/biz/ - Business & Finance

we're in the longest expansion in history with basically all assets near or having broken through all time nominal highs. Fed has stopped being aggressive. ECB still at ZERO. Japan NEGATIVE .1, Swiss bank at NEGATIVE .75. US target federal funds at 2.25-2.5% while also having the world reserve currency and most systemically important economy. The government will buy everything forever. America isn't perfect but in a relative sense it's strong.

so TL;DR we are the opposite of fucked. the economy is in the early stages of the unironic grown up golden bull run

>>13029955

>>13029968
>the golden bullrun

caused by what ? hyper inflating to sustain the massive amounts of debt ?

what is triggering this growth

>>13029990
yes but only hyperinflating assets, not consumer goods

there are two types of inflation when it comes to consumer goods. the first type is the academic definition, a general increase in price levels, and it throws a real wrench in the works for the moneyed class because it causes a lot of unneeded commotion in day to day business for everyone. this type of inflation has been replaced by the second type of inflation, which can basically be described as "towels getting thinner". this type of inflation is created by teams of well paid consultants from ivy league universities in dark rooms, using big data to figure out the optimal rate at which to make the towels thinner at the optimal rate to remain price competitive without anyone noticing. that's basically how it's going to go, but with everything, not just towels.

>>13029872
It's about to contract again.
Dalio actually pushed out his expected date a little farther, but things aren't looking good.
There's a lot of scams floating around the financial industry.
The smaller lenders, like small time banks, auto loans, and credit cards, are starting to creep into delinquency.
Student debt delinquency is creeping higher and higher.
Read some wolfstreet.com and get an idea of what's in the balance.
We are in unprecedented economic times with uncharted water.

>>13029968
Imagine believing this after equities have already been pumped to the moon with a monetary fire hose.
>>13030033
Checked. Where is that Hollow Men screenshot when you need it?
>>13030059
The song might be different every time, but the game of musical chairs will always be the same until we have sound money.

globalization and the free movement of capital as well as skilled labor arbitrage is basically fueling a global moneyed class, and eviscerating working classes in areas that can't compete on the cost of raw labor. anyone who has studied economics will know this is all very good, except for one element, the "temporary pain" that comes from such liberalization, felt by the people who are displaced by it. basically imagine every country globally moving to a similar wealth distribution. maybe good if you live in somewhere like China, where wages have skyrocketed. but bad for the US. personally, I think Trump's protectionism is actually very enlightened because the scale of the "temporary pain" to be felt in the US will be destabilizing if globalization is accelerated or not slowed down

>>13030091
My point is, sure the song is different, and the game is still the same, but we've got the latest blast break beats from Detroit playing this time and they're being remixed by the DJ in real time.
Like in the big short, when the crisis was beginning, but all the banks said they didn't have to pay out there credit swaps yet.
That's the new paradigm.

>>13030136
a big part of the new paradigm is fannie and freddie in permanent receivership and getting net value sweeped by the government regularly as a short term funding source. I'd be shocked if that ever changed. so basically mortgage credit and collateral risk has been socialized with profits and ownership being nationalized (for the bulk of the regular market anyway). If you know how to read a balance sheet and haven't checked out Fannie Mae's recently, I'd consider it your duty as an American who is trying to be well informed. It can really only make you laugh when you see it

you almost have to admire it at a certain point actually, because since it's all still taken very seriously it runs like a swiss watch at the moment despite looking like a dumpster fire on paper. I don't know where it shows up in the statistics, but if it somehow acts like an SPV for the government to hide it and contain it then even better. The US Government is smart with these things and they're competing with other governments, so it's almost a different game. That's what I really like about bitcoin though, it exists in the world and has by far the highest cost to attack (an unrealistic cost) and as long as it exists and is liquid in multiple jurisdictions' local currencies it has a use case and can therefore store value. And its supply rules are uncorrelated with anything in the real economy. So with the way things are going, as long as it continues to operate and have liquidity in multiple jurisdictions' local markets it should rise in nominal value, because global debt isn't going to be able to start going down on the path we're on.

>>13029872
We're teetering on the precipice of oblivion, and both sides of the aisle are tossing the bomb back and forth trying to be the one not holding it when it finally goes off.

The only really good thing about the global economy is that almost literally everyone else is worse off. World reserve currency is world hegemony. Until suddenly it isn't.

>>13030033
Checked. Towels getting thinner is a fucking based analogy.

>>13029955
Very well put. Everyone calling tops for all of these years have missed out on a lot of gains, sad!

Numbers wise, its golden. The fed is unironically deciding to print ourselves out of a debt crisis. But quality of life wise we are in for pain. The economy grew 3% in dollars last year, but the national debt increased twice that much, and inflation was over 4% by some estimates. Numbers wise its all rosy but prices are starting to increase. Inflation has been temporary stemmed by a global recession and debt squeeze driving demand for the dollar in the short term but that won't last forever. Now the fed is adopting QE as a normal policy to use at all times, instead of a desperate hail mary to prevent deflationary death spiral. This means the money supply, which has already quadruped in the last 10 years, will quadruple again. The US government took over 1 trillion more debt last year in a economic fake "expansion." To call the economy strong in any other terms except for a hyper inflating currency is a joke.

>>13031107
if this is true then why is gold in a bear market

>>13031138

Coming off a massive run up 10 years ago?

>>13029872
late 2019 - early 2022 = 40-80% drop in the market.

Buy gold, BTC, Yuan

Buy increasingly larger sums of stock on your way down from 20% to 80%

Once in a crisis, buy property 40 cents on the dollar, sell your now hypervalued BTCs.

Once the bleeding stops, buy as much of the S&P500 as you can, buy as you can.

As the market reverses to the mean, you will have made 300%min on the stock market, 105%min on treasury bonds, 200%min on property, 2000%min on bitcoins, and 120%min on Yuan.

Investing 33%stock, 5%bonds, 50%real estate, 5%bitcoins, 2.5%Yuan would at least triple your net worth in the span of 5 years.

That's 25%+ interest a year.

>>13029979
they might revise this

late 2019 - early 2022 = 40-80% drop in the market.

Buy gold, BTC, Yuan

Buy increasingly larger sums of stock on your way down from 20% to 80%

Once in a crisis, buy property 40 cents on the dollar, sell your now hypervalued BTCs.

Once the bleeding stops, buy as much of the S&P500 as you can, buy as you can.

As the market reverses to the mean, you will have made 300%min on the stock market, 105%min on treasury bonds, 200%min on property, 2000%min on bitcoins, and 120%min on Yuan.

Investing 33%stock, 5%bonds, 50%real estate, 5%bitcoins, 2.5%Yuan would at least tripled your net worth in the span of 5 years.

That's 25%+ interest a year.

>>13031225
4.5% in cash

Last time it was this bad was in the 2008 recession

oh look its doomer #911827
Have you guys considered killing yourselves so real adults can make money?

>>13031343

>hyper inflation right around the corner
>hey "doomer" what are you complaining about

nothing, just maybe trying to seek a realistic outlook on the economic foundation which the world revolves around, and trying to figure out what is around the corner, that is all

>>13031138
Gold has been fully capitalized forever and used more and more as an industrial metal. The market cap basically is already huge and it's profitable to milk the long established options and futures markets rather than make directional moves. Also it's a bitch to store large amounts of it.

>>13029979
>CNN

>>13031225

God I hope it goes down this way. It would be so damn based to have the Bitcoin golden bull just prior to the stock market crashing. We would all become so goddamn rich.

>>13031225
>buy yuan
Dropped. Fuck chinks and fuck jannies.

>>13030005
This

>>13029955
We're probably already in a recession. This one might be the big one.

>>13032588
it is the big one anon.

Are you ready for the apocalypse? I'm excited to see stacies starve desu

>>13031107
national debt went from 20T to 21T in the last year, i think you misspoke, even at the end of your comment you mentioned it going up 1T

and at this point we're not seeing inflation even though we're printing a ton of money... because that money is going to the wealthy and it's not circulating. money has to circulate to create inflation, so... either they gotta start giving money to the poor (which will quickly go to the rich in <2 transactions) or they gotta continue to print money to stop deflation death. it's a weird look.

It's over guys

>>13032826
women don't starve, weak men do. sorry anon. but people like you starve without society... not stacies and chads.

>>13029955
Socialism leadership would kill this usd strength. Go vote

>>13029979
>fewest since September 2017
>2017
I guess were fucked everybody

>>13030098
USA, Canada and Mexico unified would be a force to be reckoned with. The protection of the unity would soften the blow. Mexico and slightly USA are getting a lot of manufacturing back from China

>>13033866
Canada just needs to get rid of commie leadership though. Mexico leadership is unironically way ahead of Canada's

google top 10 european banks and look at their charts. If ECB doesnt raise interests those banks will soon write big fat red numbers. If ECB raises interest rates Italy is going maccaroni. We need +gdp % but the market is fucking saturated to shit. Imagine living a happy life with your gf in the next years.

>>13031334
>markets tank 10-15% unprecedented in december
>people feel negative wealth effect and don't consume like hogs

its no real surprise senpai, spending bounced right back after alongside the market

>>13033939
>spending bounced

There are no datas on consumer spending yet. Investments on financial assets have increased again true, but fear and greed index also went into greed. Dont fight it, it will happen in september 2019.

>>13029979
Gov shutdown

The ramen I really like on amazon has gone from $1.50 a pack to $3 a pack.
Doesn't help that the korean ramen industry got away with price-fixing, so it's going to keep going up.

>>13034401
post link

Be ready when the housing market table flips Q4/Q1

>>13034425
The noodles I like are the 2X Spicy for samyang, which has gone up the most because they were a limited edition. But the other korean ramens have all gone up significantly too.

https://www.courthousenews.com/jury-finds-no-conspiracy-to-fix-ramen-prices/