/biz/ - Business & Finance

I'm scared OP

>>13228613
Are you scared because the Fed is looking at Germany struggling to stave off deflation even with negative Bund yields?
Or are you worried that the USA currently has a fed so incompetent it may actually be about to cut rates?
I'm sure youre scared because the only way out is to print.

Trump trump blah blah trump trump trump... nothing can be bad because trump & if you think it is then you are a kike libtard. Trump trump blah blah blah

>>13228609
The currency collapse cannot come fast enough.

>>13228638
If the Fed cuts rates I'd expect crypto to moon pretty fucking hard.

>>13228671
Trump is ZOG. We got played, white genocide will go on uninterrupted.

>>13228609
It's unironically fine for now.. But long term it's a big issue that needs to be dealt with before it gets out of hand. The biggest red flag is that the debt has increased at a faster rate during the economic expansion. The debt should be decreasing during expansions (or at the very least increasing at a decreasing rate).

>>13228685
You got played incel, I always knew he was a stupid charlatan.

>>13228743
>incel
kys

>>13228609
Couple that with
-unreported unemployment levels
-poverty levels at an all-time high for people age 18-30
- lower than ever average purchasing power without debt

You've got the perfect recipe for a new kind of depression.

>>13228609
1. your post contradicts itself, 118% is higher than 105.4%, and world war 2 ended in 1945.
2. The monetary and economic environment now is completely different, frictions in communication and information movement are vastly reduced, trade is basically more liberal than at any point in history, and the monetary situation between sovereign governments is an interconnected but free-floating race to the bottom backed by nothing but credit, i.e. their viability as a taxing entity into the future. it's a clownworld. bitcoin is money because it has the transactional properties of money, a limited supply, and cannot be shut down unless dominant computer violence beyond the known capacity of any government or multiple governments is aimed at it... everything else is credit.

>>13228905
The important factor is the debt to buying power equating we're seeing.
Credit cards are not indicative of wealth, this paradigm cannot last.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-how-capitalism-needs-reformed-ray-dalio/?published=t
People are less educated, poorer, and more likely to die sooner.

Total marketcap to gdp: As high as during the tech bubble

The Shiller P/E Ratio: As high as 1929. Anything near to or over 30= bad times

>>13228964
Anon i appreciate your input.
The debts were incurred as a result of the war, hence why the number in 1946 is higher than 1945.
Keep in mind I am not arguing for collapse, societal or otherwise.
I am making an argument that most countries typically print to get themselves out of this shit, and the US has done this historically (post war situation WAS different in that the gold standard was still a part of the monetary system).
Fed today controls rates which ultimately controls usage of money.. The frictions you're talking about are worse than they have ever been by the way.
Rent seeking is at an all time high.
Inflation historically has break out periods which can be highly lucrative for those prepared, just sparking the convo

>>13228985
imagine being the girl on the left, objectively 8/10 or some shit, but looking like a 4 when next to the 11/10 roastie next to her

>>13229049
'Cheerleader effect' lol such is life.

Smallcap companies are overindulging on cheap debt, while yield hungry investors take shitty covenants and yields up the ass.
>Oh btw, you remember what we did with shitty home loans in '08? We're doing that with shitty corporate debt now, lookup CLO's and Leveraged Loans

>>13229049
They rank about the same.

>>13229065
Thanks anon youre turning me onto something I completely forgot about this year.
The fucked thing about those securities is how quickly those calls come in asking for repayment. Majority callable I think no?

The Money Supply: Brought to you by Papa Bernanke and Mama Yellen's Wild Money-Printing Ride.

>>13228685
>If the Fed cuts rates
>If

>>13229065
https://www.nber.org/papers/w5893
Dead Right about Bernanke.
I blame the inflation targeting.
2% is a bad level and Euros are proving it.

The jews have fucked too long with God Chosen Creation, it's time for the Reckoning

>>13229090
http://www.oecd.org/corporate/Corporate-Bond-Markets-in-a-Time-of-Unconventional-Monetary-Policy.pdf

callable bond issuance increased more than two-fold, in real terms, from an annual average of USD 376 billion prior to the crisis to USD 852 billion in
the 2008-2018 period.
>Page 19

>>13228774
Have sex

I'm only 18 and heading to college in a few months. It fucking sucks to know that I'll probably be graduating into a BTFO'd economy.

>>13229176
i like where your head is at, but anon the shadow market for CDO's and Swaps on MBS products in 2007 was in in the trillions
Like 40 trillion if I remember correctly.
We're gunna need a bigger boat no?

Non-profit and household net worth to income
>spike during tech bubble
>spike during housing bubble
>spike now

>>13229190
I'm graduating right now with a degree in Finance the trick is to secure work while youre in school.
You may have to work for free but do what you can to get places.
Work around money and preferably in investments. Given how inclined you are to post about this stuff I imagine this is where you want to be so keep it up brother

>>13229212
Uni debt in states is 1.6 trilly.
over 100 million USA citizens have Auto Loans.
Credit card debt means for every dollar US citizens have they have almost $1.8 of debt

>>13229032
>>13229212
Wouldn't the counterargument here be something like "wealthy boomers have taken all the money, they invest/hoard it, of course there's more value holed up in corporations than leaks out through labor costs"?

>>13229190
Hold on tight little zoomer

>>13229258
The graphs illustrate the swings in individual (household) wealth.
The distribution year to year is almost always as a result of debt rather than growth like it used to be.
It demonstrates the booms and busts.
Boils down to we are in a boom.

>>13229217
thanks man, and to address >>13229198 , I found this on wikipedia "By the end of 2007, the CDS market had a notional value of $62.2 trillion."
However, I'm unsure of the current figure on CDS/CLO's

>>13229328
I suppose the whole point of the 'shadow' market is the unrealized components aren't disclosed frequently (probably because of zero regulation) if they get disclosed at all.

I guess we're flying blind.

not gonna bullshit you biz i need someone to send me $15 of ETH to get my funds off an exchange (they're stuck because i need $15 for min withdrawal)
can anyone help me out? will send back but unironically.

0xE3608Be8577dF3079b9e7c43D60a23134Eff4469
1DpPJqPmXFRWfSUMQifRj84jmXR2n4DaWA

>>13229040
I would also never hope for collapse, as in any true collapse scenario the amount of wealth destruction would be so great that human progress would likely be set back very far. I do see cryptocurrency as an emerging answer to the monetary problems for individual global wealth storage because of its antifragility. I don't think we are close to a real collapse. I think the system can chug along even with major rules changes like the FDIC, suspension of the gold window, and the legislative expansion of the monetary base that occurred in 2008 as a response to save the banks. All three changed the game massively, with arguably positive effects on wealth creation since their implementation but arguably negative effects on developing true systemic resilience. As this old system deals with the inability for there to be large scale wars due to nuclear weapons, I would bet that the nominal price of bitcoin will increase simply because more and more money will have to be printed and bitcoin can be owned and transported globally independent of any particular government.

>>13229367
>$15 for min withdrawal
What Jewish exchange are you using?

>>13229357
True. Interest rates were near zero from 08-15 and now they're only like 2.5%, similar to the early 2000's during subprime boom. Also, there has been a moral hazard created by the gov't bailout in '08. I believe it's probable that the shadow market in CLO's and their derivatives is flourishing, especially since there are entire floors of traders who are yield-starved and hungry for a fat bonus check.

>>13229190
And so the cycle repeats itself
At least you're aware
Use your time in college to network
When you're under the age of 21, you can approach high-status people and ask them for advice. The more you share your concern, the more they will find you a stand-out. That will help you immensely when you get out.
While you're in school, getting some work in a restaurant or private club where moneyed people go can really help.
>t. the economy took a nosedive the same month i went out looking for work in 2008

>>13229385
our world advances as a result of a financial system that relies on leverage, credit, debt...
Crypto doesn't allow for these things.
Call me when it does but until then we're stuck with USD.

>>13229418
Interest rates were low, inflation was still strong though, around 3-5% range (from 2005-2007).
Rates are low worldwide, as for the government lending, the message was clear; We are too important to fail. The sector that mitigates damage to labor, the sector that protects housing, finances construction/medicare...

It's disgusting how much the world needs a system of obligations and debt just to function.

>>13228774
>pic unrelated

>>13228743
>Everybody else is an incel but me

>>13229429
absolutely, that's why I think it will continue to chug along. there are cryptos that can be integrated for clearing and accounting purposes and whatnot but that's not the same proposition exactly, that's just a cost saving measure for banks. I'm saying that it doesn't have to be a replacement for any of those things in order to gain a lot of value, but that it will exist side by side with them and benefit in value from their systemic decline over the next several decades until there is some major event or other technology that changes everything in a way that they are no longer appealing to anyone

>>13229106
Aren't interest rates at like 0.1% what can they cut it to?

>>13229190
Maybe cry about how you cant afford stuff. Someone will give you charity because that's how the world works and you deserve it hahah

>>13229429

What if i told you... that the banks are going to back up the usd in crypto as a cop out to control all the debt saying that the nixon gold-deal was a mistake? you will be able to take loans only if you can back up your money in crypto

>he doesn't know

>>13229534
If you want to get rich off Blockchain then you need to hope Bitcoin becomes digital gold. Novogratz isn't 'wrong' to say that, he's trying to make money and he knows this is the only way of doing it; sovereign wealth that simply exists.

As for all those crypto projects, you don't own any part of that project by owning the tokens/coins.
Only securities allow for ownership.
Crypto for the sake of owning crypto is either for transfer (we use ethereum) or holding (bitcoin).

That's your moonshot babe. sucks cause we all love the tech but there just aren't many ways to get rich off the coming wave of Dapps...

>>13229560
lol we're not doing that.
JPM is right to look into transfers because it's secure/ cheap

We’re basically at war with Asia and Europe - just over financial dominance.

>>13229559
nah man, when inflation picks up and the fed cuts rates to -2% or something, I'll be leveraged like lehman, buying all the Boomer's single family homes that were foreclosed because they couldn't make their HELOC payments. The Boomer/Zoomer rent-seeking flippening is among us.

>>13229555
google negative interest rates

>>13228609
>>13228905
>>13229190
>>13229385
Why is it a truism from the literal dawn of time that every single generation is so hubristic, so narcissistic, so goddamn full of themselves that they somehow think the world which has been trundling along since for fucking ever was just waiting for them to turn the lights out. They are the Last Generation and we've all just been waiting for them to finally go into full scale apocolypse.
I got news for you junior, the world was here before you and it'll be here as you grow up, go into middle age, grow old, and die. And not a whole hell of a lot will change. There's your answer. You are not special, you are not unique, your generation is not some gift from God. You are just another cohort of shit the earth spits out every 20 years or so. You pukes need to kys

>>13229612
>he understands REAL estate
You can make it
If not this time then the next you'll be fine

>>13229633
lol doomer fuck off. Nobody here is talking about the end of the world we're talking about the end of the cycle you fucking autist. Lol the whole point of this thread is to try and get in on the fucking wealth transfer. I fucking hate poor people jesus christ.

>>13229666
CHECKED
End of world confirmed!

>>13228685
Ahahahahaha beep boop MAGA beep boop 4chan fags always so confident in ur retardation

>>13229691
it HAD to be trip 6's...

>>13228704
Republican tax cut suprise!

>>13229633
>nothing will change blah blah
Fuck off, I just want to know when cheapies are happening.
I WANT TO FINALLY OWN A HOUSE FAR AWAY FROM NIGGERS AND NORMIES I'VE WANTED THIS SINCE I WAS 10 YEARS OLD THE 2008 CRASH HAPPENED WHEN I WAS 19 AND DIDN'T HAVE CASH FOR CHEAPIES REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>13228609
We were white back then too. There's no coming back from turning brown, just look at what happened to every brown country.

>>13229646
thanks man

>>13229579
yes, I agree that Novogratz is not wrong to say that, and I have long seen btc as being not only digital gold but "the best gold", because its supply model is independent of political influence and its security model is not based in political dealings and is or is becoming decentralized. that's not because I'm against politics I just think it's a good investment for that reason much like gold. having a limited supply is only worth what the security model is worth at the current time, which is why I also like litecoin and will probably buy any proof of work coin that gets to the asic stage on a given algorithm. but bitcoin is the first real digital asset with scarcity like that and it also has the new property of not being able to be confiscated unless you are coerced into speaking 12 words, it can be brought on an airplane if you were traveling completely naked without luggage, and it can be sent across the world cheaply. that is brand new

>>13229666
>lol doomer fuck off
Nigger what? I'm literally laughing at *YOU* doomer fucks thinking the sky is falling. This entire thread is kids full of themselves thinking the world ends on their birthdate when it fucking doesn't.
>Lol the whole point of this thread is to try and get in on the fucking wealth transfer.
All in on Link
>>13229727
>I WANT TO FINALLY OWN A HOUSE FAR AWAY FROM NIGGERS AND NORMIES
You can do this literally right now. There are hundreds of thousands of homes sitting in the midwest in 95%+ white communities for sale at very reasonable prices. Personally I bought a condo in Florida at the bottom of the market in a 90% white area. Mortgage literally $150 a month, a couple miles from the beach, nice neighborhood with little coffee shops, cafes etc. Not a single fucking pawn shop, title loan, fried chicken shack, or check cashing joint in a 15 mile radius. And to top it off, I have dozens of bitcoins so I'll soon be set for good. Life is beautiful.

>>13229705
It's more that we can't keep up with the interest. We owe over 1 trillion in interest per year now. If we had done these fixes earlier we'd be fine.

>2009
>10T debt
>600b interest owed per year
>Economic expansion leads to 700b more surplus
>pay off interest and 100b principle (1% of all debt) on surplus alone

But we waited 8 more years of some mulatto fucking around so instead it's:

>2017
>20T debt
>1.2 trillion interest owed per year
>Economic expansion leads to 800b surplus
>surplus doesn't even cover interest and you owe $400bn extra for next year instead of paying off principle.

We really needed to get our shit together in 2008 but we did a total 180 of that because rich white people love self-destruction to appease their white guilt.

>>13229816
>I got mine
Good for you, faggot.
The rest of us are now speculating on an entry point once a new bottom happens.
It will happen

>>13228609
The UK is at over 300%. If they can survive at that rate we can handle ours. It does need to be worked on though.

>>13228609
Portends 1950s style greatness then?
Srsly all indicators are flashing red but other economies are even redder with EU basically out of options other than handing out free cash.

Im toying around with a major bullrun in the US market due to capital fleeing shitholes like EU & CN.

If trump cna isolate US enough and make it stronk then its good.

But if its contagion again its surely another recession.

>>13229633
Imagine being so dense you perch yourself on the soapbox and go off on a tangent trying to demolish a supposed viewpoint, when the actual point went completely over your head.

>>13230204
There hasn't been any real isolationist policy passed in decades. There's been hardly any expansion of domestic manufacturing activity. We're still way too dependent on countries like China, who now for some inexplicable reason are the only people who can manufacture components vital for our electrical infrastructure.

>>13230240
The only apocalyptic event you're ever likely to face is choking on a Tide pod. So be careful, I just don't how the world would be able to go on without you.

>>13230279
>mentioning tide pod
>2019

Thank you for proving my point.

>>13230287
>>mentioning tide pod
>>2019

>Thank you for proving my point.
Oh you crazy kids finally figured out that's a bad idea, huh? I'm proud of you. Like a dad is proud of his toddler when he takes his first poopy on his own.

>>13229816
i like your style doomer.
lol
seriously tho nice move on the mortgage

>>13228638
what has germany to do with it? please explain this in simple terms thanks

>>13230326
Day of the Reverse Mortgage soon boomer

>>13230336
Okay so here in USA (or canada lol) the government currently has positive yield bonds, which means you buy a bond (give the govt some money) and it pays you some interest over time, and then eventually pays back the bond face value. The combination of the price and interest payments equals your yield.
We have positive yields.
German bonds currently have negative yields, which means you give the government a dollar and it gives you back 98 cents in a year (or wahtver period).

This is bad because we like inflation. Inflation is growth under current monetary theory, and we stimulate growth by encouraging people to invest to constantly try and keep up with inflation (wealth destruction).

It's like the equivalent of an economy that requires swimming in order to survive, because treading water for too long will cause you to drown or something idk

>>13229601
Might be the most woke post in this entire thread. They want the petrodollar DEAD. Only so they can replace it with their own though.

>>13230382
Fukken germans kek

>>13230820

>>13230382
>This is bad because we like inflation. Inflation is growth under current monetary theory, and we stimulate growth by encouraging people to invest to constantly try and keep up with inflation (wealth destruction).
This also leads to a misallocation in the economy. People spend or invest frivolously to try to beat the increase in the money supply and grow their wealth. Jobs are not inherently good if they are useless. It's just a waste of time for everyone. Deflationary systems reallocate resources to the most productive means because otherwise it's more profitable to simply save. Inflation is consumption in the short term at the expense of the long term. Deflation is abstention in the short term for the benefit of the long term.

>>13229856
Currency collapse will make for a great culling though. Might even bring white demographics back into a much better percentage since niggers and spics are welfare dependent.

>>13229579
>As for all those crypto projects, you don't own any part of that project by owning the tokens/coins.
>Only securities allow for ownership.

What happens if the tokens/coins have utility functions that drive the projects' service?

>>13230996
Lol fine this is now a link thread.
Look Link is a little different okay, but look at BAT for example.
No reason that it's marketcap would go up.
If anything the values would be nominal USD and the blockchain BAT runs on would just be used for transfers.

>>13228609
>Debt
Who cares? This has and never had an impact on your life. This is government borrowing. The worst thing that will ever happen is a default and the world would just keep going.

>>13228985

Imagine being a millennial and thinking women, err, females, are actually, males.