years old when my mother said to him, 'If you ever want to see your grandchildren graduate, you have to stop immediately.'. Tears welled up in his eyes when he realized what exactly was at stake. He gave it up immediately. Three years later he died of lung cancer. It was really sad and destroyed me. My mother said to me- 'Don't ever smoke. Please don't put your family through what your Grandfather put us through." I agreed. At 28, I have never touched a cigarette. I must say, I feel a very slight sense of regret for never having done it, because your post gave me cancer anyway.

>>13548969
you sound even more obnoxious than the bitconnect guy, end your life immediately

>>13549005
Tell you what once I reach my goal I'll win one more for the team and do a rain before cash out no problem I have plenty to share rn

>>13549017
Hahah nothing you can say will bring me down rn this is probably the best night of my life. And I did end my life I'm a new man after today fucking stake out of this much bitcoin

I don't understand programming or math, but invest in crypto the post.

>>13549060
When will the rain be sir? I'm hoping soon

>>13548969
Quit while your ahead bro, have you gambled much in your life or is this your first real taste?

>>13549202
That rain is coming don't you fucking worry man

>>13549221
I used to play poker with change for fun but I've never done anything like this before I smashed my goal twice already just one more and I'm out this time

>>13549268
Okay I will wait...good luck with your games...

>>13547219
Yeah I figured it was too obvious I was making fun of you even with how retarded you are. Great troll thread though really got /biz/ to come alive.

>>13548821
go play hi-lo, all in on lower than a king.

We made it boys! 1 bitcoin to 4 in one session with my strategy that people think is retarded. Sure there were a few losses on the way but I pulled through like I knew I always do. Thanks haters stay broke :) :) :) Such a good night

only 4 bitcoin? probably because you're too much of a bitch to keep going and get 5 like a man

Holy shit this fucking sped still going?

>>13549761
I agree he'll back out like a coward

>>13549761
>>13549846

lol? Are you idiots serious? Let's see both of you combined make 1 bitcoin to 4 and then we will see who the real man is around here

i have made far less to far more and now i am set for life I dont need to gamble I do propeties and stocks unlike you fucking piece of shit nerds

>>13549968
Nice lie fag I'm the only one here with something to show everyone else is all talk so show the bitcoin or shut up and take a seat behind your superior that is I and forever will be the number 1 bitcoin earner on /biz

>>13550014
You're not earning shit you're a lucky fuck that's still too scared to go for 5 btc because you know this can't last

well if you are the number 1 bitcoin earner then theres no reason to stop talk again when you hit 5 or shut your big mouth

>>13550316
>>13550129

What was that? I won't go for 5 well you're fucking right because that's nearly 6 btc. Guess what happens when I cash out +0.76 bitcoin in my wallet do something about it besides be upset

>>13551151
Flip a coin. What are the odds of getting heads?
Now flip two coins. What are the odds of getting heads on both?

>>13551247

25%

>>13551466
alright you made it and now you are cashing out? fucking weak soul I bet any of us would do better than you with what you got there

OP IS THE SITE OWNER SPAMMING HIS CASINO YOU STUPID FUCKING FAGGOTS

>>13551491
cashed out I win ;)

>>13551612
fucking right I am I own /biz and /stake and /you the world is next

>>13546531
the odds are still 1/25 each game, no matter what.

YOU DONT OWN SHIT YOU FUCKING MONKEY
PROVE IT IDIOT

>>13547105
>martingale strategy, not new and classic example of gamblers fallacy lol

>>13551913
He will never understand or doesn't want to understand to follow superstitious beliefs honestly this thread is starting to feel like home with the entertainment even though op is a fucking idiot either way

>>13551966
what is martingale

Us players not allowed WTF

Actual probability of selecting 1 of the 24 winning tiles = 24/25 = 0.96.
Implied probability of 1.03 decimal odds = 1 / 1.03 = ~0.97

Actual probability - implied probability = edge.
0.96 - 0.97 = -0.01.

Congratulations OP you are making bets with a negative expected value.

>>13552520
"this is the best strategy ever, i'm invincible"
"i won 10 times in a row, i'm invincible"
"fuck i lost all"
cit. martingale addicted gambler

>>13553349
I can't even read this because it's so stupid the only value I expect is the one going up in my wallet right now still

This is the most biz post ive ever seen

>>13553964
So many idiots they think they're actually tricking me into betting hoping to watch me lose. please tell me bro why is it like this What kind of person are they we don't even know each other and the goal of their day is to watch me lose.Sure call all the names you want assgoblin but why you want me to lose? You're clearly so insecure about your current finical situation that the only way you can feel better is to watch people fall below you. Guess what though that's never going to happen dickrod. However it doesn't mean we can't be friends...

>>13553872
If I offered you odds of 1.96 on a coin flip would you take it?

Choosing the 1 bomb setting and opening 1 tile works best if you have big bank roll,. if you can sit all day and play with 1.03 multiplier. This is the safest bet you can make and if your lucky the probability and chances of doubling your money is high compare to other games.

>>13547746

>FSU colors

Suddenly this thread makes sense.

> If you know last week's Powerball numbers, you know what numbers it won't be next week!

>>13555155

Only that actually works. I can tell you with near-certainty that last week's Powerball numbers will not be this week's Powerball numbers. If only there was a way to short lottery tickets.

>>13555233
Same lottery numbers coming up twice in a row has happened multiple times. For example: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1214143/Bulgaria-lottery-picks-numbers-consecutive-weeks-Who-needs-Derren-Brown.html

>>13554758
yes exactly but when you start with a high percentage of your bankroll it's a matter of getting through the early bets but it's unlikely to lose early so it's working out for me

>>13555017
why do people do this the post actually makes no sense or I'm missing something?

>>13554663
Not sure what you mean either but yes I'll still take the coinflip

>>13555311
>Not sure what you mean either but yes I'll still take the coinflip
How low would the odds have to be for you not to take the bet? If I offered you 1.50 would you take it?

>There are enough people like OP in the world that this place can exist

I am ready to admit that there are lots of things about the world that I don't understand.

>>13555155
eh well has there ever been a time in history where the same number came out 2 weeks in a row?

>>13555311
I still choose to bet in a 99% chance of winning compare to coinflip with 50% chance of losing. Its a matter of preferences if you want to play a safebet or take the high risk bet.

>>13555453
good point have the winning lottery numbers ever came out twice in a row? You kind of are fucked if you pick last weeks numbers it's never happened so this is only evidence for my argument

>>13551151
Shit dude you crushed. Glad you could profit and hopefully you withdraw before you go on a mad chase to the bottom.

Always love seeing a player beat the house!

Add me on stake. Username is
Jjdjjdjms

>>13555478
It has happened multiple times see >>13555305

>>13555453
>I still choose to bet in a 99% chance of winning compare to coinflip with 50% chance of losing. Its a matter of preferences if you want to play a safebet or take the high risk bet.
Its not a matter of preference its a matter of expected value. Taking any bet where the actual probability is lower than the implied probability is going to lose you money long term. A 50% bet at odds of 2.10 is considerably better than a 96% bet at odds of 1.03.

math major here

there is a major flaw in your math which i will not tell you however you will eventually lose based on a simple law of probability

>>13546486
>>13546513
>>13546531
>>13546589
>>13546606
>>13546772
>>13546821
>>13546896
>>13546929
>>13546998
>>13547219
>>13547481
>>13547516
>>13547746
>>13547954
>>13548121
>>13548267
>>13548414
>>13548969
>>13549060
>>13549268
>>13549633
>>13549911
>>13550014
>>13551151
>>13551466
>>13551885
>>13553872
>>13554250
>>13555311
>>13555478
I have been lurking on and off for the past decade. Seen a lot of retarded people. Then there is you. You absolute brainlet.

I hope for your sake that you are just shilling your own shit game, if not then go kill yourself.

>>13555619
Thanks friend hit me up sometime

>>13555667
You sure you're a math major? Because you can't even find a way to add yourself into this conversation without sounded retarded

>>13555842
saved you for last so you can feel as special as you are. Glad to see I have a fan who was dedicated enough to put all of my greatness in one post for all to enjoy and prosper from

>>13553057
Land of the FREEEEEEE
It'll never not be funny the amount of shit you guys aren't allowed to do

>>13555971
Lol okay what do you have against America

>>13555971
Dont see anything better happening in your shithole countries

>>13548121
Get destroyed. Can’t believe you thought you were on my level.

>>13555988
>>13556010
Hahahahha kek I don't have anything against you really it's just funny as fuck. I wonder if people from the middle east can play on this site :^)

>>13556075
Okay then so what are you trying to say here and there's a dope middle eastern chick I see in chat so probably