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12915643 No.12915643 [Reply] [Original]

Novavax: No More Hope

After another failed Phase 3 trial, Novavax (NVAX) is back to a penny stock. My previous research warned against an investment in a small biotech that constantly moved onto the next vaccine while selling share after share to fund research. The stock has no more hope, though the company will quickly attempt to move onto the next vaccine which is NanoFlu in this case.

Back in 2016, Novavax had a crucial Phase 3 trial on RSV F for Older Adults fail to meet primary endpoint targets. The RSV vaccine had met expectations in the initial phases, so the stock market was caught off guard on what was an expected easy FDA approval on anticipated strong trial results.

The stock was crushed going from $8 just prior to the release of the results to $1 before some of the recent positive results on both the RSV F vaccine for Infants via Maternal Immunization and the NanoFlu vaccine. The biggest issue in the process from that failure was the path the company took to reach this point of having Phase 3 results from another vaccine.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245796-novavax-hope

>> No.12915800

That's not why it's expensive.

t. Hospital admin and I work in the finance dept.

>> No.12915851

>>12915800
digits here is right
t. also does healthcare shit, including billing and approval

>> No.12915855
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12915855

>>12915800
Care to enlighten us?

>> No.12915902
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12915902

>>12915800
>>12915851

I appreciate your input but you have to admit that it's certainly a substantial part of it.

We pay for 70% of drug research ALONE (the cost of which went from $400 million per novel drug to $2.7 billion) and because Europe threatens to break these companies' IP and essentially steal these drugs outright they're forced to make up the difference by charging Americans more, all to continue the cycle of racist abuse against the 56%.

This Novavax shit is just an anecdote, I saw an anon shill it here a week or two ago, I hope he's okay. If Novavax were successful on the other hand the Europeans would be scrabbling to purchase it at just over "cost" like they do everything else Americans produce that's healthcare related. Instead, once again they get to sit back and watch and wait for things to work out while not spending a dime themselves. Sad!

Procedures are obviously a big factor but drugs play a role throughout the entire healthcare system. LET MY PEOPLE GO!

>> No.12915955

>>12915902
im 1/14th german

>> No.12915986

>>12915855
I was gonna turn in for the night but you got dubs so, briefly it's a feature not a bug. This is fundamentally what for profit healthcare looks like.

Also we literally pull prices out of thin air. Because we can and because we really have no choice. Up until three months ago we couldn't even see what our competitors were charging nor they us.

>>12915902
Sounds like we Amerifats should act more like Europeans on this one. Seems to be working well for them.

>> No.12916523
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>>12915986
>This is fundamentally what for profit healthcare looks like.

EU countries' healthcare systems are operated for-profit too, their income streams just come in the form of individual income tax rates you'd expect of a group of nations that have been in a constant state of total war for the past 70 years instead of the little inconsequential overcrowded Wisconsins they really are, and this is all despite opportunistically relying on American pharmaceutical R&D as it is.

>Up until three months ago we couldn't even see what our competitors were charging nor they us.

Competition-friendly transparency is a good thing, it's why the Playstation 4 cost $100 less than the Xbox One at launch.

>Sounds like we Amerifats should act more like Europeans on this one. Seems to be working well for them.

Considering that, once again, we are responsible for the lion's share of drug research that takes place across the entire planet by a large margin, saying we should do "what they do" doesn't make a lot of sense. Are these drugs better off undeveloped?

>If U.S. companies earned more revenue from foreign nations, then the American companies could spend more on R&D. This ultimately would result in new treatments and inject more competition into the U.S. drug market, leading to lower prices for American patients.

>Just consider what happened with the numerous next-generation hepatitis C medicines released in recent years. These revolutionary drugs have been shown to cure 70-99% of patients. The first medicine gained FDA approval in late 2013 and debuted with a list price of $84,000 for a full course of treatment. Over the next four years, several competing drugs flooded the market.

>Prices subsequently dropped about 70% a few years later, as manufacturers heavily discounted their cures to win market share.

http://fortune.com/2018/08/09/trump-drugs-prices-pharmaceutical-research/

>> No.12916531

>>12916523
Whoops, pic is a bit unrelated (but useful for people that talk glowingly about Europes-style taxes on one hand while demanding higher corporate tax rates on another)

>> No.12916584

>>12916523
>little inconsequential overcrowded Wisconsins
>Largest single market in the world
OK kid

>> No.12916668

>>12915643
could you summarize a bit?

are you saying that the way we do the intial testing during the first two phases is flawed, that they fraudulently substituted another vaccine for phase 3 trials, or that the FDA meddled in what would otherwise be a profitable venture?

>> No.12916688

>>12915643
your graph seems to hint at patent trolling and government protected monopolies on intellectual properties, both of which are considered by many to be government interference in the free market.

>> No.12916893

>>12916668
I'm saying that the astronomical price US firms pay to adhere to increasingly stringent FDA regulations is a burden that could either realistically be lessened (I think I'd read something about FDA approval costing $400 million when adjusted for inflation in the 70s or somewhere thereabouts rather than the $2.7 billion it does today-it's all due for an audit) or is a burden worth sharing across multiple state actors more evenly considering our firms take on a huge portion of these costs alone.

The controversy is that changing the status quo would rattle Europe's advantageous position on healthcare and would doubtless subject its citizens to yet higher taxation; to many OECD countries pharmaceuticals represent 10%-25% of their total healthcare spending, no longer being able to purchase american drugs at fifteen cents on the dollar might cause their system to become an astronomically greater burden than it already is.

https://data.oecd.org/healthres/pharmaceutical-spending.htm

>>12916688
I agree, actually. However, the average drug under current regulations takes 8+ years and billions of dollars to develop-and the only reason a lot of them ARE being developed is because of the Orphan Drug act from the 80s (?) that incentivized development of drugs that targeted relatively rare conditions with a fairly long-term monopoly that's mostly absent elsewhere. Without a monopoly the prices go WAY down, but the incentive to develop certain drugs to begin with is more or less lost as well.

>> No.12916940

>>12916893
I dunno mang, i kinna worried about the opposite problem, trials being ineffectual and snakeoil being passed off as medicine.

You shouldn't have to pay the FDA anything except the cost to administer the trials and file for a permit. The FDA should have a list of approved clinitions who administer trials, they shouldn't be administering those tests themselves, that would create a huge cost overrun.

>> No.12916962

>>12916893
I wasn't aware that we exported all that many pharmaceuticals overseas, i always thought most medicines were manufactured domestically in their own countries.

A few years back I was literally buying off Canadian pharmacies grey market to avoid the outrageous prices they were billing insurance companies for.

>> No.12916970
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>>12915902
I'm 1/64th German you yUroc*cks!

>> No.12916980

>>12916962
I have a ppo, so I always eat a portion of the cost when I get my prescription. But they were wanting 200 bucks for a bottle of amoxicillin, something which I used to be able to pick up over the counter without a prescription.

>> No.12916985

>>12916980
for about 10 bucks, which is about half what i pay with a co-pay.

>> No.12916999

>>12916893
I don't really think we NEED a whole of new drugs. we have pills to treat the most common medical conditions, outside of a few specialty anti-biotics, rare conditions, onocology, and the like, there isn't a whole lot of research that needs to be done.

>> No.12917015

>>12916999
have you heard of viro-therapy / viral onocology? They had a few setbacks in the early stages but it may be the end of cancer in our lifetime.

Already today most people die from self-inflicted illnesses, heart conditions from obesity, kidney and liver failure from drinking, lung cancer from smoking, that sort of thing.

>> No.12917056

I still haven't sold nvax

>> No.12917057

>>12917015
The new frontier of medicine is going to be things like gene therapy, (using retro-viruses to treat genetic disorders) diagnostics imaging technology, (Mass producing MRI's, CAT scans, streamlining biopsies that sort of thing), Microscale engineering for use in medical tools and procedures, (microscale heart catheters, LED colonoscopy monitors, the like)

>> No.12917092

There is no court of arbitration for international patent disputes, that I'm aware of. Unless you want to take your chances with EU or UN circus monkeys.

Basically, if they were decide not to honor our patents, the only option americans would have would be to literally take it out of their hide.

>> No.12917113

I'm sorry, I feel like we're talking at dogs ends here. Not sure if we are talking about the same thing, or similar but tangentially related topics

>> No.12917138

>>12915643
Basically if you want to make money in the american drug market, you have to secure government contracts, which means selling to insurance companies that provide insurance to state and federal employees.

You shouldn't even consider making a drug unless you have a line on an insurance conglomerate that is willing to buy it. Companies like NVAX should really be negotiating with them prior to committing to research, they could definitely ease legislative pressure and interference from federal agencies like the FDA, they have a lot of pull.

>> No.12917151

We should. I'm down to teach eurofags a lesson about exploiting our generosity. We will see how their shithole welfare states get along without American drugs and military presence. Yeah it's pretty easy to run a country when you barely need to consider healthcare and security costs.

>> No.12917173

>>12917151
Seething

>> No.12917175

>>12915643
Fucking kikes

>> No.12917182

>>12917151
yeah, but the minute we leave, the russian and chinese show up at their doorstep with an offer they can't refuse.

Next thing you know there is a wall running through the middle of Paris and their selling krocodile to school kids behind the Luve'.

>> No.12917185

>>12917182
Seething

>> No.12917238

I can't even imagine the balls you'd need to invest in targeted biotech firms without being an insider.